Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Try That With Paper Money! 2,000-Year-Old Roman Coins Stand the Test of Time

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Here’s a question for you.

If you were alive 2,000 years from now and dug up an old box of $100 bills, do you think you could spend it anywhere?

I’m going to guess no.

In the first place, it’s highly unlikely paper money would last 2,000 years underground. It would mold and deteriorate. If the box was compromised, animals and insects might even chew up the bills. Remember how https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/04/if-rats-can-eat-your-money-its-probably-not-good-money-005184";>rats ate money that drug lord Pablo Escobar’s people stashed in walls? That paper didn’t last a decade, much less 1,000 years.

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Paper doesn’t stand the test of time – kind of like the value of any fiat currency.

And that leads to the second issue. I would be shocked if the U.S. existed in 2,000 years, at least not in the same way it does now. Without a backing government, U.S. fiat money would be worthless. It would be kind of like finding a box of old Confederate money that survived the Civil War. Sure, it would have some historical value. But you couldn’t take it to Walmart and buy a trinket.

Contrast that with Roman denarii. If I dug up a box of those silver coins, they would be in virtually the same condition they were in when they were buried, with perhaps a bit of tarnish.

And I could immediately go and spend one of those silver coins. They might not take it at Walmart, but I guarantee I could quickly find someone who would accept the denarii.

Because silver has value, and virtually everybody in the world knows it.

That’s why I find these treasure discoveries so fascinating. It boggles my mind that 2,000-year-old money is as valuable as it was the day it was buried. Silver and gold stand the test of time.

I ran across an article this week about an amateur archeologist in Germany who found a trove of silver coins in a field.

Oliver Riedl found several Roman denarii and realized he was onto something big when his metal detector kept beeping. He called in help, and a group of experts unearthed 934 denarii.

That was quite a fortune in its day. Historians say a Roman soldier earned around 300 denarii per year, with about half withheld for food and equipment. So, the horde in Germany represented about 6 years of take-home pay.

Do you know what’s cool?

I can figure out the purchasing power of those coins today with a few simple calculations.

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According to https://apnews.com/article/germany-roman-silver-coins-hoard-a0d3d4b13afb3595ce7c475f9a016d2c"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the AP report, the haul of coins weighed 6.8 pounds. That converts to about 99 troy ounces.

According to archeologists, the coins dated to the reign of Roman Emperor Hadrian. Roman coins minted in that era were about 80 percent silver. That means the stash of denarii contains a little over 79.2 ounces of silver.

This morning, https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver was $65.47 per ounce, making the melt value of our denarii around $5,185.

In other words, I could theoretically buy over $5,000 worth of stuff just with the silver contained in those nearly 2,000-year-old coins.

Now, consider again what you might be able to buy with paper dollars in 2,000 years.

Let’s imagine you found $5,000 2,000 years from now. Somehow, the paper survived all those years, and the U.S. government was still around to back the money. I imagine that $5,000 would buy you about 0.0000000000001 cent worth of stuff, given the rate of monetary debasement. Heck, $5,000 buried 50 years ago would only purchase $859.75.

I think I’d rather have the Roman denarii.

One of Aristotle’s four characteristics of good money is durability. In other words, money must stand the test of time. It can’t break down, rot, or corrode easily.

Silver fits the bill.

Paper – not so much.

And you can’t print silver.

That means governments can’t devalue silver money by printing more. They have to dilute the metal's purity. In fact, that’s exactly what Roman emperors did. In the Empire’s waning years, the denarii's purity fell as low as 50 percent.

The moral of this story: get real money if you want to preserve your wealth over time. Gold and silver will not rust, corrode, mold, degrade, or be printed into worthlessness by the government!

How Much Gold Is Mined Each Year - Record 3,672 Tonnes of Global Gold Production in 2025 - Top Producing Countries, Reserves Left to Mine, and Why Sources Disagree - Money Metals

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Quick Answer: Gold miners produced 3,672 tonnes of gold in 2025, or about 118.1 million troy ounces, which set a record. Adding recycled metal brings total gold supply to 5,002 tonnes.

The world mines much less gold than many people assume. Even with the record setting gold production of 2025, that output is not enough to make a significant increase in gold supply.

That matters for gold investors, because it shows that the gold supply really is tight. It also explains something that surprises new buyers: a big jump in mining output does almost nothing to the gold price. Below, you will learn the leading producing nations for gold, current figures, and the reason so many websites quote a number that is wrong.

How Much Gold Is Mined Each Year, In Tonnes and Ounces

Here is what the world produced in 2025, the most recent full year on record.

Supply source	Tonnes	Troy ounces
Mine production	3,672	118.1 million
Recycled gold	1,404	45.1 million
Total gold supply	5,002	160.8 million

Mine production rose about 1% from 2024, which is a smaller gain than many expect when they hear the word “record.” Output has been close to flat since 2016, and while miners have added a few percent in good years. In short, nothing resembling a surge has happened in two decades.

Recycled gold makes up the remainder of the supply portion. Old jewelry, scrap, and coins get melted down and refined each year. That volume very closely tracks the price. When gold rallies, more people sell their scrap, which is why recycling rose another 3% in 2025.

What a Year of Gold Production Actually Looks Like

Gold is dense enough that a tonne of it takes up remarkably little room. This is why the annual figure often sounds a lot larger than it looks.

Stack all 3,672 tonnes from 2025 into a single block and you get a cube roughly 5.75 meters on each side. That comes out to roughly 19 feet.

To give a more direct comparison, that is smaller than a two-car garage. And yet, that represents an entire year of global effort across thousands of mines.

Do the same with every ounce ever mined and the cube grows to about 22.6 meters per side. That is roughly 74 feet. All the gold in human history would still fit comfortably on a tennis court, with room to walk around it.

Why Sources Disagree on Annual Gold Production

This question produces all sorts of results online. That fact alone is somewhat surprising for a statistic that is so closely tracked. Here is what the top-ranking pages say right now.

Source	Annual production claimed	What it actually measures
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025/supply";>World Gold Council	3,672 tonnes (2025)	Mine production, current year
https://natural-resources.canada.ca/minerals-mining/mining-data-statistics-analysis/minerals-metals-facts/gold-facts";>Natural Resources Canada	3,300 tonnes (2024)	Mine production, earlier estimate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_mining";>Wikipedia	4,000 to 5,000 tonnes	Unclear, likely total supply
Various dealer sites	2,500 to 3,000 tonnes	Old figures, never updated

Four things explain the spread, and once you know them the disagreement stops looking mysterious.

Reporting lag. Agencies publish early estimates and revise them upward as company filings arrive. A figure for last year can sit several hundred tonnes low for months before the final data lands.

Different scope. Some sources count only what comes out of the ground. Others fold in recycled metal worth another 1,400 tonnes. A few leave out artisanal and small-scale mining entirely, even though that sector produces a meaningful share of world output.

Unit confusion. Metric tonnes, short tons, and troy ounces all get loosely called "tons" in casual writing, and a metric tonne is about 10% heavier than a short ton. Careless conversion alone can swing a figure by hundreds of tonnes.

Stale content. Plenty of articles were written years ago and never revisited. A page quoting 2,500 tonnes is reporting data from before 2010 without telling you so.

The defensible answer today is straightforward: mine output is running near 3,700 tonnes a year, and total supply including recycling sits close to 5,000 tonnes.

Which Countries Mine the Most Gold

Every inhabited continent has gold mining operations. No single country comes close to controlling the market. The top five producers are the ones most people can name, but these actually matter a lot less than you might expect.

Rank	Country	2025 mine production
1	China	380 tonnes
2	Russia	310 tonnes
3	Australia	280 tonnes
4	Canada	200 tonnes
5	United States	160 tonnes

Those five countries together account for just 41% of world output. The remainder is spread across dozens of nations, including Ghana, Mexico, Peru, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan.

That decentralization is genuinely good news for buyers. Compare gold to platinum, where South Africa supplies most of the world. A single strike or policy change there can choke the market. Gold has no equivalent chokepoint, which is one reason its supply has never collapsed in a way that traps holders.

How Much Gold Is Mined in the United States Each Year?

The United States produced 160 tonnes in 2025. At the end of 2025, that gold hoard was worth approximately $22.32 billion. That output came from more than 40 lode mines across 12 states. That is in addition to placer operations in Alaska and the western states.

Two states do nearly all of the work. Nevada accounts for about 64% of domestic output and Alaska adds another 22%. Together, those two states alone amount to nearly 86% of the country’s entire mining output.

American production actually slipped from 163 tonnes in 2024, but the value of that output rose 32%. The gold price climbed far faster than volumes fell.

How Much Gold is Left to Mine

Roughly 222,600 tonnes of gold have been mined across all of human history, according to the https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/how-much-gold";>World Gold Council. At current prices that stock is worth about $29 trillion, and two-thirds of it came out of the ground after 1950.

According to the USGS, there are still about 66,000 tonnes known to remain underground. Broader estimates run close to 132,000 tonnes.

The "15 Years of Gold Left" Myth

Divide 66,000 tonnes of reserves by 3,672 tonnes of annual production and you get 18 years. That is exactly the kind of math that produces those panicked headlines you’ll see about an upcoming gold extinction.

The math is right. The conclusion, however, is not.

A reserve is gold that can be extracted profitably under today’s prices and costs. In contrast, a resource is gold we know exists but cannot yet mine at a profit. The boundary between the two categories moves constantly.

When prices rise, deposits that were once too low-grade to touch become economic. They migrate from resource to reserve. That reclassification is why global reserve estimates have stayed roughly flat for decades, even as miners extracted thousands of tonnes each year. The pool keeps refilling from the category above it.

Is Peak Gold Real?

Peak gold is the argument that annual output has topped out and will decline from here. There is some real evidence behind that, even though the doomsday proclamations overstate the case.

The World Gold Council points to several genuine pressures on future supply. New deposits are harder to find than they were a generation ago. Ore grades keep declining, so miners move more rock for less metal. Permitting timelines stretch longer each decade and capital costs keep climbing. Several of the most prospective regions also carry serious political risk.

Most forecasts for 2026 call for output to fall back from the 2025 record. Whether that marks the start of a genuine decline or just an ordinary year remains unsettled. However, nobody credible expects mine supply to surge.

Why Annual Mine Supply Barely Moves the Gold Price

This is the part that matters most if you already own gold or are deciding what to buy.

Each year of mining adds only about 1.6% to the gold that already exists above ground, because virtually every ounce ever produced is still with us. It sits in vaults, jewelry boxes, and central bank reserves rather than being consumed the way oil or copper is consumed.

That durability gives gold a stock-to-flow ratio near 60. The existing pile is roughly 60 times larger than the amount added each year. For most commodities that ratio sits close to 1. That is because this year’s production essentially is the market.

The https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/03/you-asked-we-answered-are-we-running-out-gold";>World Gold Council's own modeling puts a figure on the relationship: every 25-tonne change in supply moves the gold price by roughly 1%. Even a 200-tonne production jump, which no analyst is forecasting, would pull the price down by single digits at most.

Demand does the heavy lifting instead. Central banks alone have purchased close to 1,000 tonnes a year in recent years. That absorbs about a quarter of all mine output before any other buyer gets a chance. Investment, jewelry, and technology demand then compete for what remains.

So when you watch the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>live gold price, you are watching a demand story. A https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price-history";>long-term gold price chart shows the same thing: prices swing hard while the supply line barely moves.

What This Means If You Own or Buy Physical Gold

Mine supply is inelastic, which is the technical way of saying miners cannot ramp up quickly when demand spikes. A new mine typically takes 10 to 20 years to go from the time they get discovered until the first pour in a refinery. No amount of buying pressure conjures more metal in the short run.

When buyers rush in, two things give way instead. Premiums widen, sometimes sharply, because mints and refiners cannot keep pace with orders. No amount of buying pressure conjures more metal in the short run.

That pattern has repeated in every buying panic of the past 20 years. It reflects a bottleneck in minting and distribution, not a shortage in the ground.

The practical takeaway is about product selection rather than timing. Widely traded forms stay liquid and resell easily in any market:

https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/bars";>Gold bars carry the lowest premiums per ounce, and the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/bars/1-oz-gold-bars";>1 oz size is the most common starting point.
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/coins";>Gold coins such as the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/american-gold-eagle";>American Gold Eagle are the easiest products to sell back to any dealer in the country.
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/fractionals";>Fractional gold costs more per ounce but gives you flexibility to sell in smaller increments.

The same logic applies inside a https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/iras";>precious metals IRA. The metal is identical and only the account structure changes. If you are weighing physical metal against mining equities, our comparison of https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/physical-gold-vs-gold-stocks";>physical gold versus gold stocks covers how differently the two respond to production news.

Trying to trade the production data is a losing game regardless. The figures get published twice a year, they get revised afterward, and they move the price by 1%. Owning quality metal at a fair premium beats forecasting mine output.

Frequently Asked Questions

Known reserves total roughly 66,000 tonnes, with broader resources estimated near 132,000 tonnes. The remaining reserve base equals about 30% of everything mined so far. That figure has held steady for decades because rising prices keep converting resources into reserves.

China leads current production at 380 tonnes a year, but South Africa holds the all-time record. Its Witwatersrand Basin has yielded a large share of all the gold ever mined. South African output has declined sharply from its mid-century peak.

American mines produced 160 tonnes in 2025, worth about $22 billion at the time, with Nevada supplying roughly 64% of the total and Alaska another 22%.

About 222,600 tonnes sit above ground against roughly 66,000 tonnes of known reserves. That means we have extracted close to 77% of the gold we currently know how to reach profitably.

Just under one troy ounce, or about 27 grams apiece. Owning a single https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/coins";>1 oz gold coin puts you slightly above the global average, and https://www.moneymetals.com/measurement/how-many-grams-in-1-oz-of-gold";>knowing how ounces convert to grams helps when comparing products.

Recycling supplied 1,404 tonnes in 2025, up 3% from the prior year. That amounts to about 28% of total supply. Recycled volumes rise when prices rise, and that responsiveness softens supply shocks mining alone could not absorb.

Hong Kong to Launch Yuan-Denominated Gold Futures Contract

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Over the past week, officials have announced several measures, including a yuan-denominated gold futures contract, with the goal of further positioning Hong Kong as an international gold hub and raising the yuan's global status.

Earlier this summer, Hong Kong launched trial operations of a gold clearing and settlement system, putting the region in a position to challenge Western dominance of the global gold market.

The government-owned clearing system reportedly “mirrors” the financial infrastructure used by the LBMA in London.

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When unveiling the system, Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company CEO John Lee Ka-chiue said the company will offer “a comprehensive suite of services ranging from gold deposits and withdrawals to transaction settlements in the over-the-counter market in Hong Kong,” adding that a new gold price ticker – HAU – would be introduced to “ensure that Hong Kong gold prices are fully accessible to global market participants.”

Now, there are more plans in the works.

On Wednesday, Sept. 24, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) announced plans to launch a yuan-denominated gold futures contract early next year.

“We have recently reactivated our gold contract in the US dollar. But in the future, perhaps sometime early next year, we will be coming up with a yuan-denominated gold futures contract,” HKEX managing director Gregory Yu said.

According to the South China Morning Post, the move aims to advance two priorities outlined in the city’s five-year plan announced last week:

Promoting yuan internationalization
Developing Hong Kong’s gold market

Last week, Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu presented the five-year plan for “Hong Kong’s financial development with a longer-term perspective and a broader vision and respond with flexibility and diversity.”

“Every measure I introduce revolves around one goal: to elevate Hong Kong from a ‘must-pass route’ for capital to a ‘must-choose destination’ for capital.”

Among the measures, Hui said the Chinese special administrative region would expand yuan settlement of payments for mainland Chinese services, such as buying water from the Dongjiang, in a bid to boost the globalization of the yuan.

This policy creates a mechanism for Hong Kong to spend renminbi receipts without converting them to Hong Kong dollars. Hui said the policy will help balance yuan received with yuan paid out and reduce exchange-rate matching problems.

More broadly, officials hope to make the yuan into a working payment currency in Hong Kong. Regular yuan payments will incentivize the region’s banks and suppliers to maintain yuan accounts, payment services, and liquidity.

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Hui also announced tax reforms, saying the government will slash the profits tax rate for qualifying commodity traders from 16.5 percent to 8.25 percent by 2027.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Exchange Fund, used to defend the local currency, will increase its gold portfolio.

At a press conference last week, Hui noted that total metal storage within Hong Kong’s London Metal Exchange warehouse network had crossed 30,000 tonnes, underscoring the drive to advance commodity trading.

This represents storage of industrial metals, primarily copper and zinc.

Earlier this year, Hong Kong officials said they plan to increase local gold vaulting from 200 tonnes to 2,000 tonnes over the next three years.

Gold is flowing into Hong Kong.

According to the region’s Census and Statistics Department, 107 tonnes of gold entered Hong Kong in July, up from 72.16 tonnes in February.

Looking at the bigger picture, we discover a slow but steady migration of the gold trade from the West to the East.

In 2024, World Gold Council head of Asia-Pacific and global head of central banks Shaokai Fan noted this shift, saying the gold market's “center of gravity” has shifted to the East, as gold consumption by emerging market economies is rapidly rising, with the majority concentrated in Asia.

Meanwhile, Chinese gold investment has primarily driven the recent bull market. Gold coin and bar demand hit a 12-year high of 1,374.1 tonnes in 2025, with a record-breaking value of $154 billion. More than half of that global coin and bar demand came from two countries – China and India.

COMEX Silver Inventory - Registered vs Eligible Silver in CME Vaults - Daily Stocks Report, Delivery Notices, and Five-Year Vault Trends - Money Metals

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

COMEX vaults held about 330.1 million ounces of silver as of Friday, September 18, 2026. Of that, 97.3 million ounces were registered, or silver with a warrant, ready to deliver against futures contracts. The remaining 232.8 million ounces were eligible. These figures come from the https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls";>CME Group’s Daily Metal Stocks Report, cross-checked against https://metalcharts.org/comex/silver";>MetalCharts.

Many alarming headlines derive from these numbers. Some report that the vaults are draining. Others claim that COMEX cannot deliver its silver holdings.

This guide will help you sort fact from fiction. You will learn how to read these reports yourself so that you can verify these claims on your own.

There is something we should note before we begin. COMEX stock data tells you about the physical market, but it is not a price signal. We will stick to what the numbers can accurately measure.

COMEX Silver Inventory

Category	Silver Inventory
Registered Silver	97.3 million oz
Eligible Silver	232.8 million oz
Total COMEX Silver Inventory	330.1 million oz

Data as of September 18, 2026. Source: CME Group Daily Metal Stocks Report.

What Is COMEX Silver Inventory?

COMEX is the metals exchange owned by CME Group. The exchange lists silver futures, which are contracts to buy or sell silver at a set price on a given date. You can learn the basics in our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/what-is-the-comex";>what the COMEX is.

COMEX silver inventory is the metal held in vaults that the exchange has approved. In the industry, these vaults are called depositories. Crucially, CME Group does not store the silver itself. It entrusts the running of depositories to banks and private vault companies.

Every business day, each depository reports its silver holdings. CME then posts the totals in a single file. Every inventory chart and tracker is built on that daily report.

Not all silver bars qualify to be held in the COMEX silver inventory. A COMEX silver bar must weigh about 1,000 troy ounces and be at least .999 fine, according to https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/COMEX/1a/112.pdf";>CME’s silver futures rules. These are the same large bars sold as https://www.moneymetals.com/1000-oz-silver-bars/148";>COMEX-approved 1,000 oz silver bars.

Registered vs Eligible Silver: What Each Number Means

The report splits the silver in each vault into two groups. The difference between these two is one of the key things to know when you read headlines about COMEX.

Registered Silver

Registered silver has a warrant attached. A warrant is a document of title. Approved depositories issue it, and it proves who owns a certain set of bars, as the https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/files/comex-gold-warrants-faq.pdf";>CME’s warrant FAQ explains.

Only registered silver can be handed over to settle a futures contract. That is the reason why traders watch it so closely. When people say the vaults are draining, they are almost always looking at the registered silver inventory.

Eligible Silver

Eligible silver meets all the criteria for COMEX holdings. It even sits in the same approved vaults as registered silver. The difference is that this silver does not have a warrant. It belongs to banks, funds, or other owners who simply store the silver in these places.

As https://coinweek.com/comex-silver-inventories-fall-below-100-million-ounces-as-physical-demand-tightens-global-market/";>CoinWeek puts it, eligible silver “remains outside the deliverable supply unless owners designate it for that purpose.”

That distinction is often left out of the headlines. An owner can move silver from eligible to registered with paperwork alone. The bars never leave the shelf, and the reverse is also true. That means that even if there is a drop in registered silver, it does not inherently mean that metal left the building.

Combined (Total) Stocks

Combined stocks are both registered and eligible. The total tells you how much silver COMEX holds. The split tells you how much of it is ready for delivery.

It is easy to be misled if you only monitor one of these numbers. The spring of 2026 provides an example. Between May 21 and June 1, combined stocks rose by about 4.8 million ounces, according to a https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2026-06-03/comex-silver-vault-just-grew-reason-matters-more-number";>Kitco analysis. Registered silver grew by nearly 3 million ounces in that same window.

The Kitco analysis emphasizes that the reason for a change matters more than the degree of change. New metal arriving is not the same thing as a label change on metal already there.

How to Read the CME Daily Silver Stocks Report

You don’t need a paid tracker to follow COMEX silver. The raw data is free. Go to the CME’s https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html";>Delivery Notices and Stocks page and download the Silver file under Metals Stocks. It opens as a spreadsheet.

Here is how to read it, step by step.

Find the depository rows. Each vault gets its own block. Its name appears at the top of that block.
Read the registered and eligible lines. Each vault shows both groups on separate lines.
Check the columns left to right. You will see the prior day’s total, then silver received, silver withdrawn, net change, and adjustments. The last column is the new total.
Look at the “Adjustment” column. This is where transfers between registered and eligible often show up. A big move here with no withdrawal usually means a label change, not metal leaving.
Jump to the bottom. The final rows add up registered, eligible, and combined silver across all vaults. Those are the numbers trackers quote.

Common Mistakes

Most false alarms come from one of three errors:

Reading one vault as the whole market. One depository can lose a lot of silver while others gain it.
Treating a transfer as a withdrawal. Moving bars from registered to eligible cuts the registered total. But the silver is still in the vault.
Comparing numbers from different days. Always note the date on the file. A number with no date can’t be checked.

If you have ever wondered where to find silver inventory data, this file is the answer. Nearly every chart online starts here.

COMEX Silver Inventory Chart: Five Years of Vault Data

One day of data does not tell you much. The trend is the thing that matters. The chart below shows combined COMEX silver stocks, registered plus eligible, from September 2021 to September 2026.

Line chart of COMEX silver inventory from 2021 to 2026. Combined stocks rise to a peak near 532 million ounces in September 2025, then fall to about 319 million ounces by June 2026.

Source: CME Group data via https://datatrack.trendforce.com/Chart/content/1545/comex-inventory-silver";>TrendForce DataTrack. Registered figures from CoinWeek and Kitco.

2021 to 2024: A Slow Decline

Combined stocks started this period near 359 million ounces. They drifted lower for two years and hit about 266 million ounces in November 2023. Then they slowly rebuilt to about 319 million ounces by the start of 2025.

2025: A Surge, Then a Reversal

Early 2025 brought a rush of silver into New York. Fears of U.S. tariffs pulled metal into COMEX vaults, https://www.mining.com/web/london-bullion-vaults-see-historic-inflows-after-silver-squeeze/";>according to MINING.COM. Combined stocks passed 500 million ounces by the end of April. They peaked near 532 million ounces in late September.

Then the flow reversed. In October 2025, London ran short of silver. Prices there rose above New York prices, so traders shipped metal across the Atlantic. About 48 million ounces left COMEX vaults for London that month, per the same MINING.COM report. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-10-23/london-faces-150-million-oz-silver-shortfall-amid-comex-drain-insider";>Kitco tracked the early stage of the move, with stocks falling from about 530 million to 501 million ounces.

2026: The Two Marked Points

February 11, 2026. Combined stocks had fallen to about 386 million ounces. Registered silver dropped to 98,138,005 ounces, per https://coinweek.com/comex-silver-inventories-fall-below-100-million-ounces-as-physical-demand-tightens-global-market/";>CoinWeek. That day alone, 3,256,882 ounces left the registered group. Silver in Shanghai traded roughly $10 above Western spot prices at the time.

June 1, 2026. Combined stocks hit about 318.7 million ounces, near the 2026 low. Registered silver stood at about 84.6 million ounces, according to https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2026-06-03/comex-silver-vault-just-grew-reason-matters-more-number";>Kitco.

September 2026. Both numbers have since recovered. Combined stocks reached about 330.1 million ounces by September 17. Registered silver rebuilt to about 97.3 million ounces. That is higher than 62.4 percent of all daily readings since 2020, according to https://metalcharts.org/comex/silver";>MetalCharts.

What the Chart Shows

Two different stories run through this data.

Combined stocks fell by about 40 percent from the September 2025 peak to June 2026. That is a real drop. Over 200 million ounces left COMEX vaults. Some of that metal moved to other markets, including about 48 million shipped to London in October 2025 alone. Silver leaving New York is not the same as silver vanishing.

Registered silver tells a calmer story. It fell from February to June, then came back to about where it started. It also grew as a share of the total, from about 25 percent in February to about 29 percent in September. In other words, a bigger slice of COMEX silver is now ready for delivery than at the start of the year.

This is why it pays to read both lines. A headline built on one number can point you the wrong way.

You can compare these swings with price moves on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>live silver price chart.

How COMEX Silver Inventory Changes During Delivery

Most futures traders never take delivery. Instead, traders close or roll their contracts before the delivery month. However, some hold onto the contract and ask for real metal. This is when registered silver enters the equation.

Contracts, First Notice Day, and “Stood for Delivery”

One COMEX silver contract equals 5,000 troy ounces, per https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/COMEX/1a/112.pdf";>CME Rule 112102. That is five bars of about 1,000 ounces each. Each bar may be up to 10 percent heavier or lighter.

First notice day is the first day a seller can tell the exchange it plans to deliver. Traders who still hold long contracts on that day may be asked to accept silver.

A contract has stood for delivery when the buyer keeps it open into the delivery window. The seller then hands over a warrant for registered bars.

Delivery moves a warrant. However, it does not always move the metal itself. After delivery, the new owner can leave the silver registered. They can also shift it to eligible, or withdraw it from the vault. Only a withdrawal lowers the combined total of COMEX’s silver holdings.

Worked Example: September 2026 First Notice Day

We’ll break down the essential math investors should know here.

On first notice day for the September 2026 contract, 1,077 contracts stood for delivery.

1,077 contracts × 5,000 ounces = 5,385,000 ounces
Registered silver was about 99.3 million ounces on September 1, per https://thevaultreport.com/metals/silver";>The Vault Report
5.385 million ÷ 99.3 million = about 5.4 percent

So, first notice day called for a little over 5 percent of the silver ready for delivery.

Notices keep coming as the month goes on, so the full-month total is larger. Through September 18, CME recorded 6,168 silver delivery notices in September, about 30.8 million ounces, according to CME's https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf";>year-to-date delivery report.

That is about a third of registered stock. Yet registered silver barely moved, slipping from about 99.3 million to 97.3 million ounces. Most of the delivered metal changed owners without leaving the vault.

To judge whether a delivery month has truly strained the supply, compare notices to registered stock. Monitor the withdrawal column in the days that follow.

Why “The Vaults Are Draining” Headlines Keep Coming Back

A quick search of the term “COMEX silver” on YouTube or Reddit often shows the same phrases over and over again.

“The vaults are draining.”

“COMEX can’t deliver.”

“Is COMEX lying about silver?”

These fears do have some basis in reality. It’s true that registered silver fell sharply in early 2026. However, three habits keep these headlines in the news even when the data changes.

Registered drops get reported without the eligible side. A shift from registered to eligible looks like a drain if you only read one line.
One vault gets quoted as the whole market. A large withdrawal at one depository can be offset by gains at another.
Delivery months get read as crises. Every contract month brings notices. Big numbers on first notice day are normal, not proof of failure.

Be wary of viral figures you see online. Sometimes posts go viral claiming that COMEX has lost an extraordinary amount of silver.

There is a simple fix to avoid false or exaggerated reporting. Before you share a number, find its date and its source. This tells you whether the report is recent and up-to-date. Then, open that day’s CME file and check it.

Does Low COMEX Inventory Mean a Silver Shortage?

Not on its own. COMEX is one pool of silver among several. London vaults hold large amounts, and the https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data";>LBMA publishes monthly London vault data. Shanghai has its own exchange stocks. Silver funds hold metal too.

A drop at COMEX can mean silver simply moved to another market. It does not necessarily mean that silver vanished from the market. The price gap between Shanghai and New York in February 2026 is an example of metal being pulled toward the places where demand is strongest.

The bigger question of global supply and demand is covered in our guide, https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/is-there-a-silver-shortage";>Is There a Silver Shortage?

Frequently Asked Questions

As of September 18, 2026, COMEX vaults held about 330.1 million ounces of silver. About 97.3 million ounces were registered and 232.8 million ounces were eligible, based on https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls";>CME data reported by https://metalcharts.org/comex/silver";>MetalCharts.

Registered silver has a warrant and can be delivered against futures contracts. In contrast, eligible silver meets COMEX standards but has no warrant. It cannot be delivered until its owner registers it.

CME posts its Daily Metal Stocks Report each business day on its https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html";>Delivery Notices and Stocks page. Each file shows the prior day’s changes by vault.

One standard COMEX silver futures contract equals 5,000 troy ounces, per https://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/COMEX/1a/112.pdf";>CME Rule 112102. Delivery is made in five bars of about 1,000 ounces each.

Read the Numbers, Not the Headlines

COMEX silver inventory is not a secret or a mystery. The data is free to access. It updates every business day. Once you know the layout, it only takes a few minutes to read.

Registered silver shows what’s ready for delivery. Eligible silver shows what’s stored but not pledged. Combined stocks show the full picture.

Futures inventory is one part of the silver market. Owning physical metal is another. If you’d rather hold silver you can see, browse our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars";>silver bars or check today’s https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price.

Treasury Announces Second Oversized Bond Buyback as It Tries to Put a Lid on Yields

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Treasury Department will buy back another $6 billion in long-term Treasuries today (Thursday, Sept. 24) as it continues efforts to tamp down rising yields.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced this second expanded buyback on Wednesday.

And once again, the markets shrugged.

The 30-year Treasury hit a session high of 5.38 percent, close to the 5.4 percent peak earlier this month, the highest since 2007. Thursday morning before the buyback, the 30-year yield had nudged upward to 5.42 percent.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/30-year-treasury-sept-24-26.png"; width="600" height="304" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

That's probably not the result Bessent was hoping for.

Thursday's operation will begin at 1:40 p.m.

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Last month, Bessent signaled that the Treasury would increase its bond market intervention. Initially, he said the plan was to “at least” double operations from $2 billion to $4 billion beginning in September. Yields initially fell but quickly recovered.

Last week, the Treasury executed the first buyback, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/treasury-department-announces-even-bigger-bond-buyback-market-shrugs-005192";>purchasing $6 billion in long-dated Treasuries.

Yields fell - and then started climbing again within the hour.

In these operations, the Treasury Department buys older long-term bonds on the open market and retires them. In theory, the increased demand will raise prices and lower yields. This benefits the federal government by lowering interest rates on newly issued debt on the long end of the curve.

The Treasury funds these buybacks by selling shorter-term notes and bonds. In practice, the Treasury borrows money to buy debt from people who already lent it money so it can borrow more money from other people at a slightly lower interest rate.

This is imperative given that the federal government already https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>shells out over $1 trillion annually in interest expense.

However, so far, the efforts haven’t produced the desired effect. The bond market continues to sell off despite the Treasury’s intervention.

Perhaps Thursday’s buyback will move the needle on yields, but it seems unlikely given the market’s response to the announcement.

In the big scheme of things, this isn’t a big operation. Six billion dollars is a drop in the bucket in a $32 trillion bond market.

But while the operation's extent isn’t materially significant, Bessent’s message is.

And what is that message?

Desperation.

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The Treasury Department is worried about the state of the bond market and its ability to continue funding the federal government's borrow-and-spend binge.

After Bessent announced the $6 billion buyback last week, Stanley Druckenmiller said the Treasury Secretary is setting his feet on a slippery slope. Now that he’s intervened, it may well require increasingly larger buybacks just to keep a lid on the market.

“Once markets believe Treasury is defending a price, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve, and the operations must grow to survive the tests. Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose. The only variable is how much they spend before conceding.”

This messaging could backfire on Bessent. The markets might decide the Treasury Department’s desperate swing at yields is a signal to get out of an unraveling bond market.

Time will tell.

Chinese Gold Imports Hit Highest Level in Nearly a Decade

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

So far this year, Chinese gold imports are at the highest level since at least 2017.

China ranks as the world’s largest gold market.

Through the first eight months of 2026, China spent $158.8 billion to import more than 1,100 tonnes of gold, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

That’s already far above the total imported in 2025.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/china-gold-imports-aug-26.png"; width="500" height="368" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

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Chinese customs data date back to 2017.

Jinrui Futures Co. analyst Zijie Wu said strong investment demand has kept the gold price at a slight premium in China, incentivizing imports.

"The yuan has remained strong since the beginning of this year, creating favorable conditions for gold imports and enabling regulators to grant more generous approval quotas."

Imports also got a boost in June when the government instituted https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/30/chinese-officials-float-plan-to-streamline-gold-importexport-rules-005023";>a new import licensing regime that encouraged banks to use up existing import quotas.

Saxo Bank head of commodity strategies Ole Hansen said Chinese investors are accumulating gold as an alternative to traditional investments in property and stocks, noting that the opportunity cost for holding gold is lower in China than in the West.

"While investors in the rest of the world are facing some headwinds from rising interest rates and surging bond yields, the opposite is the case in China where short- and long-term yields are significantly lower, reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion."

Notably, China’s U.S. Treasury holdings fell to $618 billion in July. That was the lowest level since August 2008.

However, there are signs physical demand may be cooling.

Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell 22 percent month-on-month in August to 62 tonnes. According to the World Gold Council, this reflects “cooling momentum in bullion investment and still tepid gold jewelry demand overall.”

On the other hand, gold ETF investment surged last month, with Chinese ETFs accumulating 11 additional tonnes of gold in August.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

World Gold Council analysts say Chinese gold investment will likely hinge on the price trend as we move into the final months of 2026. However, “Falling yields and equity market uncertainties may provide support.”

“Meanwhile, gold jewelry demand is likely to receive a seasonal boost as, historically, retailers ramp up their restocking ahead of the peak season in Q4.”

Gold Mountain Asset Management managing director Lisa Liu https://www.ft.com/content/ed38995e-c7be-4703-9775-eb384a037ce3"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">told the Financial Times that despite the recent cooling in Chinese demand, she remains bullish long-term, saying the rotation into gold “is not a short-term trade.”

"It’s a multiyear repositioning of household and official assets. The scale and persistence of Chinese buying is now a core driver of global gold prices, and we expect it to hold as long as uncertainty over growth and geopolitics remains.”

A ramp-up in official Chinese central bank buying has also boosted the broader Chinese gold market.

The People’s Bank of China official added another 20.2 tonnes of gold to its reserves in August. It was the 23rd straight month of reported gold buying, raising official Chinese reserves to 2,386 tonnes.

So far in 2026, the Chinese central bank has increased its official gold holdings by around 80 tonnes.

Keep in mind that China is among the central banks likely to hold significantly more gold than they publicly disclose. As Jan Nieuwenhuijs has reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/02/chinas-gold-reserves-going-through-the-roof-003956";>data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank currently sits on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold – more than TWICE the publicly admitted amount.

The mainstream has picked up on this. In a note published earlier this month, Goldman Sachs estimated the PBoC bought 35 tonnes of gold in July. It officially reported a 20-tonne increase in its gold reserves.

Merk: Don't Give Up Your Gold!

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

With bond yields on the rise and markets penciling in another Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year, a lot of people are https://www.moneymetals.com/sell-to-us";>selling their gold.

Axel Merk doesn’t think you should.

Merk is the https://share.google/B8lBc1CmEaUSL2sCn"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">founder of Merk Investments, and he has a reputation as an even-handed analyst, not prone to getting caught up in the latest headline. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Merk said he thinks Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is doing a good job of “restoring discipline” and pulling away from politics at the central bank. He also praised Warsh for hiking rates at the September meeting.

“It was time to raise rates; he raised the rates.”

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But Merk insisted that “good” monetary policy only goes so far when governments show no fiscal restraint.

“If you have bad fiscal policy, good monetary policy can only do so much. With bad monetary policy combined with bad fiscal policy, you can make things dramatically worse.”

There is certainly a lack of fiscal restraint.

The U.S. government has managed to pile up more than https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>$40 trillion in debt. While this eye-popping number should raise red flags, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/15/while-everybody-obsesses-about-rate-hikes-federal-spending-marches-along-unabatted-005205";>the borrowing and spending continue unabated.

With one month remaining in fiscal 2026, the Trump administration has spent $6.81 trillion, 2.2 percent more than in the same period in 2025.

A 2.2 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?

And Uncle Sam isn’t the only one with a spending problem. Government debt in the eurozone has ballooned to over €14 trillion (USD $16 trillion).

Merk said, “At the end of the day, fiscal policy is gonna drive things.”

And that means you shouldn’t sell your gold just because you see interest rates climbing.

Merk said higher interest rates could theoretically impose more discipline on lawmakers, but he is skeptical that elevated bond yields alone will force Washington to address government spending.

Merk is right.

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Politicians aren't incentivized to deal with long-term problems like spending, especially if doing so will cause their constituents’ pain. Keep in mind that a politician's number one goal is getting reelected. You don’t do that by making life harder on voters. But any meaningful steps to rein in spending will cause short-term pain. Programs will need to be cut. It’s easier for a politician to kick the can down the road and let somebody else deal with the debt fallout.

Given the political incentives, more spending in the future is far more likely than less.

So, even with what he considers solid monetary policy and a necessary pivot to higher rates to tamp down inflation, Merk said he is still bullish on gold, saying, “I do like my gold even with a Kevin Warsh Fed.”

“We got a fiscal mess. How do you diversify? And gold may well play a role in that.”

Merk also said a potential AI bust could also prove bullish for the yellow metal, noting that debt is the primary driver behind the artificial intelligence investment boom. If the bubble bursts and the economy goes into a tailspin, the Fed will be forced to reverse its tightening cycle.

“When you have a debt-financed boom that’s followed by a bust, in order to mitigate the fallout from the debt that’s left over, you tend to have lower interest rates.”

I'm not nearly as sanguine about the Warsh Fed as Merk, but even if you think the central bank is on the right track and will stay true to its inflation-fighting cause, https://youtu.be/4CiNHA7LrEI?si=KYb41FRaexpCeqWL"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">now is not the time to sell your gold and silver!

COMEX Silver Withdrawals Raise Questions as Physical Demand Builds

Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

A bank run is a familiar danger in a fractional-reserve banking system. In December 1930, as the Great Depression deepened, the privately owned Bank of United States in New York collapsed after a run by depositors. Despite its name, it was not a government institution. It served many immigrant families and small businesses.

When rescue-merger negotiations failed and confidence evaporated, depositors rushed to withdraw their money. New York state banking authorities closed the bank on Dec. 11, 1930, leaving more than 400,000 depositors affected. By deposit size, it was the largest U.S. bank failure to that point.

The problem was inherent to fractional-reserve banking. Banks keep only a portion of deposits in reserve while lending and investing the rest. The system functions until too many people want their money back at the same time.

Money Metals Midweek Memo host https://share.google/R3W1cRSQAbKnO5byc"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mike Maharrey said the silver futures market carries a somewhat similar risk. Futures contracts promise delivery of silver at a specified price and date, but most traders settle or roll their contracts rather than take physical metal. As a result, paper claims far exceed the amount of metal immediately available for delivery.

The exact paper-to-silver ratio is unclear. Maharrey said estimates of 100-to-1 or even 250-to-1 circulate, but he could not find verifiable data supporting them. What can be measured is the amount of registered silver in COMEX vaults relative to paper claims.

As of mid-September, there were slightly more than five paper ounces of silver for every ounce of registered physical silver, a roughly 5-to-1 ratio.

If a large enough share of contract holders demanded their metal, the system could face significant delivery stress.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/bNpQaOvdIUA?si=F9yLyhKDs_qF8jo_"; title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen">

More Than 7 Million Ounces Leave COMEX Vaults

https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/43006183/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/1e40af/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/font-color/FFFFFF"; scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="true" msallowfullscreen="true">

That possibility is worth watching after a notable recent increase in physical silver withdrawals from COMEX vaults.

CME data showed 6,168 September silver delivery notices through Sept. 18, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/21/7-million-ounces-of-silver-left-comex-vaults-last-week-with-a-spike-in-deliveries-005220";>representing 30.84 million ounces. In futures-market terminology, however, “delivery” does not necessarily mean silver physically leaves a warehouse. Usually, delivery means the transfer of a warehouse warrant to a new owner.

The more notable figure was the amount of metal that actually departed the COMEX system. About 7.1 million ounces, or roughly 223 metric tons, left COMEX vaults in the seven days from Sept. 10 through Sept. 17. That represented about 2.1% of total COMEX silver inventory.

Registered silver, meaning metal with an active warrant and available for immediate futures delivery, increased by 1.4 million ounces to 97.3 million ounces during that period. Eligible silver, which meets COMEX standards but lacks an active delivery warrant, fell by about 8.6 million ounces to 232.8 million ounces.

Total inventory consequently dropped from 337.2 million ounces to 330.1 million ounces. The difference shows that approximately 7.1 million ounces physically left COMEX warehouses.

CME reports do not establish whether the withdrawn metal was the same silver associated with September delivery notices. They only show that the metal is no longer in the vault system.

The outflow was roughly 25% larger than the 5.75 million-ounce drawdown between Oct. 3 and Oct. 9, 2025, at the beginning of the October silver squeeze. It was about half the 13.96 million-ounce drawdown recorded between Oct. 9 and Oct. 16, when that squeeze peaked.

Unlike the October episode, though, registered inventories increased last week rather than falling. The earlier squeeze drained nearly 14.2 million ounces from the registered category. The latest data therefore signals strong physical withdrawals, but not the same immediate pressure on deliverable COMEX supplies.

A Tight Physical Market Remains the Bigger Story

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One week of outflows does not prove an imminent silver shortage. Metal could flow back into COMEX vaults next week. But sustained withdrawals could become significant quickly and potentially set the stage for another squeeze.

The silver market has already experienced two meaningful squeezes during the past 12 months. The October squeeze pushed https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver above $50 an ounce, while a second squeeze sent prices to $120 an ounce in January before a correction. The market was eased in part by shifting metal between London and New York, but Maharrey argued that the underlying supply-and-demand problem has not disappeared.

Silver is on track for its sixth straight annual supply deficit, meaning demand is exceeding newly mined and recycled supply. By the end of this year, the cumulative deficit is expected to approach 800 million ounces, roughly equivalent to one year of global mine production.

Industrial users, jewelry makers, and other consumers must meet shortfalls by drawing on above-ground stockpiles. Before the recent string of deficits, above-ground stocks rose by 243 million ounces from 2010 through 2020. Maharrey said the market has seen a net stock rundown of about 473 million ounces during the last 15 years.

The world is not about to run out of silver, but tighter physical availability creates upward pressure on prices. A continuing pattern of COMEX vault withdrawals could be one factor that lights the fuse for another squeeze.

Rising Rates Do Not Automatically Mean Lower Gold

Maharrey also pushed back against the conventional view that rising interest rates are necessarily https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/18/higher-rates-are-bad-for-gold-and-silver-or-are-they-005215";>bearish for gold and silver. With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, its highest range since 2007, some investors have sold precious metals on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening.

Higher yields can create an opportunity cost for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. But the more important measure is the real interest rate: the nominal yield adjusted for price inflation.

A 10-year Treasury yielding 5% while CPI runs at 3.5% has a real yield of just 1.5%. If a bond yields 3% while CPI runs at 5%, the real yield is negative 2%, meaning an investor loses purchasing power in real terms.

Maharrey cited financial writer and Fed watcher Adam Sharp, who pointed to the 1970s as an example. Gold rose nearly 2,329% during that decade even as interest rates climbed. In 1974, three-month Treasury bills yielded 7.4%, but CPI inflation peaked at 12%, producing a real rate near negative 4.6%.

From August 1976 through January 1980, gold rose more than sevenfold while interest rates were climbing toward nearly 20% under Paul Volcker’s inflation fight. Gold also advanced through much of the 2000s bull market as rates both rose and fell.

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The lesson is that rate direction alone does not determine gold’s path. When central banks raise rates because inflation is problematic, inflation itself can support demand for hard assets. Maharrey said money-supply growth of roughly 5% annually points to continuing monetary inflation that will eventually appear in consumer and asset prices.

The Fed’s Debt Trap

Sharp and Maharrey agree that the Fed faces a fundamental Catch-22. It needs https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/21/the-federal-reserve-is-shadow-boxing-inflation-005221";>higher rates to restrain inflation, but higher rates worsen the government’s debt burden, increase deficits, and threaten an already fragile economy.

Sharp argued that the Fed cannot raise rates to the 10% or higher levels that might be needed to decisively defeat inflation without severely damaging a debt-bloated economy. Maharrey said today’s debt load makes it impossible for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to operate as another Paul Volcker.

His central takeaway was that inflation remains built into the system. Even the Fed’s stated 2% CPI target means a dollar loses purchasing power every year, amounting to roughly 10% over five years and 20% over 10 years before compounding.

For that reason, Maharrey argued that investors should not sell gold or silver simply because the Fed may hike rates again. He encouraged listeners to consider sound money as a long-term way to protect purchasing power.

For more market news, visit http://moneymetals.com/news";>MoneyMetals.com/news. This week’s Friday Market Wrap will feature economist and gold advocate https://share.google/JGGw5OLl80HoUMS4i"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nomi Prins.

Silver Price All Time High - $121.67 Record vs the 1980 and 2011 Peaks - Inflation-Adjusted Highs, Gold-Silver Ratio, and Coin Melt Values at the Record - Money Metals

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Silver's all-time high is $121.67 per troy ounce, set on January 29, 2026. Silver trades near $66 today, about 45% below that record. The 1980 peak of roughly $49.45 was far lower in dollars, but after adjusting for inflation it was higher.

Last updated: September 18, 2026

What Is Silver's All-Time High Price?

Silver hit $121.67 an ounce on January 29, 2026, and that is the highest price the metal has ever reached in plain dollars.

The Silver Institute is the metal's main trade group. It puts the record on that same date, reporting a record high above $121 on January 29, 2026 (https://silverinstitute.org/elevated-lease-rates-regional-liquidity-tightness-and-robust-investor-interest-resulted-in-record-silver-prices-in-2025/";>The Silver Institute).

Silver has fallen a long way since then. In mid-September 2026 it traded near $66 an ounce, roughly 45% below the January peak. You can check the live number on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price page.

The sources agree that the silver record hit $121, but different sources record it at $121.62, $121.64, and $121.67. The little disparity does not invalidate the figure. Each source uses a different price series; spot prices, London benchmark prices, and futures prices all settle at different levels. This page uses the spot figure of $121.67.

Silver's record highs at a glance

Peak	When	Price per ounce	Roughly, in 2026 dollars	Main driver
1980	January 1980	About $49.45	About $213	An attempt to corner the market
2011	April 2011	Just under $50	About $73	Debt fears and heavy investor buying
2026	January 29, 2026	$121.67	$121.67	Supply deficits, industry demand, a supply squeeze

Dollar figures for 1980 and 2011 vary by source and by price series, so see our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price-history";>silver price history page for the full annual record.

Silver's All-Time High, Adjusted for Inflation

There is a crucial distinction when it comes to silver’s record, and it is one that many sites ignore. Silver’s record in dollars is not its record in buying power.

Silver peaked near $49.45 in January 1980. At that time, a dollar had much more purchasing power than it does today. Run that price through the Consumer Price Index and it works out to roughly $213 an ounce in current money. You can check the math with the https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm";>BLS inflation calculator.

All of which makes the $121.67 record a bit of a misnomer. If you measure silver price in terms of real purchasing power, silver is still well short of where it stood in 1980. From its January 2026 peak, it would need to rise roughly another three-quarters to match what an ounce was worth 46 years ago.

The 2011 peak is a different story. Just under $50 in April 2011 comes to about $73 by today’s standards. The 2026 run cleared that mark by a significant margin in both plain and inflation-adjusted terms.

The Road to $121: How Silver Broke a 45-Year Record

Silver spent decades trading below its 1980 high. Then, in the space of just four months, it cleared that level and kept going.

October 2025: silver clears $50

Silver broke $50 an ounce in October 2025. That was the first genuine record silver experienced in 45 years. Two earlier runs, in 2011 and again in 2020, both stalled well short of that line.

The next phase was, according to the Silver Institute, an unprecedented liquidity squeeze. Metal stocks were falling, metal was moving into exchange vaults, and exchange-traded products were buying. Coin and bar demand jumped 14% for the year, and lease rates, which are what it costs to borrow physical silver, went much higher.

December 2025: through $60, then near $84

The run did not stop at the old record, and silver cleared $60 and then pushed toward $83 by late December, finishing 2025 with an average price 42% above the year before.

January 2026: triple digits, then the peak

Silver passed $95, then $100, then topped at $121.67 on January 29, 2026. It represented the steepest rise in the metal’s modern history.

What happened after

The peak did not hold, and silver slipped through February and March. By early April 2026, silver was trading in the mid-$70s, and has drifted lower since. By September, it reached the mid-$60s.

That round trip is worth thinking about. It shows that silver more than doubled in roughly four months, and then gave back roughly 45% over the following eight. Both moves are normal for this metal, which is smaller and less liquid than gold and so tends to move harder in both directions.

Why Silver Hit an All-Time High

No single cause explains the run, since four separate pressures stacked up at the same time.

The market ran short of metal

Silver has now run a supply deficit for five straight years. The Silver Institute expects a sixth in 2026, at 67 million ounces (https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/";>The Silver Institute).

A deficit means the world uses more silver each year than miners and recyclers supply, and the gap gets filled out of existing stockpiles. Those stockpiles are not endless.

Industry consumes silver and rarely gets it back

Silver is not only money, it is a working industrial metal used in solar panels, electronics, brazing alloys, and medical equipment. Industrial use ran to 657.4 million ounces in 2025.

Most of that silver is gone for good. Thin films and tiny electrical contacts are rarely worth recovering for their silver content.

This defines one of the key differences between gold and silver. People tend to hoard gold and pass it down to the next generation. Silver gets used up in industrial applications.

Mine supply cannot respond quickly

Silver mine output rose 3% in 2025. The figure reached 846.6 million ounces, which is a modest response to a price that more than doubled.

The reason for the relatively low mine supply growth is structural. Most silver comes out of the ground as a byproduct of other metal mining operations. Usually, the central metals are copper, lead, and zinc. Those mines are built around the economics of the main metal. As a result, a high silver price does little to change how much they produce.

Investors came back

Physical investment demand is forecast to jump 20% in 2026, to 227 million ounces, which would be a three-year high. Recycling is expected to top 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012, as high prices pull old metal out of drawers and safes.

Silver's Previous Records: 1980 and 2011

Neither of the earlier silver peaks looked anything like the January 2026 silver peak.

1980: an attempt to corner the market

The 1980 silver spike had little to do with ordinary supply and demand. Instead, it revolved almost entirely around two brothers.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission later charged that Nelson Bunker Hunt, William Herbert Hunt, and others "manipulated and attempted to manipulate silver prices in 1979 and 1980" (https://www.cftc.gov/About/HistoryoftheCFTC/history_1980s.html";>CFTC). The agency sent Congress a report on the episode in 1981 and closed its case in 1985.

Once the corner broke, the price collapsed and fell below $11 within a year. It took 45 years for silver to reach a new high.

2011: close, but no record

Silver ran to just a little less than $50 in April 2011. Reports differ on whether it topped the 1980 level or not, and the answer ultimately depends on which price series you use.

Either way, the 2011 run faded quickly. Over the following two years, silver went on to lose more than half its value.

Why 2026 was different

The 1980 peak came out of one concentrated trade. The 2026 peak came out of a market that was short of metal. Five years of deficits were behind that market, alongside industrial buyers who had no real substitute.

That broader base does not make the price safe. The 45% fall from its high demonstrates the instability. However, it does demonstrate the cause was structural rather than the work of a few accounts. The supply gap has not closed since then.

The Gold-Silver Ratio at the Record High

The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. It serves as a quick read on whether silver looks cheap or expensive next to gold.

At silver’s peak the ratio compressed sharply. Gold was trading near $4,986 an ounce in the week silver reached $121.67, which puts the ratio close to 41.

Today the picture has reversed. Gold trades near $4,354 and silver $66, for a ratio of about 66. That means silver has given back most of its gain relative to gold even though gold sits below its own high.

Over the past century the ratio has run between 40 and 90 most of the time. A reading near 41 sits at the low end of that band, while 66 sits in the middle. You can compare both metals side by side on our https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts";>precious metals charts.

What Your Silver Was Worth at the Peak

Were you holding silver on January 29, 2026? The table below shows what the metal in it was worth. The right column shows the same holding at today's price of about $66.31.

What you hold	Silver content	Melt value at $121.67	Melt value at $66.31
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>1 oz American Silver Eagle	1.000 oz	$121.67	$66.31
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/rounds/1-oz-silver-rounds";>1 oz silver round	1.000 oz	$121.67	$66.31
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/10-oz-silver-bars";>10 oz silver bar	10.00 oz	$1,216.70	$663.10
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/100-oz-silver-bars";>100 oz silver bar	100.0 oz	$12,167.00	$6,631.00
$1 face value, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver";>pre-1965 90% silver	0.715 oz	$86.99	$47.41
One 90% silver half dollar	0.3575 oz	$43.50	$23.71
One 90% silver quarter	0.1788 oz	$21.75	$11.85
One https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver/90-silver-dimes";>90% silver dime	0.0715 oz	$8.70	$4.74

The 0.715 figure is the standard silver content for $1 of face value in pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and half dollars, and it is the number used to price junk silver. Melt value covers the metal alone, so it is not a buy or sell price, since both of those carry a premium or a spread.

What the Physical Market Looked Like at the Peak

Spot price is one thing, but getting hold of actual metal is another. During the January 2026 run, those two came apart.

Premiums on silver products widened. Heightened demand meant that wait times became more extensive as companies struggled to meet delivery needs. Some popular products ran out for stretches of time.

That is a normal feature of a physical squeeze. The Silver Institute’s note on rising lease rates describes the same pressure on the wholesale side.

Premiums have since come back to earth. At the time of writing, 100 oz silver bars start around $7,179 on our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/100-oz-silver-bars";>100 oz silver bar page, which is a premium of roughly 8% over melt with spot near $66.31.

The practical lesson is that a price chart shows a wholesale number. What you pay depends on whether metal is available at all, and in a fast market the two can diverge. If you want to understand how premiums work before buying, compare products across our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver";>silver bullion selection.

Will Silver Set a New All-Time High?

This is the question everyone asks. The honest answer is that nobody knows. Anyone who tells you otherwise is guessing.

What we can do instead is lay out the conditions that would need to be in place. Money Metals does not forecast prices, and none of what follows is investment advice.

What would push silver back toward $121

Silver would need the supply gap to stay open or widen, industrial demand to hold up, and investment demand to return at the size it reached in late 2025.

The Silver Institute’s 2026 outlook cuts both ways on this. It forecasts a sixth consecutive deficit, which supports the price, but it also forecasts industrial use falling about 2% to a four-year low. That is because solar makers use less silver per panel and substitute other materials where they can.

What about $150, $200, or $300 an ounce?

Start from the January 2026 peak of $121.67. Silver would need to rise about 23% from there to reach $150, about 64% to reach $200, and about 150% to reach $300. The inflation-adjusted 1980 record of roughly $213 sits between the second and third of those.

Those figures are arithmetic on today’s numbers rather than predictions, and prices at those levels would require market conditions that do not exist right now.

What history suggests about the shape of it

Silver’s past record runs share one trait: they were steep, and they did not last. The 1980 peak collapsed within a year, the 2011 peak gave back more than half over two years. The 2026 peak has so far followed the same pattern.

A sustained stretch above a prior record would be new behavior for this metal. That is not to say that it cannot happen, but it does show that the track record for it is thin.

Silver Price Highs by Decade

Decade	Notable high	Context
1970s	Rose from under $2 to above $30	Inflation and the end of the gold standard
1980s	About $49.45 in January 1980, then a long slide	The corner broke and the price collapsed
1990s	Mostly in the $4 to $7 range	Quiet years driven by industrial demand
2000s	Near $21 in 2008	Commodity boom, then the financial crisis
2010s	Just under $50 in April 2011	Debt fears and heavy investor buying
2020s	$121.67 on January 29, 2026	Deficits, industry demand, a supply squeeze

Exact annual highs and lows going back to 1969 are listed on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price-history";>silver price history page.

How to Buy Silver

Silver bullion comes in a few standard forms, and the form you choose changes what you pay over spot.

https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/rounds";>Silver rounds are private-mint pieces that usually carry the lowest premium per ounce.
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars";>Silver bars get cheaper per ounce as they get larger, so a 100 oz bar costs less over spot than ten 1 oz bars.
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins";>Silver coins are government-minted legal tender, which means higher premiums and broader recognition.
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver";>Junk silver is pre-1965 US coinage, priced off its 90% silver content.

Silver bullion can also be held inside a retirement account, and our https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/iras";>precious metals IRA page explains how that works. If you want to sell metal you already own, our https://www.moneymetals.com/sell-to-us";>sell to us page shows current bids.

Frequently Asked Questions

Silver’s all-time high is $121.67 per troy ounce, reached on January 29, 2026. That is a record in dollar terms, though after adjusting for inflation the January 1980 peak was higher.

Silver hit its all-time high on January 29, 2026. Silver had cleared $50 in October 2025, passed $83 in December, and topped $100 in January before reaching its peak.

About $49.45 an ounce in January 1980. Silver came close again in April 2011 with a price that fell just below $50. However, it did not clearly surpass the 1980 level.

No. The $121.67 record is in plain dollars, and adjusted for inflation the 1980 peak works out to roughly $213 an ounce in 2026 money. That continues to be the real record.

Five consecutive years of supply deficit, steady industrial demand, a squeeze in the physical market in October 2025, and a surge in investor buying. The Silver Institute documents both the deficit and the squeeze.

Silver traded near $66 an ounce in mid-September 2026, roughly 45% below the January 2026 record. The https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price page carries the current figure.

Nobody can say. Silver traded above $100 for part of January 2026, so the level is not unprecedented, but whether it returns depends on supply, industrial demand, and investor buying. This is not a forecast or investment advice.

Why Is Silver Going Down - Fed Rate Hikes, a Strong Dollar, and Forced Futures Selling - Past Crash Recoveries, the Deficit Paradox, and Signs of a Bottom - Money Metals

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Last updated: September 17, 2026

Silver is going down because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, the U.S. dollar is firm, and traders who bought with borrowed money are selling. Taken together, those factors can have a significant pull against silver.

That’s not all. The silver market has also been impacted by fears regarding industrial demand and growing fears surrounding AI data centers.

The drop has been steep. Silver hit a record https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>$121.62 an ounce on January 29, 2026. On September 16, it closed near https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>$62.82. That is a loss of about 48%.

This guide will do more than discuss general market information. You will see how past silver crashes played out. You will see how physical silver performs differently than “paper” silver. Finally, you will find signals that can hint a bottoming out is coming.

What's Pushing Silver Down Right Now (Updated September 17, 2026)

	Price or level	Source
Silver all-time high (Jan. 29, 2026)	$121.62	https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>Investing News
Silver on July 31, 2026	About $58	https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/silver-down-big-peak-now-142500035.html";>Yahoo Finance
Silver on Sept. 16, 2026	$62.82	https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco
Drop from record high	About 48%	Calculated
Gold on Sept. 16, 2026	$4,261.80	https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco

The big story this week is the Fed. On September 16, the Fed raised its key rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Its own forecast showed that https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike by the end of the year. Silver gave up its early gains after the news.

Inflation is the reason for the hike. Consumer prices rose https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-fed-rate-hike-means-for-gold-silver-prices-september-2026/";>3.4% over the past year, well above the Fed's 2% target.

Silver is falling harder than gold. Gold has dropped from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-fed-rate-hike-means-for-gold-silver-prices-september-2026/";>more than $5,500 early this year to about $4,260. That is roughly a 23% loss. Silver has lost about twice as much.

Bottom line: As long as the Fed keeps raising rates, silver will likely stay under pressure. Track the live price on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price chart.

Why Is Silver Going Down? 6 Forces Causing the Fall

Most articles list these reasons and stop. Here, you will also learn how each one works and how to track it yourself.

1. Rising Interest Rates and Real Yields

When interest rates rise, it increases the opportunity cost for owning silver. Silver does not generate interest, so many investors prefer to invest in assets that benefit from the rate rise. That usually means cash and bonds.

However, the crucial factor is the real yield. The real yield is what is left of the interest rate once you factor in inflation. If a bond pays 5% while inflation sits at 3.4%, that means the real yield is about 1.6%. When real yields rise, silver usually struggles. When they fall, the silver market typically improves.

Right now, the 10-year Treasury yield sits near https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>5.00%. That is a strong pull away from metals.

What to watch: The https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10";>10-year TIPS yield on FRED. It tracks real yields each day.

2. A Stronger U.S. Dollar

Silver is priced in dollars globally. When the dollar gains strength, it results in silver costing more for buyers using other currencies. Those investors buy less silver, which then causes the price to fall.

For these reasons, silver and the dollar typically have an inverse relationship. When the dollar grows, silver declines. On September 16, the U.S. Dollar Index stood at https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>100.25 as the Fed turned more aggressive.

What to watch: The https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/";>U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A reading above 100 is a headwind for silver.

3. Forced Selling in the Futures Market

This is a crucial factor that too few sources take the time to explain.

Most silver trading takes place outside the physical silver market. Traders only put up a small deposit, called the margin, to control a large amount of silver. The exchange determines how big that deposit must be.

Here is how a margin hike forces selling:

Silver prices swing wildly.
The exchange raises the margin to protect itself.
Traders must add cash right away.
Traders who can't pay are forced to sell.
That selling pushes prices lower, which triggers more selling.

A simple example: Let’s say a trader controls $100,000 worth of silver futures at an 11% initial margin. That would amount to $11,000 on deposit. If the exchange raises that rate to 12.1%, the trader must now hold $12,100.

If they cannot add that $1,100, then their broker will sell the position. That will take place regardless of what the trader thinks silver is worth. Now picture the same position after margins jump to 18%. The $11,000 deposit becomes $18,000, and the trader has to find another $7,000.

This happened in 2026. Silver hit its record on January 29. One day prior, CME Group https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/what-are-margin-requirements-why-cmes-hike-triggered-a-silver-crash/";>raised margins on high-risk silver accounts. The initial rate went from 11% to 12.1% after the close on January 28. More hikes followed as the price broke.

An advisory dated January 30 lists the standard initial rate at 15%, effective February 2. By February 6, silver futures required 18% initial margin. That was up from 11% two weeks earlier. Silver had already crashed from its record to https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>around $71 by February 2. Analysts at https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-are-gold-silver-plunging";>Morningstar said speculators being forced out caused that crash. Supply and demand had not changed.

What to watch: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.margins.html";>CME's silver margin page. A margin hike during a volatile week is a warning sign.

4. Worries About Industrial Demand

Unlike gold, a lot of silver demand comes from the industrial sphere. People often underestimate just how vital silver is for so much industrial equipment. It goes into solar panels, electronics, cars, and data center hardware. So when the economy slows, silver demand can drop.

Two worries stand out in 2026:

AI data centers. Silver's rally was fed by hopes for AI spending. By summer, investors began to doubt that spending would pay off. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/silver-down-big-peak-now-142500035.html";>Yahoo Finance tied part of silver's drop to this "nervousness about AI data centers."
Solar thrifting. Solar makers keep finding ways to use less silver in each panel. The https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/";>Silver Institute expects industrial use of silver to fall 2% this year, to about 650 million ounces. That would be a four-year low.

Keep this in perspective. A 2% dip in demand is small. Silver fell about 48%. Fear about demand has done far more damage to silver value than the actual drop in demand.

5. Investors Selling Silver ETFs

ETF stands for exchange-traded funds. These funds hold metal on their shareholders’ behalf. That means when investors sell ETF shares, the fund may also sell silver. Heavy ETF selling https://invezz.com/za/news/2026/04/29/silver-price-at-risk-as-slv-etf-outflows-jump-ahead-of-fomc-decision/";>showed up several times in 2026, including before Fed meetings.

What to watch: The ounces held by the https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund";>iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Rising holdings suggest investors are coming back. Learn how ETFs differ from owning metal in our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/silver-etf-vs-physical-silver";>silver ETFs vs. physical silver.

6. Profit-Taking After a Huge Rally

Silver was trading https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/what-are-margin-requirements-why-cmes-hike-triggered-a-silver-crash/";>near $30 an ounce in 2025. In January 2026, the price of silver topped $120, though exact figures vary slightly. Regardless of the final figure, that period saw the price rise to about four times its starting level.

Moves that fast attract many short-term traders. When the trend breaks, many of them sell at once in an attempt to lock in their gains. Typically, sharp pullbacks follow sharp rallies.

Why Silver Falls Harder Than Gold

Silver and gold typically correlate to one another. However, while the two metals move in the same direction, silver swings much more. Our guide on https://www.moneymetals.com/price/do-gold-and-silver-prices-move-together";>whether gold and silver prices move together covers this in depth.

There are three main reasons:

Silver is a smaller market. Less money flows through it, so big trades move the price more.
Silver depends on industry. Gold is mostly held as money. Silver is mostly used in products, so it reacts to economic fears.
Silver attracts more speculators. Its lower price and big swings draw short-term traders.

Here is how the two metals compare in recent drops:

Period	Silver drop	Gold drop
2026 peak to Sept. 16, 2026	About 48%	About 23%
Sources	https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>Investing News, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco	https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-fed-rate-hike-means-for-gold-silver-prices-september-2026/";>CBS News, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco

What the Gold-Silver Ratio Says

The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. As of the September 16 market close, the ratio is roughly 68. The gold price was $4,261.80 divided by $62.82.

A high ratio means silver is cheap compared to gold. In April 2025, the ratio was https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/21/gold-silver-ratio-over-103-indicates-silver-is-on-sale-003999";>above 103. Silver then went on a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/25/how-the-gold-silver-ratio-predicted-silvers-surge-004222";>historic run. Today's ratio is much lower, so silver isn't at an extreme bargain compared to gold, even after the drop. Learn more in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>What Is the Gold-Silver Ratio?

The Paradox: Record Supply Deficits, Falling Prices

Here's the puzzle. The world is using more silver than it produces. Yet the price keeps falling. How does that work?

The https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/";>Silver Institute expects a 67 million ounce deficit in 2026. That would be the sixth year in a row of shortfalls.

Three things explain the gap between supply and price:

1. Futures trading dwarfs physical metal. Futures markets play a major role in discovering the spot price. Far more silver trades on paper each day than changes hands as real bars and coins in OTC markets. So in the short run, traders' moves matter more than mine output.

2. There is a stockpile. Years of mining have left silver sitting in vaults all around the world. A yearly deficit draws down that stockpile, but it takes time to run low.

3. Deficits work slowly. A shortage shows up in the price only when stockpiles get tight. Watch for two signs of that. The first is rising lease rates, which is the cost to borrow silver. The second is backwardation. That is when silver for delivery today costs more than silver for delivery later.

The takeaway: a deficit supports silver over years, not weeks. It won't stop a price drop driven by rates and forced selling.

Paper Silver vs. Physical Silver: What Buyers Actually Pay

The silver price you see reported is the spot price. It comes from a constantly fluctuating interplay between the OTC markets and futures markets. But you can't buy a coin at spot. Every physical product costs spot plus a premium. The premium covers minting, shipping, and dealer costs.

During a sharp drop, premiums often hold steady or even rise. That's because many buyers see a sale and rush in, while mints and wholesalers can't ramp up supply overnight.

Tips for buying during a drop:

Compare the premium, not just the price. A low spot price means little if the premium is high.
Know the buyback spread. That is the gap between what you pay and what a dealer will pay you back. Smaller is better.
Choose the right product. Generic https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/rounds";>silver rounds and larger https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars";>silver bars often cost less over spot than government coins like the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>American Silver Eagle.

How Past Silver Crashes Played Out

Silver has crashed many times before. History shows two things. Drops can be brutal, and recovery times vary a lot.

Crash	Peak	Low	Drop	Time to regain peak
1980 (Hunt Brothers)	$49.45 (Jan. 1980)	$10.80 (Mar. 1980)	About 78%	About 45 years (Oct. 2025)
2008 (financial crisis)	$20.64 (Mar. 2008)	$8.94 (Oct. 2008)	About 57%	About 2.5 years
2011 to 2015 (QE peak)	$48.46 (Apr. 2011)	$13.74 (2015)	About 72%	About 14 years (Oct. 2025)
2020 (COVID-19)	About $18.90 (Feb. 2020)	$12.12 (Mar. 2020)	About 36%	About 4 months
2026 (so far)	$121.62 (Jan. 2026)	$57.43 (June 24, 2026)	About 53%	Not yet

Sources: 1980 peak from https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price-history";>Money Metals silver price history; 1980 low from https://metalcharts.org/silver-price-history";>MetalCharts; 2008, 2011, 2015, and 2020 figures from https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/silver-prices/20-year/";>JM Bullion; 2026 figures from https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>Investing News and https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco. Recovery times are estimates.

What history teaches:

Crashes driven by panic can recover fast. The 2020 crash was a liquidity panic. Silver bounced back within months.
Crashes driven by rising rates can last years. After 2011, the Fed moved toward tighter policy and the dollar rose. Silver took years to find a bottom.
2026 has features of both. The January crash was a forced-selling panic. The drop since then has been driven by rate hikes. That second part looks more like 2011 to 2015 than 2020.

No one can promise when silver will recover. Anyone who gives you an exact date is guessing.

Is Silver Going to Keep Going Down? Signs a Bottom May Be Forming

No single signal can call a bottom. But when several of these line up, a turn becomes more likely.

Signal	What it means	Where to check
Large speculators cut their bets to low levels	Most forced sellers are already out	https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm";>CFTC Commitments of Traders report
Silver ETF holdings stop falling	Investors are done exiting	https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund";>iShares SLV holdings
Gold-silver ratio climbs toward 90 or higher	Silver is cheap compared to gold	https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts";>Money Metals charts
Premiums and retail demand rise while spot stays weak	Physical buyers see value	Dealer premium pages
Real yields peak and start to fall	The main headwind is fading	https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10";>FRED 10-year TIPS yield
The Fed signals it is done hiking	Rate pressure is ending	Fed statements and dot plot
Exchange margins stop rising	Forced selling is easing	https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.margins.html";>CME silver margins

As of mid-September 2026, the Fed signal points the wrong way. Most officials still expect https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>another hike this year.

Three Scenarios for Silver From Here

Scenario 1: Silver keeps falling. This could happen if inflation stays high and the Fed hikes again. A recession that cuts factory demand would add pressure. So would more doubts about AI spending.

Scenario 2: Silver moves sideways. The Fed may hike once more and then pause. Silver could trade in a range for a while. Forced sellers would finish exiting, and the deficit would slowly tighten supply.

Scenario 3: Silver recovers. A clear signal that the Fed is done, a weaker dollar, or a geopolitical shock could spark a rebound. Tight physical supply could then add fuel.

For outside views, big banks publish regular forecasts. See https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices";>J.P. Morgan's silver outlook for one example. Treat any forecast as a guess, not a promise.

Should You Buy Silver When the Price Is Falling?

That depends on your goals and how long you plan to hold. Silver is a long-term store of value for many people. It isn't a quick trade for most.

A few approaches can help:

Dollar-cost averaging. Buy a set dollar amount on a regular schedule. You buy more ounces when prices are low and fewer when they are high. You don't have to guess the bottom. Our https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-investing/gold-silver-savings";>monthly precious metals program makes this automatic.
Buying in stages. Split your planned purchase into three or four parts. Buy one part now and the rest over the coming months.
Holding for retirement. Some investors add silver to a https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/iras";>precious metals IRA.

Common mistakes to avoid:

Using borrowed money. Leverage is what turned the 2026 drop into a crash.
Panic selling. Selling after a big drop locks in losses.
Overpaying on premiums. Compare total cost per ounce.
Reacting to headlines. One Fed meeting doesn't set the long-term price.

New to silver? Start with our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/buying-silver-for-beginners";>buying silver for beginners or read https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-silver";>Is Now a Good Time to Buy Silver?

This article is for education only. It is not financial advice. Talk with a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Silver's daily moves are mostly driven by interest rate news, the U.S. dollar, and futures trading. In mid-September 2026, silver fell after the Fed https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>raised rates and signaled more hikes. Check the https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>live silver price for today's move.

Silver has recovered from every major past crash. But the timing has ranged from months to decades. The 2020 crash recovered in about four months. The 2011 peak took about 14 years to reclaim. A pause in Fed rate hikes would likely be the first sign of a lasting rebound.

No one can time the bottom. Many long-term buyers use dollar-cost averaging to spread purchases out over time. Silver is about 48% below its January 2026 record, which some buyers see as a chance to add ounces. Read our full guide: https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-silver";>Is Now a Good Time to Buy Silver?

Big one-day drops usually come from forced selling in futures markets. When exchanges raise margin rules, traders who can't add cash must sell. After silver hit its record in January 2026, it fell to https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>around $71 within days as leveraged traders were pushed out.

It's possible over the long term, but no one knows. Silver would need to rise more than three times from today’s price. It has never traded above https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>$121.62. A move to $200 would likely need falling real rates, a weaker dollar, and tight physical supply all at once.

Many silver investors believe large traders influence prices through futures markets. What is clear is that futures trading and leverage can push prices away from real supply and demand. That effect is strongest in the short run. Over the long run, supply and demand still matter.

The Bottom Line

Silver is down about 48% from its January 2026 record. Rising rates, a firm dollar, and forced selling are the main causes.
Silver falls harder than gold because it is a smaller market tied to industry and speculation.
History shows silver recovers, but not on a schedule. Watch the Fed, real yields, and futures positioning for signs of a turn.

Ready to take advantage of lower prices? https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>Check today's silver price, then https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver";>shop low-premium silver bullion.

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