Michigan State an early Big Ten hoops favorite as rosters take shape after NBA decisions
All of the players who are returning to Big Ten schools are known, now that the early entry deadline for the NBA draft has passed. Minus a few open scholarship spots, most of the rosters are set for next season.
Michigan State is the favorite to win the conference championship. But the decisions of players at other schools to bypass the NBA draft means the Spartans will have plenty of challengers for the title.
MSU remains co-favorite with Duke to win a national championship according to updated odds at Bovada.lv, and 12 of the Big Ten’s 14 programs are on the board. Here’s a projected order of league finish, according to the Vegas odds:
1. MSU (15-2 odds)
What to expect: It might be Tom Izzo’s deepest team and best chance at a national title since 2000, or at least 2014. Miles Bridges bypassing the NBA draft is huge, keeping Izzo’s best recruiting class together one more year. Adding Jaren Jackson Jr. – who could immediately start – and getting Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter back gives the Spartans the size they lacked last season.
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2t. Indiana (25-1)
What to expect: Archie Miller replaces Tom Crean as coach, and getting Robert Johnson to bypass the draft is a good building block. But losing three starters to the draft – OG Anunoby, James Blackmon and Thomas Bryant – makes it seem the Vegas odds are based more around name than talent depth. Top-100 freshman forward Justin Smith should get plenty of playing time right away.
2t. Michigan (25-1)
What to expect: Losing Zak Irvin, Derrick Walton and D.J. Wilson without much returning starting experience returning hurts. Getting Moe Wagner back after testing the NBA waters, along with top-100 recruits Jordan Poole and Isaiah Livers, helps offset the loss of Wilson to the draft. So does adding graduate transfer Jaaron Simmons from Ohio and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews as potentially impact backcourt players.
4t. Purdue (66-1)
What to expect: First-team All-America Caleb Swanigan, the Big Ten Player of the Year, decided to stay in the NBA draft. Isaac Haas and Vince Edwards, both of whom returned after going through the NBA process, must take on bigger roles. Junior college transfer Eden Ewing could slide into Swanigan’s spot, and a lot is expected from top-100 recruit Nojel Eastern.
4t. Wisconsin (66-1)
What to expect: A big senior class, including Nigel Hayes, departs and leaves Ethan Happ as the centerpiece for coach Greg Gard. There is not much experience beyond Happ, however, though D’Mitrick Trice and Khalil Iverson also will be counted on with a young team that adds top-100 big man Nate Reuvers.
6t. Minnesota (100-1)
What to expect: The Gophers were one of the big surprises of the Big Ten season, thanks to the backcourt tandem of Nate Mason and Amir Coffey. They also return Jordan Murphy, a trio of big men (Reggie Lynch, Eric Curry and Bakary Konate) and plenty of depth – along with higher expectations from fans for Richard Pitino and crew to challenge for a conference title.
6t. Maryland (100-1)
What to expect: Losing star Melo Trimble a year early to the NBA Draft was not much of a surprise, but the Terrapins will benefit from getting budding swingman Justin Jackson back for his sophomore year after he pulled out of the process. They also add Duke transfer Sean Obi and two top 100 freshmen in Darryl Morsell and Bruno Fernando.
8t. Illinois (150-1)
What to expect: New coach Brad Underwood remade the Illini roster by adding Wright State transfer Mark Alstork and top-100 guard Mark Smith, but Illinois also loses its top three scorers. Leron Black and Jalen Coleman-Lands will be asked to increase their production to make Underwood’s debut season a success rather than a building year.
8t. Northwestern (150-1)
What to expect: Bryant McIntosh, Scottie Lindsey and Vic Law helped the Wildcats make the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history. Coach Chris Collins returns six of his top eight players as well, but Northwestern is being displaced to Allstate Arena in Rosemont, Ill., due to construction at their on-campus facility. It adds a layer of complexity after benefiting from home-crowd energy at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston.
10. Iowa (250-1)
What to expect: Jordan Bohannon and Tyler Cook become the main threats for the Hawkeyes with the graduation of Peter Jok. Iowa will be young again, and top-100 big man Luke Garza will get a chance to play immediately. Coach Fran McCaffery’s son, Connor, also is a top-100 player but plans to redshirt in hoops and play baseball next spring.
11t. Ohio State (300-1)
What to expect: Kam Williams pulled out of the draft, but big man Trevor Thompson departed for the pros, and the Buckeyes also lost JaQuan Lyle following an off-season arrest. Keita Bates-Diop will need to complement Williams, and the Buckeyes will need top-100 big man Kaleb Wesson to immediately produce.
11t. Penn State (300-1)
What to expect: Coach Pat Chambers has assembled an athletic, young team, led by Mike Watkins, Tony Carr, Shep Garner and Julian Moore. Finding depth will be critical for the Nittany Lions to go from a scrappy opponent to an upper-division team.
13t. Nebraska (n/a)
What toexpect: Coach Tim Miles keeps feeling the brunt of attrition, graduating Tai Webster and losing four players to transfer. Glynn Watson becomes the go-to guy for the Cornhuskers.
13t. Rutgers (n/a)
What to expect: Corey Sanders surprised the Big Ten last season and helped make Rutgers competitive in coach Steve Pikiell’s debut. Sanders tested the draft and decided to return, which will help a program desperately trying to find its footing in the deep Big Ten.
Contact Chris Solari:csolari@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@chrissolari.