Couch: MSU's 20th straight NCAA tournament ticket punched - probably
EAST LANSING – Tom Izzo might have jumped the gun in his final remarks to the Breslin Center crowd after Michigan State’s 84-74 win over Wisconsin on Sunday.
But I get it. The NCAA tournament streak means that much to him. It should. Nothing separates his program from its Big Ten peers and puts it among the national elite more than 19 straight trips to the Big Dance.
“They thought they were going to take that 19 straight and they thought that they were going to take it away from us,” Izzo said, microphone in hand after the final home game of the season, “and these guys wouldn’t let it happen.”
He’s right, probably. The Spartans likely punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament for the 20th straight year Sunday. If MSU loses its next three games — at Illinois, at Maryland and then its Big Ten tournament opener — it’ll make for a nervous Selection Sunday.
But even then — with 18 wins, six against teams ranked in the RPI top 50, a sweep of Minnesota which keeps on giving, and only one quasi-bad loss to Northeastern with a solid RPI of 126 — MSU would be a tough snub in a year with a soft bubble.
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To further illustrate, KPI Sports — a results-driven metric, like the RPI, run by MSU assistant AD Kevin Pauga and also used by the selection committee — had MSU at No. 36 nationally coming into Sunday and predicted the at-large NCAA tournament bubble at about 50. That’s a lot of teams the Spartans would have to fall behind. Only 20 teams in the country have as many top 50 wins.
More over, there can’t be many more than that playing as well as MSU right now, Sunday being the second straight home game during which the Spartans looked the part of a solid tournament team peaking at the right time.
Sunday felt like a big win, like a big game, like something was accomplished. If this is indeed the win that puts MSU over the top and into the tourney, something was accomplished. Something massive.
“I’m proud, that’s the best word I can give,” Izzo later said. “Proud of the consistency. What happens from here, who knows. We’ve still got some games to win.”
For perspective, only Kansas (27 years) and Duke (21) have longer active NCAA tournament streaks. Only North Carolina (27 years from 1975-2001) and Arizona (25, 1985-2009) have ever been this consistent.
It’s as telling as the seven Final Fours under Izzo. Maybe more so.
When your program’s floor, its worst seasons, still end in an NCAA tournament appearance, you’re in rare company.
“Nobody’s kidding anybody, guys. I haven’t been able to say it: We have a shell of our team,” Izzo said. “It’s been hell on those freshmen, it’s been hard on us and we handled it. We’ve handled it. We’ve survived it. It doesn’t mean we’re done yet. It doesn’t mean we can’t accomplish some things yet. Doesn’t mean we’re over the hump. It just means we learned how to deal with some pressure.”
Izzo overstates the woeful condition of his team. Perhaps instead of “shell” he means “Schilling.” Because what this team is really missing of consequence is injured center Gavin Schilling. Schilling would have easily changed this season by at least four games by my count, possibly more. MSU would be a different team, with a different ceiling.
Sunday’s win against Wisconsin was the sort game MSU in which could have used Schilling. Nick Ward and Miles Bridges were both in foul trouble, each playing about 10 minutes less than they would have otherwise. A month ago, MSU loses this game given that dynamic. Sunday, MSU led 52-46 when Bridges joined Ward on the bench with three fouls with 13:39 remaining. When Bridges checked back in, the lead had grown to 63-53. Shortly thereafter, when Ward joined him, 65-55. The progress is taking place in real time.
This team doesn’t look like it’ll be limping into the NCAA tournament. Too much confidence. Too much improvement happening with role players. Too much development occurring with freshman point guard Cassius Winston, who took over when Ward and Bridges were out of the game.
There are more games for MSU to win. Perhaps an NCAA tournament game. Maybe two, with the right matchups. By winning Sunday, MSU can start thinking that way and stop fretting about the bubble, an “elephant in the room” Izzo brought up to his team for the first time on Feb. 2 at Nebraska. MSU thumped the Cornhuskers that day. Recognizing the moment, they played arguably their best game Sunday.
No team with 15 losses has ever reached the NCAA tournament via at-large bid. MSU can no longer get to 15 losses. More likely, they’ll be chasing 20 wins.
“Who knows what’ll happen,” Izzo said. “I’m not sure I’ll feel comfortable on anything until things happen. But we put ourselves in a position … and deserve some things.”
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.