FOOTBALL

Penn State prediction: Re-fueled offense will beat Gophers

Frank Bodani
fbodani@ydr.com

The Penn State defense was expected to struggle at Michigan without five starters and the entire linebacking corps.

Chris Godwin  must lift up this Penn State offense the next two weeks after a rather quiet start. The Lions' season may depend on it.

But the offense?

Penn State's new offense was suffocated from beginning to end, which rendered the entire situation hopeless. That level of failure was surprising considering the Lions possess one of the top tailbacks in the nation.

So the pressure is on now: Joe Moorhead's new attack must reload and fire back now.

Minnesota is not Michigan on defense, not even close. Minnesota has not played anyone of consequence yet this season. It has not played on the road.

The Lions still have plenty of skill talent and the thought is that a lesser opponent will provide the extra space and time to operate as needed. To become functional once more.

Of course, that will be a necessity with Penn State's sub-standard defense matched up against Minnesota's formidable running attack.

Minnesota should score repeatedly Saturday. Penn State simply has to score more.

Now, let's first take a look at the most important bullet-point items for the Nittany Lions entering this most critical test of the season.

Key matchup

PSU linebackers vs. Minnesota run game: The Gophers love to pound it on the ground and vary their attack with three tailbacks and bulldozing quarterback Mitch Leidner.

Twice already this season, Minnesota has rushed for four touchdowns and more than 200 yards in a game. Just last week, running back Shannon Brooks returned from injury to plow for 85 yards on 13 carries; Rodney Smith led the Gophers with 99 yards and Leidner added 50.

The Lions must counter with sure tackling near the line of scrimmage.

They should be helped by the return of backup linebacker Brandon Smith and added experience for true freshman linebacker Cam Brown.

Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner (7) and tailback Rodney Smith are both dynamic running threats for Minnesota. Can a beat-up Penn State defense slow them?

The dilemma is that all of these substitute linebackers are learning as they go, which means they are prone to being blocked out of plays or overrunning them. They must try to make substantial growth each week.

Key player

Penn State: Chris Godwin. He's the second-most talented player on this offense, behind Saquon Barkley. He's shown the ability to dominate games and possesses skills coveted in the NFL. He is a team-leader in his own quiet way.

But he needs to be a steadier force now more than ever. He was irrelevant for the Pitt game, broke out against Temple before struggling at Michigan. He failed to hold onto a couple of tough catches and blamed himself afterward. There is an urgency now. He and McSorley have worked together over four games and this offense must fire early and often to build confidence.

Minnesota: Quarterback Mitch Leidner makes this team go. He triggers the dominating run game, and has been known to run over a defensive back or two. He's even dropped 20 pounds to be more mobile, and he always gets the ball in the end zone when the Gophers are close. The key is to make him throw more than he wants.

And that plan should include a larger dose of defensive end Garrett Sickels. The most experienced defensive lineman and edge rusher needs to start making momentum-shifting plays. This is a game he or emerging Torrence Brown could truly help swing.

Key Stat

30: The point total Minnesota has broken in each of its first three games. Actually, the Gophers haven't scored so many points this early since 2005.

Though its three opponents are certainly suspect, the Gophers accomplished exactly what they needed. A big part of that is a perfect 14-for-14 success rate once they've reached the opponents' 25-yard line.

Leidner is a fifth-year senior quarterback adept at operating the controls. How he and his teammates attack this vulnerable defense in Beaver Stadium should well determine the outcome.

You know what you're getting from the Golden Gophers. The uncertainty is how the Lions' young linebackers like Manny Bowen will account for themselves. They must create at least a couple of turnovers. They must do what they could not at Pitt and Michigan.

Prediction

Minnesota is every bit as much a mystery as the Nittany Lions. How good are the one-dimensional Gophers, who are 3-0 without the benefit of beating a functional opponent?

Of course, that one very well-conceived dimension will torpedo the Lions' weak point. They are expected to showcase three sophomores, a true freshman and a former walk-on at linebacker. They won't shut down Minnesota and do not truly have to.

Penn State needs to counter with a capable performance on offense — which still should be the most dynamic unit on the field Saturday. McSorley should have a much-easier time spreading his passes around, which should finally free up Saquon Barkley on the ground.

Overall, the Lions must take advantage of a favorable opponent to right themselves now.

Bodani's prediction: 

Penn State 37, Minnesota 28

SATURDAY'S KICKOFF

What: Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) at Penn State (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Beaver Stadium (106,572)

TV: Big Ten Network

Radio: WSBA-910 AM, WGLD-1440

The Line: Penn State by 3

THE SERIES

Penn State leads, 8-5

(Last four meetings)

2013: Minnesota 24, Penn State 10

2010: Penn State 33, Minnesota 21

2009: Penn State 20, Minnesota 0

2006: Penn State 28, Minnesota 27 (OT)

COACHES AT A GLANCE

The spotlight is on James Franklin to re-group his team after getting pummeled in Michigan. Is this finally time for the multi-talented Barkley to break free on the ground and take over a game? The offensive line must be meaner and more efficient in opening running lanes and providing pass protection. The staff must help make this come true. 

Second-year head coach Tracy Claeys features another punishing run game at Minnesota, But will his defense survive the Big Ten well enough this fall?

Tracy Claeys has Minnesota running hard, as expected. The second-year coach did not retain offensive coordinator Matt Limegrover, who is now leading Penn State's offensive line. Talk about an intriguing reunion. The problem may be Claeys' defense. It appears to have issues and will be tested like never before Saturday. He will learn as much about his team as we learn about the Lions. 

2016 STAT COMPARISON

PSU                                                 UM

29                Points per game           39.7

237.2              Pass yards per game     228.3

101.2                Rush yards per game     201.7

338.5              Total yards per game      430

173.8               Pass yards allowed        228.7

213.8                Rush yards allowed        118.7

387.5              Total yards allowed          347.3

32.8                  Points allowed                 25 

2.5               Turnovers per game         0.67

1.5               Turnovers forced per game  1.67