Predicting the Heisman Trophy: Why Penn State has the upper-hand for now
Frank Bodani
There's good reason why Penn State hasn't won a Heisman Trophy in nearly 45 years.
And why it hasn't even owned a top contender in 15.
The Nittany Lions never promoted their stars for such awards even when they were front-runner material. They rarely allowed their players to pad numbers against inferior opponents.
Their winning didn't depend on developing superlative quarterbacks — and quarterbacks usually win the Heisman.
But now comes Saquon Barkley.
Penn State might never have been blessed with such a unique talent.
He won't need extra attention this fall to stay in the race, as long as he's healthy. He's productive enough, flashy enough and dependable in all phases to be firmly placed among the preseason Heisman leaders.
Even that hasn't happened at Penn State since ...
We're not really sure.
Better yet, the Nittany Lions have two legitimate Heisman contenders when you consider quarterback Trace McSorley, though he's more of a darkhorse pick for now.
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The key for Barkley is staying in the hunt until November, when the weather begins turning and defenses begin tiring. That's when tailbacks on missions can overwhelm games and voters.
That kind of late run, a la Larry Johnson, will propel Barkley to the top. Ten or 11 victories could push him over.
Here's how I see the Heisman race beginning ...
1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, quarterback: The senior has finished in the Top Five of the voting the past two seasons. He can shred defenses with his legs as well as his arm, and this offensive line should be his best one yet.
2. Saquon Barkley, Penn State, tailback: His stock continues to soar because of his freaky combination of speed, power, vision and even leaping ability. He's also a top-shelf receiver and should benefit, too, from his best offensive line. His ability to produce the dramatic highlight is unquestioned.
3. Sam Darnold, USC, quarterback: He's the trendy candidate, considering his position, his school and the way he torched opponents down the stretch last fall — including Penn State in the Rose Bowl. His biggest hurdle may be circumstance. The Trojans break in new receivers and don't have the benefit of a bye week.
4. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, quarterback: Last year's Heisman winner returns and could well produce the same jaw-dropping numbers. But inspiring voters for a repeat will be much tougher.
5. Derrius Guice, LSU, tailback: He somehow led the SEC in rushing last year despite sharing time with star Leonard Fournette. We still don't know how dominating he can be. He will benefit from a new offensive coordinator and plenty of opportunities on the big stage.
6. Jake Browning, Washington, quarterback: No one's thrown more Pac 12 touchdown passes in a season than his 43. He returns with a loaded team after earning a national name by the end of last fall.
7. Jalen Hurts, Alabama, quarterback: He starred as a true freshman leader and came within a defensive stop of winning a national title. He will be an even better decision-maker, which could mean more effective running. Everything seems set for the SEC's Offensive Player of the Year.
8. Trace McSorley, Penn State, quarterback: The home run hitter must now nail down the intermediate pass game and become even more decisive with his legs. Improvements expected in the second year of Joe Moorhead's offense.
9. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State, quarterback: He finished in the Heisman hunt three years ago. Plus, his offense, particularly the downfield pass game, figures to get a boost with a new, top-shelf coordinator.
10. Deondre Francois, Florida State, quarterback: He could make a big run if he closes in on 4,000 passing yards this fall (3,350 last year) and is a more effective runner. His touchdown/interception ratio (20/7) shows where he's headed.
