Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

War Headlines Shook Prices, but the Bigger Silver Story Is Still Intact

Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this Money Metals podcast episode, host Mike Maharrey welcomed silver market specialist https://share.google/HgIzzTv5SwtHrdrnZ"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Peter Krauth, author of The Great Silver Bull and publisher of Silver Stock Investor, for a wide-ranging discussion on war, inflation, interest rates, debt, industrial demand, physical silver supply, and the long-term outlook for silver.

Krauth’s core argument was straightforward. In the near term, war-related turmoil can create volatility and even knock gold and silver lower. But over the medium to long term, he said war is deeply inflationary and therefore supportive of both metals.

He pointed to rising oil prices, higher transportation costs, the destruction of infrastructure, and the need to replace weapons and damaged assets. Governments, he argued, do not have the cash to absorb those costs cleanly. In his view, they will print money, and that process will feed inflation over the next several quarters and years.

(Interview Starts Around 5:45 Mark)

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Why Gold and Silver Can Sell Off During a Crisis

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Maharrey noted that many investors were surprised to see an initial safe-haven bump followed by a selloff in both gold and silver after the outbreak of war. Krauth said that the pattern is not unusual. He described precious metals as liquid assets with no counterparty risk, which makes them useful sources of liquidity when institutions or governments need cash fast.

Both men pointed to earlier examples. In 2008, gold and silver sold off sharply during the financial crisis. The same thing happened during the early days of the pandemic. Krauth argued that these moves do not mean the metals have failed. Rather, they are often used exactly as they are meant to be used during periods of stress.

Krauth also highlighted sovereign selling pressure. He cited Turkey as one example, saying it had reduced its gold holdings by roughly 53 tons over the prior month or two in order to help fund its budget. Countries facing higher oil import bills, a stronger U.S. dollar, and rising funding pressure may liquidate precious metals to raise dollars.

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Fed’s Trap

A major part of the conversation focused on the mainstream view that inflation could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates, making gold and silver less attractive because they do not yield income. Krauth said he believes that fear is overstated and likely temporary.

He contrasted today’s fiscal position with the one Paul Volcker faced in the 1970s. Back then, Volcker pushed rates to 18% to 20% to break inflation. But Krauth noted that U.S. debt-to-GDP was only about 35% then. Today, he said, it is over 120%. That difference matters. With debt levels this high, he argued, meaningful rate hikes would make the debt burden much harder to service.

Krauth said the Fed and Treasury are stuck between a rock and a hard place. In his view, they are more likely to tolerate higher inflation than to impose the kind of rate increases that would seriously crush it. He said perhaps rates could remain higher for longer than previously expected, but he does not see a durable return to aggressive hiking.

The Debt Problem Is Getting Harder to Ignore

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The debt discussion became one of the most important parts of the episode. Krauth cited nearly $40 trillion in U.S. debt and stressed how much of it is turning over in a short period. He said that from March 2020 to March 2022, the U.S. issued $6 trillion in new debt. About half of that, he noted, was issued in 2-year to 10-year Treasurys instead of locking in ultra-low 30-year borrowing costs below 2%.

He then pointed to the maturity wall. About $9 trillion came due and rolled over last year, and another $9 trillion to $10 trillion is rolling over this year. That means roughly half of the entire U.S. debt stock is being refinanced across just two years. Krauth argued that this is one more reason the Fed cannot sustain meaningfully higher rates.

Maharrey added a historical perspective. He said https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/02/uncle-sams-balance-sheet-looks-like-bankruptcy-004805";>the national debt in 1995 was under $5 trillion, around $4.9 trillion, during the era of Newt Gingrich and the “Contract with America.” He also observed that no president since Grover Cleveland has left office with less debt than when he came in, including Bill Clinton, despite Clinton posting a few years of budget surpluses.

Maharrey described the problem using Greg Weldon’s phrase, the “debt black hole,” arguing that its pull now affects everything in the economy. He also noted that even during the post-pandemic tightening cycle, financial conditions never became truly tight by historical standards, citing the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index.

Silver’s Industrial Role Keeps Getting Bigger

Krauth emphasized that silver is no longer just a monetary metal story. It is increasingly an industrial metal as well. He said that about five years ago, silver demand was roughly 50% industrial, but last year, industrial demand accounted for about 67% of total silver demand. That shift, he argued, makes silver even more tightly connected to the real economy.

That can cut both ways. If economic growth slows, investors may worry that industrial silver consumption will soften. But Krauth argued that some war-related inflation effects could actually support silver demand in key sectors. He gave the example of energy. Higher oil and gasoline prices can push households and businesses to look more seriously at alternatives such as hybrids, EVs, and solar power.

He cited a BBC report on Octopus Energy, the largest utility energy provider in the U.K., which said demand for solar panels had jumped 50% in recent months. Since solar is the single largest industrial use of silver and accounts for about 20% of all silver demand, Krauth said this kind of shift can offset some cyclical weakness elsewhere.

Military Demand Could Be a Bigger Silver Driver Than Many Realize

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Maharrey also raised the issue of rearmament. Beyond the current war itself, he noted that countries such as Germany, England, and France are ramping up defense spending as Europe adjusts to the possibility of less U.S. support. That matters because military hardware uses a lot of silver.

Krauth said one estimate suggests a Tomahawk missile contains about 150 grams of silver. Once that logic is extended across tanks, surveillance systems, radar, computers, laptops, and replacement electronics, the silver requirement begins to add up quickly.

He said some of the more reasonable estimates suggest military demand could account for around 5% of annual silver demand. That is not the dominant demand category, but it is far from trivial. In an era of expanding military budgets, Krauth sees that as another tailwind for silver.

Structural Deficits Still Matter, Even If the Headlines Have Moved On

The conversation then turned to one of the most important long-term silver themes, structural deficits. Maharrey noted that silver mine output plus recycling has failed to keep pace with total demand for multiple years, forcing users to rely on above-ground stocks. Krauth said that the issue has not gone away, even if media attention has shifted elsewhere.

He compared the movement of silver between London, New York, and Shanghai to a shell game. The metal may move from one exchange system to another, but that does not create more silver. It only changes where the available silver is sitting.

Krauth cited the Silver Institute’s view that the market has already gone through five straight years of structural deficits and is expected to remain in deficit for another five years. He said the Institute has also indicated that a new record high deficit could occur at some point during that period.

He also raised an analytical issue with the way silver ETF demand is treated. Krauth noted that the Silver Institute breaks ETF silver out separately because it is not considered “consumed,” even though physical bars and coins are included in the main demand calculation, despite also being resellable. He argued that if ETF demand is included in the broader total, then 2025 could show the largest silver deficit on record.

The next World Silver Survey, he said, is usually released in mid-April, and he suggested that investors watch it closely for updated numbers.

Peter Krauth’s Favorite Silver Coins and Why Recognition Matters

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To close the interview, Maharrey asked Krauth a lighter question about his favorite silver coin. Krauth picked the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/canadian-silver-maple-leaf";>Canadian Maple Leaf, noting both national pride and practical appeal. He said the Maple Leaf is widely recognized around the world and said Canada was the first to produce a four-nines fine silver coin, which he described as 0.9999 purity.

He also praised the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>American Silver Eagle as another globally recognized standard, and mentioned the Austrian Philharmonic as a regional favorite in Europe. His broader point was that recognizability matters. A well-known bullion coin tends to be more liquid and easier to sell anywhere in the world.

Krauth acknowledged that government-minted coins often carry higher premiums than generic rounds or bars, but said buyers are paying for recognition and should expect to recover much of that premium when selling. He added that bars are usually the cheapest way to get maximum silver for the dollar, though he still thinks it is smart to keep at least a handful of recognizable coins on hand for transaction flexibility.

Final Takeaway

The episode’s central message was that the short-term volatility in silver should not distract investors from the bigger forces at work. Krauth sees war, debt, refinancing pressure, fiscal weakness, industrial demand growth, military consumption, and ongoing structural deficits all reinforcing the long-term case for silver.

Near-term headlines may keep markets jumpy. But in Krauth’s view, the fundamental setup remains increasingly supportive for silver, especially in a world where https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/30/whats-the-real-inflation-rate-004797";>inflation is politically easier than discipline and where demand keeps expanding faster than supply.

Stay in contact with Peter Krauth at https://silverstockinvestor.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Silver Stock Investor HERE.

Stay connected with Money Metals Exchange HERE.

Silver Quarter Years (1796-1964): Key Dates, Silver Content & Value Guide - Money Metals

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Silver quarter years run from 1796 through 1964. All US quarters minted during this period contain 90% silver. The most common silver quarters include Barber quarters (1892-1916), Standing Liberty quarters (1916-1930), and Washington quarters (1932-1964). Each silver quarter contains approximately 0.1808 troy ounces of silver.

The table below shows the most common silver quarter years and their silver content.

Coin Type	Years Minted	Silver Content
Barber Quarter	1892–1916	90% Silver
Standing Liberty	1916–1930	90% Silver
Washington Quarter	1932–1964	90% Silver

These coins remain widely traded today, offering investors a low-cost way to accumulate physical silver and enter the market. This guide will explore what these coins are and how you can make them work for your portfolio.

Complete List of Silver Quarter Years (1796-1964)

The era of silver coinage began shortly after the ratification of the Constitution. To resolve the issue of currency, Congress passed the Coinage Act of 1792. This act established the US Mint, and it established the composition for all coins. All coins were to have a composition of 90% silver and 10% copper.

After that time, six iterations of silver quarters entered circulation:

Draped Bust (1796-1807)
Capped Bust (1815-1838)
Seated Liberty (1838-1891)
Barber (1892-1916)
Standing Liberty (1916-1932)
Washington (1932-1964)

The US Mint created its first quarter in 1796, which had the Draped Bust design. The coin earned its name from the bust of Lady Liberty, who was draped in a mantle in the obverse. This coin design lasted from 1796-1807.

The quarter's circulation was suspended for a period of years, but in 1815, it returned with the Capped Bust design, so-called for the cap worn by Lady Liberty. This coin ran from 1815-1838.

Next was the Seated Liberty design, which ran from 1838 to 1891. This coin gave way to the Barber Liberty coin in 1892, which marks the first “junk silver” coin in the quarter line.

The first three models of quarters are generally held as numismatic coins. Their increased rarity and historical significance make them highly desirable to investors.

When Did The Silver Quarter Years End?

Circulated dimes, quarters, and half dollars minted before 1965, when most of the silver was eliminated in US coinage, is generally referred to as “90% silver” or “https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver";>junk silver.” The designation as “junk” simply https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion/what-is-junk-silver";>differentiates circulated silver coinage in varied conditions from more collectible grade coins which may be graded or have minimal wear. The U.S. government stopped producing 90% silver, precious metal, quarters beginning in 1965.

The three most common designs from the 1892-1964 silver quarter years offer an affordable and accessible way for inexperienced investors to start trading in silver. They are in abundant supply (with some notable exceptions) and generally have very low premiums above the spot value of the silver they contain. Keep reading for a more detailed overview of the merits of junk silver quarters.

Junk Silver 101

“Junk silver” is an informal term, mainly used in The United States (U.S.), the UK, Australia, and Canada to denote all silver coins in cull or fair circulation which have no numismatic value, are not in collectible condition, and are not worth some rare investment.

Though it might seem somewhat pejorative, the term only refers to the silver coin's collectibility, not the value of the silver they contain. Junk silver coinage is still worth the precious metal melt value.

Junk silver coins are often priced near the melt value - the “spot” or market price of silver multiplied by the amount of pure silver content. The lack of any high premium is mainly due to the fact these coins were made in huge quantities and collectors have very little interest.

Demand from https://www.moneymetals.com/bullion";>bullion investors is another matter. These silver coins are very popular with silver investors because they offer a combination that is hard to get elsewhere. They are official government issues and low cost.

Another good thing about junk silver coins is their suitability for barter. Many investors understand the US dollar could completely fail.

Fiat currency collapses have occurred throughout history when governments abuse the trust in them, and the dollar is certainly not immune. The small, or fractional size, of 90% silver quarters makes them ideal if needed to trade for low-value items such as groceries.

Types of United States Quarter Dollars

Liberty Head “Barber”

The Liberty Head “Barber” quarter, equalling twenty-five cents (USD $0.25), was introduced in 1892, along with the rest of the Barber series of coins which included a half dollar, dime, and nickel. The designs for all four coins were created by Charles Barber, the chief engraver with the US Mint at that time.

Barber was chosen to design the coins after a failed competition. Few artists applied since only the winner of the contest would be awarded a cash prize and no suitable design was chosen.

The minting commenced in 1892 and new coins were met with mixed reception from the public. The coins were replaced in 1916 after their minimum term expired.

On the obverse, the coins feature the head of liberty (Barber's design) and the inscription “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.” The year of mintage is featured beneath the portrait of Liberty. The denomination is stamped on the reverse of the coin within a wreath. The quarter coin weighs 6.25 grams and is 24.3 mm in diameter. The silver content in each uncirculated coin is 0.1808 troy ounces, but will produce less silver after heavy circulation considering daily wear.

Standing Liberty

The Standing Liberty quarter was minted from 1916 to 1930. It was introduced to replace the Barber-designed quarter. The initial design was by Hermon Atkins MacNeil, a prominent sculptor at that time.

Standing Liberty quarters remained in production until 1930 when it was discontinued. However, there was a production pause in 1922. The Philadelphia Mint was the primary facility producing quarters, though some quantities were made in San Francisco and Denver.

In its final version, the obverse of the coin features a portrait of the Standing Lady Liberty facing the viewer's right. A shield is in her left hand (viewer's right) and an olive branch is in her right. The inscription “LIBERTY” is above the portrait.

On the reverse, the coin features an eagle in flight as the central motif. The “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” inscription is at the top and “QUARTER DOLLAR” is inscribed at the bottom. The “E PLURIBUS UNUM” inscription and 13 stars can be found on the reverse.

The coin has the same weight and size specifications as the “Barber” silver quarter. It is made of the same 90% silver, 10% copper alloy, and contains 0.1808 troy ounces of silver.

Washington Quarter

The Washington silver quarter was introduced in 1932. The Washington quarter has a face value of twenty-five cents (USD $0.25) as being a quarter of a dollar. Production continued until the US Mint switched over to the copper-nickel alloy in 1965. The original Washington quarter silver coinage design by sculptor John Flanagan was chosen by Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon.

The coin was introduced on August 1, 1932, to commemorate 200 years since the birth of George Washington. Several minor redesigns were introduced before the coin's retirement in 1965. In 1976, a special edition marking 200 years of the United States was issued. Since then, the coin's design has been featured in several other special collections, most notably in the America the Beautiful series of coins.

The original coin features a bust of George Washington on the obverse, accompanied by the inscriptions “LIBERTY” above the bust, the issue date below the bust, and “IN GOD WE TRUST” to the right. The mint mark is also on the right side.

The Reverse has a bald eagle with the inscriptions “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” and “E PLURIBUS UNUM” above and “QUARTER DOLLAR”.

Most coins up to 1964 were made with 90 percent silver and 10 percent copper and have the same silver content as the previous two coins.

How To Identify Silver Quarter Years

If you're not sure whether your quarter is a silver quarter, there are a few ways to gain some certainty. First, check the year on the obverse of the coin. If the year is from before 1965, there is a high likelihood it is silver.

However, counterfeit silver coins do exist. Alternatively, your coin may not be in the best condition, making the year hard to see.

So, here's another quick check. Look at the edge of your coin.

Silver coins famously have a bright white edge. Quarters from 1965 and on often have a reddish-brown edge, a consequence of the alloy used to craft these quarters.

If you want another layer of certainty, another home test you can do is weigh the coin. Silver quarters have a weight of 6.25 grams.

The best way to tell for sure whether your quarters are silver is to send them to a coin evaluation service, as NGC. These services specialize in determining a coin's condition and grade, which will give you a clear evaluation of your coin's composition.

Investing in Silver Quarters

Junk silver is a great option for silver investors. The coins command a small premium above the spot price of silver and are abundantly available. Official US coins often carry higher prices, but Junk silver quarters are an exception. For those who simply want highly liquid and easy-to-trade silver at low cost, these quarters will be hard to beat.

Junk Silver quarters were made until 1964 when the US Mint switched over to copper-nickel alloy. Along with junk silver dimes, they are one of the most affordable ways to buy silver bullion. There are three designs of silver quarter coins still widely available.

Despite the “junk” nickname, these quarters are quite popular with investors and will always be easy to trade.

Top 5 Reasons to Store Your Gold and Silver at Money Metals Depository

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

“If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it” is one of the most common phrases in the precious metals investing sphere.

It is an axiom that reflects the desire to eliminate counterparty risk, and consciously deciding to hold all of one’s own precious metals in direct proximity.

The origins of the phrase are unknown, but its philosophical origins could be traced to the Austrian School of Economics and such key economists as Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek.

These thought leaders espoused that individuals should have control over their own property, that there should be healthy skepticism of centralized financial systems, and that there are very real dangers of credit expansion and custodial risks.

This certainly applies to investments, including gold or silver.

As a general rule of thumb, people should have direct ownership of their precious metals items. This ensures that they have what they have, it can be sold at any time without outside delays, and it is not being jeopardized by anyone or anything.

Citizens are rightly cautious of outside institutions, whether private or public, when holding their metals. There have been cases over the years of bad actors in the precious metals industry stealing gold and silver, or government agencies confiscating it out of safe deposit boxes relating to investigations of others.

Paper investing, such as stocks or ETFs, is quite similar to an outside institution holding a person’s gold or silver when they invest. Even where the gold or silver ETFs are claimed to be backed by sufficient metal, there could be a daisy chain of custodians and subcustodians involved. And proper performance by all involved is a must.

ETF shareholders have title to a security instrument, not the underlying physical metals. As more and more counterparties get involved, the risks multiply.

Meanwhile, keeping all of your precious metal investments at home is not always a viable option for everyone. Some people move a lot, easily lose things, or are forgetful. A depository account holder can designate a beneficiary to ensure a smooth transition to heirs.

Burglaries, home invasions, fires, storms, and death can lead to a loss. Insurance on precious metals held at home is expensive, assuming you can get it at all. That's why some folks look for a safe alternative to holding metals at home.

So, when should someone consider putting their precious metals in a depository? The following are five examples of situations where it makes sense…

Proper Insurance Available Via Depositories

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Insurance is usually not enough to protect your precious metals at home. Storing your precious metals in a trusted depository helps properly insure your metals at a lower relative cost.

Most Americans have homeowners or renters insurance, and most insurance companies offer some coverage for precious metals like gold and silver. However, the amount that is covered might surprise you.

Most insurance companies are only going to offer less than a thousand dollars in coverage for gold and silver, unless you tell them how much gold and silver you have. Even after telling them how much value you store at home, more coverage would likely require paying annually at least one percent of the metals’ average market value.

If your insurance company will actually allow you to insure as much as $50,000 worth of gold and silver, you’d be looking at $500 per year in additional premiums.

By contrast, by storing your precious metals in a depository, such as the Money Metals Depository, your precious metals are fully insured and protected 24/7 at no more than half that cost.

Vault Storage Can Be a Superior, Convenient Savings Method

Having a savings account is a great way to plan for the future, and a precious metals depository account is a prime example of such a savings account.

Sometimes the best way to save money is by removing it from your immediate grasp. For this reason, people tend to store their extra cash in savings accounts to create a safe and structured way of storing wealth for long-term planning.

By storing your metals in a depository, such as the Money Metals Depository, you safely and securely store your metals while keeping them out of sight and out of mind. Then, when you wish to sell your metals or to get a loan against your metals, you can normally receive payment within a couple of days. You can also have your gold and silver mailed directly to your residence.

In essence, a person exchanges their fiat currency for sound money, gold, and silver, and then that sound money is stored in the depository as a savings account that hedges against inflation. This is a sound and disciplined investment strategy.

Historically speaking, gold and silver have outperformed dollar holdings since USD, or Federal Reserve Notes, are being deliberately debased. So, savings in precious metals is likely a superior way of saving when compared to cash holding in a traditional bank savings account.

Security at Home Can Be Iffy

Most people do not have the security necessary for storing at home. In contrast, storing precious metals in a commercial depository does provide the necessary security for protecting them.

A person’s job or activities mean one’s home could be vacant for hours or days at a time. Absence from your home leaves you at a higher risk of being robbed or even lost in a fire.

Some people are also risk-prone because they like to show off their precious metals stack to their neighbors, social media, etc, leaving them as a prime target for theft or burglary.

Money Metals Depository has 24/7 security, fully armed and trained staff, temperature controls, fire protection, and enough galvanized steel and reinforced concrete to make it the largest privately owned depository in the United States.

So, in order to protect your metals from theft, burglary, or fire, storing them in a depository may be a better option than holding your gold and silver at home.

Safe Deposit Boxes Have Drawbacks

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There are very real limits to safe deposit boxes (aka, safety deposit boxes) when compared to storing precious metals in a depository account.

Few realize that storing your gold or silver in a safe deposit box does not provide any additional insurance for your precious metals or anything stored in that account. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) does not cover gold, silver, or anything else stored in a safe deposit box.

Furthermore, contents of a safe deposit box can be subject to IRS sanctions, federal agency seizures, court orders, FinCEN rules, and “national security” compliance via the PATRIOT ACT and the USA FREEDOM ACT.

The Money Metals Depository provides fully insured, segregated, and audited storage with stronger ownership protections and allows owners to quickly access and control their metals. Money Metals even offers a video of a person’s depository holdings once per year, providing additional peace of mind when storing at Money Metals Depository.

Storage Sidesteps All Shipping Problems

When a person buys precious metals, such as gold or silver, online, those metals are then mailed to them. Mailing gold or silver creates more risks and costs, and is not always the best idea for everyone.

Buying and automatically storing in a depository account removes such risks, as well as the potential costs associated with not receiving the metal that you paid for.

Some areas have higher risks of lost or stolen packages, even when you’re using registered mail from the United States Postal Service (USPS).

FedEx and UPS do not even insure gold or silver shipments at all. In fact, some criminals intentionally look for packages coming from precious metal related addresses, such as online precious metals dealers or wholesalers, or package markings indicating such.

Sometimes, it’s the logistics company employees themselves who steal packages containing precious metals.

On the other hand, a person who buys gold or silver on MoneyMetals.com and has the metal automatically deposited into their Money Metals Depository account, there is no shipping involved. So there can be no shipping costs or losses.

In conclusion, while Money Metals recognizes the validity of the axiom “If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it,” we also recognize the importance of properly storing precious metals. And not everyone has the same needs.

For each of the aforementioned types of gold and silver buyers, the best solution could be storing their precious metals at Money Metals Depository.

Iran War’s Financial Impact Creates Short-Term Headwinds for Gold

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Later in today’s program we’ll hear a tremendous interview with one of our favorite guests to talk to about silver Peter Krauth, author of the book The Silver Bull and publisher of the Silver Stock Investor. Peter shares his thoughts on how the war is going to affect the silver market, both in the short run – where he admittedly sees it being a potential drag on the metal – but also over the longer term and what his outlook is for the silver there as well.

Mike Maharrey and Peter also discuss the debt black hole, the inflationary trap we’ve found ourselves in and how that situation is made even worse due to the Iran war. In addition to those topics Peter also weighs in on other matters, besides than war, that will be driving silver prices over the near to medium term in his view.

So be sure to stick around for another wonderful interview with Peter Krauth, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

After an initial safe-haven boost at the onset of the Iran war, gold corrected and has behaved more like a risk asset. However, HSBC analysts say the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization trend still makes the yellow metal a good long-term investment.

As we've noted here before at Money Metals, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/03/how-has-war-impacted-the-gold-price-in-the-modern-era-004733";>wars in the modern era often do not have a major impact on the gold price beyond an early safe-haven bid. After a brief initial spike, other factors in the economy have tended to drive the gold price, particularly the trajectory of monetary policy.

This has proved true during the current conflict. Gold initially surged to $5,400 an ounce at the onset of hostilities but quickly corrected and then sold off.

As oil prices spiked, inflation worries threw a wet blanket on hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Some analysts have even predicted a new hiking cycle. This has created significant headwinds for gold as a non-yielding asset. While https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2026/03/25/the-case-against-gold-004787";>we don’t think this case against gold stands up to scrutiny, the narrative does seem to be currently controlling the market.

HSBC analysts noted that interest rate worries and a strong dollar have created significant headwinds for gold since the war kicked off.

But they pointed out that gold’s performance during the tightening cycle in 2022 and 2023 undercut the narrative that gold can’t chart gains in a higher-rate environment.

Meanwhile, the relationship between real rates and gold appears to have broken down. Gold is effectively serving as a risk asset in the current market, with speculators and traders in control.

“Ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers, many of whom are forced to liquidate holdings in periods of market stress,” HSBC said.

Meanwhile, the war may well accelerate this trend as more countries become wary of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the dollar. The war will also drive more borrowing and spending, further eroding https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/national-debt-quietly-eclipses-39-trillion-004774";>Uncle Sam’s abysmal fiscal situation. Many countries are already becoming wary of loaning https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/26/the-us-government-is-insolvent-yes-that-matters-004791";>a bankrupt U.S. government more money.

We're already seeing evidence in this with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/26/india-increasingly-using-dollar-alternatives-for-oil-purchases-004789";>India bypassing the dollar in some oil transactions.

The U.S. dollar isn't in danger of losing its reserve status anytime soon. However, that doesn’t preclude a diversification of reserves and a modest decline in dollar demand.

Even a modest decline in dollar reserves spells trouble for an economy that depends on foreign dollar demand to support its money-printing habit. If the world needs fewer dollars, they will begin to return to the U.S., causing a dollar glut. This will increase inflationary pressure domestically as the value of the U.S. currency further depreciates. In the worst-case scenario, the dollar could collapse completely, leading to hyperinflation.

We've had a lot of new money come into the gold market, and that led to a parabolic rally in January. When a market goes up like this, it really invites volatility. Just because gold is a safe haven and a quality asset doesn't mean it's not going to be volatile.

Well, before we get to this week’s interview, which will dive more into silver, let’s take a look at where the market closed the week. With today being Good Friday global markets are closed and thus the prices are fixed. With that said, Money Metals is open for business as usual both today and Saturday.

Gold rose nearly $200 on the week and closed Thursday at $4,687, good for a 4.3% weekly advance during this holiday shortened week.

Silver meanwhile rose an even $4 and trades at $73.75, advancing 5.7%. Platinum climbed 7.0% to close at $1,997 an ounce.

And finally, palladium was the biggest winner among all the precious metals this week, rising 9.7% to come in at $1,521 an ounce.

Well now, without further delay and for much more on silver, let’s get right to our exclusive interview with author and resource sector industry insider Peter Krauth.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by one of my favorite silver gurus, Peter Kraut. Peter is the author of a book, The Great Silver Bull. He's the publisher of the Silver Stock Investor and very knowledgeable on the silver market. How you doing today, Peter?

Peter Krauth: I'm doing well and great to be here with you, Mike. Always fun time chatting.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. It's always delightful to have you on and never a lack of things to talk about. So, I guess we have to talk about the war because that seems to be the dominant thing that's going on right now in the markets. And of course, we had kind of an initial safe haven bump at the very initiation of the conflict, but both silver and gold quickly sold off after that. And we've seen silver in the low 60s to mid 70s kind of fluctuating back and forth with quite a bit of volatility. And I'm curious if the war has changed your calculus on the silver market at all.

Peter Krauth: That's a good question. What I would say is in the near term, yes. In the medium to long term, no. In fact, it has bolstered it because war is inflationary. And we see that, of course, with the oil prices right now, but we're going to see that, I think, trickle through and be more widely pronounced over the next several quarters and years. We've got high oil prices that are affecting transportation. They're affecting things made of oil, which there are so many these days, plastics and well beyond packaging, you name it. And then the transportation that needs to get everything we consume daily to market and into stores. So there's that. Then you've got all the arms that you're blowing up and all of the infrastructure that you're blowing up. So all of this is going to need to be replaced. Governments don't have the money for that.

They're going to print it. So it'll be inflationary. And that's about as simply as I can put it. So, that's why I believe medium to long-term, very much inflationary, very supportive of silver and gold prices. And I think that's what we have to focus on and look forward to. In the near term, you're right. We saw an initial bump and then a correction. And to be honest, that is, and I'm not here making excuses, but that is typical of how precious metals behave. And in fact, they're doing their job because they provide liquidity. They have no counterparty risk. They had been very strong, and so they had moved up significantly. When people or institutions or governments needed to find liquidity, that was an obvious place. And so we've seen some liquidation. We've also seen central banks, for example, certain ones have started to sell. Think about it.

Many countries are oil importers. They now have to pay more for that oil. They need liquidity for it. They have to pay for it in US dollars, which have moved up. And they have to use more dollars because the price has moved up. So you've seen Turkey, for example, has reduced its holdings by something like 53 tons in the last sort of month or two, and that's to help fund its budget. So other countries are doing the same thing. And that's what happens in times of economic stress. You get precious metals, they do their job. They are a liquid asset, as I say, with no counterparty risk. And so they've done what they're there and meant to do.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. You make a really good point too, because I think we tend to think of gold and silver both as safe haven assets, and they are. And yet we do see historically at the beginning, particularly of deep crises, we've seen this selloff 2008. After the financial crisis, we had a pretty steep selloff. In the early days of the pandemic, both gold and silver crashed. So again, not anything that's unusual. So I'm curious what you make of this, because I agree with you on the inflation aspect. And that's really, to me, one of the primary things that I'm looking at, monetary policy and the fact that the dollar is constantly being devalued. But the mainstream mentality seems to be, "Oh no, we're going to have a lot of inflation, so therefore the Fed is going to raise interest rates. So therefore we have to sell our gold and silver because they're non-yielding assets." And I've always kind of thought, "I don't know if I want to be selling my inflation hedge when I know there's going to be inflation, but that seems to be the mindset." What do you make of this?

Peter Krauth: Well, you're right. I believe that is how people are thinking about it, and that is possible, and I believe only very near term, a very near term risk. What are the odds of them raising rates? I think they're pretty low. I think the odds are more that they will hold rates perhaps longer than we had expected before this war became an issue, but I don't see them stopping with rate cutting. A great example I like to use is that in the 1970s, you had Volker who stepped in and really, frankly, saved the economy from hyperinflation. He raised rates to 18, 20%. And this was really to break the back of inflation. There was a very big difference in terms of the overall, I guess you would call it fiscal health at the time. Debt, US debt to GDP was just 35%. Today, it's over 120%.

So, how can you possibly raise rates anywhere near anything like that to kill inflation when there is so much debt out there? So much, much higher debt, just to be clear, at much higher interest rates means a much more difficult time servicing that debt. So, they're stuck between ... Treasury and the Fed are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Pick your poison. I think they will err on the side of more inflation because it's harder to kind of pinpoint and blame someone for it. And certainly, I think that's what we should expect. I can't honestly see any kind of meaningful odds for a scenario where they're going to start raising rates. I'm not saying it can't happen. Maybe in an extreme case, a quarter point, once, twice, even that I think is unlikely, most likely, and that's what people are worried about right now, and that's what has sort of worked its way against gold and silver.

There's been this expectation of a pause, which wasn't the case before, so that has changed the outlook temporarily. I don't think expect that to last. So like you, I think that we need to look beyond that. And all of what's happening now is very inflationary. Don't expect rates to rise. Expect them to stay put perhaps near term, then fall, and to resume their fall. And I've been saying this for a while, and I believe that's why we've seen gold in particular, initially at least, rise so much and so steadily, was we saw the Fed start to cut rates in the face of maintained high and rising inflation. To me, that was sort of a game of chicken that investors said, "All right, so all credibility is gone. You say you're going to fight inflation, but really you're not, and you can't." And so we see inflation high in rising, your cutting rates, that's because you don't have a choice.

That's going to continue, and they don't have a choice. At 40 trillion ... There's a few interesting stats, if I may. Nearly 40 trillion dollars of debt in the US. In the March 2020 to March 2022 period, $6 trillion of new debt was issued. Half of that was two to 10 year treasuries, and yet 30 years were ultra-low, below 2%, I think at the time. It would have been a gift to issue debt for 30 years at such low rates. That is not what happened. Last year, $9 trillion came due, rolled over. This year, another nine to $10 trillion of debt is being rolled over. That's half of the entire US debt between last year and this year. That's a huge maturity wall. And I think that, again, is a huge defense, I guess, if you could put it that way, for the thought that it's impossible for the Fed to raise rates.

They have to cut rates. The deficit is so big and growing. It's a vicious circle. It's bad enough as it is. It just gets worse. So if at least at lower rates, it makes it that much easier to service. So that's a way to kind of inflate away the debt to some extent.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that's a really, really good point. I was looking today, go back to 1995, which was when we were having, what did they call it? the contract for America. And New Gingrich and the Republicans were really pushing this. We've got to get the debt under control. We've got to get the spending under control. You know what the national debt was in 1995? It was under $5 trillion. It was 4.9 something trillion dollars. So, it just shows you the trajectory of it. And I was talking to a friend of mine the other day. We've never had a president since Grover Cleveland that has left office with less debt than when he came into office. That's a long time ago. That includes Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton did have a few years of surpluses. He still left office with more debt than when he came in.

Peter Krauth: There you go.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I talk about this a lot. I think that that's the elephant in the room that so many people are ignoring. Our friend Greg Weldon calls it a debt black hole. And I think that's a perfect example because a black hole, its gravity impacts everything around it. And that's exactly what this is doing to the economy. And you're right, that the bit can't raise rates significantly in this environment. And it's interesting. You go back to the tightening cycle that we had when inflation jumped to nine, 10% of the CPI. I hate conflating the CPI and inflation. When CPI does that, during that whole time, if you go look at the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index, during that entire time, it never became tight from a historical perspective. We have not had tight monetary policy since before the pandemic.

Peter Krauth: Yeah. I think the unfortunate part is that too many people are either not interested or find it too difficult to grasp. And if you boil it down simply enough, which I actually did try to do in my book purposely, to keep the explanation of some of these concepts as simple as possible, then I think that's kind of what leads to the apathy, I guess, is the best way to put it. People don't grasp it, feel it's beyond them. And even Keens themselves said, not one in, I think it's a million is going to notice the tax that you have from inflation. So it's an easy one to get away with, frankly.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. That's why they love it, right? It's the beautiful hidden tax and it sustains the borrowing and spending. So, we may have answered the question when we talk about the debt, but I'm curious, the thing that seems to be driving the markets right now, and this is all of them, our war headlines, right? Trump can come out today and say, "We're negotiating and we're about to have a ceasefire and then stocks will rise and everything." And then we'll get another tweet or a post on X or whatever and then the markets will tank. But obviously there's a lot going on besides the war. Is there anything in particular that you're kind of watching that's not war related and it might be the debt, that might be the answer, but I was curious if there was anything else that you're kind of watching.

Peter Krauth: I mean, when I talk about silver, I've got to say, if I may, and this sort of doesn't really quite answer your question, but I think it's worth pointing out that silver is an industrial metal more and more. It's moved from five years ago being 50% industrially consumed into like 67% last year industrial demand being all silver, 67% of demand being industrial demand for silver. So that's really, it's just become so much more part of our economy and of industry. So there is concern that if the economy slows down that you may have less consumption of silver because it's in electronics, it's in all sorts of industrial applications and we won't go into all of that. But it's interesting that higher oil price actually, despite initially denting silver because the US dollar went up, it hasn't taken long for at least anecdotally, certain things to shift very quickly.

I mean, people are looking at ... So, high oil means high gasoline prices. People are looking more seriously at hybrids and EVs. People are looking at ... Actually, there was an interesting article in the BBC talking about how the largest utility energy provider in the UK called Octopus Energy. They have said that in the last couple of months, they've seen demand for solar panels jump by 50% in the UK. So people are saying, "Well, if heating oil's going up so quickly because of oil prices, what else can I do? " And so they would shift to this alternate form of renewable energy, which as you know, Mike consumes a fair bit of silver. In fact, solar is the single largest industrial use for silver. It's 20% of all silver demand. So these kinds of things will balance perhaps what we are concerned about in terms of silver consumption when we see the war at dent silver prices initially and the safe haven, perhaps the safe haven attraction initially of silver.

It quickly balances out and this could certainly cause things to flip on the demand side and the price side pretty quickly.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. And I would say too that the rapid militarization that we're seeing, I mean, not only from the war, which is obviously a big part of it, but then just this kind of shift we're seeing with the US maybe being less involved in European defense. So we're seeing countries like Germany and England and France ramping up military spending. Military stuff uses a lot of silver.

Peter Krauth: It sure does.

Mike Maharrey: And nobody can really pinpoint exactly how much, but everybody I've ever asked is like, it's a lot.

Peter Krauth: That's right. That's right. In fact, I saw an article this morning, there's an interesting new Substack called the Sound Money Report and shout out to them. They do a great job. It's at least partly by the guys who produce the In Gold We Trust report every year.

They have some great macro stuff. And I think it was today's issue written by a guy by the name Ryan Blanchette, who knows the defense sector quite well. And he was saying how important silver is to defense and to military. And he was trying to come up with some estimates. And he said, you're looking at, for example, Tomahawk missiles and best number he can come up with, again, there's not a lot of clarity around this, but is 150 grams of silver per missile. Well, you start blowing up a few of these and you start having to replace all kinds of electronics in tanks, in surveillance equipment, radar, computers, laptops. Oh, I'm just talking militarily at this point. And before you know it, you're at several billion dollars of silver consumption. So it really doesn't take very much. And I think there's always going to be a lack of clarity around that.

But the sort of most reasonable estimates I've come across where that military could account for about 5% of silver demand every year. So certainly not insignificant. And like you say, as military spending and build out ramps up, that's going to cause very likely more and more demand for silver that is so crucial to it.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So one of the things that we've talked about a lot in the silver market is the structural deficits. We've seen multiple years where mine output and recycling has not kept up with demand. That means that users are having to tap into above ground sources to get their silver. That requires higher prices because you have to entice people to get rid of the silver they have. And one of the things that seemed to really drive the two squeezes that we saw that pushed silver so much higher was this displacement of metal where you had all of the metal, not all of it, but a lot of silver went to New York because of tariff worries. And then when Indian demand spiked, there wasn't enough metal in London. And then we kind of got the metal back to London and then there's been reports of shortages in the Asian markets.

So I'm curious, we're not really hearing a lot about it because of the war, but are you still seeing this displacement of metal? Is there still some volatility there in terms of people actually sourcing physical metal?

Peter Krauth: Yeah. So that's an interesting point you've brought up. I like to liken that to a shell game. So you've got these shells, you've got the same amount of silver and you're just kind of moving the shells around. And at one point it's under one shell, which may be the LVMA. At another point it might be under another shell, Comex, and then maybe under the shell that's the Shanghai Futures Exchange, but you don't have more silver around. And there's been, as you say, there's been less talk about that lately. I don't think that has changed. The Silver Institute last year said they think that ... Well, they said that not only have we been through the past five years of structural deficit, but they expected the next five years to also maintain structural deficits and that we would likely reach a new record high deficit at some point in the next five years.

So, another interesting point is if you look at the numbers that the Silver Institute puts out, in fact, we should expect, I think in the next couple of weeks, usually it's mid-April that the next World Silver Survey comes out. Last year's, or I should say they do a bit of an update in November every year after a good part of the year has gone by and they have some numbers, they can bring us some more sort of clarity. And their forecast was that for 2025, we would have a deficit that had shrank. So looking sort of not as crucial as perhaps the last year or in the year before. However, they also show silver that moves into silver ETFs as a separate line item, which I have some issues with because their argument is that, well, this silver isn't consumed. So if it goes into an ETF, people who hold the ETF could always sell their units and that sort of pushes more silver back into the market, making it available.

Well, interestingly enough, you tell me, Mike, wouldn't that be the same case for physical bars and coins? In other words, if you're buying physical coins and bars, you're not consuming them, you could turn around and sell them back to the market. And so, and yet the physical coins and bars are included in the main calculation of demand, whereas the ETF silver is shown separately. And then it's shown separately, but then they give you a final total if you do include it. Well, if you do include it, then 2025 is going to have the largest silver deficit we've ever seen. So take that for what it's worth. It's true that that silver ETF or physically bought and held can shift around and come back to market on a whim. But that's pretty interesting to me to see how strong the investment demand from ETFs could be that we're going to be at a record high deficit.

So, it's definitely something to watch. I think that this is something that could surprise a lot of people once again and keep an eye on that.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Okay. Let me get you out on this one. I don't want to keep you too long. We're running out of time, but this one's kind of a little fun question for you. I'm curious as to what's your favorite silver coin? Do you have a coin that you really like? I mean, just it could be for whatever reason, it could be sentimental or whatever.

Peter Krauth: I mean, look, I'm a Canuck. So the Canadian maple is my favorite. It's common, relatively common. It's recognized worldwide. And they were the first to actually, if I have this right, they were the first to produce a four nines silver, pure silver coin. So that's 0.999 purity. And that's basically become the standard. So it looks nice too. I mean, not so sure about the queen on one side, but I like that maple leaf at least. And then I would say that, and it makes sense. So I have nothing against numismatics, but it's a whole world onto itself. You really have to be very, very informed, I think, and be very careful about what you're buying and what you're paying for. That's different for bullion type coins. So the Maple Leaf is, I think, sort of a standard for pretty much anyone. And I like the, to be fair, I like the eagle as well.

It's also a set of standard. It's very, very well recognized all around the world. And so I think these are the kinds of things that make sense. In Europe, they've got the Philharmonic, I think, which is produced by the Austrian mint. So every region kind of has its favorite and its standard go- to mines the maple leaf with the eagle as a close second.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Those are good ones. And I think you make a really good point in the fact that you need to have that recognizability if you want to be able to have your silver be liquid, right? Exactly. I know that if I have a maple leaf, if I have an American eagle, I know that pretty much anybody in the world is going to recognize that as a good coin that they're going to want to have. And as you say, with the numismatics, what's the date? I don't want to get into all that. That's too much for my little brain to handle.

Peter Krauth: There's an important point to make too. I mean, think people look at, and to be fair, they're right. You have to be careful, but they look at mint issued coins and they say, "Well, premiums are pretty high over the milk value, over the actual physical silver in that coin." And that's true, but you're paying for that recognition, and you're also going to get a lot of that back the day that you sell it, and especially if you're selling it one day at much, much higher prices. So these are things that people have to kind of use and balance when they think about what the premiums are. I certainly favor those over the non-mint type coins, but anyone will buy whatever works best for them. And the bars obviously is the sort of the cheapest way to get the most value for dollar when it comes to silver.

But transaction-wise, I think it's smart to have at least a handful of coins at hand and available.

Mike Maharrey: Yep, I agree completely. So before we go, I do want you to let folks know where they can follow your work, pitch your book and all of the things that you're doing so folks can avail themselves to your wealth of silver knowledge.

Peter Krauth: Well, thanks for that. So my book, which was published four years ago, is The Great Silver Bull, and it gives you an overview of the silver market and how to invest in silver and silver mining equities. Other than that, my newsletter is Silver Stock Investor. You can find it at silverstockinvestor.com. And I'm pretty active on X. I'm active on LinkedIn. You can find me there and those are some of the best ways to follow my work.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Every time I have you on, I brag about your book because I really do think it's one of the best books out there on silver, just because of the way it's organized. And as you alluded to earlier, you do really endeavor to make very complicated things simple so that you don't have to be a finance major to pick up your book and, "Oh, I get this. " So I highly encourage folks, if you want to take a deep dive into the silver market, check out that book. Well, I'm going to let you go because I know you've got many, many things to do, but I appreciate the fact that you've taken a little bit of time to hang out with me and we will definitely have you back on. Hopefully next time we talk, there won't be a war on and we can focus on ... I'm sure there'll be more chaos of some other type.

Peter Krauth: Highly likely.

Mike Maharrey: But, it'll be different at least, right?

Peter Krauth: Exactly. It's always fun talking with you. Love the interaction and the questions, and I certainly look forward to the next time as well.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. We have a fantastic rest of your day.

Peter Krauth: You bet. You too.

Some more great analysis there from our friend Peter Krauth and I hope you enjoyed that interview

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. Check out the Money Metals Midweek Memo podcast as well. And to listen to any of our audio programs just go to https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on places like Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or other popular podcast platforms. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/";>Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful Easter weekend everybody. He is risen!

Download Your Free Copy of Money Metals Insider NOW! (Spring 2026)

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

We're pleased to provide you free access to the Spring 2026 issue of Money Metals Insider... https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/MoneyMetalsInsider_Spring2026.pdf";>Get it here!

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It's packed with actionable information about the markets and special offerings from Money Metals, the top-rated precious metals dealer and depository in the United States.

The https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/MoneyMetalsInsider_Spring2026.pdf";>newsletter leads off with JPMorgan's recent https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/24/jpmorgan-ceo-this-looks-a-lot-like-the-run-up-to-2008-004716";>bullish gold call, despite the metal's price weakness since February.

Investors are well served by being patient and keeping the big picture in mind.

Gold's gains have already been astounding in recent years, but nothing goes up in a straight line!

Sticking with that theme in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/12/why-dead-investors-beat-the-market-as-gold-surges-past-5000-004754";>another article, Mike Maharrey rhetorically argues why those who are not living are often better investors than those among us. Next we update you on a major government power grab we've been seeing at the state level.

Money Metals has helped lead a major pushback against these https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/27/georgia-rejects-big-government-transactional-gold-bill-joining-more-than-a-dozen-other-states-004793";>bad bills to protect the public and also the industry.

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What Causes Silver Prices to Fluctuate? Key Factors - Money Metals

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Silver prices fluctuate due to changes in supply and demand, inflation expectations, real interest rates, U.S. dollar strength, industrial demand, investor sentiment, and monetary policy shifts. Because silver serves both industrial and monetary roles, it tends to be https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>more volatile than gold. In practice, https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver prices reflect changes in supply and demand more sharply than many investors expect

This fluctuation has caused many observers to ask a fundamental question: what causes silver prices to fluctuate? A huge part of this fluctuation comes from silver's somewhat unique role as a hybrid metal. It is part industrial metal, part monetary metal.

This hybrid role makes silver function differently from gold, which is primarily a monetary metal. It is far more volatile, a fact that matters for investors. Understanding how silver functions can help you understand the demand for the metal, which can help you decide when to buy silver. If you're trying to put that knowledge into action, it also helps to understand https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-silver";>when it may be a good time to buy silver based on broader market conditions.

We will explore the factors that can cause silver prices to fluctuate in this guide. By the end, you will have a better understanding of what can affect prices ... and how to make the silver price work for your portfolio!

What Causes Silver Prices to Fluctuate: The Fundamentals of Supply and Demand

There are three main factors that contribute to silver price fluctuation:

Mining production
Industrial demand
Investment demand

Let's break down what each of these entails in a bit more detail.

Mining Production

The first factor in determining silver price is mining output. The output of a mine affects the silver supply, which in turn affects price. If there is a tight supply of silver, it will cause prices to rise, especially in times of high demand. That is why many investors pay close attention to https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/is-there-a-silver-shortage";>whether the market is facing a silver shortage when supply deficits begin to build.

There are two types of silver mining operations:

Primary silver mines
Byproduct production mining

Primary silver mines have a specific goal of mining for silver. In contrast, byproduct mines find silver ore in combination with other metals, such as:

Copper
Zinc
Lead

Now, although silver supply does affect the silver price, the relationship between them is different than for many other resources.

The fact that silver often comes as a byproduct of other metal mining operations has a lot to do with this. The majority of silver mining is a byproduct of other metals' mining operations.

For example, let's say that copper prices are weak, but silver prices spike. In a case like this, copper miners are not likely to drastically increase their production just to capture more silver. That's not the metal their business model centers on.

Another factor to note is that new mines take years to establish. Even when silver prices spike, exploration for silver can take years. They require massive investments, tons of permits, and environmental approvals. Some of these things can take years to acquire.

Industrial Demand

silver has high industrial usage for two main properties:

High conductivity
Anti-bacterial properties

Those two properties account for a lot of silver's use in industrial products. Its high conductivity makes it a crucial component in:

Solar panels
Electronics
EVs

Meanwhile, its antibacterial properties make it a highly necessary component in medical implements, such as:

Dental equipment
Stethoscopes

These industries create a constant need for silver, which helps with silver price volatility. Often, when production is low, industries recycle previously used silver for consumption.

Investment Demand

Finally, there is silver's demand as an investment metal. This factor often influences silver prices in response to factors in the economy, such as:

Inflation
Interest rates
Geopolitical events

These factors often boost the demand for silver. During times of economic instability, many people lose trust in fiat currency like the US dollar. They instead turn to precious metals, which tend to retain value and hedge against inflation.

There are two main ways to invest in silver:

Physical silver (coins and bars)
Paper silver (silver ETFs)

Before choosing between the two, investors should understand the difference between https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/silver-etf-vs-physical-silver";>silver ETFs and physical silver ownership and the risks that come with each approach.

Physical silver investment allows you to own a tangible silver commodity, which you can store and trade as you see fit. That is one reason many people prefer to https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver";>own physical silver directly rather than depend on a paper promise. Paper silver, in contrast, gives you exposure to the silver spot price through indirect means.

In this latter camp, there are two main forms of silver ETFs. The first are physical silver ETFs, in which you purchase a portion of another entity's silver inventory. The second are silver mining stocks, which leverage the silver spot price.

Inflation and the Purchasing Power of the Dollar

silver has historically responded to sharp inflation spikes, not due to particular individual factors, but because of a weakness in the dollar.

In the late 1970s, the https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0217";>US experienced double-digit inflation and a severe economic recession. At the same time, silver prices witnessed a dramatic surge. A similar pattern emerged after the 2008 financial crisis.

More recently, 2020-2021 saw a similar pattern when the federal government took aggressive stimulus measures to combat the economic shutdown.

In each of these cases, inflation accelerated; more importantly, the supply of money expanded rapidly. These combined factors made many investors question the long-term purchasing power of the dollar.

Period	Economic Environment	Starting Silver Price	Peak / Crisis Silver Price	Approximate Gain	Key Drivers
Late 1970s (1976–1980)	Double-digit inflation, oil shocks, weak dollar	~$4.00 (1976)	~$49.45 (Jan 1980)	#ERROR!	High CPI inflation, negative real rates, currency instability
2008 Financial Crisis (2008–2011)	Global recession, banking collapse, QE stimulus	~$9.00 (Oct 2008 low)	~$49.00 (Apr 2011)	#ERROR!	Quantitative easing, falling real rates, investor safe-haven demand
COVID-19 Economic Shutdown (2020–2021)	Massive fiscal stimulus, supply disruptions, rising inflation	~$12.00 (Mar 2020)	~$29.00 (Aug 2020)	#ERROR!	Money supply expansion, stimulus checks, liquidity surge

We should note here that the thing that really drives precious metals prices is not necessarily inflation. In reality, market sentiment has more to do with price fluctuations.

If that seems far-fetched, https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-price-index-2025-in-review.htm";>consider the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is the government's primary inflation gauge.

However, the CPI does not fully capture the economic picture. It does not measure:

Asset inflation
Housing distortions
Pressures felt by individual households for
- Food
- Energy
- Healthcare
- Insurance

In short, it's not necessarily the CPI print that investors respond to. They respond to whether the current monetary policy feels disciplined or loose.

silver tends to perform best when markets believe they are in a time of currency debasement. This phenomenon does not require reckless policy. Instead, all it takes is expanding the supply of money faster than the growth of goods and services.

Over time, such an occurrence erodes the purchasing power of the dollar.

That's where silver comes in. Unlike fiat currency, silver cannot be printed or digitally created. Its supply grows slowly, and it requires a real capital investment.

That scarcity gives silver a monetary character that draws investors in during periods of aggressive monetary expansion.

Precious metals react to liquidity cycles. When central banks lower rates, expand their balance sheets, and increase credit availability, real interest rates often fall. That reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.

At the same time, excess liquidity tends to flow into tangible stores of value. Conversely, when policymakers tighten aggressively and real rates rise meaningfully, silver often faces pressure.

The key takeaway here is that inflation alone does not drive silver higher or increase its volatility. That requires persistent monetary expansion and a declining confidence in purchasing power.

How Interest Rates Cause Silver Prices to Fluctuate

Interest rates are another factor that can drive silver prices. However, investors must focus on real interest rates, not just the nominal rates.

Nominal rates are the rates set by the Federal Reserve. Real rates subtract inflation from those nominal yields.

For example, let's say that Treasury bonds yield 5%, and inflation rates are currently at 3%. In this case, the real rate is 2%. That real return is what truly competes with silver.

Because silver does not generate dividends or returns like other investment assets, rising real rates tend to pressure prices. When investors can earn a return above inflation in cash or bonds, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals increases.

Historically, this trend has meant that silver gains headwinds when central banks push real rates meaningfully positive. That dynamic shifts when rate cuts begin.

When the Federal Reserve lowers rates, real yields often fall or turn negative. That reduces the relative appeal of bonds and increases interest in tangible stores of value.

silver frequently rallies during easing cycles, especially when investors believe policymakers are prioritizing growth or financial stability over inflation control.

Liquidity plays a parallel role in this cycle. Increased liquidity tends to support asset prices broadly, including precious metals. Conversely, quantitative tightening removes liquidity and can dampen momentum.

The key insight that investors should take from this is timing.

Silver rarely waits for official announcements. Markets often anticipate policy shifts well before the shifts actually occur. When investors sense real rates have peaked, or that liquidity conditions are about to ease, silver often moves higher before the Federal Reserve announces the first rate cuts.

The U.S. Dollar and Currency Strength

Similar to gold, silver often has an inverse relationship with the Dollar Index (DXY). While it's not always a one-to-one correlation, this inverse relationship typically means:

Strong dollar reduces silver prices
Weak dollar increases silver prices

The reason for this is relatively simple to break down. When the dollar has more purchasing power, it takes fewer dollars to purchase a troy ounce of silver. Conversely, when the dollar has less purchasing power, it takes more dollars to purchase silver.

This idea seems simple if you are an American investor. However, the silver market is a global phenomenon. So, how does the inverse relationship between the dollar and silver affect investors globally?

The answer is, it can have a significant impact. silver is priced internationally in U.S. Dollars (USD). When a foreign currency depreciates against the dollar, the cost of purchasing the same amount of silver increases in local terms. In short, local prices can change even if the dollar price remains the same.

Market Sentiment and Speculation

Something we've already touched on is that silver prices are not driven solely by fundamentals and mechanics; rather, it is also influenced by market psychology and speculative positioning.

Much of silver's day-to-day price discovery occurs in the futures market, particularly on the COMEX. Futures contracts allow traders to control large amounts of silver with relatively small amounts of capital.

This leverage amplifies price swings. When speculative positioning becomes crowded on one side of the trade, the next thing that typically comes is volatility.

Hedge funds and large institutional trades actively move in and out of silver based on macro signals, including:

Inflation expectations
Real yields
Dollar strength
Risk sentiment

Short squeezes are another feature of the silver market. Because futures trading allows for significant short exposure, rapid upside moves can force short sellers to cover positions quickly, driving sharp price spikes. These rallies are often fast and emotional, though sometimes short-lived.

Retail investor surges also play a role. During periods of financial stress or viral social media campaigns, retail demand for coins, bars, and ETFs can spike dramatically. That wave of buying can temporarily overwhelm available supply channels.

It's important to distinguish between paper silver and physical silver dynamics. Futures contracts and ETFs represent claims on silver, but they do not always reflect immediate physical delivery demand. At times, futures prices can fall even as physical premiums rise … or vice versa.

Understanding this split helps explain why silver can move violently even when underlying fundamentals appear unchanged.

Geopolitical Risk and Financial Crises

Silver prices often respond to critical geopolitical risks and financial crises. There are a few different versions of this that silver can respond to:

Banking instability
Wars and supply chain disruptions
Debt ceiling crises
Global sovereign debt concerns

One easy to see how silver prices can respond to geopolitical stressors is through wars and supply chain disruptions. We've already talked about the way that silver mining operations can be slow to respond to price needs. It is worth noting that many silver mining operations take place in different countries.

Because of this, geopolitical tensions can have several negative impacts on the silver mining industry. Sanctions, threats of violence, embargos, and other actions can prevent silver mining operations' already limited output from hitting the global market.

When that happens, it can cause significant volatility in the silver market.

Next, there is banking instability. Banking instability generally boosts silver prices, since the metal acts as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against currency devaluation when confidence in banks wanes. During financial crises, increased investor demand for physical, non-digital assets can lead to higher prices.

In extreme cases, investors might sell silver for cash, causing temporary dips.

Global sovereign debt concerns generally boost silver prices by fueling demand for it as a safe-haven asset and to hedge against currency debasement. Rising debt typically leads to inflation, which triggers concerns regarding financial security.

All of these factors combined make a perfect recipe for a surge in precious metals investment. The same principle holds for debt ceiling rises.

Silver vs. Gold: Why Silver Moves Faster

Silver prices move faster than gold for several reasons, including:

Smaller market size
High industrial demand
Increased volatility

Silver's smaller market size and high industrial demand lead to incredible liquidity. Because of that liquidity, silver transactions take place more frequently. This combination leads to silver having more volatility.

There are some additional things to know about silver and gold's relationship. First, the chief tool for measuring it is the gold-to-silver ratio. This ratio refers to the amount of silver ounces necessary to buy one ounce of gold.

Let's say the spot price of gold was $5,000, while silver had a spot price of $80. In this case, the gold-to-silver ratio would be roughly 63:1.

There have been cases of extreme gold-to-silver ratios in recent years, which you can see in this table.

Year	Gold Price	Silver Price	GSR
2011	1,571	35	~45:1
2020	1,500	12	~125:1
2025	4,300	70	~61:1

When the gold-to-silver ratio hits extremes, it eventually undergoes a reversion cycle. What that means is that it will move back toward the standard range, which most experts identify as being between 50:1 and 80:1.

The takeaway for investors is that this ratio is often an excellent tool for timing your silver investment. When the gold-to-silver ratio is between 50:1 and 80:1, https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-silver";>that often signals buyers to purchase silver.

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Trends

One quality of the silver market that excites many investors is its volatility. silver has a much more volatile market in the short-term, which allows investors to use it in speculation trading.

silver often has more short-term price swings than gold. However, the long-term silver trend has typically shown consistent retention of value against inflation.

Part of the reason for this is the industrial demand for silver. The consistent need for silver across several industrial spheres keeps its demand up, which in turn keeps its value consistent over time.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About What Causes Silver Prices to Fluctuate

Q: Why is silver more volatile than gold?

A: Silver is more volatile than gold because it has a smaller market size and heavier speculative participation in futures markets. It also has significant industrial demand, which makes it more sensitive to economic cycles.

Q: Does inflation always make silver go up?

A: No, inflation alone does not guarantee higher silver prices. silver tends to rise when inflation is paired with loose monetary policy and falling real interest rates.

Q: What role does the Federal Reserve play in silver prices?

A: The Federal Reserve influences silver through interest rate policy, money supply growth, and liquidity conditions. Changes in real interest rates and expectations of policy shifts often drive major silver price moves.

Q: How does industrial demand affect silver?

A: Industrial demand ties silver's price to global economic growth, especially in sectors like solar energy and electronics. When manufacturing expands, demands can support prices; during slowdowns, it can create headwinds.

What This Means for Silver Investors

Understanding what causes silver prices to fluctuate is crucial for investors. The key takeaways to note are that silver's supply structure makes it slower to respond to price spikes. Likewise, it is more vulnerable to sudden shortages than many other investment assets.

Once momentum builds, silver often has sharper rallies even than gold. This volatility makes it a useful precious metal asset for speculation trading, as well as a worthwhile long-term investment.

If you're uncertain whether it's a good time to invest in silver, keep an eye on the gold-to-silver ratio. That can help you time your investment and ensure you get silver at a good price.

One helpful thing about silver is that there are many ways to invest in it, ranging from one ounce coins to large bars to junk silver coins. Consider your financial goals, do some research, and decide which silver product can best move your portfolio forward!

Gold Growing on Trees?

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Who says gold doesn’t grow on trees?

OK, so it doesn’t. But there have been cases of gold discovered inside trees.

In Australia, researchers have found minute traces of gold in the leaves of eucalyptus trees.

Now, I don’t recommend heading to Australia and collecting leaves. It’s not a viable get-rich-quick scheme. We’re talking about very small levels of gold nanoparticles at around 80 parts per billion.

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Still, it’s a pretty cool story.

So, how did the gold get there?

Scientists believe trees growing above deep gold deposits tapped into the metal with their deep root systems. Eucalyptus roots have been known to reach as deep as 30 meters underground.

The process is called “biomineralization.” As an IFL Science article explained, “Microbes and oxidation help metal ions travel from the soil, up through stems, and into leaves.”

Melvyn Lintern was the lead author of the study. He said the eucalyptus tree essentially acts like a hydraulic pump.

“The plants, of course, are searching for water, not gold, but it just so happens that there’s gold dissolved in it.”

The fact that the gold ends up in the leaves may indicate the tree is trying to expel it (kind of like mainstream American investors). Scientists say the gold particles in the leaves were often found located near calcium oxalate crystals, theorized to be part of the removal pathway for toxic chemicals.

The scientists confirmed their finding through greenhouse experiments where eucalyptus saplings were grown in soil with similar levels of gold.

According to Smithsonian Magazine, “These separate streams of evidence, they say, show that the wild eucalyptus trees were indeed sucking up gold from deep underground.”

Subsequently, scientists in Finland have discovered https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/10/gold-literally-grows-in-trees-004399";>gold nanoparticles embedded in the needles of Norway spruce trees.

While nobody is going to mine gold from tree leaves, understanding the biomineralization process may help mining companies discover new gold deposits.

Lintern told the Smithsonian:

“In an age when most of the readily accessible gold near the planet’s surface has been mined, it makes sense to harness the natural mineral exploration plants are already engaging in when they drive their roots deep into the ground. Doing so might even reduce the number of exploratory mines we’re forced to drill—and consequently, lead to less environmental destruction of these plants’ habitats as a result of mining.”

In fact, a 2019 mineral exploration company used tree leaves to locate a 6-meter vein containing 3.4 grams of gold per ton in Australia.

It's pretty wild when you think about it. Nature has created a gold detection process unmatched by human technology! Just goes to show that sometimes, we would be well-served to pay closer attention to the world around us.

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounded in February

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Despite sales by Turkey and Russia, net central bank gold buying was positive in February, rebounding from a tepid January.

In total, central banks globally added a net 19 tonnes of gold to their reserves in February. That was up from just 5 tonnes in January.

Even so, it appears the higher price has put a drag on central bank gold buying. Last year, banks added an average of 26 tonnes per month. As the World Gold Council put it, “central banks may be prudently price sensitive in their accumulation.”

Despite rumors that it might tap into its gold reserves, Poland was the biggest buyer in February, expanding its reserves by another 20 tonnes. This lifted the country’s gold reserves to 570 tonnes, making up 31 percent of its total reserves.

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Poland led central bank gold buying in 2025, adding 102 tonnes of gold to its holdings.

Late last year, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/23/poland-announces-plans-for-another-expansion-in-gold-reserves-004631";>National Bank of Poland issued a statement saying it plans to purchase up to 150 more tonnes of gold, raising its holdings to a maximum of 700 tonnes.

NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said the increase in gold reserves would elevate Poland to an “elite” status.

“This will place Poland among the elite 10 countries with the largest gold reserves in the world.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/05/19/poland-has-more-gold-than-the-european-central-bank-004053";>The Polish central bank already holds more gold than the European Central Bank. To put the country's gold reserves in context, in 1996, the NBP only held 14 tonnes of gold.

Glapiński recently floated a plan to sell $13 billion in gold to finance defense spending. He said the bank would “generate profits and to then buy it back.” However, the Polish central bank has not released any additional details about the plan.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan added 8 tonnes of gold to its reserves in February. The Uzbek central bank has purchased 16 tonnes of gold so far this year, boosting reserves to 407 tonnes. The country holds most of its reserves in gold, with the yellow metal accounting for 88 percent of its total reserve assets.

The Bank of Malaysia made its first gold purchase since 2018 in January and piled in an additional 2 tonnes in February.

The Czech Republic continued adding gold to its holdings, increasing its reserves by another 2 tonnes. The Czech central bank has adopted the slow, steady approach, buying gold for 36 straight months. The country added 20 tonnes to its holdings last year. The Czech Republic now holds 76 tonnes of gold. Czech officials say they plan to increase gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2028.

The People’s Bank of China reported another 1-tonne increase in gold reserves in February, its 16^th consecutive monthly purchase. It's reported that gold reserves now stand at 2,308 tonnes, making up almost 10 percent of total official reserves.

Notice the emphasis on "official."

China is among the central banks that are likely to hold significantly more gold than they publicly disclose. As Jan Nieuwenhuijs has reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/02/chinas-gold-reserves-going-through-the-roof-003956";>data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank is currently sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing – more than TWICE what has been publicly admitted.

Mainstream reporting has https://financialpost.com/financial-times/chinas-secretive-gold-purchases-fuel-rally"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">finally picked up on this.

Cambodia was also a buyer in February, adding 1 tonne of gold to its stockpile.

Several African countries have turned to domestic gold-buying programs to boost their gold reserves. According to the World Gold Council, these countries view gold as a strategic diversification tool to boost reserves and manage risks to the economy in international financial markets.

Uganda announced a domestic gold-buying program two years ago, and purchases commenced this month. Officials say they plan to buy at least 100kg of gold between March and June this year from artisanal, medium, and large-scale domestic producers.

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Kenya's central bank Governor Kamau Thugge announced a similar plan at a news conference in early February.

Turkey was the biggest seller in February, unloading 8 tonnes of gold. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/27/turkey-sells-60-tonnes-of-gold-to-backstop-lira-004792";>selling accelerated this month, as the Turkish central bank reduced its gold holdings by nearly 60 tonnes.

The Central Bank of Turkey has been one of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/01/central-bank-gold-buying-moderated-in-25-but-remained-well-above-historical-levels-004653";>biggest central bank gold buyers over the last several years. It added to its gold reserves for 23 straight months through the end of October 2025. Now it is tapping into those reserves to support a struggling lira.

Central Bank of Turkey Governor Fatih Karahan noted that “a significant part of these transactions are in the nature of gold-currency swap futures. In other words, when it matures, the gold in question will return to our reserves.”

Russia reported a 6-tonne decline in its gold holdings. The country is tapping into its gold reserves to support the economy amidst aggressive economic sanctions as the Ukraine war drags on. The country’s gold holdings have dropped by more than 15 tonnes so far this year.

Looking at the broader trend, central bank gold buying moderated in 2025 but remained far above the recent historical average. Official net full-year buying came in at 863.3 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, charting the lowest level since 2021.

However, while central bank gold purchases declined last year, they were still well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record. The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

The surging gold price was likely a factor in slowing central bank gold accumulation. As the World Gold Council put it, the higher price prompted “a more cautious approach.”

“This highlights that central banks are not insensitive to price dynamics, even as their long-term strategic interest in gold remains firmly intact.”

Despite the modest slowdown in gold accumulation, the World Gold Council remains bullish, saying that “persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainty is likely to sustain demand for gold as a reserve asset.”

“We maintain our view that central banks will continue to add gold to their reserves. Our Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025 shows that respondents overwhelmingly (95 percent) expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while 43 percent believe that their own gold reserves will also increase over the same period. Notably, none of the respondents anticipate a decline in their gold reserves.”

You can read more details about that central bank survey https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/06/17/survey-indicates-central-banks-plan-to-keep-buying-gold-004131";>HERE.

Chinese Gold Demand: A Tale of Two Sectors

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Chinese gold market is a tale of two sectors.

The jewelry sector is struggling due to high prices, while gold investment has been red-hot.

According to Metals Focus, increasing safe-haven and wealth preservation demand have boosted gold investment. However, high prices and a reduced appetite for consumer spending have created headwinds for the jewelry sector.

High Prices Drag Down Chinese Gold Jewelry Market

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Metals Focus analysts say gold jewelry demand fell by 25 percent in 2025 and remained weak through the first two months of 2026.

In 2025, Chinese gold jewelry demand was 360 tonnes. That was less than half the 2023 jewelry demand of 630 tonnes.

Analysts say that sentiment among jewelry sellers and manufacturers was poor to start the year. Against this backdrop, retailers were cautious about stocking inventory leading up to the Chinese New Year holiday.

“These concerns proved justified, as in addition to high prices, competition from consumer spending on tourism and entertainment, lower disposable incomes, and a preference for lighter pieces all resulted in notably lower sales.”

Chinese Investors Want Gold!

In contrast, higher prices drove a boom in gold investment demand. Investors snapped up a record high of 432 tonnes of gold bars and coins in 2025, a 28 percent year-over-year increase. It was the first time physical investment demand outpaced gold jewelry demand.

Metals Focus analysts say Chinese investors aggressively bought price dips during last year’s bull run.

“Feedback suggests that corrections were often seen as opportunities by investors who had missed the previous upward movement, attracting fresh interest from non-traditional gold investors and providing a solid floor for prices.”

High net worth investors added more gold to their portfolios as a diversifier due to domestic and global economic uncertainty, coupled with unpredictable U.S. policy.

According to Metals Focus, changes in value-added tax (VAT) policy also gave investment gold demand a boost compared to jewelry.

“In late 2025, the jump in effective buy-sell spreads for gold jewelry, following the VAT policy change, made gold investment products far more attractive in comparison, and also supported gold retail investment in China. Gold investment products sold by SGE/SHFE members, who take delivery of physical gold for investment and subsequently resell it, benefit from at least a 6% VAT price advantage over gold jewelry and other non-investment products. This has intensified the ongoing shift from quasi-investment jewelry purchases to gold bar purchases, a trend that had already begun in 2024.”

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Even with the significant price correction in January, Chinese retail gold investment strengthened through the first two months of this year.

“This was evidenced by substantial inflows into GAPs (Gold Accumulation Plans) and rising sales of gold bars, leading to a temporary shortage of certain sizes at bank branches and retail stores before the Chinese New Year.”

Chinese investors have typically preferred physical metal, but there has been a surge in gold ETF investing over the last two years. According to Metals Focus data, Chinese gold-backed funds added 46 tonnes of metal through the first two months of 2026.

A gold ETF is backed by a trust company that holds metal owned and stored by the trust. In most cases, investing in an ETF does not entitle you to any amount of physical gold. You own a share of the ETF, not gold itself. ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/08/paper-gold-vs-real-gold-its-important-to-know-the-difference-003038";>owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

According to Metals Focus, Chinese regulators took steps in late January to prevent overheating and shield retail investors from potential losses due to elevated price volatility.

“Commercial banks revised their GAP policies, including increases in minimum subscription amounts and stricter eligibility criteria. The SGE and SHFE raised margin requirements for gold futures and spot deferred contracts multiple times to cool any market fever driven by speculative activity.”

Metals Focus analysts say they remain bullish on Chinese gold investment this year and project a 7 percent increase in demand.

“Persistent safe-haven demand, continued investor confidence in gold, and a projected medium-term rise in gold prices should all support demand.”

Uncle Sam’s Balance Sheet Looks Like Bankruptcy

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey opens with a stark thought experiment. He asks listeners whether they would lend money to a head of household earning $52,446 a year, spending $73,378, running a $20,932 annual deficit, and sitting on $1,361,788 in liabilities and unfunded promises against just $60,554 in assets.

He then reveals that these figures are not about a household at all. They are the 2025 consolidated U.S. government financial statements, divided by 100 million to make them comparable to a family budget.

Maharrey says the comparison makes the federal government’s fiscal condition impossible to miss. In his telling, Uncle Sam is financially broken, and the only reason many people fail to see it is that the numbers are usually presented on such an enormous scale that they lose emotional impact.

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The U.S. Government Is Insolvent by the Numbers

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Maharrey argues that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/26/the-us-government-is-insolvent-yes-that-matters-004791";>the United States government is insolvent based on a plain reading of the Treasury Department’s fiscal year 2025 consolidated financial statements. He says the federal government ended the year with $6.06 trillion in total assets and $47.78 trillion in total liabilities.

That leaves the government with $7.90 in liabilities for every $1 in assets. Maharrey says that if the U.S. government were a private business, it would already be in bankruptcy court.

He notes that Forbes was one of the few mainstream outlets to meaningfully cover the report. According to Maharrey’s recap of the coverage, the government’s financial position deteriorated by $2.07 trillion in fiscal 2025, pushing the federal balance sheet to a negative $41.72 trillion.

He points to a $2 trillion increase in the national debt, interest expense payable of $30.33 trillion, and $438.8 billion in federal employee and veteran benefits payable as major drivers of the deterioration. He also stresses that these figures do not even include the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare.

Why the Debt Crisis Keeps Getting Ignored

Maharrey pushes back against the claim that America’s fiscal reckoning is becoming impossible to ignore. His view is that it remains very easy for Washington, the financial media, and much of the public to ignore it.

He says the Treasury released this alarming data “to the sound of crickets.” Aside from a few predictable critics such as Senator Rand Paul and Representative Thomas Massie, he argues that few in Congress seriously engage with the issue.

Maharrey also rejects the idea that because warnings about the debt have circulated for decades without immediate collapse, the danger must be overstated. He recalls the balanced-budget politics of the 1990s, during the Newt Gingrich era and the Contract with America, when the national debt ranged between $4.5 trillion and $5 trillion.

Today, he says, the debt stands at $39 trillion and is on track to hit $40 trillion before the end of the year. In his view, that historical comparison shows that the problem has not stabilized. It has exploded.

Revenues Are Up, but Spending Keeps Rising

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Maharrey argues that the core problem is not insufficient tax revenue. It is runaway spending.

He dismisses the idea that taxing the rich could solve the crisis, saying that even confiscating all billionaire wealth in the United States would only fund the federal government for about six weeks. He also notes that federal revenues have risen, boosted in part by tariffs, and says revenues are up by roughly 10% so far in fiscal 2026.

But that has not changed the trajectory. Through the first five months of fiscal 2026, Uncle Sam spent $3.1 trillion, a 2% increase over the same period in fiscal 2025.

Maharrey acknowledges that there have been some spending cuts, including reductions at the EPA and Department of Education, and that lower disaster spending helped moderate the numbers. But he says the larger trend remains unmistakable.

The federal government spent just over $7 trillion last year. That works out to an average of $583.3 billion per month and $19.2 billion per day. He adds that the outbreak of war is likely to push spending even higher, with some estimates running into the $200 billion range.

The Household Analogy Has Limits, but the Problem Is Real

Maharrey addresses the common objection that a government cannot be compared to a household because the United States can borrow endlessly, print money, and issue the world’s reserve currency.

He concedes that the analogy is imperfect. A sovereign government is different from a family or a private company.

But he says critics often use that distinction not to add nuance, but to wave away a real and growing danger. In his view, a government carrying nearly $40 trillion in debt is facing a serious problem, whether or not it has unique monetary powers.

He also argues that the debt is already harming the economy. Citing research suggesting that debt above 90% of GDP begins to drag on growth, he points out that the U.S. is now around 120% of GDP and climbing. He concludes that the economy would be larger and Americans would be wealthier if the government were not absorbing so many resources through borrowing and spending.

Why Maharrey Thinks the Fed Will Cut Rates

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One of Maharrey’s key arguments is that the debt burden is shaping monetary policy in ways many analysts ignore.

He says the mainstream narrative holds that war-driven oil prices and higher CPI should keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, with higher rates for longer. In that framework, gold is supposed to suffer.

Maharrey disagrees. He says the “debt black hole” makes it impossible for a debt-ridden bubble economy to function in even a normal rate environment for very long.

If the economy weakens materially, he believes the Fed will choose rescue over inflation-fighting, just as it did in 2008, during the pandemic, and even after the 2018 stock market correction. In each case, he argues, policymakers responded with easier money.

He also says the U.S. is already engaged in monetary expansion. He points listeners to his recent article on https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/30/whats-the-real-inflation-rate-004797";>the “real inflation rate” and money supply, arguing that quantitative easing and lower rates remain inherently inflationary because they expand money and credit.

Interest Expense Has Become a Monster

Maharrey highlights interest in the national debt as one of the clearest signs that the system is reaching dangerous territory.

Interest expense cost the federal government $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025. That was up 7.3% from 2024.

He says interest is now the second-largest federal spending category, trailing only Social Security. According to Maharrey, the government now spends more on interest payments than it does on national defense or Medicare.

That, he argues, is one reason the Fed will eventually be pressured to cut rates even if inflation remains elevated. If rates stay too high for too long, he believes debt service costs will squeeze the economy even harder.

De-dollarization and Weak Treasury Demand Add Another Layer of Risk

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Maharrey then turns to the question of who will keep funding the U.S. government’s deficits.

He says around 40% of the national debt is held by foreigners, which means Washington depends heavily on overseas appetite for Treasury securities. In his view, America’s fiscal irresponsibility is one factor driving De-dollarization and what he calls the “debasement trade.”

He points to declining Treasury demand and rising yields as warning signs. In past crises, investors often fled to Treasuries as a safe haven. Maharrey says that logic is breaking down because lending to a government that is nearly $40 trillion in debt no longer looks obviously safe.

He also rejects the claim that the debt does not matter because “we owe it to ourselves.” Yes, many Americans and U.S. institutions hold Treasuries, he says, but that does not erase the burden. In his view, the government is not the same thing as the people, and saying otherwise only masks the problem.

Maharrey’s Critique of Modern Monetary Theory

Maharrey takes aim at Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, which he characterizes as a sophisticated justification for endless money creation.

Drawing on his accounting background, he says MMT relies on accounting tautologies and presentation tricks that can make financial statements look healthier than they really are. He argues that the theory sounds plausible in part because it dresses up inflationary money creation in technical language.

But the practical reality, in his telling, is simpler. Yes, the government can print money. No, that does not mean there is no cost.

The cost is currency debasement. And that cost, Maharrey says, falls on ordinary people whose dollars lose purchasing power over time.

Inflation, Reserve Currency Status, and the Fragility of the Dollar

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Maharrey emphasizes that inflation should be understood not merely as higher prices, but as an increase in the supply of money and credit.

From that perspective, he says rate cuts and quantitative easing are inflationary by definition. They create more money, encourage more borrowing, and gradually undermine the dollar.

He argues that America has been able to sustain this system in part because the world still wants dollars. The petrodollar system, global trade flows, and foreign reserve demand have all helped prop it up.

But he warns that the dollar does not need to lose reserve currency status outright for the U.S. to face severe consequences. Even modest De-dollarization could send excess dollars back into the domestic economy, creating a dollar glut and intensifying inflationary pressure.

Worst case, he says, any fiat currency can ultimately collapse. He stops short of predicting imminent hyperinflation, but insists that such an outcome is not impossible for the United States.

Save in Real Money, Not in a Failing Currency

Maharrey closes the fiscal section with a familiar Money Metals message. The solution, in his view, is to save in real money.

He says the dollar is being systematically debased and that even a 2% annual erosion in purchasing power is part of the plan. Over time, that becomes a serious hit to savers.

That is why he again urges listeners to own gold and silver. Whether the dollar fails suddenly or declines through “a million little disinvestments,” Maharrey says the long-term direction is clear.

Silver Special and the Bullish Case for the Metal

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As part of the show’s product spotlight, Maharrey highlights random 1-ounce government-minted silver coins available through Money Metals.

He says the coins are either .999 or .9999 fine silver and were being offered for https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-silver-coin-random-design/501";>as low as $4.99 over spot per ounce, or $5.99 over spot for orders under 10 ounces.

Maharrey also makes a bullish case for silver’s upside. He says silver has recently traded in the high $60s to low $70s and notes that it has previously reached as high as $120.

His fundamental argument is that the silver market remains tight. He points to consecutive years of deficits in which mine supply has failed to meet demand, and says that dynamic has not changed. In his view, there is still significant upside potential for both silver and gold, especially after the current war-related volatility passes.

How Much Gold Exists in the World

In the second major topic of the episode, Maharrey explores global gold supply and scarcity.

He cites Metals Focus estimates showing that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/31/just-how-much-gold-is-there-004800";>219,890 tons of gold currently exist above ground. Because gold is rarely destroyed, that figure effectively represents almost all the gold mined throughout human history.

He says that may sound like a lot, but the physical reality is surprisingly modest. Melted into a single cube, all of the world’s gold would measure just 22 meters, or about 73 feet, on each side.

He offers another visual comparison: all the gold ever mined would fit into roughly four and a half Olympic-sized swimming pools.

Gold Reserves, Mine Output, and Recycling

Maharrey says Metals Focus estimates there are 54,770 tons of economically mineable gold reserves underground. The U.S. Geological Survey offers a somewhat higher estimate of 64,000 tons.

In addition, Metals Focus estimates another 77,340 tons of known gold deposits exist that are not currently economical to extract.

He notes that the World Gold Council has observed that below-ground reserve estimates have remained relatively stable for decades, even as gold continues to be mined. In practice, that suggests new discoveries have broadly kept pace with depletion.

Global mine output set a record last year at 3,672 tons, up 1% from the prior year. Maharrey says gold production has generally ranged between just above 2,500 tons and 3,500 tons annually, with output declining from 2001 to 2008, rebounding in 2009, and largely plateauing over the last decade.

He then places that production in demand context. Gold demand set a record of just over 5,000 tons in 2025.

Mining was not the only source of supply. Recycling added another 1,144.3 tons in 2025, bringing the total supply to just over 5,000 tons and effectively balancing the market.

Peak Gold Is Possible, but Not Imminent

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Maharrey discusses the idea of “peak gold,” the point at which mine production would hit a maximum and then begin to decline year after year.

He says the theory makes intuitive sense because as easier deposits are depleted, remaining gold is harder and more expensive to extract. Still, he cautions against overly dramatic claims.

Some analysts say there are only 15 years of reserves left at the current production rate. Maharrey says that is technically true in a narrow sense, but misleading because it does not account for continued discoveries or future technological advances that can turn currently uneconomic deposits into viable mines.

His bottom line is that gold supply is relatively stable for now and is meeting demand. While easily mined gold is becoming scarcer, he says new exploration methods, better geological modeling, deeper underground mining, and higher prices can all extend the usable supply base.

Why Gold’s Scarcity Still Matters

Maharrey says the long-term outlook from the World Gold Council is not for a sudden collapse in production, but for a plateau shaped by difficult project economics, permitting delays, geopolitical instability, rising capital costs, and financing challenges in remote regions.

That means https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/28/gold-pullback-sparks-debate-as-war-narrative-dominates-markets-004795";>gold is not likely to become abundant. Even if total supply does not shrink dramatically anytime soon, it is unlikely to surge.

And that matters because demand could rise sharply. Maharrey notes that more mainstream investors are beginning to take precious metals more seriously. He references a Morgan Stanley CIO suggestion that investors consider moving away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio and toward a 60/20/20 mix with 20% in precious metals.

He says that if investors begin taking even a small version of that idea seriously, demand could rise substantially. Right now, many portfolios have no precious metals exposure at all, and even 1% to 2% is considered high by many conventional standards.

A meaningful shift in allocation, he argues, would place major upward pressure on a market where supply cannot quickly respond.

Final Takeaway

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Maharrey’s central message in this episode is straightforward. America’s fiscal condition is deteriorating rapidly, the debt burden is already distorting monetary policy and economic performance, and the long-term answer is not more financial engineering or more faith in fiat money.

He argues that the numbers from the 2025 Treasury statements are ugly, the political class remains unserious, and the world’s willingness to finance U.S. deficits cannot be taken for granted forever.

Against that backdrop, he presents gold and silver as real money, scarce assets, and long-term protection against a dollar that is steadily losing value. He closes by telling listeners that with gold still below $5,000 an ounce and silver fundamentals still tight, this remains a buying opportunity.

Conclusion

This Money Metals Midweek Memo episode blends fiscal alarm, monetary criticism, and a supply-side look at precious metals into one consistent thesis. Maharrey says the U.S. government’s balance sheet would be catastrophic by any ordinary standard, and he believes the system is being held together only by continued borrowing, money creation, and public complacency.

At the same time, he reminds listeners that gold remains genuinely scarce. Only 219,890 tons exist above ground, annual mine output was 3,672 tons last year, and total 2025 gold demand topped 5,000 tons. Silver, meanwhile, continues to face structural deficits.

For Maharrey, those facts point in one direction. As debt rises, rates become politically constrained, and the dollar continues to be debased, gold and silver remain essential tools for https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/31/hsbc-gold-is-behaving-like-a-risk-asset-but-bullish-case-remains-004801";>preserving purchasing power over the long run.