Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Rhona O’Connell Examines Gold’s Crosscurrents

Sat, 07 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

On the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey spoke with https://www.stonex.com/en-us/market-experts/rhona-o-connell/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rhona O’Connell, StoneX’s head of market analysis for Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. O’Connell discussed the shifting U.S. political landscape, interest rates, debt, private credit, and the changing structure of Asia’s precious metals market.

O’Connell described StoneX as a global financial services company that began in Chicago in 1923, when founder F.C. Stone sold eggs door to door. The company now employs about 5,000 people, reports billions in revenue, and serves roughly 50,000 corporate clients and more than a quarter-million retail clients.

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O’Connell’s Career Began in Mining

O’Connell’s https://www.linkedin.com/in/rhona-oconnell-5612987/";>precious metals experience stretches back to the early 1980s, when she worked in corporate development at Consolidated Gold Fields, then the world’s second-largest gold producer behind Anglo. Her work included a 10-year silver-market outlook prepared in 1982 for a feasibility study and a later study of platinum-group metals.

After leading the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters, O’Connell joined StoneX in 2019 to build its London-based metals analysis team. StoneX covers precious and base metals alongside agricultural commodities, energy, foreign exchange, and other financial services.

Election Uncertainty Could Weigh on the Dollar

The interview took place after a U.S. election https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/05/what-does-the-blue-wave-mean-for-gold-and-silver-005347";>that appeared likely to give Democrats a majority of at least four seats in the Senate and close to 100 seats in the House. O’Connell said the immediate market reaction included a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/27/how-could-the-midterm-elections-impact-the-gold-market-005323";>weaker dollar and somewhat lower yields, as investors anticipated that fiscal stimulus could be constrained.

She said the dollar and interest rates could soften in the medium term, but the outlook depends on how effectively the new Congress acts. A smooth transition to workable policies could limit further dollar weakness. If lawmakers fail to establish a clear direction, uncertainty could return and put additional pressure on the dollar.

Inflation and the Fed Remain Key Risks

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O’Connell said the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/29/fed-hits-pause-button-announces-new-meeting-format-005329";>Federal Reserve’s decisions will depend on inflation, the labor market, and events in the Gulf. Unemployment was around 4.2%, which she described as close to full employment, while inflation had remained above the Fed’s 2% target for 67 consecutive months.

StoneX’s strategy team expected a rate increase in December and another in the first quarter. O’Connell also heard a somewhat more hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh at the October Fed press conference than in the prior two meetings. She said two more rate increases were possible, depending in part on energy prices and supply disruptions.

Even if Gulf tensions ease, O’Connell cautioned that oil prices and inflation may not fall immediately. Disruptions to crude, distillates, jet fuel, and other supply chains could take time to unwind. She also pointed to an approximately 2.5-percentage-point gap between CPI and PPI measures, warning that manufacturers and others in the supply chain may eventually pass some cost pressures to consumers.

“The lead time for inflation to be brought under control in the States is probably a good six months longer than some people think it is,” O’Connell said.

High Yields Could Limit Gold’s Gains

O’Connell described gold as caught between supportive and negative forces. A weaker dollar could help lift gold toward $4,200, but persistently https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/02/what-sparked-golds-off-selloff-005336";>high real bond yields could weigh on the metal. “If we’re looking at persistently high real bond yields,” she said, “that works against gold.”

At the start of the year, when gold was above $5,000, O’Connell warned that the market looked crowded and forecast $3,800 by year-end. During the interview, she characterized her outlook as neutral within a broad 3,800-to-4,500 range, reflecting the competing tailwinds and headwinds.

Maharrey raised the possibility of gold falling as low as $3,500 before recovering. O’Connell said a major economic shock could initially prompt distress selling, followed by renewed demand for gold: “You’d get distress selling first, and then it would pick up again.”

She cited an OECD warning at the September IMF and World Bank meetings that limited fiscal room had eroded governments’ ability to respond to future shocks.

Debt and Private Credit Add to Financial Strains

O’Connell put U.S. government debt at about 123% of GDP, while Maharrey cited a national debt of roughly $40 trillion. She said the Fed’s room to maneuver is constrained by high debt levels across governments, corporations, and households.

She is also watching the growth of private credit. Investors may expect to withdraw money over a three- or six-month period, while private credit funds hold longer-term assets. O’Connell said some investors seeking withdrawals are being limited to about 5% of their holdings.

She compared the structure to risks that were overlooked before the 2007 subprime crisis, while stressing that she was not predicting another global financial crisis. Banks’ movement of credit into less-regulated areas, combined with maturity mismatches, concerns her. “I’m not comfortable with that at all,” she said.

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Singapore and Hong Kong Vie for Asia’s Bullion Trade

O’Connell highlighted competition between Singapore and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/24/hong-kong-gold-futures-contract-reports-physical-delivery-record-as-the-citys-role-as-a-gold-hub-grows-005156";>Hong Kong to become Asia’s leading precious metals hub. At the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference in Singapore in June, she heard concerns about fragmentation in the market and questions about China’s influence in Hong Kong.

She said the two hubs could bring complementary expertise and resources to the market if they cooperate. Asia has long been central to physical gold demand, making the efficient movement of metal important to the market’s liquidity and development. “It’s a question of expediting flows and not going for supremacy, but trying to make it holistic,” O’Connell said.

O’Connell also noted that the issue was appearing in specialist industry discussions, including at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference. She said it remains uncertain whether Singapore and Hong Kong will work together or compete for supremacy.

Finding StoneX Research

O’Connell directed listeners to StoneX.com, where the company publishes market intelligence and analysis across its business lines. She said StoneX has analysts on the ground in regions including Latin America and North America, covering markets from agriculture and dairy to precious metals.

Blue Wave, Red Ink, and Gold

Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up don’t miss a wonderfully informative interview with Rhona O’Connell, Head of Market Analysis with StoneX Financial – a global leader when it comes to financial services, commercial hedging, foreign exchange and physical commodities. Rhona has over 40 years of experience as a commodities analyst and is a recognized authority in the precious metals sector.

Mike Maharrey and his guest this week dive into the post-U.S. election landscape and its implications on the precious metals markets and the dollar. Rhona shares some interesting comments on how a change in Congress and the pending turnover among Senate Banking Committee leadership could provide some new pressure on the Federal Reserve as they face monetary policy decisions in the months ahead, and what that may mean for Fed decisions, since, sadly, it’s always all about the Fed.

So, be sure to stick around for our exclusive interview with StoneX’s Rhona O’Connell about those topics and much more, coming up after this week’s market update. And if you enjoy this material, we would like to remind you once again to please do us a favor and like and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content. We would be greatly appreciative if you would do that, thank you.

Gold and silver are attempting to regain their footing this week after a brutal October. And now, investors have something else to consider: a dramatic shift in the political landscape following Tuesday's midterm elections.

A Democratic blue wave has swept through Washington, giving the party control of both chambers of Congress and setting the stage for two years of political gridlock with President Donald Trump.

The election results initially gave precious metals a lift, with gold climbing back above $4,000 an ounce and silver recovering above $52. But whether that modest enthusiasm can translate into a sustained rally remains to be seen.

So, what does a divided Washington mean for gold and silver? And could the political shakeup actually help relieve some of the pressures weighing on precious metals? We'll get into that in a moment.

First, let's look at the markets.

Gold is trading at $4,073 an ounce, having recovered from last week's plunge below $4,000. The yellow metal is up nearly $200 since last Friday’s low close and is up 4.8% now on the week.

Silver checks in at $52.41, also bouncing off its recent lows. Poor man’s gold is up more than $2.50 this week or 5.3% with a few trading hours left in the day.

Both metals remain well below their earlier highs, and neither has convincingly broken out of its recent trading range. But after weeks of relentless selling, there are at least some signs the market may be stabilizing.

Gold's technical picture has improved somewhat. The recent decline increasingly looks like a correction rather than a complete breakdown of the longer-term trend. Gold has encountered selling pressure around $4,150, but buyers have been showing renewed interest at lower prices.

Silver's outlook is a little more complicated. The white metal continues to underperform gold, and its longer-term technical indicators remain weak. But after falling below $50, silver has shown signs of recovering some momentum here in recent days.

For now, the question is whether this is the beginning of a meaningful rebound or simply a temporary bounce in a market that remains under pressure.

And that brings us to the biggest story of the week: the midterm elections.

Democrats scored sweeping victories Tuesday, taking control of both the House and Senate. That means President Trump will face a much more hostile Congress during the final two years of his term.

We can expect plenty of investigations, political battles, and fights over spending and the debt ceiling.

But here's the interesting part for precious metals investors: Political gridlock could actually be somewhat favorable for gold and silver.

As our own Mike Maharrey explained in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/05/what-does-the-blue-wave-mean-for-gold-and-silver-005347";>an article published this week, the new balance of power could make it much harder for Washington to enact additional tax cuts or major new spending initiatives.

And while that might sound like a recipe for economic restraint, nobody should expect Congress to suddenly discover fiscal responsibility.

Democrats and Republicans have both demonstrated a remarkable willingness to spend money the government doesn't have. They just disagree about where to spend it.

The national debt is already approaching $40 trillion, and annual interest expenses are consuming an increasingly large share of federal revenues.

Those obligations aren't going away because one party or the other won an election.

In fact, the next two years could bring even more uncertainty surrounding government funding and the federal debt ceiling.

And historically, uncertainty about Washington's ability to manage its finances has often encouraged investors to seek the relative safety of gold.

Analysts at Metals Focus believe the election results could be modestly bullish for precious metals. Their reasoning is that political gridlock may limit additional fiscal stimulus, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.

That could eventually mean lower bond yields and a weaker dollar, both of which would generally be supportive of gold and silver.

But there's a catch.

The Fed is still dealing with stubborn inflation, and policymakers remain concerned that rising energy costs could keep pushing consumer prices higher. Traders are still expecting another interest-rate hike in December, and possibly another early next year.

So even with the election behind us, monetary policy remains a major obstacle for precious metals in the near term. And much of that inflation problem is tied to developments overseas.

Oil prices have retreated recently, falling about 1% Tuesday to their lowest level in nearly four weeks as investors weighed the possibility of diplomatic progress in both Ukraine and Iran.

Any meaningful progress toward ending these conflicts could help ease pressure on energy prices. And that would be welcome news for the Federal Reserve.

The war involving Iran has contributed to a major energy shock this year, driving up oil prices and making the inflation problem much harder to contain.

Ironically, geopolitical instability that might ordinarily boost demand for gold has instead been contributing to selling pressure.

That's because higher energy prices raise inflation expectations, which in turn encourage the Fed to keep interest rates elevated. And higher interest rates tend to weigh on precious metals, at least in the short run.

A lasting settlement with Iran could change that equation by reducing energy costs, easing inflation concerns, and giving the Fed more room to lower rates.

Silver could benefit especially from such a development, since lower energy costs and improved economic conditions would also support industrial demand.

Of course, there's no guarantee these diplomatic efforts will succeed. And even if the fighting ends, damaged infrastructure and disrupted supply chains won't be repaired overnight.

But the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions is one more factor investors are beginning to consider.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is facing its own inflation dilemma. The ECB left interest rates unchanged Thursday but signaled that another hike could be coming in December as elevated energy costs continue threatening price stability.

So, this isn't just an American problem. Central banks around the world are struggling to balance inflation risks against the economic damage caused by higher borrowing costs.

And that brings us back to the bigger picture for gold and silver.

The markets have spent the past several weeks reacting to every inflation report, every change in interest-rate expectations, and every new geopolitical headline. But the fundamental problems underlying the global monetary system haven't gone away.

Governments are deeply indebted. Deficits remain enormous. And central banks face growing pressure to keep the financial system functioning without allowing inflation to get completely out of hand.

That's an extraordinarily difficult balancing act.

The Fed may be talking about additional rate hikes today. But how long can it maintain that position if economic growth slows, financial markets stumble, or Washington's borrowing costs become even more burdensome?

That's the dilemma facing policymakers.

And it's one reason the longer-term case for owning physical gold and silver remains compelling, regardless of which political party controls Congress.

There's also an important distinction between the two metals right now.

Gold continues to benefit from central bank demand and its established role as a monetary safe haven. Silver, meanwhile, is more sensitive to industrial demand and has suffered considerably more during the recent correction.

But silver also has the potential to outperform dramatically when investment demand returns.

The gold-to-silver ratio remains elevated after silver's recent collapse, suggesting the white metal is relatively inexpensive compared with gold. That doesn't guarantee an immediate rebound. Silver's short-term technical picture remains uncertain, and additional volatility is entirely possible.

But for investors with a longer time horizon, the combination of silver's monetary appeal, industrial applications, and historically volatile price behavior remains worth watching.

The bottom line is that this week's election results may have changed the political balance of power in Washington, but they haven't fundamentally changed the country's financial predicament.

The government is still spending far more than it collects. The national debt continues growing. And the Federal Reserve remains caught between fighting inflation and supporting an increasingly debt-dependent economy.

Political gridlock may slow the pace of new legislation, but it won't make those problems disappear.

And while gold and silver investors have endured a rough stretch, the underlying reasons for owning sound money remain very much intact.

In the end, elections come and go. Political majorities rise and fall. But Washington's appetite for borrowing and spending seems to be one of the few things that never changes. And that is something precious metals investors would do well to remember.

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I'm Mike Maharrey, and I'm joined today by Rhona O'Connell. She is head of market analysis covering Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia at StoneX. Excited to have you on the show today, Rona. How you doing?

Rhona O’ Connell: Excited to be here, Michael. Thank you for inviting me.

Mike Maharrey: Well, it's great to talk to you and plenty to talk about. We just had this crazy election here in the US. I'm sure that's going to have some impact on the markets. But before we dig into those things, I would like you to take an opportunity to give folks a quick idea of what StoneX does. I don't want to assume people are familiar with the company. And so if you can just describe your work, that would be great.

Rhona O’Connell: Sure. Yeah. So one of our senior economists was asked that question a couple of years ago, and he said it's probably the largest company you've never heard of, which is quite a nice way of putting it. Essentially, we have just celebrated our centenary. We started off in 1923, so actually it's more than our centenary now. And there was a gentleman by the name of Stone, Mr. F.C. Stone, and he was a door-to-door egg salesman in Chicago.

Mike Maharrey: Oh, wow.

Rhona O’Connell: Yeah. So, through over a hundred years of organic growth and acquisitions, we are now, I think we're about 5,000 strong now. The head office is New York. The largest office is London. We are number 31 in the NASDAQ 50 and 64 in the NASDAQ 500. I think that's right. I think that's right. Certain 31 in the NASDAQ 50s is correct. Our turnover revenues are in the billions, but return on investment on the fiscal year this year was, it was something like 26%. It's the best company I've ever worked for. Probably not necessarily the most important one because I think that was the first one way back in the early 1980s when I was very much a baby analyst working at Consolidated Gold Fields, which at that point was the world's second largest gold producer behind Anglo. And I was in the corporate development team in London, basically looking at the gold market the whole time.

But also my boss and I spent a year putting together a 10-year outlook for the evolution of the, or likely evolution of the silver market. And then three of us did the same thing the following year for the evolution of the Platinum Group Metals. And they were both parts of feasibility studies for advanced exploration deposits. The silver deposit, which was payable at $20 cash, and we're talking about 1982, that did not come on stream, whereas the PGM was Northern Platinum, which is still up and strong running. So my personal background comes from within the mining sector to kick off with, but I was so very, very lucky to have been at Goldfields with one of the world's greatest gold analysts ever by the name of Tim Green. And so it went on. So I've moved through the financial sector and I came to StoneX, which at that point was still called INTL FC Stone.

In 2019, the head of precious metals at that point, well the head of metals to be fair, wanted to put together a team of analysts to be based in London. I'd just been made redundant from running the GFMS team at Thomson Reuters, so the timing was perfect. So I came on board to build a team that's just the two of us. And I actually stole an analyst that I had previously hired into GFMS and trained her and she's very, very, very good. So I brought her with me six months later. Metals is one of the liquid areas of the company. There's base metals, there's precious metals. We cover practically everything in the natural resources. There's ags, there's softs, then there's energy of the exchange traded commodities, if you like. We have a global payments system, which is essentially central bank to central bank. We've got institutional prime and people who run funds or people whose clients run funds, I should say.

I've probably missed something there, but we pretty much cover everything in, and Forex of course, we pretty much cover everything in the financial sphere.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. And you guys put out fantastic analysis. And before the election, you guys put out a report looking at various scenarios depending on the outcome of the elections. And I don't know that we know completely, but we have a pretty good idea and I think that it would qualify as a wave based on the scenarios that you put out. Yes, absolutely. It looks like the Democrats will have at least a four seat advantage in the Senate, probably a couple more than that, and then very close to 100 in the House. So, not veto-proof, but a very significant majority to say the least. So, from your perspective, looking at it big picture, what do you expect that this might do in terms of impacting the gold market as we move forward with this shift in power?

Rhona O’Connell: Right. Well, obviously it's very early days and it's going to be a movable feast. And I take your point entirely about it's not veto proof, although there'll be more checks and balances that the Democrats can employ. Provided, this is something I picked up from an observation in the Financial Times this morning, it's not an original though of my own, that they actually do take the cat by the scruff of the neck and get stuck in and have good, solid, viable policies which they implement as opposed to, as the generalist referred to it as enjoying an empty victory.

So bottom line, with the big change in the balance of power, we've already seen an immediate short-term reaction with the dollar coming off, yields coming down a little bit because fiscal stimulus is likely to be constrained and brinkmanship may start because we're already in the presidential race, aren't we basically? So we would look for rates and the dollar to come off in the medium term. We've had the knee-jerk reaction. We're probably going to get some stabilization now and then maybe some further erosion. But then what happens in, let's say the first quarter of next year to rates and the dollar and so forth will be a function of what we've just been talking about in terms of how authoritative will the Democrats be in Congress? Put vetoes to one side for a moment because they will be able to constrain a certain amount of White House policy.

So, if they don't hit the ground running, then you'll probably find that uncertainty will come back into the markets and the dollar would weaken even further. Whereas if they get the job done properly and efficiently and from the get-go, then that weakening of the dollar is very unlikely to be catastrophic or even dramatic. It's probably going to be a force of interest rate differentials and so on and so forth.

A second order effect of this, I think is probably a fair way to describe it, would be the impact on the Fed because we've got a hawkish Fed, which is currently comfortable with the labor market and they're happy with unemployment sitting about 4.2, which seems to be more or less like full employment anyway. So, they're training all their gunfire on fighting inflation. So, with the Democrats in power in both chambers of Congress, that takes some of the political heat off the Fed in the first place when we're thinking about the makeup of the FOMC. But it also means that we're likely to have Elizabeth Warren as the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and she is a Fed protector in my view. So if they need to raise to... Where are we now? We're three and three quarters at four, aren't we? I think our strategy team in StoneX is looking for one hike in December.

Well, isn't everybody? And then probably another one in Q1, something like that. It may be that they need to go a little bit further or they will feel the need to go a little bit further. So at that point, I know all the arguments about forward guidance and not forward guidance, not I know, I'm aware of. I actually had the impression at the October presser, sorry, the November... Where are we? October.

Mike Maharrey: October meeting.

Rhona O’Connell: Yeah, thank you. Although Kevin Warsh did swerve forward guidance per se, there was a slightly more hawkish tone in what he said I thought than in the previous two. He was also quite forthcoming at the IMF World Bank meetings in September. So, I think we can expect at least two more rate hikes regardless. The mitigating, not the mitigating factor, the rate determining step, shall we say, is going to be what happens in the Gulf because we've got a Democrat party that will hopefully be able to, if indeed things aren't sorted out by January, the impression that I have is that they will want to get it sorted out. They're not necessarily going to give away a lot of ground, but it could be a more amicable set of meetings. So at some point, let's hope for everybody's sake that the Gulf problems get sorted out.

That does not mean if we had a ceasefire or what I'm looking for, settlement on day one, that does not mean that on day two we're going to start seeing oil prices come down and inflation weakening and so on and so forth because we've got supply chain disruption which will take time to unravel. So obviously we've got the Gulf, we've got supply chain, we've got problems not necessarily just with crudes, but with the distillates and jet fuel is a very good case in point, all of which are feeding through to the bottom line in the PPI. The question that I've been mulling over for quite some time now is that when you compare the CPI and the core CPI and the PPI, there is something like a two and a half percentage point difference between CPI and PPI. So at some stage, either the people in the middle of supply chain or the manufacturers and the semi-manufacturers are going to have to endure even more compressed margins, which some of them may not be able to do, and if they can't or won't, then that's going to come to the consumer.

So, that means that the lead time for inflation to be brought under control in the states is probably a good six months longer than some people think it is, which means that, and I'm getting there as far as gold is concerned, which means that we're probably going to have a combative Fed and we could easily see two or three hikes on that basis. But then of course the fiscal headroom problem is such that they don't want to be too restrictive. So, I wouldn't be in Kim and Walter's shoes for all the tea in China, frankly. Horrible job. But all of those uncertainties could well mean that while a weakening dollar is giving gold a bit of a boost up towards 4.2, if we end up having a semi-restrictive, let's say, Fed policy and real yields, and of course it's the bond market which counts if the Fed can call the shots, but the bond market actually fires them.

If we're looking at persistently high real bond yields, quite apart from what that's going to do to mortgages and so on and so forth and consumer spending, that works against gold.

I'm sort of neutral about gold at this level. At the start of this year, she says, showing off, when we were above 5,000, and I wasn't alone by any stretch of the imagination with saying, "This market is too crowded, it's too busy. We've had algos and CTAs and this, that, and the other. There is trouble ahead. This will end in tears." And I called 3,800 for year end and quite a few people told me I was an idiot. And I have to say for that of January, I felt like one. We might not see 3.8, but at the moment, and I know this is going to sound like a wide range and as if I'm ducking my responsibilities, but I'm sort of neutral between 3.8 and 4.5, something like that, because I can see that it's got tailwinds and it's got headwinds and it's not all going to be done to Congress, of course it isn't, but Congress is going to be a key driver as to how things develop over the next five, six months or so.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I think that's a really good range, and that kind of dovetails with a lot of folks that I've talked to. I've heard folks say even 3.5 is kind of a possible bottom and then that 4.5, that kind of range over the next months. And as you say, there's so much uncertainty, right? We don't know. And I guess the wild card is we still have a few months before the new Congress is seated, what happens in the interim? Does Trump do something extremely aggressive in Iran? We just don't know the answers to those questions.

Rhona O’Connell: I saw another the other day, I can't remember who... I really can't remember who it was. I think again, it might've been the Financial Times, but it did make me giggle because she said, "Will the president now be a lame duck or an angry duck?" It was just such a lovely little image because he could throw his toys out of his prime. He's done it before. But then by the same token, I thought the speed with which J.D. Vance said what he said yesterday was quite telling.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Oh yeah. Vice President Vance is definitely positioning himself and trying to position himself not quite so close to the president. And I guess the other thing that we could see just from a political standpoint, I don't want to get too deep into politics, but I would not be at all surprised if we didn't see some pretty aggressive efforts to investigate the president and even possible impeachment proceedings before the next couple of years is up. So there's going to be a lot of political turmoil. I'm curious, you mentioned the Fed and that you wouldn't want that job, and I completely agree. I wonder how much you feel like the Fed is constrained by the massive levels of debt, not only talking about the government debt that we have all across the globe, and of course 40 trillion here in the United States, but then also we have a lot of corporate debt.

Mike Maharrey: We have a lot of consumer debt, you mentioned mortgages, and it's easy to say we're going to fight inflation, but on the other hand, sometimes it can get dicey when you have an economy that is so dependent on easy money. So, how constrained do you think the Fed is?

Rhona O’Connell: I think that they're going to have problems, to be quite honest. It's 123% of GDP at the moment, I think, isn't it? And that's not a lot of headroom. We've got a similar problem in the UK, so I can empathize with this, and some of the European economies as well. The OECD submitted a written statement to the IMF World Bank meetings in September, and one of the points that they made really quite forcefully was that because of the restrictive wriggle room with respect to fiscal deficits, the potential resilience against any further exogenous shock is being and has been eroded. That would be good for gold, frankly. You'd get distressed selling first and then it would pick up again. But yeah, I think you're right. I think they do have constraints upon them because there's not a huge amount that they can do if they're going to stay within their fiscal rules.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. You look at the amount of time that the CPI here in the US has been above that mythical 2% target. It's 67 straight months, I think.

Rhona O’Connell: Yes, and he's counting.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So, that's definitely a lot of pressure. But then on the other hand, you kind of have to think, why didn't you just hike in October? It's interesting because you can tell that they're kind of trying to walk this tight rope, aren't they?

Rhona O’Connell: He was asked that question in the press conference, and I'm plagiarizing what he said, but effectively he said something similar to what Jay Powell would say about data dependence and one swallow doesn't make a summer. And of course, September to October is one month, October to December is two, so they'll have a lot more material to work with in December, and he wants to be cautious. He doesn't want to throw things off balance, but you're talking about debt. Something which has been nagging at me for a couple of years now, and it's getting worse, is the proliferation of private credit because there is a mismatch in terms of maturity with respect to what the investors into private credit want. They might work on a three, six month time horizon, whereas the people who are actually running the private credit funds are invested for the long term.

So we're already starting to see stresses whereby, generally speaking, when people come up to their three-month limit and they want to take monies out, they're being restricted to 5%, generally speaking, of what they've got, not necessarily what they want, but what they've got. And this puts me in mind of subprime in 2007. One of the reasons why it stays with me is because I, and again, I wasn't alone, I did not see the significance of the subprime problems in 2007, and it still hurts.

But with the banks rolling out, it's like a quasi-securitization in some sorts of ways, banks taking that credit off their own balance sheets and parking it with somebody else so that they can then recapitalize and go out and make hay second time around into a non-regulated system where you've got these maturity mismatches. I'm not comfortable with that at all. I'm not, by any shift of the imagination, saying that we're going to see GFC 2.0 because the authorities are with it and we've had Dodd-Frank and all the other odds and ends. But the fact that it's not regulated, I know it's in the feds cross hairs and the European central bank's got their eyes on it too. So hopefully, all will be well, but it's just rumbling underneath the surface and I don't like it very much. And again, that's the tailwind to gold.

Mike Maharrey: There's a lot of things that are kind of rumbling like that. I did an article last week or the week before about the subprime automobile market. They've done the same thing with auto loans that they've done with or that they did with housing back in the early 2000s. Obviously, the auto market's not nearly as big and doesn't have the same potential to pull down the entire financial system, but it's just kind of those things that are percolating under the surface that you have to keep your eyes on. I'm curious as somebody who lives overseas, you're in England, and I'm curious your perception as not an American, how badly has America's reputation and trust factor been damaged over the last couple of years in your view? And do you think that Congress could maybe restore some of that trust and maybe roll back the debasement trade a bit?

Or has America kind of, I don't know, put itself in a position where maybe it's going to be hard to get that trust back?

Rhona O’Connell: Right. Great question. Glad you asked it. Over the past couple of years, quite a few of us, certainly in the financial sector, because we're exposed to it, not financially, I don't mean necessarily, but just in terms of what we watch and what we have to analyze and what we need to respond to. A lot of us have had our heads in our hands thinking this is sleepwalking, taking a long walk off a short plank. But it's not the American people here, it's just a few bad actors. And the reaction in the British press, when I turned on my radio at six o'clock yesterday morning, I though the BBC man was going to explode. He just said, "We've had a blowout in the States." And I thought, "Oh, here we go." And I got into the office and it was big smiles all around. And I said to someone, and again, I wasn't the only one, the best thing that's come out of this is the reaction of the American people.

And they had spoken, and I know I was talking to a skeptic who actually lives in South Africa, so he is entitled to be skeptical, I suppose, but he was concerned last week about whether the American people would actually go for it the way they have. So the reputation for integrity of the man in the street in the States at the moment has taken a huge jump, huge.

Mike Maharrey: That's interesting. Yeah, I never really thought about it from that perspective, but I guess that is kind of heartening to see that kind of response. It's not surprising to me at all here in the United States knowing American politics. We're used to these big swings, and of course there's downsides for both parties in my opinion, but it is interesting. I feel like from my perspective, I'm a political conservative in the United States. I guess that's what I would be considered. I'm very much a constitutionalist. I'm very much believe in division of powers. I think the biggest problem that we've seen in the Trump era is the fact that we've had this executive overreach and executive -

Rhona O’Connell: Sorry, I can't tell you how many times I've written about Lisa Cook.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So this kind of overreach, it happens in every administration, but it's just been magnified over the last couple of years. And so my hope is that maybe Congress will reassert itself as that check and balance because we've had no checks and balance for a number of years.

Rhona O’Connell: Exactly. Which goes back to what the journalist that I referred to earlier about basically they've been handed the baton, now they've got to run with it.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, exactly. So before we go, is there anything that you're kind of watching and that has your attention that maybe is not related to the war and the Fed? What is something maybe that could impact the gold and silver market that is getting buried in the headline noise?

Rhona O’Connell: Well, there's lots of things going on in the background. One element which is intriguing me at the moment, I couldn't go to the London Bullion Market Association annual conference this year because I'd had an accident and couldn't get out of the house, let alone out the country, which is a shame. But the reason I mentioned that is that I was at the Asia Pacific Precious Metal Conference, which is Singapore in June. And at the moment we've got Singapore and Hong Kong both vying for poll position as the Asian hub for the precious metals markets. Now, the interesting thing about that and why I mentioned the APPMC conference is that one of the recurring themes at APPMC was a bemoaning of the fragmentation of the market. I was thinking to myself, "Well, hang on a minute, this isn't making any sense because you've got Hong Kong on one hand and Singapore on the other." I'm told that at the LBMA conference, they were all lovey-dovey in saying it can all work together, blah, blah, blah.

So, I'm not necessarily espousing this particular view, I'm quoting somebody else in Singapore who referred to the unseen hand behind Hong Kong. So there's obviously concerns about whether China is exerting too much influence. Singapore is obviously much more of a free trade position or free trade post and so on and so forth. If it's handled properly, they can probably bring complimentary expertise and resources to the table and work hand in hand. Whether that will actually happen, I'm a bit of a skeptic about human nature. One or other is going to want supremacy, I suspect. Asia obviously is very important for the physical gold market, has been for years. So it's a question of expediting flows and not going for supremacy, but trying to make it holistic. It's been on the horizon for quite some time, but it's now starting to make the specialist headlines at any rate.

So that, I think, is probably one of the most important things about how the markets evolve and maintain their fluidity.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it'll be very interesting. I've been writing quite a bit about just the nuts and bolts of what's going on, a lot of additional vaulting space, new products. So it is interesting and it'll be interesting to see how it plays out and integrates. So let folks know where they can find StoneX and what they might find over there.

Rhona O’Connell: Well, the website is easy enough. It's stonex.com, S-T-O-N-E-X. There's masses of stuff inside the website. You can be guided into any of the different sectors that we work in. There's the market intelligence, which is my forte. We've got loads of analysts, but we've got stacks of analysts on the ground for eggs and softs, particularly in Latin America and in North America. Over dairy, I forgot to mention that one. Yeah, there's just masses to see. We've got something like 50,000 corporate clients and over a quarter of a million retail, so we've got quite a reach.

Mike Maharrey: Yep. I see your guys' stuff pop up all the time out there in the mainstream. You do fantastic work. Helps me do my job, and I very much appreciate all of the great analysis, and I appreciate you taking time out of your day. You're already getting ready to wrap up your workday, and I'm just getting started. That's the -

Rhona O’Connell: I've got another three hours to go yet, but I'm closer to a cocktail than you are.

Mike Maharrey: I feel like I just woke up, but it's been enjoyable. It's worth getting up to talk to you, so I really appreciate your insights.

Rhona O’Connell: Very gracious of you. Thank you. It's a great pleasure. I always enjoy it.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. Well, we'll have you back again as we move forward. It'll be interesting to talk again in a few months and see how things are unfolding, because right now it's a lot of uncertainty, so we'll just roll with it, right?

Rhona O’Connell: Okay. Well, thanks very much, Michael. Lovely to talk to you.

Mike Maharrey: Thank you. Bye-bye.

Rhona O’Connell: Bye-bye.

Wonderful to have Rhona back on the podcast and to get her thoughts. Having met her personally at several conferences and rubbing shoulders with people she’s known in the metals industry, some of them for decades now, I can tell you she is incredibly well-respected amongst her peers and in this space. So again, it was great to have her join us for a second time now during this highly tumultuous year in the metals markets.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And to check out any of our audio programs, including our second podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo, just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/";>Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

Why Is Gold Valuable - Scarcity, Durability, No Counterparty, and Central Bank Demand - Why Gold Held Its Worth After 1971 and What It Means for Your Savings - Money Metals

Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

Picture a grandfather who keeps a single gold coin in a small envelope in his desk drawer. He never spends it, never sells it, and rarely talks about it. Ask him why he holds on to it and the answer is short: “Because paper changes and this doesn’t.”

He is not an economist. He has simply watched the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold price and the dollar move through enough cycles to notice which kind of money holds up. Plenty of American families have a story like that one.

So why is gold valuable? Gold is valuable because it combines a rare set of physical traits (scarcity, durability, divisibility, and difficulty to counterfeit) with something no government can print: a track record of holding purchasing power across centuries.

It does not need a central bank, a balance sheet or a promise to be worth something. Even after the gold standard ended and gold stopped backing the dollar, it kept its role as the asset people turn to when confidence in paper money fades.

Scarcity, Durability and the Monetary History Behind Gold’s Value

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The first thing influencing gold’s value is its scarcity. All the gold ever mined would fit into a cube roughly 22 meters on a side. Annual mine production adds only about 1.5 to 2 percent to the above-ground stock each year, which means no discovery or policy decision can suddenly flood the market.

Gold does not rust, tarnish or decay. A coin struck two thousand years ago is still recognizable gold today. It can be divided into small units without losing value and it can be tested for purity.

Those traits are why gold served as money in nearly every major civilization. For much of American history, the dollar itself was defined as a fixed weight of gold.

That changed in two steps. The first in 1933 under President Roosevelt. The second came in 1971 under President Nixon. https://www.moneymetals.com/history/when-did-the-gold-standard-end";>Money Metals' history of how the gold standard ended lays out those events in more detail. However, the really striking part came after these events.

If gold’s value came only from government backing, it should have collapsed once the backing was removed. Instead, the opposite happened. At the time Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, the official price was $35 an ounce.

Today gold trades at more than a hundred times that level. The dollar, meanwhile, has lost more than 85 percent of its purchasing power over the same stretch. Gold did not need the government. The government’s money, it turns out, needed gold.

Key Factors That Give Gold Its Value

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When a careful saver asks why gold is valuable, these are the factors that matter most.

It cannot be printed. Federal Reserve notes can be created with a keystroke. Gold has to be found, mined, refined and minted, at great cost. That cost of production puts a natural brake on supply that no central bank faces.
It has no counterparty. A bond depends on the borrower paying. A stock depends on a company surviving. A bank deposit depends on the bank. A gold coin in your hand depends on nothing but itself. That is a major part of the case for owning physical gold rather than gold stocks, where your outcome is tied to management decisions and market sentiment rather than to the metal.
Central banks still want it. Here is the irony “modern” monetary thinkers would rather skip: the same central banks that issue fiat currency keep gold in their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/central-banks-buying-gold";>central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024. If gold were just a “barbarous relic,” why would the institutions running the paper system keep buying it?
It has real-world uses. Jewelry demand is enormous, and gold’s conductivity and resistance to corrosion make it valuable in electronics, dentistry and aerospace. These uses add demand but are not the main reason gold holds value. The main reason is monetary.
It has a long memory. Gold has outlasted every paper currency that tried to replace it. That history is why people reach for it in moments of stress.

A Simple Framework for Deciding What Gold’s Value Means for You

Understanding why gold is valuable is useful only if it helps you decide what to do. Consider this checklist.

If your main goal is preserving purchasing power over ten or twenty years, gold’s long record matters more than its month-to-month swings.
If you are worried about inflation, gold has historically been one of the assets people move toward when the dollar weakens. That pattern explains why investors turn to gold when inflation starts rising, and it is a reason to own some before inflation is in the headlines.
If you want liquidity, stick to widely recognized products: https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-american-gold-eagle-coin/7";>American Gold Eagles, Canadian Gold Maple Leafs, South African Krugerrands and https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/what-is-bullion-gold-silver";>one-ounce bars from known refiners.
If premiums worry you, https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-premium";>compare the cost over spot price across products. Bars usually carry lower premiums than coins; coins are easier to sell in small amounts.
If you want https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>gold as insurance, size the position so a price drop would not keep you up at night. Many careful savers hold somewhere between 5 and 20 percent of their savings in precious metals.

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Common Concerns and Misconceptions About Gold’s Value

“Gold doesn’t pay interest, so how can it be valuable?”

True, gold produces no yield. But that is the point. A yield is payment for taking someone else’s risk. Gold’s job is to hold value without that risk. You do not expect your homeowner’s insurance to pay you dividends, either.

“Isn’t gold’s value just a shared belief?”

Every form of money rests on trust. The difference is what that trust is placed in. Fiat money asks you to trust politicians and central bankers. Gold asks you to trust physics, chemistry and five thousand years of human experience. Which seems sturdier?

“What if the price drops right after I buy?”

It might. Gold can fall sharply in the short run, and it has gone through long flat stretches. Long-term holders treat those periods as part of owning insurance rather than as a sign the insurance failed.

Scarcity and Independence Keep Gold Valuable Without a Gold Standard

Gold is valuable because it is scarce, durable and independent of any institution’s promise, and because centuries of experience have taught people to trust it when paper money falters. Removing gold from the dollar in 1933 and 1971 did not drain gold of its worth.

It simply revealed which of the two had been carrying the other all along, which is exactly what that grandfather understood about the coin in his desk.

Australian Man Digs Up 2.5-Pound Potato-Shaped Gold Nugget

Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

On my desk sits a very small jar containing gold flakes. My grandparents panned the gold from an Alaskan river back in the 1950s.

There’s not much gold in the jar – far less than a gram. And to hear my grandmother tell it, they paid for that gold in blood.

Literally.

Apparently, mosquitoes in Alaska exact quite the fee for the privilege of panning for gold in the summertime.

My grandmother told that story over and over when I was a kid, and it made quite an impression on young me. I always thought hunting for gold sounded cold and miserable, and not very lucrative.

However, sometimes the blood, sweat, and tears pay off.

And sometimes it pays off big-time.

It certainly did for an Australian prospector with a metal detector.

He didn’t want to be named, so I’ll just call him "Dude."

Dude said he’d been searching for several days on Mount Stuart station near Tibooburra, in the north-western corner of New South Wales, when his metal detector pinged.

He said the ping wasn’t very loud at first, but he realized he was onto something big as he started brushing away the dirt.

"It wasn't a loud signal for the size of the piece that it is [but] once I got down to 100 [millimeters] or something like that, the machine was squealing. It might have been on the first or second scrape; I just seen this bright yellow dot in the center of the hole."

And then he pulled out a potato.

Except it wasn’t really a potato. It was a gold nugget.

The golden spud weighed in at 1,218 grams (about 38.6 troy ounces or 2.6 pounds). However, it was specked with quartz. Preliminary testing determined the nugget contained about 940 grams of pure gold. That’s worth about $121,000 at the current spot price.

Dude nicknamed the nugget the "Tibooburra Spud.” He hopes to sell it to a collector for as much as $200,000.

Dude told ABC Australia he’s been prospecting “for years” and that he’s used to “coming up empty.”

“You dig lots of rubbish … lots of lead bullets, old timer's nails, horseshoes, everything."

Now, that sounds like my grandmother’s version of prospecting!

And it makes sense, right?

Gold is rare. That’s one of the characteristics that makes it so valuable.

Mining experts say a 1-ounce nugget is harder to locate than a 5-carat diamond. As Earth.com explains it, “One reason for this scarcity is that gold deposits are scattered and often require extensive mining operations before any visible pieces are brought to the surface.”

So, it’s not like you can just walk along the side of the road and pick up gold nuggets – not even in Australia.

Although, on occasion…

In 1979, a couple using a metal detector located a massive gold nugget in western Australia's Kalgoorlie Goldfields. Known today as the "Golden Beauty," the nugget weighs in at nearly 10 pounds.

Can you imagine stumbling on such a find?

I can’t either. My imagination can’t get past my grandmother and grandfather swatting mosquitoes in the middle of a cold Alaskan river.

In 1869, two miners dug up the largest alluvial gold nugget ever found. The Welcome Stranger weighed in at 3,523.5 troy ounces (about 241 pounds). At today’s gold price, the nugget would be worth $14.4 million.

Unfortunately, the Welcome Stranger is no more.

The nugget was so big that a local blacksmith had to break it into three pieces on an anvil before they could weigh it. The pieces were later melted down and shipped to the Bank of England.

The duo received an estimated £9,381 for their find. That equals $12,614.91. That’s about $297,400.95 in today's purchasing power.

No wonder people are willing to spend significant amounts of time and money (and sometimes blood) hunting for gold.

Dude had some advice for would-be gold hunters.

"Just keep walking, keep swinging, keep digging every target."

You might just get rich.

But if that doesn’t work out for you, you can always get beautiful gold at MoneyMetals.com. You’ll do much less work. You can remain in the comfort of your home. And you’ll probably spend less money when it’s all said and done.

ETF Gold Flows Slow in October But Remain Positive

Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

ETFs around the world continued adding gold to their holdings in October. However, the pace of gold accumulation slowed, with metal flowing out of North American funds.

ETFs globally added a net 19 tonnes of gold valued at $2.7 billion to their holdings in October. That drove cumulative ETF gold stocks to a record 4,275 tonnes. However, assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds dipped 6 percent to $542 billion, driven lower by last month's big drop in the gold price.

Through the first 10 months of 2026, gold ETFs added $41 billion, and their metal holdings rose by 246 tonnes. In value terms, it was the third-strongest start to a year on record.

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European and Asian funds led global flows, accounting for 44 and 45 percent of total net inflows, respectively.

European funds powered global gold ETF inflows higher last month, adding 13.1 tonnes of metal, valued at $1.8 billion.

Gold has flowed into European funds for 18 straight weeks. As the World Gold Council noted, the European gold rush has persisted despite weak price performance, surging yields across the region, and shifting expectations for local central bank policy.

“This suggests that demand for gold ETFs may be increasingly strategic, reflecting persistent political and fiscal uncertainty across the region.”

United Kingdom-based funds led the way in October. In fact, the UK led all countries in ETF gold flows through the first 10 months of 2026.

Germany, France, and Switzerland also reported strong demand for gold ETFs.

World Gold Council analysts say energy shocks, political unrest in France, and a weakening German economy boosted gold last month.

“Against this backdrop, investors have increasingly turned to gold ETFs for diversification, particularly as traditional safe-haven bond markets face their own challenges.”

Meanwhile, North American funds reported gold outflows totaling -4.5 tonnes valued at $512 million.

Selling was concentrated in the U.S., as gold continued to flow into Canada-based funds.

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/02/what-sparked-golds-off-selloff-005336";>Gold came under significant selling pressure at the end of the month. World Gold Council analysts said some North American investors may have tapped into the strong gold positions as the stock market tanked.

“U.S. technology equities came under selling pressure during October amid growing concerns around AI-related capital spend. The resulting market stress may have contributed to the region’s gold ETF outflows as some investors turned to their gold holdings as a ready source of liquidity. This illustrates one of gold’s key attributes: deep liquidity can help investors meet cash needs during market turbulence.”

Gold flowed into Asian gold ETFs for the fourth straight month in October. Asian funds added 9.8 tonnes of gold valued at $1.3 billion.

China drove the region’s ETF inflows as the country’s stock markets struggled. WGC analysts say Chinese investors’ allocation to gold ETFs “remains strategically linked to the equity market rout and falling government bond yields, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold despite the gold price weakness.”

Japanese funds also attracted inflows last month for similar reasons.

Indian ETFs continued to experience growth despite the government’s temporary suspension of fresh subscriptions to gold funds in mid-October. The government is trying to limit gold imports to lower the trade deficit and support the rupee.

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Funds listed in other regions, including Australia and Africa, reported modest gold inflows of 0.6 tonnes valued at $62 million.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, they let investors play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you're just buying a number on a screen, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

Gold market activity slowed down in October, with average daily trading volumes dipping 13 percent to $365 billion per day across all major market segments.

Over-the-counter (OTC) trading fell modestly by 2 percent in October to $219 billion per day. LBMA activity also charted a 2 percent month-on-month decline to $196 billion per day.

COMEX trading fell sharply by 22 percent last month, while net open interest in COMEX gold options rose by 6 percent.

Total COMEX net longs fell by 94 tonnes to 560 tonnes. It was the lowest level since the end of July.

Managed money net longs fell by 53 tonnes.

What Does the "Blue Wave" Mean for Gold and Silver?

Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

How do you like gridlock?

There will likely be plenty of it in Washington, D.C.

The Blue Wave swept across the political landscape, leaving Democrats in firm control of both congressional chambers.

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With a few elections “too close to call, the Democrats enjoy a 54-44 majority in the Senate and a 240-147 advantage in the House.

How might this new balance of power impact the precious metals markets?

Gold and silver both got a boost with the election results. Gold surged, recovering the $4,000 level, and silver rose to over $53.

However, post-election bounces (and selloffs) tend to be short-lived. How will things shake out in the months ahead?

Domestic demand for gold bars and coins tends to rise modestly under Democratic administrations. However, elections have not historically had a significant impact on gold’s global performance over the long haul.

According to the World Gold Council, “Given the geographic diversity of demand, what matters is whether the resulting policy changes are sufficiently consequential for the global gold market, and whether they can offset other global forces that drive the price.”

So, how might policy shift with the Democrats holding the levers of power in Congress?

Congress will remain constrained by President Trump’s veto pen. It won’t be able to impose the worst of the Democrats’ leftist economic and social schemes. However, an active Congress could significantly restrain Trump.

StoneX provided a nice list of things the Democrat-controlled Congress will be able to do:

Block further reconciliation, including $350bn “mandatory” defense funding and new tax cuts.
Attach conditions to must-pass appropriations and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
Run oversight: subpoenas, hearings, contempt citations (Trump family crypto, DoJ and Federal Trade Commission antitrust, Iran war, AI)
Control Senate confirmations: Cabinet, judges, Fed governors
Extract concessions on the debt limit
Pass “message” bills that set the 2028 platform

However, the president will have plenty of tools to fight back. Trump has shown no hesitation in using executive powers and pushing them to the limit.

How this tug-of-war for power will play out remains uncertain.

As Metals Focus framed the situation, “The U.S. mid-term election results introduce a new layer of unpredictability for the outlook for precious metals.”

Domestically, Trump will find it impossible to advance any additional tax cuts or finance his spending priorities. However, Democrats love to spend money. Additional spending could be coming down the pike. How much spending rises will depend on the aggressiveness of Trump's veto pen.

Metals Focus analysts think gridlock in Congress minimizes the likelihood of additional fiscal stimulus. However, they do not think it will lead to meaningful deficit reduction.

“Meaningful deficit reduction remains unlikely, given existing spending commitments, rising interest costs and the difficulty of agreeing on tax increases or expenditure cuts. Budget and debt-ceiling negotiations could also become more contentious, increasing uncertainty over U.S. fiscal management.”

Metals Focus thinks this political landscape is modestly bullish for gold and silver.

“For precious metals, these developments offer some relief from the recent macroeconomic headwinds. Constraints on additional stimulus could moderate U.S. growth and expectations for further rate hikes, easing pressure on real yields and the dollar. Their initial decline following the election has already supported gold, although continued heavy government borrowing could limit how far longer-term yields fall. For silver and the PGMs, the benefit of easier financial conditions would need to be weighed against the risk of weaker industrial demand.”

StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell expressed a similar view:

“Less fiscal stimulus argues for lower long yields and a softer dollar, offset by debt-limit premia in bills and a Fed leaning towards another hike.”

The ongoing war with Iran has had an outsized impact on the gold and silver markets since the U.S. attacked in February. The ensuing oil shock has reignited inflation concerns and raised expectations of a “higher for longer” interest rate environment. This has created significant headwinds https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/18/higher-rates-are-bad-for-gold-and-silver-or-are-they-005215";>for non-yielding gold and silver.

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Congress could theoretically defund the war. It could also try to use the War Powers Act to rein in the president. However, neither strategy would likely get around Trump's veto pen.

Democrats will also navigate significant political constraints when addressing the war. Trying to cut funding for “the troops” in the middle of a shooting war isn’t politically viable.

At best, Congress may be able to pressure Trump into negotiations. However, it could also incentivize the president to escalate the war before the new Congress can interfere. Once a war has momentum, it’s hard to slow down, much less stop.

Ultimately, the war will create headwinds for gold and silver until the U.S. and Iran reach a permanent settlement. And that doesn’t seem likely. However, things can change quickly in the world of foreign policy.

Metals Focus noted that a durable settlement with Iran would “materially ease” energy price-driven inflation pressures weighing on precious metals and create greater scope for monetary easing.

“This would lower real yields, and a weaker dollar would improve the investment backdrop. Silver and the PGMs could also benefit from lower energy costs and stronger global industrial activity.”

However, the impact wouldn’t be immediate. It will take months to reestablish broken supply chains and restore wrecked refining capacity.

On the flip side, an escalation of the war would likely intensify inflation worries and ratchet up interest rate pressure.

The president will also retain significant power over trade and tariffs. Congress delegated significant decision-making power to the executive branch when it crafted trade policy. As with the war, Congress will have some power to check Trump’s authority; however, he will almost certainly make good use of executive authority, and he will be able to veto any attempts to rein him in.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will continue to play an outsized role in the trajectory of the precious metals markets. Neither Congress nor the president has much power over the Fed’s rate-setting policy.

The Fed outlook is mildly hawkish, with virtually everybody penciling in a rate hike in December and another in early 2027. However, that path isn’t as certain as many would have you believe.

The central bank must navigate the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>Debt Black Hole. While one can argue rate hikes are necessary to rein in inflation, you can also make a good case for rate cuts to support the debt-riddled, bubble economy. Massive debt levels and an economy addicted to easy money don’t play well in a higher-interest-rate environment.

The bottom line is that we can expect more policy uncertainty in the weeks and months ahead. There will be a lot of bickering and arguing, but how much actually gets done remains to be seen.

Probably not much.

September Central Bank Gold Buying Hit Highest Monthly Total of the Year

Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

Central bank gold buying reached its highest level of the year in September, pushing third-quarter purchases well above the five-year quarterly average.

Central banks globally increased their gold reserves by 321.2 tonnes in the third quarter. That was a 42 percent year-on-year increase.

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Reported central bank gold buying totaled 120 tonnes in Q3. The World Gold Council estimated additional unreported central bank purchases totaled 201 tonnes.

“Unreported activity accounted for around 63 percent of the quarter’s demand, continuing the pattern evident since 2022. This means that disclosed country-level purchases provide only a partial picture of the underlying sources of demand.”

Reported increases to central bank gold reserves totaled 228 tonnes through the first three quarters of 2026. When factoring in unreported buying, the total rises to 675 tonnes, a 7 percent increase over the same period last year.

Central Bank Gold Accumulation Accelerated in September

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Central banks globally increased their gold reserves by a net 61 tonnes in September.

The Polish central bank ranks as the top gold buyer so far this year, and it expanded its reserves by another 25 tonnes in September. So far this year, the National Bank of Poland has increased its gold reserves by 123 tonnes. It now holds 673 tonnes of the yellow metal.

In a statement late last year, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/23/poland-announces-plans-for-another-expansion-in-gold-reserves-004631";>National Bank of Poland announced plans to buy up to 150 more tonnes of gold, raising its holdings to a maximum of 700 tonnes.

NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said the expanded gold reserves would elevate Poland to an “elite” status.

“This will place Poland among the elite 10 countries with the largest gold reserves in the world.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/05/19/poland-has-more-gold-than-the-european-central-bank-004053";>The Polish central bank already holds more gold than the European Central Bank. To put the country's gold reserves in context, the NBP only held 14 tonnes of gold in 1996.

The pace of Chinese central bank gold buying continued to accelerate in September. The People's Bank of China reported purchases totaling 23 tonnes.

It was the 23rd straight month of reported gold buying, raising official Chinese reserves to 2,410 tonnes. That makes up roughly 9 percent of the country’s official total reserves.

Year-to-date, the People’s Bank of China has reported 80 additional tonnes added to its gold holdings.

Notice the emphasis on “reported” and "official."

China is among the central banks likely holding significantly more gold than publicly disclosed and likely accounted for some of the unreported buying detected by the World Gold Council.

As Jan Nieuwenhuijs reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/02/chinas-gold-reserves-going-through-the-roof-003956";>data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank currently sits on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold in Beijing – more than TWICE what Chinese officials publicly admit.

The mainstream is finally taking notice. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/25/goldman-sachs-picks-up-on-chinas-secret-gold-reserve-expansion-005095";>Goldman Sachs picked up on China’s undisclosed purchases earlier this summer, and BMO Capital analysts estimated that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/30/could-chinas-gold-reserves-surpass-the-us-within-five-years-005101";>Chinese gold reserves could surpass the U.S.’s within five years.

After selling one tonne of gold in July, Uzbekistan pivoted back to buying in August, adding 8 tonnes to its reserves. It followed up in September with an additional 7-tonne purchase. So far this year, the Uzbek central bank has increased its gold holdings by a net 57 tonnes.

The Uzbek central bank holds about 90 percent of its reserves in gold.

It is not unusual for central banks that buy from domestic sources, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, to pivot back and forth between buying and selling.

Speaking of Kazakhstan, its central bank reported a 5-tonne increase in its gold reserves in September. It has expanded its gold holdings by just under 44 tonnes this year.

The Czech Republic has been one of the most consistent gold buyers over the last few years. The trend continued in September with yet another 2-tonne purchase.

The Czechs have adopted a slow, steady approach, buying gold for 43 straight months. The country added 20 tonnes to its reserves last year and now holds 88 tonnes of gold. Czech officials say they plan to increase gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2028.

Jordan (4 tonnes) and Bolivia (1 tonne) also reported gold purchases in September.

Russia was the only notable seller in August, shrinking its gold reserves by another 6 tonnes. Russia has sold 72 tonnes of gold year-to-date, leaving its official gold reserves at 2,265 tonnes.

Russia is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/23/russia-continues-to-sell-gold-to-support-its-economy-005087";>tapping its gold reserves to cope with economic sanctions and a wartime economy.

The Big Picture

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Looking at the trends, central bank gold buying moderated in 2025 but remained far above the recent historical average. Official net full-year buying came in at 863.3 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, charting the lowest level since 2021.

However, although central bank gold purchases declined last year, they remained well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record. The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

The surging gold price likely tempered central bank gold accumulation earlier this year. As the World Gold Council put it, the higher price prompted “a more cautious approach.”

The WGC noted that buying picked up as the price dipped in the second and third quarters.

“Although this moderation may have supported purchases at the margin, prices remained historically elevated, suggesting that longer-term strategic considerations, such as diversification and risk management, have remained the primary driver of demand.”

In the latest https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/25/survey-central-bankers-plan-to-keep-stacking-gold-005007";>World Gold Council survey, central bankers overwhelmingly said they expect global gold reserves will continue growing over the next 12 months. They seem to be putting their money where their mouths are. With prices moderating, it appears that several central banks are taking advantage of the recent correction to accumulate gold more quickly.

The World Gold Council said central bank gold activity “suggests that central bank activity continues to reflect longer-term reserve objectives, while monthly fluctuations are more likely to capture differences in implementation, market conditions and country-specific liquidity requirements.”

Why Gold Crashed Below $4,000—and What the Fed’s Rate Pause Means for Gold and Silver

Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold’s sharp Friday sell-off caught investors’ attention. The metal fell below $4,000 an ounce even as bond yields declined and the U.S. dollar weakened modestly, conditions that would usually support gold.

On the latest Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey explains what may have driven the drop, what the Federal Reserve’s rate decision could mean for precious metals, and why he https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/31/steve-penny-on-silvers-next-bull-market-gold-forecasts-and-options-trading-005334";>remains bullish on gold and silver over the long term.

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Why Gold and Silver Sold Off

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Spot gold fell 3.5% on Friday, breaking through $4,000 support and reaching a low of $3,880, its lowest price in 12 months. Gold rebounded by more than $80 on Monday morning.

The Fed’s hawkish pause and growing expectations of a December rate hike had already weighed on gold and silver. Higher interest rates can pressure precious metals because they do not pay interest. A spike in oil prices linked to the Iran war also added to inflation concerns.

Maharrey points to a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/02/what-sparked-golds-off-selloff-005336";>sell-off in technology stocks as the likely immediate catalyst. The Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday amid weak earnings and concerns about AI spending and debt. The S&P 500 declined 1.8%.

When stocks drop sharply, investors may sell liquid assets such as gold to raise cash for margin calls. Analysts cited by Bloomberg and Reuters described forced selling of gold as investors sought liquidity. Similar patterns appeared during the early stages of the 2020 pandemic sell-off, when gold fell 3% multiple times, and in October 2008, when gold plunged more than 7%.

Selling may have accelerated after gold broke below $4,000. Stop-loss orders and computer-generated trades can compound one another, pushing prices lower as more sell orders are triggered. Maharrey says these liquidity-driven declines can be temporary. After the Friday drop, gold had https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/02/gold-and-silver-finally-stabilize-is-the-worst-over-005337";>already rebounded by Monday morning.

What the Fed’s Rate Pause Means

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The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10–2 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, favoring a quarter-point rate increase.

The Fed said inflation remained elevated and that officials needed more information before deciding on the appropriate policy stance. Chairman Kevin Warsh did not signal what the central bank might do in December. He said he does not favor forward guidance in ordinary times, though he considers it useful during a crisis.

Warsh also announced changes to the Fed’s meeting schedule. The FOMC will continue to meet eight times a year, but one meeting next year will focus on strategy rather than setting rates. In 2028, the committee plans to hold two strategy sessions and six rate-setting meetings.

The $40 Trillion Debt Challenge

Maharrey notes that inflation had remained above the Fed’s 2% target for 67 consecutive months, while core CPI rose 0.3% in the latest month discussed. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach argued that the Fed should be raising rates, pointing to a 2-year Treasury yield of 4.75% and the Fed’s assessment that the economy was strong.

But Maharrey argues that the roughly $40 trillion national debt limits the Fed’s ability to keep raising rates. Higher rates could help fight inflation, but they also raise borrowing costs across an economy heavily burdened by debt.

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In Maharrey’s view, the Fed faces a difficult choice. It can tighten policy to contain inflation or ease policy to support borrowers, markets, and the broader economy. He expects the central bank to favor easier money when economic or financial stress becomes severe, potentially leading to more money creation, persistent inflation, and further dollar depreciation.

China’s Gold Buying Contrasts With U.S. Demand

World Gold Council data showed https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/03/gold-demand-steady-in-q3-supported-by-etfs-and-central-banks-005341";>Q3 gold demand of 1,369 tonnes, down 1% from a year earlier. Demand for the first three quarters totaled 3,881 tonnes, nearly matching the 3,884 tonnes recorded over the same period last year.

In value terms, Q3 demand rose 22% year over year to $188 billion. Year-to-date demand reached a record $566 billion. Central bank buying remained robust, and gold ETFs reported inflows in every region.

Physical bar and coin demand differed sharply between China and the United States. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/29/somebody-is-buying-gold-right-now-who-005330";>Chinese bar and coin demand rose 7% year over year in Q3 to 79 tonnes. Year-to-date demand reached 393 tonnes, an 11% increase over the previous record, set in 2013.

Chinese spending on physical gold reached $59 billion year-to-date, exceeding every full-year total in the World Gold Council’s data series. Q3 demand value rose 32% to $11 billion. By comparison, U.S. bar and coin demand fell 40% year over year to 8 tonnes, its weakest quarter since Q4 2019.

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Maharrey’s Outlook for Gold and Silver

Maharrey is cautious about the near term and says he would not be surprised by more selling. He raised the possibility of gold testing $3,500 an ounce, while silver was near $50 support. He also cited silver analysts who would not be concerned by a decline below $45.

Despite that risk, Maharrey views the correction as a potential buying opportunity. He argues that the forces behind gold’s rise, including debt, bond-market strains, inflation, and currency debasement, remain in place.

He also referenced a https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/steve-penny-silvers-next-bull-market-gold-forecasts-options-6cpde/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent interview with SilverChartist.com founder Steve Penny, who said $15,000 gold would not surprise him over the longer term. Maharrey’s broader argument is that short-term price moves may reflect trading pressures, while debt and monetary policy shape the longer-term outlook.

The episode also discussed the Money Metals monthly installment program, which lets customers begin building gold and silver holdings with contributions starting at $100 a month. For more information about precious metals products and storage, contact Money Metals at 1-800-800-1865 or visit MoneyMetals.com.

Free Silver Movement - William Jennings Bryan, the Populists, and the Cross of Gold Speech - Why Farmers Backed It, the 1896 and 1900 Election Results, and Why It Failed - Money Metals

Wed, 04 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

The free silver movement was a push in the late nineteenth century to make the U.S. Mint coin all the silver people brought to it. This would give silver the same coining treatment as the Mint gave to gold.

Backers wanted more money in circulation so farm prices would rise and debts would be easier to pay. This guide will explore this political movement, not any modern silver giveaway.

This movement was not pushing for a new policy. Rather, it wanted a return to America’s former bimetallic coining system. That system practically came to an end when Congress https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>dropped the silver dollar in the Coinage Act of 1873.

The movement peaked when William Jennings Bryan gave his https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-cross-of-gold-speech/";>Cross of Gold speech in 1896. It faded after Bryan lost the 1896 and 1900 elections. Following those losses, Congress passed the https://www.moneymetals.com/history/what-is-the-gold-standard";>Gold Standard Act of 1900. That act put into law what had already been the practical monetary policy of the country.

What Was the Free Silver Movement?

Free silver was the biggest money fight of the Gilded Age. Farmers, silver miners, and the new Populist Party wanted the government to coin silver without limit. In contrast, bankers, most business owners, and most city voters wanted money tied to gold alone (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Free silver at a glance
Active	1873 to 1900
Goal	Free and unlimited coinage of silver
Main backers	Farmers in the South and West, silver miners, the Populists
Main opponents	Eastern bankers and business, most city voters
Leader	William Jennings Bryan
Famous line	“You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”
Outcome	Lost in 1896 and 1900; gold became the sole standard in 1900

What “Free” Meant: Free Coinage, Not Free Metal

Free silver did not mean free metal; instead, it meant free coinage. Under free coinage, any citizen could bring bullion to the Mint and have them mint coins from the metal for a small fee. There was no limit on how much the Mint would coin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Gold retained that right after the Coinage Act of 1873. Silver did not. The act left the silver dollar off the list of coins the Mint would create (https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica). Silver backers called the law the “Crime of ‘73.” Our guide to the Crime of 1873 explains what the law did.

Gold and silver coins were both “hard money,” also called https://www.moneymetals.com/history/what-is-specie";>specie. The real question was which metal would back the dollar.

Silverites and Gold Bugs

Free silver backers were called silverites. The silverite faction wanted a bimetallic system, which was the original monetary system implemented by Congress in 1792. Under that system, the Mint coined gold and silver freely.

The rivals to the silverites were called gold bugs. Outside the mining West, the Republican Party sided with the gold bugs. The party argued that only gold made “sound money” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Why Farmers and Miners Backed Free Silver

Farmers backed free silver because falling prices made their debts harder to pay. Silver miners backed it because the Mint would become an unlimited buyer of their metal. We’ll explore these reasons in a little more detail below.

Falling Crop Prices, Fixed Debts

Prices fell for years after the Civil War. Economists call this deflation. A https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/resources/lessons/lesson--free-silver-movement-and-inflation.pdf";>St. Louis Fed lesson explains the squeeze: farmers got less for their crops, “but their farm debts remained fixed.”

Here is how that worked. Say a farmer owed a loan worth 1,000 bushels of wheat. If wheat prices fell by a third, the same loan now took 1,500 bushels to repay. The debt stayed the same, but the work needed to pay it grew.

Silverites believed more coins would push prices back up. Britannica notes that farmers thought more money “would increase the price of their crops.” Debtors hoped it would help them “pay their debts more easily” (https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica).

Silver Country

Most U.S. silver came from mines in the West. Mine owners and miners were among the loudest voices for free silver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia). They wanted the Mint to take all the silver they could dig.

Some Western Republicans broke with their own party over it. In 1896, Senator Henry Teller of Colorado led a group out of the Republican Party. They formed the Silver Republican Party and backed Bryan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

The Populists’ 1892 Platform

Farm groups also built a new party, the People’s Party, known as the Populists. Its first national platform came out on July 4, 1892. It demanded “free and unlimited coinage of silver and gold” (https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/populist-party-platform-1892";>UCSB American Presidency Project). It also asked for more money in circulation and a graduated income tax.

Group	Stance	Why
Wheat farmers on the Plains and cotton farmers in the South	For	Wanted higher crop prices and lighter debts
Silver miners and mine owners in the West	For	Wanted the Mint to coin all their silver
Populists and Silver Republicans	For	Made free silver a core demand
Eastern bankers, railroads, and factory owners	Against	Wanted loans repaid in gold-backed dollars
City workers, including many German Americans	Against	Feared higher prices and lost jobs
Farmers in the Northeast	Against	Gave free silver little support

Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia, https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica.

From the Crime of 1873 to the Panic of 1893

Free silver grew out of 20 years of fights over coinage. Each law below has its own guide. This list keeps to one line each.

Year	What happened
1873	The https://www.moneymetals.com/history/crime-of-1873";>Coinage Act drops the silver dollar and ends free coinage of silver.
1878	The https://www.moneymetals.com/history/silver-purchase-acts";>Bland-Allison Act brings back the silver dollar, with limited silver buying.
1890	The https://www.moneymetals.com/history/silver-purchase-acts";>Sherman Silver Purchase Act raises the Treasury’s silver buying.
1892	The Populists adopt their first national platform and demand free silver.
1893	Falling Treasury gold sets off a panic, and Congress repeals the Sherman Act.
After 1893	Pamphlets and silver clubs spread the cause.

The 1893 repeal split the Democrats. President Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, stood with gold. Farmers in the South and West blamed “the greed of eastern bankers” for hard times. They renewed their call for free silver (https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica).

William Jennings Bryan and the Cross of Gold Speech

William Jennings Bryan became the face of the free silver movement when he gave his Cross of Gold speech. When he made that speech, he was a 36-year-old former congressman. The speech gave the movement its most famous line, and it propelled William Jennings Bryan to a viable presidential consideration.

Who Was William Jennings Bryan?

Bryan was a lawyer from Lincoln, Nebraska. Voters elected him to the House of Representatives in 1890. He served two terms as a congressman. Then, in 1894, he lost a Senate race. No longer a sitting congressman, Bryan took a position as editor of the Omaha World-Herald and worked as a popular public speaker (https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Jennings-Bryan";>Britannica).

Bryan did not hold any office in 1896, but his speeches and writings led many to consider him the national leader of the free silver movement.

The 1896 Democratic Platform

Democrats met at the Chicago Coliseum from July 7 to 11, 1896 to decide their election platform (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Democratic_National_Convention";>Wikipedia). At that convention, Silver Democrats took over the party. Despite heavy opposition from President Grover Cleveland, Silver Democrats managed to make free silver the main plank of the platform (https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica).

The plank read: “We demand the free and unlimited coinage of both silver and gold at the present legal ratio of 16 to 1, without waiting for the aid or consent of any other nation” (https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/1896-democratic-party-platform";>UCSB American Presidency Project). Our https://www.moneymetals.com/history/bimetallism";>bimetallism guide explains that ratio. The same platform called the gold standard “not only un-American but anti-American.”

Cross of Gold Speech Summary

Bryan spoke for free silver during the platform debate on July 9, 1896 (https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-cross-of-gold-speech/";>Teaching American History). Bryan had a simple set of arguments:

Free silver was a moral cause. He called it a cause “as holy as the cause of liberty.”
The country rested on its farms. “Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic.”
He spoke for working people. He claimed to have “the producing masses” behind him.
America should not wait for Europe. “If the gold standard is a bad thing why should we wait until some other nations are willing to help us to let it go?”

You can read the https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-cross-of-gold-speech/";>full text at Teaching American History or view the https://www.loc.gov/item/09032448/";>Library of Congress copy.

“You Shall Not Crucify Mankind Upon a Cross of Gold”

In the https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-cross-of-gold-speech/";>Teaching American History text, the speech ends with this line: “You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.” Bryan used the image of the crucifixion to depict the gold standard as a profound burden on working people.

After Bryan gave this speech, the Democratic Party nominated him for president as the party candidate. He was 36 years old at the time. The Populists and the National Silver Party nominated him too (https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Jennings-Bryan";>Britannica).

The Elections of 1896 and 1900

Free silver lost both times it went before voters. William McKinley, a Republican who backed gold, beat Bryan in both the 1896 and 1900 elections.

Two Very Different Campaigns

Bryan took his case on the road. He traveled more than 18,000 miles through 27 states (https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Jennings-Bryan";>Britannica). He gave about 600 speeches (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_McKinley_1896_presidential_campaign";>Wikipedia).

McKinley stayed home in Canton, Ohio. There, he spoke to crowds that gathered around from his own front porch. A great deal of support came from the efforts of the Republican industrialist Mark Hanna. https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1896";>According to Britannica, Hanna “tapped big businesses for enormous campaign contributions,” while other Republicans heralded McKinley as the “advance agent of prosperity.” In contrast, the Republicans painted Bryan as a dangerous radical.

	Bryan (Democrat)	McKinley (Republican)
Money stance	Free silver	Gold standard
Campaign style	Toured 27 states, over 18,000 miles	Spoke from his porch in Canton
Speeches	About 600	About 300, to some 750,000 visitors
Funding	Poorly funded	As much as 10 times Bryan’s

Sources: https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1896";>Britannica, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_McKinley_1896_presidential_campaign";>Wikipedia.

Results

Election	McKinley electoral votes	Bryan electoral votes
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/1896";>1896	271	176
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/1900";>1900	292	155

In 1896, McKinley also won a majority of the popular vote. He was the first president to do so since 1872. Bryan swept the South and most of the mountain West. McKinley carried the North and the Pacific West (https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1896";>Britannica).

In 1900, Bryan ran on silver again. He lost by a wider margin, and the issue faded after that (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Why Did the Free Silver Movement Fail?

Free silver failed because it never won over city voters or the industrial North. Then new gold supplies ended the falling prices behind the movement. The Gold Standard Act of 1900 settled the question in law.

Cities said no. City voters, especially German Americans, feared free silver would bring “economic disaster, unemployment, and higher prices” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).
Bryan was outspent. Hanna raised far more money and ran a large network of speakers (https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-1896";>Britannica). One estimate puts McKinley’s funds at up to 10 times Bryan’s (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_McKinley_1896_presidential_campaign";>Wikipedia).
Farm prices turned. Wheat prices rose in the last weeks of the 1896 race. That cooled some farm support for free silver (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_McKinley_1896_presidential_campaign";>Wikipedia).
New gold did what silver promised. Gold finds in the 1890s brought “a gradual inflation.” Rising gold output “reversed the deflationary trend.” That “ended the call for a bimetallic money standard” (https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/resources/lessons/lesson--free-silver-movement-and-inflation.pdf";>St. Louis Fed lesson).
The Populists lost their voice. Backing Bryan in 1896 marked the end of the Populists as an independent party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).
The law closed the door. The final nail in the coffin was the Gold Standard Act of 1900, which made the gold dollar “the standard unit of value” (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-31/pdf/STATUTE-31-Pg45.pdf";>govinfo). Our https://www.moneymetals.com/history/what-is-the-gold-standard";>gold standard guide covers what came next.

Was Free Silver a Good Idea?

Historians and economists still debate it. The answer depends on who you ask and which year you judge.

The Case For

Falling prices hurt people in debt, and many farmers carried debt. More money would have raised prices and made those loans easier to repay (https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/resources/lessons/lesson--free-silver-movement-and-inflation.pdf";>St. Louis Fed lesson). To its backers, silver was “the People’s Money” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

The Case Against

Gold backers said free silver would cheapen the dollar. Silver was worth less on the open market than the Mint’s fixed rate claimed. Most economists warned that cheap silver coins would drive gold coins out of circulation. Our bimetallism guide explains why that happens.

There were reformers who also disliked it. One progressive writer, Henry Demarest Lloyd, called free silver “the cowbird of the reform movement” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia). A cowbird lays its eggs in other birds’ nests. Lloyd used this analogy to suggest that free silver took over a reform movement that others had built beforehand.

A Later Verdict

Milton Friedman, a leading figure of the Chicago School of Economics, looked back at the Coinage Act of 1873. From his vantage point in 1990, he called it “a mistake that had highly adverse consequences.” But he stressed that this was “a judgment about 1873, not 1896.” By the time Bryan ran, Friedman wrote, “it was too late to undo the damage” (https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v98y1990i6p1159-94.html";>Journal of Political Economy).

In short, Friedman thought silver had a case when the Coinage Act of 1873 passed. However, by the time of Bryan’s 1896 election run, the chance to recover silver had long passed.

Free Silver Campaign Culture and Artifacts

Free silver was more than a policy debate. There was a whole culture surrounding it, including its own books, clubs, songs, and even joke money. Some of these pieces survive today.

Coin’s Financial School

After the Panic of 1893, William H. Harvey put out a popular pamphlet called Coin’s Financial School. It argued that silver would reopen closed factories and relight cold furnaces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Silver Clubs

Three silver clubs grew in the mid-1890s. They were the Freemen’s Protective Silver Federation, the Silver Knights of America, and the Patriots of America. Harvey founded the Patriots of America. All three faded after 1896 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Songs and a Silver Fife

Bryan’s campaigns had their own music. Some songs include “Free Silver March” and “Upon a Cross of Gold.” One fife and drum group owns a silver fife that looks handmade. The words “Free Silver Bryan” are carved into its side (https://companyoffifeanddrum.org/news/from-the-archives/silver-fife";>Company of Fifers & Drummers).

Bryan Money

Free silver’s critics mocked it with pieces now called “Bryan Money.” Some were struck in coin silver to show how big a silver dollar would have to be under Bryan’s plan. Some set that size next to a smaller Morgan dollar. Others were cheap tokens with jokes like “In God We Trust, In Bryan We Bust” (https://www.money.org/tales-from-the-vault-bryan-money/";>American Numismatic Association).

Morgan dollars from the free silver era still trade today. You can browse https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/silver-dollars/morgan-dollars";>Morgan silver dollars at Money Metals.

Myth Check: Was The Wizard of Oz About Free Silver?

You may hear that The Wonderful Wizard of Oz is a hidden story about free silver. In the book, Dorothy walks the Yellow Brick Road in silver shoes, unlike the famous ruby slippers of the 1939 film adaptation. A teacher named Henry Littlefield first made the case in 1964 (https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/so-was-the-wizard-of-oz-an-allegory-for-populism";>History News Network).

The evidence is thin. Author L. Frank Baum said he wrote the book “solely to pleasure children of today.” He also backed McKinley in 1896. Littlefield later said there was “no basis in fact” to call Baum a Populist (https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/so-was-the-wizard-of-oz-an-allegory-for-populism";>History News Network). Treat it as a fun classroom theory, not proven history.

Free Silver: APUSH Definition and Significance

Free silver (APUSH definition): a late-1800s movement of farmers, miners, and Populists to have the U.S. Mint coin silver without limit, so the money supply and prices would rise.

Why it matters:

The movement linked Populists and Democrats in common support for Bryan in 1896 (https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Jennings-Bryan";>Britannica).
It showed the Gilded Age split between farmers in debt and lenders in the East (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).
The conflict ended with McKinley’s presidential victories and the passage of the https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-31/pdf/STATUTE-31-Pg45.pdf";>Gold Standard Act of 1900.

Silver After Free Silver

The free silver fight ended in 1900, but silver stayed in American pockets. U.S. dimes, quarters, half dollars, and silver dollars held silver for decades after (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia). Collectors still seek those coins today. Browse https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/collectible-silver-dollars";>collectible silver dollars and half dollars or https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/silver-dollars/morgan-dollars";>Morgan silver dollars at Money Metals.

Free Silver Movement FAQ

The free silver movement was a late-1800s campaign to have the U.S. Mint coin silver without limit. That had previously been the law from 1792 until 1873. Its backers wanted more money in circulation to raise farm prices and ease debts (https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica).

It meant free coinage: anyone could bring silver to the Mint and have it made into coins. That was a right gold owners already had. It never meant silver given away (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

Falling crop prices cut farm income, but loan and mortgage payments stayed the same. More silver money promised higher prices and lighter debts (https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/resources/lessons/lesson--free-silver-movement-and-inflation.pdf";>St. Louis Fed lesson).

It never won city voters or the industrial North, and Bryan lost to McKinley in https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/1896";>1896 and https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/1900";>1900. Then gold finds in the 1890s eased falling prices, and the https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-31/pdf/STATUTE-31-Pg45.pdf";>Gold Standard Act of 1900 settled the question.

Those who supported the movement saw it as a relief from falling prices. Critics, however, warned that it would drive gold out of circulation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia). Milton Friedman, a famous 20th century economist, argued in 1990 that the real mistake came in 1873 with the end of the bimetallic system (https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v98y1990i6p1159-94.html";>Journal of Political Economy).

The Cross of Gold Speech was the famous William Jennings Bryan speech given at the Democratic convention of 1896. It attacked the concept of a gold standard and ended with the line that became a leading slogan of the movement: “You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold” (https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-cross-of-gold-speech/";>Teaching American History).

William Jennings Bryan was 36 when the Democrats nominated him in 1896. He is the youngest major-party presidential nominee in U.S. history (https://adp.library.ucsb.edu/names/102765";>UCSB Library).

Silverites were free silver supporters, mostly Western miners and farmers in the South and on the Plains. Their rivals, who backed gold, were called gold bugs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_silver";>Wikipedia).

It faded after Bryan’s second loss in 1900. That same year, the Gold Standard Act made gold the sole standard for U.S. money (https://www.britannica.com/event/Free-Silver-Movement";>Britannica).

Price Pressures and Fed Pauses: Can Gold and Silver Weather the Storm?

Wed, 04 Nov 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold and silver sold off sharply on Friday. The move was somewhat unusual because bond yields also dropped. This is typically supportive of gold.

So, what happened?

In this episode of the Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey explains the sell-off dynamics, why we could see more near-term selling pressure, and why he remains bullish on gold and silver in the long run.

He also covers the October Fed meeting, emphasizing that a rate-hike pause was the logical move given current economic dynamics.

But what's next?

Mum's the word! The Fed ain't talking!

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Mike opens the show with a bit of advice.

"Never, ever, ever read the comments on social media posts."

He says he tries to live by this mantra "because I am prone to wasting time in inane debates with people who don’t know what they’re talking about. It’s not a good use of time."

However, sometimes, he can't help himself.

"The other day, I clicked on a response to one of my posts on X. It was an article about the selloff in gold and silver last Friday. The post read, “Why did gold sell off steeply on Friday, despite falling bond yields and a modestly weaker dollar? The commenter thought it was necessary to tell me that it was because algorithmic selling kicked in as gold fell below the $4,000 support level and, quote, 'The market doesn't care about your macro checklist.'

"Snarky, eh?

"And it’s almost like he didn’t read the article. Because there was no macro checklist, and I never indicated that the move was a macro move."

But Mike concedes the guy wasn't wrong.

"Markets don’t typically factor in macro dynamics. And that’s why the market often gets things wrong long term. Daily headlines move prices all over the place. Macro factors dictate long-term trajectories. For instance, it’s easy to look at rising oil prices, declare they are causing inflation, and anticipate the Fed will raise interest rates. That’s exactly what the markets have been projecting since the Iran war kicked off. But what about the debt? The Fed can’t just willy-nilly raise rates when a Debt Black Hole dominates the economy. You need that macro perspective to understand the complete picture. So, it’s fair to say the markets don’t care about my macro checklist today. But it damn sure will tomorrow, or at least at some point down the road."

Mike says that when gold and silver started dropping on Friday, he told a coworker, "Gold is acting weird."

"It sold off steeply Friday, despite falling bond yields and a modestly weaker dollar. Paradoxically, the mainstream continues to blame weakness in the gold market on inflation worries. So, investors are dumping their https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/18/golds-role-as-an-inflation-hedge-in-the-21st-century-003263";>inflation hedge. As I said, gold is acting weird. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say investors are acting weird. But perhaps we can make sense of it."

Mike says some of the usual suspects were in play, including higher oil prices, the anticipation of more Fed rate hikes, and inflation worries.

"However, the immediate catalyst for gold’s Friday selloff was most likely connected to the rout in tech stocks. The NASDAQ dipped 2.9 percent on Friday as poor earnings and growing concerns about excessive AI spending and debt sparked bearishness in the sector. The tech selloff also dragged down the S&P 500, which fell by 1.8 percent. Gold prices often fall in tandem with stocks during sharp corrections and in the early stages of a bear market, as investors liquidate winning gold positions to cover losses."

That appears to be what happened Friday.

Mike says additional down days are likely.

"I am medium-term bearish. It wouldn’t surprise me if gold tests $3,500. Meanwhile, silver is already around the $50 support. Several silver analysts I respect said they wouldn’t be concerned if it dipped below $45. However, the long-term bullish factors remain firmly in place. The debasement trade isn’t going anywhere, and the powers that be are going to continue devaluing your dollar. I see this correction and these headwinds as a buying opportunity."

Mike then pivots to the Fed meeting, noting that the central bank put rate hikes on pause for the time being. That was widely expected. However, the markets were hoping for some forward guidance. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh continued to insist that the central bank shouldn't and won't provide hints about the future trajectory of monetary policy in normal circumstances.

Mike said the biggest news from the Fed gathering was the change in future meeting schedules.

"Warsh said the FOMC will still meet eight times a year, calling it 'the right number for the FOMC.' However, one meeting next year will focus solely on strategy, and the committee will not make a rate-setting announcement. In 2028, the FOMC will move to two strategy sessions and six rate-setting meetings."

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Mike calls market reaction to the Fed meeting "tepid."

"I guess that makes sense since the central bank didn’t really do or say anything."

Mike says it remains unclear why the Fed paused rate hikes given that CPI has been above the 2 percent target for 67 consecutive months. Some speculate it was to protect the stock market before the midterm elections.

We’ll never know if political considerations drove the decision, but there are 40 trillion good reasons to hold rates steady despite elevated price inflation.

"Of course, I’m referring to the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>national debt. And that’s just one part of the massive https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>debt black hole dominating the U.S. economy. Debt-riddled economies don’t function well in a high-interest-rate environment."

On the other hand, one can make a strong argument for rate hikes, given persistent inflation.

"This is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Catch-22 the central bank has faced for months, and there’s still no easy way out. It needs to cut rates to support the debt bubble, and it needs to raise rates to slay price inflation. It can’t do both. So, yeah, I guess a pause does make sense in this context."

Mike says the Fed may nudge rates up again in December, but its hiking runway is getting shorter by the day.

"Ultimately, the economy is going to turn. If history is any indication, when push comes to shove, the Fed will choose more easy money despite elevated inflation to support the markets and the broader economy. This is bullish for gold in the long term."

Mike wraps up the show with a quick overview of third-quarter gold demand, noting that he was surprised it remained relatively steady despite the persistent headwinds.

Noting that gold and silver are on sale, Mike ends the show with a call to action, urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 to talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist.

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/18/golds-role-as-an-inflation-hedge-in-the-21st-century-003263";>Gold's Role as an Inflation Hedge in the 21st Century

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/11/03/gold-demand-steady-in-q3-supported-by-etfs-and-central-banks-005341";>Gold Demand Steady in Q3 Supported By ETFs and Central Banks

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/31/steve-penny-on-silvers-next-bull-market-gold-forecasts-and-options-trading-005334";>Steve Penny on Silver's Next Bull Market, Gold Forecast, and Options Trading

Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Rhona O’Connell Examines Gold’s Crosscurrents

O’Connell’s Career Began in Mining

Election Uncertainty Could Weigh on the Dollar

Inflation and the Fed Remain Key Risks

High Yields Could Limit Gold’s Gains

Debt and Private Credit Add to Financial Strains

Singapore and Hong Kong Vie for Asia’s Bullion Trade

Finding StoneX Research

Blue Wave, Red Ink, and Gold

Why Is Gold Valuable - Scarcity, Durability, No Counterparty, and Central Bank Demand - Why Gold Held Its Worth After 1971 and What It Means for Your Savings - Money Metals

Scarcity, Durability and the Monetary History Behind Gold’s Value

Key Factors That Give Gold Its Value

A Simple Framework for Deciding What Gold’s Value Means for You

Common Concerns and Misconceptions About Gold’s Value

“Gold doesn’t pay interest, so how can it be valuable?”

“Isn’t gold’s value just a shared belief?”

“What if the price drops right after I buy?”

Scarcity and Independence Keep Gold Valuable Without a Gold Standard

Australian Man Digs Up 2.5-Pound Potato-Shaped Gold Nugget

ETF Gold Flows Slow in October But Remain Positive

Trading Volumes

What Does the "Blue Wave" Mean for Gold and Silver?

September Central Bank Gold Buying Hit Highest Monthly Total of the Year

Central Bank Gold Accumulation Accelerated in September

The Big Picture

Why Gold Crashed Below $4,000—and What the Fed’s Rate Pause Means for Gold and Silver

Why Gold and Silver Sold Off

What the Fed’s Rate Pause Means

The $40 Trillion Debt Challenge

China’s Gold Buying Contrasts With U.S. Demand

Maharrey’s Outlook for Gold and Silver

Free Silver Movement - William Jennings Bryan, the Populists, and the Cross of Gold Speech - Why Farmers Backed It, the 1896 and 1900 Election Results, and Why It Failed - Money Metals

What Was the Free Silver Movement?

What “Free” Meant: Free Coinage, Not Free Metal

Silverites and Gold Bugs

Why Farmers and Miners Backed Free Silver

Falling Crop Prices, Fixed Debts

Silver Country

The Populists’ 1892 Platform

From the Crime of 1873 to the Panic of 1893

William Jennings Bryan and the Cross of Gold Speech

Who Was William Jennings Bryan?

The 1896 Democratic Platform

Cross of Gold Speech Summary

“You Shall Not Crucify Mankind Upon a Cross of Gold”

The Elections of 1896 and 1900

Two Very Different Campaigns

Results

Why Did the Free Silver Movement Fail?

Was Free Silver a Good Idea?

The Case For

The Case Against

A Later Verdict

Free Silver Campaign Culture and Artifacts

Coin’s Financial School

Silver Clubs

Songs and a Silver Fife

Bryan Money

Myth Check: Was The Wizard of Oz About Free Silver?

Free Silver: APUSH Definition and Significance

Silver After Free Silver

Free Silver Movement FAQ

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Price Pressures and Fed Pauses: Can Gold and Silver Weather the Storm?

Articles Mentioned During the Show