Jeffrey A. Tucker

4/8/2026|Updated: 4/8/2026

It was six years ago and most nations of the world had gone into lockdown to beat back a respiratory virus. Nothing like this had ever been tried before, and this is for a reason. Every pandemic protocol recommended against such tactics. This of course included work-from-home orders and a huge disruption in normal work flows, including the forced closure of small businesses.

In the early weeks of these wild times, something unusual happened. You would go to the store and could not find toilet paper. You would go to another and it wasn’t there either. Hardly anyone actually stocks up on something that had always been available, so this was something of a shock. It came just as so much else seemed to be breaking, so it seemed in a sense like the world was falling apart.

Suddenly you were seeing toilet paper on sale for high figures on Facebook Marketplace. People were texting my phone with offers. Messages were coming in from all quarters wondering where they could get it. People were driving long distances just on a rumour that some was in stock somewhere.

Who knew just how thin the veneer of civilization truly was? People were losing their minds about what was surely a brief interruption in the availability of a product invented little more than 100 years ago, before which time people would use water or the “Farmer’s Almanac” hanging on the wall of the outhouse. Blech, but come on people!

Folks began to wonder how this had happened. The first theories involved supply chain breakages. Maybe truckers stopped showing up. Maybe we are more dependent on imports than we knew.

Or maybe bad people were stockpiling toilet paper. There were social media posts with pictures of people who had filled their entire garage with toilet paper, thus triggering genuine outrage. Stores that had toilet paper started rationing it. Or raising prices to effectively ration, thus prompting claims of gouging.

This went on for maybe two weeks of extreme deprivation and near panic. Had the forces of supply and demand broken? Was civilization utterly collapsing with this just as a first sign?

The actual explanation is both much simpler and more interesting. As it turns out, the workplace is where most people find the need for toilet paper. Workplace rolls are typically much different. They are industrial-sized rolls using machines wholly unlike anything one would use at home. They also use cheaper-quality paper.

But with millions suddenly working from home and avoiding the office altogether, the demand for workplace commercial varieties of toilet paper collapsed. Warehouses were stuffed with it but demand was nowhere in sight. Conversely, the demand for vast quantities of home use soared even as stay-at-home people decided to stock up. Experience suggests that households staying home will use about 40 percent more toilet paper of the type specifically manufactured for that purpose.

Most stores keep just enough to match supply and demand. Now we had a market shock. Even manufacturers had not prepared and suddenly faced a demand that they could not meet under normal production patterns. They certainly had not anticipated this.

The result was exactly as we saw. The markets had not broken. They were working entirely as they should. Manufacturers retooled and responded. Retailers rushed to stock up. In a few weeks, the panic died down and a new equilibrium was established.

What does this event teach us about economics? Everything. Higher demand and fixed supply drive shortages and higher prices. Higher prices with a premium over costs of production calls forth increased supply. This happens not instantly but in time, as fast as possible so long as the market is working.

Which is precisely why we need markets always to work. This was an unusual and dramatic change but actually the market as a driving force of production decisions operated with great elan and beauty.

As Adam Smith would say, it was almost like an invisible hand was in control. No one needed to know the names of the people running the paper mills and give them a call. We are all only consumers of the product. The prices alone do the work to nudge the producers and retailers in the right direction.

Prices are the signs and symbols of the dynamics of human life itself, instructing and revealing the secrets of the material world to entrepreneurs and managers.

Many societies in history have attempted to replace prices and markets with plans and commands. It works until there is a change in conditions. Here’s the rub: there is always change. Every day, every minute, there is change. The point of the institution of markets is to investigate and instantiate that change in signs and symbols to poke and nudge producers about the right path forward.

What seemed to many to be a major example of markets having broken was actually the opposite. It revealed how markets work brilliantly. Even the most extreme exogenous shock that no one anticipated only caused a fortnight-long disruption in a good that society had decided was essential to human well-being.

I highly regret what our central managers of the microbial kingdom did to us in those days. They are the villains in this story. The free market, on the other hand, is the hero. It adapted and served the human family with essential goods, not immediately but as quickly as humanly possible.

This is the real story of the great toilet-paper shortage of 2020. So many people say it as a failure of capitalistic forces when, in the instance of this product, really it was one of its greatest victories.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/the-great-toilet-paper-shortage-6009290?ea_src=frontpage&ea_med=section-1

Source

      

Sinomax is consolidating manufacturing into its Tennessee facility. Photo courtesy of Sinomax.

Sinomax consolidates 2 domestic production facilities into 1 in Tennessee

Sheila Long O’Mara //Executive Editor, Furniture Today//April 2, 2026

PHOENIX – Foam bedding producer Sinomax is consolidating its domestic manufacturing operations into its Tennessee facility, a move that will eliminate 89 manufacturing jobs at its location here, according to the company and a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filing.

The company said it is shifting U.S. production to its 1-million-square-foot LaVergne, Tenn., plant as part of a broader effort to improve efficiency and streamline operations.

The transition impacts about 89 employees working in manufacturing roles in Phoenix. The company said it will work with affected employees over the coming month to assist with their transition to new employment opportunities.

Sinomax cited operational challenges in Arizona as a key factor in the decision, particularly difficulties securing permits tied to foam pouring, a key component of its manufacturing process.

“Because of these issues, we cannot consider this location to be a long-term strategic investment in manufacturing,” the company said in a statement.

While manufacturing will cease in Phoenix, the company said the facility, opened in 2021, will continue to serve as a distribution hub for the foreseeable future.

“Although we regret this action had to be taken, we believe it is in the best interest of the health and long-term growth of the organization,” the statement said.

Sinomax’s LaVergne, Tenn., facility opened in 2017 and is the company’s first U.S. factory.

https://www.furnituretoday.com/bedding-manufacturers/sinomax-consolidates-2-domestic-production-facilities-into-1-in-tennessee

Source

      

Sheila Long O’Mara //Executive Editor, Furniture Today//April 3, 2026

At A Glance

• Carpenter Co reports double-digit foam price increases and allocations
• FXI and Future Foam announce 12% to 18% price increases with supply cuts
• Manufacturers weigh surcharges amid foam cost increases

HIGH POINT – A fast-moving disruption in the global chemical supply chain is triggering sharp increases in foam costs and tightening allocations across the bedding and upholstery categories, setting the stage for higher retail prices and added pressure on an already strained home furnishings market.

Suppliers are implementing double-digit price increases – in some cases exceeding 20% – while limiting order volumes, creating a dual challenge of rising costs and constrained supply that executives say is unlike recent disruptions.

“It’s not just a North America issue; it’s a global problem,” said Michael Faus, senior vice president of Carpenter Co., the industry’s largest foam producer, noting that unlike prior disruptions such as the 2021 Texas freeze, suppliers today cannot simply source materials from other regions. “Back then, you could go outside the U.S. and bring in a spot buy. In this case, Asia, Europe and Mexico are all dealing with the same issues.”

At the center of the disruption is a shortage of propylene oxide, a critical feedstock used to produce polyols, which in turn are essential to polyurethane foam. Faus said a recent fire at a major Texas chemical plant significantly curtailed supply, creating a bottleneck that is rippling across the entire value chain.

Beyond the plant outages, executives point to geopolitical instability – including the ongoing war with Iran and tensions in the Middle East – as a key driver of rising input costs, which also impact textiles, yarn, steel and other components.  Because foam chemicals are petroleum derivatives, increases in crude oil and fuel prices are directly impacting the cost of producing key chemicals like propylene oxide, polyols and isocyanates.

The impact is being felt across the entire cost structure, from raw materials to freight to plastic packaging to polyester thread. Rising fuel prices are increasing transportation costs, while higher energy prices are adding pressure at every stage of chemical production, further tightening an already constrained global supply chain.

“You can have all the TDI you need, but about 60% of the chemistry behind polyurethane depends on propylene oxide,” Faus said. “When that gets disrupted, it impacts everything.”

That constraint – combined with outages at major global chemical producers and rising input costs for energy, freight and raw materials such as benzene and natural gas – is driving multiple rounds of price increases. Carpenter implemented increases in early April and is preparing another round for May, which Faus expects to be in the double digits.

“The reality is, pricing is going up, and there’s another increase coming,” he said.

At the same time, supply remains constrained. Carpenter has implemented allocations and is working hard to manage them across its customer base. “We’re trying to keep allocations steady and consistent,” Faus said.

Carpenter isn’t alone in the price hikes or the allocations, limits on historical purchasing levels.

Suppliers have responded with multiple rounds of increases and allocation policies. FXI notified customers via letters received by Furniture Today of an 18% price increase effective mid-April alongside supply reductions, while Future Foam announced – also via emailed letters received by Furniture Today – a 12% increase with another, larger adjustment expected in early May. Vertically integrated 3Z Brands sent a similar notice to foam customers that conventional polyurethane foam would increase 22% and specialty foam products would jump 8% as of April 15.

Effects are being felt

Manufacturing executives across the industry, including a handful who would only speak on background, say the ripple effects are being felt immediately, with foam producers moving quickly to adjust pricing and control supply.

Increases, manufacturers say, are moving through the system at an unprecedented pace. Those constraints are being reinforced by force majeure declarations tied to shortages of key inputs, as chemical suppliers struggle to meet demand following the disruption in propylene oxide production.

The result is a supply chain shock that is cascading downstream – and one that manufacturers say cannot be absorbed.

For mattress and upholstery manufacturers, foam represents one of the largest component costs, leaving little room to offset increases. Several executives said retail prices on mattresses could rise by $100 or more in the near term, with overall product costs climbing meaningfully across categories.

Nick Bates, president and CEO of Spring Air International, said his company is already preparing to implement surcharges on orders to manage the volatility. “We’re looking at 12% to 18% increases now, and potentially 30% in May,” he said. “We’ll track it with a surcharge because of how fluid this is. No manufacturer is going to eat that; it’s going to show up at retail.”

At the same time, allocations are limiting manufacturers’ ability to grow production or support new business, creating additional friction at a time when demand remains soft.

While demand has softened compared with the pandemic-era surge – a factor Faus described as a “bit of a silver lining” – he emphasized that the current environment remains highly challenging, particularly as rising costs flow downstream to manufacturers and retailers already contending with weak consumer demand.

“This impacts everybody,” he said. “Most retail is struggling, and even some of the luxury segment is being affected. Now you layer on higher costs, and it puts even more pressure on the finished goods.”

Bob Naboicheck, CEO of Gold Bond, said the increases are coming at a particularly difficult moment for both manufacturers and retailers already contending with higher energy and freight costs.

“It’s a horrible time because the cost of energy is so high and chemicals are so high,” he said. “We’ll have to raise prices – probably around 8% on average – because we just can’t absorb it.”

While many executives view the increases as a necessary response to real cost pressures, others expressed skepticism about how quickly and how broadly pricing is moving higher.

“It feels opportunistic,” Bates said. “Every time something like this happens, prices go up quickly, but I’ve never seen a letter saying they’re coming back down.” He said suppliers are saying once the shortages clear pricing will stabilize.

“I’ll believe it when I see it, and I hope they remain true to their word,” he said.

Past comparisons, future expectations

Not all suppliers are reacting in the same way. Vertically integrated manufacturers with internal foam production capabilities say they are working to manage costs more deliberately.

“I believe the cost pressures are real,” said Kyle Robertson, chief operating officer of Mlily USA. “But our goal is to approach any changes thoughtfully. Because we control our foam pouring, we can take a more intentional approach rather than reacting too quickly.”

The current situation has drawn comparisons to past supply shocks, including Hurricane Katrina and the 2021 winter freeze in Texas. But executives say this disruption is more complex because it is global in scope and tied to multiple factors, including geopolitical instability, chemical plant outages and rising energy costs.

“This is about as close as it gets to Katrina, but it’s different,” Faus said. “This is more of a macro challenge.”

Looking ahead, industry leaders expect supply conditions to remain volatile in the near term. If domestic propylene oxide production resumes by early summer, Faus said conditions could begin to ease within 60 to 90 days. However, pricing pressure is expected to linger longer as elevated input costs work their way through the system.

“From a supply standpoint, we’re probably looking at 60 to 90 days of choppy waters,” Faus said. “But from a cost perspective, this will last longer than that.”

https://www.furnituretoday.com/bedding-manufacturers/foam-prices-are-on-the-rise-what-does-that-mean-for-mattresses-upholstery/?cm_mmc=Act-On%20Software–email–Foam%20prices%20are%20on%20the%20rise.%20What%20does%20that%20mean%20for%20mattresses%20upholstery-_-Foam%20prices%20are%20on%20the%20rise.%20What%20does%20that%20mean%20for%20mattresses%20upholstery&ActOnUniqueID=HFD638689

Source

      

Mar 31, 2026, 3:45 PM ETDow Inc. (DOW) Stock, ARMCO StockBy: Rob Williams, SA News Editor

A major petrochemical facility in Saudi Arabia operated by a partnership between Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) and Dow (DOW) temporarily stopped production, underscoring how escalating tensions in the Middle East are straining industrial activity and supply chains.

Sadara Chemical Co. confirmed that operations at the complex have been paused, though it didn’t provide a timeline for restarting production, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. The company said any resumption will depend on both domestic conditions and broader international developments.

The shutdown highlights the growing impact of the Iran conflict on energy infrastructure across the region. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy trade that typically carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, remains largely obstructed, complicating exports.

Saudi Arabia has already reduced crude output, and alternative logistics are being stretched. A pipeline network connecting eastern production hubs to ports on the Red Sea is reportedly operating at maximum capacity, providing a partial workaround for shipments.

The Sadara complex, a roughly $20 billion investment, is designed to produce about 3 million metric tons of plastics and specialty chemicals annually. Saudi Aramco has previously positioned the facility as a cornerstone of its strategy to diversify revenue by converting crude oil into higher-value products.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4570899-saudi-aramco-dow-jv-suspends-chemical-output-amid-regional-disruptions?mailingid=44996798&messageid=2900&position=rta_news_bankr_hysacopy_t2_seethehighest_main_2_textlink&serial=44996798.1161&source=email_2900

Source

      

Chemical Grade Propylene is $0.465/lb in March 2026. Up 10cpp from February.

Source

      

https://www.stepan.com/content/stepan-dot-com/en/news-events/pricing-announcements.html

Source

      

FreightWaves Staff

· Sunday, March 22, 2026

The freight market momentum is building at a rapid clip. National dry van spot rates — tracked via the SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI.USA), the 7-day moving average of booked rates including fuel — have broken out to a new cycle high of $2.89 per mile. This represents the strongest level since 2022 and confirms the market’s shift toward carriers is gaining real traction.

Chart: SONAR National Truckload Rate Index (NTI.USA) GoSONAR.com

Even more telling: rates jumped $0.12 per mile in the past week alone. That’s a sharp weekly gain that underscores accelerating tightness and carrier pricing power. Spot rates have now recaptured roughly $0.50–$0.60 per mile net of fuel over recent months, climbing from the low $2.00s that defined much of 2023–2024. We’re witnessing 20–25% year-over-year recovery in key lanes and metrics, with volumes holding at multi-year highs reminiscent of late 2022.

This isn’t isolated noise — it’s driven by fundamentals. The return of industrial demand remains the core engine, with stronger manufacturing signals, flatbed activity, and overall domestic freight resilience putting sustained pressure on a shrunken truckload supply. Multi-year carrier attrition (exits, driver regulations, and structural challenges) has left capacity thin, making the market highly responsive to any demand pickup. National tender rejection rates sit stubbornly in the low-to-mid teens (around 13–14% recently), with the Midwest still leading above 18% and tightness now spreading more broadly.

Seasonal layers are piling on:

• Produce season is ramping in major growing regions.
• Construction is accelerating as weather improves.
• Gardening and home improvement demand is building.
• Beverage season is gearing up for warmer months.

These verticals compound the industrial rebound, further squeezing available trucks.

The West Coast awakening adds a powerful pull. Chinese New Year landed later this year (February 17, 2026, vs. earlier in prior cycles), prolonging the post-CNY slowdown and keeping Southern California unusually loose into early March (outbound rejections below 5%). But the rebound is hitting hard now: inbound containers are surging, outbound tenders are recovering, and rejections are set to rise meaningfully.

This creates a classic “magnet” for capacity. Long-haul carriers chase West-to-East port loads for their superior length of haul (1,500–2,000+ miles per move) versus shorter eastern runs that demand multiple loads for equivalent paid miles. As trucks reposition westward from Midwest/Southeast corridors (along I-35 and parallels) to capture higher-paying outbound freight via I-20 and I-40, interior markets face no relief — expect even tighter conditions back east. The Midwest’s industrial strength and elevated rejections mean any capacity drain will intensify pressure, not ease it.

Broader indicators align:

• Tender rejection rates remain high nationally, with seasonal builds accelerating the spread.
• Dry van spot rates continue rising on resilient volumes and persistent constraints.
• Ocean bookings are starting to recover sharply from Chinese New Year

The bottom line: Spring 2026 is igniting hotter and earlier than recent years. The $2.89 cycle high — fueled by a $0.12 weekly jump — reflects tightening capacity, resurgent industrial demand, seasonal verticals firing up, and the delayed-but-powerful post-CNY import surge creating synchronized tightness. Shippers unprepared for higher costs are under immediate strain, with routing guides tested early. Carriers positioned for West Coast outbound, industrial, and seasonal lanes are capturing the gains as capacity reallocates — but back east, conditions are set to tighten further as carriers shift their focus towards the West to East longhaul.

Monitor SONAR outbound rejections and spot rates from Southern California over the next 2–4 weeks, alongside Midwest/Southeast trends. The speed of this spread will show how broad and sustained the impact becomes.

The spring shipping season is just getting started — and it’s going to be a hot one.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/national-trucking-capacity-is-about-to-tighten-significantly?oly_enc_id=7798A6382167C2R

Source

      

March 20, 2026 1 min read

On March 19, 2026, BorsodChem announced a price increase of €500/MT for all MDI products, effective immediately or as contract terms allow. The price adjustment is necessitated by recent developments in the Middle East, which have caused sharp increases in European natural gas and other raw material costs. Despite the company’s efforts to manage this situation responsibly, it is unable to absorb the escalating costs.

https://www.pudaily.com/Home/NewsDetails/63422

Source

      

March 20, 2026 3 min read

With less than two weeks remaining before the formal cancellation of the 13% export VAT rebate on April 1, 2026, China’s polyether polyol market has already entered a phase of pronounced structural repricing. Although the policy has yet to take effect, the majority of Chinese suppliers have proactively adjusted export offers to incorporate the anticipated cost impact. Current market behavior indicates that FOB quotations are now widely inclusive of the full 13% rebate removal, effectively passing through the policy impact downstream ahead of implementation.

Logistics Uncertainty Drives Shift Toward “Non-Rebate” Pricing

The primary driver behind this early repricing lies in widespread uncertainty surrounding shipment timelines and customs clearance. Ongoing global logistics disruptions and vessel tightness have raised concerns over whether recently booked cargoes can complete export clearance before the April 1 deadline. Under the policy framework, only shipments cleared prior to implementation remain eligible for the rebate, while those cleared afterward will not.

To mitigate the financial risks associated with timing mismatches, suppliers are increasingly adopting a more conservative pricing approach, standardizing export offers on a non-rebate basis. While a limited number of suppliers continue to provide rebate-inclusive pricing (i.e., without the 13% adjustment), such offers are rapidly diminishing and are expected to disappear in the near term. As a result, the market has effectively transitioned into a new pricing regime ahead of schedule, with most transactions now concluded at elevated, adjusted price levels.

Stable Domestic Pricing Highlights Structural Shift in Export Mechanism

In contrast to the evolving export pricing landscape, China’s domestic polyether polyol market remains largely stable. Domestic prices inherently include the 13% VAT and are not directly impacted by the rebate cancellation policy. As such, the policy primarily alters export pricing mechanisms rather than underlying production costs.

Against this backdrop, domestic market prices serve as a key benchmark for assessing export cost positioning.

Table: Indicative FOB China Export Prices and Domestic Market Levels

Note: FOB prices are indicative offers from multiple suppliers across different regions in China, on drum basis. DEL China prices refer to East China region, on bulk basis.

Buyer Strategy Shifts Toward Execution Certainty

Chinese suppliers are actively raising export prices ahead of the April 1 policy change, effectively establishing a higher baseline for upcoming negotiations. Amid persistent logistics constraints and vessel tightness, the likelihood of securing pre-deadline customs clearance remains uncertain, accelerating the withdrawal of rebate-inclusive offers.

For buyers, procurement strategies are increasingly driven by execution visibility. While shipments cleared before the policy takes effect may still offer short-term cost advantages, the risks associated with timing uncertainty remain significant. As a result, decision-making is shifting toward prioritizing supply assurance over opportunistic cost savings.

Regional Competitive Dynamics: China’s Dominance Remains Intact

In the near term, the price competitiveness of Chinese polyether polyols in regional markets is likely to face some pressure, as margin compression encourages suppliers to adopt more disciplined pricing and sales strategies. At the same time, producers in other regions—particularly Europe—may attempt to expand their presence in import-dependent markets such as India and Southeast Asia.

However, elevated energy and feedstock costs continue to constrain their ability to capitalize on this opportunity. Given China’s scale, production capacity, and entrenched market share, substitution risks remain limited. As such, regional markets are expected to remain structurally reliant on Chinese supply in the near term.

Overall, the market is entering a phase of structurally firmer pricing. Procurement strategies are increasingly shifting away from short-term cost optimization toward a stronger emphasis on execution certainty and supply security, reflecting a more cautious and risk-aware market environment.

https://www.pudaily.com/Home/NewsDetails/63456

Source

      

ByLiam Mo and Ryan Woo

March 22 2026 – 8:00am

China has faced tensions with major trading partners over its record $A1.7 trillion trade surplus. ‌ Photo: EPA PHOTO

Chinese Premier Li Qiang has pledged to further ‌open up the economy and fully implement national treatment for foreign enterprises ‌as the country seeks to reassure the outside world amid rising global trade ‌tensions.

China will import more high-quality foreign goods and work with all parties to promote optimised and balanced trade development ‌and expand the global trade pie, Li told the China Development Forum in Beijing, ‌state media ‌reported on Sunday.

The annual ⁠two-day forum, which concludes on Monday, allows Beijing to lay out its economic vision and investment opportunities to foreign business leaders, Chinese officials, economists and academics.

This year’s gathering comes as the world’s second-largest economy faces rising tensions with major trading partners over 2025’s record $US1.2 ($A1.7) trillion trade surplus. ‌

Premier Li Qiang says China is committed to being a “harbour of ​stability” for the world economy. (EPA PHOTO)

Challenges for Beijing are aplenty, including deflecting concerns from an increasing number of global capitals about China’s trade practices and overcapacity, ‌as well as ‌their overreliance on key Chinese ⁠products.

While Li’s speech did not appear to directly mention the surplus, his pledges indicate an awareness ​that the issue could disrupt international relations at a time when China has reached a temporary truce with the US on trade. 

US President Donald Trump last week postponed a trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping due to the Iran war, delaying an effort to ease tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

In a separate speech at the forum, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng also sought to alleviate concerns surrounding the trade surplus.

“Analysing global economic imbalances requires ⁠looking not only at trade in goods but also services, and not only at ‌the current account ​but also the financial account,” Pan said, according to a transcript of his speech published by the People’s Bank of China, adding that China is the ​country with the largest ‌goods surplus but also the largest services deficit.

China has no need and no intention to gain trade competitive advantage through currency depreciation, Pan said.

Senior executives ​attending include those from Apple, Samsung Electronics, Volkswagen, chipmaker Broadcom Inc, industrial conglomerate Siemens, chemical producer BASF and pharmaceutical firm Novartis.

There were no ​Japanese ​company executives on the guest list on the forum’s ‌website.

said ‌foreign firms would be treated in the same way as domestic ones, allowing enterprises from all countries to develop with confidence and realise their ambitions in China.

In a separate meeting, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao told business leaders from a US pharmaceutical trade group and executives from five major multinational drug companies that China would strengthen intellectual property protection and improve policy transparency.

Australian Associated Press

https://www.braidwoodtimes.com.au/story/9204553/china-vows-more-open-economy-in-bid-to-boost-confidence

Source