MSU at Maryland: 5 factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' Saturday night matchup with the Terrapins

1. Maryland’s QB situation

It’s unclear which quarterback Maryland will start Saturday night — senior Perry Hills or true freshman Tyrrell Pigrome. Pigrome started and struggled in last week’s 31-10 home loss to Minnesota, after Hills suffered a shoulder injury during a loss at Penn State a week earlier. Hills is the more polished player, the better passer, and he's having his best season. Pigrome is a raw passer, but he can really scoot, and that could create problems for MSU’s defense. If this were a couple years ago, starting Pigrome would mean Maryland would lose to MSU 42-7. But MSU’s defense hasn’t shown it can consistently pressure or contain quarterbacks, and that’s caused all sorts of additional problems in its secondary. MSU is probably better off facing the freshman. Probably.

2. Brian Lewerke

I’d be surprised if Lewerke doesn’t play. My gut is that he’ll start again. MSU’s redshirt freshman quarterback was terrific out of the gate last week, displaying both touch and arm strength. Even as the game wore on, he showed his arm talent — on one throw to Donnie Corley from the back of the end zone in particular. Corley wound up being out of bounds, but it was an impressive attempt and a gutsy call. On the next play, Lewerke was sacked for a safety, showing his inexperience, failing to get the ball out quickly with just five-man protection. From there, he too often fled the pocket at the first side of activity in front of him. But the potential is clearly there. Lewerke figures to be part MSU’s plan at QB against Maryland and the rest of this season. We’ll find out tonight if he’s ready to take the next step, stand in a little longer and be patient enough to go through his reads.

3. Corley on kick returns

MSU put Donnie Corley back to return kickoffs for the first time late in last week’s loss to Northwestern. He caught the ball in the end zone and took a knee on his only return. But it was an interesting move, a sign that not only are the Spartans not satisfied with their return game — they shouldn’t be — but also that they see Corley as a potential spark. He was a dynamic returner in high school, and I’ve been a bit surprised that he, or another true freshman, hasn’t been given this shot yet. MSU special teams coach Mark Snyder made it clear this week that Corley is in their plans for more returns. MSU could use someone back there who’s not only a threat to take it the distance, but can also once in a while give the offense the ball at the 35- or 40-yard line.

4. MSU’s running game

MSU ranks last in the Big Ten in rushing offense, at 136.2 yards per game, and near the bottom in yards per attempt, at 3.8. That’s a little misleading because the Spartans’ three running backs — Gerald Holmes (5.0), LJ Scott (4.6) and Madre London (4.1) – all have decent per-carry averages. The larger point, however, is that MSU’s ground game has been inconsistent — inconsistently called and inconsistently blocked. More than anything else Saturday, MSU needs to establish that it can run the football. It’ll make life so much easier for whoever is at quarterback. Maryland has decent athletes on the defensive front, but you can run on the Terrapins. Minnesota just rushed for 229 yards and 4.8 yards per attempt, a week after Penn State and Saquon Barkley rushed for 372 yards at 6 yards per carry. MSU’s offense has been efficient and occasionally punishing in the rare moments this season when it’s been called and executed with balance. If MSU can’t run against Maryland, its offensive line is in real trouble, and this season is over.

5. MSU’s confidence

Mark Dantonio talked this week about getting back to what made his program so tough to beat in recent years — its competitive streak, its edge, its fundamentals and leadership. The question is whether MSU’s players believe, deep down, they can be a good football team and make the necessary plays to win. Four straight losses can do a number on a team’s confidence, especially as MSU relies more on young players. This feels like one of those weeks where MSU either begins to find a little footing after bottoming out or the wheels come off completely. It's the swing game in what's left of MSU's season.

Prediction

MSU badly needs a win — no matter how it comes — just to feel decent about itself again. It needs a win before Michigan rolls into Spartan Stadium next week. Being away from Spartan Stadium will be good for MSU’s players. No boos from their own crowd, fewer distractions. Maryland is a banged up team — its senior quarterback (Perry Hills) and best athlete (Will Likely) are both questionable with injuries. The Terrapins looked fairly good in starting the season 4-0, including a 50-7 thumping of Purdue. They’ve looked like a rebuilding program the last two weeks, more so even than the Spartans. Make it: MSU 23, Maryland 20