Wojo: Lions still with tons to prove
Allen Park — OK, let's try to figure this out. The Lions were 11-5 last season, narrowly lost a controversial playoff game, brought back nine starters to a stellar defense and return every key skill player on offense. And yet, outside expectations are considerably lower?
They're not lower at Lions headquarters, nor should they be. Jim Caldwell isn't compensating with false bravado, but certainly isn't shrinking from the fray.
The national perception, buttressed by Las Vegas odds, is that the Lions are a middlin' eight-win team. Historically for them, that's not bad. This time, it should be viewed as a slap. The Lions are still enduring slaps after losing Ndamukong Suh and not exactly raiding the free-agent fridge. It's a hard image to break, and one good season won't do it.
Caldwell knows it, and has done an excellent job restoring order and slicing through the hyperbole. As the Lions arrived at training camp Sunday, he wasn't wasting time trying to refute anything.
"Don't know, don't care, to be honest with you," Caldwell said about modest projections for his team. "I think there might have been some similar projections last year, but that's not my concern. … We expect to be — we must be — a better team than we were last year. I came in saying it's 'right now,' and we haven't changed in that regard."
When you're 11-5, that's good. When you're an 11-5 Lions team, it's too rare to judge. The Lions hadn't won that many games since 1991 and haven't reached the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 1995. They face a brutal schedule, with four prime-time showcases and a nasty opening gantlet — at San Diego, at Minnesota, home versus Denver, at Seattle.
My theory is, the Lions will end up being a better team, but won't have as fine a record. Does that mean 10-6 and squeeze into the postseason, or 9-7 or 8-8 and miss it? They'll straddle that line, and I'll gladly provide the definitive answer right now if you can tell me how many interceptions Matthew Stafford will throw.
Going into his seventh season, his second in this offense, Stafford must find the balance between being efficient and explosive. He lowered his interception total from 19 to 12, which was encouraging, but scoring dropped as well. Normally, I'd say it doesn't matter when you win 11 games, and that's exactly what Caldwell says.
Team understands
Fair enough. But they pay me for deep insight (truly, they do), and I've long said this: To progress as a team, you must, you know, show progress. Evolve. Add elements.
"We talked a lot in the spring about how the mighty teams fall, or are decent one year and end up being poor the next year," Caldwell said. "There's a lot that enters into that — being stagnant or complacent, a sense of entitlement, hubris. All those are things we have to guard against, and I think our team understands that."
If it doesn't, plenty of pointed reminders are available. The Lions need to add oomph for their low-rated running game, which is why rookie Ameer Abdullah is here, and why the offensive line was reworked with No. 1 pick Laken Tomlinson and as many as three new starters.
That's the crux of the low-key expectations, that the Lions have shuffled both lines. They lost their top three defensive tackles — Suh, Nick Fairley, C.J. Mosley — but outside of that, didn't lose much. The best move was retaining defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, who will be a head coach soon, but in the meantime gets to prove it wasn't just the Suh show.
The rest of the defense has the same chance, and relishes it. Martin Mayhew generally doesn't have trouble finding tackles, and young Caraun Reed and Tyrunn Walker will get their shot, along with veteran Haloti Ngata. The linebackers, led by DeAndre Levy and a healthy Stephen Tulloch, are solid.
Great challenge ahead
When debating whether the Lions can sustain defensive success, consider they at least have an element they've seldom possessed — a deep secondary, led by safety Glover Quin and rising star Darius Slay.
"I think it was a cumulative effort more than just Suh anchoring our defense," Levy told reporters Sunday. "Obviously he was a big part. But we can't discredit the guys that are coming in, and guys that played very well for us."
Suh's departure caused the biggest drop in Lions stock. Calvin Johnson's injuries make some analysts nervous, and last year's No. 1 pick, Eric Ebron, makes everybody nervous.
It doesn't help that the Lions play in the same division as the Super Bowl favorite Packers, and the Vikings get Adrian Peterson back. Last year, 10 of the Lions' 11 victories came against teams that finished .500 or lower, while they were 1-4 against winning teams. That raised suspicions about their legitimacy, although in the playoff game at Dallas, they showed they belonged, right up until a pass-interference penalty that magically disappeared.
To beat the better teams, the Lions need more balance — between passing and running, offense and defense, giddy highs and crushing lows.
"I think a lot of people are probably looking at us and saying, 'Aw, man, that's a daunting schedule,' " Caldwell said. "But the fact of the matter is, it's a schedule you get when you win games. We've got a great challenge ahead, but I think we have a team that's capable. I think we have a team that's hungry and still has a lot to prove, and that's what this season's all about."
Proving by improving. To be considered consistently legitimate, that's how you do it.
bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
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