Ranking reaction: Washington in position; plenty of intrigue in Group of 5
The decision by the College Football Playoff selection committee to rank Washington fourth in its penultimate rankings at last places the Huskies on steady postseason footing heading into this week’s Pac-12 Conference championship against No. 8 Colorado.
It had been weeks in the making, with a boost from No. 2 Ohio State’s dramatic double-overtime victory against No. 5 Michigan, which now finds its Playoff hopes on life support. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are a lock for a national semifinal.
“We talked about whether there was any team in the nation that deserved to be ranked No. 2 ahead of Ohio State,” said selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt. “After discussing it, the committee believes that one-loss Ohio State, with a win over Michigan and wins against three teams in this week’s top 10, deserves to be ranked second.”
The dialogue now shifts to a matchup of the Pac-12 against the Big Ten Conference, with Washington holding the edge in the race for the fourth spot with one weekend left in the regular season. With the Buffaloes ranked in the top 10, it’s difficult, though not necessarily impossible, to imagine a scenario where the Huskies fall out of the field with a victory.
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The Big Ten crowns its champion on Saturday night, with No. 6 Wisconsin meeting No. 7 Penn State with a potential semifinal berth on the line. Only one thing is certain: There might be room for two Big Ten teams in the field, but Ohio State already occupies one spot.
And getting two teams into the Playoff likely demands a Colorado win against the Washington. A win on Friday in the conference title game would lift the Huskies’ record to 12-1 and provide a huge and crucial boost to their overall strength of schedule.
The Huskies’ schedule has “been a concern for the committee and I would say it continues to be a concern,” Hocutt said.
“It is a very small margin of separation in the committee’s eyes between No. 4 Washington and No. 5 Michigan. I don’t think I can emphasize enough the small margin of separation the committee sees between those two teams.”
But that razor-thin margin will expand should Washington win the Pac-12. If the Huskies are No. 4 now, it’s inevitable that they will remain inside the top four with a solid victory against another team inside the top 10 of the Playoff rankings.
A win for Colorado, meanwhile, would lift the Buffaloes to 11-2 overall with victories against No. 18 Stanford, No. 20 Utah and Washington. The committee also would have the ability to compare a common foe: Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin all played and lost to Michigan, with the Buffaloes and Badgers hanging tight and the Nittany Lions losing by 39.
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And that’s why Michigan is still in the running. The committee may meet next weekend with Colorado and one of Penn State or Wisconsin standing as Power Five conference champions, but each lost to Michigan. So while in dire straits, the Wolverines’ goal of reaching the Playoff remains in play.
So Tuesday night’s ranking showed the path to filling the two national semifinals. No. 1 Alabama is in. Ohio State is in. No. 3 Clemson is in with a victory in the ACC championship game. The fourth spot will go to Washington, should the Huskies win on Friday.
But there is a deeper debate at play when it comes to the entire New Year’s Six bowl picture, and in specific for the access-bowl bid afforded the best team from the Group of Five ranks.
The debate centers on three teams. The first is No. 17 Western Michigan, which can complete a 13-0 regular season by defeating Ohio to claim the Mid-American Conference title. The Broncos are one of just two unbeaten teams in the country, joining Alabama.
The second and third teams will meet on Saturday to decide the American Athletic Conference: No. 19 Navy, 9-2 overall and winners of the league’s West Division, and Temple, 9-3 and winners of the East Division. The Midshipmen must also play rival Army on Dec. 10 before the end of the regular season.
Should Western Michigan remain undefeated, the conversation will hang on one point: Is it more impressive to go unbeaten in the MAC or to post double-digit wins in taking the AAC, by far the stronger of the two leagues?
“Wherever they put us is where they put us,” said Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck. “But me debating whether we should or not is not going to change anyone’s perspective. We understand what we have to do, and that’s the only thing we can control.”
The Broncos’ candidacy rests on a perfect record, and how the committee weighs perfection against overall résumé and strength of schedule. There’s something to be said for the former: Just seven FBS teams have gone unbeaten in the last decade. In addition, WMU can tout wins against Big Ten teams Illinois and Northwestern.
But there is an immense gap in depth and talent between the MAC and the American. The American went 3-0 against the MAC this season and 11-2 in games against fellow Group of Five teams. As a whole, the conference touts six teams with eight or more wins: Navy, Temple, South Florida, Tulsa, Houston and Memphis. In comparison, only six MAC teams reached bowl eligibility.
“I would put our top six or eight teams against anyone in the country,” AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco said. “I think strength of schedule should be a major consideration. I think our teams have distinguished themselves, and depending on our championship game, I think the committee will have a tough decision to make.”
It’s difficult to predict the final Playoff rankings come Sunday. However, it’s possible to say this with certainty: The committee would be far more impressed by a Navy win against Temple, for example, than a Western Michigan win against Ohio.
And with Navy just two spots behind the Broncos in this week’s rankings, an unblemished end to the regular season — and Army is a bowl team, remember — might be all the Midshipmen need to leapfrog to the front of the pack. An 11-2 team would hold victories against Temple, Army, Tulsa, Notre Dame, Memphis and Houston.
The Broncos would hold two more wins, two fewer losses. But it might not be enough.
“I can’t control where we are in the polls. Our team’s not focused on that, to be honest with you,” Fleck said. “You’d like to be able to sit there and say that you are the best Group of Five team out there, but that’s not for us to judge. We’re not here to state a case, we’re just here to play football.”
Contributing: Daniel Uthman
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