MSU vs. Michigan: 5 factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup with the Wolverines.

1. McDowell, Bullough, Nicholson

MSU needs its best three defensive players to each have the game of their life and, in doing so, make this Spartan defense something better than it’s been all season. MSU might be mid-youth movement, but junior defensive lineman Malik McDowell, senior middle linebacker Riley Bullough and junior safety Montae Nicholson are the Spartans’ three best defenders. Each is capable of impacting the game significantly and positively for MSU, no matter the opponent. MSU’s only semi-realistic chance to be competitive begins with these three. MSU has to convince McDowell this game is his NFL tape. If he’s dialed in and healthy and on the edge, he’s the one player whose talent supersedes any opponent. Bullough has to be active and cerebral and also a calming leader on the field. And Nicholson must be a sound last line of defense. He has near-NFL speed and has become adept at tackling in space. There are questions about the health of McDowell and Nicholson. If these two are hobbled, MSU is toast. But if these three players can give MSU oomph at all three levels of defense, maybe the MSU slows Michigan and makes this a fight.

2. Jabrill Peppers

Peppers was nightmare for MSU last season, mostly on punt and kickoff returns. He is the most dynamic athlete on a Michigan roster stacked with NFL draft picks. Peppers, a linebacker first, is the sort of weapon MSU sorely lacks right now — a game-breaker who can humble an opponent with his speed. He’s being used in all phases of the game again, and MSU can expect a dose of him on offense, as well as returns. It’s in the return game that MSU must be most careful. Because the Spartans’ only chance to be competitive is to be gritty on defense and surprising on offense. And even if all goes perfectly and MSU finds itself in a fight, Peppers can ruin it with one or two blinding run-backs. MSU simply shouldn’t kick to him.

3. Can MSU score?

The prevailing narrative is that, even if MSU’s defense somehow finds itself and slows the Wolverines, the Spartan offense doesn’t have the juice to put pressure on Michigan. MSU might not be able to run the ball for much yardage, but it has to do so 25 times to have a chance. Simply making the effort will create some level of balance – at least as the defense sees it – and allow MSU’s quarterback, likely Brian Lewerke, a snowball’s chance to move the offense. When the Spartans beat Ohio State as similarly massive underdogs in 1998, they did so in part because they rushed Sedrick Irvin 26 times for 52 yards. The yardage wasn’t much, but it kept the Buckeyes honest. Beyond a commitment to the ground game, offensive coordinator Dave Warner has to be creative and smart throughout, and playmakers R.J. Shelton, Donnie Corley, LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes have to make plays against the nation’s No. 1 defense. The Wolverines are allowing just 10 points per game. MSU has shown it can move the ball against lesser competition. But it couldn’t against Wisconsin, the closest caliber defense to the Wolverines MSU has seen.

• Couch:  A half-dozen reasons MSU might beat Michigan
• Couch counter-take:  Beating Michigan would make MSU's problems go away

4. Brian Lewerke

MSU’s redshirt freshman quarterback has made plays with his legs and his talented arm, and he's shown the potential to be a really good quarterback eventually. Lewerke is a gifted athlete who seems to be handling the moment fairly well. He hasn’t seen a defense like this, though. If he isn’t efficient and quick with his reads, he may not survive the day. If’s he’s overly skittish, he’ll be ineffective and probably turn the ball over and still may not survive the day. If senior Tyler O’Connor is at all healthy enough to go, that’s the move to start at quarterback. If not, MSU needs to hope Lewerke takes a massive leap in development from last week to this week. He’s getting better. It’s obvious. But if he couldn’t make enough throws and plays to score more than 17 points against Maryland, he’ll be lucky to lead MSU to the end zone at all against Michigan.

5. The Spartan Stadium crowd

MSU fans are afraid of what they might see at Spartan Stadium. Anecdotally, many have decided to skip this game. The question is, what does that mean for the makeup of the crowd? Any ticket sold on the secondary market — StubHub or anywhere — is going to a Michigan fan. This isn’t the year Spartan fans pony up $150 or more for this game. MSU fans selling their tickets should know they are contributing to their team’s demise this week. If you don’t want to see the game and you want a Spartan fan in your place, give the ticket away. Find a kid who will stay until the end. My sense is the stadium will be about one-third Michigan fans at the beginning. By the fourth quarter, it might feel like a road game for the Spartans. If so, the MSU faithful — spoiled the last six years — will have failed a test of loyalty in the face of adversity.

Prediction

It’s hard to imagine MSU keeping this competitive. This isn’t just a mismatch of ability, it’s a mismatch of trajectory and confidence. If MSU’s best players have their best games, especially defensively, perhaps this stays low scoring enough to feel like it’s close. If Michigan didn’t so badly want to avenge the last few seasons, or if the Spartans did one thing better than Michigan, then maybe there’d be a scenario for an upset. More likely, it’s a bloodbath. Make it: Michigan 52, MSU 10

Chris Solari's scouting report and prediction

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.