Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Gold, Geopolitics, and Volatility: Insights from Joe Cavatoni

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, gold continues to demonstrate both its resilience and its complexity as a financial asset.

In a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey spoke with Joe Cavatoni, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/author/joseph-cavatoni"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Market Strategist for North America at the World Gold Council, to unpack gold’s behavior amid the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Recorded against the backdrop of a potential ceasefire and volatile global headlines, the discussion explored gold’s recent price movements, investor behavior, and the evolving role of the metal in modern portfolios.

(Interview Starts Around 6:35 Mark)

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Gold’s “Unexpected” Behavior Was Actually Expected

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Despite widespread confusion among investors, Cavatoni emphasized that gold has behaved largely as expected during the conflict. While many questioned why gold appeared to “tank” during a geopolitical crisis, he explained that the real anomaly occurred earlier in the year.

Gold surged roughly 30% in January to near-record levels around $5,500, driven largely by momentum and speculative activity. This was followed by a logical correction of about 20%, setting the stage for subsequent volatility.

When the Iran conflict escalated, gold initially reacted as a classic safe-haven asset, spiking https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/04/war-headlines-shook-prices-but-the-bigger-silver-story-is-still-intact-004813";>approximately 3–5% in a single day. However, as markets began assessing the broader implications, particularly the impact of oil shocks on global economies, gold retreated. Investors shifted into a “get-to-cash” mindset, selling assets, including gold, to meet liquidity needs and margin calls.

Cavatoni noted that gold’s decline to around $4,100–$4,200 reflected both earlier profit-taking and this liquidity-driven selling. As geopolitical tensions eased with ceasefire discussions, gold began climbing again, resuming its longer-term upward trajectory.

Safe Haven Doesn’t Mean “Never Sold”

A key takeaway from the discussion is that gold’s role as a safe haven includes being a source of liquidity. Investors often misunderstand this dynamic, expecting gold to rise continuously during crises.

Cavatoni explained that during periods of stress, investors frequently sell gold precisely because it is a reliable store of value. This behavior was evident not only among private investors but also at the institutional level.

Countries like Turkey reportedly liquidated portions of their gold reserves to manage economic shocks, while Poland explored using profits from its expanding gold holdings to support government spending. These actions highlight gold’s dual function as both a defensive asset and a financial resource in times of need.

The Era of “Regime Uncertainty” and Rising Volatility

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The conversation also addressed what Maharrey described as “regime uncertainty,” referring to unpredictable policy shifts and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/09/gold-jobs-and-the-story-behind-frances-move-004823";>geopolitical developments. Cavatoni agreed that unpredictability is now a defining feature of the market landscape.

He emphasized that investors should expect sustained volatility across all asset classes, including gold. Contrary to its historical reputation as a “boring” asset, gold now trades within wider price ranges and is increasingly central to both institutional and retail portfolios.

Despite short-term fluctuations, Cavatoni maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He suggested that gold could deliver annual gains in the range of 10% to 20%, with potential upside as high as 30% under current macroeconomic conditions. As of early April, gold was already up approximately 8–9% for the year.

ETF Flows Reveal Diverging Global Strategies

Gold-backed ETFs provided another lens into investor behavior. While North American funds experienced notable outflows following the January peak, Asian markets showed continued inflows through much of the first quarter.

Cavatoni attributed this divergence to differing investment approaches. In North America, ETFs such as GLD and IAU are often used as tactical trading instruments, leading to more pronounced inflows and outflows.

In contrast, Asian investors are https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/09/etfs-dumped-gold-in-march-except-in-asia-004825";>increasingly adopting ETFs as long-term portfolio holdings, reflecting a structural shift away from physical gold and jewelry toward financial instruments.

He also noted that ETFs represent less than 10% of the overall gold investment market, underscoring their importance as a transparent but limited indicator of broader trends.

The Rising Influence of Eastern Markets

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A major theme in the episode was the growing influence of Eastern investors on gold demand. Cavatoni highlighted a “decoupling” between gold prices and traditional drivers like U.S. interest rates and the dollar, largely due to increased demand from Asia.

He explained that cultural and economic factors shape this demand. In many Asian markets, gold is viewed as a generational store of wealth and a hedge against currency instability. This contrasts with the U.S., where investors often rely more heavily on financial instruments like Treasuries and equities.

At the same time, European investors have remained relatively quiet, though Cavatoni expects this to change as fiscal pressures, rising deficits, and currency concerns intensify across the region.

Modeling Markets in an Unpredictable World

From a professional standpoint, Cavatoni acknowledged that the current environment poses significant challenges for market modeling. Traditional frameworks struggle to fully capture the momentum-driven and globally interconnected nature of today’s gold market.

He stressed the importance of continuously recalibrating models and maintaining humility in analysis. Drawing on past crises such as the 1997 Asian financial crisis, he noted that excluding key historical events can lead to flawed assumptions and missed risks.

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The World Gold Council, he said, is actively refining its approach to better account for political uncertainty and momentum-driven price movements.

Gold’s Expanding Role in a Complex Global Economy

Ultimately, the episode underscores that gold is no longer a passive asset sitting on the sidelines of the financial system. It is deeply integrated into global markets, influenced by everything from geopolitical conflicts and oil prices to logistics, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/09/central-bank-gold-buying-has-slowed-but-the-bullish-case-remains-004827";>central bank policies, and technological shifts.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephcavatoni"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Joe Cavatoni’s outlook remains clear. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term fundamentals supporting gold remain strong. In an era defined by uncertainty, gold’s role as both a store of value and a source of liquidity ensures its continued relevance.

For investors, the message is straightforward. Understanding gold requires a global perspective, an appreciation for its multiple roles, and a willingness to look beyond short-term price movements.

What Causes Gold Prices to Drop? Key Factors Investors Should Know

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold is supposed to rise in uncertain times. So why does it sometimes fall right when investors need it most? What causes gold prices to drop?

Dropping gold prices do not mean that gold is a bad investment. Instead, it indicates that gold can have a volatile market in the short term. Several factors cause gold prices to drop in the short term, including central bank policies, dollar value trends, and speculation.

Sometimes, gold may also perform differently in a financial crisis. This performance often depends on the economic circumstances surrounding the crisis.

Investors benefit from understanding the market. Discover why gold prices fall in this guide!

Quick Answer: What Makes Gold Prices Go Down

Gold prices drop primarily due to rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, falling inflation expectations, and reduced investor demand. These factors increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and shift capital toward yield-producing assets.

The Drivers Behind Falling Gold Prices

Gold is influenced by several factors, including macro, monetary, and psychological forces. It's important to understand that prices rarely move for just one reason.

We'll look at macroeconomic considerations first, starting with rising interest rates and bond yields.

Rising Interest Rates and Bond Yields When Gold Prices Drop

Gold does not compete primarily with inflation: instead, it competes with real interest rates. It does so through the opportunity cost.

The opportunity cost of holding gold is the interest income or investment returns (like dividends or bond yields) an investor sacrifices by holding gold instead of income-generating assets. Gold produces no yield, so its opportunity cost is high.

Gold has an inverse relationship with high interest rates. During times of high real rates, stocks and bonds offer much higher yields and dividends to investors.

Real interest rates are crucial, as they measure the real purchasing power of their returns. This separates an investor's actual accrued wealth from their nominal gains.

As you might expect, many investors run to these high-yield investments in the hope of building more wealth.

What happens to gold in the meantime? The short answer is the price drops due to a lack of demand. When investor interest in gold declines, so too does the price.

Rising interest rates have historically put serious pressure on gold prices, especially during Federal Reserve tightening cycles. For example, in the early 1980s, Paul Volcker led the Fed's aggressive rate hikes. These caused gold prices to fall sharply after peaking, as investors shifted capital into high-yield Treasury securities.

A similar pattern emerged between 2015 and 2018, when gradual rate increases coincided with periods of gold price weakness. These episodes highlight a consistent dynamic when the cost of holding non-yielding assets rises, gold often struggles in the short term.

US Dollar Strength and Currency Dynamics

US dollar strength plays an important role in the price of the dollar. Gold and the dollar have an inverse correlation: the stronger the dollar becomes, the more the gold price drops.

The reason behind this is straightforward: when the dollar becomes strong, it gains more purchasing power. A dollar with more purchasing power brings prices down, as the dollar is capable of buying more.

The next step is that there is less international demand for gold, which actually makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers. The reduced demand lowers prices domestically.

Conversely, a weak US dollar usually makes gold cheaper for international investors, which drives up demand and prices.

So, how can you keep track of the US dollar and its strength? That's where the https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/?guccounter=1&;amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoWxRgQIIeYIaLBJ_cB4NELJl9uut85vzZR_ADwNJ2sTPJTZ2sh-mj2ajnahQnNl2RtGMdEnwBn2lXogRDaai8c_Zj95GQtYasTQMJJL7FCvASnVCvM0jgRvhGp-xQPuD-Q07huUgDpnqspglAQRjwJ2Yabi5jkElC5FTYFmfqu">US Dollar Index (DXY) comes in.

The DXY is a benchmark that measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major foreign currencies:

The Euro
Japanese Yen
British Pound
Canadian Dollar
Swedish Krona
Swiss Franc

Monitoring the US Dollar Index can give you a strong idea of where the dollar's value is. That's an excellent tool for investors, as it can help you track price and “buy low, sell high.”

Inflation Expectations vs Reality

There is a real distinction between inflation expectations and reality. This is where many investors get gold wrong. Gold doesn't react to inflation itself: it reacts to where inflation is headed next.

If inflation cools, the demand for gold often weakens. The market looks forward to the imminent future far more than it accounts for the current conditions.

In short, gold often falls when inflation is high but expected to decline. The market has shown this particular dynamic play out a few times, most recently in 2022 and early 2023.

During this time, inflation remained elevated but began to show signs of peaking. Even though consumer prices were still high, markets anticipated that inflation would cool when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

As a result, real interest rates moved higher and expectations shifted toward tighter monetary policy. Gold prices, which had surged earlier on inflation fears, began to pull back during several periods as investors priced in declining future inflation rather than reacting to current data.

This response emphasizes our point: gold responds to expectations. When investors believe inflation has peaked and will fall, demand for gold often weakens, even before inflation itself meaningfully declines.

Central Bank Policies and Monetary Tightening

We have alluded to the role of the Federal Reserve, but have not addressed it directly yet. While the Federal Reserve does not set the gold price, its policies play a role in investor demand.

The Federal Reserve has two main actions that often cause gold prices to drop:

Rate hikes
Quantitative tightening

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates or engages in quantitative tightening, it essentially pulls liquidity out of the financial system. Less liquidity means less cash flowing into alternative assets like gold.

Simultaneously, higher rates increase yields on bonds and savings instruments. That gives investors a compelling reason to move money out of non-yielding assets.

This dynamic has played out repeatedly in modern markets. During tightening cycles, gold often struggles; investors prefer to invest in income-earning assets through interest-bearing assets. Just as important, central bank messaging shapes expectations.

When policymakers signal a commitment to fighting inflation through higher rates, markets anticipate stronger real yields and adjust accordingly. These trends place pressure on gold prices before policy changes fully take effect.

The contrast is straightforward. Loose monetary policy includes low rates and stimulus, which tends to support gold by weakening currencies and boosting liquidity. Tight policy does the opposite.

For investors, understanding this relationship is essential. Gold's price is often less about current conditions and more about where central bank policy is headed next.

Investor Sentiment and Market Psychology

Gold is partly driven by fear cycles. This is because gold is primarily a safe haven asset meant to protect your assets. People naturally run to safe haven assets during fear cycles.

“Risk-on” and “risk-off” environments have different effects on gold prices as a result. In risk-on environments, stock markets rise and economic confidence rises high. As a result, investors tend to move capital into equities and other growth assets.

In short, people do not feel the need for a safe-haven asset. That causes gold to decline as demand weakens.

Conversely, during “risk-off” periods marked by uncertainty or market stress, gold typically benefits from increased demand. However, this relationship is not always linear. Speculative activity in futures markets and flows into or out of gold-back ETFs can amplify price swings. Those swings can go in either direction.

Large institutional movements can push prices lower, even without major changes in fundamentals. All of this demonstrates that gold is driven partially by fear cycles. When fears subside, gold can lose momentum. Gold prices are not just a reflection of economic data, but also of investor sentiment, expectations, and crowd behavior.

Gold Supply and Mining Production

Supply and demand are major drivers of economic markets. That includes the gold market.

That's why gold mining production plays a role in determining gold price. Increased gold production leads to a heightened supply of gold. When there's more gold to go around, it leads to downward pressure on the gold market.

The result is that gold can deflate. However, there are some other factors to consider.

First, gold's supply is often secondary. One reason for that is gold recycling.

Gold and other precious metals like silver can sometimes be recycled. This is particularly true for their uses in the industrial sphere.

When gold can be recycled, it can slow down the need for a heightened gold supply. Similarly, when gold production does increase, it can continue to inflate the gold available. All of that drives demand down, and prices with it.

Geopolitical Stability (Or Lack of Fear)

As a safe haven asset, gold prices tend to rise during times of geopolitical uncertainty. When the geopolitical situation stabilizes, or else reaches a point where investors are not economically concerned, gold prices tend to fall.

Specifically, prices generally fall when:

Geopolitical conflicts ease or end
Markets stabilize

However, it is worth noting that not all crises boost gold equally. A recent example of a crisis that did not have a huge impact on gold price was the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Initially, gold spiked at the outbreak of war due to the geopolitical uncertainty it brought. However, the conflict dragged on far longer than anticipated. As time went on, the markets adjusted to the risk and found a “new normal.”

That change brought with it a renewed emphasis for central banks on aggressive tightening and rising interest rates. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold prices struggled to maintain upward momentum. In fact, they even declined at various points throughout 2022. You can track that fluctuation with this table:

Period (2022)	Gold Price Trend	Key Event	Market Reaction
Jan–Feb (Pre-Invasion)	Rising	Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine	Safe-haven demand increases as uncertainty builds
Late Feb–March	Sharp Spike (Peaked near $2,050)	Russia invades Ukraine (Feb 24, 2022)	Gold surges on geopolitical shock and panic buying
April–June	Declining	Federal Reserve begins aggressive rate hikes	Rising yields and strong dollar pressure gold prices
July–September	Continued Weakness	Ongoing war, tightening monetary policy	Markets shift focus from war to inflation and interest rates
October–November	Stabilizing / Rebound	Slowing rate hike expectations	Gold recovers as dollar strength eases
December	Uptrend	Cooling inflation signals	Gold gains momentum despite ongoing conflict

Once again, this demonstrates that not all crises affect the gold price in the same ways. When a crisis becomes prolonged or becomes overshadowed by stronger economic forces, gold can weaken.

Short-Term Drops vs Long-Term Trends

There is a crucial distinction investors must understand when it comes to the gold market: short-term volatility does not reflect long-term trends. The table below shows this relationship:

Factor	Why Gold Falls	Short-Term or Long-Term Impact
Rising Interest Rates	Increases opportunity cost	Short-Term
Strong U.S. Dollar	Reduces global demand	Short-Term
Falling Inflation Expectations	Reduces safe-haven demand	Medium-Term

The precious metals market can be a volatile one. Although gold has more stability than other assets, such as silver, it remains unstable in the short-term. Gold constantly undergoes price corrections as the market adjusts to accommodate current investment realities.

However, short-term price corrections are not enough to cause structural declines in gold. Over time, gold has seen a largely positive growth. It continues to serve as a powerful hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, even if it has short-term negative spikes.

The point investors must understand is that gold is not a get rich quick asset. There is an opportunity cost with gold. However, even that cost is an investment in your future financial security.

Understanding gold's role in a portfolio can help investors figure out allocations and financial strategies. Part of that understanding does involve monitoring short-term drops. We'll explore that further in the next section.

What Falling Gold Prices Mean for Investors

Falling gold prices generally signal something called a “liquidity flush.” Times like these prompt investors to sell their gold holdings to raise their cash holdings. This usually happens because of the following factors:

Increased dollar strength
Higher interest rates
Reduced safe-haven demand

The liquidity flush can benefit sellers by increasing their cash revenue. However, it also presents opportunities for investors who want to increase their gold holdings.

When prices fall, it gives investors a chance to buy gold at its reduced price. This way, their gold holdings can benefit from the eventual gold price rally.

Falling gold prices reflect the short-term volatility common to much of the precious metals market. However, the key takeaway for investors is that gold is not a short-term asset. Instead, it is a long-term investment meant to secure your wealth from inflation down the road.

Investors do not need to panic and sell their gold when they see the price drop. Long-term investors do better to wait out temporary trends to gain future benefits.

Frequently Asked Questions About Why Gold Prices Fall

Q: What causes gold prices to drop when interest rates rise?

Rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, since investors can earn yields from bonds or savings accounts instead. As capital shifts toward these income-producing assets, demand for gold weakens and prices tend to fall.

Q: Does a strong US dollar always make gold prices go down?

A stronger US dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold because it makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers. However, other factors like geopolitical risk or inflation expectations can offset this effect in certain market conditions.

Q: Why does gold sometimes fall during a financial crisis?

Gold can decline during a crisis when investors sell assets to raise cash, a phenomenon often called a liquidity crunch. In these moments, short-term selling pressure can outweigh gold's long-term safe-haven appeal.

Q: Is falling gold a good buying opportunity?

Falling gold prices can present buying opportunities for long-term investors who believe in gold's role as a store of value. However, timing matters, and investors should consider broader economic trends before increasing their holdings.

Final Reflection on What Causes Gold Prices to Drop

Investors have several reasons for asking what causes gold prices to drop. Sometimes, they're worried about current market conditions and what they mean for their investments. Others simply want to know when they can expect a better buying cost.

It is always wise to pay attention to market trends for your investments. Understanding what causes prices to drop can help you discern good times to buy increased gold holdings. However, it does not necessarily signal a time to sell your holdings. Instead, it is better to trust in gold's long-term value.

If gold declines are driven by temporary forces like rising rates or a strong dollar, they often create entry points, not warning signs. https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/coins";>Gold coins often offer higher liquidity for one ounce of gold, but charge higher manufacturing premiums.

In contrast, gold bars allow you to buy more gold in bulk. The https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/bars";>tradeoff is that heavier bars often have less liquidity than gold coins.

Our inventory contains several trusted gold products, from coins and bars to rounds and fractionals. Browse our inventory to find the best gold products for your portfolio!

States Retreat from Gold Market Takeovers | Gold’s Moon Mission

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up, don’t miss an exclusive interview with Joe Cavatoni of the World Gold Council. Joe is a market strategist with over 30 years of financial services experience and helps us make sense of how gold has reacted and likely will react in the face of dizzying geopolitical and war headlines that seem to change day-by-day, if not hour-by-hour. Joe weighs in on gold’s role as a safe haven asset given the current backdrop and explains why the recent moves in the gold price shouldn’t really surprise anyone.

Mike Maharrey and Joe also discuss the historic rise in the gold price over the last two plus years, and assess where we are today and what the next move might be in gold moving forward as he aims to help investors cycle out all the noise in the market considering constant uncertainty and volatility.

So, stick around for that and a whole lot more during another wonderful conversation with the highly respected Joe Cavatoni of the World Gold Council, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

So, you’ve heard of people looking at the world through rose colored glasses, right?

Well, when astronauts finally walk on the moon again, they’ll be looking through gold-colored visors.

That gold coloring isn’t just a cool look. It has a very important function.

The face shields on the spacesuit helmets look gold because the precious metal is literally incorporated into their design.

The Oakley sunglasses company developed the visor used by the Artemis astronauts. And when you think about it, it makes sense. If you think the sun is intense here on Earth during a summer day, it's way more harsh outside the Earth's atmosphere.

On a related note, we will very soon be shipping our brand new https://www.moneymetals.com/nasa-artemis-ii-silver-round-1-troy-ounce-999-pure/3069";>NASA Artemis II - 1 Ounce Silver Round Commemoratives, so check out the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/new-arrivals";>New Arrivals page at MoneyMetals.com if you are interested in grabbing some of these neat collectibles made of pure silver.

Now, in space, the sun apparently feels as if it's piercing through your eyes. So, astronauts need an exceptional visor system to protect their eyes and maximize visibility to enable them to work in the challenging lunar environment.

It turns out that gold’s electron structure can filter out both infrared and ultraviolet light. As NASA explained it, the movable sun visor and sunshades protect the astronaut from the sun’s strong rays, while still allowing a clear visual field.

To take advantage of these physical properties, the astronaut visors include a coating of 24-karat gold. To make these remarkable visors, they shoot an electron beam powerful enough to evaporate the gold. That atomized gold is then sprayed onto the lens, creating the perfect coating for the job.

And who says gold is just a useless pet rock?

In reality, gold is one of the most useful metals in the world. Due to its utility, coupled with its scarcity, gold is also one of the most valuable metals in the world.

In the first place, gold is strikingly beautiful. It has captured people's eyes for thousands of years. That’s why people all over the world love to wear gold. About 44 percent of gold demand is for jewelry production. About 1,550 tons of gold were used in jewelry fabrication last year.

But gold isn’t just pretty. As we’ve seen with the space helmet, the metal’s inherent physical and chemical properties make it useful in many industrial and technological applications.

This is why we see gold increasingly used in the tech sector. In fact, gold would probably be used even more if it weren’t so rare and expensive.

Last year, tech used 228 tonnes of gold, mostly in electronics. That’s because gold has excellent electrical conductivity and, unlike silver, doesn’t corrode. It is also malleable, making it excellent for tiny, precise connections.

The point is that gold is far from useless.

But fundamentally, https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2024/02/28/gold-and-silver-are-real-money-003011";>gold is money. And everybody has a use for money – especially real money.

In other news this week, lawmakers in Tennessee have delivered another blow to the big-government “transactional gold” schemes proposed in numerous state legislatures this year.

The Tennessee legislature rejected a bill that would have created an entangling, government-run gold depository, investment, and payment system, putting the state in direct competition with private firms already successfully offering these services.

These damaging bills have been pushed by individuals associated with a self-interested European vendor seeking a contract to run a major government program that effectively turns a state into a bullion dealer, depository, and payment processor – while also allowing government bureaucrats to insert themselves right in the middle of people's private personal finances.

By abandoning this foolish and dangerous proposal, Tennessee joins a dozen other states that have done the same, including Georgia, Kansas, Arizona, West Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Dakota, Idaho, Mississippi, Wyoming, and Michigan.

Well, before we get to this week’s interview, let’s take a look at the market action in the metals.

Gold, is up about $80 or 1.7% to come in at $4,769 an ounce.

Silver meanwhile is up nearly $3 or 4.0% on the week and currently trades at $76.67.

Platinum is up 3.3% and checks in at $2,063, while its sister metal palladium is up 1.1% to trade at $1,537 an ounce as of this Friday late morning recording.

Well now, for more on the recent action in the metals markets, let’s get right to our exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by Joe Cavatoni. Joe is a market strategist covering North America for the World Gold Council, and I'm very happy to get his insights today. How are you doing, Joe?

Joe Cavatoni: I'm great, Mike. How are you? Thanks for having me.

Mike Maharrey: I am outstanding and it's great to have you on the show. And we'll give folks a little bit of context because it's kind of necessary in a world where headlines are moving so fast, but it almost looks like maybe there's a ceasefire in the Iran-US-Israel conflict. I guess we can't really know what that's going to look like because everything changes minute by minute, but that's where we are today. So actually, gold is up a little bit this morning. So that's the context, but I wanted to start off and ask you just kind of your perception of how gold has behaved during this conflict. And if there's anything that you've seen in the gold market that has surprised you, a lot of folks are coming to me and saying, "Mike, I thought gold was a safe haven and it's tanked during this war. What's going on? " So I'm curious from your perspective as somebody who's watched the gold markets closely for many years, how you kind of see this.

Joe Cavatoni: So Mike, let me start by amplifying what you've said, which is headlines keep moving so fast. And I'm not sure about you or for your listeners, but for one thing for sure for me, is I don't think I put my phone down and I don't think I stopped watching social media for headlines twenty four seven. And it can be a little overwhelming, but I think that the thing that people need to understand, and I think they need to be keeping the context is actually gold is doing what we expect it to be doing. So what shocked me, and it hasn't been gold's performance during the war, what really shocked me early in the year was that excessive run up in the price to record prices of near $5,500, maybe a bit over that, and 30% return in January, which was followed by what we consider probably a very logical retreatment of 20%, which is factoring into some of the selloff of the year.

So, I think we need to keep it in context because that was a big moment in January, driven a lot by momentum and speculation. Now, fast forward into the Iran conflict, what we saw and expected from gold were what happened as an immediate response to a geopolitical conflict event, the price of gold spiked, but as the markets and investors are able to assess what the complications and outcomes of the conflict could be, we started to see that weigh in on the gold price and do what it usually does is it retreats back as people assess what the conflict is looking like. So that immediate reaction took us up about three or four, almost 5% on the day of the initial conflict. And we retreated back and actually people started to assess what it meant, meaning quite candidly, the price of oil was going to be significantly impacted.

Now, of course, everyone in the US looks at it from their perspective saying, "Oh gosh, now I'm going to have a $6 golden price at the pump." And then the market started to assess what it meant for global economies. And it's much, much more substantive in terms of its impact around the globe, meaning that emerging markets are energy dependent on oil and those economies were going to be likely severely impacted as a result of that. Those economies impacted inflation being an outcome of that. And actually in context, risk assets were being sold off pretty aggressively around the globe, particularly in those markets to start, then followed by risk assets around the globe as inflation was trying to be assessed as a consequence. And gold did what it does during those moments. People use safe haven assets during moments of conflict leading to outcomes that lead to need for liquidity.

So, you have to remember that there was a conflict where we saw the price move and then a consequence of the conflict where we saw what role gold plays – safe haven being utilized pretty aggressively. Profits were taken, I'm sure. I mean, you're talking about a near up 130% over the last 18 months. Margin calls were being made, liquidity get to cash mentality kicked in, and people were definitely taking money off the table, and gold was not immune to that. So the early selloff in the part of the year from the 30% up, plus the selloff that came as a consequence of get to cash during the outcome of assessing the war has taken us down to a low level of around 41, 4,200. And as you start to see that world looking clearer as a consequence of possible ceasefire in the war, you start to see gold moving its way back up, back on that steady long-term discussion we've had around why gold's going to keep climbing higher over the long term.

So, that's a very long-winded way of describing what happened, but hopefully it touches on everything. And to directly answer your question, we're not surprised by what gold has done outside of that 30% run in January. And actually over the course of the conflict, we actually think it's done exactly as we expected it would do.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Actually, that was not long-winded. That was a fantastic overview of what's going on and largely dovetails with a lot of what I've observed and what I've heard from folks that I've talked to as well. I think you make a really good point that folks use gold. I mean, we talk about it as a safe haven, but that means something, right? It does. And so sometimes you have to tap into that safe haven when need arises. I think maybe, and I'm interested if you agree with this, that Turkey is a really good example of that. They unloaded quite a bit of gold from their reserves. It looks like they've set it up to be a temporary kind of thing. Look, we have this situation, we have an oil shock, we need cash, we've got this gold, let's sell it, lease it, and then we can move on from there.

Joe Cavatoni: So, I think it's a great illustration of a central bank making use of the reserve asset that they need that they want. There's also been news around Poland, possibly using some of its gold reserves, which have actually grown faster and larger than they had budgeted for. So clearly they have profits and they're saying, "Look, we can use those profits." And through the mechanism that they have onshore in Poland, they can actually move those profits into the hands of spending in the hands of the government. But for investors, you're right, our use case we define as investment as a offset to risk assets, as a liquidity sleeve, as a safe haven asset. And guess what? When you're selling risk assets and you need to make margin calls or you need to have cash ready to hand and you need liquidity, that safe haven role triggers the sale of gold, and it's actually what we've been seeing.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. I think it's interesting when you kind of look at the war, it's almost a microcosm of life in the era of Trump, right? And I'm curious, just from your perspective as a market analyst, you're sitting here and you're trying to understand where markets are going and how they're moving. How do you deal with the level of, I like the term regime uncertainty, right? We have no earthly idea what is going to come out next on Truth Social or what's going to happen. How has that kind of affected your job over the last couple of years and how do you navigate that?

Joe Cavatoni: So, I think it's a great question and what we've been making sure that we are clearly communicating to people looking at any asset, including gold, is that the only thing that we can predict is the unpredictability of this new cycle. There's no crystal ball, there's no answer to what's next. And actually you just need to expect more uncertainty, more disruptive, potentially disruptive policies from the administration, and that's going to continue. It's having an impact, positive and negative on the economy, but ultimately you just need to expect it. As a result of that, I think all assets, including gold, have seen increased levels of stress on their levels of liquidity, but they've also seen increased sustained levels of volatility. And I think that that's something that people who have been looking at the gold market for a long time saying, "Oh no, this is meant to be a boring, stable asset. It's my safe-haven. I yawn when I think about it." Not the case anymore. It's an asset that's front and center with central banks. It's an asset that's front and center with investors and you should be expecting volatility, meaning the price ranging for gold to be a higher band than maybe you would've expected in the past. Now look, over the last four years, we've become much more pronounced in our role and in the portfolio in the investment landscape and a little bit less in the case of jewelry, but that's still a very large component of what's being consumed around the world as a gold mechanism. But at the end of the day, you need to expect higher levels of volatility and not be concerned about them because the strict and ruling of where gold's going to go over the long term is going to continue to take it higher because of fundamentals in the economy.

So, the noise is the noise and that's the tactical momentum and the strategic direction of gold continues to be what we would see as up 10, 15, 20% year on year while we're dealing with these types of conditions in global economies.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah. It's a really good way to look at it. Has the war changed your overall calculus in terms of looking at a little bit midterm, long term? Has it kind of changed the way you're factoring some of those fundamental dynamics that you mentioned, or do you see it more as kind of a political blip on the radar?

Joe Cavatoni: Well, it definitely is a little bit more than a blip on the radar. I think what it has been for many people is a very quick and valuable learning lesson around how substantive one factor like oil could mean to a global economy. In terms of our modeling and in terms of our thinking, where we're recalibrating and trying to get more accuracy from our estimates is around how to judge the uncertainty of these political cycles. That's probably been the thing we've wrestled with the most in terms of our overall ability to kind of expect and call the markets. And look, we're not here to call a price on the market. We're just here to help people understand what the performance has been and why. And it's a little bit more challenging to call the momentum and the short-term tactical activities in the gold market. And quite honestly, it's actually a bit of a challenge in that regard.

And that's where we're rethinking and how we put factors into what drives the short-term tactical driver of gold. Because I look at our numbers and I think that we're accurate to a degree, but I think we're underestimating the amount of momentum that's been put in the gold. I think January amplified that for us. We still looked at the post-January momentum up and down, and then we looked at what our numbers were indicating in terms of the momentum drivers. And we were probably lower than I would expect in terms of the overall factoring there. But some of that challenge comes in the fact that gold's an over-the-counter market. Some of that factoring is difficult to get your hands on because it's global in nature. But look, I think overall, we're standing comfortably behind our estimates for the year in terms of the bull case for gold to grow, but I'd say 15, 20, maybe even 30% on the year.

And I think that that's reasonable for us to see. And we're on track for that as we are up. It's about eight, 9% here, and as we enter April.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. From my perspective, watching your work over the years and of course tapping into your work quite a bit for what I'm doing, I feel like that you guys do a fantastic job considering all of the many factors that you have to weigh. And I think you make a really good point, and maybe this is something that we kind of need to emphasize. When you start looking at any market, we as human beings, we tend to tunnel vision, right? We've got a war. So, that's what we're looking at. And yet there's still all of these other things going on. And to really do good analysis, you really have to try to force yourself to step back, right?

Joe Cavatoni: You do.

Mike Maharrey: Is that kind of a challenge for you from a psychological standpoint sometimes, or have you gotten to the point that you're pretty good at it because this is what you're doing? How does that work from your perspective?

Joe Cavatoni: It's a challenge. You spend your entire career trying to be ahead of the game, ahead of the risk, ahead of the news cycle. And literally, as an example, I had an email exchange with someone we do some work with on the policy side in Washington, saw it, dealt with it, thought I was all over it. And then I realized I hadn't circulated it to our broader team outside of the US who had a lot of interest in it. And then I'm like, I'm looking at it and you're just always catching up. But I think that's a silly little example, but I think the bigger point is that if you use models, you need to always be calibrating and recalibrating models. They're never right perfect and set for good. You need to be dynamic in your assessment of markets. You need to be dynamic in the assessment of your models, and you need to have a little bit of humility to simply say, our model's good, but nothing's perfect and actually everything changes and you need to constantly reassess.

Now, I learned those lessons a long time ago living in Asia where we were looking at using quantitative models to drive big portfolios. And depending on how far back you wanted to look in terms of your data for testing markets, you had different outcomes in terms of positioning into the global financial crisis. You could have ignored 1997 for the Asian financial crisis and missed an entire shock to a market. So you have to have humility and you have to be putting your models in question constantly.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Humility is not something that's in large supply in this sector. And I guess that's just the nature of when you're trying to present a message. I mean, obviously we think we're right, right? I mean, and I don't mean that to be flippant. I mean, obviously we're not going to say things we don't think are true, but it is easy to cross that line into, well, I'm right and everybody else is wrong. I was curious about something that I've picked up on. I've been watching the ETF flows and of course, unsurprisingly with the selloff since January, we've seen outflows of gold from ETFs, but it's been dominated by North American funds. And I noticed that Asian funds actually were positive until the very last week of March. And so I'm curious if that's ... How do you see that difference of the way maybe the Asian market and the North American market are viewing things?

And how do you account for Asians were still flowing gold into funds in early parts of this world? How would you explain that?

Joe Cavatoni: Well, I think it's a great question. And first, I do want to make sure we put it into context that it is still a small component of the overall gold market. So it is a good, nice, transparent slice of the market, but less than 10% of the investment market for gold. And I think that what you're seeing is definitely a bit more profit taking, a bit more of a tactical mentality around the use of some of the exchange traded funds in the US market. Some of the larger, more liquid funds that get used for long, short trading positions like GLD and IAU, they've seen the lion share of the inflows and outflows. So it tells us that there's a little bit more momentum driven there, a little bit more tactical activity driven there. And I'd say that you should expect that kind of volatility in terms of the ETF flows in the US.

It still is the largest holding of global ETFs in terms of the overall percentage. It still has the most liquid instruments of any ETFs around the world, but they do get used more tactically as people move around the instruments. And interestingly enough, over the last couple of weeks, as you've highlighted, we're starting to see the flows coming back into the gold market. And there was really just a blip in March when it was really a big selloff in the US. So expect a little more tactical behavior that can be transparent in the ETF market, again, concentrated amongst the number of big ETFs that get used as trading vehicles.

Now, Asia, which is an interesting dynamic, is one where you've had a shift of people who would use physical gold or maybe jewelry and the adoption much more readily of regulated financial instruments like ETFs. So what we've been seeing is more of a shift to a more stable holding, more structural shift in their investment dollars as opposed to just speculating the gold price. And I think that that's actually been an interesting dynamic. It's still small relative to the overall holdings in both the Americas and also in Europe or EMEA, I should say. But at the end of the day, it's actually a shift that's continuing to take place. Moving away from physical gold or jewelry and actually using instruments like gold in a portfolio where you've seen challenges around portfolios that hold real estate, challenges around portfolios that hold equities and questions around big market economies like China, for example, and what it's going to do and how it's going to play out.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Very interesting to watch the different dynamics. I think sometimes as Americans, we forget that not everybody in the world thinks exactly like we do.

Joe Cavatoni: Correct.

Mike Maharrey: And actually- And I'm definitely guilty of that sometimes. It's easy to get myopic.

Joe Cavatoni: I mean, that's been something we've been hammering home for people on gold for better part of two and a half, three years now, which is just because the dollar and US interest rates haven't done what you would normally expect to see the performance of gold improving, this decoupling, so to speak, doesn't necessarily mean that there isn't a reason. The reason is that there's been the rise of the Eastern investor. There's been the rise of more consumption in Asian markets. It's actually really interesting to keep that global dynamic in mind. And to that end, one thing that I'm continuing to keep an eye on and having a real hard time just getting my head around is why European investors still haven't stepped in as much as I would've expected by now. And it's simply, I think, because the relative equity trade was cheap, I don't think that's the case anymore.

So, European equities versus US equities was cheap. I think that dynamic has changed. And I think that we should start to see more European ETF flows, more European flows into gold over the course of the year because spending's now on the radar for countries, deficits are going to continue to increase, challenges around Fiat currency, Euro, et cetera. And I think that you'll start to see that pick up. But let's see if that call is correct because it hasn't been something that I noticed that Europe's been notably quiet in terms of the transparent flows and ETFs.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I'm curious, it sounded like you alluded to the fact that you've spent some time in Asia, so you understand the Asian markets pretty well, I'm sure way better than I do. Can you give the audience a sense of ... I think there's a perception that Asian investors view gold differently than North American investors. Is that a fair assessment? And if so, what is that difference in thinking?

Joe Cavatoni: So I don't know if they ... Well, it's probably the role gold plays that they have a different appreciation for if I had to put it into context.

I think that we trust Treasuries, we trust the dollar to a certain extent, and we have a huge economy. And I think that it's not hard. Going back to a comment you made a little earlier, it's not hard to be very insular in the US. You've got a lot that you can look at. You get a lot you can work on. And innovation is just off the charts. I mean, in terms of financial market innovation, economies, just the way things happen here, and the pioneering spirit of the country is ingrained in all of us. Push it hard, throw caution to the wind, aggression, et cetera. I don't know if that's necessarily ingrained in a lot of the Asian markets. I think safety, saving, holding something that I know can transfer from generation to generation, which we have as well, but there's a lot longer history of the fear of currency devaluation and economies not having the same level of growth.

So, I think that's a fundamental difference there. And I guess as it translates into the modern era, having spent many years developing markets with a myriad of different firms and people that I've known over the years, it's been awesome to watch investment markets really go from fledgling to developed and in many ways just become mainstream. I had the opportunity to trade China A shares using the quota that the government would give to foreign entities, and that was a pretty exciting moment where you're actually trading something that many people thought would never happen. And over years, it developed into something that became much more easily accessible and transferrable, still not completely fungible across borders and free to trade, but where it started and where it is today, it's just a radically different place. And I think that that's been ... I always thought it was a very exciting dynamic of when I spent my years there, and it was literally 17, 18 years I spent in the region.

So, you're looking at a market that had 50 stocks listed, and then by the time you left, it was several hundred and you could short and you could do all kinds of different things. And it's really kind of fun and exciting. But I think it's a shift in that whole developing nation. It moved from emerging markets to developing nations in terms of how we even refer to them. And so I think even locally, more people are banked, more people have access to the markets, more people have access to trading. Digitization of different assets and online access to different things has changed the whole dynamic. People are banking without having to go into a brick and mortar bank anymore. So, it's a pretty amazing development. And I think at the heart of the Asian investor is still this mentality of saying, "What's the safest thing I can have in my wealth?

And it's something that doesn't lose its value that I can use when I need it in times of liquidity." Sound familiar? And they keep it and they hold onto it and they pass it down generation to generation.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah. That's really good insight. I appreciate that. I want to get you out on a couple of just more personal questions. And the first is, how'd you get interested in gold? I always find it interesting how people get into this “barbaric relic” as some have referred to it.

Joe Cavatoni: Sure. Well, I always understood and managed around a bit the commodity category, but never directly involved in it until about 10 years ago, the World Gold Council approached me about an opportunity to help them in the US with the investment direction of education and helping our research team kind of put together its content and think about modeling and think about the different aspects of what's happening in the gold market. We also are the innovators of the exchange traded funds, and I had a pretty comprehensive background in that. And there was a bit of work to be done there to make sure that our overall involvement in the ETF landscape was well-managed. So, that's how I got into it. And what I liked about it, which was something that took me back to the very early parts of my career, coming into the World Gold Council, it got me the opportunity to be less chained to a trading desk and more opportunity to see the value chain from the mine site to the market.

So, we do talk with refineries. We talk to those that are in the mining space who are our members. We talk to the people who are in the transportation business and the logistics business and also the storage business. I was literally at a site visit yesterday. Someone wanted us to see their vault just outside of New York City and Comex approved vault, which was really an interesting site business, talking about what the business opportunity is. So, it was that that drew me in, which was the opportunity to see industry start to finish from production to consumption. And actually, it was a large enough market for me to say, "Hey, this has got some real legs to it." You think about the big two commodities, it's gold and Oil. And I said, "That's actually pretty interesting stuff. So let's see where it goes." Now it's opened my eyes to a whole bunch of other things which we could go on for hours on in terms of critical minerals, et cetera, but I mean, it's just been a fantastic run.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting too. And you kind of alluded to something I think that maybe people don't really comprehend. It's just how big the gold market is in terms of all of the players in it. It's not just a guy sitting at a trading desk. And as you say, you've got miners, you've got explorers, geologists, bank. It's all of these different things that are kind of coming together, which is pretty cool.

Joe Cavatoni: I mean, just think about the simple impact that some of the logistical challenges we faced over the last five years between COVID shutdown, potential risk of tariffs. I mean, who would've ever thought that things like that could be impacting the gold market? If I hadn't taken the time to understand the gold market, I might not have. But then when you start getting there quickly, you realize, hey, logistics matter.

Mike Maharrey: Okay, here's the nerd question for you. Do you have a favorite gold coin?

Joe Cavatoni: Do I have a favorite gold coin? The short answer is no, I don't actually.

Mike Maharrey: You need to have a favorite gold coin. Come on.

Joe Cavatoni: I don't have a favorite gold coin. I just have Eagles, so I'm just sorry. So, I guess the ones that are in my possession are my favorite gold coins.

I don't have anything in the numismatic space. Although I did get a call this week from someone who says they have a friend who has a collection of coins that their grandfather passed down to their father to now to them, and they're looking for a little help with it. And I said, "Well, look, I know one thing for sure. If it's an eagle, then you can call your run of the mill dealer and see what you can liquidate if you want to. " But if there are any instances of numismatic value, which I don't dabble in the space, it's too complex for me to figure out and not one that I can protest to be an expert on. I said, be cautionary with that because you might be leaving a lot of money on the table without understanding what you've got.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that's very wise advice. I'm the same way. And I'll tell you what, there's nothing wrong with a nice gold eagle because as you say, you can offload that place anywhere. Everybody recognizes that what this is and what its value is.

Joe Cavatoni: So- I'll nerd out for you a little bit more here if you want.

Actually, and this is not an anti-crypto comment. This is actually a factual story. Many years ago, I have two boys who are now no longer young boys. They're grownups now. But I was on a trip to India and I bought them both a coin and then actually they've held onto it. And the older one asked me if we could buy some Bitcoin at the time, and we did. So, we bought gold and Bitcoin at the same time. And he's actually had a fun time just kind of learning the whole dynamic between the two, watching the whole story of crypto claiming to be gold and not. But he still holds both of those assets. My younger son, we had to tear apart his room because he claims he never got the coin I gave him. We had to go find it and we did eventually find it and he no longer holds either asset.

And actually my wife's been an active buyer through Costco.

Mike Maharrey: Nice, nice. Yeah. But those stories are fun. I gave both of my kids, and like yours, they're grown now, but I gave them both silver rounds. They're real pretty Irish silver rounds. They weren't actually coins, but they're 0.999 pure. And I got to tell them the other day, I said, "Hey, you remember that round I gave you?" Because when I gave it to them, silver was like $12, right? And so that round's worth about 70 bucks now. My daughter's eyes got real big. So, it is cool because it's a really tangible way to teach young people about markets and money, right?

Joe Cavatoni: It is.

Mike Maharrey: All right. So, before we go, I want to let you point folks toward the World Gold Council, if you want to give a quick overview of what you guys have to offer and where folks can go to avail themselves to all of the fine output that you have.

Joe Cavatoni: So, we've got a lot of information on the gold market ranging from market development work, market insight, research data. You can find our main gold page is gold.org. Within there, you'll have Gold Hub, which is where you can go get investment research and insights from people around the globe. And that's what's actually really cool about our site is that you can actually get insights from our team on the ground in China or on the ground in India. So, you can start to get a much, much better appreciation for the global nature of the gold market. And shout out to my co-host, John Reed for our unearthed podcast. We have a monthly that we do, and then we have regular production of podcasts as well, where we give insights ranging from all aspects of the market, like you said, the logistics side or the production side to the market side, and some really interesting commentary coming up in the next couple of months with those that have some very insightful views on the investment landscape.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. And I just want to emphasize fantastic work that you guys do. I couldn't do my job if it wasn't for you guys doing your job. I visit the World Gold Council literally every single day. That's one of the go- to stops because there is so much great data, not just current news, but a lot of historical data that you can dig up if you're doing research. 100%.

Joe Cavatoni: And thank you for that, and that's why we're here.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. And we really appreciate it. And I really appreciate you taking a little bit of time out of your day. I know you're on the road traveling and that's always a hassle. And so I appreciate we managed to get this done early in the morning before I'm normally doing anything. So I think I've been remarkably cogent, which is good. But I really do appreciate it, and I thank you so much, and would love to have you back on again as things unfold in the future. That sounds great,

Joe Cavatoni: And I welcome the opportunity. All right.

Mike Maharrey: Well, thank you again.

Another great interview there and it was wonderful to have Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council join us once again, and we certainly enjoyed hearing his very studied and informed view on what he’s been seeing in the gold market of late.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And remember to tune in as well to the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey.

To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

Astronauts Looking Through Gold-Colored Visors

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

I’ve got a good story for the knuckleheads who run around claiming “gold is useless.” Yes, people really do say that.

So, you’ve heard of people looking at the world through rose colored glasses?

Well, when astronauts finally walk on the moon again, they’ll be looking through gold-colored visors.

Growing up in the 1970s, I wanted to be an astronaut. In fact, I think most kids in my generation had that dream at some point in their childhood. It was the era of the Apollo missions, and news about space travel and moon trips was ubiquitous. Heck, I drank Tang because that’s what astronauts drank.

I even got to see the last Apollo rocket launch with my own eyes. We lived in Ormond Beach, Florida, at the time. I was only 5, but I still vividly remember how the sky lit up as bright as day when Apollo 17 fired its rocket.

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All that to say that the Artemis II mission and all the amazing images beamed back from the moon by the crew have reawakened my childhood fascination with space travel.

Well, the other day, I ran across an article about the spacesuits astronauts will wear when they walk on the moon during the Artemis III mission. As I looked at the photos, it struck me that the gold visors on the helmets look pretty rad. (My daughter would probably say the helmets “slay.”)

Well, that gold coloring isn’t just a cool look. It has a very important function.

The face shields on the spacesuit helmets look gold because the metal is incorporated into their design.

Oakley developed the visor. Yup – the sunglasses company. And when you think about it, it makes sense. If you think the sun is intense here on Earth on a Florida summer day, it’s got nothing on the harshness of the sun in space.

Axiom Space designed the space suits and subcontracted the visor design to Oakley. The company’s chief technology officer, Koichi Wakata, was an astronaut himself. He flew five missions – three aboard the Space Shuttle, one on the Soyuz, and one on the Crew Dragon. He logged over 500 days in space, so he knows what it’s like.

"In space, the sun is really harsh; it feels as if it's piercing through your eyes. We need an exceptional visor system to protect eyes and [offer] maximum visibility to enable [astronauts] to work in the challenging lunar environment.”

The Oakley website explained it this way:

“In the extreme environment of space, clarity and protection are paramount. Now, we're bringing decades of innovation in optics, honed in the world's most demanding sports and adventure settings, to a new arena: the vacuum of space.”

But why gold (besides that it looks super cool)?

Gold filters out infrared and ultraviolet light. As NASA explained it, “The movable sun visor and sun shades protect the astronaut from the sun’s strong rays, while still allowing a clear visual field.”

I’m not a science guy, so ChatGPT helped me with a little research. I learned that gold’s electron structure interacts with UV and IR photons in a way that prevents them from passing through.

In simple terms, gold has a lot of free and loosely bound electrons. When IR light hits the metal, those electrons absorb the energy and begin oscillating. Instead of letting the light pass through, the metal reflects it.

Gold blocks UV light with a similar process. However, because UV light produces higher levels of energy, it causes more intense electron oscillation. Some UV light is reflected, and some is absorbed. However, little gets through to the astronauts’ eyes.

To take advantage of these physical properties, the astronaut visors include a coating of 24-karat gold.

The visor also features a scratch-resistant outer coating that can withstand lunar dust. There's also a flip-down visor that completely blocks light from the upper portion of the visor during super-harsh conditions. The helmet even has a small foam block inside that astronauts can use to scratch their nose (and close their nasal passages to aid with pressure equalization in the ears).

Oakley's head of R&D, Vincenzo Spremulli, said they were looking for something specifically oriented for the reflection of infrared light.

“This is what gold is. Gold is a known material. It’s a precious metal, so it doesn’t undergo any transformation. It can reflect IR radiation away from itself. It doesn’t absorb it. It just reflects it away.”

So, how do they get the gold layer thick enough to stop UV and IR light, but thin enough for the astronauts to see through?

They shoot a beam of electrons at the gold, powerful enough to evaporate the metal. It is then sprayed onto the lens, creating the perfect coating for the job.

And did I mention it looks super cool?

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Warren Buffett once said, “Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

I even once heard a commentator on a major financial network claim gold is a "useless rock."

This is obviously a ridiculous take, as we’ve just seen.

In fact, gold is one of the most useful metals in the world. Due to its utility, coupled with its scarcity, gold is also one of the most valuable metals in the world.

But gold isn’t just pretty. As we’ve seen with the space helmet, the metal’s inherent physical and chemical properties make it useful in many industrial and technological applications.

This is why we see gold increasingly used in the tech sector. In fact, gold would probably be used even more if it weren’t so rare and expensive.

Last year, the tech sector used 228 tonnes of gold, mostly in electronics. That’s because gold has excellent electrical conductivity and, unlike silver, doesn’t corrode. It is also malleable, making it excellent for tiny, precise connections.

The point is that gold is far from useless.

But fundamentally, https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2024/02/28/gold-and-silver-are-real-money-003011";>gold is money. And everybody wants to have money -- especially real money.

Photo courtesy of Axiom Space

Central Bank Gold Buying Has Slowed But the Bullish Case Remains

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Central bank gold buying has slowed significantly in the last few months. However, analysts at Metals Focus think this is a temporary reaction to current factors and not the beginning of a new trend.

Demand from central banks was a key factor driving the gold price up over the last few years.

While central bank gold purchases declined to 863.3 tonnes last year, they were still well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

In fact, 2025 was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record. The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

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In January, the gold price spiked to well over $5,000. Since then, there have been significant price pressures due to uncertainty created by the Iran conflict and worries about a surge of price inflation. As Metals Focus noted, gold sales by central banks, along with reports of “potential further disposals," have also weighed on investor sentiment.

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However, Metals Focus analysts said the selling is likely temporary.

“Indeed, even accounting for these sales, provisional data suggest that the official sector has remained a net bullion buyer this year-to-date. Elevated geopolitical risks should, if anything, reinforce the case for central banks to hold gold as a means of diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets.”

Turkey Leads Sellers

As we reported recently, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/27/turkey-sells-60-tonnes-of-gold-to-backstop-lira-004792";>Turkey has sold a significant amount of gold over the last month to support the lira.

According to data analyzed by Bloomberg, Turkish gold reserves showed a 6-tonne decline during the week of March 13 and 52.4 tonnes the following week. Based on Metals Focus data, Turkish gold reserves have declined another 79 tonnes since then, bringing total sales to 131 tonnes.

Rising energy prices due to the war are straining the Turkish central bank’s ability to maintain its strategy of slow lira depreciation. As energy prices rise, it increases demand for dollars (given that most oil contracts are priced in the U.S. currency). This increases the downward pressure on the lira. By selling gold and intervening with dollars, the Turkish central bank can maintain lira strength.

More than half of the decline in Turkish gold reserves was the result of gold swaps. As Bloomberg noted, “It’s not uncommon for central banks to sell spot gold and simultaneously agree to buy it back in the future via swap agreements, effectively granting them cheap dollar funding using the precious metal as collateral.”

Meanwhile, Russia has been selling gold to support its economy as it struggles against aggressive sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. It sold 9 tonnes of gold in January and another 6 tonnes in February.

According to Metals Focus, “These sales are believed to involve the National Wealth Fund (NWF), with gold assets liquidated to help finance budget shortfalls.”

Ghana started selling gold before the chaos of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran. The African nation’s gold reserves dropped nearly 50 percent from 38 to 19 tonnes between October and December of last year. Officials said the sales were for “portfolio rebalancing.” With the price of gold surging, gold exceeded 40 percent of the country’s total reserves.

Metals Focus put the changes in Ghana’s reserves into perspective.

“Purchasing domestic mine output and subsequently selling gold is not uncommon among central banks in gold-producing countries. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are notable examples, having been active on both sides of the market in recent years, albeit with a bias towards net accumulation. Looking ahead, as Ghana plans to expand purchases of domestically mined gold, more frequent two-way activity is likely.”

Poland has hinted at selling some of its gold holdings to finance defense spending. The country led all central banks last year, adding 102 tonnes to its reserves.

However, despite rumors that it might tap into its gold reserves, Poland was https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/02/central-bank-gold-buying-rebounded-in-february-004807";>the biggest buyer in February, expanding its reserves by another 20 tonnes. This lifted the country’s gold reserves to 570 tonnes, making up 31 percent of its total reserves.

The Case for Expanding Gold Reserves Remains Intact

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Looking ahead, even with a shaky ceasefire in place, uncertainty surrounding actions in Iran will likely continue. This will probably keep energy prices high and volatile over the next few months. Given this scenario, Metals Focus analysts said they cannot rule out more central bank gold selling and swaps to raise liquidity and support economies.

However, Metals Focus called these “short-term dynamics” and insisted that “the case for [central bank] portfolio diversification into gold remains intact, particularly for countries that are still underweight.”

In fact, the conflict with Iran could exacerbate some of the dynamics that have driven central bank gold buying over the last few years, particularly concerns about https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>the weaponization of the dollar and the United States’s borrowing and spending problem.

“If anything, the Iran conflict, alongside U.S. intervention in Venezuela, may signal a shift towards a more unilateral U.S. foreign policy stance, potentially amplifying geopolitical uncertainty in the years ahead. Combined with a deteriorating fiscal outlook across key economies and concerns over central bank independence, this should continue to enhance gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier.”

Tennessee Rejects Dangerous Government-Backed “Transactional Gold” Boondoggle in Latest Sound Money Victory

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

(Nashville, Tennessee – April 9, 2026) -- Lawmakers in Tennessee delivered yet another blow to government “transactional gold” schemes when the Legislature rejected harmful legislation today, joining more than a dozen other states, including https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/news/2026/03/27/georgia-rejects-big-government-transactional-gold-bill-joining-more-than-a-dozen-other-states-000659"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Georgia, Kansas, Arizona, West Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Dakota, Idaho, Mississippi, Wyoming, and Michigan in abandoning these schemes.

House Bill 2427 and Senate Bill 1813 would have created an entangling, government-run gold depository, investment, and payment system in the Volunteer State, directly competing with private firms that are already successfully offering these services in Tennessee and nationwide.

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These Tennessee bills, pushed by individuals associated with a self-interested vendor, attempted to establish a novel government program that would convert the State of Tennessee from a regulator to a direct market participant, while also entangling Tennessee government bureaucrats with the private personal finances of American citizens.

The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) also played a role by publishing the Big Government “model bill” language introduced in Tennessee and several other states this session, raising questions about how the proposal aligns with the group’s purported limited government values.

Senator Shane Reeves (R-14) raised questions about the bill’s inoperability, while a representative from the Tennessee Department of Revenue explained that this massive new program would be outside the normal duties of the Department and highlighted that this proposal could lead to costs exceeding a whopping $17 million in FY 26-27 and more than $10.6 million in FY 27-28 and subsequent years if enacted.

Thanks to significant opposition from constituents and sound money experts, Tennessee lawmakers wisely decided to reject this dangerous Big Government transactional gold legislation and instead opted for further discussion on the topic at a later date.

Tennessee joins a growing chorus of policymakers rejecting these bills for the following reasons:

Gold Payment App Ploy to Obtain Special Government Blessing and Privilege –The public-private partnership concept is backed by individuals connected with gold payment apps who desire the imprimatur of state government endorsement to help attract new customers and overcome their competition. This is extremely disturbing considering the fact that these apps are already freely available for use in every state throughout the United States without a bureaucratic, convoluted state structure picking winners and losers.

False Tax Claims and Scare Tactics Used to Pry Customers Away From Other Businesses – Promoters have made false and irresponsible marketing claims that customers of a state-selected vendor could evade federal capital gains taxes… or that members of the public could face confiscation of their precious metals if they did not patronize the state-partnered gold vendor.
New Burdensome Regulations – Some variations of these bills would also force hundreds of small businesses (e.g., coin shops, mints) to register as Money Services Businesses or seek some other license, subjecting them to new, stringent regulatory and examination burdens (e.g., imposing elaborate bank-like signup processes on customers) for no discernible benefit. State regulators would be forced to take responsibility for overseeing the gold market and payment activities about which they lack experience or expertise.

Other reasons lawmakers are pushing back against these bills include:

Buying, Selling, Storing, and Transacting Gold Is Already Legal – Private services to buy, sell, store, and transact using gold/silver are already legal and widely available. There is no need to involve the state.

Lack of Industry Expertise & Understanding of Negative Business Impacts – These public-private partnership bills have been drafted with little apparent knowledge of precious metal depositories and dealers, the forms of precious metals that are available in the marketplace, and industry physical market practices for gold and silver coins, bars, and rounds. Most importantly, they have been drafted without sensitivity to the negative impact they would have on in-state businesses.

Absence of Public Demand – There is little to no demand among the public to pay taxes to the government in gold or silver, or for the government to become further involved in the purchase, use, sale, or storage of the metals. (It’s usually quite the opposite… the public does not want the government involved with their gold.)

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“It’s a shame to see legislators get sidetracked by ill-conceived Big Government transactional gold schemes when they could have been passing good legislation that removes taxes on precious metals, reduces onerous industry regulation, or simply empowers state treasurers to hold gold as part of state reserves,” said Jp Cortez, executive director of the Sound Money Defense League.

The Sound Money Defense League has worked to pass positive gold and silver laws this year in Idaho and Wisconsin, as well as stopping bills that would have imposed new taxes on precious metals in states like Nebraska and Colorado.

The League also worked on the introduction of federal legislation, known as the https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/news/2026/03/19/lawmakers-introduce-silver-act-to-de-risk-us-precious-metals-market-infrastructure-000657"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">SILVER Act, addressing longstanding geographic limitations on approved depositories for precious metals tied to regulated futures markets.

Img credit: “https://www.flickr.com/photos/doddsphotography/9782331925"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">TN Flag” by https://www.flickr.com/photos/doddsphotography/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Phillip Dodds, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/deed.en"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">CC BY 2.0

ETFs Dumped Gold in March Except In Asia

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Unsurprisingly, given the significant price corrections in January and after the onset of the Iran conflict, significant amounts of metal flowed out of gold ETFs in March. However, it was a tale of regions, with North American funds accounting for the bulk of those outflows and Asian ETFs actually adding metal during the month.

On net, 84.8 tonnes of metal flowed out of gold-backed funds valued at $12 billion. It was the largest monthly outflow in dollar terms on record.

In tonnage terms, ETF holdings charted their largest monthly decline since September 2022.

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Despite the sharp March outflows, ETFs globally added a net 62 tonnes of gold in the first quarter.

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Global gold ETFs ended the quarter with $606 billion in assets under management (AUM). That was 9 percent above FY25 levels.

Asia posted its largest quarterly inflow on record, with positive flows in March helping to offset weakness in North America.

North American ETF gold holdings fell by -87 tonnes valued at $13 billion in March. That ended a 9-month streak of inflows and gave North America the distinction of being the only region to report outflows for the quarter.

Notably, North American ETFs have only charted two periods with at least nine consecutive months of inflows – during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID‑19 pandemic.

The World Gold Council pinpointed three factors that drove North American outflows:

Broader risk‑off conditions, triggered by Operation Epic Fury, weighed on most asset classes – except oil – and likely prompted US investors to raise liquidity by selling prior winners such as gold
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) entered mid-March with elevated long positioning and appear to have amplified the downside price momentum, forcing weaker hands to capitulate
Opportunity costs rose as the US dollar and interest rates moved higher, while rate expectations shifted materially from potential cuts in 2026 to rates now expected to remain unchanged through September 2027, adding uncertainty and weighing on gold demand.

European funds also reported gold outflows, but not to the extent of North America. ETFs based in Europe decreased their gold holdings by -7.3 tonnes valued at $154 million.

According to the World Gold Council, Germany, Italy, and France led monthly selling, with flows closely tracking gold price movements. There were significant outflows during the second half of March as prices fell. However, modest inflows re‑emerged toward the end of March as prices rebounded.

Meanwhile, Asian ETFs kept adding gold.

Asian funds reported a 9.9-tonne increase in gold holdings in March valued at $2 billion.

Flows were positive until the last week of the month.

Chinese funds led the buying. According to the World Gold Council, heightened safe‑haven demand amid geopolitical risks, falling local equity markets, and a weaker currency, all incentivized Chinese investors to keep piling into gold even as Americans and Europeans were selling.

Dip-buying supported ETF inflows across the region. Indian funds reported a $177 million increase in gold holdings.

Funds in other regions, including Australia and Africa, reported a modest -0.4-tonne decrease in gold holdings. According to the World Gold Council, “Despite heightened gold price volatility, Australian and South African holdings remained relatively resilient, with only minimal outflows during the month.”

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/08/paper-gold-vs-real-gold-its-important-to-know-the-difference-003038";>owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play the price of gold on the market, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when the fund sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Ft. Knox Full of Impure Gold UNFIT for International Transactions

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

The bulk of the U.S. gold reserves held in Fort Knox is made up of impure “non-standard” bars that don’t qualify for use in international settlements.

In practice, this means that most of America’s massive gold stockpile is illiquid and wouldn’t be readily accepted on the international market should the need arise.

“It's a decrepit relic just like our monetary policy is. With respect to America's gold stockpile, we hold ourselves to a lower standard than the rest of the world,” Money Metals CEO Stefan Gleason said.

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The French central bank recently https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/07/french-central-bank-sells-new-york-gold-replaces-it-with-gold-stored-in-paris-004819";>sold 129 tonnes of similar non-standard gold that was stored in New York and replaced it with higher-quality bars that will remain in France.

Notwithstanding the lack of any credible physical audits for decades, U.S. gold reserves are reported to be 8,133.5 metric tons (i.e., tonnes). That’s roughly 261.5 million troy ounces. About half of that (147.3 million ounces https://www.usmint.gov/about/tours-and-locations/fort-knox"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to the U.S. Mint) is stored at Fort Knox. The rest is spread out between the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository, and the Federal Reserve vault in New York.

America’s gold is valued at $42.22 per ounce by statute. The price does not fluctuate with market movements.

According to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), gold bars must contain 350 to 430 fine troy ounces and have a minimum fineness of 995.0 parts per thousand to be acceptable for international settlements. In fact, the "good delivery" standards across the globe have been transitioning to 999+ fineness.

Based on https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/112-41.pdf"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">documents released during a 2011 House Committee on Financial Services Hearing, however, we find only around 17 percent of the gold bars held by the U.S. government in Fort Knox meet any modern-day purity standards.

Here’s a breakdown of the purity of the gold bars held in Fort Knox:

Fineness between 899 and 901 – 64 percent
Fineness between 901.1 and 915.4 – 2 percent
Fineness between 915.5 and .917 – 17 percent
Fineness of .995 or higher – 17 percent
The average fineness of U.S. gold reserves is 916.7 (or 91.67% pure gold)

Problematic Audits, Chain-of-Custody Discrepancies, Missing Records

Keep in mind, we’re operating on guesswork here because the U.S government's gold holdings have not been audited since at least the 1970s.

In 1974, the government put together https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/23/50-year-anniversary-of-the-notorious-show-audit-of-fort-knox-gold-003484";>a publicity stunt in the name of an audit. The U.S. Treasury opened just one of its 15 Fort Knox vault compartments to politicians and reporters to view the gold and confirm its existence.

That's been called an audit. However, none of the bars that were passed around were ever matched to a serial number, assayed or tested for purity, or even verified as part of the United States’ holdings. As Sound Money Defense League Director Matthew Cortez pointed out, “It seems the made-for-TV spectacle in 1974 was more of a pep rally than any credible proof of what the amount of U.S. gold purported to be in those vaults.”

Following the 1974 publicity stunt, the U.S. Treasury says it conducted a multi-year process of opening and inventorying vault compartments and affixing new tamper-evident seals to the doors of each compartment upon completion. However, these so-called audits failed to meet https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/02/21/open-letter-to-president-donald-j-trump-dont-be-fooled-by-the-fort-knox-auditors-003856";>basic transparency or accounting standards.

Some reports have since gone missing, and there is no record of comprehensive assaying, weighing, or transactional history available to the public.

Furthermore, there is evidence that seals on vault compartments have been broken over the years, bars have been moved for unknown reasons, and seals have been re-affixed without fresh auditing. Subsequent annual reviews of the schedules of compartment seals serve only to whitewash the prior discrepancies.

In sum, the U.S. Treasury's management of U.S. gold reserves is replete with audit "no-nos" that would never pass muster at a https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-gold-storage";>responsibly run private depository.

An "audit the gold" bill https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/19/us-senator-introduces-comprehensive-gold-audit-legislation-004494";>introduced by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) last year would not only require a comprehensive audit of U.S. gold reserves, including, importantly, an accounting of any transactions involving said gold. It would also require the Treasury to refine all non-standard bars so that they meet modern requirements for international settlements -- a process that could take several years.

Why So Much Non-Standard Gold?

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How did the U.S. end up holding so many impaired gold bars that are illiquid on global markets?

It is the legacy of U.S. policy that abandoned the gold standard, leaving us with the fiat system we live with today.

Needing to expand the money supply to support his spending plans, President Franklin D. Roosevelt decided to expropriate the public’s gold and add it to the national reserves. On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/05/31/did-fdr-really-confiscate-everybodys-gold-003226";>Executive Order 6102, effectively making private gold ownership illegal.

FDR claimed the measure was to prevent “hoarding.” However, by creating an expansive definition of “hoarding,” the EO was designed to take virtually all gold coins and bars out of private hands and transfer them to the government.

Many people refer to Roosevelt's scheme as “gold confiscation,” but that overstates what actually happened. The government didn’t go door-to-door taking people’s gold. However, bureaucrats still obtained huge amounts of gold, especially gold held by institutions, depositories, and banks.

Many Americans also turned in their gold voluntarily as an act of obedience. Some likely did so because they trusted the government, others out of a sense of patriotism, and some probably turned their gold in out of fear.

Everyone was paid $20.67 per ounce for their gold. But six months later, FDR formally devalued the dollar by some 40 percent when he declared gold worth $35 per ounce.

Much of the confiscated gold was in the form of coins that were generally 90 percent pure. At the time, private banks, along with the Federal Reserve, held a large number of coins. That was because Federal Reserve notes were redeemable for gold.

However, with private ownership of gold effectively banned, people would no longer be able to trade paper for metals, and there was no need to hold on to a bunch of coins. The government melted the coins down and formed them into bars, which now sit in Fort Knox vaults (as far as we know).

In a 1994 essay published by The Journal of Economic Education, William C. Wood called the Fort Knox depository “an artifact of the gold standard days.”

“The gold currently in Fort Knox came from the melting of Depression-era gold coins, from lend-lease arrangements in War II, and from government operations under the gold standard.”

Wood specifically noted, “The gold resulting from melting of coinage has considerably lower quality than the ‘fine’ or ‘good delivery’ gold commonly used in international trade. The majority of the gold in Fort Knox is the lower-quality coin gold.”

In some ways, it makes sense that U.S. gold reserves are impure and useless on the international market. It reflects the nature of the fiat system that replaced it.

Mises Institute Editor in Chief Ryan McMaken called the U.S. gold reserves “a legacy of theft and lies," pointing out that the gold reserve was never intended to be a “static, untouchable hoard of the U.S. government.”

“It was supposed to be there for Americans and other users of dollars who traded in their dollars for gold. Gold was supposed to flow in and out. Then, the U.S. government slammed the doors of the federal gold vaults shut and declared ‘the gold is all ours forever.’ Like most everything else the U.S. government ‘owns,’ the gold in the U.S. gold reserves is there due to many years of lies, gaslighting, and deception. The gold is there because the U.S. regime defaulted on its debts and reneged on its promises to back dollars in gold.”

Gold, Jobs, and the Story Behind France’s Move

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey opens with a simple but effective point. People often give one reason for doing something, and that reason may be true, but it may not be the whole truth. He uses a personal childhood story to introduce that idea, then applies it to governments, central banks, and financial markets.

That theme ties the entire episode together. Maharrey connects France’s recent gold reshuffling, war-driven swings in gold and silver, and the latest U.S. jobs report into one broader message about risk, trust, and the steady loss of purchasing power in a fiat system.

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Headlines Are Driving Volatility, but Not the Bigger Trend

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Maharrey says he is recording on Wednesday morning as reports circulate about a possible ceasefire in the Iran-U.S.-Israeli conflict. He says that would be welcome news if it holds, both from a humanitarian standpoint and because it could cool some of the sharp short-term moves in precious metals.

Still, he stresses that investors are dealing with what he calls regime uncertainty. In his view, nobody knows what political leaders will do next, how Iran will respond, or how quickly markets may reverse based on the next headline. That uncertainty has produced wide swings in both gold and silver, making short-term price action difficult to interpret.

His advice is not to get too caught up in the daily drama. He argues that while war headlines can move markets in the moment, the deeper fundamentals remain more important over time. Those include debt, monetary conditions, supply and demand, and the continued weakening of fiat currency.

France Sold Gold in New York and Kept the Replacement at Home

The main focus of the episode is France’s decision to sell all of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/07/french-central-bank-sells-new-york-gold-replaces-it-with-gold-stored-in-paris-004819";>gold it had stored in New York and replace it with higher-quality bars that will remain in France. Maharrey says the move involved 129 tons of gold, about 5% of France’s 2,437-ton reserve stockpile.

He notes that France has the fourth-largest gold reserves in the world. By selling older bars purchased long ago at much lower prices and replacing them with reserve-grade bullion, the Bank of France reportedly booked a large gain, nearly $13 billion, or €11 billion in foreign exchange income in 2025.

According to the official explanation, the transaction was technical. The bank said that in 2025 and early 2026, it aligned the remaining 5% of its reserve stock with current technical guidelines while leaving the total volume of gold reserves unchanged. On paper, this was about quality, not politics.

What the “Upgrade” Really Means

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Maharrey explains that the bars France sold were described as non-standard gold bars. In practical terms, that means they varied in purity and size and were not ideal for modern reserve use or international settlement.

To make the concept easier to understand, he compares it to junk silver. Older U.S. coins, such as pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and half dollars, still contain real silver and still carry value, but they do not have the same purity as a .999 fine silver round or bar. The metal is still there, but the format is less efficient for certain modern uses.

He says the same idea applies to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/02/central-bank-gold-buying-rebounded-in-february-004807";>central bank gold. France sold bars that did not fit current reserve standards and replaced them with bars that did. Under London Bullion Market Association standards, acceptable reserve bars generally need to contain 350 to 430 fine troy ounces and meet a minimum fineness of 995 parts per thousand.

The Official Reason May Be True, but Not Complete

Maharrey does not dismiss the Bank of France explanation. In fact, he says it makes sense. If the gold in New York did not meet modern reserve specifications, it would be easier to sell it there and buy replacement bars in Europe than to ship, refine, and recast older stock.

But he argues that the official explanation likely leaves out an important second motive. By moving gold out of U.S. reach and keeping it inside French borders, France reduces potential exposure to American political and financial pressure. In that sense, Maharrey sees the move as strategic as well as technical.

His broader point is that governments rarely lie outright when explaining decisions. More often, they offer one real reason while leaving another, more politically sensitive reason unstated.

France Has Done This Before

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To support that idea, Maharrey looks back to the 1960s. He says France already repatriated most of its gold from the United States during the Charles de Gaulle era, and that earlier move was unmistakably political.

Between 1963 and 1966, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/10/05/why-france-repatriated-3313-tonnes-from-new-york-and-london-in-the-1960s-003516";>France secretly brought home 3,000 tons of gold from the U.S. Maharrey says the operation even had a code name meaning “emptying the pocket.” In his telling, France was deeply skeptical of American monetary policy and growing U.S. dollar issuance.

He argues that this helped weaken the Bretton Woods system created in 1944. Under that arrangement, the U.S. dollar served as the world’s reserve currency, foreign currencies were linked to the dollar, and the dollar was convertible into gold. A few years after France reclaimed much of its bullion, President Richard Nixon ended gold convertibility and pushed the world fully into the fiat era.

Maharrey’s implication is that France distrusted U.S. monetary behavior then, and many countries may be feeling similar doubts now.

A De-Dollarization Signal

Maharrey places France’s move in the wider context of De-dollarization. He says governments around the world are increasingly uneasy with the dollar’s central role in global finance, especially after the U.S. used the dollar system and foreign reserves as tools of geopolitical pressure through sanctions.

Even when those sanctions are politically justified, Maharrey says they send a message to every other country. If access to reserves can be restricted when relations with Washington deteriorate, then holding assets under U.S. influence may carry more risk than many governments once assumed.

He argues that this matters because the United States depends heavily on global demand for dollars and dollar-linked assets. That demand helps absorb the effects of federal borrowing, deficit spending, and monetary expansion. If the world becomes even slightly less willing to hold dollars, long-term strain on the currency increases.

Other Countries Are Reaching Similar Conclusions

France, Maharrey says, is not alone. He points to calls within https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/06/26/germans-and-italians-bring-our-gold-home-004153";>Germany to bring home gold held in New York. During the Cold War, storing reserves in the United States made strategic sense because it kept them farther from Soviet influence and inside the Western alliance system.

Today, he suggests, logic may be weakening. Concerns about Washington’s unpredictability and willingness to weaponize economic power have caused some European voices to question whether New York is still the safest place for allied gold.

He cites arguments from German figures who say it is too risky to keep reserves in the United States and that the Bundesbank should bring them home. Maharrey says some people will dismiss those concerns, but the key issue is not whether everyone agrees. The key issue is that such concerns are influencing policy.

Gold at Home Means Less Counterparty Risk

Maharrey says the broader trend is clear. Central banks increasingly want gold on home soil, where it is directly under national control. He cites a World Gold Council survey showing that more central banks now prefer domestic storage than just a few years ago, especially after the freezing of Russian reserves following the invasion of Ukraine.

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He connects that lesson directly to private investors. Gold held by another party introduces counterparty risk. Whether it is a central bank storing bullion abroad or an individual relying on someone else to hold metal, access and control can become major issues when conditions change.

He does acknowledge that home storage is not perfect. Gold and silver kept at home can be lost, stolen, or damaged. Third-party storage has benefits, but it also introduces its own set of risks, including reliance on another institution. His point is not that one answer fits all. It is important that investors think seriously about tradeoffs instead of assuming convenience equals safety.

The Jobs Report May Be Telling a False Story

In the final major segment, Maharrey turns to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. He argues that the monthly non-farm payrolls release is one of the most influential reports in the market, yet one of the least reliable in its initial form.

He says the headline reaction to the latest report was upbeat. The consensus forecast called for 59,000 new jobs in March, but the BLS reported 178,000. That sounded like a strong beat and was widely treated as evidence of labor market resilience.

On the surface, Maharrey says, such a report would normally reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and weigh on gold. But because markets were closed for Good Friday, and because geopolitical developments were dominating attention, that reaction was not fully expressed.

The Revisions Matter More Than the Headlines

Maharrey argues that the real story was in the revisions. In the same release, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/04/another-great-jobs-report-or-was-it-004815";>BLS revised the previous two months by a combined 7,000 jobs. January was revised higher, but February was revised sharply lower, to the point that the month showed a significant loss of jobs rather than growth.

That is central to his criticism. The number that drives headlines, market reactions, and policy commentary is often not the number that survives later scrutiny. By the time the revisions come in, public attention has usually moved on.

He says that when the latest three months are viewed together, the labor picture looks much weaker than the headlines suggest. His larger point is that the jobs number is never really final and often paints too rosy a picture on first release.

A Pattern of Downward Revision

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Maharrey says this is not unusual. He points to previous revisions, including annual benchmark adjustments and changes to the birth-death model, as evidence that job creation has often been overstated in the initial reports.

He notes that many job totals in recent years were later revised lower, sometimes by large amounts. His argument is not that revisions themselves are suspicious. Data collection is difficult, and revisions are part of the process. His concern is that the revisions so often seem to move in the same direction.

That matters because markets react to the first print, not the quieter correction that comes later. As a result, investors and policymakers may be making decisions based on a picture of the labor market that is stronger than reality.

The Bigger Point Is Purchasing Power

Maharrey closes by tying the entire episode together. Whether the topic is central banks bringing gold home or markets reacting to flawed economic data, he says the underlying issue is the same. Confidence in institutions is weakening, while fiat currency continues to lose value.

He reminds listeners that the Federal Reserve openly targets ongoing inflation, which means a steady erosion of purchasing power over time. In that environment, he argues that short-term volatility should not distract from the bigger case for physical gold and silver.

For Maharrey, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/04/war-headlines-shook-prices-but-the-bigger-silver-story-is-still-intact-004813";>war headlines may come and go, but the long-term drivers remain in place. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/02/uncle-sams-balance-sheet-looks-like-bankruptcy-004805";>Debt is still growing, monetary debasement is still ongoing, and geopolitical distrust is still rising. That is why he ends where Money Metals often does: with the case for owning real metal as protection against a system that becomes more fragile the longer it runs.

How to Test Gold & Silver at Home (5 Proven Methods) - Money Metals Exchange

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

It looks like gold or silver, but you do not want to damage it, overpay for it, or get fooled by plating. That is the real challenge with home testing. You can learn a lot at home, but no single DIY test will authenticate every item with certainty.

If you are wondering how to test silver and gold at home, the safest approach is to combine several simple checks rather than rely on one trick. Combine stamps, visual inspection, magnet response, weight, dimensions, density, and, where appropriate, acid testing. Then use professional XRF testing when the item is valuable, unusual, or giving mixed signals.

What Are the Best At-Home Tests for Gold and Silver?

Home tests can help you identify obvious fakes, plated items, and pieces that deserve a closer look. They are especially https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/gold-jewelry";>useful for jewelry, coins, bars, rounds, scrap, and inherited lots.

The best ways to test gold and silver at home include the following:

Hallmarks and stamps
Visual wear clues
Magnet tests
Weight and size checks
Density or specific gravity tests
Acid testing, if legal and used carefully

The strongest non-home confirmations are:

Jeweler or coin shop visits with XRF
Lab testing or fire assay for high-value cases

Start Here Before Any Testing

Before you begin, wipe the item gently with a soft cloth so dirt and fingerprints do not affect your inspection. Then gather a few basic tools:

Loupe or magnifier
Strong magnet
Digital scale
Ruler or calipers
Testing stone or ceramic surface
Gloves

Do not use destructive tests on collectible coins, heirlooms, or antiques unless you are willing to risk damage. Also remember that acid kits may be restricted in some countries.

Check the Markings First

Before trying magnets, density math, or acid, start with the stamp. Marks can tell you a lot quickly, but they can also give false confidence if you do not know what they mean.

Common Gold Marks

Gold is often stamped with either a karat mark or a fineness mark:

10K = about 41.7% gold
14K = about 58.5% gold
18K = about 75.0% gold
22K = about 91.6% gold
24K = nearly pure gold

You may also see:

417 for 10K
585 for 14K
750 for 18K
916 for 22K
999 or 999.9 for very pure gold

Imported or older pieces may include maker’s marks, assay marks, or national hallmarks. In some markets, such as India, you may also see BIS-style marks like 22K916.

Common Silver Marks

Silver is usually marked by purity rather than karat:

Sterling
925 or .925
900
800
999 or .999

Sterling and 925 usually mean the item is 92.5% silver. Marks like 900 and 800 often appear on older coins, flatware, or imported pieces. https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/what-is-fine-silver";>Fine silver is usually marked 999.

You may also see coin silver, which usually means a lower purity than sterling, often around 90%, though older standards vary.

What Stamps Do and Do Not Prove

A stamp tells you what the item is supposed to be. It does not prove the item is genuine. Fake stamps are common on plated jewelry, counterfeit bullion, and low-cost imports.

That is why a sterling mark is a clue, not a verdict. The same goes for 14K, 18K, or any other gold stamp. A ring can be marked 14K and still be plated, altered, counterfeit, or mixed with non-gold parts such as solder, pins, or springs.

The rule is simple: marks tell you what to investigate, not what to conclude.

Visual Clues That Suggest Plating or Base Metal

Visual inspection is one of the best first-pass checks because plating often fails in predictable places. Look first at the spots that wear fastest:

Ring bottoms
Clasp edges
Chain ends
Bracelet links
Pendant bails
Coin rims
Corners
Raised design points

The clearest warning sign is a different color showing underneath the surface. On gold-colored items, look for silvery, reddish, or dull gray metal beneath worn spots. On silver-colored items, watch for yellow, brass-colored, or coppery patches.

Also look for:

Flaking
Bubbling
Blistering
Patchy finish
Uneven wear

Real gold and silver do not peel like paint. If the finish looks like it is lifting or chipping away, plating is likely.

Check hidden areas too, such as the inside of a ring or the back of a pendant. Plated pieces often look convincing from the front but cheaper in less visible spots.

Tarnish can provide clues, but do not overread it. Real silver tarnishes, but plated items can tarnish too. Gold alloys can also dull. Use visual inspection as a filter, not a final answer.

What the Magnet Test Can and Cannot Tell You

Gold and https://www.aixihardware.com/is-silver-magnetic-or-non-magnetic/";>silver are generally non-magnetic, so strong attraction to a magnet is a red flag. That makes the magnet test a helpful way to rule out some obvious fakes.

But it is weak on its own. Many fake items are also non-magnetic. Jewelry can also include clasps, springs, or mixed-metal parts that complicate the result.

So use the magnet test to eliminate obvious impostors, not to confirm authenticity.

Weight, Dimensions, and Density Checks

Why Density Matters

Gold and silver each have distinctive densities. Pure gold is about 19.3 g/cm³. Pure silver is about 10.5 g/cm³. Common alloys vary, but density still helps you spot major mismatches.

A fake piece may look right and even carry the right stamp, yet still be too light or too heavy for its size. That is where weight and density checks help.

Compare Weight to Known Dimensions

For coins and bars, this is one of the best at-home methods. Reputable bullion products have published specs for:

Weight
Diameter
Thickness
Edge details

If your piece is supposed to be a https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/rounds/1-oz-silver-rounds";>one-ounce silver round or gold bar, compare it to the official numbers. Use a digital scale and calipers if possible. Small wear on circulated coins is normal, but large differences are a red flag.

This method works best on bullion and standardized pieces. It is less useful on handmade jewelry, gemstone pieces, and repaired items.

Simple At-Home Specific Gravity Test

A specific gravity test compares dry weight to the object’s apparent weight in water.

Step 1: Weigh the dry item in grams.
Step 2: Suspend the item fully in water without letting it touch the bottom or sides.
Step 3: Record the submerged weight.
Step 4: Use this formula:

Specific gravity = dry weight ÷ (dry weight - submerged weight)

A result near silver’s range may support a silver claim. A much higher value may fit gold, depending on purity.

Common mistakes include:

Air bubbles on the item
Chains or odd shapes not fully submerging
Stones, clasps, or solder distorting results
Using a scale that is not precise enough

Use room-temperature water and test only simple, solid-looking pieces when possible.

Limits of Density Testing

Density testing is helpful, but it is not universal. It can be distorted by:

Hollow jewelry
Stones and settings
Solder joints
Filled items
Plated pieces

A gold-filled bracelet may test closer to gold than you expect. A ring with a large stone may seem far less dense than the metal itself.

Test	Best For	Good For Gold?	Good For Silver?	Can Plating Fool It?	Risk of Damage
Hallmarks / stamps	Quick first-pass screening	Yes	Yes	Yes	None
Visual inspection	Spotting wear and color change	Yes	Yes	Sometimes	None
Magnet test	Eliminating obvious wrong metals	Limited	Limited	Yes	None
Weight and dimensions	Coins, bars, standard-size pieces	Yes	Yes	Sometimes	None
Density / specific gravity	Solid pieces without stones or hollow sections	Good	Good	Sometimes	Low
Ice test	Silver rounds, bars, flat pieces	No	Limited	Yes	None
Ping test	Coins and rounds	Limited	Limited	Yes	Low
Acid test	Jewelry and scrap pieces	Good	Good	Sometimes	Moderate
XRF test	Fast professional confirmation	Excellent	Excellent	Less often	None
Fire assay	High-value items needing maximum certainty	Excellent	Not typical	No	High

The Ice Test for Silver

The ice test is popular because it is quick and non-destructive. It relies on silver’s very high thermal conductivity. When you place ice on silver, it often melts rapidly and can seem to “stick” because of the fast heat transfer.

This works best on flat pieces like bars, rounds, coins, or smooth jewelry surfaces.

The problem is that the test is only a clue. Copper also conducts heat well, and silver-plated items may still perform convincingly. So the ice test can support a silver claim, but it cannot prove purity.

The Ping Test for Silver

The ping test is best for coins and rounds. A genuine silver coin often gives a clear, sustained ring when gently tapped, while many base-metal fakes sound dull and short.

Still, this is not a reliable stand-alone test. Damage, dirt, poor striking, or odd shapes can change the sound even on genuine pieces. Use it cautiously and only as a supporting clue.

Acid Testing Gold and Silver at Home

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How Acid Testing Works

Acid testing is one of the stronger home methods because it tests metal from the item rather than just color or appearance. The standard method is to rub the item on a black testing stone, apply the correct test acid to the streak, and observe the reaction.

If the streak remains, the metal likely meets that purity threshold. If it fades or disappears, it does not.

Gold Acid Testing

With gold, start low and work upward by karat. Apply 10K acid first, then 14K, then 18K, and so on. The highest acid that does not dissolve the streak gives you a rough estimate of purity.

For example, if the 14K line survives but the 18K line dissolves it, the item is likely around 14K.

Silver Acid Testing

Silver acid kits often rely on nitric-acid-based reactions, and that matters because nitric acid may be restricted depending on where you live. If you cannot legally obtain the proper silver test acid, your home options are more limited.

In those cases, it makes more sense to use non-destructive screening methods and then get an XRF scan from a jeweler or coin shop.

Risks and Common Mistakes

Acid testing is helpful, but it is not foolproof. Common problems include:

Surface plating giving a misleading result
Scratching too lightly and testing only the outer layer
Scratching too deeply and damaging the item
Using the wrong acid
Poor lighting
Contaminated testing stone

Acid testing is best for scrap and low-stakes pieces. It is a poor choice for collectible coins, antiques, or anything where damage matters.

Tests You Should Not Overtrust

Some home tests are repeated so often online that they sound more reliable than they are.

Do not overtrust:

Magnet tests
Ice tests
Tarnish tests
Smell tests
Lick tests
Visual color alone
A stamp without follow-up checks

A non-magnetic item is not automatically real. A fast-melting ice cube does not confirm silver. Tarnish can appear on plated items too. Quick, cheap, non-technical tests are usually just screening tools.

Gold-Filled, Vermeil, Sterling, Coin Silver, and Silver-Plated

These terms matter because they do not all describe the same thing.

Gold-filled means a bonded outer layer of real gold over base metal. Thicker than simple plating, but not solid gold.
Vermeil means https://www.moneymetals.com/sterling-silver-price";>sterling silver covered with gold. It contains real silver and real gold, but the gold is only on the surface.
Sterling or 925 usually means 92.5% silver.
Coin silver usually means a lower purity, often around 90%, though older pieces vary.
Silver-plated means a thin layer of silver over base metal.

This is why “real silver” can still mean different purity levels. It is also why a gold-colored item may contain real gold only on the surface. Labels, wear patterns, and test results need to be read together.

A Simple Decision Tree for At-Home Testing

If It Is Jewelry

Start with the stamp. Look for marks like 10K, 14K, 18K, 925, or sterling. Then inspect wear points. If another color shows through, plating is likely.

Next, try a magnet test. Strong attraction is a bad sign. Then weigh the piece if it is simple and all-metal. If it is low-value scrap and you accept the risk, an acid test may help. If it is antique, valuable, or collectible, skip destructive testing.

If It Is a Coin or Bar

Start with published specs. Verify dimensions, weight, and design details. Compare edge lettering, relief, finish, and overall look to a known genuine piece.

Use magnet and ping tests only as supporting clues. Avoid scratching or acid testing collectible coins unless you are prepared to reduce their value.

If Results Conflict

Stop guessing. If the stamp says one thing but the weight, color, or test results suggest another, get an XRF scan. This is where home testing stops being efficient.

When to Go to a Jeweler, Pawn Shop, or Coin Shop

Some situations are better handled by a professional right away:

Large estate lots
High-value bullion
Unclear or suspicious stamps
Mixed-metal items
Suspected plating
Heirlooms or collectibles where damage matters

A jeweler, pawn shop, or coin shop can often sort questionable pieces quickly. In most cases, the best next step is XRF testing.

What XRF Can Tell You, and What It Cannot

XRF, or X-ray fluorescence, is fast, non-destructive, and useful for reading alloy composition. It can usually tell you whether a piece is closer to 10K, 14K, sterling, fine silver, or some other alloy.

That makes it far better than stacking weak home tests together.

But XRF has limits. Some machines read mostly the surface or near-surface layer, so heavily plated items can sometimes appear better than they really are. XRF is still one of the best screening tools available, but it is not magic. Surface composition is not always the same as full composition.

How to Tell if Gold Is Real

Watch the video below to see each test that will help you check if gold is real:

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How to Test Gold and Silver at Home: Frequently Asked Questions

Can fake gold pass the magnet test?

Yes. Many fake items are non-magnetic, so passing the test proves very little.

Can fake silver pass the ice test?

Yes. The ice test can be fooled by other conductive metals or plated items.

Does 925 always mean sterling silver?

Usually, yes. But the stamp can still be fake.

Can you test gold without acid?

Yes. Use stamps, visual inspection, weight, dimensions, magnet response, and density checks.

How do you tell plated jewelry from solid metal?

Look for wear points, color showing underneath, flaking finish, and mismatched test results.

Can you test coins the same way as jewelry?

Not exactly. Coins and bars are better checked by weight, size, and design details. Jewelry is more complicated because of stones, solder, and hollow construction.

Is acid testing safe for antiques and collectible coins?

Usually not. It can scratch the piece and reduce value.

Conclusion

Figuring out how to test gold and silver at home can be very useful before you buy, sell, or appraise a piece. However, the safest approach is also the smartest one: use multiple checks, trust stamps only provisionally, and treat home tests as https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-verifier-pmv-investor-sigma-metalytics/2194";>screening tools rather than final proof. Visual clues, weight, dimensions, density, and acid testing can all help, but each has limits.

When the item is valuable, unusual, or giving mixed signals, stop guessing and get professional confirmation. In most cases, that means XRF.

This is not about turning your kitchen table into a laboratory. It is about protecting yourself from plated junk, avoiding bad assumptions, and knowing when certainty is worth paying for.