Penn State preview: Michigan should overwhelm Lions

The Nittany Lions continue to make strides despite their overall ride being choppier than many expected.

It's not easy to keep a program rebuilding smoothly while missing six starters.

Even tougher when you visit the No. 4 team in the country on the road this soon.

The main goal for playing Michigan Saturday in the Big House will be to keep improving, keep mastering this new offense more thoroughly each week. Even just one or two of those injured defenders returning could seriously boost a team in need of all of the reinforcements it can find.

Could the Lions possibly pull an upset victory through all this?

Let's first take a look at the most important bullet-point items for Penn State entering its toughest test of the season.

Key matchup

PSU linebackers/secondary vs. Michigan pass game: The Lions were operating with a lot of spare parts against Temple but survived better than expected. Two of the Owls' scores were set up by gift turnovers.

This Saturday offers a much different deal.

The Wolverines possess the best receiver-tight end combination Penn State will face all fall. Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson rival the Lions' own pair of wideouts and certainly get more hype. They will be more than a handful for cornerback John Reid, safety Marcus Allen and company, which haven't provided the most sure-handed tackling so far.

Then there's Jake Butts, another senior, and one of the top tight ends in the nation. He's a first-down machine and safety blanket for Michigan's two new quarterbacks, and could be unstoppable against the Lions' new linebackers.

The hope is that Allen, senior safety Malik Golden and the corners not only lock down in coverage but also create a couple of turnovers, at least. Because they will give up big plays, too. They must counter aggressively in order to survive.

Key player

Penn State: Saquon Barkley not only provides crucial balance to this new offense, he is the reliable hammer and potential game-breaker. This, of course, would be the perfect time to finally get him going in the run game. Last November, he broke one early against the Wolverines only to be stuffed repeatedly the rest of the day. That can't happen again.

If the standard running lanes aren't open, then coordinator Joe Moorhead must quickly find ways for Barkley to impact. That wheel route for a touchdown against Pitt was one. As much as Trace McSorley and the pass game have improved, the Lions must be able to run the ball to keep Michigan's elite defensive backs honest.

Michigan: Jabrill Peppers is the most dynamic three-way player you've seen in a while. Sure, roaming all over the field at linebacker and defensive back will get him in trouble at times with coverage responsibilities. But he's a threat to change momentum at every turn. He's already piled up an astonishing 9.5 tackles for loss. He will break a punt or kickoff return if you give him the chance. And he's even a standout ballcarrier on offense.

He puts the danger in Michigan's experienced and talented lineup, and lifts it all to another level.

So the Lions must account for him at all times. You beat Michigan by finding a way to quiet him. And that will start with punter Blake Gillikin and kickoff man Joey Julius.

Key Stat

2: The only turnovers by the Michigan offense through three games and both came in the first quarter — an interception on the first play of the season and a sack-fumble early against Colorado. Not only do the Wolverines possess serious skill power, they also protect the ball. They rarely commit turnovers. They are sound as well as explosive.

To offset all of that, Penn State's defense must take chances, be aggressive and become much more opportunistic. And that approach could strain them while missing all three of their starting linebackers.

Prediction

The Wolverines are in a much superior place and it shows. They may even have All-America cornerback Jourdan Lewis back in action for the first time this season. While they still have issues on defense, they are deeper and more talented than the Lions. The only thing their offense lacks is a Saquon Barkley-type, though they counter with do-everything Peppers, who is getting early Heisman Trophy hype.

Penn State needs to score early and keep the gas pedal pressed down throughout. Thirty points probably won't be enough to win. The Lions must accompany that with forcing turnovers while cleaning up their own costly mistakes. They don't necessarily need to stop Michigan's attack, but they must be able to derail it a few times to have a shot.

It just seems like too much to expect on the road in late September.

Bodani's prediction: 

Michigan 45, Penn State 30

SATURDAY'S KICKOFF

What: Penn State Nittany Lions (2-1) at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Michigan Stadium (107,601), Ann Arbor, Michigan

TV: ABC, WHTM Channel 27

Radio: WSBA-910 AM, WGLD-1440

The Line: Michigan by 18.5

THE SERIES

Michigan leads, 12-7

(Last four meetings)

2015: Michigan 28, Penn State 16

2014: Michigan 18, Penn State 13

2013: Penn State 43, Michigan 40 (4 OT)

2010: Penn State 41, Michigan 31

COACHES AT A GLANCE

James Franklin gets another shot at his first signature win at Penn State. While the odds don't look promising, he does finally appear to have a reputable offense with star parts that should continue to improve. That could help him pull a major upset this fall or at least make things interesting. The thing is, his team probably needs more time before undertaking such a daunting road test as this one. Realistically, positive strides are probably the most important result Saturday.

Jim Harbaugh is delivering as expected. The thing is, his recruiting and talent-building probably hasn't even reached full-throttle yet. His team still has holes. But when will someone be able to exploit them thoroughly enough? Penn State desperately needs what Harbaugh was able to pluck from New Jersey this past winter: the nation's No. 1 recruit and defensive tackle, Rashan Gary. He's already making noise. 

2016 STAT COMPARISON

PSU                                                 UM

35.3                Points per game           53

276              Pass yards per game     254.3

111.7                Rush yards per game     197.7

387.8              Total yards per game      450

168.7               Pass yards allowed        156

176.3                Rush yards allowed        140

345              Total yards allowed          296

27.5                  Points allowed                 15 

2.6               Turnovers per game         0.67

2.0               Turnovers forced per game  1.3