Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Gold & Silver Plunge as the Fed's Inflation Trap Tightens

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up don’t miss a tremendous interview with first-time guest Steve Penny of https://silverchartist.com/";>SilverChartist.com. Steve shares his interesting story and tells us about how his experiences as an Air Force rescue pilot and how the events of 9/11 ultimately laid the ground work for him to go down a self-education path that ultimately brought him into the world of silver and sound money.

Aside from his fascinating personal story, Steve gives us fantastic analysis of where we are in the metals right now given the recent weakness in the sector. He also shares his price targets that he’s looking for down the road for gold and silver and if and when we may get what he calls a “1979 moment” – referring to the blowoff top in the silver market at the end of the 1970s bull market that led to spectacular price moves in the white metal.

So, stick around for an enlightening conversation with Steve Penny about that and a whole lot more, coming this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content. That would be a big help to us, and we would be highly appreciative.

Gold and silver investors are taking a major beating this week, yet again, as both metals extend a painful losing streak that has now totally wiped out all of their spectacular gains from earlier this year.

Gold has fallen below the psychologically important $4,000 level, while silver has been probing below $50 an ounce. The bears remain firmly in control, with little indication the selling spree has yet run its course.

So, is the great precious metals bull market coming to an end? Or are investors witnessing another brutal correction within a much larger upward trend?

We'll examine both possibilities, along with the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate decision and what the widening gold-to-silver ratio might be telling us.

But first, let's look at the markets.

Gold was in positive territory for the week through Wednesday but then fell about 1% in yesterday’s trading and is off a good bit more than that today and has now fallen below $4,000 with today’s further selloff. The yellow metal currently comes in at $3,909 an ounce, down 2.4% for the week and registering a 4-month low.

Silver meanwhile is once again faring even worse, trading at $49.80 as it appears on the verge of outright surrendering the $50 level that had served as major resistance for decades before last year's historic breakout. For the week the white metal is off nearly $5 or 8.7%. It has now fallen nearly $12 in the last three weeks. Holy smokes.

The technical picture for both metals is decidedly bearish. Gold has broken below several important price levels. On the upside, gold would need to regain approximately $4,065 to show signs of stabilization. Silver, meanwhile, continues making lower highs and lower lows; holding this $50 level is very important. We’ll see if it can do that.

The immediate problem is the Federal Reserve.

At its meeting this week, the Fed voted to leave interest rates unchanged, holding its benchmark rate between 3.75% and 4%. Two officials wanted another quarter-point hike, but the majority decided to wait for more information.

With inflation remaining stubbornly elevated, traders are now assigning roughly a 75% probability of another rate hike in December.

The latest inflation numbers aren't encouraging. Consumer prices accelerated in September, with rising gasoline prices and broader increases in goods and services putting additional pressure on household budgets.

Meanwhile, oil prices surged about 4% Thursday following renewed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about further disruptions to global energy supplies. And the latest unemployment claims report showed a surprisingly strong labor market, giving the Fed less reason to worry about an economic slowdown.

All of this reinforces expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. That's bad news for gold and silver in the short term because higher interest rates make interest-paying investments more attractive.

But there's something rather absurd about the situation.

Gold is being sold because inflation is getting worse and the Fed might raise interest rates to fight it. Think about that. Investors are dumping an asset historically used to protect purchasing power because the very thing it protects against is becoming more entrenched.

Of course, markets don't always behave rationally over short periods. And the Fed itself is caught in a trap.

As our own Mike Maharrey pointed out in an article this week, the central bank needs higher rates to contain inflation, but lower rates to keep America's enormous debt burden manageable.

With the national debt approaching $40 trillion, Washington can hardly afford indefinitely elevated borrowing costs. The Fed can try to fight inflation, or it can help keep the government's debt machine running smoothly. Doing both at the same time is becoming increasingly difficult.

And speaking of the Fed, Chairman Kevin Warsh announced an interesting change this week. Beginning next year, the central bank will devote some of its regular meetings exclusively to longer-term strategy rather than interest-rate decisions.

By 2028, the Fed plans to hold just six rate-setting meetings annually, with two others dedicated to strategic discussions.

Perhaps giving the central bankers more time to think will improve their decisions. But changing the meeting schedule isn't going to fix the underlying monetary problems.

Now, let's turn to silver, where another important development is attracting attention.

The gold-to-silver ratio is expanding again. For listeners unfamiliar with this measure, the ratio simply tells us how many ounces of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold.

When the ratio rises, silver is becoming cheaper relative to gold. And that's exactly what's happening now.

The ratio had fallen to around 46-to-1 when silver reached its January peak above $120 an ounce. But as silver prices collapsed, the ratio began climbing again. It has now reached approximately 78-to-1.

In other words, silver has been losing ground against gold, even as gold itself has been declining.

Historically, periods of extreme silver underperformance have sometimes preceded powerful rallies. During the market panic in 2020, for example, the ratio briefly surged above 120-to-1. Silver then rallied more than 150% over the following several months.

That doesn't mean history will repeat itself. But it illustrates how dramatically the relationship between gold and silver can reverse.

There are legitimate reasons silver is struggling more than gold right now. Central banks continue buying gold, while silver doesn't enjoy that same level of official-sector demand. Silver also has a substantial industrial component, making it more vulnerable to concerns about economic growth.

And there has been a significant improvement in physical silver availability.

After the shortages and delivery squeezes that helped propel prices higher last year, inventories in London vaults have recovered substantially. According to Metals Focus, London silver holdings reached a four-year high of approximately 932 million ounces at the end of September.

Meanwhile, investors have been pulling money out of silver exchange-traded products, releasing metal back into the market. Retail investment demand has also weakened sharply following the speculative frenzy earlier this year.

So, the immediate physical market isn't nearly as tight as it was during silver's dramatic run-up. Metals Focus even believes silver could remain under pressure in the months ahead, with the possibility that the market's supply deficit could give way to a surplus in 2027.

That's not particularly encouraging for investors hoping for an immediate rebound. But there's another side to this story.

Silver has experienced five consecutive years of structural supply deficits. Over that period, demand exceeded available mine and recycling supply by more than 700 million ounces.

And while higher prices are encouraging conservation and substitution in some industrial applications, silver remains essential to a wide range of technologies.

The bigger question is what happens when investment demand returns. Silver is a relatively small market, and when investors begin moving significant amounts of capital into it, prices can rise very quickly.

Metals Focus itself acknowledges that silver could begin outperforming gold again once markets start anticipating an end to aggressive monetary tightening.

Neither gold nor silver has established a convincing bottom. But the fundamental monetary problems that helped drive these metals to record highs haven't disappeared. Washington continues spending money it doesn't have. The federal debt continues climbing. And the purchasing power of Federal Reserve notes continues eroding.

The Fed may have hit the pause button this week, but the government's borrowing and spending machine certainly hasn't.

Gold and silver can suffer brutal corrections. They always have. But the politicians and central bankers responsible for our monetary system have given us precious little reason to believe that fiat currencies are about to become more trustworthy.

And that's why the case for owning physical precious metals remains compelling, even during weeks like this one.

Well now, without further delay, and for much more on the state of the markets, monetary policy, geopolitics and the metals, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings! I'm Mike Meharry and I'm joined today by Steven Penny. Steve is the founder of SilverChartist.com, which features a pretty unique investing strategy that I'm going to let him tell you about. So how you doing today, Steve? Thanks for joining me.

Steve Penny: Yeah, thanks Mike. I'm doing awesome. Look forward to a good discussion. I've been following Money Metals for a long time and big fans of you guys and thanks for having me on.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Well, it's a pleasure. I'm excited to talk to you about what you're doing because you kind of do have a unique approach, which is cool. As I was thinking about how I wanted to start this off, I had two questions that I wanted to ask first, and obviously you can't ask two questions at the same time, but you can. So that's what I'm going to do. I'm actually going to tie these two questions together and let you weave them. And basically it's just first off, just give us a little bit of a glimpse of your background and then you can kind of work that into what you're doing over at Silver Chartist and talk about your approach. I figured those two things probably link together, so I'll just let you go with that.

Steve Penny: They do. Yeah, I love that question. And it's been a while since I've been asked that, so I got to think I don't have a canned answer. But yeah, just going back to, I guess my wake-up call was nine eleven. I was still in college at the time. I'm 45 years old now. And that was when I really started to learn, I guess, how the world really works, not necessarily what you're taught in school, but how the world actually works, central banking, debt-based fiat currency, geopolitics, what all these foreign conflicts are really about because it's never about what they say. And that's what really ignited my curiosity. Fast-forward to the 2007, 2008 financial crisis, that got me interested in learning a lot more about the financial markets. I'd already piqued my interest in central banks and debt-based fiat currency, but that financial crisis really accelerated my learning curve.

I mean, I was reading a book a week and I like to say self-education has the highest return on investment. I went to college, but the most valuable lessons I've learned have been self-taught. You can go read 10 good books, 10 great books on a given topic, and you know more than most people who went to college on that topic. So I was an Air Force pilot. I served 18 years. I was a rescue pilot. That doesn't mean I'm for all these conflicts that we're involved in, but I was a rescue pilot and I left after 18 years. And that's a hard thing to do because anyone who knows about the military knows you get that 20 years, you get a pension. But I like to say everyone has a sweet spot calling where your passions and your abilities intersect and life is short. And yeah, I could have stayed that extra two years, but I had launched Silver Chartist.

It was getting traction, and that's my sweet spot. That's where my passions, my abilities intersect. So, I did it. I left the Air Force, went guns blazing into Silver Chartist and God's blessed it. It's done really well. We've got an awesome community over there and we do have a unique approach. As your listeners know, this is the biggest global debt binge in all of history and I believe we're not going to get politicians to solve the problems. We have very little control over that, but what we do have control over is what we do with our own lives. And one of the key steps towards guarding against all the things that are happening in the world is having some physical metal stored outside of the banking system. So I think that's a good foundation. But for those who are really interested and have a little bit more time to put into it and are interested in the financial markets, you can actually amplify your returns over time through the use of mining stocks.

And I like to generate income by selling options. So that's what we do at Silver Chartis, and hopefully that kind of wove together in somewhat of a coherent answer.

Mike Maharrey: No, that's fantastic. And you hit on a couple of important points that aren't even necessarily really investing oriented, but just really resonate with me. One of those things is that self-education. I think you get a better education when you take the time to create your own curriculum, so to speak, because you're kind of spoon-fed a conventional wisdom. Let's just leave it at that when you're in school. And so you can pick up these books and you can learn so much. I became a constitutional expert. I kind of shiver at that because it's weird because in my head I'm not really an expert, but I've written two books. But simply by reading original documents and studying, it's amazing in this world we live in how much access to knowledge that we have and conversely how dumb some people have become. So why gold and silver? Your strategy seems to really focus in on precious metals.

Why did you pick precious metals as your area of focus?

Steve Penny: Yeah, so I am drawn to them because I think they represent honesty and they're honest weights and measures, but when I trade and invest, I got to take off my philosophical draws to things. So yes, I believe in silver and gold as an honest weight unit of account and honest money. So I love what the Gleasons are doing with the Sound Money Defense League and all that. That is awesome. But when I'm a trader and speculator, I look for asymmetric setups where risk reward is favorable. And whether that's gold or silver or something else, my goal is financial freedom. It just so happens that I believe silver and hard assets, silver, gold, platinum and uranium really present the most favorable risk reward setups right now over the next handful of years. With this kind of fundamental backdrop where I think we're headed into persistent inflation higher than forecast inflation, hard assets are the prime beneficiaries in this exact environment.

And you can go back millennia, silver and gold always do a full accounting for the expansion of debt-based fiat currency. They just always do 100% of the time. So, I'm not investing in silver and gold because I believe in them philosophically. I'm investing in them because I think they have the highest upside potential over the next few years.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that's a really good point. I'm curious because you're hitting on a very difficult psychological thing for a lot of people. I mean, I struggle with it. We have these philosophical ideas and we believe that certain things should be certain ways, and yet oftentimes the markets don't read things the same way. I'll give you an example from my perspective, the Federal Reserve. Everybody's convinced that the Fed is on this long-term hiking cycle. I'm convinced that they're not because of the levels of debt as you've already kind of alluded to. That being said, the reality in the markets right now is that there's a lot of headwinds for precious metals. So, how do you separate out that philosophical worldview and your psychological leanings and just focus purely on the metrics of what's going on in the market, even if you think that the market is doing stupid things right now?

Steve Penny: Yeah, there's a couple of ways to do it and it's psychologically and emotionally difficult for me too. For example, and I don't say this to be prideful or anything, but we took major profits within a few days of that peak. I sent an alert out to members at $117 and every bit of my emotions and my psychology did not want to push that sell button because I know silver should be even going much higher over the long term. So I guess a couple of ways that I handle that and mitigate that psychological hurdle is by having buckets. So I've got my long-term physical metal. I don't plan to ever touch that. That's a generational insurance policy against these out of control central planners. And then I've got a longer term investing bucket with some top tier mining stocks. So psychologically, I've got a plan for that bucket of investments where I'm going to hold through the volatility and I've got a separate bucket over here where I've given myself permission in advance when things get overheated to the upside, hey, it's okay to push the sell button in that one, even though I think it's going much higher, even though my philosophy and philosophically, I think silver should go much higher, it's okay to push the sell button.

So, by compartmentalizing my investing into different buckets and then just having an array of different indicators, I look at sentiment, I look at the commitment of traders report, I look at technicals and short-term fundamental headwinds to give short-term sell signals so we can use that volatility to our advantage.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So basically what I'm hearing is have a plan and work the plan.

Steve Penny: That's it. Yeah. I should have just said that.

Mike Maharrey: Well, no, no, I like the way you said it better. I'm just summarizing. But it is hard. You get on X and you see this headline and it's like, oh, panic. We're in a 30-second news cycle. It may even be 15 seconds at this point. It's pretty absurd, so it's difficult to do that, but you seem to have a really good system in place and that's a good thing. So let's talk a little bit about the markets right now. Let's start with silver. I was perusing some of the interviews and stuff that you've done over the last couple of months. And earlier this year, I think it was back in the summer, you said that silver's 1979 moment is still to come. What do you mean by that? What is the 1979 moment and why are you still bullish despite the fact that people will tell you silver has lost nearly or more than half its value this year?

Steve Penny: Yeah, because we've seen this movie before. I was born in 1981, so I didn't live through the 70s bull market, but I've studied it closely and a lot of people focus on what I call the 1979 moment. And a lot of people don't know that that decade for five years in between, silver just went sideways between four and $6. And I think that's the churn we're in now. And by the way, I think the 1970s has a lot of similarities to the current bull market. So in the 27 months leading up to 1974 where silver had an interim peak, it had gone up 420 something percent in 27 months leading up to February of 1974. So in the 27 months leading up to this January, silver had a very similar move. It went up 480% in the previous 27 months. So you can almost overlay that same couple year period to what we just saw leading up to 1974 peak.

So, I think right now we're in that moment where it's been said silver will either scare you out or wear you out. Well, I think it'll do both. It's scaring us out now. Now I think it's going to wear us out a little bit longer than people think, but to take heart, our 1979 moment awaits. And in 1979, silver went up 8X in 12 short months, 8X move. And there's some differences too between the 1970s. They had a Paul Volker come in and raise interest rates up to 16, 17%. Can't do that with a $40 trillion national debt. We collect five trillion in federal tax receipts thereabouts every year. So every 1% rise in interest rates on a $40 trillion national debt is 400 billion extra in interest expense. So you just can't do it. The math doesn't math. They can't raise interest rates like they did in the 1970s.

So, it's different too. So I think this is going to be an amplified replay of the 1970s without a Paul Volker coming in. Instead, I think it's going to be some draconian new financial system they try and introduce, and who knows what that's going to look like, but I think it'll probably involve less freedom, less sound money, and they're going to try that first before.

Mike Maharrey: I suspect that you're right. You make a really good point. There's no way that you could ever see... I don't think it would take 20% interest rates in today's market, but certainly more than 5%. I've been saying ever since the Fed started hiking that they wouldn't and they haven't done what is necessary to really wring inflation out of the system, which is evidenced by the fact we're at what, 67 straight months above the mythical 2% target. So I tell people all the time that inflation is the plan. They'll tell you that, oh, we're going to fight inflation. We're going to get inflation under control. Inflation under control just means that they're going to continue to devalue your money at 2% every year.

Steve Penny: Exactly.

Mike Maharrey: You have to plan for that. So what are some of the things that give you this bullish sentiment that we may still have some leg left in the silver bull market? Because a lot of people I'm hearing are say, oh, it's over, we're done. We're going to go back below 50 and then that's it. What makes you feel bullish right now?

Steve Penny: Sure. There's a lot of factors, but going big to small, like you said, inflation is the plan. That actually benefits these central planners. They don't want deflation. You can't tax deflation. When there's deflation, they get the blame, but the people don't understand inflation. Inflation erodes away debt and it benefits debtors. Well, who's the biggest debtor in the world? It's the US government, so inflation erodes away the real value of that debt. But this is the biggest global debt engine all of history. So big picture, we have a $40 trillion national debt and we're on a trajectory where interest will eventually consume 100% of tax receipts. And obviously the variable in that equation is interest rates. So that's the trajectory we're on. And I like to say problems have solutions, predicaments have managed outcomes. There's not really a solution to this problem, this debt problem. There's only unpleasant managed outcomes and silver and gold going back through all of history are the prime beneficiary of this exact environment.

This is the biggest global debt engine we've ever seen. So that's the big fundamental backdrop. So any kind of short-term headwinds about them raising interest rates for a few quarters is just noise. I mean, it may delay it a little bit, but it doesn't change the fundamental drivers. So, we're headed to that point and there's no way that this is over. This cycle is not over and it's not going to be over until this debt situation is resolved either through default or massive devaluation of the currency. One of those two things has to happen and we know they're not going to choose to default because then they get the blame.

Mike Maharrey: It'll be anything that they can project the blame onto something else, that's for sure.

Steve Penny: Yeah.

Mike Maharrey: Maybe they'll luck out and have another pandemic or something because I'm convinced that the pandemic kind of bailed the Fed out after all of the fiscal malfeasance during the Great Recession. But it's interesting because the silver market and the gold market are obviously closely linked. And so looking at gold, are you surprised that it's held $4,000 despite the headwinds of much higher yields and all of the issues that have been caused by the war with Iran?

Steve Penny: No, I wouldn't say I'm surprised. Every week I kind of update my admittedly subjective probabilities that 3,900 is going to hold. And it's a lower probability now, but I have given it like a 75, 80% chance that that $3,900 level holds from a technical perspective. It's a little bit less now, but I do still think it's more than fifty-fifty chance that 3,900 holds. But if it gives away, I wouldn't be surprised to see a brief dip down of 3,500. That's a possibility that shorter term traders should plan for. But no, I'm not terribly surprised. I mean, we had just gotten so far technically stretched that this kind of pullback is really not surprising.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's interesting too. I've kind of noticed it anecdotally just watching the tickers. And one of the things that I've noticed, and this has been going on for months, if you watch the markets when the US opens, so 8:30 or 9, around that time, you almost always see this little dip. The Western traders come in with their sales. If you go to the end of the day, when the Asian markets are opening, you almost always see this little uptick. And just today I wrote an article and going off some reporting by Bloomberg that Chinese households and investors are really supporting this market right now. They're coming in and they're buying those dips on virtually a daily basis. Have you noticed that and what's your thinking about this kind of almost a shift of gold from the West to the East?

Steve Penny: Yeah, I have noticed it. There's so many anomalies in the silver and gold market that I certainly don't think they're perfectly freely traded markets at all. I do think there's some level of manipulation. But yes, I do think the price discovery mechanism is gradually shifting from the paper discovery mechanism here in the West towards more physical supply demand situation in the East. And we saw that even during the run up in January where the Shanghai Futures Exchange was showing $20 premiums to the Comex price. A lot of people don't really realize here in the West, let's just say theoretically, 20-million of us just went down and went to our coin shop and bought a bunch of silver right away. And then you watch the price, it doesn't do anything. But what does happen is if you go buy paper contracts on the commodities exchange, well, that's what drives the price.

It's supply and demand of these paper contracts that can be created artificially, synthetically at will. So, that discovery mechanism, that price discovery mechanism is shifting to more of a supply demand driven market, which is unfortunately set in the east. I wish we could have honest and free and fair markets here, but that's not the case in silver at least and gold.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I agree with you. And I think it's true in the gold market maybe to a lesser degree just because the gold market's much bigger. I think you can see the impact of these kind of manipulative efforts in the silver market more clearly than you can in gold, but I completely agree with you. I'm curious, I'll talk to folks sometimes and especially among our circles, there's a lot of folks who are aware of this kind of government malfeasance and this kind of manipulation and whatnot. And I know some people that absolutely will not touch precious metals because they say it's a manipulated market. How would you respond to that objection?

Steve Penny: Well, I would say you can use that manipulation to your advantage because if they weren't manipulated, the prices would be much higher. So, you're getting something on sale at an artificially low price. That's especially true in silver right now. And I would also say that throughout all of history, manipulations are nothing new. This is just what governments do. They lie, they cheat and they steal and they manipulate. But manipulations, especially in the silver and gold market, they always fail. They tried this in the '70s. They tried it with the London Gold Pool. Even in 2011, the bankers got overrun. They eventually squashed it with those CME margin hikes, but manipulations always fail. The free market always prevails. It just is taking a little bit longer. So I would say use that to your advantage. You're buying something on sale.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah, that's almost the exact answer that I got from one of the guys that works over at GATA, the Gold Antitrust Action Committee. And that was kind of his thing too. Yeah, it's manipulated, but that manipulation can only go so far and it can only last for so long. And he made that same point, you're effectively getting metal on sale right now, which is a good deal. And I'm happy to take advantage of whatever they'll give me because like you said, the government's not often giving us gifts. All right, I've got a fun kind of question before I get you out of here. What is your favorite gold or silver bullion product? So it could be a coin, it could be a bar, whatever it is that comes to the top of your head. It could be because of sentimental reasons or whatever. I'm just curious, what's your favorite gold or silver bullion product?

Steve Penny: Well, okay. Yeah, that is a fun question. So, I'll just be brutally honest. I've got some that were given to me as gifts. I do a lot of ministry stuff with churches and things, and some people have given me some really cool silver coins with some Bible verses on them. So those always mean a lot to me. So, those are really special. But when it comes to dollar cost averaging, I do like the sovereign minted coins, the silver eagles, just because they're so recognized and I like to buy them when the premiums are low on them. You can get an upside kicker where sometimes those premiums inflate to dramatic levels on silver eagles. So when the premiums are low, I like silver eagles. But in general, what I generally tell people is just get as most metal as you can for the least amount of dollars, so lower premiums.

So generic rounds, generic buffaloes are fine with me too. So yeah, I don't have any really cool fun coins that I collect or anything like that, although that is fun. I like seeing them.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I'm the same way. I like to look at them and say, oh, that's cool. But when it comes to actually buying, I'm like you, I'm more interested in getting as much bang for the buck. And so yeah, I agree with you there. Most people that listen know this, but I'll tell you since we're having this conversation, my favorite's the Kruger simply because my grandfather gave me some. So you do have those kind of sentimental things. Do you have a price forecast midterm and long-term for gold and silver?

Steve Penny: Yeah, and I don't mind answering it, but I'm always reluctant because the headline will be, Steve Penny predicts $15,000.

Mike Maharrey: And that's why I asked you the question, right? We want people to watch the show.

Steve Penny: Yeah, no, I get it. But if you just did an average of the previous two bull markets, the 1970s and the 1999 leading up to 2011, if you call that a separate bull market, the average return on gold was about 15X. And I believe this one started about January 2016 at $1,000. So if we just have a replay of 15X from $1,000 base, that gives you $15,000 gold. And that's just an average. And I think it's reasonable to expect that this is an amplified replay of both of those bull markets. And then let's just say you take $15,000 gold, give it a 50 to one gold silver ratio, which is again, very conservative. So that gives you about $300 silver. No, that can sound sensational maybe to some people, but I mean, look at in the early 2000s, what was oil of a dollar or two and then it went up to 150?

So, we've seen these kind of moves and commodities before, so I don't think those are unreasonable forecasts over the longer term, in the next handful of years. I'm not predicting that by the summer or next couple months.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I promise you we won't make a headline, “Steve Penny predicts $15,000 gold next year.” We won’t do that.

Steve Penny: I'm confident it's coming. I really am.

Mike Maharrey: Well, I am too. It's funny because I remember I started working in this space, it's been about 10 or 15 years ago now, and I remember back in the middle 2010s when people would talk about $10,000 gold, and that just seemed so radical and extreme, and it was headline producing it. And now honestly, when you look at the trajectory that we've seen over the last couple of years, when you look at the macro situation, you look at all of the debt, you look at the inflation, you realize that inflation is accelerating and this money destruction is accelerating. 10,000 does not sound unreasonable to me at all. And I don't think it does to most people who are kind of investment savvy. 15, it sounds a little bit more sensational, but it's just not unreasonable at this point, I don't think. I think that's a very fair, not even really a headline kind of thing.

Steve Penny: Sure. And if I can add one more point to that.

Mike Maharrey: Please do!

Steve Penny: I know you're familiar with this too, but obviously the dollar is never changing unit of account, so why measure in dollars? Rather, I like to look at gold. How many shares of the Dow can I buy? How many median US homes can I purchase? So ratios are a better way. And in the 1970s bull market at the peak 1980, the Dow bottomed at 850, gold peaked at about 850. So there's your one-to-one ratio. So ratios are a better long-term target in my opinion.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, agree completely. All right, so let folks know where they can go to find you and what they can do if they're interested in getting involved with your group and your strategy.

Steve Penny: Well, yeah, love the discussion. Thank you so much for having me on. Thank you for the opportunity to say that. Yes. SilverChartist.com is the website. It's a really cool community. It's a fully transparent over-the-shoulder service. I show everyone exactly what I'm doing. I make mistakes. So you see that too, and we're really there to sharpen each other as we navigate these wild markets together. And one unique thing we do is to generate cash flow. For example, this morning I sold a put option, so I collected 300 bucks for agreeing to buy a silver related investment. I won't give tickers and stuff at a lower price, and we're already down low. So I promised, "Hey, I'll buy something in the next month or so, but you got to pay me 300 bucks to do it." And you could do that a couple times a week. So, it's kind of a unique strategy to generate cash flow while we wait for these headwinds to turn into tailwinds.

Mike Maharrey: I love the fact that you emphasize community. That's so important in this day and age. That's something that's playing on a loop in my head as we delve deeper into this world of AI and digital. And it seems like people are getting drawn farther and further apart. So putting together people in community and working together and having that kind of hive mind, I think it's a fantastic thing. So that's a really appealing aspect of what you're doing to me, and I wanted to emphasize that for folks.

Steve Penny: Thank you so much.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So thank you so much for being on the show. I think this was a great discussion and would definitely be open in having you back at some point if you're interested. I love that. As things continue to unfold, it's always good to have another analyst who kind of understands the macro. I feel like a lot of folks in the mainstream, they get the technical stuff, but sometimes they miss the bigger picture because of their philosophical blinders. So thank you so much again for taking time out of your day and thanks. Appreciate it.

Steve Penny: You bet.

I certainly enjoyed hearing from first-time guest Steve Penny, and we will certainly look to have him back on in the future. Really good stuff there and I hope you too got a lot out of that discussion as I did.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don’t miss our second weekly podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo available each Wednesday. To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them at places like Spotify, Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts, and other popular podcast platforms. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful Halloween weekend everybody.

The Blessing Scam Is a Curse!

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

A lady exchanged C$90,000 in gold and cash for some noodles and bottled water.

That doesn’t sound like a very good deal, does it?

In fact, she was a victim of a scam.

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It seems like everywhere you turn, somebody is trying to steal your wealth. You’ve got the government constantly https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/05/inflation-is-the-plan-004459";>devaluing your money. You’ve got hackers trying to trick you into clicking nefarious links so they can access your computer. You’ve got https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/26/ai-security-you-cant-hack-physical-gold-and-silver-005319";>AI agents snooping around in bank accounts.

And then there are the scammers.

The thing about scams is that they don’t have to be very sophisticated to work. Scammers prey on fear.

And fear is a powerful motivator.

Two elderly women in Canada let fear get the better of them and lost a significant amount of gold and money.

They’re calling it “the blessing scam.”

In reality, it's a curse.

Vancouver police say in the first incident, two Asian women approached an 81-year-old lady at a bus stop. As they chatted, the scammers found out the victim had sick sons. A short time later, a male suspect joined the group and told the lady her sons could be healed if her valuables were blessed.

Police say the victim returned home and gathered about C$7,000 in cash, a gold necklace, and a ring. Then she handed them over to the man to bless them. In exchange, he gave her back a bag containing instant noodles and water.

I just have to say – that’s a pretty lame blessing.

When the victim told her daughter about the incident, she called the police.

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Investigators did not say whether the woman’s sons received the promised healing. I’m going to go out on a limb and say, no.

A week later, an unidentified Asian woman approached a 79-year-old woman at a different bus stop. Police say a second woman wearing a mask and all-black clothing joined them and told the victim that her youngest son would die if she didn’t bring her gold and money to be blessed by two men to get rid of bad spirits.

The victim took the woman in black to her home and handed over C$50,000 in gold and jewelry, along with about C$40,000 in cash in a backpack.

The thieves returned the backpack after “blessing it.” However, when the victim returned home, she realized the scammers had replaced the gold and money with noodles and water bottles.

Police say they think the two incidents were connected.

So, what have we learned?

If you want a blessing, don’t trust the randos who approach you at the bus stop. Go to a church or religious center and leave the blessings to the pros.

Also, keep an eye on your elderly friends and family members. Talk to them about the dangers out there. If somebody asks you to do something and it seems kind of crazy, trust your instincts.

And most importantly, don't let fear get the better of you. Slow down. Think things through. Wait before you act. Once the wave of emotion passes, you can make a better decision.

The Gold-Silver Ratio Is Expanding; What Next?

Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>gold-silver ratio is expanding again. This could signal that silver is setting up to resume its bull run. However, plenty of headwinds continue to buffet the market.

What Is the Gold-Silver Ratio?

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The gold-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold at their current spot prices.

In other words, it tells you the price of gold in silver ounces.

Historically, the ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1 in the modern era. When the ratio expands far beyond that average, it tends to eventually snap back to that mean, often very quickly.

For instance, in 2020, the gold-silver ratio set a record of 123-1 as COVID hysteria gripped the world. The ratio then plunged to around 60-1 as central banks cranked up the money creation machine to cope with governments shutting down economies. At the same time, silver gained approximately 157 percent between March and August 2020, climbing from $11.64 to $29.86 per ounce.

More recently, the gold-silver ratio fell from around 82-1 in October 2025 to about 46-1 around silver’s $122 January peak. In April 2025, the ratio peaked around 105-1 as the market set up for the bull run later that year.

What Is the Gold-Silver Ratio Today?

Since then, the gold-silver ratio has been generally range-bound between 60 and 70-1 since June. That’s just above the high end of the modern average. However, the ratio has started widening again. As I write this, it stands at about 77-1.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-silver-ratio-oct-26.png"; width="500" height="361" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

This raises a question: what’s causing silver to underperform compared to gold in the current environment?

Both metals face significant headwinds from rising yields and expectations of additional https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/29/fed-hits-pause-button-announces-new-meeting-format-005329";>Federal Reserve rate hikes. Because precious metals are non-yielding assets, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/18/higher-rates-are-bad-for-gold-and-silver-or-are-they-005215";>gold and silver tend to struggle in higher-yield environments.

However, despite the headwinds, the gold market continues to get support from https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/18/four-reasons-central-banks-are-piling-up-gold-005146";>central bank gold buying and Asian investors, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/29/somebody-is-buying-gold-right-now-who-005330";>particularly the Chinese.

As Metals Focus analysts noted, “Silver, by contrast, is viewed more as an industrial commodity and does not enjoy the same quasi-monetary attributes as gold.”

The physical tightness in the silver market that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>drove prices higher during two distinct squeezes in October 2025 and January 2026 has also eased.

After falling to record lows late last year, silver inventories in London vaults were at a 4-year high of 932 million ounces at the end of September, according to Metals Focus.

“Excluding metal tied up in physically backed ETPs, free-float London inventories stood at around 267Moz, nearly double the lows recorded in October 2025 and almost back to levels seen before the Trump tariff-related disruptions.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/london-silver-inventory-oct-26.png"; width="500" height="361" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Metals Focus analysts said inventories at key commodity exchanges in the U.S., China, and India also grew modestly in recent months. Rapid cooling of investor interest after the January peak was the “key contributor” to this improving liquidity.

“In 2025, substantial inflows into silver ETPs quickly absorbed liquidity in London. This year, however, silver ETP holdings have fallen by roughly 60Moz year-to-date, releasing metal that was previously tied up. Initially, this year’s outflows reflected profit-taking as prices reached a series of record highs. While these net liquidations quickly subsided, a lack of conviction in the near-term price outlook has also restrained fresh investment in silver.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/22/the-bull-market-isnt-over-silver-setting-up-for-next-leg-higher-005311";>Analyst Jesse Colombo said a lot of the bearishness in the silver market comes from investors who got in late and jumped out early.

“They piled in near the very top, just weeks or even days before silver peaked at $121, only to lose interest when it corrected, as all overheated assets eventually do. Then they simply moved on to what they believe is the latest and greatest hot asset, whether it’s an overvalued and overhyped AI stock, a new cryptocurrency, or whatever else the lemmings are currently piling into.”

Since then, Western investors have shown little interest in silver, evidenced by coin sales. According to Metals Focus, “Following a surge in Q1.26, sales of primary silver bullion coins by leading mints plunged by over 80 percent q/q in Q2, reaching their lowest quarterly level since the survey began in 2010.”

Sales recovered modestly in Q3; however, volumes remained subdued, falling by 22 percent year-on-year.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/silver-coin-sales-oct-26.png"; width="290" height="438" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Meanwhile, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/14/indian-import-tax-driving-silver-shortage-in-india-005062";>Indian silver imports dropped sharply. This past May, the Indian government raised import duties on gold and silver, hoping to stem imports and support the rupee.

According to Metals Focus, the drop in Indian silver imports helped ease liquidity pressure in London.

What's Ahead for the Silver Market?

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In the near term, Metals Focus analysts expect physical silver demand to remain subdued. Along with lower investment demand, the higher silver price is weighing on jewelry sales. It is also driving thrifting and substitution in industrial applications.

Silver has been in a structural market deficit for five years, meaning demand has outstripped mining and recycling output. Last year, demand outstripped supply by 40.2 million ounces (1,250.36 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. For perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.

With demand under pressure, Metals Focus expects the market deficit to ease further this year and flip to a surplus in 2027. This reduces the likelihood of another squeeze.

Metals Focus analysts say against this backdrop, silver will likely continue taking cues from gold over the next 12 months.

“With ongoing headwinds from rising interest rates and yields, precious metals are expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with silver’s higher beta suggesting scope for further underperformance relative to gold.”

However, Metals Focus has a more bullish long-term outlook.

“Once markets scale back expectations of aggressive monetary tightening in 2027, silver could start to outperform, as renewed upward price momentum encourages investors to rebuild their exposure.”

At that point, we can expect the gold-silver ratio to snap back to the mean once again.

For technical analysts, Colombo noted that the gold-silver ratio appears to be setting up a triangle pattern, a common occurrence when asset prices pause and consolidate.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-silver-ratio-triangle.png"; width="700" height="420" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

“In technical analysis, triangle patterns often act as https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/continuationpattern.asp"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">continuation patterns, meaning that once the necessary consolidation or cooling-off period has run its course, the original trend resumes in the same direction, setting the stage for a repeat of the prior move.”

Colombo said that when this pattern breaks down, he expects it will kick off the next phase of the bull market. At that point, silver will likely surge back to its record high of $121 and beyond.

Somebody Is Buying Gold and Supporting the Market! Who?

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

There's plenty of selling in the gold market right now.

Rising yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes have put significant pressure on gold, driving the price down to around $4,000 per ounce.

However, despite sustained headwinds over the last several months, the yellow metal has held that $4,000 support.

That means somebody is buying gold.

Who?

Chinese households are buying the dips.

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I picked up this trend simply by watching daily price movements. Virtually every day, gold prices spike when Asian markets open, as investors take advantage of falling prices during Western trading hours.

Jinrui Futures Co. analyst Zijie Wu said lower prices are “attractive entry points for long-term investors.”

“Domestic gold demand is increasingly running against the price trend, strengthening as prices fall.”

Bloomberg noted that a popular contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (AU99.99) reported a 43 million-lot volume jump last week, representing about 430 tonnes of gold. It was the highest level since April. This contract requires full payment and mandatory delivery, so it reflects physical demand, not leveraged bets.

Analysts say many Chinese investors are slowly building their gold holdings through https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>accumulation plans that allow them to buy small amounts of gold on a recurring basis. According to Bloomberg, purchases through these accumulation plans had already exceeded last year’s total through the first nine months of 2026.

Officials who asked for anonymity because the numbers aren’t public said buying picked up further last week as prices eased.

Chinese investors are turning to gold as a safe haven. Chinese stocks have lost $2.4 trillion since their May peak. Property values are slumping, and government bond returns have hit a record low.

Bloomberg asserts that Chinese buying through this year has “helped steady gold and largely kept the benchmark price above $4,000 an ounce.”

Chinese physical gold demand also helped drive the early stages of last year’s gold bull market. While Western retail investors largely sat on the sidelines, Chinese buyers snapped up a record high of 432 tonnes of gold bars and coins in 2025, a 28 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, physical investment demand outpaced gold jewelry sales.

Chinese institutional buyers have also taken advantage of the dips, evidenced by strong inflows into Chinese gold ETFs.

Huaan Fund Management Co. operated the country’s largest gold ETF. A company analyst said the equity selloff has boosted institutional gold demand, and interest increased as the price dipped toward the $4,000 level.

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/08/positive-etf-gold-flows-pushed-holdings-to-a-new-record-in-september-005276";>Asian funds added 16.2 tonnes of gold in September, valued at $2.3 billion. It was the third straight month of inflows after a brief pause last summer.

Chinese funds reported the largest positive gold flows, while activity also increased in India, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. The World Gold Council said this highlights "the breadth of regional buying."

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

Fed Hits Pause Button; Announces New Meeting Format

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Fed hit the pause button at its October meeting despite https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/15/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-september-2026-005295";>elevated inflation and gave little indication about what comes next.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also announced that the Fed will hold fewer rate-setting meetings in the future.

Fed Does Little, Says Less

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate in a range between 3.75 and 4 percent.

Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented and voted for a quarter-point rate hike.

Markets widely anticipated the pause and were looking for hints about what the Fed might do at its December meeting. However, Warsh & Co. remained tight-lipped.

The https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">official FOMC statement noted that “inflation remains elevated,” and suggested the committee wants more information to gauge the effect of September’s quarter-point hike.

“The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Warsh doubled down on this vague messaging at his press conference, once again asserting he doesn’t believe the central bank should provide “forward guidance” during normal times.

“I don’t believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis.”

He added a caveat:

“In the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis, in part using some literature and thinking from a very recent Nobel Prize winner, that kind of forward guidance is actually quite helpful. But in normal, ordinary times, especially times where the underlying real economy is this strong, I don’t believe in it. I don’t favor it.”

The Fed currently believes the economy is “expanding at a strong pace.”

Warsh said the FOMC will gather more information in the coming weeks before deciding whether it's necessary to resume rate hikes in December.

"The period right in front of us is information rich. There's a lot happening in the world. My colleagues and I are keen to take notice of it." Warsh said, adding that they will determine "the appropriate protocol" in the weeks ahead.

Reaction to the Fed’s Non-Move

It remains unclear why the Fed put rate hikes on pause. CPI has been above the mythical 2 percent target for 67 consecutive months. Core CPI rose by 0.3 percent last month.

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC he thinks the central bank should be hiking based on the current bond market, noting that the 2-year Treasury is at 4.75 percent, and Warsh just said the economy is strong.

“What are you waiting for? You just upgraded the economy right here.”

Some pundits speculate the Fed paused rate hikes to support the stock market in the days leading up to the midterm elections. Warsh insisted that was not the case.

“I just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs. I didn’t hear an utterance about politics. I didn’t hear a reference to politics, elections, what’s happening in the next week or so. Didn’t hear anything about it, and I don’t believe it had any role in the decision, not just for me, but my colleagues around the room."

We’ll never know if political considerations drove the decision, but there are $40 trillion good reasons to hold rates steady despite elevated price inflation.

Of course, I’m referring to the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>national debt. And that’s just one part of the massive https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>debt black hole dominating the U.S. economy. Debt-riddled economies don’t function well in a high-interest-rate environment.

This is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Catch-22 the central bank has faced for months, and there’s still no easy way out. It needs to cut rates to support the debt bubble, and it needs to raise rates to slay price inflation. It can’t do both, and a pause makes sense in this context.

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New Meeting Format

The biggest news coming out of the October Fed gathering was the announcement of a new meeting schedule beginning next year.

Warsh said the FOMC will still meet eight times a year, calling it “the right number for the FOMC.”

However, one meeting next year will focus solely on strategy, and the committee will not make a rate-setting announcement. In 2028, the FOMC will move to two strategy sessions and six rate-setting meetings.

Warsh called the reason for the change “straightforward.”

“Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular, and information-rich intervals. But it’s equally important we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons, focusing, as I say, on the left side of the decimal point.”

Warsh said changing the meeting format is “more than some administrative detail.”

“It’s an institutional choice, affecting the nature and the quality of our deliberations, and ultimately the wisdom of our decisions. It’s yet another change to get the conduct of monetary policy on the right track.”

AI Cybersecurity Risks, Physical Gold and Silver, and Gold’s Value

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey considers how artificial intelligence could affect trust, cybersecurity, and investors’ access to their money. He also discusses silver’s sharp correction, the long history of gold jewelry, and ways listeners might use precious metals as a physical store of value.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/gao_Lsco7lY?si=QW-5b3C1y2jjAC2W"; title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen">

AI Deepfakes and Public Trust

https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/43486804/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/1e40af/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/font-color/FFFFFF"; scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="true" msallowfullscreen="true">

Maharrey opens with a cautionary example. A story about a tiger supposedly calling for help when its keeper had a medical emergency came with images that appeared to be surveillance photos, but the story was fabricated with AI. Maharrey says he believed it until his wife noticed inconsistencies between the pictures.

He argues that increasingly convincing AI-generated images and video could make people less sure of what they see. In a climate where some people already dismiss unwelcome evidence as “fake news,” he wonders how AI might further weaken confidence in institutions, media, and even money.

Maharrey sums up the concern with a question. “What happens when you can’t tell anymore?” He suggests that the uncertainty could encourage people to value face-to-face interaction, local community, and physical media.

AI Cyberattacks and Bank Security

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Maharrey turns to what some in technology circles called “Black October,” describing a surge in reported cybersecurity vulnerabilities and attacks. Google Threat Intelligence reported that monthly vulnerability disclosures rose from 5,045 in January to 10,740 in August.

He cites technology commentator John Molinovich, who described dozens of attacks over a two-day period and said that government, education, technology, and banking were affected. Molinovich warned that powerful AI models can work around the clock and be deployed in large numbers. “They can work 24/7, and you can spin up 10,000 of them with a single command,” he wrote.

Maharrey notes that U.S. banks have reported customers giving personal AI agents access to financial accounts. Some agents reportedly contacted customer service or filed complaints without the account holder’s authorization. White House AI czar David Sacks said that much of the activity involved customers sharing credentials with agents to act on their behalf. Maharrey argues that even authorized access deserves caution, given the possibility that AI agents may take actions their users did not intend.

Physical Gold as Cyber Risk Protection

The episode connects cyber threats to counterparty risk, the possibility that another party in a transaction will fail to meet its obligations. When funds sit in a bank account, or an asset is held digitally, Maharrey says, the owner depends on institutions, networks, and power systems to access it.

He is not opposed to Bitcoin, saying he owns it and sees potential in blockchain technology. But he points out that digital assets require electricity and internet access, both of which could be disrupted by https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/12/why-bitcoin-is-not-equal-to-gold-003904";>cyberattacks, government action, or natural disasters. He uses hurricanes as an example of how a prolonged power outage could make it difficult to use a computer, charge a phone, or reach an ATM.

Maharrey recommends holding some physical gold or silver as a backup, while also taking basic https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/26/ai-security-you-cant-hack-physical-gold-and-silver-005319";>steps to protect digital accounts.

“Gold and silver in your safe cannot be hacked,” he says. “They cannot be turned off.”

He also points to Russia’s use of its gold reserves amid limited access to the dollar system as an example of how hard assets can matter when financial access is constrained.

Silver Price Correction and Bull Market

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Maharrey says silver had surged to just https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>over $120 an ounce in January before losing more than half its value. At the time of the episode, it was holding above $50. The Federal Reserve was expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting, though investors were watching closely for forward guidance.

Citing technical analyst Jesse Colombo, Maharrey says many investors only began paying attention to silver near its peak, around $121, and lost interest after the correction. Colombo observed that many had little interest when the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/22/the-bull-market-isnt-over-silver-setting-up-for-next-leg-higher-005311";>bull market began in early 2024, while silver was still trading in the $20s.

Colombo believes investors may be overlooking the possibility of another strong move higher. “This is the time to be paying close attention and accumulating while it is still quite cheap,” he wrote. Maharrey says Colombo’s technical case is laid out in a separate article with charts.

Gold Jewelry and Its 6,500-Year History

The episode also explores gold as a gift and a durable store of value. Maharrey describes a child’s grave in a Roman cemetery in Bulgaria, where archaeologists found https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/23/ancient-gold-earrings-discovered-in-roman-cemetery-005314";>well-preserved gold earrings and a small bronze coin. The cemetery, with approximately 135 graves, dates to around 275 CE.

The area near the Black Sea was annexed by Rome in 46 CE, and the city now known as Stara Zagora was renamed Augusta Traiana in honor of Emperor Trajan. Maharrey says the city eventually received permission to operate its own mint. He compares the earrings with gold jewelry found in Bulgaria in the early 1970s, dating from 4,600 to 4,300 BCE, roughly 6,500 years old.

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Maharrey notes that jewelry accounted for about one-third of gold demand in 2025, with demand totaling 1,542 tons. Gold’s durability and resistance to decay help explain its long history as both adornment and money. As Maharrey puts it, “Gold is gold basically forever.”

Money Metals Gold and Silver Offers

Maharrey highlights a Money Metals offer for https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-american-silver-eagle-random-year/262";>random-year American Silver Eagle coins at a premium of $5.97. Each coin contains one troy ounce of .999 fine silver, or 99.9% pure silver. “They’re easy to sell, they’re easy to use and barter,” he says of Silver Eagles.

He also mentions gold and silver jewelry, gold coins, and a monthly installment plan starting at $100. Listeners can contact Money Metals at 800-800-1865, order online, or arrange storage at the company’s bullion depository in Eagle, Idaho.

Can't Hack This! Gold & Silver in a Digital Age

Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Some people in tech circles are calling it Black October.

AI has reached the point where it can blast through cybersecurity defenses that were once considered unbreachable.

That means virtually anything digital can be hacked – including your bank account.

But no matter how sophisticated your AI bot, you can't hack gold or silver.

In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey explains the growing risk of AI hacking and how to protect yourself.

And as the holiday season approaches, Mike suggests a great gift that will stand the test of time, inspired by an amazing find in Bulgaria.

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"Seeing is believing. A picture’s worth 1,000 words. Show me, don’t tell me!"

Mike notes that this common-sense wisdom is starting to make less sense.

"In the age of AI, you can’t believe everything that you see. AI photos and video are getting to the point that it’s difficult to tell they’re fake. A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned a story about a tiger calling for help when his keeper had a medical emergency. The story was complete with photos from a surveillance camera. But the photos were fake. And the story was made up. And you know what? It fooled me."

Mike points out that AI has advanced significantly in a very short period of time.

"It was long ago that AI images were mocked because they couldn’t even get the right number of fingers on a hand. And now I’m paranoid! I find myself scrutinizing every video and photo I run across, trying to determine if it’s real. What happens when we can’t tell anymore?"

Mike says AI seems to be eroding our confidence in reality, with significant ramifications.

"I’ll give you an example. What gives the dollar its value? We’re told it is backed by the “full faith and credit of the federal government.” What happens when there is no longer “full faith?” I mean, there shouldn’t be, because the government is intentionally wrecking your money. But still, you see what I’m driving at here, right? And it’s not just the dollar. People have lost faith in everything. I have people tell me they don’t bother to buy gold because 'it’s just manipulated anyway.'”

Mike notes that there have been some pretty wild developments in the AI realm over the last few weeks. Some people in tech circles are calling it "Black October."

"AI has reached the point where it can blast through cybersecurity defenses that were once considered unbreachable. That means virtually anything digital can be hacked – including your bank account.

"Do you know what can’t be hacked?

"Physical gold and silver."

Over the last few weeks, cyberthreat reports have gone parabolic.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cve-tracker.jpeg"; width="500" height="298" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />Mike quotes a techie on X who summed up what's going on.

“We're 48 hours into what is being called Black October. In the last 2 days there have been several dozen cyberattacks which, in isolation, would each have been the worst to happen in an entire calendar year. Every sector, from government to education to big tech and banks, is being massively affected, and people are starting to freak out.”

Several banks have reported AI agents working within customer accounts, some of which appear to be taking unauthorized actions.

The issue is that AI agents have become nearly as good as the most sophisticated programmers. But there's a big difference. AI bots don't sleep, and you can link 10,000 together with a single command. As our techie on X put it, "They'll work together tirelessly until they accomplish their task."

Mike notes that most people assume their money is "safe" in the bank.

"Is it, though? The bank introduces significant counterparty risk. Simply put, you have no control over your funds when they are in the bank. Hackers do. With a sophisticated AI tool, hackers could access your savings account and drain it completely. They cannot 'drain' the silver coin I’m holding in my hand."

Mike said that even absent hacking threats, it's still unwise to hold all your assets in digital form.

"Consider what would happen if a major storm took out the electrical grid in your area. How would you access your money or do business if you can’t even fire up your computer or charge your phone? We take the digital world for granted, but it wouldn’t take much to send us back to the proverbial Stone Age. It’s wise to be prepared. Hold some physical gold or silver as insurance."

Mike offers some suggestions to help mitigate the risk.

"Use long, difficult passwords and change them frequently. Turn on two-factor authentication. And beware of giving AI bots access to sensitive accounts. Most importantly, keep at least one toe in the physical world. Keep assets you can hold in your hand. Gold and silver in your safe can’t be hacked, and they can’t be 'turned off.'”

Mike then pivots to silver, noting that many people have turned bearish. However, technical analyst Jesse Colombo thinks we're just in a consolidation phase, and the next leg of the bull run is right around the corner.

"Colombo has some pretty compelling technical analysis to back up this claim. I summarized it in an article over at MoneyMetals.com/news. I’m not going to try to go through it all here because there are a lot of visuals. I’ll link to the article in the show notes for you to check out."

Mike then proclaims he recently received his Walmart gift catalogue in the mail.

"It reminded me that the holidays are right around the corner. Heck, they’ll be playing Christmas music next week. So, I guess it’s time to start thinking about gift-giving, eh? Want a gift that stands the test of time?

"Get gold!"

Mike suggests gold stud earrings.

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"They are beautiful, classic, and will last, well, forever! Or at least a really long time.

"How long have people been getting gold earrings as gifts?

"At least 1,700 years!"

"At a site in Bulgaria, archaeologists unearthed a child’s grave. Among the bones, they discovered 'stunningly preserved' gold earrings."

Mike notes that the earrings look just like they came out of a case at Kay Jewelers.

"This is a testament to gold's durability."

Mike points out that gold also serves as money for many of the same reasons we value it as jewelry.

"It is durable, malleable, and it doesn’t decay, corrode, or degrade. Gold is gold – forever."

And its value is recognized worldwide.

"From skyscrapers in Manhattan to tents in the Sahara, people value gold. And of course, gold is beautiful. That’s why people have been adorning their bodies with it for more than 6,000 years. I’m pretty certain your loved one would be thrilled to get some gold this holiday season. Something to consider as you plan your holiday gift-giving!"

Mike ends the show with a call to action -- call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned in the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015";>Buy Gold and Silver to Hedge Against Counterparty Risk

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/26/russian-gold-reserves-down-62-tonnes-this-year-as-they-support-the-wartime-economy-005318";>Russian Gold Reserves Down 62 Tonnes This Year as They Support the Wartime Economy

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/22/the-bull-market-isnt-over-silver-setting-up-for-next-leg-higher-005311";>The Bull Market Isn't Over: Silver Setting Up for Next Leg Higher

The Lesson of 1971 Was Never About Gold

Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

On August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon interrupted Sunday-night television to announce https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/28/what-in-the-world-happened-in-1971-003286";>the New Economic Policy. With the Vietnam War winding down, Nixon argued that the economy required federal action to deliver what he called “a new prosperity without war.” Nixon declared that night, “We must create more and better jobs; we must stop the rise in the cost of living; we must protect the dollar from the attacks of international money speculators.”

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His policy froze wages and prices for 90 days and thawed a restraint on Washington’s management of money by suspending gold convertibility for foreign governments and central banks.

One policy froze the prices Americans could charge one another. The other released the government from the rule that forced it to redeem its monetary promises. Both followed the same instinct: when the signal becomes inconvenient, suppress it and escape the discipline it imposes.

Nixon called the suspension temporary. It was not.

Broken Promises

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Friedrich Hayek had named the vulnerability 28 years before Nixon acted. Writing in 1943, in an essay later collected in https://mises.org/library/book/individualism-and-economic-order"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Individualism and Economic Order, he granted that “the gold standard as we knew it undoubtedly had some grave defects.” Gold arrived too slowly to track real demand for money, producing deflation before new supply arrived and excess once it did.

But the defects were not the point.

Gold gave the world an international currency answerable to no single government, a monetary policy that was largely automatic and therefore predictable, and money supply adjustments that generally moved in the right direction.

Hayek’s answer was not managerial discretion but a better rule: a currency anchored to a broad basket of commodities rather than one metal, governed automatically, and explicitly not a license to freeze any individual price along the way.

Seventeen years later, in December 1960, economist Robert Triffin told the Joint Economic Committee that the system carried the seeds of its own collapse. The world needed dollars abroad, pushed out by military spending, foreign aid, and capital outflows. Every dollar that left made it less plausible that the United States could redeem them all in gold at $35 an ounce.

Later that decade, the dominoes began to fall. The London Gold Pool, a coalition of central banks trying to defend that price through coordinated selling, collapsed in 1968. Across the English Channel, France spent the back half of the decade https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/10/05/why-france-repatriated-3313-tonnes-from-new-york-and-london-in-the-1960s-003516";>converting its dollar holdings into gold, at one point sending a warship to New York to collect the gold. American gold reserves peaked in 1949 at 21,708 metric tons. That August night when Nixon spoke, they stood at 9,069, a fall of some 58 percent.

Treasury Secretary John Connally had been arguing for months that the old policy of benign neglect toward the dollar’s slide had run its course, and Nixon agreed. Meeting with Nixon two weeks before the announcement, Connally predicted, “We may never go back to it. I suspect we never will.”

Nixon called the move a defense of the dollar and an attack on speculators. It was, in function if not in name, the opposite: a default, dressed in the language of a temporary suspension. Bretton Woods ended in all but name by 1973, and the dollar has floated on nothing but promises ever since. What replaced the rule was the discretion of whoever held the job next.

By the fall of 1971, with an election about a year out, Nixon was leaning on Arthur Burns, his own appointee to chair the Federal Reserve, to keep money loose. Burns obliged. Tapes declassified decades later show a Fed chairman reporting rate cuts to the president like a subordinate delivering good news, and a money supply that grew faster in 1972 than in either of the two preceding years.

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Nixon won in a landslide. The country spent the rest of the decade paying for it, in double-digit inflation and stagflation.

The real lesson of 1971 was never about gold. It was about what happens when the person guarding the currency answers to the person spending it.

The Same Test, 55 Years Later

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Since 1971, the Fed’s independence has been questioned many times. Donald Trump had no gold window to close, so he went after the guard instead, a guard he had appointed himself in his first term.

Jerome Powell spent most of 2025 as the public target of a president demanding lower interest rates. When Powell refused to bend, a Justice Department criminal investigation opened into cost overruns at the Fed’s building renovation.

Trump also moved against the Board itself. He attempted to fire Governor Lisa Cook in August 2025, the first such attempt in the Fed’s 111-year history.

In a video statement, Powell warned of the pressure the Fed was under. He stated, “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

The Department closed the investigation in April 2026, handing what remained to the Fed’s own inspector general. Two months later, the Supreme Court blocked Trump’s first attempt to fire Lisa Cook by a single vote, 5-4, on the same day it affirmed Trump’s firing of an FTC commissioner.

Powell’s term as chair ended in May but, for the first time since 1948, the former chair stayed on the Board as an ordinary governor. His replacement, Kevin Warsh, walked into the job promising independence and a hard line on inflation. He arrived with his own ties to the White House. His father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, has been one of Trump’s closest friends since Wharton; he is credited with reigniting the Greenland debate and gave $5 million to a pro-Trump super PAC.

Warsh, to his credit, held the line. Two meetings in, he has held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent against a president who is pushing for cuts. Three regional Fed presidents, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, dissented anyway, arguing for a hike in an attempt to temper inflation sooner.

AIER’s own Monetary Rules Report found 11 of 12 standard rules pointing higher than where Warsh has held; the original Taylor rule prescribes the highest target rate, at 5.91 percent. Warsh is refusing the president’s cuts and still sitting more than two points below what that rule would require. Resisting pressure is not the same as following a rule.

But Burns did not cave in his first two meetings either. He caved in year two, once the approaching 1972 election made Nixon want loose money badly enough to ask for it outright. That incentive is forming again, on a shorter clock. Trump is not on the ballot in November, but his majority is, and since 1934 the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats during the midterms. A soft economy heading into them is exactly the condition that makes a president want lower rates.

That is the institutional danger Hayek saw. His objection to discretion was not that every manager would use it badly. It was that a system governed by judgment leaves the currency exposed to a president who wants something from it. Hayek’s point was that the currency should not have to depend on either.

Originally Published on https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-lesson-of-1971-was-never-about-gold/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">AIER's The Daily Economy.

How Could the Midterm Elections Impact the Gold Market?

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

The midterm elections are fast approaching, and Democrats are widely expected to make significant gains.

How might this impact the gold market?

If history is any indication, it will all depend on how the shift impacts policy.

Prediction markets expect the Democrats to take both the House and the Senate in the midterms. This would significantly hinder President Trump’s legislative agenda.

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In other words, gridlock is the most likely outcome.

According to the World Gold Council, domestic demand for gold bars and coins tends to rise modestly under Democratic administrations. However, elections have not historically had a significant impact on gold’s global performance over the long haul.

“Given the geographic diversity of demand, what matters is whether the resulting policy changes are sufficiently consequential for the global gold market, and whether they can offset other global forces that drive the price.”

For instance, gold initially fell as equities rose in anticipation of a pro-growth, reflationary agenda after Trump victories in 2016 and 2024. However, much of the move unwound as attention shifted from the election itself to the policies likely to follow.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-stocks-and-Trump-wins.png"; width="700" height="375" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

World Gold Council analysts expect this pattern to repeat for the 2026 midterms. Any initial market reaction will likely prove short-lived, with the real impact driven by the political gridlock likely to follow a Democrat victory.

“Regardless of the midterm results, historically, the gold price has reacted to the economic, fiscal and monetary policies that ensue, rather than to the outcome of election day itself.”

The World Gold Council highlighted four policy areas that could shift with Democratic Party control of Congress.

Fiscal Policy – The WGC asserts, “Democratic control could limit the administration’s ability to pass deficit-expanding legislation.” It’s true that Democrats would likely block Trump priorities. However, Democrats will push their own spending agenda. It seems the most likely outcome is the status quo – and the status quo is a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-administration-runs-third-largest-federal-budget-deficit-in-history-005303";>$2 trillion deficit. Meanwhile, a Democrat controlled Congress could thwart Trump’s tariff agenda, putting downward pressure on federal revenue.
War Funding – This is where Democratic control of Congress could have the most significant impact on the gold market. Congress could cut war funding and force the president to de-escalate in Iran. Soaring oil prices due to the war and their inflationary impact have created significant headwinds for gold. For the last several months, the war has effectively kept a lid on the gold bull market. Remove the lid, and gold could take off.
AI – A Democrat-controlled Congress could constrain support for AI and drive more government regulation. However, Trump’s veto pen could limit the impact. Again, the most likely scenario is gridlock. But even a modest slowdown in AI growth could have an outsized impact on the markets. As the World Gold Council noted, investors are already questioning whether “hyperscale spending” will deliver promised returns. A Democrat-controlled Congress could put additional pressure on tech stocks and tip an already shaky stock market. “Weaker equities, softer growth expectations, lower yields, and potentially a weaker dollar would likely support gold.”
Executive and “Emergency” Powers – A Democratic Congress could incentivize President Trump to expand his use of executive orders and “emergency powers” to circumvent legislative roadblocks. The Trump administration has already used executive powers to a significant degree. His entire tariff policy and the War in Iran were predicated on executive authority. World Gold Council analysts said, “The resulting institutional conflict, legal challenges, and less predictable policymaking could raise both political and geopolitical risk premia, potentially supporting gold.”

The bottom line is that a mere shift in party power isn't likely to move the gold market long term. Any election-related market move will likely prove short-lived. Investors will need to see how the new balance of power impacts policy before projecting the more substantial, longer-term market impact.

Five African Countries Have Opened Gold Refining Facilities This Year

Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Five countries have opened gold-refining facilities as African gold producers seek to keep more of their wealth at home.

As it stands, large amounts of raw gold ore leave Africa for refining. The gold later returns to the continent as imports in the form of coins, bars, and jewelry.

Zambia is the latest country to welcome a gold refining facility. According to Business Insider Africa, Minera Refineries Zambia Limited operates the facility, which can refine gold up to 99.99 percent purity.

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According to the Zambian Observer, the company believes the facility will generate more than $1.8 billion in economic value.

African Business Insider reports that the new refinery is expected to “capture more value from its gold production, formalize small-scale mining, and diversify its mineral exports.”

Gold accounts for about $262 million in Zambian exports, about 2 percent of the country’s total.

Zambian officials say the refinery will also help formalize artisanal mining. These are small-scale operations generally run by individuals, families, or small groups using simple tools and minimal mechanization. These mines often operate outside of any regulatory structure.

The hope is that a competitive local buyer and refinery could bring more production into recorded exports and the tax system.

Minera Refineries Zambia Limited managing director Andrew Mukupa Katandula recently outlined a 2-year plan to formalize artisanal mining in Zambia. The scheme includes “targeted pre-financing” for miners and improved transparency in gold production and trade.

Zambia is just the most recent African country to enter the gold processing game.

Earlier this month, a gold refinery opened in Ethiopia. State-owned Ethiopian Investment Holdings holds a majority stake in the $50 million joint venture. It will provide services, including melting, testing, ⁠refining, casting, bar minting, and die-making.

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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the facility will process gold from Ethiopia and elsewhere.

“It enables neighboring countries and regional mining companies to bring their gold to ‌Ethiopia ⁠for advanced refining, certification, value addition, and sale, eliminating the need to export it outside the continent."

Officials say the refinery will process more than 600 tonnes of precious metal annually.

Gold exports serve as one of Ethiopia’s primary sources of foreign exchange, earning the country $5.6 billion during Ethiopia’s 2025/26 fiscal year.

A month earlier, state-owned Raffinerie Nationale d’Or du Burkina Faso began operations in Ouagadougou. According to Business Insider Africa, this facility will process, assay, certify, and store gold domestically, with an initial capacity of around 515 tonnes per year.

Gold accounts for nearly 94 percent of Burkina Faso’s export earnings.

President Ibrahim Traoré said the refinery will help the country move beyond mineral extraction and “develop the full value chain locally.” He went on to say, “Our ambition goes beyond gold.”

“We want to make the mining sector a driver of industrial transformation.”

Meanwhile, a high-purity gold refinery opened in Lagos, Nigeria, in January, and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in March.

African leaders hope development of domestic refining capacity will keep more African wealth in Africa. It could also drive job creation and boost local gold jewelry production.