Couch: 5 fearless predictions for MSU's football team, QB and beyond
EAST LANSING – Michigan State’s quarterback competition exists only because the coaches haven’t technically declared a starter. And because doing so before August would be counterproductive to a position group that’s better off attacking the summer on edge.
But senior Tyler O’Connor is the Spartans’ starting quarterback. It’s his to lose on Saturdays this September. And based on the public data at hand — one Saturday in April, following one incredibly poised showing in Columbus last November — he’ll be MSU’s quarterback in October.
Here are five semi-bold post-spring predictions for MSU’s football team:
This QB battle fizzles quickly
If you like drama or shiny new things, find another storyline to sink your teeth into — perhaps the jostling between junior Damion Terry and redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke to be MSU’s No. 2 quarterback. For the third straight year, that’s the position up for grabs this August.
O’Connor appears significantly ahead of everyone else for the starting gig. Check that: He’s the starter. His coaches talk about him like he’s the starter, usually unprompted, regularly giving not-so-subtle hints. If you ask anything about the quarterbacks directly or in general, “Tyler” is the name that’s brought up, followed by “the other quarterbacks.”
We again saw why on Saturday. It wasn’t just his numbers — 10 of 16 passing for 138 yards and a touchdown in limited action. It was the way the offense moved with him running it, his apparent command of it, his presence at the line of scrimmage. He behaves like a starting quarterback.
Mostly, though, it’s that first point — how the offense moves with him under center. This was Connor Cook’s earliest advantage on Andrew Maxwell, an attribute that eventually prevails. One that should have been more widely recognized sooner.
For anyone to challenge O’Connor, they’ll have to accomplish two things: make the offense go at a better pace than it does with O’Connor; and have MSU’s coaches trust them like they do O'Connor. In golf terms, O’Connor has a four-shot lead with four holes to play. And he’s striking the ball better than the rest of the field and putting with confidence.
He is the better quarterback. That’s good for MSU — that someone emerged. Coach Mark Dantonio reiterated after the spring game that the job will have to be won during games in September. That’s a product of the scars of 2013. The difference between then and now is that no one really won the job back then. The coaches finally decided Maxwell wasn’t the guy, Terry was too green, O’Connor was, ironically, untrustworthy in his on-field decisions, and therefore Cook would be their best chance. He was. But MSU got lucky.
This time, it’s obvious. O’Connor Saturday was better than any of the MSU quarterbacks in September of 2013. More good news for the Spartans, who don’t have the time they had three years ago to figure it out. After opening with Furman on Sept. 2, MSU’s next game is at Notre Dame two weeks later, before back-to-back Big Ten dates with Wisconsin and Indiana in the first year of a nine-game league schedule.
O’Connor would have to play his way out of the job during MSU’s first four games — before MSU dips back out of conference against visiting BYU on Oct. 8. If he isn’t starting that game, the Spartans have had a disastrous beginning. So if you want a championship-level season, you want O’Connor. Lucky for you, you’re going to get him.
LJ Scott rushes for 1,000 yards
Saturday’s spring game wasn’t a fair evaluation of the Spartan running backs. They didn’t run a ton and, when they did, they were running behind a line divided for the scrimmage. Still, sophomore LJ Scott stood out for the reasons he did last year — his first-step acceleration, his wiggle in a phone booth. The same reasons he was MSU’s finisher last year in a three-man backfield with Madre London and Gerald Holmes.
London and Holmes will be part of the offense this year — though so too will tailback-turned-fullback Delton Williams. But you’ll see Scott as MSU’s horse more often. Enough to reach 1,000 yards. He carried a team-high 146 times for a 699 yards in 2015. Expect 220-ish carries this season.
Josiah Price leads MSU in catches
Freshman Donnie Corley might dazzle at times, maybe catch 40 passes and perhaps be the game-breaker the Spartans hope he’ll be. Senior R.J. Shelton will probably catch 50 passes. Josiah Price will catch more. The senior tight end is poised for the season he could have had a year ago, if not for a badly sprained ankle. And this time, with a younger group of wideouts, he’ll more often be the target.
This won’t happen, however, if fellow senior tight end Jamal Lyles — with a prototypical NFL build — also has the season folks have been predicting since he stopped playing defense and starting making eye-popping grabs before he understood the offense. This is actually the better scenario for MSU, if Price and Lyles are a wicked pair at tight end, with something like 40 and 25 catches, respectively.
MSU’s LBs rival 2013 group
It’s difficult to imagine a more imposing, complementary and productive group of linebackers at the college level than MSU’s Denicos Allen, Max Bullough and Taiwan Jones in 2013.
Sixth-year senior Ed Davis, fifth-year senior Riley Bullough and sophomore Andrew Dowell — with juniors Jon Rescke and Chris Frey also able to play either outside position — have a chance to play at that level.
The plan is to have Davis, coming off of a serious knee injury, at the “money” position — the strongside spot played so famously, perfectly and disruptively by Allen three years ago — with Dowell at the “star” position on the other side, and Riley Bullough again as the quarterback of this unit in the middle.
If Davis is healthy and everything he was projected to be before last season’s injury in fall camp, a really good group becomes a special group.
The schedule gives MSU an extra win
Being at home for your most difficult games guarantees nothing — ask the 2012 Spartans. But for a team that is talented enough to win big, but young enough to squander any athletic advantage, the schedule can change a season. MSU gets Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State at home this season. There’s an extra win, maybe two, in being at Spartan Stadium for those three games. Northwestern plays in East Lansing, too (though that’s a virtual home game for MSU wherever it’s held). MSU’s conference road games — Indiana, Maryland, Illinois and Penn State — are all against second-tier, or worse, Big Ten programs.
The Spartans might not begin the season ready to play for a Big Ten championship, but if they’re ready by mid-November, there’s a decent chance they’ll still be in the hunt when Ohio State rolls into town on Nov. 19, thanks to a few kind breaks on the schedule.
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.