Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Precious Metals Sector Major New Uptrend Alert

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Various factors are converging, which suggest that the Precious Metals sector is about to break out into a major new uptrend, and it looks like we have waited long enough.

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One factor that has deterred us somewhat has been the lurking threat of a market crash or severe downturn in the market generally, but it looks like they are going to continue to stave this off with massive money creation, with the latest madcap idea being to gift Iran US$300 million for reconstruction if it does what they want it to.

Of course it doesn’t have to and won’t, but it gives you an idea of how desperate they are to create money out of thin air.

We’ll now look at a range of silver charts to see why a breakout into a major new uptrend is a fast-growing probability.

Starting with a 1-year chart, we can see that the correction to the preceding parabolic blowoff looks like it has run far enough, with it converging and thus being a bullish Falling Wedge, and it having brought the price back to strong support at the upper boundary of the https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>giant 45-year Cup & Handle holding pattern that we will look at later on its very long-term chart.

With it now below a still rising 200-day moving average and momentum (MACD) improving, it looks like a good time for it to start higher again, especially given that we have entered a seasonally positive time of year for the Precious Metals.

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Now we’ll look at the same 1-year chart but this time with Bollinger Bands and Stochastics appended. Notice how the Bollinger Bands are pinched very tightly together – the last time this happened during the life of this chart was a year ago, and look what happened after that. In addition, the Stochastic is trending higher, increasing the chances of an upside breakout…

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-2-silver1year030826boll--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="847" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

On https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>the 5-year chart we can see that we are back in buying territory with the price having reacted back into a zone of very strong support underpinned by the lower parabolic uptrend coming into play beneath. And an important point to note is that, given the strength of silver’s big breakout last Fall, it’s asking a bit much to expect it to dig deep into this support before it takes off higher again.

It could take off very soon or even immediately – so we’d better not be backward in coming forward to buy the better PM stocks…

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Now we come to our favorite chart of all time – the chart which makes clear in no uncertain terms the incredibly bullish case for silver from a technical standpoint. Last Fall silver had a powerful breakout from a gigantic 45-year Cup & Handle holding pattern, and what we have seen since is a perfectly normal post-breakout reaction back to strong support at the upper boundary of the pattern that should birth a big 2nd upleg.

And because the next upleg should get it well clear of the pattern, it is likely to be much bigger than what we saw last year. It would be almost unheard of for the price to slump back into this pattern after the sort of clear breakout from it that we witnessed last year.

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For the sake of completeness, we really ought to look at gold for the same time period, so here’s a chart for gold that also goes back to 1980 (made on the 4th and added the next day on the morning of the 5th)…

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And here is a 20-month chart for GDX also (made on the 4th and added on the 5th), which also looks most propitious…

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Lastly, the Gold Miners Bullish % index showing a low reading of 21.6% bullish means that there is certainly plenty of room for the sector to run from here…

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In light of these observations, we will of course be looking at https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/01/frank-e-holmes-why-the-gold-bull-market-is-far-from-over-005105";>a range of better gold and silver stocks going forward, but as it takes time to prepare such articles, you don’t have to hang around waiting for me to post them. If you go back on the site, you will be able to unearth the articles about the good ones we looked at in the past, and most of them will still be good. This article was originally published on https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=7232"; rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">August 4, 2026.

Gold Flows Into ETFs Flipped Positive in July as Investors Buy the Dip

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold flows into ETFs flipped positive globally in July. After two consecutive months of outflows, every region reported positive flows of metal into gold-backed funds in July.

With Europe leading the way, gold ETFs reported net gold inflows of 23.5 tonnes in July, valued at $3 billion.

Assets under management (AUM) by gold-backed funds rose 1 percent to $530 billion. ETFs currently hold 4,068 tonnes of the yellow metal.

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Year-to-date, ETFs have added a net 39 tonnes of gold to their collective holdings valued at $11 billion.

The World Gold Council pinpointed three factors driving the ETF turnaround in July:

Diversification amid tech volatility
Selective bargain hunting as prices fell
Policy and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly an unclear monetary policy outlook and the ongoing war in Iran

European ETFs reported the second-strongest month of inflows this year in July, adding 17.3 tonnes of gold valued at around $2 billion.

Funds based in the UK and Switzerland led the surge.

According to the World Gold Council, it appears investors in Europe “rebuilt their positions” following a big selloff in June, as lower prices created buying opportunities.

“This mirrors the pattern seen earlier in the year, when European funds led the rebound following March's sharp U.S.-led outflows, suggesting investors were willing to add exposure after periods of market weakness.”

Asian funds reported a 4.8-tonne increase in gold holdings valued at $116 million. Chinese funds led the way with investors seeking a safe haven.

The CSI 300 Stock Index recorded its worst month since January 2016. Meanwhile, falling local yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Japanese-listed funds reported outflows as rising local yields diverted investor demand.

Indian funds reported modest inflows of $157 million.

North American funds reported inflows of just 0.3 tonnes valued at $71 million. The World Gold Council called it a “tentative recovery” after two months of significant outflows.

North America remains the only region reporting net gold outflows for the year.

Funds in other regions, including Africa and Australia, reported gold inflows of 1 tonne valued at $140 million. ETFs listed in South Africa and Australia led the way.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=O3yPeFkTYFHOXrHe"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

ETFs are relatively liquid. You can buy or sell an ETF with a couple of mouse clicks. You don’t have to worry about transporting or storing metal. In a nutshell, it allows investors to play the gold market without buying full ounces of metal at the spot price.

Since you are just buying a number in a computer, you can easily trade your ETF shares for another stock or cash whenever you want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors take advantage of this liquidity.

But while a gold ETF is a convenient way to play gold's price, you don’t possess any gold. You have paper. And you don’t know for sure that the fund has all the gold either, especially when it sees inflows. In such a scenario, there have been difficulties or delays in obtaining physical metal.

Trading Volumes

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Global market liquidity averaged $356 billion per day in July, down 3.5 percent month-on-month.

Over-the-counter trading volumes also fell, ticking lower by about 3.4 percent to $205 billion per day.

Despite the decline, both LBMA volumes and Shanghai trading activity remained above their 2025 averages.

Total COMEX longs dropped modestly by 4.4 percent to 542 tonnes.

Managed money appears to be rebuilding its position, with longs adding 11 tonnes.

The World Gold Council described the current position as “near neutral.”

“Gold continues to be weighed down by the effects of the war in the Middle East, which has reinforced inflation risks and supported the dollar and yields, adding to the opportunity-cost headwind facing gold.”

South Korea Announces Gold Reserve Expansion Through Domestic Buying Program

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Central bank gold buying has surged in recent years. Net central bank gold purchases rose from an average of 473 tonnes between 2010 and 2021 to nearly 1,000 tonnes over the last four years.

Emerging market central banks have dominated gold buying, driving the surge in gold reserves, but a developed economy central bank recently announced plans to begin expanding its gold reserves through a domestic buying program.

On Monday, the Bank of Korea said it has established a framework to purchase gold from South Korean miners at international spot prices.

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The last time the Bank of Korea expanded its gold reserves was 13 years ago. The country currently holds just over 104 tonnes of gold, making up about 1.1 percent of the country’s total reserves.

Bank of Korea Reserve Management Group head Jeong Hee-sup said the central bank has also started purchasing gold ETF shares.

"With geopolitical risks becoming a persistent feature of the global environment, interest in gold as a safe-haven asset has grown significantly among central banks," Hee-sup said.

He emphasized that the domestic gold purchases are part of a long-term strategy to expand the country’s gold reserves.

"We do not plan to make a large purchase all at once. We intend to gradually increase the share of gold according to medium- and long-term needs."

The Korea Exchange and the Korea Securities Depository will facilitate the transactions, with domestic gold producer LS MnM and Korea Zinc supplying eligible gold.

The two Korean gold miners produce 4 to 5 tonnes of gold annually. Officials say the Bank of Korea will purchase some of that output “when market and reserve management conditions are favorable.”

The structure of the scheme will allow the Bank of Korea to settle the transactions in Korean won, meaning it will not have to dip into its foreign exchange reserves.

The gold will reportedly be stored in South Korea. Most of the country’s gold reserves are held in London vaults.

Analysts say that the move won’t likely impact the domestic gold price because the central bank plans to only buy gold intended for export at contract prices. However, it will mean less gold flowing into the global supply.

Central banks have been buying gold to lower their exposure to the U.S. dollar. Many countries have become wary of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>U.S.’s weaponization of the currency and the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/16/us-government-runs-another-big-deficit-in-june-as-interest-expense-climbs-005073";>fiscal irresponsibility of the federal government with its borrowing and spending out of control. During a central bank panel discussion in London last month, Hee-sup indicated that these concerns are top of mind in South Korea as well.

“Given gold's role as an inflation hedge and its potential as an alternative to the U.S. dollar, it's evident that gold should be considered one of the viable assets from a medium- to long-term perspective.”

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Notably, South Korea holds far less gold than most developed economies. It was aggressively expanding its reserves between 2011 and 2013. As the Economic Times of India put it, “the timing appeared disastrous.”

The yellow metal peaked at $1,920 per ounce in September 2011, and then tumbled to $1,180 in 2013, a 38 percent decline. By 2015, the unrealized loss grew to 1.8 trillion won. The South Korean government and central bank faced heavy criticism for making a bad investment decision and ended its purchasing program in 2015.

At $4,000 an ounce per day, the decision looks pretty good. The 90 tonnes of gold purchased during that period are now worth about $7 billion more than the Bank of Korea paid for it.

As already noted, South Korea is part of a broader central bank gold buying trend.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record, at 863 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, but still well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

Last month, the European Central Bank confirmed that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/ecb-confirms-gold-has-overtaken-treasuries-as-top-global-reserve-asset-004959";>gold had overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset.

According to an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) report, this shift toward gold has been “driven by protection against geopolitical risk and growing doubts about the stability of the international monetary system.”

OMFIF head of research Andrea Correa said she thinks this trend will continue into the foreseeable future.

"Gold is not moving anywhere. Reserve managers of the central banks are still very bullish on gold. Despite the fact that the gold value itself keeps rising, they are still demanding it."

Markets Question Fed's Inflation Resolve After July FOMC Meeting

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Federal Reserve Chairman https://share.google/jKuVxYtOXrl7jQMAH"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kevin Warsh continues to project a tough stance on inflation, repeatedly promising to restore price stability and keep inflation anchored at the central bank's longstanding 2% target. But according to Mike Maharrey in this week's Money Metals Midweek Memo, markets are beginning to judge the Fed by its actions rather than its rhetoric—and so far, they aren't convinced.

Drawing on the old adage "less talk and more action," Maharrey argues that while Warsh has made forceful public statements about fighting inflation, the Federal Reserve has yet to take any meaningful policy steps to support those promises. That disconnect, he says, is beginning to influence bond markets and could ultimately strengthen the case for owning precious metals.

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Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite Internal Division

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its July meeting by leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Although the decision was widely anticipated, it marked the second meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh and featured the first significant public disagreement within the committee.

Three policymakers—Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan—voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while the remaining nine members voted to keep rates unchanged. Warsh characterized the debate as a "good family fight," emphasizing open discussion https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/30/interest-rates-unchanged-after-fed-family-fight-005100";>rather than unanimous agreement.

Despite the divided vote, Maharrey contends that the practical outcome remained the same: the Fed continued talking aggressively about inflation without actually tightening monetary policy.

A New Communication Strategy Leaves Markets Guessing

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One of Warsh's biggest departures from former Chairman Jerome Powell is his rejection of extensive forward guidance.

Under Powell, markets typically had a clear idea of the Fed's intentions well before policy meetings. Warsh has intentionally abandoned that approach, shortening official FOMC statements from more than 300 words under Powell to roughly 130 words, arguing that policymakers should provide facts rather than forecasts.

Maharrey notes that while less guidance may give the Fed greater flexibility, it also creates greater uncertainty. Investors inevitably attempt to anticipate future policy, and when official guidance is sparse, markets become more volatile as participants fill in the blanks themselves.

Some economists have already criticized the new approach. Capital Economics argued that Warsh's intentionally vague answers have made forecasting future Fed actions even more difficult.

Tough Inflation Talk Without Tough Inflation Policy

Throughout his press conference, Warsh repeatedly pledged that the Federal Reserve would restore price stability, insisting, "We will deliver price stability," while acknowledging the process would take time and describing the July meeting as only "the beginning of the story."

Maharrey, however, argues that those assurances ring hollow because the Fed has not raised interest rates at all under Warsh.

He contrasts today's Fed with former Chairman Paul Volcker, who famously pushed interest rates to nearly 20% in 1980 to break inflation. By comparison, Maharrey says Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials remain untested because no comparable policy action has accompanied the rhetoric.

Bond Markets Signal Growing Skepticism

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Perhaps the strongest evidence that investors doubt the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>Fed's resolve came from the Treasury market following the July meeting.

Instead of falling, longer-term Treasury yields climbed. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.657%, while the 30-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to 5.193%. Maharrey interprets this move as a sign that investors increasingly believe the Fed is finished raising rates even though inflation risks remain elevated.

Reuters described the shift as reflecting expectations for persistent inflation rather than additional Fed tightening.

Former Federal Reserve economist Nathan Sheets, now Global Chief Economist at Citi, argued that markets are effectively casting a vote of no confidence in the Fed's inflation strategy. According to Sheets, Warsh has identified the inflation problem without presenting a credible roadmap for solving it, while also facing political pressure from the White House, which has favored lower interest rates.

Balance Sheet Expansion Sends Mixed Signals

Maharrey also points to another contradiction in the Fed's messaging.

While officials https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/02/yield-curve-twist-reveals-markets-losing-confidence-in-feds-commitment-to-slaying-inflation-005106";>speak aggressively about controlling inflation, the Federal Reserve has continued expanding its balance sheet through bond purchases—effectively engaging in quantitative easing. He argues that these purchases help support Treasury markets at a time when demand for U.S. government debt has weakened, and federal borrowing continues to expand by hundreds of billions of dollars each month.

According to Maharrey, buying government bonds while simultaneously claiming to wage war on inflation sends conflicting signals and further undermines the Fed's credibility.

Could the Fed Redefine Inflation?

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Another concern raised during the episode involves how the Federal Reserve measures inflation itself.

Historically, the Fed has targeted https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>2% core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. During his confirmation process, Warsh expressed interest in using trimmed averages, which exclude both the highest and lowest price changes in an effort to smooth inflation readings.

Although Warsh stated that PCE remains the Fed's preferred measure for now, he also suggested that task forces reviewing Fed strategy could recommend changes after January.

Maharrey argues that altering the methodology rather than lowering inflation itself would amount to moving the goalposts, allowing policymakers to claim success without materially reducing inflation.

Implications for Gold and Silver

Maharrey believes precious metals have spent the past several months trading sideways largely because investors expected the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Gold has found support around $4,000 per ounce, recently rebounding toward $4,200 amid optimism surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reopening and weaker-than-expected employment data.

If markets continue losing confidence in the Fed's willingness or ability to control inflation, Maharrey argues the environment could become increasingly supportive for both gold and silver through expectations of higher inflation, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/02/de-dollarization-alert-china-set-to-launch-alternative-global-payment-system-005107";>a potentially weaker U.S. dollar, and eventual monetary easing if economic conditions deteriorate.

Why Real Interest Rates Matter

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A key part of Maharrey's analysis centers on real interest rates, which subtract inflation from nominal yields.

Using current figures, he notes that with the federal funds rate at 3.5% and CPI inflation also at 3.5%, the real policy rate is effectively 0%. If inflation rises even modestly, real interest rates become negative despite positive nominal yields.

Because gold earns no yield, critics often argue that higher interest rates are bearish for precious metals. Maharrey counters that what truly matters is purchasing power. If inflation consumes all of an investor's nominal return, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes far less significant.

Inflation Metrics and the Case for Sound Money

The episode concludes with a discussion of inflation measurement.

Maharrey explains the distinction between the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/inflation-pain-is-worse-than-the-cpi-indicates-005097";>Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, noting that the Fed prefers PCE because of methodological differences that generally produce lower inflation readings. He argues that neither index measures inflation in its classical sense, which he defines as expansion of the money supply rather than rising consumer prices alone.

Pointing to continued growth in the M2 money supply, Maharrey maintains that monetary inflation remains ongoing and that even achieving the Fed's stated 2% inflation target still implies a steady erosion of purchasing power over time. He concludes that investors should consider holding physical gold and silver as long-term stores of value that cannot be devalued through monetary expansion.

How Often Does the Gold Price Change? - Live Spot Ticks, Twice-Daily LBMA Benchmarks, and Weekend Price Freezes - Six Price Drivers, Premium Timing, and When Your Order Locks - Money Metals

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

How often does the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold price change? Almost constantly.

The spot price of gold updates every few seconds during market hours. The market runs for roughly 23 hours a day, five days a week, from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon.

Newcomers to this market can find that pace intimidating. It feels like the ground keeps moving under you.

This guide explains what is behind that movement. We will discuss market hours, the purpose of the twice-daily LBMA benchmarks, and the forces that drive prices up and down. And we will cover the part that matters most when you buy: the moment your price locks in.

Quick Answer

How Often Does Gold Price Change?

Gold's Spot Price Changes Every Few Seconds

https://www.moneymetals.com/price/how-are-spot-prices-determined";>Gold trades on a global market that stays in near-constant motion. Most dealer websites pull a live data feed and refresh the quote every 10 to 15 seconds. This is the number you watch when you monitor the spot price on an exchange's website.

But the market moves even faster than the feed. https://www.cmegroup.com/company/comex.html";>Gold futures on the COMEX trade in fractions of a second. Thousands of orders can clear between one screen refresh and the next.

In practical terms, this means the price on your screen is more of a snapshot than a live wire. It is correct at the moment it loads. Seconds later, the market may have already moved on.

This gap trips up a lot of new buyers. However, this is not the only important thing to know about the spot price.

Spot price is not the price you pay.

The https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-does-spot-price-mean";>spot price is the going rate for one troy ounce of raw gold. This type of gold is traded in bulk between banks and dealers, not the everyday retail buyer.

A coin or refined bar costs more than the spot price. Someone has to mint it, ship it, insure it, and store it. That added cost gets factored into the retail price as a premium.

Premiums follow their own schedule, which we will discuss further down the page.

When Is the Gold Market Open? Trading Hours Explained

Gold futures trade on the CME Globex platform. The week opens Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET and runs straight through to Friday at 5:00 p.m. ET. Each day brings one 60-minute break, from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m. ET, for settlement and system maintenance.

That works out to 23 hours a day, five days a week.

The gold market runs for so long because gold is an international commodity. Traders buy and sell it in every major financial center on earth.

When Sydney closes, Tokyo is already working.

When Tokyo winds down, London opens.

When London breaks for lunch, New York is warming up.

The bid never has to travel far to find a buyer.

Major gold trading centers and their approximate daily hours, shown in local time and U.S. ET time

Trading center	Approximate local hours	Approximate ET time
Sydney	8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.	6:00 p.m. – 3:00 a.m.
Tokyo	9:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.	8:00 p.m. – 5:00 a.m.
London	8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.	3:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
New York	8:20 a.m. – 1:30 p.m.	8:20 a.m. – 1:30 p.m.

Times shift by an hour when daylight saving starts and ends in each region.

Not every hour carries the same weight. Gold can drift for a stretch overnight and then jump within a minute. Two windows account for most of the action.

The first is the London and New York overlap, roughly 8:00 a.m. to noon ET. Both markets are open, volume is heaviest, and the price moves on real weight rather than a thin book.

The second is the U.S. data calendar. Inflation reports and the monthly jobs report land at 8:30 a.m. ET. Federal Reserve policy decisions land at 2:00 p.m. ET. Gold often moves hard in the seconds after each release.

If you want a calmer moment to place an order, avoid those windows.

Does the Gold Price Change on Weekends?

The gold price does not change on weekends. Trading stops on Friday at 5:00 p.m. ET and does not start again until Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET. That means the spot price rests at Friday's closing number for roughly 49 hours.

Any price you see quoted on a Saturday is a leftover. It is Friday's last trade, held in place until the market wakes back up.

The world does not pause, though. Elections are held on weekends. Central banks announce policy. Geopolitical news breaks. The market has no way to respond to any of it in real time.

So it responds all at once.

When Sydney opens Sunday evening, two days of news get priced in within minutes. Traders call this a gap. Gold can open several dollars away from where it closed on Friday, in either direction, with no trades in between to bridge the distance.

Most weekends pass without much of one. A quiet weekend makes for a quiet open. But a weekend carrying real news can move gold further in the first hour of Sunday trading than it moved across an entire weekday.

This matters if you are watching a price on Saturday and deciding whether to act. The figure you see is far from permanent. You are looking at a two-day-old number, and the next real quote may be vastly different.

What About the LBMA Gold Price?

Alongside the live spot price, gold has an official benchmark. It is called the LBMA Gold Price. An auction sets it twice each business day.

This is where a lot of confusion starts. People hear that gold gets "fixed" twice a day and assume somebody picks a number and the rest of the market falls in line. That is not how it works.

Here is what actually happens. https://www.moneymetals.com/price/who-sets-the-gold-price";>ICE Benchmark Administration runs an electronic auction on behalf of the London Bullion Market Association. One auction starts at 10:30 a.m. London time. The other starts at 3:00 p.m. IBA publishes the two results as the LBMA Gold Price AM and the LBMA Gold Price PM.

Inside each auction, IBA posts an opening price. Banks and dealers enter how much they would buy or sell at that number. If the two sides do not match, the price moves and another round runs. This repeats until buying and selling balance out. The whole process usually takes a few minutes.

The result is one published number that anyone can check.

That is the entire point. Some transactions need a single official price rather than one that moved four times while you read this sentence. Mining contracts settle against it. Refiners quote from it. Gold ETFs use it to value what they hold. Central banks and auditors reference it.

Meanwhile, the live market never pauses. Spot keeps trading through both auctions and straight past them. The benchmark is a photograph of the market at one moment. It is not a leash on it.

Comparison of the live gold spot price and the LBMA Gold Price benchmark, by update frequency, who sets each one, and what each is used for

	Live spot price	LBMA Gold Price
How often it updates	Every few seconds during market hours	Twice each business day
Who sets it	Global trading. No single authority.	An auction run by ICE Benchmark Administration
What it is used for	Live quotes, buying and selling metal	Contracts, ETF valuations, accounting, official reference

Why Does the Gold Price Change So Often?

Gold has no earnings. It files no quarterly report and answers to no board. So what moves it every few seconds?

Six forces do most of the work.

The U.S. Dollar

Gold trades in dollars everywhere on earth. So https://www.moneymetals.com/price/does-the-us-dollar-affect-gold-prices";>the dollar sits on the other side of every gold price.

When the dollar weakens against other currencies, gold gets cheaper for a buyer holding euros, yen, or rupees. That causes demand to pick up. The dollar price of gold tends to rise. When the dollar strengthens, that usually runs in reverse.

This is why gold can move the instant currency markets do, with no gold news at all.

Interest Rates and Fed Policy

Gold pays no interest. A Treasury bond does.

When rates climb, holding gold means giving up more yield. Some money rotates out. When rates fall, that trade-off shrinks and gold looks better by comparison.

Traders watch real rates most closely. That is the interest rate after you subtract inflation. Federal Reserve meetings and rate decisions often produce the sharpest single-day gold moves of the year.

Inflation Expectations

People buy gold to protect purchasing power. When they expect the dollar to lose value faster, they want more of it.

Note the word expect. Gold responds to what traders think inflation will do, not only to what the last report said. The price can move on nothing but a guess about the number, long before the CPI release.

Central Bank Demand

Central banks rank among the largest gold buyers in the world.

They added 863 tonnes to their reserves in 2025, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>according to the World Gold Council. That was down from 2024. It still ran far above the 2010 to 2021 average of 473 tonnes a year.

This buying does not move the price minute to minute. It works on a longer clock. Think of it as steady pressure underneath the market rather than a daily driver.

Geopolitical Events

Gold does not depend on anyone keeping a promise. A bond can default. A bank can fail. A currency can be printed. An ounce of gold in your hand relies on none of that.

What gold does respond to are people's confidence in the market. Geopolitical crises can rock that confidence like few other issues. Examples include wars, sanctions, bank failures, and contested elections.

When people get nervous about the institutions behind their other assets, some of them move toward the one that has no institution behind it.

These moves come fast and follow headlines. They often fade as the headline does.

The Paper Market

Most gold trading never touches actual, physical gold.

Futures, options, https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/physical-gold-vs-gold-stocks";>ETF shares, and unallocated accounts trade in volumes far larger than the metal that physically changes hands.

This matters when you ask, "why does the gold price fluctuate?" The price that ticks on your screen comes mostly from contract traders.

Most of them never intend to take delivery of a single bar. Physical supply and demand still matter. They just work on a slower clock than the paper market does.

It is one reason the spot price can swing hard on a day when otherwise nothing has changed about gold.

Putting It All Together

Put those six factors together and the constant movement makes more sense. The gold price is not reacting to gold's physical properties. It is reacting to the dollar, to rates, to policy, to fear, and to a derivatives market that trades around the clock.

What none of this gives you is a forecast. Understanding why gold moves helps you read the news without panic. It does not tell you where the price goes next.

How Often Do Actual Gold Coin and Bar Prices Change?

You cannot buy gold at spot price. Spot is the wholesale rate for raw metal moving in bulk between banks and dealers.

What you can buy is a coin, bar, or round. All of these products will cost more than the spot price.

That gap is https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-premium";>the premium over spot. It covers minting, shipping, insurance, storage, and the dealer's margin.

So the price you actually pay has two parts. And those two parts run on completely different clocks.

Two Prices, Two Clocks

Spot changes every few seconds, as we covered above.

Premiums do not. A premium can hold steady for weeks at a time. Then it can move in a single afternoon.

This produces something that surprises new buyers. A one-ounce gold coin can get more expensive on a day when spot fell. It can also get cheaper on a day when spot rose. The two parts of the price do not have to move together, and often they do not.

What Moves the Premium

Premiums answer to the physical market, not the paper one.

Mint output. Sovereign mints produce a limited number of coins. When a mint slows down or rations orders, premiums on those coins climb.

Dealer inventory. A dealer with metal on the shelf can quote a lower premium than one who has to source it.

Retail demand. This is the big one. When a lot of people decide to buy at the same time, premiums rise fast. In serious buying rushes, the premium has done more to the final price than spot did.

Product type. Government coins like https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/american-gold-eagle";>American Gold Eagles carry higher premiums than generic rounds or larger bars. You are paying for recognition and liquidity.

The pattern worth remembering: spot reacts to traders, premiums react to buyers. During a panic, spot can stay calm while premiums do not.

When Your Price Locks

This is the frequency that actually affects your money.

The gold price changes every few seconds right up until the moment you confirm your order. Then it stops mattering. Your price is locked for that transaction. If spot jumps twenty dollars a minute later, your order is unaffected. If it drops twenty dollars, the same holds.

That is the answer to what most people are really asking when they wonder how often the gold price changes. They are not asking about market structure. They are asking whether the number will move on them before they finish checking out.

Selling Works the Same Way

The mechanics run in both directions.

When you sell metal back, the quote is built off live spot, and it locks when you confirm. Premiums matter here too. Products carrying strong retail demand tend to fetch better buyback prices, because the dealer knows they will move.

Should You Try to Time the Gold Price?

Once people learn how fast gold moves, a second question follows. Should you wait for a better number?

We will not tell you what to do with your money. But we can lay out the arithmetic, and you can weigh it yourself.

Do the Math on a Normal Day

On a typical trading day, gold moves a fraction of a percent. The premium on a one-ounce gold coin runs a few percent above spot.

Read those two numbers side by side. The premium is often larger than a full day of spot movement.

You could watch the chart for an hour and save a few dollars. The premium does not go anywhere while you watch.

There is a second cost people forget: resale cost. When you https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>buy gold, you pay above spot. Then, you sell for near the price. That spread shapes your result far more than catching a good tick on a Tuesday afternoon.

Waiting Carries Its Own Cost

Anyone waiting for a dip runs into the same wall. Dips only look obvious afterward.

Some buyers held off in recent years and watched gold climb away from them. Others bought and then sat through a pullback. Neither group knew which it would be. That is what a price changing every few seconds actually means. Most of that movement is noise, and noise does not announce itself.

What Many Long-Term Buyers Do Instead

One common approach is to buy on a schedule rather than on a hunch. The same amount, at the same interval, whatever the price does that week.

This is called dollar cost averaging. This approach does not get you the lowest price of the year, nor does it protect you from a falling market.

What it does is take the daily decision off your plate. It also spreads your buying across a range of prices instead of stacking it all on one day you happened to choose.

https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>Money Metals runs a monthly purchase plan for buyers who want to work this way. You set the amount, and you can change or cancel it whenever you like.

Frequently Asked Questions

The gold price updates continuously whenever global precious metals markets are open. Spot prices can change every few seconds as buyers and sellers react to economic data, central bank announcements, geopolitical events, currency movements, and shifts in investor demand.

The global spot gold market is generally closed on weekends, so the official spot price typically remains unchanged from the market close on Friday until trading resumes on Sunday evening (U.S. time). However, some dealers may adjust premiums or pricing based on anticipated market conditions or overnight risk.

There is no single daily update time because the spot gold price is quoted continuously while international markets are open, beginning Sunday evening and running through Friday afternoon (U.S. time). Many websites refresh prices every few seconds to reflect live market activity.

No single person, company, or government sets the price of gold. Instead, the global spot price is determined by continuous trading on major exchanges and over-the-counter markets, where buyers and sellers establish the market value in real time.

Most dealers use the same underlying spot price but apply different premiums based on factors such as product type, inventory levels, operating costs, shipping, and market demand. As a result, two dealers may quote different prices for the same gold coin or bar even though the underlying market price is identical.

There is no reliable time of year when gold is consistently the cheapest. Gold prices are driven primarily by economic conditions, interest rates, inflation expectations, currency movements, and investor sentiment, making seasonal patterns far less important than broader market forces.

It depends on which markets are open. If major global gold trading centers are closed for a holiday, price movement may be limited or paused, but if other international markets remain open, the spot price can continue to fluctuate throughout the day.

Conclusion

So how often does the gold price change? Every few seconds while the market is open, 23 hours a day, five days a week. It freezes on weekends. The LBMA benchmarks it twice each business day. And it stops mattering the moment you confirm an order, because that price becomes yours.

The movement is constant. Your price does not have to be.

Money Metals updates prices live all day and keeps premiums low, so you can see exactly what you are paying above spot.

A Vote of No Confidence! Are Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight?

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

A Vote of No Confidence! Are the Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight?

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and his minions are talking tough on inflation. But they haven't done anything.

At the July Fed meeting, the central bank elected to hold rates steady for the sixth time, despite price inflation remaining persistently well above the stated 2 percent target. Based on the market reaction, investors are beginning to think the Fed is surrendering to inflation and will not raise rates again.

In this week's Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey discusses the dichotomy between the Fed's words and its actions, explains why the markets are right to lack confidence in the Fed, and outlines how a surrender to inflation will impact the precious metals markets.

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Mike opens the show with a hypothetical scenario.

"What if I told you I was going to run a marathon? In fact, every time I see you, I talk about running this marathon. I show you my running shoes. I explain my training plan. I get a subscription to a running magazine. I buy running shorts. And yet, I never actually run. Would you believe I’m really running a marathon?

"Of course not.

"In the immortal words of Toby Keith, you would need a little less talk and a lot more action before you would have any faith in my marathon ambitions, right?

"I listen to a podcast called Sportsday Tampa Bay regularly, and the host is fond of saying, “If you have audio and video, believe the video. In other words, believe the actions you see over the words people say.

"Since Kevin Warsh stepped into his new role as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he’s been talking tough, insisting the central bank will not tolerate price inflation running hotter than the mythical 2 percent target. He doubled down on that messaging after the July FOMC meeting, saying, “You’ve heard this before, but we will deliver price stability.”

"But what has the Fed actually done?

"Nothing.

"And the markets are already starting to lose faith in the Warsh-led central bank’s willingness to tackle the inflation problem."

Last week, the Fed held its second FOMC meeting of the Kevin Warsh era. While it wasn't a foregone conclusion, the central bank held interest rates steady at between 3.5 and 3.75 percent, with three dissenting members voting for a quarter-point hike.

"In summary, the Federal Reserve is talking a lot about fighting inflation, but it isn't doing a lot to fight inflation."

Mike pointed out that Warsh is clearly trying to put his stamp on the Fed. One of the big changes is the new Fed chair's unwillingness to signal the next move.

"He’s made it clear he will provide much less 'forward guidance' than Jerome Powell. In other words, he doesn’t want the central bank to signal its intentions. So far, he has stuck to that commitment. There was genuine uncertainty in the market as to what the Fed would do."

Mike notes that markets aren't fans of uncertainty.

"Here’s the thing though. Even if you don’t provide clear forward guidance, the markets will concoct some. Markets are forward-thinking. So, if it’s not clear what’s going to happen, they’ll make something up and run with it."

Of course, if they're wrong, that means there will have to be a sharp correction. That means increased volatility.

Mike covers some of the highlights from the meeting and Warsh's press conference, emphasizing the Fed's tough talk on inflation.

"That all sounds great. Warsh comes off as a regular Paul Volker. But do you know what Volker did? He ran rates to 20 percent in 1980 to slay price inflation. Compare that to Warsh, who has raised rates – not at all."

Mike reminds listeners that he's been skeptical of the Fed's ability to tackle inflation due to the Debt Black Hole dominating the economy. Now it appears the markets are beginning to agree. When the Fed announced it would hold rates steady, rates on the long end of the Treasury yield curve ticked up.

"Movement in Treasury yields indicates that investors don’t believe the central bank will follow through on its hawkish rhetoric."

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In other words, the markets seem to be signaling they don't think the Fed is going to raise rates at all. Several mainstream analysts have pointed this out, including a former Fed employee who now works at Citigroup.

"He highlighted a problem and gave no strategy for solving it other than, 'I'm a hawk, trust me,' and the markets wanted more than that. I think part of it is if you lean too far into future hikes, then he's disappointing the White House. And it is a balancing act between Warsh the hawk, which he is, and trying to stay on sides relative to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

Mike also noted that Warsh has hinted that he might move the inflation goalposts. In other words, there is talk about changing the inflation target to make it easier to achieve.

Mike summed up the situation using a quote from a Reuters report that said, "'The combination of Warsh's repeated assertions of the need to tame inflation with no action to move it toward the 2 percent target and a hint that the goalposts themselves may change' was behind the recent jump in yields on the long end of the curve."

How will this impact gold and silver?

Mike argues that a surrender to inflation is ultimately bullish for precious metals.

"While higher interest rates on the long end of the curve could be considered bearish (given that gold and silver are non-yielding assets), higher inflation is bullish because the metals are historically an inflation hedge."

Mike also emphasizes that you need to pay attention to real interest rates, not just the nominal rates quoted on TV.

"The real interest rate is simply the stated rate you see on the news adjusted for price inflation. When you factor in real rates, it’s easy to see higher yields aren’t necessarily bearish for gold and silver. It may feel like you’re earning a good yield, but your gains are eaten up by inflation."

Mike sums it up this way.

"Summing it all up, Warsh will undoubtedly continue to talk tough on inflation. But remember, watch the video. It appears that’s exactly what the markets are doing."

Mike wraps up the show explaining his earlier assertion that the central bank may move the goalposts and change its inflation target to make it easier to achieve.

While inflation talk typically centers on the CPI, the Fed prefers the PCE.

"This metric is actually part of the GDP calculation. I wrote an article yesterday on the difference between the PCE and the CPI and why the Fed likes the PCE better. The short version is that two price inflation measures rely on significantly different methodological approaches, and central bankers prefer the PCE because it understates price inflation more than the CPI."

Mike says this underscores the fact that inflation is the plan.

"And part of that plan is making you think it’s not that bad. The government needs constant money printing to facilitate the borrowing and spending. Big government grows on inflation. Even if Warsh gets inflation under control, that means your money is being devalued 2 percent per year. That’s more than 10 percent every five years. That’s the plan. And the reality will always be worse than they’re telling you because they’re calculating 'inflation' using formulas they can manipulate to their advantage. The bottom line is your money will be worth less than it is today. Period. So, you need to plan accordingly."

Mike closes the show with a call to action. Call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today. The recent correction in gold prices provides a buying opportunity, but that window won't stay open forever.

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/18/golds-role-as-an-inflation-hedge-in-the-21st-century-003263";>Gold's Role as an Inflation Hedge in the 21st Century

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/what-is-the-pce-and-why-is-it-the-feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-005110";>What Is the PCE and Why Is It the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?

https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-happens-to-gold-prices-during-inflation";>What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation?

Gold Spot Price vs Futures - Cost of Carry and Contango Explained - Roll Costs, Breakeven Timing, and Bullion Premiums - Money Metals

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

It happens to every new gold investor. You go online and see the gold spot price: let’s say it’s around $4,081.65. Now, let’s say the front-month COMEX futures contract is $4,103.80.

It’s for the same metal. You see the two figures at the same moment.

And yet, the gold spot price vs futures price is $22.15 apart. So, what does that mean for your investment?

The https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold spot price and the gold futures price are not in conflict, and neither one is wrong.

Spot is the price for https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-does-spot-price-mean";>immediate settlement.

A futures contract is a price agreed today for delivery on a set date weeks or months out. The difference between them has a name and a formula: the cost of carry.

The cost of carry is worth understanding before you buy anything. It explains why a futures position gets more expensive the longer you hold it, and why the futures price quoted in financial headlines is not the number your bullion order prices against.

Gold Spot Price vs. Futures Price: The Short Answer

The difference between spot price vs futures price comes down to when the metal changes hands. Spot gold settles in about two days, while a gold futures contract sets a price now for delivery on a fixed date months away.

That gap in timing shapes every other difference between the two. It changes what you own, what you pay up front, and what the position costs you to hold.

Gold spot price vs. futures price at a glance

Attribute	Spot Price	Gold Futures
What it prices	Metal for immediate settlement, about two days	A contract for delivery on a set future date
Where it’s set	The London OTC market and the COMEX front month	COMEX contract months (GC)
What you own	The metal, or a claim on it	A contract obligation
Capital required	The full purchase price	Exchange margin, a fraction of the value
Ongoing cost	Storage and insurance	A rollover cost at each expiry
Expiry	None	A fixed contract month
Typical holder	People who want to hold metal	Traders and hedgers

COMEX gold trades six active contract months: February, April, June, August, October, and December.

For most buyers, spot is the number that matters. Dealers price physical gold off spot and then add a premium.

Why Gold Futures Trade Above Spot: Cost of Carry

Gold futures almost always cost more than spot gold. The reason is simple. Someone has to hold the metal until the delivery date, and holding metal is not free.

Three costs get added to the spot price.

Storage, because a vault charges a fee to keep the bars safe.

Insurance, because someone has to cover the metal while it sits there.

Financing, because cash tied up in gold could have earned interest instead.

Add those three costs to the spot and you get the futures price, or the cost of carry.

The Formula

F = (S + storage cost) × (1 + r)ᵗ

F is the futures price. S is the spot price, set in the London OTC market run by the LBMA and on COMEX. Storage cost covers vaulting and insurance for the period. The letter r is the risk-free rate, the yield on short-term Treasury bills. And t is the time to delivery, measured in years.

Cost of carry, worked against a live quote — 30 July 2026

Input	Value
Spot gold (S)	$4,081.65
Storage and insurance	0.50% a year, or $1.62
Risk-free rate (r) — 3-month Treasury bill yield	3.86%
Time to delivery (t)	29 days, or 0.08 years
Theoretical futures price (F)	$4,095.58
Actual COMEX August contract	$4,103.80
Difference	$8.22

All figures in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Rates and prices move daily; this example is dated and will not stay current.

The formula gets close, but it does not land on the nose. Two things explain the rest.

First, the two prices are not quoted at the same instant. Spot moves all day. So does the contract.

Second, traders bid up the contract when they want gold exposure right now. That extra demand shows up in the price.

The gap between spot and futures has a name: the “basis.” As a contract nears expiration, the basis shrinks toward zero, because the two prices have to meet on delivery day.

Traders call that drift convergence. It is why the front-month contract stays near spot, while a contract dated a year out does not.

One warning. Rates move continuously, and so does gold. These figures are from July 29, 2026. Run the math again with fresh numbers before you use it to make an investment decision.

A Real Spot-to-Futures Spread, Worked

Theory is easy. Here is the actual COMEX gold curve, pulled on July 30, 2026.

COMEX gold futures curve — 30 July 2026

Contract month	Price ($/oz)	Premium over Aug contract	Annualized carry
August 2026 (GCQ26 · front month)	4,103.80	— (baseline contract)	— (baseline contract)
October 2026 (GCV26)	4,131.20	+$27.40	4.00%
December 2026 (GCZ26)	4,164.20	+$60.40	4.40%
February 2027 (GCG27)	4,207.50	+$103.70	5.07%
April 2027 (GCJ27)	4,240.20	+$136.40	4.99%
June 2027 (GCM27)	4,265.50	+$161.70	4.73%

Prices in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Annualized carry is the premium over the August contract, divided by the August price, then scaled to a full year. Source: CME Group.

When you look at this data, remember this principle: read the shape, not a single number.

In this case, the curve slopes up. Each contract further out costs more than the one before it. That upward slope is called contango, and it is what the cost of carry looks like when you plot it. Every extra month of storage, insurance, and financing gets priced into the next contract along.

Now look at the last column. The annualized carry sits between 4.00% and 5.1% across the whole curve. That is close to the 3-month Treasury bill yield of 3.86%, plus a small charge for storage.

The market is not forecasting a gold rally here. It is charging you the cost of waiting.

A flat curve would mean that the carry is near zero. An inverted curve, where the near contracts cost more than the far ones, is called backwardation.

That is a rare occurrence in the gold market. When it does happen, it usually occurs because of trouble with sourcing physical metal for near-term delivery.

One note on the spot price. Spot gold was $4,081.65 when this snapshot was taken, which put the August contract about $22 above it. Treat that gap loosely. Spot trades in the London OTC market and futures trade on COMEX, so the two quotes rarely tick in step. The gaps between contract months are the firmer measure, because they all come from one exchange at one moment.

The rule of thumb outlasts the table. In a normal gold market, futures run above spot by roughly the short-term interest rate plus storage. Call it 4% to 5% a year at today’s rates. The prices change daily. The shape does not.

Contango and Backwardation: Reading the Gold Curve

The shape of the forward curve has two names, depending on which way it tilts.

Contango means later contracts cost more than nearer ones. This is the normal state for gold, and the cost of carry is the reason. Someone has to store, insure, and finance the metal until delivery, so more distant delivery costs more.

Gold sits in contango far more often than most commodities. Oil, wheat, and copper get consumed, so a refinery or a mill short of material this month will pay extra to get it now. That can push near prices above far ones.

In contrast, gold does not get used up. Almost every ounce of gold ever mined still exists, either in bullion form or in some form of commodity. With a huge above-ground stock and no industrial urgency, there is rarely a reason to pay more for metal today than for metal in June.

Backwardation is the reverse. Nearer contracts cost more than later ones. In gold this is rare. When it shows up, it points to physical tightness. Metal is hard to source for near-term delivery, and the people holding it will not part with it at the usual price. Gold moved into backwardation during the 2008 financial crisis, and it has surfaced briefly at other moments of market stress.

Traders once watched a single number for this: GOFO, the Gold Forward Offered Rate. The LBMA stopped publishing it on 30 January 2015, so the curve itself is now the signal you read.

Either way, convergence still holds. On delivery day the front contract and spot meet.

Here is why a physical buyer should care. Backwardation has historically coincided with tight wholesale supply and wider dealer premiums. That is an observation about market conditions, not a forecast about price.

Right now the curve slopes up. Gold is in contango, at a carry of roughly 4% to 5% a year.

The Roll Cost: What Futures Charge You for Holding On

A futures contract does not just sit there. It expires. If you want to keep the position, you have to sell the contract that is about to expire and buy the next one out. That is a rollover, and you pay the gap between the two contracts every time you do it.

Look back at the curve. Holding gold from the August 2026 contract through to June 2027 costs $161.70 an ounce in spread. That works out to about 4.7% a year. Roll four times or six times, it makes little difference. The cost is the carry, and the carry does not care how you slice it.

Physical metal charges you differently. You pay a premium over spot once, at purchase, and then storage if you vault it. A https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/american-gold-eagle/1-oz-gold-eagle-coins";>1 oz Gold American Eagle runs about 3.6% over spot at Money Metals today. A 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf runs about 2.1%. Depository storage runs about 0.49% a year, and nothing at all if you keep the metal yourself.

One cost repeats every year. The other lands once. That is the whole comparison.

Cost of holding one ounce of gold, futures versus physical — 30 July 2026

Holding period	Futures roll cost	Eagle premium + storage	Cheaper
3 months	1.18% ($48/oz)	3.67% ($150/oz)	Futures
6 months	2.37% ($97/oz)	3.80% ($155/oz)	Futures
1 year	4.73% ($193/oz)	4.04% ($165/oz)	Physical
3 years	14.19% ($579/oz)	5.02% ($205/oz)	Physical

Crossover: about 10 months. Assumes a futures carry of 4.73% a year, a 3.55% premium on a 1 oz Gold American Eagle, and depository storage at 0.49% a year on a spot price of $4,081.65. A lower-premium coin crosses over sooner — roughly six months at a 2.1% premium. Storage is billed at a $96 annual minimum, so the percentage rate applies only to larger holdings. Futures commissions and the bid-ask spread on each roll are not included.

The rule of thumb you will read elsewhere is that bullion gets cheaper than futures past about three months, or more than one rollover. At today’s numbers, that is too aggressive. Run the math and the crossover lands at roughly ten months for an Eagle and about six months for a lower-premium coin such as a Maple Leaf.

The premium you pay is what moves that date. Pay 4% over spot and futures stay cheaper for the better part of a year. Pay 2% and the crossover arrives in half that time. This is the practical case for buying low-premium bullion, and it is arithmetic rather than opinion.

There are two things left out of this table, both of which favor physical gold. Futures carry brokerage commissions and a bid-ask spread on every roll. Metal kept at home carries no storage fee at all.

Margin, Leverage, and Contract Specs

One COMEX gold contract (GC) covers 100 troy ounces. At roughly $4,081 an ounce, that is about $408,100 of gold in a single contract.

You do not post the full $408,100. You post margin, which is a good-faith deposit set by the exchange. Gold margin has typically run in the single digits as a share of contract value, which puts the leverage somewhere near ten to twenty times. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.margins.html";>CME publishes the current figures and raises them when volatility rises, so check the number rather than assume it.

Smaller contracts exist. Micro gold (MGC) covers 10 troy ounces, a tenth of the standard contract, and CME lists a 1-ounce gold contract as well.

This is the real appeal of futures, and it is worth saying plainly. A few thousand dollars can control exposure to far more metal than the same money would buy outright. Traders and hedgers use futures for exactly that reason.

The same leverage runs in reverse. If the price moves against you, the loss lands on the full contract value, not on your deposit. Fall below the maintenance level and you get a margin call: add cash, or the position gets closed for you. That can happen at the worst possible moment, and it does not pause to weigh whether your long-term view is right.

There is another practical note that investors should consider. Futures require a brokerage account with margin approval and a broker who clears them. Buying an ounce of gold does not.

Can You Take Delivery of Gold Futures?

Yes. COMEX gold is a physically settled contract, and a buyer who holds through the delivery period can end up with metal. However, let’s take a quick look at what that entails.

Delivery comes in whole contracts. One contract is 100 troy ounces, which is about $408,100 of gold at today’s price. There is no partial delivery. You cannot take eleven ounces.

The metal has to meet exchange standards for fineness, and the bars must come from a refiner on the exchange’s approved list. It sits in a licensed depository, not on your doorstep. You have to carry the position into the delivery month and follow the notice procedures your broker and the exchange require.

Very few people do any of this. The overwhelming majority of contracts get closed or rolled before delivery, because most people in this market want price exposure rather than bars.

Here is the part that matters most. What you receive is a warrant, a title document showing that a specific lot of metal in a specific vault belongs to you.

That is real ownership. However, it is not the same thing as metal you can hold, move, or sell without going through the depository first.

Compare that with buying an ounce of bullion.

No contract size floor.
No delivery window.
No depository account. If you would rather have metal held for you by professionals, https://www.moneymetals.com/vaultsecure";>VaultSecure does that without any of the contract mechanics.

Which Price Should You Watch When Buying Physical Gold?

Keep an eye on the spot price. Dealers price physical gold off the spot price and then add a premium. The futures quote in a news headline is not the number your order prices against.

So, does anybody actually buy gold at spot?

At the retail level, this essentially never happens. Exceptions may exist during times of special sales and deals held by exchanges. Spot is a wholesale reference for large, unfabricated quantities, the big bars that move between banks, refiners, and vaults.

Nobody turns those into coins for free. Refining, minting, packaging, shipping, insurance, and the dealer’s own margin all sit on top of the spot price. That stack becomes the premium you pay.

Here is what it looks like on a single coin today.

What one ounce of gold actually costs — 30 July 2026

Item	Price
Spot gold	$4,081.65
1 oz Gold American Eagle	$4,226.65
Premium over spot	$145.00 (3.55% over spot)

Prices shown are the lowest available tier and will vary with the product, the quantity ordered, and the payment method chosen. Spot and premiums both change throughout the trading day.

Lower-premium products cost less. A 1 oz Canadian Maple Leaf runs about $87 over spot, or 2.13%. Premiums also shift with the product you choose, the quantity you buy, and how you pay.

Finally, note that premiums move on their own. When retail demand surges, mints and dealers run short, and premiums widen even when spot has not moved at all. The reverse happens when demand cools off. That is why the futures curve tells you about carry and tells you nothing about what a coin costs this morning.

Check today’s spot price, then check the premium on the product you actually want.

Frequently Asked Questions

No. Spot is the price for gold settled almost immediately, usually within two days. A futures price is what a buyer and seller agree today for delivery on a set date months ahead. The two track each other closely and meet at expiry, but on any given day they sit at different levels. The gap between them is the cost of carry.

It depends on how long you hold. Futures cost less up front but charge a rollover spread every time a contract expires. Physical gold charges a premium once, at purchase, and then storage if you vault it. At current rates the crossover falls between six and ten months. Below that, futures are cheaper. Beyond that point, bullion is cheaper.

Neither is better in the abstract, because they answer different questions. Buying at spot through a dealer gets you metal you own outright, with no expiry date and no margin account. Futures give you leveraged price exposure that you have to roll or close before delivery. The choice turns on whether you want the metal or the exposure.

Leverage, mostly. One COMEX gold contract covers 100 troy ounces, but you post only a fraction of that value as margin, so a modest amount of capital controls a large position. Futures also trade nearly around the clock and carry no storage or insurance cost. The same leverage magnifies losses just as fast.

Not at the retail level. Spot is a wholesale reference for large, unfabricated bars moving between banks, refiners, and vaults. Turning those bars into coins, rounds, and fabricated bars costs money, so refining, minting, shipping, insurance, and dealer margin all get factored into the retail price. That addition is the premium. A common 1 oz gold coin runs roughly 2% to 4% over spot.

Because someone has to carry the metal until delivery, and carrying it is not free. Storage, insurance, and the interest given up on the cash tied up in gold all get priced into the contract. Add those to spot and you get the futures price. Traders call this the cost of carry. It currently runs about 4% to 5% a year.

Three things can happen. Most holders close the position before expiry. Others roll it, selling the expiring contract and buying a later one. A small minority stand for delivery and receive a warrant for metal held in a licensed depository. As expiry nears, the contract price converges with spot.

Conclusion

The spread between spot and futures is not a mystery. It is the cost of carry — storage, insurance, and financing — and the market prices it in the open for anyone to read. The difference is who pays it and how often. A futures holder pays it again at every rollover. A bullion buyer pays a premium once.

That is the whole comparison in a sentence: futures are cheaper for months, bullion is cheaper for years, and at today’s rates the line falls somewhere between six and ten months depending on the premium you pay.

Central Bank Gold Buying Accelerated Again in June

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold buying accelerated again in June as central banks took advantage of the softer price environment to add to their reserves.

According to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council, central banks globally added a net 51 tonnes of gold to their reserves in May. That was up from 41 tonnes in May

The Gold Buyers

Poland has consistently led the world in gold accumulation over the last couple of years, and that trend continued in June. The National Bank of Poland added another 19 tonnes to its holdings.

So far this year, the Polish central bank has expanded its gold reserves by 82 tonnes.

The National Bank of Poland now holds 633 tonnes of gold, making up about 30 percent of its reserves.

Poland led central bank gold buying in 2025, adding 102 tonnes of gold to its holdings.

Late last year, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/23/poland-announces-plans-for-another-expansion-in-gold-reserves-004631";>National Bank of Poland issued a statement saying it plans to purchase up to 150 more tonnes of gold, raising its holdings to a maximum of 700 tonnes.

NBP Governor Adam Glapiński said the increase in gold reserves would elevate Poland to an “elite” status.

“This will place Poland among the elite 10 countries with the largest gold reserves in the world.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/05/19/poland-has-more-gold-than-the-european-central-bank-004053";>The Polish central bank already holds more gold than the European Central Bank. To put the country's gold reserves in context, the NBP only held 14 tonnes of gold in 1996.

China has reported increases in its official gold reserves for 21 straight months, and it has ramped up the pace of accumulation. In June, China reported a 15-tonne increase in its official gold reserves. That follows a 10-tonne official purchase in May.

Year-to-date, the Chinese Central Bank has officially increased its gold holdings by 40 tonnes. China now officially holds 2,346 tonnes of the yellow metal, accounting for about 9 percent of its total reserves.

Notice the emphasis on "official."

China is among the central banks that are likely to hold significantly more gold than they publicly disclose. As Jan Nieuwenhuijs has reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/02/chinas-gold-reserves-going-through-the-roof-003956";>data parsed by the renowned Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank is currently sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing – more than TWICE what has been publicly admitted.

The mainstream is finally taking notice. Last month, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/25/goldman-sachs-picks-up-on-chinas-secret-gold-reserve-expansion-005095";>Goldman Sachs picked up on China’s undisclosed purchases, and analysts at BMO Capital estimated that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/30/could-chinas-gold-reserves-surpass-the-us-within-five-years-005101";>Chinese gold reserves could surpass the U.S.’s within five years.

Uzbekistan sold gold in April but flipped back to buying in May, adding 9 tonnes of gold to its reserves. The Uzbeks remained in a buying mood in June, expanding its reserves by 9 tonnes.

The Uzbek central bank has primarily been in a buying mood this year. Despite April’s 1-tonne sale, Uzbekistan has increased its gold holdings by 412 tonnes. The country holds about 87 percent of its reserves in gold.

It is not unusual for central banks that buy from domestic sources, such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, to pivot back and forth between buying and selling.

Speaking of Kazakhstan, its central bank increased its gold holdings by 7 tonnes in June, following a 7-tonne purchase in May. The Kazakhs have increased their gold reserves by 27 tonnes net this year. Its 368 tonnes of gold account for about 78 percent of its reserves.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore bought 4 tonnes of gold in May. It was the country’s first purchase since September 2025. It followed up with another 7-tonne expansion of its gold reserves in June.

The Czech Republic has been one of the most consistent gold buyers over the last few years. The trend continued in June with yet another 2-tonne purchase.

The Czechs have adopted a slow, steady approach, buying gold for 39 straight months. The country added 20 tonnes to its holdings last year. It now holds 81 tonnes of gold. Czech officials say they plan to increase gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2028.

Other buyers in June included Jordan (3 tonnes), Ghana (1 tonne), and Georgia (1 tonne).

The Gold Sellers

The 63 tonnes in net gold purchases in June were reduced by 11 tonnes of net selling.

Russia was once again the largest seller in June, reducing its reserves by 9 tonnes. The Russian central bank has https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/23/russia-continues-to-sell-gold-to-support-its-economy-005087";>consistently sold gold this year as it copes with the impacts of economic sanctions and a wartime economy.

So far this year, the Russian central bank has reduced its gold reserves by 43 tonnes, to 2,292 tonnes.

After holding reserves steady in April, the Central Bank of Turkey sold 1 tonne of gold in May.

Turkey has been selling small amounts of gold to support its currency amid the U.S.-Iran War oil shock. The Turkish central bank decreased its gold reserves by 2 tonnes in June following a 1-tonne sale in May.

Turkey https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/27/turkey-sells-60-tonnes-of-gold-to-backstop-lira-004792";>sold a large amount of gold earlier this year to backstop the lira.

The Big Picture

Looking at the trends, central bank gold buying moderated in 2025 but remained far above the recent historical average. Official net full-year buying came in at 863.3 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, charting the lowest level since 2021.

However, although central bank gold purchases declined last year, they remained well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record. The all-time high was set in 2022 (1,136 tonnes). It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

The surging gold price was likely a factor in slowing central bank gold accumulation. As the World Gold Council put it, the higher price prompted “a more cautious approach.”

“This highlights that central banks are not insensitive to price dynamics, even as their long-term strategic interest in gold remains firmly intact.”

In the latest https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/25/survey-central-bankers-plan-to-keep-stacking-gold-005007";>World Gold Council survey, central bankers overwhelmingly said they expect global gold reserves to continue growing in the next 12 months. They seem to be putting their money where their mouths are. With prices moderating, it appears that several central banks are taking advantage of the recent correction to accumulate gold more quickly.

What Is the PCE and Why Is It the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

When we talk about inflation, we usually focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index. What’s the difference and why does the Fed prefer the PCE?

The two price inflation measures rely on significantly different methodological approaches, and central bankers prefer the PCE because it understates price inflation more than the CPI.

Keep in mind that neither of these metrics measures “inflation” as https://youtu.be/lmvFyBBJORM?si=41RZUu2gk-r5mqg-"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">historically defined by economists (a rise in the supply of money and credit). CPI and PCE measure price inflation (a symptom of monetary inflation).

CPI

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As the name suggests, the CPI measures changes in prices paid by consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces CPI data utilizing household surveys and price collection.

To determine the (price) inflation rate, the BLS uses a “basket” of goods. They created various spending categories, including shelter, food, energy, healthcare, etc., using household surveys. Analysts collect around 80,000 prices from retailers and service providers each month and calculate the change in the price of that entire basket using a complex system of formulas and hedonic adjustments.

This basket of goods remains fixed, generally for about 2 years, and allows much less substitution between categories than the PCE. Even if the price of beef skyrockets, the formula generally assumes consumers will continue buying the same amount of beef until the next basket update.

Many economists prefer CPI for long-term planning because it doesn’t attempt to estimate substitution effects (an extremely subjective undertaking) and is rarely revised after publication, making it a more stable metric for contracts and cost-of-living adjustments.

However, the CPI has its limitations. We know the CPI understates price inflation because https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/15/the-cpi-lie-price-inflation-is-even-worse-than-advertised-002930";>the formula was adjusted to do so in the 1990s. Based on the formula used in the 1970s, CPI is closer to double the official numbers. So, if the BLS used the old formula, we’d be looking at CPI closer to 6 percent. And using an honest formula, it would probably be worse than that.

PCE

The PCE is a much broader measure of prices and is a component of GDP. This metric not only includes purchases made directly by households, but it also factors in purchases made on behalf of consumers, including employer-provided health insurance and spending by non-profit organizations serving households.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis generates the PCE report.

Instead of asking consumers what they buy, the PCE compiles data based on what businesses sold. It compiles information from a wide variety of sources, including Census Bureau retail surveys, manufacturer shipment data, hospital and physician revenues, utility revenues, airline ticket sales, and financial services, along with other business and government data.

Analysts use this data to estimate total consumer spending in each category. They then weight each category based on how much consumers actually spent by calculating current expenditure shares. They update the weight assigned to each category monthly.

Significantly, BEA analysts try to estimate the substitution effect when prices rise. Their formulas assume people will buy less beef when the price spikes, and the formula will reflect this assumption.

You can think of the difference between the CPI and the PCE this way:

CPI asks: "How much more expensive is it to buy the same basket of goods and services?"
PCE asks: "How much more expensive is it to maintain the same overall standard of consumption, even if consumers adjust what they buy?"

Why Does the Fed Love the PCE?

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As I mentioned, the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE. It officially set 2 percent core PCE as its target in 2012.

Why?

Central bankers will tell you the PCE provides broader coverage of consumer spending, that its chain-weighting formula better captures evolving consumer behavior, that it is consistent with other data sets, including the GDP, and that the frequent revisions improve accuracy.

That all sounds good, but there’s a simpler explanation.

The PCE understates price inflation even more than the CPI.

In other words, it consistently tells a better inflation story. And central bankers like nothing better than a sanguine inflation story. If they can convince you inflation isn’t that bad, they can expand the money supply at a faster rate without you throwing a fit.

The PCE generally runs 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points lower than CPI over longer periods.

Both the CPI and PCE formulas create multiple opportunities to skew the numbers lower. Each assumption built into the formula was made up by a government functionary with a bias and agenda.

The PCE’s substitution metrics create a powerful way for number crunchers to skew the data and make price inflation look tamer than it is.

Never forget that government people have a vested interest in making inflation look as tame as possible. In their minds, inflation isn’t a bug. It’s a feature. Their ability to inflate the money supply lays the foundation for big government borrowing and spending. But monetary inflation comes with a nasty side-effect – price inflation. The better they can hide this monetary debasement, the longer they can get away with it without unpleasant political backlash from the citizenry.

Government number-crunchers also want to keep price inflation as low as possible because the PCE is used to “deflate” GDP. If price inflation is lower, it makes real growth look better.

Government data should always be taken with a grain of salt. Never assume that government number-crunchers are unbiased seekers of truth. The numbers may give us some sense of reality. And they are what we have, so we have to use them. However, the government always operates with an underlying propaganda motive. Keep that in mind as you digest the data and the spin.

Who Sets the Gold Price? - LBMA Auction, COMEX Futures, and the 24-Hour Spot Market - Manipulation Cases, Premium Breakdown, and the Shift to Shanghai - Money Metals

Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

No single authority sets the price of gold.

Not a government.

Not a central bank.

Not the Federal Reserve.

Instead, the price moves continuously throughout market hours as banks and bullion dealers around the world quote each other prices to buy and sell.

Two numbers are actually set on purpose. The LBMA Gold Price is produced by an electronic auction, operated twice each London business day by ICE Benchmark Administration with fifteen participating banks.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange conducts its own auction twice daily, priced in Chinese yuan. Both are benchmarks, essentially photographs of the market taken at a particular moment, rather than the market itself.

Everything else you see is ordinary trading. The spot price on your screen comes from banks quoting one another, and the futures price comes from COMEX. Your dealer then builds a retail quote from a live feed plus a premium.

In short, “who sets the gold price” is the wrong question. The https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold price is discovered rather than decided. So, let’s talk about how that discovery happens.

The Short Answer: Three Different Numbers, Three Different Jobs

No single organization sets the gold price. Instead, the price is discovered through continuous trading in the global over-the-counter (OTC) market and COMEX futures market. Twice each London business day, the LBMA Gold Price is established through an electronic auction that serves as a benchmark for contracts and institutional pricing.

Three gold prices, three different jobs

The number	Who produces it	How often	What it is actually used for
LBMA Gold Price (AM and PM)	ICE Benchmark Administration, through an electronic auction with 15 direct participants	Twice each London business day, at 10:30 and 15:00 London time	Contract settlement, ETF net asset values, mining royalties, central bank accounting, refiner invoices
Spot price	Over-the-counter market makers, meaning bullion banks and large trading houses quoting bid and ask	Continuously, roughly 23 hours a day, Sunday evening through Friday afternoon	The reference number on charts, price apps, and dealer websites
COMEX futures price	CME Group's exchange, through open electronic trading	Continuously during exchange hours	Hedging, leverage, and institutional positioning. The front-month contract is what drives most headlines

The distinction most explanations miss: the LBMA Gold Price is a benchmark, not the market. It is a photograph of the market taken at two fixed moments each day, created specifically so that contracts have something objective to settle against.

How the LBMA Gold Auction Actually Works: Round by Round

There is a daily occasion when somebody could say the gold price is “set.” It happens twice, it lasts a few minutes, and almost nobody outside the trade has seen how it works.

That occasion is the London Bullion Market Association auction. When this auction takes place, it sets the going price of gold, which then fluctuates throughout market hours. Here is what happens inside the auction.

Who the 15 Direct Participants Are and How a Bank Becomes One

Only fifteen firms can place orders directly in the LBMA gold auction. These are called direct participants.

They are large bullion banks and trading houses that ICE Benchmark Administration has approved and onboarded. To qualify, a firm generally must be an LBMA member, be appropriately regulated, meet the administrator's credit and operational standards, and be able to clear and settle Loco London gold.

Everyone else takes part indirectly.

Refiners, miners, ETF sponsors, central banks, and coin dealers all place orders through a direct participant. That participant then folds those orders into its own.

So, while the auction is narrow at the point of entry. However, it remains wide in what it represents.

The 30-second Round Mechanic

The chair opens the auction by publishing a starting price. Participants then have thirty seconds to enter, change, or cancel orders at that price, stated as a volume of gold they want to buy or sell.

When the thirty seconds expire, order entry freezes. The system then compares total buying interest against total selling interest. The gap between the two is called the imbalance.

Orders are anonymous, but the aggregate buy and sell volumes are published on screen in real time. Anyone watching can see the imbalance move as the auction runs.

The 10,000 Ounce Imbalance Threshold

For gold, the standard imbalance threshold is 10,000 troy ounces, or roughly 311 kilograms. If the imbalance at the end of a round exceeds that figure, the auction has not balanced. The chair adjusts the price, higher when buyers outnumber sellers and lower when the reverse is true, and a new thirty second round begins.

When the imbalance finally falls inside the threshold, the auction is finished. That round's price becomes the LBMA Gold Price for the morning or the afternoon. Most auctions settle within a handful of rounds and take only a few minutes.

This mechanic is why the benchmark is described as tradeable. The published price is not an opinion, an estimate, or a quote that someone submitted. It is the price at which real orders actually cleared.

One round of the LBMA gold auction. Rounds repeat until buying and selling come within 10,000 troy ounces of each other, which usually takes a few minutes. Source: ICE Benchmark Administration gold auction specification.

What Happens to the Leftover Imbalance

Here is the detail that almost never appears in explanations of the auction. Whatever imbalance remains at the end, up to that 10,000 ounce threshold, is shared equally among all fifteen direct participants. That includes:

participants who placed no orders in the final round
participants who never logged in at all

The effect is that participation is not really optional. Every direct participant ends the auction holding a small share of the residual at the final price, so each has a standing reason to help the auction balance rather than sit out. It also explains why the threshold is kept small relative to the volumes these firms trade all day.

Why the Chair Matters and Why It's No Longer a Phone Call

The auction that runs today is only about a decade old. From 1919 until 2015, the London gold fixing was a meeting. Five member firms gathered at the offices of N M Rothschild, and from 2004 they held the meeting by telephone instead. Members talked until they agreed on a price, and the process was not published as it happened.

On March 20, 2015, that arrangement was replaced by the LBMA Gold Price, with ICE Benchmark Administration as the administrator. The differences matter. The auction is now:

electronic
auditable
published in real time
tradeable
physically settled
run by a regulated benchmark administrator
assessed against international benchmark principles.

The reform did not settle every argument about gold pricing. However, it made a significant change in what could be verified about the auction.

Where the Price Actually Lives Between the Two Auctions

The auctions produce two prices a day. The remaining twenty three hours are where the number on your screen originates.

The OTC market, the part nobody photographs

Between the two auctions, gold trades over the counter. Banks and large dealers transact directly with one another in Loco London metal, with no exchange sitting in the middle.

Because there is no exchange, there is no official closing price for gold. Data vendors that require one construct it themselves, typically by capturing a documented snapshot of quotes at a fixed time each day.

COMEX and the active month

Futures pricing feeds back into the spot market continuously. Financial media almost always quote the front month contract, which is the nearest COMEX contract carrying meaningful volume.

An exchange for physical trade, known as an EFP, connects that New York futures price to actual metal sitting in London vaults. The spread between the two is normally only a few dollars an ounce.

Trading hours and the 45 minute gap

Gold trades from Sunday at 6:00 pm Eastern, when Asian markets open, until Friday at 4:30 pm Eastern. Every weekday there is also a 45 minute break, from 5:15 to 6:00 pm Eastern. If you have ever watched a gold price sit motionless for three quarters of an hour, that scheduled pause is the explanation.

One trading day, mapped: where the gold price is being made at each hour

Time (Eastern)	What is happening	Where the price is being made
6:00 pm, Sunday to Friday	Asian over-the-counter session opens	Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong
About 10:15 pm	Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price, morning auction (10:15 am Beijing)	Shanghai Gold Exchange, physical 1 kg bars, priced in yuan per gram
3:00 am	London opens and liquidity deepens	Loco London OTC market
5:30 am	LBMA Gold Price AM (10:30 am London)	ICE Benchmark Administration auction
8:20 am	COMEX floor session opens	CME Group
10:00 am	LBMA Gold Price PM (3:00 pm London)	ICE Benchmark Administration auction
1:30 pm	COMEX active session settles	CME Group
5:15 pm to 6:00 pm	Market closed, the daily 45 minute break	Nowhere

Who Does Not Set the Gold Price

It becomes easier to understand who sets the gold price once you rule out the institutions most often blamed for it.

The United States government last set the price of gold in 1971. From 1934 the Treasury had fixed it at $35 an ounce, and the official price was abandoned entirely by 1973. The Treasury still records its reserve at a statutory $42.22 an ounce, though that figure is an accounting convention left over from the 1970s rather than a price anyone can use in a transaction.
The Federal Reserve influences gold more powerfully than any institution on this list. It does so through real interest rates and the strength of the dollar. Nevertheless, influence is not authority. The Fed publishes no gold price and does not own gold outright, holding certificates issued against the Treasury's reserve instead.
Central banks have been the largest source of new gold demand in recent years, purchasing hundreds of tonnes annually. Buying on that scale certainly moves the price, but that is not the same as setting one. A central bank pays the prevailing market rate exactly like everyone else.
Mints decide the premium charged over spot on the coins they produce, including the United States Mint, the Perth Mint, and the Royal Canadian Mint. The metal price underneath that premium is handed to them by the market.
Your dealer constructs a quote from a live spot feed and then adds a premium. The premium is entirely the dealer's decision, but the metal price beneath it is not.
The LBMA lends its name to the benchmark without operating the auction, which surprises people. ICE Benchmark Administration runs the auction under formal regulatory supervision.

Why the Price You Pay Isn't the Price on the Screen

Now for the practical question: if nobody sets the gold price, why is the price you are quoted never the price on the chart?

Spot is a wholesale price, not a retail one

The number you see quoted is a wholesale price. It refers to unallocated metal held in a London vault, traded in Good Delivery bars of roughly 400 ounces, between institutions moving millions of dollars at a time.

A single one ounce American Gold Eagle in your hand is a completely different product. It has been refined, struck, insured, shipped, and made available in a quantity you can actually buy.

There are always two prices, never one

Even at the wholesale level, there is never a single price. There is a bid, meaning the price at which a buyer will purchase, and an ask, meaning the price at which a seller will sell. Charts and headlines generally show something between the two, so the advertised figure is already an approximation. Every participant in the market, from a London bullion bank to your local coin shop, operates inside a spread.

What actually makes up a premium

The premium is the difference between spot and the retail price of a specific product. It covers refining and fabrication, minting, distribution and insurance, and the dealer's own margin.

It also reflects something most buyers never consider, which is the immediate availability of that specific coin or bar. A common one ounce round and a scarce fractional coin carry very different premiums on the same day, despite containing identical metal.

Why premiums move on their own

Premiums also move independently of the metal price, which surprises people. During periods of intense retail buying, mints and refiners reach production capacity while demand keeps climbing.

Premiums have spiked sharply even in weeks when spot itself was falling. The metal price comes from wholesale markets. The premium comes from the physical availability of finished products.

What to watch when you buy

So three numbers are worth tracking whenever you buy. Spot tells you about timing. The premium tells you what you are paying for that specific product. The gap between a dealer's buying price and selling price tells you the round trip cost of ownership.

One ounce gold coin, priced line by line (illustrative figures)

Line	Amount	What it represents
Spot price	$4,000.00	The wholesale number on the chart, for 400 oz bars in a London vault
Premium	$180.00	Refining, minting, distribution, insurance, dealer margin, and current availability of this coin
What you pay	$4,180.00	The delivered price of one finished, deliverable coin
Dealer buy-back, same day	$4,040.00	What a dealer would pay you for the identical coin that afternoon
Round trip cost	$140.00	3.3% of the purchase price, the real cost of buying and immediately selling

Is the Gold Price Manipulated? What the Record Actually Shows

This question deserves a straight answer, and the honest one is more interesting than either extreme. Traders have been fined for manipulating precious metals prices. This is a documented historical occurrence. However, it is also not the same thing as proving that the gold price is permanently controlled.

The cases that were actually prosecuted

In May 2014, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority fined Barclays £26 million over failings connected to the https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldfix.asp";>London Gold Fixing. A former trader had influenced the afternoon fix on a single day in June 2012, which let the bank avoid a $3.9 million payment to a customer. The trader was fined and banned from the industry, and Barclays repaid the customer in full.

In 2016, Deutsche Bank settled private American antitrust lawsuits for $60 million over gold and $38 million over silver. Settlements are not admissions of guilt. The bank also agreed to hand over records that plaintiffs then used against other institutions.

In September 2020, JPMorgan agreed to pay $920 million to resolve investigations by American regulators and the Justice Department. Between 2008 and 2016, traders had placed orders in precious metals and Treasury futures that they never intended to execute.

The practice is called spoofing. It was the largest penalty the futures regulator had ever imposed for that conduct.

What those cases were, and what they were not

Look closely at what each case involved. Traders placed or timed orders to push a price briefly in their own favor, sometimes for a matter of seconds. Prosecutors described misconduct by named individuals during specific windows. None of the cases established a permanent ceiling on the gold price.

That distinction cuts in both directions. Anyone claiming nothing has ever happened is simply wrong about the record. Anyone treating these cases as proof of a decades long suppression scheme is claiming something the cases did not find.

What changed in 2015

The Barclays attempt occurred in 2012 while the auction was still conducted by phone. Five banks agreed to a price on a call, and nothing was published while it happened.

To ensure this did not happen again, the auction transitioned to an electronic format. It retains this format to this day, with the aggregate buying and selling volumes appearing on screen in real time.

It is tradeable, physically settled, operated by a regulated administrator, and assessed against international benchmark standards. Leftover imbalance is shared equally, which removes some incentive to sit back and watch.

None of that guarantees perfect conduct. However, the change in system does mean that the specific weakness exploited in 2012 no longer exists in the same form.

The structural criticism that has not gone away

One criticism survives all of this, and it concerns sheer volume. London clearing statistics show many millions of ounces changing hands every business day. The world's mines produce roughly 115 million ounces in an entire year. Roughly a week of London clearing therefore matches a year of global mine supply, and clearing captures only the net figure. Gross trading is far larger.

Critics argue that a market where paper claims dwarf available metal cannot price that metal honestly. The counterargument is that this ratio is normal for commodity derivatives. Most participants are hedging and never intend to take delivery, exactly as in oil or wheat markets. Heavy volume is also what makes a market liquid enough to trade at all.

Both things are true at once. The gold price is discovered in a market where most activity is financial rather than physical. Whether that is a flaw or a feature is a real argument, not a settled question. However, even in spite of this argument, there remains no one entity who sets the gold price.

The Price Discovery Map Is Shifting East

London has been the center of gold pricing for a century. That position is not disappearing, but it is no longer unchallenged. The center of gravity in the precious metals market has shifted a little toward the east.

The Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

The Shanghai Gold Exchange runs its own benchmark auction twice on every trading day, at 10:15 in the morning and 2:15 in the afternoon, Beijing time. The result is published in yuan per gram rather than dollars per ounce. It is based on physical bars of one kilogramat 99.99 percent purity, deliverable into vaults the exchange has approved.

That last detail matters more than it appears. The Shanghai benchmark is physically settled by design, so every contract behind it corresponds to actual metal in an actual vault. London's market is built on unallocated gold, where most trading involves claims rather than movement of bars.

When London and Shanghai disagree

Chinese gold usually trades at a premium to London. The premium is driven by import restrictions, domestic taxes, and persistent local demand. Traders watch that premium closely for two reasons:

It widens when Chinese buyers are accumulating aggressively
It narrows when they step back.

The two benchmarks can also move in opposite directions. There have been sessions in 2026 when the London price rose in dollars https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/03/china-gold-market-update-resilient-demand-festive-month";>while the Shanghai benchmark fell in yuan. These are not one price expressed in two currencies. They are two markets, connected by arbitrage but not identical.

The infrastructure is following

Infrastructure is following the trading. On July 7, 2026, Hong Kong began trial operations of a government owned gold clearing system, developed with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The operating company was approved as an international member of the exchange and opened a physical gold account. Its board includes major Chinese and Western banks.

This detail is easy to overlook, but clearing is precisely what makes a city a pricing center, rather than merely a trading venue. London's authority rests on vaults, clearing, and settlement as much as on the auction itself. Asia is now building the same foundation.

What this means if you buy in dollars

For a dollar buyer today, almost nothing changes. The price of an American Gold Eagle still derives from dollar spot, which is still driven principally by London and New York. The Shanghai premium is a demand signal worth watching, not a price you can actually pay.

What has changed is the assumption underneath everything else. A single global gold price was a reasonable simplification for decades. It is becoming a less reliable one.

Frequently Asked Questions

No single person or institution sets it. Gold trades continuously between banks and dealers worldwide, and that trading produces the spot price. Two benchmarks are formally set by auction, the LBMA Gold Price in London and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price in China. Both reflect the market rather than direct it.

Real interest rates and the strength of the dollar matter most. Central bank purchases, investment flows, jewelry and industrial demand, and mine supply all contribute as well. Because above ground gold stocks are enormous relative to annual production, gold behaves more like a monetary asset than an ordinary commodity.

Nobody fixes it in the old sense. The historic London Gold Fixing ended in March 2015 and was replaced by the LBMA Gold Price, an electronic auction operated by ICE Benchmark Administration under regulatory supervision. The auction publishes a reference price twice daily. It does not control the wider market.

No. Gold trades over the counter around the world for roughly 23 hours a day, so no exchange exists to declare a close. Firms that need a daily closing figure either use an LBMA auction price or a closing price their data vendor calculates using a published method.

The same markets that determine the price per ounce. A gram price is simply the ounce price divided by 31.1, the number of grams in a troy ounce. Retailers then add a premium, which is why a gram of finished jewelry or a small bar costs considerably more.

Through continuous trading between banks, dealers, refiners and funds, together with futures trading on exchanges such as COMEX. Buying and selling interest meets constantly, and the resulting price is quoted in dollars per troy ounce. Benchmark auctions in London and Shanghai then publish reference prices drawn from that trading.

Not any longer. The United States fixed the dollar price until 1971, when it stopped redeeming dollars for gold. Countries can influence the price by buying or selling reserves, and by restricting imports. None can declare a world price that markets are obliged to accept.

The underlying metal price is essentially the same everywhere. Local prices differ because of currency exchange rates, import duties, sales taxes, and domestic demand. India applies import duty and a goods and services tax, while China restricts imports and taxes them. Both effects appear as a local premium over the London price.

Central banks have been the standout buyers. The World Gold Council recorded roughly 863 tonnes of net official sector purchases during 2025, about 21 percent below 2024 but still the fourth largest annual total on record. Investors, jewelry buyers and industrial users account for the remainder of demand.

Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Precious Metals Sector Major New Uptrend Alert

Gold Flows Into ETFs Flipped Positive in July as Investors Buy the Dip

Trading Volumes

South Korea Announces Gold Reserve Expansion Through Domestic Buying Program

Markets Question Fed's Inflation Resolve After July FOMC Meeting

Fed Holds Rates Steady Despite Internal Division

A New Communication Strategy Leaves Markets Guessing

Tough Inflation Talk Without Tough Inflation Policy

Bond Markets Signal Growing Skepticism

Balance Sheet Expansion Sends Mixed Signals

Could the Fed Redefine Inflation?

Implications for Gold and Silver

Why Real Interest Rates Matter

Inflation Metrics and the Case for Sound Money

How Often Does the Gold Price Change? - Live Spot Ticks, Twice-Daily LBMA Benchmarks, and Weekend Price Freezes - Six Price Drivers, Premium Timing, and When Your Order Locks - Money Metals

How Often Does Gold Price Change?

When Is the Gold Market Open? Trading Hours Explained

Does the Gold Price Change on Weekends?

What About the LBMA Gold Price?

Why Does the Gold Price Change So Often?

The U.S. Dollar

Interest Rates and Fed Policy

Inflation Expectations

Central Bank Demand

Geopolitical Events

The Paper Market

Putting It All Together

How Often Do Actual Gold Coin and Bar Prices Change?

Two Prices, Two Clocks

What Moves the Premium

When Your Price Locks

Selling Works the Same Way

Should You Try to Time the Gold Price?

Do the Math on a Normal Day

Waiting Carries Its Own Cost

What Many Long-Term Buyers Do Instead

Frequently Asked Questions

How often does the gold price change in a day? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Does the gold price change on weekends? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

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What time of year is gold cheapest? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Does the gold price change on holidays? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Conclusion

A Vote of No Confidence! Are Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight?

Articles Mentioned During the Show

Gold Spot Price vs Futures - Cost of Carry and Contango Explained - Roll Costs, Breakeven Timing, and Bullion Premiums - Money Metals

Gold Spot Price vs. Futures Price: The Short Answer

Why Gold Futures Trade Above Spot: Cost of Carry

The Formula

A Real Spot-to-Futures Spread, Worked

Contango and Backwardation: Reading the Gold Curve

The Roll Cost: What Futures Charge You for Holding On

Margin, Leverage, and Contract Specs

Can You Take Delivery of Gold Futures?

Which Price Should You Watch When Buying Physical Gold?

Frequently Asked Questions

Are gold futures the same as spot prices? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Is it better to buy gold futures or actual gold? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

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Why do people trade futures instead of spot? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

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What happens to gold futures at expiration? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Conclusion

Central Bank Gold Buying Accelerated Again in June

The Gold Buyers

The Gold Sellers

The Big Picture

What Is the PCE and Why Is It the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge?

CPI

PCE

Why Does the Fed Love the PCE?

Who Sets the Gold Price? - LBMA Auction, COMEX Futures, and the 24-Hour Spot Market - Manipulation Cases, Premium Breakdown, and the Shift to Shanghai - Money Metals

The Short Answer: Three Different Numbers, Three Different Jobs

How the LBMA Gold Auction Actually Works: Round by Round

Who the 15 Direct Participants Are and How a Bank Becomes One

The 30-second Round Mechanic