Couch: Breaking down MSU's 2017-18 roster, player by player

There is a chance, however minuscule, that Miles Bridges will decide to return to Michigan State for his sophomore season. The odds are better that Ben Carter is granted a sixth year of eligibility.

If you could wager on whether either is on next year’s roster, you’d parlay it and bet they’ll both be gone. The ideal roster rarely comes together in college basketball. The 2016-17 Spartans knew this as well as anyone.

The realistic MSU roster for next season ain’t half bad. Even if Bridges leaves for the NBA, as expected, and the NCAA doesn’t allow Carter another year, and if the recruiting class stands pat at two — power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. and big man Xavier Tillman — the Spartans could have the makings of a top-10 team and be a player on the national stage.

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There won’t be many teams in college basketball that wouldn’t volunteer to trade places. There shouldn’t be any debilitating weaknesses, other than perhaps backcourt depth (which likely will be addressed before the spring signing period). And it’ll still be a relatively young team that, perhaps, could have a couple-year run together.

Here’s a player-by-player look at the projected 2017-18 MSU basketball roster:

Possible starters

Cassius Winston, So., PG:  Winston has rare gifts offensively. He sees the floor on a differently plane than other players, even point guards. He creates not only with his vision, but also by probing defenses, and he can adjust on a dime. He is not the most vigorous gym rat, nor has he spent much time on his body to this point. Even with modest size and speed, Winston has the tools to become one of the great point guards in MSU history. But that’s largely up to him. Either way, next season, the offense will be his, likely about 28 minutes a game. This is his show.

Joshua Langford, So., G:  Langford averaged nearly 10 points per game during the final eight games of the season after senior Eron Harris’ injury. For the year, he knocked down almost 42 percent of his 3-point attempts. That was a team-best and a surprising aspect of Langford’s game considering his outside shot was supposedly a weakness. Most importantly, at the very end of the season, he looked like a player — willing to create and take big shots, less hesitant with his movements. The goal long-term is for Langford to become Denzel Valentine. He’s not exactly the same player. It’s not certain yet he has the same motor. But he had a better freshman season.

Matt McQuaid, Jr., G:  McQuaid hit 22 3-pointers over the season’s final nine games. More than that, he found his confidence. He was willing to shoot, to drive, to attack the rim. His sophomore season was greatly impacted by the double-hernia surgery that cost him the entire offseason. He didn’t add strength. He wasn’t able to work on his shot. His game suffered. This is an important offseason for McQuaid. What he becomes by next year is likely close to what he’ll become as a player at MSU. He’s a better defender than most folks think, he’s a good ball-handler and he’s the only pure shooter on the Spartans’ roster. He made 35 percent of his 3s this season. That number should be above 40 in 2017-18.

Jaren Jackson, Fr., PF:  Jackson is a 6-10, 225-pound, five-star 4-man from La Lumiere High School in La Porte, Indiana. The kid should be an impact player immediately. He’s long, athletic, can put the ball on the floor, sees the court well and has a decent range. He’ll play a lot. I think he’ll start. His skill set complements Nick Ward nicely. The question, like with every freshman, is the adjustment period and his handling of defensive concepts. But unlike Bridges and this year’s class, he won’t be counted on to lead the way.

Nick Ward, So., C:  If Ward takes this offseason as seriously as he took last summer, MSU could have an 18-point, 10-rebound low-post presence. Ward has the rare ability to power through defenders and finish with touch. He shoots from odd and unexpected angles. He handles double-teams well, spinning out of them or getting rid of the ball. He doesn’t yet create for his teammates out of them. That’s the next step offensively. That and adding a 17-foot jump shot that’ll make him an impossible guard. Individually, he’s not a bad defender. His ball-screen defense, though, can be rough to watch. MSU changed how it defended ball screens at the end of the season to help Ward. That wasn’t ideal. By next season, this shouldn’t be such a weakness.

Reserves

Gavin Schilling, Sr., PF/C:  MSU missed the heck out of the 6-9 Schilling this season. I don’t think he’ll ever be a guy the Spartans can throw the ball to in the post and rely on for buckets. But Tom Izzo has long said Schilling has the quickest feet laterally of any MSU big man since Andre Hutson. He’s likely to play 12 to 15 minutes a game at center and another 5 to 10 at power forward next season. His knee injury cost MSU five or more wins this year. Those wins would have produced a different NCAA tournament seed and goals. But having an athletic, veteran big man on next year’s roster helps the 2017-18 squad immensely.

Tum Tum Nairn, Sr., PG:  Nairn figures to come off the bench for 10 to 15 minutes next season as this becomes Winston’s team. That’s what Nairn’s role should be. He won’t complain. He might have been a Plan-C recruit but his influence and impact on the program have easily been a net positive. If Izzo uses Nairn and Winston together some — an effective lineup at times this season — he could play 15 to 18 minutes per game. At times, Nairn’s offensive shortcomings have limited MSU. Next season, though, having a senior with his experience and skill set as a backup point guard will be a luxury most teams won’t have.

Kyle Ahrens, Jr., G/F:  Ahrens might have redshirted this season if injuries hadn’t struck the Spartan big men. With Schilling and Carter out, the 6-5 Ahrens was forced to be Bridges backup at power forward. Ahrens, who went scoreless or didn’t play during a six-game stretch in Big Ten play, scored in eight of MSU’s final 10 games, usually playing between 5 and 10 minutes. Like McQuaid and Langford, Ahrens found confidence late in the season. Nothing illustrates this better than his pump-fake, step-in jump shot early in Sunday’s game against Kansas while Bridges was out of the game with a hip injury. As Kansas tried to pull away, Ahrens confidently buried a shot to cut the deficit to 17-14. Bridges re-entered to tie the game a couple minutes later. Ahrens’ role will change. He’ll move back to the wing, his natural position, where he’ll likely fill an important role behind McQuaid and Langford.

Kenny Goins, Jr., PF:  MSU fans might like watching Kenny Goins play again next season. His days as a makeshift center should be over. Goins is likely to play reserve minutes at power forward, 10 to 12 per game. His ability to defend stretch-4s should come in handy. In next year’s role, he’ll have good value. He did this past season, too. Just think if he wasn’t around.

Xavier Tillman, Fr., C:Tillman is a 6-8, 270-pound, four-star big fella out of Grand Rapids. Izzo thinks he can help right away. It’ll be interesting to see what his role is. If he loses weight this summer — as Ward did last summer — he has enough athletic talent to see playing time. A redshirt season doesn’t make a ton of sense, given that MSU could lose both Schilling and Ward at the end of next season — if Ward starts popping up on NBA draft boards. At the very least, Tillman is a much better option when MSU is in foul trouble than what it had this season.

Walk-ons

Conner George, So., G:  George, from Okemos, hopes at some point in his MSU career to have an on-court role with the Spartans. That’s unlikely to be next season. Right now he has one Division-I skill — he can shoot.

Greg Roy, Sr., G:  Roy is a decent athlete and a good story, but he’s unlikely to have a role beyond practice and the final minutes of lopsided games.

In MSU’s dreams

Miles Bridges, So., F:  I’d be stunned if Bridges didn’t declare for the NBA Draft, no matter how much he enjoyed his time at MSU and likes his teammates. The risk is too great, as is the NBA opportunity. If he returns, though, he’d play more on the wing and MSU would be among the preseason favorites for a national championship.

Ben Carter, Gr., PF:  Carter believes there is precedent for him receiving a sixth year. I don’t see it. He didn’t miss most of two years with an injury, which is usually what it takes. If he comes back, he’ll bolster what could be a loaded frontcourt.

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.