Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

What an Awful Jobs Report! And Don't Skip Over the Revisions

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

What an awful jobs report.

And I’m not even talking about the contraction of -23,000 jobs in July.

I’m talking about the revisions.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the economy shed 23,000 jobs last month.

Economists were expecting 83,000 new jobs in July.

Oops.

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Interestingly, despite job losses, the unemployment rate clicked down to 4.1 percent. That’s because the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4 percent, the lowest level since the pandemic.

But in my opinion, the big story is the revisions.

They were so extreme, even the mainstream media reported on them. Typically, we never hear about the revisions (and they happen constantly).

Remember how we got those "strong" job reports in May and June?

Well, May’s job numbers were revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000. The June job data was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. Job growth for May and June combined was -103,000 lower than initially reported.

When you add it all up, the total number of jobs “created” in May and June was 103,000 lower than initially reported.

Downward Revisions Are Par for the Course

These downward revisions should come as no surprise. It happens with virtually every BLS report.

In January, the bureau made its end-of-the-year adjustment to the “birth-death model” it uses to determine job growth. That erased nearly half a million jobs from the economy. To be precise, the BLS wiped out 403,000 jobs with its model revision (At the same time, it revised December’s report down from 50,000 to 48,000 jobs).

With that revision, the U.S. economy only generated an average of 15,000 jobs per month in 2025. You probably don’t have that impression if you just saw the headlines as the BLS announced its employment data each month.

If it sounds like the agency is just making stuff up, well…

In fact, downward revisions appear to be standard operating procedure for the BLS. The agency erased nearly 1 million (911,000) jobs that it initially claimed were created between March 2024 and June 2025.

In 2023, job numbers were revised down in 10 of the 12 months.

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To be fair, compiling employment data is no simple task. Revisions should be expected. But why do the updates almost always remove jobs from the economy? One would think you’d see upward revisions nearly as often as downward, right?

Nope.

Between 2003 and 2024, the final annual BLS numbers were lower than the initial report 14 times compared to seven upward revisions.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/yearly-job-revisions.png"; width="700" height="382" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

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It's notable that markets typically only react to the initial numbers. You almost never see markets tank because the BLS erased a bunch of jobs from the economy with a few clicks of its calculator. The revisions happen quietly in the back alleys. Nobody pays any attention to them. That creates the illusion that the labor market is much stronger than it is.

It goes something like this:

This month, the government reports good news. Everybody celebrates. Markets move. The following month, the government quietly revises everything downward and reports that the good news was really bad news.

And nobody pays attention.

This month is a notable exception to that rule. We’re seeing the revisions emphasized. I guess you can’t hide under the cover of darkness forever.

This wouldn’t matter nearly as much if central bankers and government officials didn’t lean on this data to make decisions. But they do. And if the data is this unreliable, what does that tell you about the decisions based on this data?

Let’s be honest - when you look at the history, one’s got to wonder why anybody takes these numbers at face value.

No! We're Not Going to Get Rich Mining Asteroid Gold

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

There is an unimaginable fortune floating between 150 and 400 million miles from Earth.

It’s an asteroid named Psyche.

Some people think we can solve global poverty by mining this space gold and other precious metals.

We can’t.

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Scientists believe this 144-mile-long floating space rock contains large amounts of metal, including gold and platinum. They estimate the asteroid could contain $10 quintillion worth of precious metals.

I don't even know what the number means. To put it into perspective, it would be enough money to pay every person on Earth $1.22 billion.

That would certainly put a dent in global poverty, eh? As a bonus, we wouldn't have to hate billionaires anymore. We'd all be one!

Of course, the amount of gold on Psyche is purely speculation.

https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/16-psyche/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to NASA, “The best analysis indicates that Psyche is likely made of a mixture of rock and metal, with metal composing 30 percent to 60 percent of its volume. The asteroid’s composition has been determined by radar observations and by the measurements of the asteroid’s thermal inertia (how quickly an object gains or re-radiates heat).”

Even without knowing Psyche’s exact composition, it’s fun to speculate about how much gold might be there.

Scientists estimate Psyche's mass is roughly 2.3 × 10¹⁹ kg. Let's say gold constitutes just 10 parts per million (purely speculative); that would amount to about 230 billion metric tonnes of gold. That's roughly a million times more than all the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/31/just-how-much-gold-is-there-004800";>gold mined in human history.

A Fool's Errand

Every so often, people talk about mining Psyche and similar asteroids. It sounds like a great plan. I mean, if there’s that much gold and other precious metals in the asteroid, it certainly seems like something worth looking into, right?

Or maybe not.

From a practical standpoint, we're capable of reaching the asteroid. In fact, NASA launched a mission to Psyche in 2023. The unmanned craft is expected to reach Psyche in 2029.

We also have the ability to dig for gold in space.

However, from an economic standpoint, trying to pull gold out of a space rock is a fool’s errand.

That hasn’t stopped people from trying.

In 2010, Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries combined forces to mine asteroids. They secured some high-profile financing from the likes of Google’s Larry Page and Eric Schmidt.

It wasn’t enough.

Within a decade, the companies had been absorbed by other organizations that had nothing to do with asteroid mining.

As Lachlan Brown, https://spacedaily.com/t-asteroid-mining-gets-sold-as-a-trillion-dollar-gold-rush-but-the-economics-point-the-other-way-hauling-platinum-back-to-earth-would-crash-its-price-so-the-only-prize-that-adds-up-is-mining-water-and/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">writing for Space Daily, put it, it wasn’t that the precious metals weren’t there.

“[The lesson] was that the timelines are long, the capital required is vast, and investors ran out of patience long before anyone reached an asteroid.”

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That isn’t stopping TransAstra Corporation from pursuing intergalactic mining. However, CEO Joel Sercel told CNBC the mining of precious metals on asteroids simply isn’t economically viable.

“If we had to develop a full-scale asteroid mining vehicle today, we would need a few hundred million dollars to do that using commercial processes. It would be difficult to convince the investment community that that’s the right thing to do. In today’s economics and in the economics of the near future, the next few years, it makes no sense to go after precious metals in asteroids. And the reason is the cost of getting to and from the asteroids is so high that it vastly outstrips the value of anything that you’d harness from the asteroids.”

The company will focus on mining water from asteroids to make rocket propellant in space. This would allow rockets to refuel en route and allow rockets to launch from Earth carrying much less heavy fuel.

Of course, technology is advancing daily. Gold mining in space isn’t out of the question in the future.

So, can we count on a future with an unlimited supply of gold and riches for all?

Even if we could, I’ve got bad news.

All of that gold wouldn’t be worth much.

One of the things that makes gold valuable is its scarcity. If somebody drug thousand of tonnes of gold back to Earth, it would be worth about as much as a bag of mulch – if that.

Brown explained why reading basing a business plan on “$10 quintillion” in gold on a space rock is a fool’s errand.

“The first is that the number assumes you could deliver all that metal to Earth at no cost, when the delivery is the entire problem. The second is more fundamental: if you actually did land that much platinum or gold, you would flood the market and collapse the price of the thing you came to sell. The markets for precious metals are small by weight, and they do not have room to absorb asteroid-scale quantities without the value evaporating.”

So, the next time somebody tells you we’re going to eliminate poverty one day by giving everybody on Earth a bunch of space gold, you can explain to them why they’re living in a fantasy world.

As Brown summed it up, “The case for asteroid mining is real, but almost nothing like the version that gets sold.”

Surging Asian Gold Demand Could Signal a "Structural Wealth Shift"

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Asian banks have beefed up their gold product and service offerings in recent months. According to The Banker, this represents “a structural wealth shift in wealth allocation.”

New products and innovations introduced in the Asian gold market run the gamut from investing platforms that offer fractionalized gold investment, to new ETF offerings, to expanded vaulting capacity.

For instance, DBS in Singapore now offers fractionalized gold trading on a retail app. On this platform, investors can purchase tokens backed by as little as 1 gram of gold.

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Meanwhile, HSBC recently announced plans to increase its gold storage capacity in Hong Kong to 200 tonnes. According to official sources, HSBC isn’t alone. Officials say they plan to increase gold storage capacity in the Chinese special administrative region by around 2,000 tonnes over the next three years.

There has also been a major surge in the number of gold-backed ETFs offered in Asia. The region saw the highest https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/06/gold-flows-into-etfs-flipped-positive-in-july-as-investors-buy-the-dip-005117";>ETF gold inflows of any region through the first half of the year, with Asian-based ETFs accumulating over 74 tonnes of gold. With a value of $12 billion, Asian ETF gold inflows set a H1 record.

Perhaps the most significant development in the Asian gold market was the launch of a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/09/hong-kong-launches-gold-settlement-system-to-challenge-western-dominance-005050";>new Hong Kong-based gold clearing and settlement system that could begin to move the center of gold trade from London and the West to China and the East.

Standard Chartered global head of sales and structuring called this “a fundamental structural shift in wealth allocation,” evidenced by rising demand for gold from central banks, institutional investors, and retail consumers.

While the recent run-up in the gold price has contributed to these developments in the Asian gold market, KPMG China head of banking and capital markets in Hong Kong, Jia Ning Song, told The Banker that this buildout isn’t just a response to a temporary bull market.

“Nobody constructs vaulting capacity, clearing memberships and tokenization platforms — multiyear, capital-intensive commitments — to monetize a 12-month rally. The investments now being made in Hong Kong’s gold ecosystem are geared towards conviction in multi-decade demand.”

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Song said nearshoring investments appeal to Asian investors. Setting up local clearing venues allows banks to quote and settle gold during Asian trading hours rather than routing transactions through London and dealing with significant time zone differences.

“As credit risks become more topical, gold’s minimal counterparty risk is proving especially attractive. We anticipate the trend of nearshoring gold holdings into Asia will intensify.”

Song called gold “a fiat hedge” as weakening faith in paper currencies, particularly the dollar, has driven Asian portfolio diversification. He specifically noted the growing levels of global debt, which reached a record of $353 trillion in Q1.

World Gold Council head of Asia-Pacific Shaokai Fan said Asia has the potential to become “a global gold hub.” He said he expects growing demand for vaulting, clearing and settlement in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.

Asia already accounts for about 60 percent of global consumer gold demand. In fact, Western investors largely sat out the bull run last year, only jumping on the bandwagon last fall. When Western investors begin to understand the dynamics driving Asian investors, they may well join the party.

We're already seeing signs that Western investors are starting to follow Asia's lead. Last year, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilsonhttps://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/07/seismic-shift-morgan-stanley-recommends-602020-portfolio-with-20-allocated-to-gold-004389";> suggested a switch to a 60/20/20 strategy, swapping half of the bond portfolio for gold to serve as a “more resilient” inflation hedge.

Given that most Western investors have little to no exposure to gold, even a modest increase in gold allocation could send prices soaring higher.

Gold Price During a Recession - Gold vs. the S&P 500 in Every Recession Since 1971 - The 2008 Margin-Call Drop and Four Forces Driving Gold - Money Metals

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

The https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold price during a recession has usually gone up. In the 1973–75 downturn, gold rose 83% while stocks fell 18%. In 2020, gold finished the year up about 25% higher than it was prior to the COVID lockdowns.

But the record is not perfect. In 2008, gold dropped nearly 30% before it recovered. That drop caught many investors off guard. It also taught a lesson worth knowing.

We will explore how gold has performed in all the major recessions since 1971. By the end, you will understand why gold usually rises when the economy falls … and what really happened in 2008.

Does the Gold Price Go Up During a Recession?

Gold typically goes up during a recession. Gold has risen in six of the seven U.S. recessions since 1971.

There are some caveats to this. First, gold does not rise in every recession. It is also worth noting that it does not rise in a straight line.

Nevertheless, the pattern holds. Investors tend to move money into gold when the economy shrinks.

You may wonder why we're starting the count at 1971. There is a simple answer.

Before that year, the question has no real answer. The U.S. government fixed the gold price at $35 an ounce. The price could not move. President Nixon cut the dollar's tie to gold in August 1971. Only then did https://www.moneymetals.com/price/who-sets-the-gold-price";>the market set the price.

This is a crucial factor to note, even if it may sound unnecessarily technical. Other sites claim gold gained in six of eight recessions since 1970. That count includes the 1969–70 downturn, when the law still froze the price. In that instance, gold did not gain in any real sense. It just sat where the government put it.

One more note on the numbers. Different sources measure different windows. Some track gold from the first day of a recession to the last. Others measure six months before the start to six months after the end. The window changes the result. We use the official dates from the https://www.nber.org/";>National Bureau of Economic Research.

So the honest record starts in 1971. Since then, gold has gained during recessions more often than not. Some gains were large, while others were more modest. Notably, 2008 saw a significant collapse in the gold price before it rose again.

The next section shows the numbers for each recession, side by side with stocks.

Gold Prices in Every Recession Since 1971

Here is gold's price in each U.S. recession since 1971. We use the official start and end dates from the National Bureau of Economic Research. We measure gold from the first month to the last. No cherry-picked windows.

Gold vs. the S&P 500 in every U.S. recession since 1971

Recession (NBER)	Gold at start	Gold at end	Gold change	S&P 500 change
Nov 1973–Mar 1975	$97	$178	+83%	−18%
Jan 1980–Jul 1980	$675	$614	−9%	+13%
Jul 1981–Nov 1982	$409	$415	+1%	+7%
Jul 1990–Mar 1991	$362	$364	+1%	+3%
Mar 2001–Nov 2001	$263	$276	+5%	−4%
Dec 2007–Jun 2009	$803	$946	+18%	−36%
Feb 2020–Apr 2020	$1,597	$1,683	+5%	−10%

Recession start and end dates are the official peak and trough months published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Gold prices are the https://www.moneymetals.com/price/who-sets-the-gold-price";>London fix monthly average for those months. Prices are nominal and not adjusted for inflation. Past performance does not predict future results.

What 2008 Actually Teaches Investors

Gold peaked near $1,000 an ounce in March 2008. Then it slid down throughout much of the spring and summer. By mid-September, days after Lehman Brothers collapsed, gold traded at $692.50.

That represented a drop of about 30 percent from the peak. Stocks were falling hard at the same time. For a few weeks, gold looked as though it had failed at the one job people expected it to perform.

Then it turned around. Gold recovered most of its losses before the year closed. It crossed $1,000 again in early 2009 while stocks continued to decline. By September 2011, gold traded above $1,900.

So why did gold fall in the middle of a panic?

The answer is margin calls, not lost faith in gold. When markets crash, investors who borrowed to buy get a call from their broker. They have to raise cash within days. They cannot sell what no one wants to buy.

So they sell what they can, and gold sells easily. Funds dumped gold in the fall of 2008 to cover losses somewhere else entirely.

That distinction matters. A forced sale is not a judgment on an asset. It is a cash problem at a firm that happens to own it.

Two lessons come out of this.

First, gold's worst stretch in 2008 lasted weeks, not years. Anyone who sold near the bottom locked in the loss. Anyone who waited watched it reverse.

Second, plan on seeing it again. The same mechanism is likely to repeat in the next severe crisis. A sharp early drop in gold is a normal feature of a liquidity panic. It is not proof that the case for gold has broken.

Why Gold Tends to Rise When the Economy Contracts

We have shown what happens to gold in a recession by using historical data. Now, let's talk about why these trends play out. Four forces do most of the work in changing gold's price, and they do not always pull in the same direction.

Safe-Haven Demand

When stocks fall, money looks for shelter. Gold provides something that many other financial assets cannot: no counterparty risk.

Stocks can fall drastically if a company fails. Something that was once worth hundreds or thousands could be worth nothing in a single bad turn. Likewise, a bond can default if the borrower cannot pay. Bank deposits depend upon the bank.

Gold, on the other hand, is simply gold. Its value is intrinsic, and it does not rely on anyone's promise to retain that value. That's why many investors buy gold in times of economic uncertainty.

Falling Interest Rates and Real Yields

This is the strongest driver, and it works like a seesaw.

Unlike stocks, bonds, or bank deposits, gold does not pay interest. Spending money on gold requires you to give up funds that could generate yields if invested elsewhere.

However, central banks almost always cut rates during a recession. What matters in these instances is the real rate, which is the interest rate you actually gain after inflation. When real rates drop, the https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-spot-price-vs-futures";>cost of holding gold drops too.

In that scenario, gold usually rises. The reverse also holds. In 1980 and 1981, gold fell as real rates soared.

Currency Debasement and Stimulus

Recessions bring increased spending, and it comes from several fronts. Governments send checks. Central banks buy bonds and expand the money supply.

The trouble is that more dollars chase the same goods. Each dollar buys a little less because of the decline.

Gold works differently. Mine supply grows by only one to two percent a year. No one can print more gold like they can paper money. That gap is why gold and inflation tend to move together over long periods.

Central Bank Buying

This force is relatively new in the history of gold. For most of the 1990s, central banks were net sellers of gold, rather than buyers.

This trend changed in 2010. That year, they transitioned to being steady net buyers of gold. In recent years, central bank gold buying has hit record levels. In 2025 alone, central banks bought a total of https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>863.3 metric tons of gold. That figure was down 21% from 2024.

That demand does not switch off during economic downturns. This is a significant development, as it gives gold a floor that did not exist in previous recessions.

These four forces typically work together. Sometimes, they play against each other. In 1980, high real rates beat safe-haven demand and gold fell. In 2020, every force pushed the same way and gold set records. Reading which force is strongest tells you more than the word recession does.

Gold vs. Stocks and Other Recession Assets

No asset wins every recession. However, gold has done fairly well when compared to the usual alternatives.

Stocks are the most obvious example. These fall in most economic downturns, as demonstrated in the table above. There, the data records the S&P 500 dropping in four of the seven recessions since 1971. Over long stretches, stocks have beaten gold. However, their worst losses tend to occur at the worst moments, when jobs and salaries are also at risk.

Bonds are gold's toughest competitor. Rate cuts push bond prices up, and Treasuries held their value well in 2008. Bonds have one clear weakness. They lose ground when inflation runs high. You can see that trend borne out in the 1970s and in 2022.

Cash often feels safe and steady because it is a stable, legal tender asset. However, the catch for cash is purchasing power. A dollar held through a decade of inflation buys noticeably less at the end of it.

Real estate is slow to sell. In 2007, it was also the source of the crisis rather than a shelter from it.

Gold has a real drawback worth naming. It pays no dividend, no interest, and no rent. You can only gain if the price rises. However, in exchange, you hold an asset that cannot default and does not depend on anyone else keeping a promise.

So what is the best investment during a recession? There is not a single answer. The type of downturn plays a major role in this decision. Bonds tend to do well when inflation is falling. Gold tends to do well when it is not.

Mining stocks are a separate question. They track gold loosely, but they also carry company risk that physical metal does not. They can have exponentially higher growth, but the downside is that they can also have exponentially sharper falls. Experienced investors may choose to invest in mining stocks, but newcomers should strongly consider consulting a financial advisor beforehand.

What This Means for Investors Today

No one knows when the next recession will start. History is an unpredictable affair, and economies do not rise and fall on a clear schedule. However, the data above demonstrates a few key principles.

Timing has usually mattered more than a recession itself. Most of gold's recession gains went to people who already owned gold. Buying it after the recession headline arrives usually means paying more for the metal. https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-premium";>Gold premiums over spot tend to widen in cases of demand spikes, so the total cost rises twice.

The 1980 lesson continues to hold. Gold has reached significant highs in recent years, and that higher starting price changes the math. It does not rule out further gains. However, it does mean that reaching further gains can be significantly more challenging.

The form of gold you hold matters too. Fund and futures track the gold price, but they still depend on a counterparty. Much of gold's recession case rests on the fact that physical metal does not. If that is the reason for owning gold, the type of ownership is part of the reason.

Steady buying removes the timing problem. Buying a fixed dollar amount each month means you buy more ounces when prices dip and fewer when they climb. You never have to guess the top or the bottom.

None of this is a forecast, and none of it is investment advice. It is what the last seven recessions show. What you do with it depends on your own situation, your time frame, and what the rest of your savings look like.

Frequently Asked Questions

Gold usually goes up during a recession, but it is not always the case. Gold rose in most U.S. recessions since 1971 and fell during the 1980 downturn. The outcome depends on real interest rates, inflation, and how severe the crisis becomes. A recession by itself does not guarantee a higher gold price.

Gold peaked near $1,000 in March 2008, then fell to about $692 after Lehman Brothers collapsed that September. It ended the year close to where it started and passed $1,900 by 2011. The drop occurred because of a cash squeeze, not a failure of gold.

Gold has had sharp drops inside recessions, but no lasting crash. The 2008 slide of roughly 30 percent is the clearest case, and it reversed within months. Forced selling drives these dips. Investors facing margin calls sell whatever they can, and gold is easy to sell.

Gold and stocks often move apart, which is why many investors hold both. In 2008, stocks lost more than a third of their value while gold gained. In the first days of a crash, though, gold can fall too as traders scramble for cash. The gap tends to open later.

Gold averaged about $604 an ounce in 2006. That $10,000 would have bought roughly 16.5 ounces. Assuming the closing spot price of July 2026, which came in at $4,042.67, those ounces would be worth about $66,700. That is close to seven times the original amount, before storage or dealer costs.

That is a personal decision, and this is not investment advice. What the record shows is that most recession gains went to people who already held gold. Premiums over spot also tend to rise when demand spikes. Waiting for the headlines has usually meant paying more for the same ounce.

Conclusion

Gold has risen in most U.S. recessions since 1971, but not in all of them. The 1980 downturn showed that a high starting price can cap the upside.

The 2008 panic showed that gold can fall hard before it recovers. Neither case broke the longer pattern. Real interest rates, inflation, and the depth of the crisis decide the outcome, not the word recession.

You can check today's gold price and current premiums any time. https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>Buying a set amount each month also spares you from guessing what comes next.

Precious Metals Sector Major New Uptrend Alert

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Various factors are converging, which suggest that the Precious Metals sector is about to break out into a major new uptrend, and it looks like we have waited long enough.

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One factor that has deterred us somewhat has been the lurking threat of a market crash or severe downturn in the market generally, but it looks like they are going to continue to stave this off with massive money creation, with the latest madcap idea being to gift Iran US$300 million for reconstruction if it does what they want it to.

Of course it doesn’t have to and won’t, but it gives you an idea of how desperate they are to create money out of thin air.

We’ll now look at a range of silver charts to see why a breakout into a major new uptrend is a fast-growing probability.

Starting with a 1-year chart, we can see that the correction to the preceding parabolic blowoff looks like it has run far enough, with it converging and thus being a bullish Falling Wedge, and it having brought the price back to strong support at the upper boundary of the https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>giant 45-year Cup & Handle holding pattern that we will look at later on its very long-term chart.

With it now below a still rising 200-day moving average and momentum (MACD) improving, it looks like a good time for it to start higher again, especially given that we have entered a seasonally positive time of year for the Precious Metals.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-1-silver1year030826--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="841" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Now we’ll look at the same 1-year chart but this time with Bollinger Bands and Stochastics appended. Notice how the Bollinger Bands are pinched very tightly together – the last time this happened during the life of this chart was a year ago, and look what happened after that. In addition, the Stochastic is trending higher, increasing the chances of an upside breakout…

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-2-silver1year030826boll--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="847" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

On https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>the 5-year chart we can see that we are back in buying territory with the price having reacted back into a zone of very strong support underpinned by the lower parabolic uptrend coming into play beneath. And an important point to note is that, given the strength of silver’s big breakout last Fall, it’s asking a bit much to expect it to dig deep into this support before it takes off higher again.

It could take off very soon or even immediately – so we’d better not be backward in coming forward to buy the better PM stocks…

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-3-silver5year030826b--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="839" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Now we come to our favorite chart of all time – the chart which makes clear in no uncertain terms the incredibly bullish case for silver from a technical standpoint. Last Fall silver had a powerful breakout from a gigantic 45-year Cup & Handle holding pattern, and what we have seen since is a perfectly normal post-breakout reaction back to strong support at the upper boundary of the pattern that should birth a big 2nd upleg.

And because the next upleg should get it well clear of the pattern, it is likely to be much bigger than what we saw last year. It would be almost unheard of for the price to slump back into this pattern after the sort of clear breakout from it that we witnessed last year.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-4-silverfrom1980at030826--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="986" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

For the sake of completeness, we really ought to look at gold for the same time period, so here’s a chart for gold that also goes back to 1980 (made on the 4th and added the next day on the morning of the 5th)…

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-5-goldfrom1980at040826--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="983" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

And here is a 20-month chart for GDX also (made on the 4th and added on the 5th), which also looks most propitious…

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-6-gdx20month040826--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="1003" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Lastly, the Gold Miners Bullish % index showing a low reading of 21.6% bullish means that there is certainly plenty of room for the sector to run from here…

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In light of these observations, we will of course be looking at https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/01/frank-e-holmes-why-the-gold-bull-market-is-far-from-over-005105";>a range of better gold and silver stocks going forward, but as it takes time to prepare such articles, you don’t have to hang around waiting for me to post them. If you go back on the site, you will be able to unearth the articles about the good ones we looked at in the past, and most of them will still be good. This article was originally published on https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=7232"; rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">August 4, 2026.

Gold Flows Into ETFs Flipped Positive in July as Investors Buy the Dip

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold flows into ETFs flipped positive globally in July. After two consecutive months of outflows, every region reported positive flows of metal into gold-backed funds in July.

With Europe leading the way, gold ETFs reported net gold inflows of 23.5 tonnes in July, valued at $3 billion.

Assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds rose 1 percent to $530 billion. ETFs currently hold 4,068 tonnes of the yellow metal.

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Year-to-date, ETFs have added a net 39 tonnes of gold to their collective holdings valued at $11 billion.

The World Gold Council pinpointed three factors driving the ETF turnaround in July:

Diversification amid tech volatility
Selective bargain hunting as prices fell
Policy and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly an unclear monetary policy outlook and the ongoing war in Iran

European ETFs reported the second-strongest month of inflows this year in July, adding 17.3 tonnes of gold valued at around $2 billion.

Funds based in the UK and Switzerland led the surge.

According to the World Gold Council, it appears investors in Europe “rebuilt their positions” following a big selloff in June, as lower prices created buying opportunities.

“This mirrors the pattern seen earlier in the year, when European funds led the rebound following March's sharp U.S.-led outflows, suggesting investors were willing to add exposure after periods of market weakness.”

Asian funds reported a 4.8-tonne increase in gold holdings valued at $116 million. Chinese funds led the way with investors seeking a safe haven.

The CSI 300 Stock Index recorded its worst month since January 2016. Meanwhile, falling local yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Japanese-listed funds reported outflows as rising local yields diverted investor demand.

Indian funds reported modest inflows of $157 million.

North American funds reported inflows of just 0.3 tonnes valued at $71 million. The World Gold Council called it a “tentative recovery” after two months of significant outflows.

North America remains the only region reporting net gold outflows for the year.

Funds in other regions, including Africa and Australia, reported gold inflows of 1 tonne valued at $140 million. ETFs listed in South Africa and Australia led the way.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

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Global market liquidity averaged $356 billion per day in July, down 3.5 percent month-on-month.

Over-the-counter trading volumes also fell, ticking lower by about 3.4 percent to $205 billion per day.

Despite the decline, both LBMA volumes and Shanghai trading activity remained above their 2025 averages.

Total COMEX longs dropped modestly by 4.4 percent to 542 tonnes.

Managed money appears to be rebuilding its position, with longs adding 11 tonnes.

The World Gold Council described the current position as “near neutral.”

“Gold continues to be weighed down by the effects of the war in the Middle East, which has reinforced inflation risks and supported the dollar and yields, adding to the opportunity-cost headwind facing gold.”

South Korea Announces Gold Reserve Expansion Through Domestic Buying Program

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Central bank gold buying has surged in recent years. Net central bank gold purchases rose from an average of 473 tonnes between 2010 and 2021 to nearly 1,000 tonnes over the last four years.

Emerging market central banks have dominated gold buying, driving the surge in gold reserves, but a developed economy central bank recently announced plans to begin expanding its gold reserves through a domestic buying program.

On Monday, the Bank of Korea said it has established a framework to purchase gold from South Korean miners at international spot prices.

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The last time the Bank of Korea expanded its gold reserves was 13 years ago. The country currently holds just over 104 tonnes of gold, making up about 1.1 percent of the country’s total reserves.

Bank of Korea Reserve Management Group head Jeong Hee-sup said the central bank has also started purchasing gold ETF shares.

"With geopolitical risks becoming a persistent feature of the global environment, interest in gold as a safe-haven asset has grown significantly among central banks," Hee-sup said.

He emphasized that the domestic gold purchases are part of a long-term strategy to expand the country’s gold reserves.

"We do not plan to make a large purchase all at once. We intend to gradually increase the share of gold according to medium- and long-term needs."

The Korea Exchange and the Korea Securities Depository will facilitate the transactions, with domestic gold producer LS MnM and Korea Zinc supplying eligible gold.

The two Korean gold miners produce 4 to 5 tonnes of gold annually. Officials say the Bank of Korea will purchase some of that output “when market and reserve management conditions are favorable.”

The structure of the scheme will allow the Bank of Korea to settle the transactions in Korean won, meaning it will not have to dip into its foreign exchange reserves.

The gold will reportedly be stored in South Korea. Most of the country’s gold reserves are held in London vaults.

Analysts say that the move won’t likely impact the domestic gold price because the central bank plans to only buy gold intended for export at contract prices. However, it will mean less gold flowing into the global supply.

Central banks have been buying gold to lower their exposure to the U.S. dollar. Many countries have become wary of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>U.S.’s weaponization of the currency and the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/16/us-government-runs-another-big-deficit-in-june-as-interest-expense-climbs-005073";>fiscal irresponsibility of the federal government with its borrowing and spending out of control. During a central bank panel discussion in London last month, Hee-sup indicated that these concerns are top of mind in South Korea as well.

“Given gold's role as an inflation hedge and its potential as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, it's evident that gold should be considered one of the viable assets from a medium- to long-term perspective.”

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Notably, South Korea holds far less gold than most developed economies. It was aggressively expanding its reserves between 2011 and 2013. As the Economic Times of India put it, “the timing appeared disastrous.”

The yellow metal peaked at $1,920 per ounce in September 2011, and then tumbled to $1,180 in 2013, a 38 percent decline. By 2015, the unrealized loss grew to 1.8 trillion won. The South Korean government and central bank faced heavy criticism for making a bad investment decision and ended its purchasing program in 2015.

At $4,000 an ounce per day, the decision looks pretty good. The 90 tonnes of gold purchased during that period are now worth about $7 billion more than the Bank of Korea paid for it.

As already noted, South Korea is part of a broader central bank gold buying trend.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record, at 863 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, but still well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

Last month, the European Central Bank confirmed that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/ecb-confirms-gold-has-overtaken-treasuries-as-top-global-reserve-asset-004959";>gold had overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset.

According to an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) report, this shift toward gold has been “driven by protection against geopolitical risk and growing doubts about the stability of the international monetary system.”

OMFIF head of research Andrea Correa said she thinks this trend will continue into the foreseeable future.

"Gold is not moving anywhere. Reserve managers of the central banks are still very bullish on gold. Despite the fact that the gold value itself keeps rising, they are still demanding it."

Markets Question Fed's Inflation Resolve After July FOMC Meeting

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Federal Reserve Chairman https://share.google/jKuVxYtOXrl7jQMAH"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kevin Warsh continues to project a tough stance on inflation, repeatedly promising to restore price stability and keep inflation anchored at the central bank's longstanding 2% target. But according to Mike Maharrey in this week's Money Metals Midweek Memo, markets are beginning to judge the Fed by its actions rather than its rhetoric—and so far, they aren't convinced.

Drawing on the old adage "less talk and more action," Maharrey argues that while Warsh has made forceful public statements about fighting inflation, the Federal Reserve has yet to take any meaningful policy steps to support those promises. That disconnect, he says, is beginning to influence bond markets and could ultimately strengthen the case for owning precious metals.

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Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite Internal Division

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its July meeting by leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Although the decision was widely anticipated, it marked the second meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh and featured the first significant public disagreement within the committee.

Three policymakers—Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan—voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while the remaining nine members voted to keep rates unchanged. Warsh characterized the debate as a "good family fight," emphasizing open discussion https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/30/interest-rates-unchanged-after-fed-family-fight-005100";>rather than unanimous agreement.

Despite the divided vote, Maharrey contends that the practical outcome remained the same: the Fed continued talking aggressively about inflation without actually tightening monetary policy.

A New Communication Strategy Leaves Markets Guessing

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One of Warsh's biggest departures from former Chairman Jerome Powell is his rejection of extensive forward guidance.

Under Powell, markets typically had a clear idea of the Fed's intentions well before policy meetings. Warsh has intentionally abandoned that approach, shortening official FOMC statements from more than 300 words under Powell to roughly 130 words, arguing that policymakers should provide facts rather than forecasts.

Maharrey notes that while less guidance may give the Fed greater flexibility, it also creates greater uncertainty. Investors inevitably attempt to anticipate future policy, and when official guidance is sparse, markets become more volatile as participants fill in the blanks themselves.

Some economists have already criticized the new approach. Capital Economics argued that Warsh's intentionally vague answers have made forecasting future Fed actions even more difficult.

Tough Inflation Talk Without Tough Inflation Policy

Throughout his press conference, Warsh repeatedly pledged that the Federal Reserve would restore price stability, insisting, "We will deliver price stability," while acknowledging the process would take time and describing the July meeting as only "the beginning of the story."

Maharrey, however, argues that those assurances ring hollow because the Fed has not raised interest rates at all under Warsh.

He contrasts today's Fed with former Chairman Paul Volcker, who famously pushed interest rates to nearly 20% in 1980 to break inflation. By comparison, Maharrey says Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials remain untested because no comparable policy action has accompanied the rhetoric.

Bond Markets Signal Growing Skepticism

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Perhaps the strongest evidence that investors doubt the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>Fed's resolve came from the Treasury market following the July meeting.

Instead of falling, longer-term Treasury yields climbed. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.657%, while the 30-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to 5.193%. Maharrey interprets this move as a sign that investors increasingly believe the Fed is finished raising rates even though inflation risks remain elevated.

Reuters described the shift as reflecting expectations for persistent inflation rather than additional Fed tightening.

Former Federal Reserve economist Nathan Sheets, now Global Chief Economist at Citi, argued that markets are effectively casting a vote of no confidence in the Fed's inflation strategy. According to Sheets, Warsh has identified the inflation problem without presenting a credible roadmap for solving it, while also facing political pressure from the White House, which has favored lower interest rates.

Balance Sheet Expansion Sends Mixed Signals

Maharrey also points to another contradiction in the Fed's messaging.

While officials https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/02/yield-curve-twist-reveals-markets-losing-confidence-in-feds-commitment-to-slaying-inflation-005106";>speak aggressively about controlling inflation, the Federal Reserve has continued expanding its balance sheet through bond purchases—effectively engaging in quantitative easing. He argues that these purchases help support Treasury markets at a time when demand for U.S. government debt has weakened, and federal borrowing continues to expand by hundreds of billions of dollars each month.

According to Maharrey, buying government bonds while simultaneously claiming to wage war on inflation sends conflicting signals and further undermines the Fed's credibility.

Could the Fed Redefine Inflation?

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Another concern raised during the episode involves how the Federal Reserve measures inflation itself.

Historically, the Fed has targeted https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>2% core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. During his confirmation process, Warsh expressed interest in using trimmed averages, which exclude both the highest and lowest price changes in an effort to smooth inflation readings.

Although Warsh stated that PCE remains the Fed's preferred measure for now, he also suggested that task forces reviewing Fed strategy could recommend changes after January.

Maharrey argues that altering the methodology rather than lowering inflation itself would amount to moving the goalposts, allowing policymakers to claim success without materially reducing inflation.

Implications for Gold and Silver

Maharrey believes precious metals have spent the past several months trading sideways largely because investors expected the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Gold has found support around $4,000 per ounce, recently rebounding toward $4,200 amid optimism surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reopening and weaker-than-expected employment data.

If markets continue losing confidence in the Fed's willingness or ability to control inflation, Maharrey argues the environment could become increasingly supportive for both gold and silver through expectations of higher inflation, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/02/de-dollarization-alert-china-set-to-launch-alternative-global-payment-system-005107";>a potentially weaker U.S. dollar, and eventual monetary easing if economic conditions deteriorate.

Why Real Interest Rates Matter

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A key part of Maharrey's analysis centers on real interest rates, which subtract inflation from nominal yields.

Using current figures, he notes that with the federal funds rate at 3.5% and CPI inflation also at 3.5%, the real policy rate is effectively 0%. If inflation rises even modestly, real interest rates become negative despite positive nominal yields.

Because gold earns no yield, critics often argue that higher interest rates are bearish for precious metals. Maharrey counters that what truly matters is purchasing power. If inflation consumes all of an investor's nominal return, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes far less significant.

Inflation Metrics and the Case for Sound Money

The episode concludes with a discussion of inflation measurement.

Maharrey explains the distinction between the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/inflation-pain-is-worse-than-the-cpi-indicates-005097";>Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, noting that the Fed prefers PCE because of methodological differences that generally produce lower inflation readings. He argues that neither index measures inflation in its classical sense, which he defines as expansion of the money supply rather than rising consumer prices alone.

Pointing to continued growth in the M2 money supply, Maharrey maintains that monetary inflation remains ongoing and that even achieving the Fed's stated 2% inflation target still implies a steady erosion of purchasing power over time. He concludes that investors should consider holding physical gold and silver as long-term stores of value that cannot be devalued through monetary expansion.

How Often Does the Gold Price Change? - Live Spot Ticks, Twice-Daily LBMA Benchmarks, and Weekend Price Freezes - Six Price Drivers, Premium Timing, and When Your Order Locks - Money Metals

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

How often does the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold price change? Almost constantly.

The spot price of gold updates every few seconds during market hours. The market runs for roughly 23 hours a day, five days a week, from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon.

Newcomers to this market can find that pace intimidating. It feels like the ground keeps moving under you.

This guide explains what is behind that movement. We will discuss market hours, the purpose of the twice-daily LBMA benchmarks, and the forces that drive prices up and down. And we will cover the part that matters most when you buy: the moment your price locks in.

Quick Answer

How Often Does Gold Price Change?

Gold's Spot Price Changes Every Few Seconds

https://www.moneymetals.com/price/how-are-spot-prices-determined";>Gold trades on a global market that stays in near-constant motion. Most dealer websites pull a live data feed and refresh the quote every 10 to 15 seconds. This is the number you watch when you monitor the spot price on an exchange's website.

But the market moves even faster than the feed. https://www.cmegroup.com/company/comex.html";>Gold futures on the COMEX trade in fractions of a second. Thousands of orders can clear between one screen refresh and the next.

In practical terms, this means the price on your screen is more of a snapshot than a live wire. It is correct at the moment it loads. Seconds later, the market may have already moved on.

This gap trips up a lot of new buyers. However, this is not the only important thing to know about the spot price.

Spot price is not the price you pay.

The https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-does-spot-price-mean";>spot price is the going rate for one troy ounce of raw gold. This type of gold is traded in bulk between banks and dealers, not the everyday retail buyer.

A coin or refined bar costs more than the spot price. Someone has to mint it, ship it, insure it, and store it. That added cost gets factored into the retail price as a premium.

Premiums follow their own schedule, which we will discuss further down the page.

When Is the Gold Market Open? Trading Hours Explained

Gold futures trade on the CME Globex platform. The week opens Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET and runs straight through to Friday at 5:00 p.m. ET. Each day brings one 60-minute break, from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m. ET, for settlement and system maintenance.

That works out to 23 hours a day, five days a week.

The gold market runs for so long because gold is an international commodity. Traders buy and sell it in every major financial center on earth.

When Sydney closes, Tokyo is already working.

When Tokyo winds down, London opens.

When London breaks for lunch, New York is warming up.

The bid never has to travel far to find a buyer.

Major gold trading centers and their approximate daily hours, shown in local time and U.S. ET time

Trading center	Approximate local hours	Approximate ET time
Sydney	8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.	6:00 p.m. – 3:00 a.m.
Tokyo	9:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.	8:00 p.m. – 5:00 a.m.
London	8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.	3:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
New York	8:20 a.m. – 1:30 p.m.	8:20 a.m. – 1:30 p.m.

Times shift by an hour when daylight saving starts and ends in each region.

Not every hour carries the same weight. Gold can drift for a stretch overnight and then jump within a minute. Two windows account for most of the action.

The first is the London and New York overlap, roughly 8:00 a.m. to noon ET. Both markets are open, volume is heaviest, and the price moves on real weight rather than a thin book.

The second is the U.S. data calendar. Inflation reports and the monthly jobs report land at 8:30 a.m. ET. Federal Reserve policy decisions land at 2:00 p.m. ET. Gold often moves hard in the seconds after each release.

If you want a calmer moment to place an order, avoid those windows.

Does the Gold Price Change on Weekends?

The gold price does not change on weekends. Trading stops on Friday at 5:00 p.m. ET and does not start again until Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET. That means the spot price rests at Friday's closing number for roughly 49 hours.

Any price you see quoted on a Saturday is a leftover. It is Friday's last trade, held in place until the market wakes back up.

The world does not pause, though. Elections are held on weekends. Central banks announce policy. Geopolitical news breaks. The market has no way to respond to any of it in real time.

So it responds all at once.

When Sydney opens Sunday evening, two days of news get priced in within minutes. Traders call this a gap. Gold can open several dollars away from where it closed on Friday, in either direction, with no trades in between to bridge the distance.

Most weekends pass without much of one. A quiet weekend makes for a quiet open. But a weekend carrying real news can move gold further in the first hour of Sunday trading than it moved across an entire weekday.

This matters if you are watching a price on Saturday and deciding whether to act. The figure you see is far from permanent. You are looking at a two-day-old number, and the next real quote may be vastly different.

What About the LBMA Gold Price?

Alongside the live spot price, gold has an official benchmark. It is called the LBMA Gold Price. An auction sets it twice each business day.

This is where a lot of confusion starts. People hear that gold gets "fixed" twice a day and assume somebody picks a number and the rest of the market falls in line. That is not how it works.

Here is what actually happens. https://www.moneymetals.com/price/who-sets-the-gold-price";>ICE Benchmark Administration runs an electronic auction on behalf of the London Bullion Market Association. One auction starts at 10:30 a.m. London time. The other starts at 3:00 p.m. IBA publishes the two results as the LBMA Gold Price AM and the LBMA Gold Price PM.

Inside each auction, IBA posts an opening price. Banks and dealers enter how much they would buy or sell at that number. If the two sides do not match, the price moves and another round runs. This repeats until buying and selling balance out. The whole process usually takes a few minutes.

The result is one published number that anyone can check.

That is the entire point. Some transactions need a single official price rather than one that moved four times while you read this sentence. Mining contracts settle against it. Refiners quote from it. Gold ETFs use it to value what they hold. Central banks and auditors reference it.

Meanwhile, the live market never pauses. Spot keeps trading through both auctions and straight past them. The benchmark is a photograph of the market at one moment. It is not a leash on it.

Comparison of the live gold spot price and the LBMA Gold Price benchmark, by update frequency, who sets each one, and what each is used for

	Live spot price	LBMA Gold Price
How often it updates	Every few seconds during market hours	Twice each business day
Who sets it	Global trading. No single authority.	An auction run by ICE Benchmark Administration
What it is used for	Live quotes, buying and selling metal	Contracts, ETF valuations, accounting, official reference

Why Does the Gold Price Change So Often?

Gold has no earnings. It files no quarterly report and answers to no board. So what moves it every few seconds?

Six forces do most of the work.

The U.S. Dollar

Gold trades in dollars everywhere on earth. So https://www.moneymetals.com/price/does-the-us-dollar-affect-gold-prices";>the dollar sits on the other side of every gold price.

When the dollar weakens against other currencies, gold gets cheaper for a buyer holding euros, yen, or rupees. That causes demand to pick up. The dollar price of gold tends to rise. When the dollar strengthens, that usually runs in reverse.

This is why gold can move the instant currency markets do, with no gold news at all.

Interest Rates and Fed Policy

Gold pays no interest. A Treasury bond does.

When rates climb, holding gold means giving up more yield. Some money rotates out. When rates fall, that trade-off shrinks and gold looks better by comparison.

Traders watch real rates most closely. That is the interest rate after you subtract inflation. Federal Reserve meetings and rate decisions often produce the sharpest single-day gold moves of the year.

Inflation Expectations

People buy gold to protect purchasing power. When they expect the dollar to lose value faster, they want more of it.

Note the word expect. Gold responds to what traders think inflation will do, not only to what the last report said. The price can move on nothing but a guess about the number, long before the CPI release.

Central Bank Demand

Central banks rank among the largest gold buyers in the world.

They added 863 tonnes to their reserves in 2025, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>according to the World Gold Council. That was down from 2024. It still ran far above the 2010 to 2021 average of 473 tonnes a year.

This buying does not move the price minute to minute. It works on a longer clock. Think of it as steady pressure underneath the market rather than a daily driver.

Geopolitical Events

Gold does not depend on anyone keeping a promise. A bond can default. A bank can fail. A currency can be printed. An ounce of gold in your hand relies on none of that.

What gold does respond to are people's confidence in the market. Geopolitical crises can rock that confidence like few other issues. Examples include wars, sanctions, bank failures, and contested elections.

When people get nervous about the institutions behind their other assets, some of them move toward the one that has no institution behind it.

These moves come fast and follow headlines. They often fade as the headline does.

The Paper Market

Most gold trading never touches actual, physical gold.

Futures, options, https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/physical-gold-vs-gold-stocks";>ETF shares, and unallocated accounts trade in volumes far larger than the metal that physically changes hands.

This matters when you ask, "why does the gold price fluctuate?" The price that ticks on your screen comes mostly from contract traders.

Most of them never intend to take delivery of a single bar. Physical supply and demand still matter. They just work on a slower clock than the paper market does.

It is one reason the spot price can swing hard on a day when otherwise nothing has changed about gold.

Putting It All Together

Put those six factors together and the constant movement makes more sense. The gold price is not reacting to gold's physical properties. It is reacting to the dollar, to rates, to policy, to fear, and to a derivatives market that trades around the clock.

What none of this gives you is a forecast. Understanding why gold moves helps you read the news without panic. It does not tell you where the price goes next.

How Often Do Actual Gold Coin and Bar Prices Change?

You cannot buy gold at spot price. Spot is the wholesale rate for raw metal moving in bulk between banks and dealers.

What you can buy is a coin, bar, or round. All of these products will cost more than the spot price.

That gap is https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-premium";>the premium over spot. It covers minting, shipping, insurance, storage, and the dealer's margin.

So the price you actually pay has two parts. And those two parts run on completely different clocks.

Two Prices, Two Clocks

Spot changes every few seconds, as we covered above.

Premiums do not. A premium can hold steady for weeks at a time. Then it can move in a single afternoon.

This produces something that surprises new buyers. A one-ounce gold coin can get more expensive on a day when spot fell. It can also get cheaper on a day when spot rose. The two parts of the price do not have to move together, and often they do not.

What Moves the Premium

Premiums answer to the physical market, not the paper one.

Mint output. Sovereign mints produce a limited number of coins. When a mint slows down or rations orders, premiums on those coins climb.

Dealer inventory. A dealer with metal on the shelf can quote a lower premium than one who has to source it.

Retail demand. This is the big one. When a lot of people decide to buy at the same time, premiums rise fast. In serious buying rushes, the premium has done more to the final price than spot did.

Product type. Government coins like https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/american-gold-eagle";>American Gold Eagles carry higher premiums than generic rounds or larger bars. You are paying for recognition and liquidity.

The pattern worth remembering: spot reacts to traders, premiums react to buyers. During a panic, spot can stay calm while premiums do not.

When Your Price Locks

This is the frequency that actually affects your money.

The gold price changes every few seconds right up until the moment you confirm your order. Then it stops mattering. Your price is locked for that transaction. If spot jumps twenty dollars a minute later, your order is unaffected. If it drops twenty dollars, the same holds.

That is the answer to what most people are really asking when they wonder how often the gold price changes. They are not asking about market structure. They are asking whether the number will move on them before they finish checking out.

Selling Works the Same Way

The mechanics run in both directions.

When you sell metal back, the quote is built off live spot, and it locks when you confirm. Premiums matter here too. Products carrying strong retail demand tend to fetch better buyback prices, because the dealer knows they will move.

Should You Try to Time the Gold Price?

Once people learn how fast gold moves, a second question follows. Should you wait for a better number?

We will not tell you what to do with your money. But we can lay out the arithmetic, and you can weigh it yourself.

Do the Math on a Normal Day

On a typical trading day, gold moves a fraction of a percent. The premium on a one-ounce gold coin runs a few percent above spot.

Read those two numbers side by side. The premium is often larger than a full day of spot movement.

You could watch the chart for an hour and save a few dollars. The premium does not go anywhere while you watch.

There is a second cost people forget: resale cost. When you https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>buy gold, you pay above spot. Then, you sell for near the price. That spread shapes your result far more than catching a good tick on a Tuesday afternoon.

Waiting Carries Its Own Cost

Anyone waiting for a dip runs into the same wall. Dips only look obvious afterward.

Some buyers held off in recent years and watched gold climb away from them. Others bought and then sat through a pullback. Neither group knew which it would be. That is what a price changing every few seconds actually means. Most of that movement is noise, and noise does not announce itself.

What Many Long-Term Buyers Do Instead

One common approach is to buy on a schedule rather than on a hunch. The same amount, at the same interval, whatever the price does that week.

This is called dollar cost averaging. This approach does not get you the lowest price of the year, nor does it protect you from a falling market.

What it does is take the daily decision off your plate. It also spreads your buying across a range of prices instead of stacking it all on one day you happened to choose.

https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>Money Metals runs a monthly purchase plan for buyers who want to work this way. You set the amount, and you can change or cancel it whenever you like.

Frequently Asked Questions

The gold price updates continuously whenever global precious metals markets are open. Spot prices can change every few seconds as buyers and sellers react to economic data, central bank announcements, geopolitical events, currency movements, and shifts in investor demand.

The global spot gold market is generally closed on weekends, so the official spot price typically remains unchanged from the market close on Friday until trading resumes on Sunday evening (U.S. time). However, some dealers may adjust premiums or pricing based on anticipated market conditions or overnight risk.

There is no single daily update time because the spot gold price is quoted continuously while international markets are open, beginning Sunday evening and running through Friday afternoon (U.S. time). Many websites refresh prices every few seconds to reflect live market activity.

No single person, company, or government sets the price of gold. Instead, the global spot price is determined by continuous trading on major exchanges and over-the-counter markets, where buyers and sellers establish the market value in real time.

Most dealers use the same underlying spot price but apply different premiums based on factors such as product type, inventory levels, operating costs, shipping, and market demand. As a result, two dealers may quote different prices for the same gold coin or bar even though the underlying market price is identical.

There is no reliable time of year when gold is consistently the cheapest. Gold prices are driven primarily by economic conditions, interest rates, inflation expectations, currency movements, and investor sentiment, making seasonal patterns far less important than broader market forces.

It depends on which markets are open. If major global gold trading centers are closed for a holiday, price movement may be limited or paused, but if other international markets remain open, the spot price can continue to fluctuate throughout the day.

Conclusion

So how often does the gold price change? Every few seconds while the market is open, 23 hours a day, five days a week. It freezes on weekends. The LBMA benchmarks it twice each business day. And it stops mattering the moment you confirm an order, because that price becomes yours.

The movement is constant. Your price does not have to be.

Money Metals updates prices live all day and keeps premiums low, so you can see exactly what you are paying above spot.

A Vote of No Confidence! Are Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight?

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

A Vote of No Confidence! Are the Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight?

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and his minions are talking tough on inflation. But they haven't done anything.

At the July Fed meeting, the central bank elected to hold rates steady for the sixth time, despite price inflation remaining persistently well above the stated 2 percent target. Based on the market reaction, investors are beginning to think the Fed is surrendering to inflation and will not raise rates again.

In this week's Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey discusses the dichotomy between the Fed's words and its actions, explains why the markets are right to lack confidence in the Fed, and outlines how a surrender to inflation will impact the precious metals markets.

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Mike opens the show with a hypothetical scenario.

"What if I told you I was going to run a marathon? In fact, every time I see you, I talk about running this marathon. I show you my running shoes. I explain my training plan. I get a subscription to a running magazine. I buy running shorts. And yet, I never actually run. Would you believe I’m really running a marathon?

"Of course not.

"In the immortal words of Toby Keith, you would need a little less talk and a lot more action before you would have any faith in my marathon ambitions, right?

"I listen to a podcast called Sportsday Tampa Bay regularly, and the host is fond of saying, “If you have audio and video, believe the video. In other words, believe the actions you see over the words people say.

"Since Kevin Warsh stepped into his new role as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he’s been talking tough, insisting the central bank will not tolerate price inflation running hotter than the mythical 2 percent target. He doubled down on that messaging after the July FOMC meeting, saying, “You’ve heard this before, but we will deliver price stability.”

"But what has the Fed actually done?

"Nothing.

"And the markets are already starting to lose faith in the Warsh-led central bank’s willingness to tackle the inflation problem."

Last week, the Fed held its second FOMC meeting of the Kevin Warsh era. While it wasn't a foregone conclusion, the central bank held interest rates steady at between 3.5 and 3.75 percent, with three dissenting members voting for a quarter-point hike.

"In summary, the Federal Reserve is talking a lot about fighting inflation, but it isn't doing a lot to fight inflation."

Mike pointed out that Warsh is clearly trying to put his stamp on the Fed. One of the big changes is the new Fed chair's unwillingness to signal the next move.

"He’s made it clear he will provide much less 'forward guidance' than Jerome Powell. In other words, he doesn’t want the central bank to signal its intentions. So far, he has stuck to that commitment. There was genuine uncertainty in the market as to what the Fed would do."

Mike notes that markets aren't fans of uncertainty.

"Here’s the thing though. Even if you don’t provide clear forward guidance, the markets will concoct some. Markets are forward-thinking. So, if it’s not clear what’s going to happen, they’ll make something up and run with it."

Of course, if they're wrong, that means there will have to be a sharp correction. That means increased volatility.

Mike covers some of the highlights from the meeting and Warsh's press conference, emphasizing the Fed's tough talk on inflation.

"That all sounds great. Warsh comes off as a regular Paul Volker. But do you know what Volker did? He ran rates to 20 percent in 1980 to slay price inflation. Compare that to Warsh, who has raised rates – not at all."

Mike reminds listeners that he's been skeptical of the Fed's ability to tackle inflation due to the Debt Black Hole dominating the economy. Now it appears the markets are beginning to agree. When the Fed announced it would hold rates steady, rates on the long end of the Treasury yield curve ticked up.

"Movement in Treasury yields indicates that investors don’t believe the central bank will follow through on its hawkish rhetoric."

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In other words, the markets seem to be signaling they don't think the Fed is going to raise rates at all. Several mainstream analysts have pointed this out, including a former Fed employee who now works at Citigroup.

"He highlighted a problem and gave no strategy for solving it other than, 'I'm a hawk, trust me,' and the markets wanted more than that. I think part of it is if you lean too far into future hikes, then he's disappointing the White House. And it is a balancing act between Warsh the hawk, which he is, and trying to stay on sides relative to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

Mike also noted that Warsh has hinted that he might move the inflation goalposts. In other words, there is talk about changing the inflation target to make it easier to achieve.

Mike summed up the situation using a quote from a Reuters report that said, "'The combination of Warsh's repeated assertions of the need to tame inflation with no action to move it toward the 2 percent target and a hint that the goalposts themselves may change' was behind the recent jump in yields on the long end of the curve."

How will this impact gold and silver?

Mike argues that a surrender to inflation is ultimately bullish for precious metals.

"While higher interest rates on the long end of the curve could be considered bearish (given that gold and silver are non-yielding assets), higher inflation is bullish because the metals are historically an inflation hedge."

Mike also emphasizes that you need to pay attention to real interest rates, not just the nominal rates quoted on TV.

"The real interest rate is simply the stated rate you see on the news adjusted for price inflation. When you factor in real rates, it’s easy to see higher yields aren’t necessarily bearish for gold and silver. It may feel like you’re earning a good yield, but your gains are eaten up by inflation."

Mike sums it up this way.

"Summing it all up, Warsh will undoubtedly continue to talk tough on inflation. But remember, watch the video. It appears that’s exactly what the markets are doing."

Mike wraps up the show explaining his earlier assertion that the central bank may move the goalposts and change its inflation target to make it easier to achieve.

While inflation talk typically centers on the CPI, the Fed prefers the PCE.

"This metric is actually part of the GDP calculation. I wrote an article yesterday on the difference between the PCE and the CPI and why the Fed likes the PCE better. The short version is that two price inflation measures rely on significantly different methodological approaches, and central bankers prefer the PCE because it understates price inflation more than the CPI."

Mike says this underscores the fact that inflation is the plan.

"And part of that plan is making you think it’s not that bad. The government needs constant money printing to facilitate the borrowing and spending. Big government grows on inflation. Even if Warsh gets inflation under control, that means your money is being devalued 2 percent per year. That’s more than 10 percent every five years. That’s the plan. And the reality will always be worse than they’re telling you because they’re calculating 'inflation' using formulas they can manipulate to their advantage. The bottom line is your money will be worth less than it is today. Period. So, you need to plan accordingly."

Mike closes the show with a call to action. Call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today. The recent correction in gold prices provides a buying opportunity, but that window won't stay open forever.

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/18/golds-role-as-an-inflation-hedge-in-the-21st-century-003263";>Gold's Role as an Inflation Hedge in the 21st Century

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>What Is the PCE and Why Is It the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?

https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-happens-to-gold-prices-during-inflation";>What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation?

Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

What an Awful Jobs Report! And Don't Skip Over the Revisions

Downward Revisions Are Par for the Course

No! We're Not Going to Get Rich Mining Asteroid Gold

A Fool's Errand

Surging Asian Gold Demand Could Signal a "Structural Wealth Shift"

Gold Price During a Recession - Gold vs. the S&P 500 in Every Recession Since 1971 - The 2008 Margin-Call Drop and Four Forces Driving Gold - Money Metals

Does the Gold Price Go Up During a Recession?

Gold Prices in Every Recession Since 1971

What 2008 Actually Teaches Investors

Why Gold Tends to Rise When the Economy Contracts

Safe-Haven Demand

Falling Interest Rates and Real Yields

Currency Debasement and Stimulus

Central Bank Buying

Gold vs. Stocks and Other Recession Assets

What This Means for Investors Today

Frequently Asked Questions

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Should I buy gold before or during a recession? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Conclusion

Precious Metals Sector Major New Uptrend Alert

Gold Flows Into ETFs Flipped Positive in July as Investors Buy the Dip

Trading Volumes

South Korea Announces Gold Reserve Expansion Through Domestic Buying Program

Markets Question Fed's Inflation Resolve After July FOMC Meeting

Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite Internal Division

A New Communication Strategy Leaves Markets Guessing

Tough Inflation Talk Without Tough Inflation Policy

Bond Markets Signal Growing Skepticism

Balance Sheet Expansion Sends Mixed Signals

Could the Fed Redefine Inflation?

Implications for Gold and Silver

Why Real Interest Rates Matter

Inflation Metrics and the Case for Sound Money

How Often Does the Gold Price Change? - Live Spot Ticks, Twice-Daily LBMA Benchmarks, and Weekend Price Freezes - Six Price Drivers, Premium Timing, and When Your Order Locks - Money Metals

How Often Does Gold Price Change?

When Is the Gold Market Open? Trading Hours Explained

Does the Gold Price Change on Weekends?

What About the LBMA Gold Price?

Why Does the Gold Price Change So Often?

The U.S. Dollar

Interest Rates and Fed Policy

Inflation Expectations

Central Bank Demand

Geopolitical Events

The Paper Market

Putting It All Together

How Often Do Actual Gold Coin and Bar Prices Change?

Two Prices, Two Clocks

What Moves the Premium

When Your Price Locks

Selling Works the Same Way

Should You Try to Time the Gold Price?

Do the Math on a Normal Day

Waiting Carries Its Own Cost

What Many Long-Term Buyers Do Instead

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does the gold price change in a day? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

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What time does the gold price update each day? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Who sets the price of gold? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Why is the gold price different at every dealer? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

What time of year is gold cheapest? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Does the gold price change on holidays? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Conclusion

A Vote of No Confidence! Are Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight?

Articles Mentioned During the Show