PSU Prediction: Late airstrikes will lift Lions to title
As the college football world debates their value, the Nittany Lions prepare for one more most unexpected challenge.
As in playing in a dome against an unfamiliar team for a Big Ten Championship.
It all seems a bit daunting until you consider that nothing has really seemed to shake this team, from an excruciating failed comeback to decimating injuries to a blowout loss. Not even handling an epic upset.
Eight-straight victories later, these Penn State players and coaches talk and act like they welcome most any obstacle in their way.
Saturday, it will be a terrorizing defense unlike anything quite like they've seen.
And the Lions also may be forced to win without their star tailback, or at least a high-revving version of Saquon Barkley.
Then again, the outcome of this most evenly matched competition could well come down to who makes fewer significant mistakes.
The Lions continue to blister opponents late with a quick-strike offense and, somehow, a makeshift offensive line. The Badgers must continue pounding the ball against a team increasingly adept at suffocating it.
Here is a closer look at what could turn the battle for the Big Ten title and so much more ...
Key matchups
PSU offensive line vs. Wisconsin pass rushers: The Badgers continually mix and match their linemen and linebackers, making it difficult to discern where pressure is coming from. The ones who benefit statistically from this planned chaos are those four linebackers.
The Lions must counter by protecting Trace McSorley with young blockers who are making progress, but possibly not enough in time for this challenge.
Target No. 1 is T.J. Watt, the younger brother of NFL star J.J. Watt. He leads the Badgers with 13 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks.
Next is T.J. Edwards, who leads the team in tackles, highlighted by 8.5 behind scrimmage. Garret Dooley chips in 6.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. The fourth linebacker is Vince Biegel, who grew up working the family cranberry farm. He has five tackles for loss and three more sacks.
READ MORE: Big Ten's best on offense? Penn State's Saquon Barkley
On the hottest seats for Penn State will be sophomore offensive tackle Chasz Wright and freshman guard Connor McGovern. Wright, a converted guard, will be tested like never before
Key player
Penn State: Quarterback Trace McSorley. The weight of Penn State's prolific scoring punch grows larger all the time.
In his biggest game, he'll work behind a questionable offensive line and possibly without his star tailback.
And so McSorley must be able to elude pressure and run just enough. He has become increasingly dangerous at using his mobility to buy time to find his receivers downfield.
Wisconsin: Tailback Corey Clement. The Badgers are long-respected for their defense and offensive line — and for those bowling ball tailbacks who tend to run through opponents with deceptive speed.
Clement fits the mold at 5-foot-11 and 227 pounds. Interestingly enough, he hasn't enjoyed a breakout performance since back-to-back October games against Ohio State and Iowa, where he ripped off a combined 298 rushing yards.
The Badgers feed him the ball repeatedly, though, no matter the opponent.
The Penn State linebackers, led by Jason Cabinda inside, must set the tone early and often by filling lanes and holding Clement to short gains.
Make Wisconsin beat you with its rotating quarterbacks.
Make them try to beat you through the air.
Key stat
13: The average point total for Penn State in the fourth quarter this season — best in all of the FBS.
The Lions have excelled at halftime adjustments and running away from opponents down the stretch.
This trend showed through more than ever the past two weeks against Rutgers and Michigan State. The Lions outscored those teams by a combined 65-0 after the break.
Prediction
The Lions must be able to adjust and handle Wisconsin's pressure up front.
Patience may be the key, and McSorley and his teammates seem comfortable holding the line and waiting to strike when their opportunities finally arrive. The young quarterback must continue to protect the ball throughout, more so now than ever.
If not, the Badgers will gradually grind you down to dust.
The thing is, McSorley and offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead seem perfectly willing to scheme around any potential pitfalls, even if it means relying on backup tailbacks Andre Robinson, Miles Sanders and Mark Allen.
This night has a familiar feel: The Badgers blast down the field for an early lead that grows precarious early in the second half. The Lions will have every chance to break it open late.
Will McSorley finish the deal?
For now, it's difficult to stray from what's running hot.
Penn State 26, Wisconsin 17
Saturday's kickoff
What: No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2, 8-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers (10-2, 7-2)
When: 8:17 p.m., Saturday
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (67,000)
TV: FOX
Radio: WSBA-910 AM, WGLD-1440
The Line: Wisconsin by 2.5
THE SERIES
Wisconsin leads, 9-8
(Last four meetings)
2013: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 24
2012: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 21 (OT)
2011: Wisconsin 45, Penn State 7
2008: Penn State 45, Wisconsin 7
COACHES AT A GLANCE
Paul Chryst is delivering on the promise he built at Pitt. He has quietly dominated the Big Ten West with a 20-5 record in his first two seasons, utilizing the true Wisconsin Way. The Badgers are huge across the lines and pick apart opposing offenses with a confusing mix of fronts and alignments that surprises, then frustrates. On offense, they pound the ball as by making sure they play.
No coach is rising more quickly than James Franklin. It's clear that he is the CEO of an exemplary staff, possibly one of the most complete at Penn State since at least the mid-1990s. He's the unfailingly opportunistic leader who has his young team improving regularly during the toughest stretch of the season.
2016 STAT COMPARISON
PSU Wisconsin
36.6 Points per game 28.5
251 Pass yards per game 179.6
178.7 Rush yards per game 201.5
429.7 Total yards per game 381.1
200.5 Pass yards allowed 191.3
146.2 Rush yards allowed 100.8
346.8 Total yards allowed 292
22.8 Points allowed 13.7
1.3 Turnovers per game 1.3
1.7 Turnovers forced per game 2.1