Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Should New York Control Precious Metals Markets?

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Stefan Gleason.

Coming up in a moment, we will be joined by author and precious metals analyst Przemysław Radomski.

Radomski says gold and silver have reacted unusually to the Iran–U.S. conflict because markets are focusing on inflation and higher interest rates, not safe-haven demand.

He remains bullish on gold and silver over the long term, viewing recent weakness as a normal correction within a broader bull market. But his most interesting thoughts are where silver is heading from here.

So, stick around for another tremendously insightful conversation with Axel Merk, coming up after this week's market update.

And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

A broad coalition representing dozens of key stakeholders across all segments of the U.S. precious metals industry formally called on Congress this week to advance the System Integrity through Licensed Vault Expansion & Resilience Act (SILVER Act).

The SILVER Act is bipartisan legislation designed to address national security risks by strengthening the resilience, competitiveness, and geographic diversity of America's precious metals market infrastructure.

The current structure of exchange-approved precious metals depositories concentrates regulated futures market storage capacity within a small geographic area around New York City, creating vulnerabilities for financial markets, supply chains, and national security.

"Geographic redundancy is a foundational principle of resilient infrastructure and risk management across critical industries and financial systems," the coalition said in https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/SILVER-Act-Industry-Coalition-Letter-6-11-26.pdf";>a letter dated June 11, 2026 signed by more than 40 companies and trade organizations. The current single-region dependency is “creating dangerous concentration risks, limiting competition and regional participation, and imposing artificial constraints on the marketplace.”

The SILVER Act (SB 4621 and H.R. 8007) is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/21/sens-risch-and-cortez-masto-introduce-bipartisan-silver-act-to-derisk-us-precious-metals-market-infrastructure-004933";>sponsored by Sen. James Risch (R-ID), Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC), Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-ID), and Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) and is https://www.morningstar.com/news/accesswire/1158299msn/cftc-chairman-to-examine-national-security-risks-from-geographical-concentration-of-depositories-for-precious-metals?tblci=GiCB9a4pBBlehdsJSAXBSvtzY7kC2AKY69BgUiVdqNpQmSDKuWUo-sCAu_nVmNN8MK67Pg"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">supported by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig.

The bipartisan bill would not require approval of any specific depository. Instead, it would establish greater transparency and objective evaluation standards for depository approvals while ensuring that geographic concentration risk and broader public-interest considerations are addressed via the inclusion of several qualified depositories across the U.S.

The coalition argues that precious metals play an increasingly important role not only as financial assets but also as critical inputs for defense, aerospace, electronics, medical technology, and energy production. As a result, disruptions affecting a narrow region around New York City could have severe consequences extending well beyond the precious metals market itself.

“Passage of this simple bipartisan bill would modernize the nation’s precious metals infrastructure by promoting regional diversification, reducing costs, strengthening domestic supply chains, enabling new innovative digital products, and expanding market liquidity and access — while better aligning the system with the realities of a national marketplace,” the coalition pointed out to Congressional leaders.

Turning to the price action, it was a rough week for gold, silver, and platinum.

Gold is currently trading at $4,230 an ounce, down about 3% from last Friday's level. Silver has also pulled back, checking in at $68.70 an ounce, a decline of roughly 2% on the week.

Platinum is trading at $1,718 an ounce, off 6% from last Friday's $1,831 level, while palladium comes in at $1,295 an ounce, essentially unchanged from a week ago.

Well now, without further delay, let's get right to our exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by Mr. Radamoski. I cannot say his first name to save my life, so I'm not going to try. I'm going to let him just say it for me. How are you doing today?

Przemysław Radomski: Just perfect. Just perfect. Yes. Thank you, Mike, for introducing me. My name is Przemysław Radomski.

Mike Maharrey: Well, it's a pleasure to meet you.

Przemysław Radomski: Thank you. Thank you. And I'm happy and excited to be here.

Mike Maharrey: This is what happens when you get a Kentucky boy trying to speak Polish and it would be amusing – we could almost do a blooper reel with the first three times I tried to introduce you. All right. I'm really excited to have you with me today and just to let folks know who you are. You are a CFA and you are the creator of goldpriceforecast.com and silverpriceforecast.com, a fine analyst. And you've actually written a couple of articles for us over at Money Metals. So pleasure to actually have you on the show today. So what I kind of want to do is just start off real generally. We had a bull market in gold and silver over the last really two years and especially last year, kind of moved into the first few weeks of 2026. Then we had a correction and then we got this crazy Iran US conflict that seems to be dominating the markets right now.

So, I'm curious how you kind of see the precious metals markets right now in the current situation. Do you feel like this war is kind of a, I don't know even how to put it, almost like a lid on a pot that's kind of held this bull market in check and that the underlying dynamics are still there? Are we starting to see some changes structurally in the markets that we might have to deal with as we move forward?

Przemysław Radomski: Okay. A lot of unpack here. Let me start with the war and its impact on the precious metals sector. My main focus from the fundamental side of things is silver, but most of things that apply to silver apply to gold as well. So the key thing about this war and the market is that they are not connected in the regular way. I mean, usually you have safe haven demand for gold and for silver, whatever something's up like in case of geopolitical threats, conflicts and come on, what we have here is a full-blown war. We're way past the threats and it's this trade of Hormuz that's on the line, 20% of crude oil go through it. So this is something really major for the entire planet. However, despite that, whenever there's an escalation, precious metals tend to drop instead of rallying. So many people are wondering what's going on.

And my take on this is that in this war, gold and silver are on the so- called oil inflation rates side, not on the safe haven side. So because of the connection between the war and price of oil, we have all those implications. The key one is higher crude oil means higher inflation. Basically crude oil I think is the most versatile commodity. Well, silver is well pretty close because of all of its industrial uses, but let's face it, crude oil is still the key commodity. And when the price of crude oil goes up, the price of everything else goes up sooner or later. So we have the inflation pressure coming from high crude oil, which still trades close to $100. Well, today it's close to 90, but that's still not 50, right? It's close to a hundred and the conflict has not been resolved despite hopeful comments from both sides.

So, it's a tough call to say if the end is near end of conflict that is. So the inflation pressure could persist. This in turn keeps the Fed frozen or even leaning hawkish. That's what we have the Fed the chair that seems dovish, but he doesn't have the votes needed to cut rates and instead the market started to expect actually rate hikes later this year. So instead of the market and in this case, also the precious metals market, seeing escalation of war as something against which you need to safe-haven to protect yourself, the market sees it as something that keeps the inflation pressure up and therefore keeps the Fed either trapped or leaning more hawkish. So perhaps the market should be expecting higher rates and this is something that negatively affects the prices of precious metals. So instead of the regular positive link between escalation of conflict and the price of precious metals, we have negative link right now.

So that's that. And could you remind me what else you covered because you included so much in that one question?

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I packed the suitcase really full. No. So with that in mind, is this kind of something that if we get a quick resolution and as you said, who knows? I mean, it's so difficult to read, especially with the current administration in the United States, what might happen next. But let's just assume for the sake of argument that the war kind of winds down, we get a resolution relatively quickly. Do you think the dynamics are still in place to support a gold bull market or have there been some more fundamental shifts that maybe have been kind buried by the market noise with the war?

Przemysław Radomski: I don't think there have been many structural shifts as far as the gold market is concerned. There is one thing that changed with regard to silver, but that's a separate topic, I mean the solar demand. And I think it would be best to see the initial market reaction. My best guess right now is that we would see the price mill market move higher on peace resolution because the channel oil inflation and rates, the channel will remain in place only playing in the other direction. So, I do expect this to be a bullish event. Again, the opposite of one would expect under normal circumstances if oil wasn't involved in such a degree. However, that's as far as fundamental outlook or structural outlook is concerned. There might be technical or emotional, if you will, reasons for the market to cool off a bit before it gets ready for another wave up.

And that happens regardless of the fundamental picture because let's face it, the rallies that we saw in the last two years and in the last year in case of solar have been spectacular. So no market, regardless of how positive the fundamentals are, can move up or down without corrections. That's just how markets work. That's how humans work. That's how emotions work. They move to the excess, the excessive greed or in case of gold, it might actually be fear because people buy gold when they are fearful about some things. Either way, it could be the case that the prices have gotten ahead of themselves and they just need to cool down for a bit. But does it mean that the entire bull market is over, that gold will get back to $1,000 level, $2,000 level? I don't think so. I don't think we'll ever see gold at $1,000 or $2,000 level.

However, those are different factors to be considered. I mean, peace could on one hand work through the channel, so bullish for the precious smells in the near term. But on the other hand, if the technical reasons, so the emotional reasons remain intact and we are in this corrective cycle, then the market could use that also to cool down as well because the market could focus on the safe haven bid being erased or declined actually because there's still war in the Ukraine and other places in the world. But in the short term, I would monitor the initial reaction the first few days. That could tell a lot about where the markets are headed in the following weeks and months, given that the fundamentals, I mean, the geopolitical situation resolves in this direction. The initial reaction should tell us more.

Mike Maharrey: That's a really good point. I just had a thought. I'm going to go completely off the rabbit trail here, but I'm curious about how you would, if you will confirm what I just was kind of thinking. You mentioned that the technical factors and I'm not a great technical analyst. I tend to look more at macroeconomic kind of stuff and way down the road kind of things. Do you think that that technical analysis is something that's a valuable tool to capture kind of the emotional aspect of the markets? Because you kind of made that association and that has never really clicked with me before, but that makes sense that it's picking up on these emotional things that may not even necessarily make sense within the broader economic context. Is that kind of a good way to look at that?

Przemysław Radomski: Yes. There's a saying that the markets are emotional in the short term but logical in the long term. So in the short run, anything could happen, but in the long run, look at the structural situation in the market, look at the fundamentals, look at the major trends, major shifts, and the price will eventually follow regardless of the current economics economic, but emotional situation. And it's analogous to, I don't know, life in general, right? You could feel all sorts of emotions in a given day or week, but this too shall pass and ultimately what happens depends on the fundamental choices that you made about your life, about relationships and so on. So, the same is the case with the markets.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that's a really good point. So, let's focus in a little bit on the silver market. You mentioned the impact that we've seen on solar with higher prices. I'm curious about how that shifted. And then more broadly, we've seen a couple of silver squeezes where we had significant shortages of physical metal in certain areas. So, for instance, we had some shortages in London because all the silver had gone to New York, not all of it, but I'm using hyperbole, but in general. Are we in a situation where we could still have more of squeezes? Is it kind of a case of musical chairs where we don't have enough metal so we're shifting it back and forth or is it really just a logistical issue that we've kind of seen? How do you see the silver market right now in terms of the shortage that supposedly is out there?

Przemysław Radomski: Well, right now, since silver price declined, I think we have a very, very specific situation in general and I want to talk about the entire market first and I will get to the more local point of view shortly thereafter. Perfect. So lower prices, on one hand, they indicate that the demand has gone down. So, there's less pressure to purchase to have this quiz on the market and that we would see another parabolic rally based on the shortage. That's one way to view it and to see it. On the other hand, lower prices mean that physical buyers, those that don't care that much about speculation or short-term price moves, the industrial buyers, those that need the real metal to produce something, those people might view this as a fire sale opportunity to load it up on silver at low prices. And if someone does that, I mean like one big company, maybe just maybe it could trigger some other company to see that, hey, the amount of silver that's available was low and now it's very low, so I better stock up myself.

So then, the third company could see that and the fourth and so on. And they could start bidding against each other for the last silver bars available.

Przemysław Radomski: When we had the 2008 decline, the prices plunged, which followed the general decline in many markets. So, there was a liquidity problem, and all the assets had to be sold and they fell altogether. We didn't have such a shortage of physical mail that we have right now, so that risk wasn't there. The price just dropped like storm and water. But right now initially it could also decline, but there's always this what if this effect happens? It only has to happen once for the entire market structure to change in a meaningful way. This would be like this so- called black swan event that could cause silver to rally very quickly into triple digits once again and to new all-time highs. The thing is that this is a high impact but low probability event. We haven't seen that happen in silver yet. We did see it in Palladium almost 30 years ago.

So, it can happen. It has a precedent, but what is more likely to happen is that we'll get this short-term declines that will allow people to buy more and then the price will rally once again. But moving to the local perspective, I think it would be good to mention the Silver Act here because that's connected directly with local shortages.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that was my next question.

Przemysław Radomski: Yeah. So basically we had spikes and silver lease rates. There was a lot of trouble getting real physical metal when people wanted to take delivery and therefore the concept is to have silver storage more diversified across Northern America to have at least two facilities per time zone because so far there are 11 Comex approved warehouses and they're all about 150 miles from New York as far as I remember. So the Silver Act is so- called System Integrity through Licensed Vault Expansion Resilience Act. And the point of the act is to introduce that, to introduce this diversification of depository facilities to prevent this kind of bottleneck from disrupting the market because right now, okay, you have all that silver close to New York, but it's actually mostly mined on the other side of the US so it has to travel all the way to those facilities.

And then if there's shortage in London because the exchange traded products suck up the inventory and the available silver on the exchange drops significantly, then you have local problem with silver availability. So within the US, the concept is to diversify it. And I personally think that it's a good idea and I'm not the only one thinking that, well, more importantly, the CFTC chairman, Michael Sellick, also publicly endorsed the bill. So it has backing. It's quite likely to be introduced in my opinion. The timing is unclear though, but I do think that the market is headed in this direction, which will improve the odds for not seeing those local shortages and jumps in lease rates and people having trouble getting hands on their silver. And this is also something that's good for the silver market itself because it connects the paper price with the real metal, the physical delivery, much more so.

Therefore, the physical demand and paper price are likely to be more connected or at least the disruption of the market in the way that we've seen it is less likely locally. It also helps people to get their own silver in their hands, which puts pressure on the market in general therefore adding to the deficits to the possibility that the Black Swan event that I was talking about several minutes ago might actually happen because if people take delivery because it's actually possible to do so and convenient to do so, then some bigger industry players could step in and also want to take their silver bars to their own warehouses.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that makes sense. It's kind of crazy. You think about the systemic risk when you have virtually all of the deliverable silver in North America within 150 miles of on city. You think about even just a natural disaster that creates a power outage or transportation issues, you should never have anything centralized like that in my view. I'm a big decentralization guy. So let me get you out on a fun question. Do you have a silver coin or round that you particularly like for whatever reason?

Przemysław Radomski: Actually, well, the fun part is that in my personal opinion, the less numismatic value a coin has, the more I like it.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I'm with you on that. I totally get that. Yeah.

Przemysław Radomski: Yeah, because then basically more of my money is being spent on the metal itself and less on the numismatic value. And if I was an avid coin collector, then I would pay more attention to all this. But if I'm using coins as a proxy to invest in the metal, then it's pretty simple. I mean, I want the most metal for my money. The best coin is the, some would say the worst coin.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. No, I totally get that. I'm kind of the same way. I've never been a big numismatic coin collector. I mean, I can appreciate the beauty of some of the coins and I have a sentimental connection to the Krugerrand because of my grandfather, but yeah, I'm with you. Just give me some American Eagles or some gold bars and then we're good to go. All right.

Przemysław Radomski: Actually, no, let me add one more thing because I recalled something. There is one coin that I like. That's a coin provided by Marco Burn. I mean the Tara Coin, which has the one about heritage, it connects it with values. It has, I can't remember the exact name of the coin, but maybe, I don't know, maybe you can remember We can research it later. Yeah.

No, the name slips my mind.

Przemysław Radomski: The thing is that the coin represents certain approach, certain set of values. It's important from other point of view, not for ... Well, yes, the investment potential is there, but it stands for something much more important. So, if this is something that resonates with people, then that would also make sense, but not for just the reasons to own the most metal.

Mike Maharrey: Right, right. It's the tree life coin. It has the tree of life on it.

Przemysław Radomski: Oh, yes, exactly.

Mike Maharrey: Yep. And then the other side, it has some of the symbolism from Ireland's history. It's a beautiful coin. We sell them at Money Metal, so folks can pick those up if they're interested. All right. So before we go, I do want you to let folks know where they can find you. And if you want to real quick, you can let folks know what they'll find over at GoldPriceForecast and SilverPriceForecast.com.

Przemysław Radomski: I tried to name the domain, so they are quite self-explanatory.

Mike Maharrey: I like it!

Przemysław Radomski: So yeah, you will find gold price forecast and silver price forecast there, free articles. However, we also have the website, actually a community portal at goldenmeadow.eu and this is where our premium publications are located. So we have 10 premiums letters. That's where you can buy my silver book and we can go directly to silver2026.com and it takes directly to checkout. But on GoldenMeadow.eu, you see all that we offer and also you can see the performance of all the services combined, which we also deliver as something called Diamond Package. So that's our most prestigious product and that's that. You will see everything on that page. It got a major revamp over the weekend. So I think that will be the best place to investigate goldenmeadow.eu. Thank you.

Mike Maharrey: I've read through some of the free articles on there and there's some great information and analysis and folks who are interested in what's going on in the precious metal space. I highly encourage you guys to check that out. It's another great resource and we can never have too much information. Well, I really appreciate you taking time out of your day and making this interview happen. It's been a pleasure talking to you and we'll get you on again sometime at some point and hope you have a fantastic day.

Przemysław Radomski: Likewise. Thank you. Thank you, Mike. It's been a great pleasure to be here. Thank you again.

Why Gold Price Is Going Up - Debt, Inflation, and Safe-Haven Buying - The Biggest Factors Driving Higher Gold Prices - Money Metals

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

If you're wondering why gold price is going up, you're not alone. Gold prices have surged over the last year. In January 2026, gold hit a record price of $5,400. It represented a staggering growth of 64% in 2025, and many predict gold will surpass $6,000 per ounce in 2026.

After such a sharp rally, many investors are asking why gold price is going up. The trouble is, there is no one single answer.

Instead, the answer comes from several factors. Rising government debt, stubborn inflation, central bank buying, geopolitical instability, and mistrust of the global financial system all cause gold prices to rise.

We'll explore the factors that explain why gold bullion prices are going up. You will learn how to track these changes and determine the https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-gold";>best time to buy gold.

Why Gold Price Is Going Up in 2026: Loss of Trust in the Dollar

One major reason for rising gold prices is a lack of trust in the U.S. dollar. The dollar's value depends on public trust in governments and central banks instead of a physical asset. When public trust in the dollar declines, many people rush to more tangible assets. Out of all those assets, gold is far and away the most famous.

When that confidence weakens, investors often turn to gold as a store of value. That is especially true at times when governments around the world have drastically grown their debt. Simultaneously, central banks continue increasing the money supply to support economic growth, financial markets, and government spending.

In the United States alone, the https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/";>national debt has surpassed $35 trillion. In the face of that, the Federal Reserve has injected rounds of monetary stimulus into the financial system, flooding the country with newly created dollars.

That matters because prices usually rise when the money supply grows faster than the economy. When that happens, it means that each dollar buys less than it used to.

You can see that fading purchasing power in your daily life. Your grocery list hasn't grown. Your gas tank needs the same amount as always. And yet, the prices of both only continue to grow.

In contrast, gold's value has steadily increased over the long-term.

That's why so many investors use gold as a hedge against inflation. Gold cannot be printed by central banks or created digitally or on a whim. Gold's supply takes time to grow, as its only source of growth is mining. That helps to preserve its scarcity - and its stability.

Another factor supporting gold is the massive expansion of M2 money supply during and after major economic crises. The two major examples of this century are the 2008 and 2020 pandemic era financial crises. In both cases, central banks injected trillions of dollars into the economy. They did so by three main strategies:

Stimulus programs
Asset purchases
Near-zero interest rates

These policies helped stabilize markets in the short term. However, they also strengthened public concerns about long-term currency devaluation.

Investors are increasingly asking whether governments can realistically manage rising debt burdens without continued money creation and inflation. That uncertainty is pushing many investors toward hard assets like gold. Gold offers security since it exists outside the financial system.

Central Banks Are Buying Gold at the Fastest Pace in Decades

Countries like the BRICS nations and other emerging-market nations have been steadily building their gold reserves. This trend has accelerated throughout the 2020s, driven by the rise of COVID-19 and intensified geopolitical conflict.

All of these events brought with them growing concern about overreliance on the U.S. dollar.

Central banks have very different uses and roles for gold than those of private investors. Governments do not buy gold in the hope of speculative trading and quick profits. Instead, they buy gold because it is not tied to any other government's monetary policy. It's a neutral asset they can fall back on in times of severe economic strain or geopolitical tensions.

Unlike foreign currencies or government bonds, gold is not tied to another nation's politics or debts. It cannot be frozen, sanctioned, or digitally created by a central bank. Investors really value that independence during times of global instability.

All of this connects to de-dollarization trends. Several countries want to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar for trade and reserve holdings. Despite the dollar remaining the world's dominant reserve currency, rising geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and U.S. debt leave many seeking alternatives to the dollar.

Gold fills that demand very easily.

In particular, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-central-bank-maintains-gold-buying-17th-month-2026-04-07/";>China has led the charge with aggressive gold buying each year. This move is a part of China's work in internationalizing the yuan. Russia has also acquired large quantities of gold in recent years as a means of combatting Western sanctions for the Ukraine invasion.

Central bank demand also has a direct impact on supply and pricing. When sovereign institutions accumulate large gold holdings, it takes a toll on the international gold supply. Central banks tend to hold gold reserves for years and decades at a time, leaving a hole in the supply that cannot keep up with demand.

Central bank accumulation sends a powerful signal to many investors. When investors see governments rushing to buy gold, it suggests that gold is becoming increasingly vital for financial security and stability.

Falling Real Interest Rates Make Gold More Attractive

Real interest rates are another critical reason the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold spot price is rising. They are also one of the most widely misunderstood factors.

Many headlines simplify reality by saying things like, “Fed rate cuts push gold higher.” In reality, such policies have much more nuanced impacts. Gold responds more to real interest yields than to headline rates. These yields are also known as “real rates.”

Nominal interest rates are the stated yields investors earn on various assets, such as Treasury bonds or savings accounts. Real interest rates subtract inflation from those yields to show the true return after factoring in rising prices.

For example, let's say a Treasury bond pays 5% interest. However, inflation is running at 3%. In this scenario, the real yield is only 2%.

Now, let's say inflation rises to 6%, and the bond still pays only 5%. That reduces the real yield to negative 1%.

You can learn more about this through this table:

Simple Real Interest Rate Examples
Nominal Interest Rate	Inflation Rate	Real Interest Rate	Impact on Gold
5%	2%	3%	Bonds look more attractive
5%	5%	0%	Gold becomes more competitive
5%	7%	-2%	Gold demand often strengthens

That distinction matters to investors and helps set gold apart. Gold does not generate income like bonds or dividend-paying stocks. Investors often compare gold directly against “risk-free” government debt. So, when real yields are high, investors often run to bonds to generate meaningful returns.

Environments like these make it hard for gold to hold its own. However, that all changes when real interest rates fall - especially if they turn negative. Environments like this make it easy for gold to thrive.

In such times, investors would rather hold gold as a store of value. It makes more sense than investing money in assets that produce negative real returns.

Given this dynamic, there's a pattern investors can look for to gauge gold performance. Gold tends to do well when there is:

Loose monetary policy
High inflation expectations

Both of these factors tie back to the Federal Reserve and its policies. For example, when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or signals future easing, bond yields often decline.

At the same time, inflation may remain high, or even increase, because of continued monetary stimulus and deficit spending. That combination pushes real rates lower. Historically, that has often created a supportive environment for gold prices.

There's another important factor to note, though: markets often react to expectations.

That means future Federal Reserve actions, inflation trends, and economic conditions usually factor into prices months in advance. This is why gold can rally even before the Federal Reserve officially implements a new policy.

Many investors focus only on whether rates are rising or falling. But the more important question is whether interest rates are keeping pace with inflation. When they fail to manage that, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines. From there, demand for bullion often increases.

Economic Uncertainty and Recession Fears are Driving Safe-Haven Demand

In uncertain economic times, factors like these often contribute to gold demand:

Slowing economic growth
Fragile banks
Rising debt burdens
Financial market volatility

There are several reasons why gold becomes appealing in times like these. Physical gold does not depend on banking stability, consumer spending habits, or earnings growth.

That sets it apart from other assets like stocks, corporate bonds, or real estate investments. Its independence makes it especially attractive when investors lose confidence in the economy.

Currently, a leading factor in gold's appeal is the risk of recession. Since the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, borrowing costs across the economy have increased.

These price hikes put pressure on businesses and consumers. When companies face weaker demand, they often cut spending or cut back on hiring. Likewise, private citizens become more reliant on credit cards and loans to maintain spending levels amid elevated living costs.

At the same time, cracks are beginning to appear in several areas of the financial system.

Regional banking stress has already exposed vulnerabilities tied to rising interest rates and unrealized bond losses. When rates rise rapidly, banks holding large amounts of lower-yielding bonds can face significant balance sheet pressure. Investors saw this firsthand during the regional banking turmoil of 2023, when several institutions collapsed or required emergency intervention.

Commercial real estate is another growing concern. Office vacancy rates remain elevated in many major cities as remote and hybrid work continue reshaping demand for office space. Property owners with large amounts of debt face refinancing challenges as borrowing costs remain high and property values weaken.

Stock market volatility also reinforces investor anxiety. Economic slowdowns often reveal unnecessarily high valuations, weak earnings, or overleveraged sectors. When this happens, it often leads investors to diversify into protective assets like gold and precious metals.

History has borne out this pattern many times. The table below shows some of the biggest examples in recent years:

Gold Price Behavior During Recent Crisis Periods
Investment Type	Counterparty Risk	Volatility	Ownership
Physical Gold	Low	Moderate	Direct Ownership
Gold ETFs	Medium	Moderate	Indirect Ownership
Mining Stocks	High	High	Equity Exposure

Geopolitical Tensions Often Push Gold Prices Higher

Gold has historically performed well during periods of geopolitical instability because investors tend to seek assets that are viewed as politically neutral and financially reliable. Wars, sanctions, and trade disputes can increase uncertainty in financial markets. That combination drives demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

One major factor supporting gold prices in the 2020s has been the prevalence of economic sanctions. After Russia invaded Ukraine, many Western nations froze the country's foreign assets. This move greatly weakened Russia's economy.

However, it also had the side effect of forcing other nations to re-evaluate the risks of holding too many reserve assets in euros or dollars. Governments realized foreign reserves could become vulnerable during geopolitical conflicts.

Gold does not carry that risk.

Physical bullion held within a country's borders cannot be electronically frozen or devalued by another country's monetary policy. For that reason, many central banks have accelerated gold purchases as a form of strategic financial protection.

At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation is increasing interest in alternatives to the dollar-dominated financial system. BRICS nations have openly discussed reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar in international trade. While replacing the dollar remains unlikely in the near term, these efforts reflect a broader desire among some nations to diversify reserve assets and payment systems.

Gold fits naturally into that strategy because it is globally recognized, highly liquid, and free from direct political control.

Energy markets also play a role. Wars and geopolitical disruption often trigger oil and natural gas price spikes. These feed broader inflation concerns.

Rising energy costs increase pressure on consumers, businesses, and governments alike, adding another layer of uncertainty that can support gold demand. In a more divided and unpredictable world, many investors and governments are turning to gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as protection against geopolitical and financial instability itself.

Physical Gold Supply Is Growing Slowly While Demand Keeps Rising

Though it is often overlooked, supply-side fundamentals also play an important role in the rising gold price. The global gold supply grows at a slow rate due to the global mining output, while long-term demand continues to rise.

Producing new gold can take nearly a decade. New supply depends on discovering, permitting, financing, and developing mines.

Mining companies are facing several major challenges at once.

First, extraction costs continue to rise. Some of those costs include:

Labor
Energy
Equipment
Regulatory expenses

Each of these costs have risen significantly in recent years. Higher fuel and electricity prices are especially important because mining operations consume enormous amounts of energy.

Second, many of the world's richest gold deposits have already been mined. Ore grades are declining across the industry. As a result, companies must process more rock to produce the same amount of gold. Lower grade deposits increase costs and reduce efficiency.

Permitting has also become more difficult in many jurisdictions. Environmental reviews, land-use disputes, political opposition, and regulatory uncertainty can delay projects for years. Even when gold prices spike, miners simply cannot increase their supply to meet the demand.

The end result is a structural constraint on global production growth.

At the same time, demand remains strong across multiple sectors:

Central banks are buying gold at record levels
Retail investors seek gold coins and bars during periods of economic uncertainty
ETF inflows increase institutional demand for bullion

Another critical source of demand is jewelry. Gold jewelry remains in high demand across the world, but especially in countries like India or China, where gold ownership is deeply tied to savings and cultural traditions.

The gap between supply and demand is becoming more central in setting the gold price. The imbalance between supply and demand can put additional upward pressure on prices.

Many investors think of gold purely as a financial asset. However, it is also a scarce physical commodity with real-world production limitations. That scarcity is one reason gold has retained value for thousands of years and why supply constraints may continue supporting prices in the years ahead.

Why Gold Sometimes Rises Even When the Dollar Is Strong

The common myth about the dollar and gold is that they always move in opposite directions. That relationship often does exist. However, it is not a fixed rule. In fact, there are periods when both the dollar and gold rise at the same time.

This usually happens during periods of high global uncertainty.

Under typical market conditions, a stronger dollar can pressure gold prices because gold is priced internationally in U.S. dollars. When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for foreign buyers, which can reduce demand.

However, in times of financial stress or geopolitical, investors often rush toward both dollars and gold at the same time. They do so for different reasons.

The dollar is still the world's dominant reserve currency and remains crucial to global trade. In a crisis, investors often rush to the dollar for its liquidity, debt repayment, and short-term financial stability.

Gold, on the other hand, serves a different role. Investors buy gold as protection against systemic risk, inflation, currency debasement, and long-term instability in the financial system itself.

To summarize, the dollar can benefit from immediate demand for liquidity. In contrast, gold benefits from fear about systemic failure and dollar devaluation.

Global liquidity conditions also matter. When central banks inject large amounts of stimulus into financial markets, it can strengthen both the dollar and gold. The outcome depends on investor expectations surrounding inflation, growth, and risk.

Understanding this relationship is important because many simplified market narratives fail to explain why gold sometimes rises even as the dollar remains strong. Gold is more than just an anti-dollar investment. Increasingly, the investor market sees it as an alternative monetary asset. It is a type of financial insurance during periods of global instability.

Is Gold Going Up Because Investors Expect Federal Reserve Rate Cuts?

Federal Reserve policy has a major effect on gold prices. Many investors misunderstand how the relationship works. Gold does not simply rise the moment the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Gold often begins climbing months before the first rate cut actually happens.

That is because markets are forward-looking.

Prices move based on investor expectations. Investors constantly anticipate coming trends in interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions are headed next. If markets believe the Federal Reserve will eventually cut rates to support a slowing economy, gold prices often react long before policymakers officially announce any change.

That dynamic explains how gold can rise even when interest rates stay high.

When investors expect future rate cuts, several things happen. Treasury yields often fall in advance because the bond market prices in the new policies. At the same time, three factors can increase demand for gold:

Expectations of liquidity
Stimulus
Higher future inflation

History shows this pattern repeatedly.

During the 2007-2008 financial crisis, gold prices initially experienced volatility as investors rushed for liquidity. The Federal Reserve drastically cut rates and launched stimulus programs in response. The result was that gold entered a multi-year bull market that pushed prices to record highs in 2011.

The Fed acted similarly in the COVID era. In 2020, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero. At the same time, they injected trillions of dollars into financial markets through emergency programs. Predictably, gold surged to record highs.

However, there's another important consideration for investors. Markets often price based on anticipated policy changes, not necessarily the policy changes themselves.

Markets usually price in policy changes early. In some cases, gold can even pause or pull back temporarily after cuts begin. This happens if investors believe the worst economic fears have already been addressed.

For these reasons, professional investors monitor these factors to predict gold trends:

Federal Reserve statements
Inflation reports
Employment data
Bond market trends

The key takeaway is that investors buy gold when they believe future monetary conditions may weaken paper currency. Alternatively, they buy gold when the real returns on traditional financial assets are expected to drop. Expectations for Federal Reserve easing often reinforce both of those concerns, helping support long-term demand for gold.

Could Gold Prices Continue Rising?

Many analysts believe gold could continue rising, provided that the economic and monetary conditions supporting the current rally remain in place. https://investinglive.com/commodities/jp-morgan-maintains-6000-gold-target-as-2h26-demand-seen-picking-up-pace-20260518/";>According to Investing Live, JP Morgan predicted that by the end of 2026, the spot price of gold could fall between $6,000 and $6,300 per troy ounce.

However, predictions can be wrong. Gold prices are never guaranteed to move in any particular direction. Investors should understand risks that could apply downward pressure to gold prices.

If inflation cools significantly and interest rates remain fairly high, real yields could rise. That will make bonds more attractive to many investors.

A stronger U.S. dollar could also create headwinds for bullion prices. That will be particularly true if global investors favor dollar-denominated assets.

Gold can still experience short-term volatility even if its price rallies in the long run. Rapid market selloffs sometimes force investors to liquidate gold positions temporarily to raise cash.

Rather than focusing only on daily price moves, investors often monitor several key indicators that influence gold's long-term price direction:

Real interest rates
Inflation trends
Federal Reserve policy expectations
Central bank gold purchases
ETF inflows and institutional demand
Dollar strength
Geopolitical instability

Gold tends to perform best when confidence in traditional systems breaks down. The specific direction of the gold price will depend on inflation, interest rates, debt levels, and global uncertainty. The ways in which these factors evolve will directly affect the spot price of gold.

What Smart Investors Should Understand Before Buying Gold

Historically, gold has served as a wealth preservation tool. It has not primarily been used for short term speculation.

Although prices can spike suddenly in times of economic stress, most long-term investors still prefer to use gold as protection against:

Inflation
Currency debasement
Financial instability
Broader market uncertainty

That distinction is very important to understand.

Gold does not function like a fast-growing stock or high-risk speculative asset. Its use is primarily defensive, aimed at preserving the purchasing power of your assets. This way, even if paper currency plummets, you still have resources you can turn to.

Investors have several ways of gaining exposure to gold, outlined in the table below:

Comparing Different Ways to Invest in Gold
Year / Period	Economic Stress	Investor Concern	Gold Price Trend	What It Shows
2008	Global financial crisis	Bank failures, credit market freeze, stock market collapse	Gold was volatile at first as investors sold assets for liquidity, then strengthened as confidence in the financial system weakened	Gold can dip during forced selling, but often recovers when systemic fear rises
2009-2011	Aftermath of the financial crisis	Federal Reserve stimulus, zero-rate policy, debt concerns	Gold continued climbing and reached record highs in 2011	Gold often benefits from loose monetary policy after a crisis
2020	COVID-19 market panic	Lockdowns, recession fears, emergency stimulus, currency debasement concerns	Gold sold off briefly in March, then surged to a new record high above $2,000 per ounce in August 2020	Massive stimulus and safe-haven demand can drive gold sharply higher
2022	Inflation shock and aggressive Fed tightening	High inflation, rising rates, recession risk	Gold faced pressure from higher nominal rates but remained supported by inflation and geopolitical risk	Gold’s performance depends heavily on real rates, not just inflation alone
2023	Regional banking stress	Bank failures, deposit concerns, commercial real estate pressure	Gold rallied as investors questioned banking system stability	Banking stress can quickly revive gold’s safe-haven role
2024-2025	Debt, inflation, geopolitical instability	Central bank buying, fiscal deficits, dollar confidence concerns	Gold reached repeated record highs, eventually moving above $3,000 per ounce	Gold can rise when multiple structural concerns converge at once

Physical gold appeals to many investors because it carries no direct counterparty risk. Coins and bars are tangible assets that exist outside the banking system.

Gold ETFs offer convenience and liquidity. Those advantages make them popular among institutional and short-term investors. However, ETF investors own shares tied to gold exposure, rather than taking direct ownership of the metal.

Mining stocks can sometimes outperform gold during strong bull markets, but they also introduce additional risks tied to management decisions, production costs, political issues, and stock market volatility.

Many financial professionals see gold as a diversification tool, instead of an all-or-nothing investment. Gold behaves differently than stocks and bonds during times of market stress, which can help reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Smart investors typically approach gold with realistic expectations. Gold may not generate income or explosive short-term returns. However, its historical role as a store of value continues to attract investors in a financially uncertain world.

FAQ: Why Gold Price Is Going Up

Several economic factors favorable to gold have converged, which has caused the price to rise. Some of these include persistent inflation concerns, rising government debt, geopolitical instability, central bank gold buying, and future rate cut expectations. Each of these factors makes gold more valuable in the eyes of many investors who want a safe-haven asset to protect their wealth.

Not always. While it is true that inflation often pushes gold prices higher, it does not guarantee a price rise. What matters more is whether interest rates keep pace with inflation. When inflation rises faster than bond yields and savings rates, it causes real interest rates to fall. That often supports gold demand.

However, there is an exception. If central banks aggressively raise rates and real yields move higher, that can still put pressure on gold, even in times of high inflation.

Gold often benefits when investors expect Federal Reserve rate cuts because lower rates can reduce bond yields and weaken real returns on cash savings. Rate cuts can also increase expectations for future inflation or additional monetary stimulus. These two conditions usually support gold prices.

However, markets often anticipate Federal Reserve policy months in advance. As a result, gold frequently begins rising well before the first official rate cut occurs.

Central banks are buying gold to diversify reserves and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies. Central banks see gold as a politically neutral reserve asset without a direct counterparty risk. Countries like China, India, and Turkey have increased gold purchases as a response to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and distrust of the global financial system.

Gold can experience sharp price downturns and volatility like any other financial asset. Historically, investors have been likely to sell gold temporarily to raise or cover losses in market panics. Nevertheless, gold has historically retained its value over long periods. Its scarcity, global acceptance, and capacity as a store of wealth help it stay valuable in the world market.

As a result, investors generally view pullbacks and normal parts of broader long-term market cycles, not signs that gold permanently lost value.

Final Thoughts on Why the Gold Price is Going Up

The key takeaway from all of this is that there is not just one reason why gold price is going up. Several factors play into the price of gold and the trends it follows.

Knowing those factors can help you know what to look for as you examine the bullion market. With this knowledge, you can better assess whether the price of gold is likely to rise or fall.

That can tell you when it might be the optimal time to buy gold. Even better, it can tell you what kind of profit you'd make by selling gold.

So, keep an eye on the market. Look for reports of central banks increasing their gold holdings. Learn how the gold mining industry is performing. Keep an eye on the spot price and look for rises or dips.

Practices like these can demystify the precious metals market.

10 Interesting Facts About Gold You May Not Know

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

People love gold.

They have for eons.

And what’s not to love?

Gold is strikingly beautiful. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/18/gold-demand-in-tech-and-industry-up-modestly-in-q1-004908";>It’s useful. And it has faithfully served humanity as money for thousands of years.

Of course, most people are aware of these characteristics. But there are a lot of things about this beautiful metal that you might not be aware of.

So, for a little fun on Friday, here are 10 lesser-known bits of trivia about gold.

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1. We all know that gold is scarce. But it really isn’t. While the amount of gold mined throughout human history https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/31/just-how-much-gold-is-there-004800";>would fit inside four-and-a-half Olympic-sized swimming pools, and geologists estimate there are only 54,770 tonnes of mineable gold reserves, there’s a lot more gold than that on Earth (or I should say in the Earth). The problem is that most of it is locked in the molten core. In fact, scientists estimate that about 99 percent of the world’s gold is buried about 1,800 miles below the Earth’s surface. If all that gold were brought to the surface, it would cover the entire Earth at a depth of about 1.5 feet!

2. If the amount of gold in the Earth’s core doesn’t satisfy you, there’s plenty more in the world’s oceans. How much gold? Scientists estimate there are some 20 million tonnes of dissolved gold in the oceans. Unfortunately, there is no economical way to mine it.

3. The yellow metal is so malleable that it can be pressed into nearly transparent sheets through which light can pass. In fact, an ounce of gold can be hammered into an extremely thin 100-square-foot sheet.

4. You can eat gold. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/14/eat-some-gold-004913";>And some people do. Gold is biologically inert and will safely pass through your digestive system with no negative effects.

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5. Pure gold is soft. In fact, you can bite a 24-karat gold coin, and it will leave toothmarks. This is why gold jewelry is generally mixed with other metals.

6. Gold had religious significance in many ancient cultures. The ancient Egyptians called it “The breath of God,” and they associated it with the flesh of Ra, the sun god. The fact that gold doesn’t tarnish reinforced the metal's status as divine.

7. The largest gold nugget ever found weighed more than 171 pounds. Nicknamed the “Welcome Stranger,” the 2,500-ounce nugget was discovered in Australia in 1869. It was so big that they had to break it apart to weigh it.

8. While most people associate American gold rushes with California or Alaska, the first U.S. gold rush was in North Carolina. In 1799, a young farmer named Conrad Reed found a 17-pound gold nugget on his family's property in Cabarrus County. That led to the establishment of the first U.S. gold mine, known as https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/04/10/3-fun-facts-on-gold-sound-money-in-nc-history-003113";>Reed Gold Mine.

9. Olympic https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/13/just-how-much-are-those-olympic-medals-worth-004690";>gold medals are mostly silver! The 2026 Olympic gold medal was formed of 500 grams of sterling silver, an alloy containing 92.5 percent by weight of silver and 7.5 percent by weight of other metals. They were then coated with 6 grams of 24-karat gold.

10. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/10/astronauts-looking-through-gold-colored-visors-004828";>Gold helps protect astronauts’ eyes when they are in space. You’ll notice that the visor on a space helmet looks gold. That’s because gold is incorporated into the design. Gold filters out infrared and ultraviolet light. As NASA explained it, “The movable sun visor and sun-shades protect the astronaut from the sun’s strong rays, while still allowing a clear visual field.”

So, there ya go! Gold isn’t just money. It’s not just a pretty rock. It is super cool!

Even During a Currency Crisis, Gold and Silver Don't Rise in a Straight Line

Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

If gold is an inflation hedge, why has the yellow metal been struggling as inflation expectations rise due to the Iran conflict?

I’m asked this question a lot, and it’s a reasonable query.

The simple answer is that there are multiple factors driving the gold market at any given time. So, while gold does ultimately shield you from currency depreciation, it’s not a one-to-one correlation. You often need to step back and look at a longer timeline to see your inflation fire insurance in action.

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As https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-happens-to-gold-prices-during-inflation";>Money Metals Exchange CEO Stefan Gleason pointed out, “It is certainly true that gold has historically performed well during inflationary eras. However, there have also been periods when inflation rose sharply, and gold prices moved sideways. Sometimes, gold prices have even declined.”

While inflation drives gold prices higher (more money circulating in the economy drives up all prices – including gold), other factors play a role. Interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, real yields, and U.S. dollar strength can all significantly affect gold prices.

As a result, gold and silver tend to move up in fits and starts, even when inflation is elevated. We’ve seen this kind of volatility during the Iran conflict. Gold and silver have been charting big headline-driven swings, both up and down, seemingly daily.

This phenomenon even plays out in the midst of a full-blown currency crisis. In fact, the price of gold can become extremely volatile as an inflationary event unfolds.

We can also see this phenomenon clearly if we chart the price of gold in Reichsmarks during the hyperinflationary era of the German Weimar Republic.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/german-hyperinflation-and-gold.jpg"; width="500" height="519" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

As you can see, the price moved up in fits and starts. This becomes even more apparent when you chart the percentage change in the price.

Economist Mark Thornton insisted this kind of volatility is normal.

“Even after it became known that the government was going to be entirely dependent on printing money for its budget and its financing of government debt, the price of gold, as measured in German Reichsmarks, was highly volatile. So, if you look at the relative change on a short-term basis, you see very wide swings. And I think most seasoned and informed investors in the precious metals market realize that it’s not a straight line up. There is a lot of volatility, and these are structured long-term savings actions on the part of stackers.”

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The key is looking past the short-term volatility and understanding the broader trend. Daily price swings can muddy the water. This is why it’s imperative to understand the mechanism behind inflation and currency devaluation.

Simply put, inflation drives up the gold price over time. However, that upward trajectory can be confused or even obscured by daily, weekly, and even monthly corrections and price movements.

You will also note that the hyperinflation in Germany started slowly and then seemed to happen all at once. This is the anatomy of a currency crisis. An analyst for the Scottsdale Mint argues that currencies have a tipping point. They work well until people stop believing in them. And they tend to stop believing all at once.

“Currency crises rarely unfold linearly. Markets initially price policy mistakes. Eventually, they begin pricing the reaction function of policymakers themselves. When investors begin anticipating how central banks will respond to instability rather than focusing on the instability itself, volatility increases dramatically. Gold often becomes the transmission mechanism for that shift.”

So, you might want to think twice before you unload your gold just because prices seem to be trading sideways, or even tanking. If inflation is in the picture (https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/05/inflation-is-the-plan-004459";>and it always is), you need to have gold and silver – money the government can’t print and devalue.

Will the Price of Gold Go Up? - Interest Rates, Dollar Strength, and Investor Demand - Factors That Could Move Gold Prices - Money Metals

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

Will the price of gold go up?

That question is on the minds of investors, savers, and central banks around the world. Gold has reached record highs in recent years, with the spot price reaching $5,400 in January 2026. The price dropped back down afterward, but it still leaves many wondering what might happen next.

Have investors missed their chance? Or, is there another major move coming soon?

The truth is that no one can predict the future price of gold with certainty. Anyone who claims otherwise is selling confidence, not facts. What investors can do, however, is study the forces that drive gold prices. If investors can spot the patterns that made gold rise in the past, they can determine whether those conditions are developing today.

Gold tends to perform best when confidence in paper assets weakens. Rising inflation, falling real interest rates, growing government debt, banking stress, and geopolitical tensions have all played a role in previous gold bull markets.

Today, several of those factors remain in place. Governments continue to borrow heavily. Central banks in the BRICS countries, especially China, are buying gold in record numbers. Investors continue to face uncertainty about inflation, interest rates, and the long-term health of the economy.

The key question is not whether gold can go higher. It is whether the economic conditions that support higher gold prices are likely to continue.

Quick Answer

Will the Price of Gold Go Up?

Gold could move higher in the years ahead. The answer, though, depends on several important factors.

Gold would likely benefit from the following scenarios:

Inflation remaining above historical averages
The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates
Investors losing confidence in government debt and financial markets

These conditions have often supported higher gold prices in the past.

There are also signs that demand for gold remains strong. Central banks have been buying large amounts of gold in recent years as they seek to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar. At the same time, many investors continue to view gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency weakness.

That said, gold is not guaranteed to rise. Several factors could push prices lower, such as:

The U.S. dollar gaining strength
Real interest rates rising
Stable economic growth

Based on today's economic environment, the long-term outlook for gold appears constructive. Government debt continues to climb, deficits remain large, and many central banks are adding to their gold reserves. These trends create a backdrop that has historically been favorable for precious metals.

Investors should focus less on short-term price predictions and more on the economic forces that drive gold over time. Those forces may offer the best clues about where prices are headed next.

Current Gold Market Snapshot

Gold entered the 2026 market from a position of strength.

Gold has spent much of the last decade moving between long periods of consolidation and short bursts of momentum. Starting in 2025 and into 2026, gold broke into new records. Now, the heart of the precious metal industry has gained the attention of institutional investors and everyday savers.

There are several factors driving that interest.

First, government debt levels continue to climb across the world. The United States has surpassed $39 trillion in debt. That has left many investors worrying that rising debt will eventually lead to currency devaluation and debasement. Inflation concerns have remained high throughout the 2020s. So have fears about financial instability.

Traditionally, gold has held a reputation for hedging against those threats.

Second, central banks remain major buyers of gold. Countries across Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe have added significant amounts of gold to their reserves in recent years. This trend suggests that many governments are seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and diversify their holdings.

Interest rates also remain a key factor. While central banks raised rates aggressively to combat inflation, investors continue to watch for signs of future rate cuts. Gold often performs well when real interest rates fall because the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset becomes lower.

Another layer of support for gold is that geopolitical tensions remain high. Increased military action, trade disputes, and global economic concerns leave many people looking for economic certainty. People turn to gold in the belief that it can be a safe haven against economic turmoil.

This is not to say that gold does not have any challenges. Although inflation fears remain high, it is also true that inflation has cooled from recent highs. Economic growth has also remained more resilient than many analysts expected amidst changing tariff policies and military action.

A stronger dollar could slow gold's rise.

What does that mean for the market? Currently, it seems to be balancing these competing forces. The result is a gold market that remains supported by strong, long-term fundamentals. However, in the short-term, there are continuing price swings in the gold market.

Why Gold Prices Move: 5 Factors Every Investor Should Watch

Gold prices seem hard to understand on the surface.

One day gold rises. The next day it falls. To make matters worse, there are competing news headlines rushing to explain either circumstance. The headlines often point to one single event as the root cause.

In reality, gold usually moves because of several factors working in tandem. If you want to track gold's price movement over the long-term, these five factors will help the most.

Interest Rates

Interest rates have a tremendous impact on gold prices.

When banks and bonds offer higher returns, some investors choose those assets instead of gold. That is because gold does not pay interest or dividends. It is not a profit-yielding asset.

When interest rates fall, though, they make gold more attractive to investors. Those falling interest rates cause profit-yielding assets to generate smaller returns. Investors then turn to gold for an asset that retains its value in spite of economic changes.

This dynamic is why gold often performs well when the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates.

Inflation

https://www.moneymetals.com/price/what-happens-to-gold-prices-during-inflation";>Inflation is another critical factor in gold price movement. The reason is simple: inflation reduces the buying power of money.

This helps gold in two ways. First, weakened currency necessarily causes the prices of goods to rise. Gold is no exception: when the dollar loses purchasing power, gold prices naturally rise.

However, inflation also boosts the demand for gold. When the everyday cost of living, from food to housing, becomes more expensive, people want to protect their savings. Gold has historically served that purpose.

Many investors buy gold because they believe it can help preserve wealth during periods of high inflation. The fear of future inflation can also push gold prices higher. Markets often move according to investor expectations, not just current events. If investors fear a burst of inflation, the market will reflect that belief even if the data has not yet borne it out.
The U.S. Dollar

Gold and the U.S. dollar often move in opposite directions.

A strong dollar can put pressure on gold prices. That pressure derives from more expensive gold prices for buyers in other countries.

In contrast, a weaker dollar can help gold. Foreign buyers can purchase more gold with their local currencies, which can increase demand.

The relationship is not perfect. However, it is generally accepted that if there are major moves in the dollar, it will have an effect on the gold market.
Central Bank Buying

Central banks are some of the largest buyers of gold in the world.

Many countries hold gold as part of their national reserves. In recent years, central banks have increased their purchases.

They buy gold for many reasons. Some want to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar. Others want an asset that can hold value during periods of economic stress. Strong central bank demand can provide support for gold prices over time.
Economic and Political Uncertainty

Gold is often called a safe-haven asset. The reason is because people turn to it in times of crisis to keep their assets safe.

When investors worry about recessions, banking crises, war, or political instability, they often turn to gold.

Unlike stocks, gold does not depend on a company's profits. Unlike bonds, it does not depend on a government's promise to repay debt.

For many investors, gold represents stability during uncertain times.

No single factor controls the price of gold. The strongest rallies usually happen when several of these forces work together. That is why smart investors watch all five instead of focusing on just one headline or market event.

Real Interest Rates: The Gold Indicator Many Investors Miss

Many investors focus on inflation when they try to predict where gold prices will go next. Inflation is a huge factor in gold prices – but it's not the whole story.

To balance the scales, investors should also keep an eye on real interest rates.

A real interest rate is the return you earn after inflation. For example, let's say your savings account pays 4% interest. If inflation is running at 3%, your real return is only 1%.

Now imagine that same account pays 4%. Then, inflation rises to 5%. In this scenario, even though you would be earning interest, your purchasing power would fall. The result is that your real return would be negative 1%.

The distinction matters. Investors care about what their money can actually buy, not just the number printed on a statement.

As you might guess, gold tends to do best at times when real interest rates are low or negative. In these circumstances, people either do not generate much of a profit or end up losing money. Those losses have a way of making gold look very attractive. Whereas other assets slowly lose their purchasing power, gold tends to retain its value.

History provides several examples of this pattern.

The 1970s provide a textbook example of gold surging at a time of low real interest rates. The inflation crisis surged out of control during this decade. Interest rates struggled to keep up, causing real returns to fall.

In the meantime, gold entered one of the strongest bull markets in its history. In 1970, still tethered to the Bretton Woods system, gold remained at a $35 per troy ounce value. By early 1980, gold hit a peak of nearly $850. That surge represented an incredible gain of over 1400%.

The opposite happened during the 1980s and 1990s. These decades featured higher real interest rates, reducing gold's relative appeal. Gold prices spent much of that period moving sideways or lower.

This relationship still matters today.

Many people pay close attention to Federal Reserve policy because decisions can affect real returns throughout the economy. A rate cut does not automatically send gold higher. Instead, people monitor how that affects the balance between inflation and real rates. Gold's value will rise or fall depending on whether inflation falls faster or slower than interest rates.

If inflation remains stubborn while rates move lower, real returns can shrink. Historically, such environments prove favorable for gold.

Of course, real interest rates are only one piece of the puzzle. Gold prices are also influenced by central bank buying, economic growth, the strength of the dollar, and investor sentiment.

Still, every gold investor should ensure they understand real interest rates. While it is not the only factor that matters, it is a strong indicator of upcoming gold trends. Real rates help explain why gold can rise even when interest rates are high and why the metal can struggle even when inflation remains elevated.

That makes real interest rates one of the most important clues to gold's future direction.

Will the Price of Gold Go Up? Forecast Scenarios for 2026 and Beyond

The simple fact is that nobody knows the answer to the question “will the price of gold go up?” However, that does not mean you cannot make an informed prediction. Smart investors consider several possible outcomes and think about how gold might perform in each one.

The future of gold will depend largely on inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and investor confidence. The table below shows four possible scenarios and how each could affect gold prices.

Scenario	What Happens	Potential Impact on Gold
Soft Landing	Inflation falls and the economy keeps growing.	Moderately bullish
Recession	Economic growth slows and the Federal Reserve cuts rates.	Bullish
Stagflation	Inflation stays high while economic growth weakens.	Very bullish
Strong Growth	The economy remains strong and rates stay high.	Neutral to bearish

In a soft landing, inflation continues to cool without causing a recession. This outcome could support gold if interest rates move lower. However, strong stock market performance may limit demand for safe-haven assets.

A recession could create a more favorable environment for gold. Economic weakness often leads central banks to cut interest rates. Lower rates can reduce the appeal of cash and bonds, making gold more attractive.

Many gold owners pay close attention to the possibility of stagflation. Stagflation refers to when inflation remains high while economic growth slows down. Stagflation was one of the main drivers behind gold's strong performance during the 1970s. If a similar environment develops, gold could benefit from both inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.

The least favorable scenario for gold could be a period of strong growth combined with high real interest rates. If investors can earn attractive returns from stocks, bonds, and cash, demand for gold may weaken.

There is a key takeaway. Gold does not need every economic condition to be perfect. It only needs enough pressure on paper assets, currencies, or investor confidence to increase demand. Those who understand these possible outcomes are often better prepared than those who focus on a single prediction.

How Gold Has Performed During Previous Federal Reserve Rate-Cut Cycles

Potential gold buyers often ask the same question when the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates:

Will the price of gold go up?

Historical patterns have generally shown that the answer is yes. However, it's important to recognize that there are no guarantees.

Gold does not rise simply because the Fed lowers rates. What matters is why rates are being cut and how the market responds to the changing economic environment.

In many cases, rate cuts happen when:

Economic growth is slowing
Unemployment is rising
Financial markets are under stress

During these periods, people often seek assets that can help preserve wealth. Gold has frequently benefitted from that shift in sentiment.

The early 2000s provides an example of this trend.

After the dot-com bubble burst, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to support the economy. Gold entered a long bull market that lasted for much of the decade. While several factors contributed to the rally, lower interest rates helped create a favorable backdrop for precious metals.

A similar pattern emerged during the financial crisis of 2008.

As the banking system came under pressure, the Federal Reserve cut rates and introduced emergency measures to stabilize the economy. Gold experienced short-term volatility during the crisis but moved sharply higher in the years that followed. By 2011, gold had reached what was then a record high.

The rate-cut cycle that began in 2019 offers another example.

2019 saw growing concerns about slowing economic growth. In response, the Federal Reserve reduced rates to prevent the economy from entering a recession. Gold prices moved higher during that period and continued climbing as economic uncertainty increased.

What this demonstrates is that rate cuts do not automatically cause gold to rise.

Instead, rate cuts often signal that economic conditions are changing. They can reduce returns on cash and bonds while increasing concerns about growth, debt, or future inflation. Those conditions have historically supported demand for gold.

Another key point to note is that markets look ahead. They do not wait to see how policies play out.

Gold may begin moving before the first rate cut occurs if the market expects policy changes in the future. In some cases, gold has posted strong gains while the Federal Reserve was still holding rates steady.

The more important takeaway is that gold has often performed well when the Federal Reserve shifts its focus from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth. Of course, every cycle has differentiating factors. Still, history shows that lower rates, weaker real returns, and rising uncertainty can create favorable conditions for gold.

You can see a summary of this information in the table below:

Period	Gold Price Change	Key Driver
1970-1980	+2,300%+	Inflation and negative real rates
2001-2011	+500%+	Fed easing and financial uncertainty
2019-2020	Strong gains	Rate cuts and pandemic fears

If you take nothing else away from this section, it should be this: investors should pay attention when monetary policy shifts direction.

Central Bank Buying Trends: Why Governments Are Accumulating Gold

When most people think about gold buyers, they picture private buyers, collectors, or jewelry consumers.

In reality, some of the biggest buyers in the world are central banks.

A central bank is the institution that manages a country's money supply and foreign currency reserves. Many central banks hold assets such as U.S. dollars, euros, government bonds, and gold.

In recent years, https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/central-banks-buying-gold";>central banks have been building their gold reserves at steady and increasing rates. China has led the charge, but many other nations have followed the trend in an effort to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. You can see that trend shown in the table below:

Year	Central Bank Gold Purchases
2022	1,082 tonnes
2023	1,037 tonnes
2024	1,045 tonnes

Why would nations want to diversify from the dollar? It's for the same reason that private citizens do. Central banks do not want to hold all their wealth in one asset. Nations want to spread risk away from the dollar, particularly as its worth has fluctuated so much in recent years.

Another reason central banks buy gold is financial security.

Unlike government bonds or bank deposits, physical gold does not depend on another country's promise to pay. Gold is a tangible asset that can be stored and controlled directly by the owner.

This feature is very appealing in times of economic trouble or, increasingly, geopolitical conflict. For example, one nation that has expanded its gold holdings is Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine, many western nations froze Russia's digital assets in sanctions. This had a devastating effect on the Russian economy.

Gold, however, cannot be frozen or suspended from outside nations. That is a tremendous advantage for countries that want to maximize their financial security.

When central banks buy gold, it can have a significant impact on the gold market.

These entities buy hundreds of tons of gold over time. Their purchases remove metal from the market, which helps with building long-term demand.

Another difference between central banks and private buyers is that central banks do not buy gold for short-term profit. They usually buy with a long-term strategy in mind. The result is that they create a steady source of gold demand even in times when the gold market weakens.

Of course, central bank buying is only one factor that affects gold prices. Interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and investor demand also play important roles. Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to monitor central bank buying habits.

Reasons Gold Could Rise in the Years Ahead

Several factors could support higher gold prices in the years ahead.

While no one can predict the future with certainty, many of the conditions that have driven past gold bull markets remain in place today.

One of the biggest factors is government debt.

The United States and many other countries continue to borrow large amounts of money. The U.S. national debt continues to rise, hitting $39 trillion dollars in June 2026. Such figures cause many to worry about the long-term value of the dollar and fiat currencies broadly.

Those concerns often turn people's attention to gold. Unlike other assets, it is very difficult to freeze gold access.

Inflation is another reason some people remain bullish on gold.

Although inflation has cooled from recent highs, prices for many goods and services remain much higher than they were just a few years ago. If inflation proves harder to control than expected, investors may increase their demand for assets than help them preserve purchasing power.

Next up are interest rates. As noted before, gold often performs well in times of low or negative real interest rates. If central banks begin cutting rates while inflation remains strong, cash and bonds often generate weaker returns. Weak or negative yields in other investments often cause people to turn to gold.

The continuing trend of central banks buying gold also bodes well for gold. The intense interest in precious metals from so many central banks keeps the supply of gold low. That bolsters gold prices, and it often means that the supply cannot keep up with demand.

Another important thing to look for is investor sentiment surrounding the economy. When fears run high about coming recessions, banking stress, or financial instability often increase in safe-haven assets. Gold has a long history of attracting investors in times like this.

Geopolitical tensions have historically had a similar effect. In a bittersweet turn, military conflicts, trade disputes, and growing tension between world powers often bolsters gold. Gold has a reputation for providing a store of value outside the financial system. In the eyes of many, that gives gold a chance of securing their assets against global financial uncertainty.

None of these factors guarantee that gold prices will rise. However, when several of them occur at the same time, gold has often performed well. That is why many investors continue to watch inflation, interest rates, government debt, central bank buying, and economic conditions when evaluating gold's long-term outlook.

Reasons Gold Could Fall

Gold has many supporters, but investors should also understand the risks.

No asset moves in a straight line forever. Although gold does have a trend of long-term value retention, it can also have periods of relative weak performance. That could very well happen again.

One critical risk is the U.S. dollar getting stronger.

Although this is not always the case, it is generally true that gold and the dollar move in opposite directions. If the dollar gains strength, gold can become more expensive in other countries. That can reduce demand and put downward pressure on prices.

Higher real interest rates could also hurt gold.

When investors can earn high yields and returns from savings accounts, bonds, or other fixed income investments, gold often loses its appeal. The chief detractor for the yellow metal is its inability to generate yields or pay interest.

A strong economy could create another challenge.

In the face of low unemployment and rising corporate profits, many investors may prefer stocks and other growth assets. During periods of strong optimism, demand for safe-haven assets often declines.

Lower inflation could also limit gold gains.

Many investors buy gold to protect their assets from inflation and reduced purchasing power. If inflation continues to fall and remains under control, some investors may feel less need to hold gold as a hedge.

Investor sentiment is another factor to watch.

Gold prices can rise quickly when fear spreads through financial markets. The opposite can also happen. If confidence returns and investors become more comfortable taking risks, money may flow out of gold and into other assets.

Gold vs Stocks, Bonds, and Cash

Gold is often compared to stocks, bonds, and cash. Each asset plays a different role for investors. Likewise, each performs well under different conditions and circumstances.

Stocks serve best as a growth asset.

A strong economy helps businesses earn more money and increase profits. Over long periods, stocks have delivered higher returns than most other asset classes. Investors should remember, though, that stocks can also experience sharp declines during recessions, market crashes, and periods of financial stress.

Bonds are often used for income and stability.

Investors lend money to governments or companies and receive interest payments in return. That means bonds can help investors reduce their portfolio risk. However, their value may fall when interest rates rise or inflation remains high.

Cash provides safety and liquidity.

Money held in savings accounts, money market funds, or short-term deposits is easy to access. Cash can be useful during uncertain times, but it often loses purchasing power when inflation rises faster than interest earnings.

Gold plays a different role.

Unlike stocks, gold has little connection to corporate profits. Unlike bonds, it does not depend on a borrower making payments. Unlike cash, it cannot be created by a central bank.

Many investors own gold because they believe it can help preserve wealth during periods of inflation, economic uncertainty, or financial market stress.

What you'll notice in this is that gold is not always the best performing asset. When the stock market has a strong bull market, it often leaves gold behind. Similarly, when interest rates are high, they often make bonds and cash may become more attractive.

The key point is that gold does not have to outperform every other asset class to be valuable. Its strength comes from diversification.

Because gold often responds differently to economic events than stocks and bonds, it can help balance risk within a portfolio. For many investors, that makes gold less of a replacement for stocks, bonds, or cash and more of a complement to them.

Frequently Asked Questions About Gold Prices

Gold may look expensive after reaching new highs. However, its price does not tell the full story. To understand whether gold is worth its price, investors should compare it to inflation, government debt, the value of the dollar, and real interest rates. If those pressures keep building, gold may still have room to rise over time.

Gold prices could rise if inflation stays high, interest rates fall, the dollar weakens, or investors become more concerned about the economy. Central bank buying and global tensions can also support higher prices.

Gold could fall if the U.S. dollar strengthens, real interest rates rise, inflation cools, or the economy remains strong. In that case, investors may prefer stocks, bonds, or cash instead of gold.

No. Gold often performs well during inflation, but the relationship is not automatic. Gold tends to do best when inflation is high and interest rates do not keep up. That is when real returns on cash and bonds can fall.

Yes. Gold can rise when interest rates are high if inflation is also high, or if investors expect rates to fall soon. What matters most is the return investors earn after inflation.

Final Thoughts

Will the price of gold go up? By this point, you should know that there is no guaranteed answer to that question. Economic factors can change in ways that experts do not always anticipate.

However, there are several factors that you can examine to get an idea of how the market will move.

Keep an eye on inflation.

Monitor the real interest rates.

Study the buying habits of central banks.

Get a feel for investor sentiment and the demand for gold.

Following these tips can give you a very good idea of how the gold market is likely to move. From there, you can make an educated, informed prediction. Then, once you've made your prediction, you can decide whether it's a good time to buy gold for your portfolio.

What Canadian Coins Are Silver? Complete Guide to Silver Canadian Coins - Money Metals

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

Many newcomers to silver investing look for the best assets to bolster their portfolio, all while missing one crucial fact: they may already own silver.

Silver used to be far more commonplace, making up much of older Canadian coinage. That leads to a critical question: what Canadian coins are silver?

Finding silver Canadian coins does not have to be hard. You may find it in an old jar of change if you know what to look for. You can also find silver Canadian currency online through precious metals exchanges.

We will give you all the information you need about silver coins in this guide. You can find out what Canadian coins are silver, how much silver those coins hold, and most importantly, what they are worth.

What Canadian Coins Are Silver? Full List by Year

Canadian coins are primarily silver if minted before 1967, when most contained 80% silver. Coins from 1967–1968 may contain partial silver, while coins minted after 1968 generally contain no silver.

Pre-1967 = 80% silver
1967 = mixed (50% or 80%)
1968 = some 50%, most not silver

Why Canada Used Silver in Coins

For most of its history, Canada (and much of the world) followed a simple monetary principle: coins should be made with real, intrinsic value. To accomplish this, coins were made with precious metals, especially silver.

Until the late 1960s, many Canadian coins were minted with an 80% silver purity alloy. This standard mirrored other major economies, including the United States and United Kingdom. In the United Kingdom especially, silver currency had long been the norm, something it imparted to its North American colonies.

The idea behind this principle was simple. A coin’s silver content helped anchor the public’s trust in the financial system.

That system broke down in the 20th century.

It didn’t happen all at once. It began with heightened industrialization, which led to an increased demand for silver. The global supply tightened. The result was predictable: https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>the market price of silver rose drastically.

Eventually, the metal inside coins became worth more than the face value stamped on them. When that happens, coins start disappearing from circulation. People hoard them, melt them, or export them.

Canada responded in the same way as many other nations. In 1967, Canada reduced the silver content in its coinage (down to 50% in some, as opposed to 80% originally). In 1968, the nation eliminated silver almost entirely by 1968. Instead of silver, the Royal Canadian Mint made its coins with cheaper materials like nickel.

This was not unique to Canada. The United States removed silver from circulating dimes and quarters in 1965. The U.K. had already begun to debase its coinage earlier in the same century after the World Wars. Across the Western world, governments made the same move for the same reason: fiat currency was replacing metal-backed money.

For today’s collector or investor, that transition created a clear dividing line. Coins minted before the late 1960s often contain real silver. Coins minted after this decade generally do not contain silver in their composition.

Silver Canadian Coins by Denomination

Silver Canadian Dimes

Canadian dimes are one of the most common ways people accidentally come across silver.

Any dime minted prior to 1967 was struck in 80% silver, making these small coins surprisingly valuable relative to their size. In 1967, the Royal Canadian Mint introduced a transition year. Some dimes were still struck in 80% silver, while others were reduced to 50% silver, with no easy visual difference between them.

By 1968, the change was nearly complete. A small number of early 1968 dimes were struck in 50% silver, but the vast majority were produced in nickel. This makes 1968 a tricky year for investors. Dimes from this year may need to undergo testing to verify their silver content.

Silver Canadian Quarters

Canadian quarters follow nearly the same pattern as dimes. However, they tend to attract more attention from collectors due to their familiar designs.

Quarters minted before 1967 contain 80% silver, and like dimes, the 1967 issue is split between 80% and 50% silver compositions. The iconic caribou design makes these coins easy to recognize, even for beginners.

In 1968, silver content was phased out almost entirely. However, a limited number of 50% silver quarters did enter circulation before the Mint fully transitioned to a nickel composition.

Due to the quarter’s larger size, they contain more silver by weight than dimes. That makes them especially appealing to investors who want to stack small-denomination silver. Many investors prefer pre-1967 Canadian quarters as a simple, recognizable way to accumulate physical metal.

Silver Canadian Half Dollars

Half dollars are less commonly encountered, but they offer a meaningful step up in silver content. Like other denominations, Canadian half dollars minted before 1967 contained 80% silver. The 1967 issues again include both 80% and 50% silver versions.

By 1968, silver was largely eliminated from the half dollar as well.

Although half dollars never circulated quite as broadly as dimes and quarters, they remain a popular collectible for collectors and investors. They contain higher silver weight per coin due to their larger size. Each coin contains 0.30 troy ounces of silver, meaning that investors only need four to reach a full troy ounce.

Silver Canadian Dollars

Canadian silver dollars are among the most recognizable and widely collected coins in the country’s history. Among the many designs this coin has featured, none are as popular as the famous Voyageur dollar.

This famous coin was introduced in 1935. The coin face shows a canoe with a voyageur and indigenous guide paddling across the northern waters. It remains one of the most iconic designs ever produced by the Royal Canadian Mint.

From 1935 through 1967, Canadian dollars were struck in 80% silver. As with other denominations, some 1967 dollars were reduced to 50% silver during the transition.

After 1968, circulating Canadian dollars were no longer made with silver. However, the Mint continued producing commemorative and collector coins with silver content. The difference between these collector and circulating coins often trips up beginners.

Because of their size, silver dollars contain significantly more silver than smaller coins. That makes them appealing not only to collectors, but also to investors who want larger, more efficient units of silver without moving into modern bullion products.

Master Table: Canadian Silver Coin Breakdown

For quick reference, here’s how Canadian silver coins break down by denomination, year, and purity:

Coin	Years Containing Silver	Silver Content	Key Notes
Dime	Pre-1967	80%	Common in circulation finds
Dime	1967	50% or 80%	Mixed composition year
Dime	1968 (early only)	50%	Most are nickel, requires testing
Quarter	Pre-1967	80%	Caribou design, widely recognized
Quarter	1967	50% or 80%	Transition year
Half Dollar	Pre-1967	80%	Higher silver weight per coin
Dollar	1935–1967	80%	Includes Voyageur design
All Denominations	Post-1968	0%	Circulating coins are not silver

This table gives you a fast way to identify which coins are worth a closer look. It also shows which coins you can skip as you look for silver coins.

How Much Silver Is in $1 Face Value of Canadian Coins?

For investors, one of the most practical ways to evaluate Canadian silver coins is by face value, not by counting individual coins.

Instead of tracking every dime or quarter, experienced buyers often ask a simpler question:

How much actual silver is in $1 of Canadian coins?

Face Value	Silver Content (80%)
$1	~0.60 oz
$5	~3.0 oz
$10	~6.0 oz

Pre-1967 Coins (80% Silver)

For coins minted before 1967, the math is consistent and widely accepted in the bullion market:

$1 face value of pre-1967 Canadian coins contains approximately 0.60 troy ounces of silver

This includes any combination of:

10 dimes
4 quarters
2 half dollars
1 silver dollar

As long as the total face value equals $1, the silver content is roughly the same.

1967 Coins (Mixed Silver Content)

Coins from 1967 are less predictable.

Some are 80% silver
Others are 50% silver

Most bullion dealers treat unsorted 1967 coins as lower-purity silver unless verified:

$1 face value of 1967 coins is typically estimated at 0.50–0.60 troy ounces of silver

In practice, experienced buyers discount 1967 coins due to inconsistent composition.

1968 Coins (Mostly Not Silver)

By 1968, silver had largely been removed from circulation.

A small number of coins contain 50% silver
The majority contain no silver at all

As a result, 1968 coins are generally not counted as silver unless verified.

Why Face Value Matters

Thinking in face value simplifies everything:

Easier to buy and sell in bulk
Faster to estimate melt value
Standardized across dealers and markets

For example, if silver is $25 per ounce:

$1 face value of pre-1967 coins ≈ $15 in melt value
$10 face value ≈ $150 in silver

(This assumes ~0.60 oz per $1 face value.)

The Bottom Line for Investors

If you remember one rule, make it this:

$1 face value of pre-1967 Canadian coins ≈ 0.60 oz of silver

That simple conversion is how most experienced buyers quickly evaluate deals, compare premiums, and build positions in Canadian “junk silver.”

It’s not exact down to the decimal, but it’s close enough to make fast, informed decisions in the real world.

How to Tell If Your Canadian Coin Is Silver

Not every old Canadian coin contains silver. That’s especially true of the coins from 1967-1968, which have occasional silver coins, but also have varying silver content. You can identify most silver coins in seconds with just a few simple checks.

Check the Date (Fastest Method)

Start with the simplest test: look at the year on the coin.

Pre-1967 coins: Almost always 80% silver
1967 coins: Either 80% or 50% silver (must verify further)
1968 coins: Mostly not silver, but some early issues are 50%

If the coin is dated 1969 or later, it’s not silver (for standard circulating coins). This one quick step can filter out the majority of non-silver coins.

Look at the Edge Color

Silver coins have a distinct, uniform appearance on the edge.

Silver coins: Solid silver-gray edge, no visible layers
Non-silver coins: Often show a darker or copper/nickel stripe

This is one of the quickest visual indicators. If you see a layered or two-tone edge, the coin likely contains no silver.

Use a Magnet Test

Silver is not magnetic. Nickel, which replaced silver in Canadian coins, is.

Place a magnet near the coin
If it sticks or reacts strongly, it’s not silver
If there’s no attraction, it could be silver

This is especially useful for 1968 coins, where composition varies and visual clues aren’t always enough.

Check the Weight

Silver coins typically weigh slightly more than their base-metal counterparts.

Silver versions feel denser and heavier for their size
Nickel coins often feel lighter or less substantial

For precise verification, you can use a small digital scale and compare the weight to known specifications. This method is more advanced, but very reliable.

Putting It All Together

In most cases, you can identify a silver Canadian coin using just two steps: date and magnet. For borderline years like 1967 and 1968, combining multiple tests gives you a much higher level of confidence.

Once you know what to look for, spotting silver becomes second nature: that’s where the real opportunity lies. Many of these coins still turn up in old collections, estate lots, and forgotten drawers, often overlooked by people who do not realize what they are holding.

Key Dates, Exceptions, and Gotchas

Generally, Canadian silver coins are easy to identify. However, the transition years introduce just enough complexity to cause mistakes.

The biggest source of confusion is 1967. That year, the Royal Canadian Mint produced coins in both 80% and 50% silver. Unfortunately, there is no easy way to tell these apart just by looking. Two coins with the same date and design can have different silver content. That means potential investors and collectors must rely on weight, testing, or bulk assumptions when buying.

Then comes 1968, which is even more misleading. Some early 1968 dimes and quarters were struck in 50% silver, but most were made from nickel. Visually, they look nearly identical; that means many of the tests above may not help, as most of those aim at finding whether a coin contains silver. They do not focus on finding out how much silver is in a coin.

Another common mistake is assuming all coins of a certain type are equal. They are not. Silver content depends on both the year and the minting batch, especially during transition periods. Blanket assumptions can lead to overpaying.

Finally, do not confuse circulating coins with commemoratives. After 1968, Canada stopped using silver in everyday coins; however, the Mint continued producing collector and commemorative issues in silver. These are often higher purity (.500 or .925), but were never meant for circulation.

Melt Value: What Are Canadian Silver Coins Worth?

When it comes to Canadian silver coins, most of their value comes down to one thing: melt value.

Melt value is simply the market value of the silver inside the coin, based on current spot prices. It is different from numismatic value, which depends on rarity, condition, and collector demand. While rare coins can carry premiums, most circulated Canadian silver coins trade primarily for their metal content.

This is where the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver";>term “junk silver” comes in. Despite the name, there’s nothing junk about it. It refers to common, circulated coins valued mainly for their silver content rather than collectibility. Pre-1967 Canadian dimes, quarters, and half dollars fall squarely into this category.

Each coin contains a known amount of silver:

Dimes: small fractional silver content
Quarters: roughly double a dime
Half dollars and dollars: significantly more weight

Because these coins are 80% or 50% silver, their actual silver weight is slightly less than their total weight. Investors often calculate value based on “asw” (actual silver weight).

To estimate melt value:

Check the current spot price of silver
Multiply by the coin’s silver content
Adjust for purity (80% or 50%)

For example, if silver is $70 per ounce, a group of pre-1967 coins with one ounce of actual silver would be worth roughly $70 in melt value, regardless of their face value.

This is why many investors like Canadian silver coins. They offer recognizable, divisible silver that tracks the metal price closely, without the higher premiums https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/canadian-silver-maple-leaf";>often seen in modern bullion products.

Why Investors Buy Canadian Silver Coins

Canadian silver coins have a subtle advantage that many modern bullion products do not quite match. They combine real silver content, broad recognition, and legal tender status. Even better, they do not have the marketing premiums that often come with newly minted rounds and coins.

In short, they have a massive advantage as fractional silver. Instead of holding a single one-ounce coin, you can own silver in smaller divisible units like dimes and quarters. That has real-world advantages. Smaller denominations are easier to trade, easier to sell in portions, and more flexible if you ever need to liquidate gradually.

They also have recognizability. Pre-1967 Canadian coins are not only known in Canada; they have a global reputation among dealers and investors. You likely will not have to explain what the coins are or prove their authenticity during a transaction.

That built-in trust adds liquidity, especially compared to obscure private mint products.

Next, there’s cost. Canadian “junk silver” coins carry lower premiums over spot than modern bullion coins. You’re paying closer to the actual metal value, as opposed to branding, packing, and collector premiums. Investors who prioritize silver accumulation over aesthetics will find this to be a major appeal.

Perhaps the most fundamental point is that these coins provide a link to a time when money still held tangible value. Today’s financial system runs on confidence and policy decisions. Silver coins do not require that same leap of faith. They hold intrinsic value measured in real ounces.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are 1967 Canadian coins silver?

Yes, but not always the same kind. Coins minted in 1967 were produced in both 80% and 50% silver, depending on the batch. Unfortunately, there’s no simple visual way to tell the difference. If you’re buying or sorting 1967 coins, it’s safest to assume a mixed composition unless you verify them by weight or testing.

How much silver is in a Canadian quarter?

It depends on the year.

Pre-1967 quarters contain 80% silver
1967 quarters may contain 50% or 80% silver
1968 quarters are mostly nickel, with only a small number struck in 50% silver

In practical terms, pre-1967 quarters are the most reliable choice for consistent silver content.

Are Canadian nickels silver?

Generally, no.

Canadian nickels were historically made from nickel (as the name suggests), not silver. There are a few exceptions during wartime when alternative alloys were used, but standard Canadian nickels do not contain silver and are not considered part of “junk silver” investing.

What is the melt value of a Canadian dime?

The melt value depends entirely on the current price of silver.

A pre-1967 Canadian dime contains 80% silver, so its value is based on its actual silver weight, not its face value. As silver prices rise or fall, the melt value changes accordingly. Investors typically calculate this using the spot price and the coin’s silver content.

Are Canadian silver coins a good investment?

They can be, depending on your goals.

Canadian silver coins are popular with investors because they offer:

Lower premiums compared to modern bullion
Recognizable, government-issued silver
Fractional denominations for flexibility

They are especially useful for those who want to accumulate physical silver in practical, divisible units rather than larger one-ounce coins.

Simple Rules to Remember

If you take nothing else away from this guide, there are a few simple rules.

First, most Canadian coins minted before 1967 contain silver. That is your easiest win. Dimes, quarters, half dollars, and dollars from that era are typically 80% silver and widely recognized.

Second, treat 1967 and 1968 with caution. There are transition years. Some coins contain silver, and some do not. Because of this, appearances can be misleading. When in doubt, test or verify before assigning value.

Beyond that, the opportunity is straightforward. Millions of these coins were produced, and many still sit unnoticed in old collections, drawers, and inherited boxes. People overlook them because they look ordinary. They are not.

At the end of the day, Canadian silver coins represent something increasingly rare: money with tangible value. No counterparty risk. No policy decisions. Just weight in real metal that has held purchasing power for generations.

U.S. Precious Metals Industry Coalition Urges Congress to Advance SILVER Act to Address Critical Infrastructure Concentration & National Security Risks

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

(Washington, D.C.) — A broad coalition representing dozens of key stakeholders across all segments of the U.S. precious metals industry formally called on Congress today to advance the System Integrity through Licensed Vault Expansion & Resilience Act (SILVER Act), bipartisan legislation designed to address national security risks by strengthening the resilience, competitiveness, and geographic diversity of America's precious metals market infrastructure.

The Precious Metals Industry Coalition for Market Security and Access, whose members include U.S.-based depositories, mints, dealers, refiners, miners, logistics providers, banks, insurers, and investors submitted a letter to congressional leaders highlighting what it describes as a significant and underappreciated concentration and security risk within the nation's regulated precious metals delivery and settlement system.

"Geographic redundancy is a foundational principle of resilient infrastructure and risk management across critical industries and financial systems," the coalition stated in https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/SILVER-Act-Industry-Coalition-Letter-6-11-26.pdf"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a letter dated June 11, 2026 signed by more than 40 companies and trade organizations. The current single-region dependency is “creating dangerous concentration risks, limiting competition and regional participation, and imposing artificial constraints on the marketplace.”

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The SILVER Act (SB 4621 and H.R. 8007) is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/21/sens-risch-and-cortez-masto-introduce-bipartisan-silver-act-to-derisk-us-precious-metals-market-infrastructure-004933"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">sponsored by Sen. James Risch (R-ID), Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV), Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC), Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-ID), and Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) and is https://www.morningstar.com/news/accesswire/1158299msn/cftc-chairman-to-examine-national-security-risks-from-geographical-concentration-of-depositories-for-precious-metals"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">supported by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig.

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The coalition's full letter and its signers can be https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/SILVER-Act-Industry-Coalition-Letter-6-11-26.pdf"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">found here, and it reads as follows:

On behalf of our precious metals industry coalition partners consisting of U.S. based depositories, mints, dealers, refineries, miners, logistics providers, banks, insurers, investors, and metals financing businesses, we urge you to address a significant and underappreciated concentration risk within America’s precious metals market infrastructure that poses vulnerabilities to national security, financial stability, supply chain resilience, and market continuity.

Currently, there are no depositories approved for the regulated futures markets outside a small sub-region within the Northeastern U.S., and this poses a systemic risk to the market, especially given the critical nature of precious metals and their increasingly vital role within the global financial system and the real-world economy.

Precious metals are not only financial assets; they are also essential inputs for electronics, aerospace, medical technology, energy systems, and defense-related manufacturing.

This concentration problem stems from an outdated practice by the primary derivatives clearing organization that requires gold storage vaults to be located within 150 miles of New York City. Although no internal rule exists for silver, platinum, or palladium, vaults for these metals are, in practice, also not permitted outside the region.

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A terrorist attack, natural disaster, cyber incident, infrastructure failure, or other security threat affecting this narrow corridor could severely disrupt metals settlement and delivery functions, undermining financial market stability and harming America’s supply chains.

Geographic redundancy is a foundational principle of resilient infrastructure and risk management across critical industries and financial systems. A more geographically distributed depository network would strengthen delivery capacity and settlement continuity during periods of market stress.

But this problem extends beyond risk exposure. The lack of geographic diversity also undermines market liquidity, competition, and access. It also undermines the ability to build precious metals supply chain infrastructure in other regions of the country.

Greater regional participation would support investment, infrastructure development, and skilled employment opportunities in states that already play a major role in domestic precious metals production and processing.

Many market participants across America are disadvantaged because nearby high-quality commercial depositories — already operating successfully under rigorous commercial and security standards — have been unable to participate in the public markets and therefore cannot offer ultimate liquidity. This is especially true in the Western U.S. where a significant amount of gold and silver mining, minting, manufacturing, processing, and trading takes place.

There is also demand from investors, businesses, and financial institutions for greater financial infrastructure outside the New York region and broader geographic choice.

Many prefer to store their metals closer to where they live or do business. Rather than removing their metal from Exchange warehouses altogether, these holders should be allowed access to new options, thereby increasing overall market liquidity.

Expanding Exchange participation to include qualified facilities across the nation would increase competition, improve efficiency, and broaden market access. For example, commercial storage costs in other regions are materially lower than the maximum fees currently permitted — and commonly charged — by Exchange-approved depositories. Transportation costs can also be reduced which creates savings for all market participants, including end commercial users, consumers, and investors.

Under Title VIII of Dodd-Frank, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) designates certain derivatives clearing organizations (DCOs) as “systemically important financial market utilities,” and they benefit from an implicit government backstop. This creates a heightened expectation that they maintain robust risk-management practices that promote financial stability and operational resilience and reduce concentration risk. That’s because their failure or disruption could create severe liquidity or credit risks, thereby threatening the stability of the U.S. financial system.

At present, the primary DCO for the commodities futures market has been unwilling to consider adding qualified depositories in any other region, creating dangerous concentration risks, limiting competition and regional participation, and imposing artificial constraints on the marketplace. This not only harms investors, service providers, producers, and other market participants but also undermines the market as a whole.

The System Integrity through Licensed Vault Expansion & Resilience Act (SILVER Act) – SB 4621 and H.R. 8007 – offers a clear path forward.

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The SILVER Act does not mandate approval of any specific depository. Rather, it promotes transparency, objective evaluation criteria, and due consideration of geographic concentration risk in depository approval decisions. It ensures appropriate consideration of the public interest in reducing systemic risk to the financial system and avoiding restraints on trade.

Passage of this simple bipartisan bill would modernize the nation’s precious metals infrastructure by promoting regional diversification, reducing costs, strengthening domestic supply chains, enabling new innovative digital products, and expanding market liquidity and access —while better aligning the system with the realities of a national marketplace.

We respectfully urge the Committee to advance the SILVER Act and support a more resilient, competitive, and geographically diversified precious metals market infrastructure.

About the Coalition

The Precious Metals Industry Coalition for Market Security & Access represents a broad cross-section of the U.S. precious metals industry, including depositories, mints, dealers, refiners, miners, logistics providers, banks, insurers, investors, and metals financing businesses committed to strengthening the security, resilience, competitiveness, and accessibility of America's precious metals markets.

Have a Recipe: Why Long-Term Investors Should Ignore the Noise and Focus on Fundamentals

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey draws an analogy from professional hockey to explain one of the most important principles in investing: having a process and sticking to it. Using the recent recognition of Tampa Bay Lightning coach John Cooper as the NHL's Jack Adams Award winner, Maharrey argues that successful investing, like successful coaching, requires discipline, patience, and a commitment to a proven recipe—even when circumstances become difficult.

Maharrey contends that investors are too often driven by headlines, market volatility, and emotional reactions. Instead, they should establish a long-term framework rooted in their economic outlook and avoid making wholesale changes every time markets fluctuate.

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The Importance of Process Over Emotion

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Maharrey referenced a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/06/markets-are-treating-the-iran-conflict-as-a-shock-not-a-structural-change-004972";>recent interview with Axel Merk, who emphasized that investors need a process above all else. Merk argued that even an imperfect process is better than having no process because it prevents investors from constantly shifting strategies in response to daily news cycles.

For Maharrey, that process centers on holding gold and silver as long-term stores of value. While he acknowledges that precious metals prices can experience sharp short-term swings—including gold's recent $150 one-day decline—he maintains that temporary volatility does not alter the long-term reality of currency debasement and inflation.

He stressed that investors should make adjustments to their strategies only when structural economic changes warrant it, not in response to every geopolitical headline or market correction. A disciplined process, he argued, helps remove destructive emotional decision-making from investing.

Maharrey also highlighted Money Metals' monthly installment program, noting that investors can begin building a precious metals position with as little as $100 per month, allowing them to accumulate gold and silver gradually over time.

Inflation Remains the Central Economic Threat

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Turning to the broader economy, Maharrey reiterated a theme familiar to regular listeners: inflation remains the primary reason he owns gold and silver. He argued that inflation is not an accidental byproduct of policy but rather an intentional objective, noting that central bankers explicitly target 2% annual inflation. At that pace, the purchasing power of the dollar declines by roughly 10% every five years.

According to Maharrey, policymakers are more interested in managing public perception of inflation than eliminating it entirely. He contends that official statistics often understate the economic pain experienced by consumers, even as household budgets remain strained, consumer confidence remains weak, and Americans struggle under rising debt burdens.

He pointed to growing use of "buy now, pay later" financing for essentials such as groceries and gasoline as evidence of mounting financial stress among consumers. Despite these realities, official economic reports continue to paint a comparatively optimistic picture.

A New AI-Powered “Reality Index” Challenges Official Inflation Data

A major focus of the episode was a new analytical tool known as the Reality Index, which uses artificial intelligence to evaluate raw price data without many of the adjustments built into official https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/09/bullish-for-gold-spiking-inflation-could-send-real-yields-lower-now-matter-what-the-fed-does-004978";>government inflation measures. Maharrey discussed findings from Brownstone Institute President Jeffrey Tucker, who used the index to reassess the economic impact of pandemic lockdown policies.

According to Tucker's analysis, the economic damage caused by the lockdown era was significantly worse than official data suggests. The study estimates that the economy has lost approximately 12% of GDP since the pandemic period began and that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has been effectively cut in half.

Official government data indicates prices have risen roughly 26% since the lockdowns. However, the Reality Index paints a much more severe picture. By stripping away hedonic adjustments and other statistical modifications, the index attempts to track actual consumer prices more directly.

The methodology was developed by Tom Elliott, described by Tucker as an independent researcher based in Madrid who employed AI tools to reconstruct historical price indexes using Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The resulting figures were striking. Tucker reported that a basket of goods costing $100 in 1980 would cost approximately $515 in 2025 according to the Reality Index, compared with just $391 under the official Consumer Price Index. Over a 45-year period, real prices increased 32% more than government figures suggest. Over 55 years, the Reality Index rose 54.4% faster than CPI.

Reassessing the Pandemic Economy

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The most dramatic findings emerged when Tucker examined the post-pandemic period. According to the Reality Index, purchasing power has declined by roughly 50% since 2019, nearly double the inflation implied by official government statistics.

Even more significantly, Tucker found that inflation never truly subsided. While official CPI data showed inflation peaking in 2022 before declining sharply, the Reality Index suggests inflationary pressures https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/04/negative-economic-impact-of-pandemic-lockdowns-likely-worse-than-data-suggests-004968";>never dropped below 6% annually.

Maharrey argued that these findings help explain the persistent disconnect between government reports and public sentiment. Consumers continue to report financial hardship because, according to this alternative analysis, their economic experiences are far closer to reality than official inflation measures indicate.

Using Reality Index data within GDP calculations, Tucker concluded that the economic downturn triggered in 2020 may never have truly ended. He described the situation as a "recession without end," estimating cumulative GDP losses of between 5% and 12% from 2019 to the present. Tucker noted that such losses amount to roughly half the economic decline experienced during the Great Depression.

While acknowledging that researchers may debate the methodology, Maharrey argued that the alternative data aligns more closely with what ordinary Americans are experiencing in their daily lives.

The Federal Reserve’s Catch-22

Maharrey then returned to another recurring theme: the Federal Reserve's increasingly difficult policy dilemma. He cited comments from Ryan McIntyre, President of Sprott Inc., who recently told Kitco News that the Fed is effectively "walking a tightrope."

According to Maharrey, the central bank faces two conflicting objectives. On one hand, it must keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation. On the other, it must avoid crushing an economy burdened by what he repeatedly calls a "debt black hole." Higher rates may restrain inflation, but they also increase pressure on governments, businesses, and consumers carrying massive debt loads.

McIntyre described the situation as precarious, arguing that policymakers have very little room for error. He estimated it is essentially a coin flip whether the Fed raises rates again before year-end. Nevertheless, he believes any pressure on gold from higher interest rates will be temporary because the larger threat remains sovereign debt.

Maharrey agreed, arguing that debt remains the most underappreciated risk in the financial system. While markets can easily measure inflation or unemployment, debt risks are much harder to quantify and time. As a result, investors often ignore them until a crisis emerges.

Why “All Roads Lead to Gold”

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Despite gold's strong performance https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/under-the-fed-tightrope-all-roads-lead-to-gold-004958";>over the past two years, McIntyre noted that Western investors remain significantly underallocated to precious metals. Gold ETF holdings remain below historical highs, while much of the strongest demand has come from Asia and emerging markets rather than North America and Europe.

Maharrey argued that even a modest portfolio shift toward gold could dramatically increase demand. He pointed to growing discussions among some investment professionals about replacing the traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation with a 60/20/20 model, reducing bond exposure and allocating 20% to gold.

According to both Maharrey and McIntyre, gold is uniquely positioned because it can perform well under multiple scenarios. If inflation remains elevated, gold helps preserve purchasing power. If economic conditions deteriorate, gold benefits from its safe-haven appeal. In either case, they argue, the long-term case for precious metals remains intact.

Final Takeaway

Maharrey closed the episode by returning to the central theme introduced at the beginning: investors need a recipe. Whether navigating inflation, questionable government data, pandemic aftereffects, or the Federal Reserve's debt-driven policy dilemma, he believes long-term success depends on maintaining a disciplined strategy rather than reacting emotionally to short-term events.

For Maharrey, that recipe continues to include https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>gold and silver as essential tools for preserving wealth in an era marked by inflation, excessive debt, and growing economic uncertainty.

Based on History We May Still Be in the Early Stages of a Long-Term Inflationary Cycle

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

History doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it often rhymes, and if the inflationary era of the 1960s and 70s is any indication, we are only in the early stages of a secular inflationary cycle.

Price inflation spiked in the wake of the COVID-era stimulus at 9.1 percent in June 2022. After insisting the surge was “transitory” for months, the Fed finally acted, raising interest rates from zero in March 2022 and ultimately pushing them to between 5.25 and 5.5 percent in July 2023.

Tighter monetary policy, along with relatively aggressive Fed balance sheet contraction, helped drive price inflation down. However, the central bank never got back to the 2 percent target.

Now https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/12/no-matter-how-you-slice-the-data-it-come-up-inflation-004912";>we’re seeing price inflation heat up again. The annual CPI rose to 3.8 percent in April, the highest level since May 2023.

Most analysts blame rising price inflation on the U.S.-Iran war. The ensuing oil shock has undoubtedly juiced price inflation, but it’s not solely to blame. The economy has been on an inflationary trajectory for more than a year, with https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL";>the money supply increasing from $21.61 trillion in February 2025 to $22.67 trillion in February 2026, a 4.9 percent increase.

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This is, by definition, inflation.

Keep in mind that the CPI doesn’t measure https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/12/common-definition-of-inflation-you-hear-today-is-wrong-government-propaganda-002925";>inflation as economists have historically defined it. From an economic standpoint, inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit. Rising consumer prices measured by CPI are one symptom of this monetary inflation. Even without the war, this rising inflation would have eventually found its way into consumer prices.

The Inflationary 60s and 70s

Whether it’s due to the war, the increasing money supply, or some combination of the two, price inflation is clearly setting up for a second wave.

And this is exactly what happened in the 1960s and 1970s.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cpi-today-and-60s.jpg"; width="700" height="504" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

As you can see by the chart, the price inflation didn’t rise in a straight line during that era. It came in three waves. If history is any indication, we may well still be early in this inflationary surge.

You’ll note that the first wave of inflation eased in the early 1970s. The Fed hiked rates in 1969, with the effective federal funds rate peaking at 8 percent in 1969. This brought price inflation back under control, and the Fed cut rates in 1970. That set the stage for the second wave of inflation that peaked in 1974.

Once again, the central bank responded by jacking up rates, with a 10.5 percent peak in 1974. And once again, the inflationary pressure eased.

So, what did the central bank do?

It eased rates again, setting the stage for the third wave of price inflation.

Price inflation wasn’t put in the grave for good until Paul Volcker cranked rates to 20 percent.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Federal-funds-rate--1960---1980.png"; width="700" height="394" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

If you see a worrisome trend here, you get the point.

The Government Spending Machine

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Price inflation is ultimately driven by money creation. But why do governments print money?

They need to borrow and spend.

Government outlays increased steadily in the 60s and 70s thanks to Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society social spending, coupled with the Vietnam War. The necessitated borrowing.

Fast forward to the most recent inflation spike. It followed massive levels of spending and stimulus during the pandemic. To support the borrowing and spending, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to zero (after barely pushing them up in the wake of the Great Recession) and ran nearly $5 trillion in https://youtu.be/ipaQAgOCJBk?si=YJ3b4fOTaKEiByFo"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">quantitative easing (QE). The Fed monetized nearly all the debt accumulated during the COVID years. In other words, it bought government bonds with money created out of thin air and held those bonds on its balance sheet. This created artificial demand for U.S. debt and allowed the government to borrow more at lower rates.

This chart shows a clear correlation between government spending (as a percentage of GDP) and price inflation (as measured by the CPI). That’s because borrowing, spending, and money creation are linked at the hip. Fed money printing supports government borrowing and spending.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cpi-v-federal-spending.png"; width="700" height="380" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Economist Mark Thornton argued that this is the very reason the Federal Reserve exists.

“The idea of the Fed is to help finance government largesse – to finance government spending and government deficits. That’s really what their true role is. It’s not balancing inflation and unemployment.”

Think about the ramifications today as the U.S. government continues to run massive budget deficits month after month.

And now we have a war.

The Iran conflict may well be the catalyst for the next inflation wave. (Not so much because oil is more expensive, but because the government will have to borrow and spend more – and the Fed will need to enable it.)

Again, history doesn’t always repeat. But this looks an awful lot like a sequel to the 60s and 70s.

Unfortunately, sequels are rarely better than the original.

Economist: Federal Reserve Policy Driving Disconnect Between Main St. and Wall St.

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 EST

Based on the rapid rise of the stock market, the economy is booming. Then why are so many https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/28/the-state-of-the-american-consumer-no-savings-and-buried-in-debt-004947";>American consumers broke, stressed, and buried in debt?

During a recent interview with Kitco News, economist Dr. Mark Thornton said the growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is the direct result of central bank monetary policy that led to decades of artificially low interest rates and monetary expansion.

Many people believe that interest rates are high right now, and there are growing worries that the central bank will hike further, but from a historical perspective, interest rates are relatively low.

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As the Federal Reserve waged its post-pandemic inflation fight, it hiked rates to 5.5 percent, but even that was still slightly below the historical average. Today, the rate is set at between 3.5 and 3.75 percent.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/fed-funds-rate-725.png"; width="700" height="484" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

The current interest rate environment only seems high because it was so low for so many years following the Great Recession. Today, we have a whole generation of people working in finance https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/23/after-decades-of-easy-money-young-people-cant-fathom-normal-interest-rates-004486";>who can’t conceptualize “normal” rates. This explains why so many people are desperate for rate cuts today. Zero percent seems closer to normal than 6 percent.

Artificially low interest rates come with incentives. Thornton notes that they help governments and corporations borrow money for expansion.

“It also helps the wealthy because they can leverage up their assets. And lower interest rates, as everybody knows, increase the price of assets.”

On the other hand, loose monetary policy doesn’t do much for working people.

“People who have very little in the way of physical assets outside of maybe a home or a few things like that, but they’re not really leveraging up very much, and so what they experience is just the eventual higher prices from increasing all that money.”

Among the assets juiced by easy money are stocks.

Thornton said the stock market is significantly overvalued in terms of historical norms, and it’s a direct result of the inflationary impact of easy money. He noted that the Buffet Indicator is two-and-a-half standard deviations above the historical long-term average, and the Case-Shiller measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at the second-highest level in history.

Thornton said these high stock market valuations can be explained by the Cantillon effect.

"The new money goes into the economy in general, but it goes into the hands first of a certain group of people. And so those groups are going to be advantaged because they're getting fresh money at current prices."

This explains the Wall Street boom and the giddiness on Wall Street.

But there is a dark side. As this new money circulates in the economy, it drives up prices on Main Street.

“Sometimes that’s almost imperceptible increases in prices, but it’s forcing prices up somewhere in the economy – assets, land, real estate, products, raw materials, and so forth, labor. … What is showing up on the kitchen table is higher prices.”

Thornton said the Iran war is exacerbating the pain on Main Street by driving up energy costs. While this isn’t the same as monetary inflation, the impact on the people around that kitchen table is no different.

“This is a tidal wave that is going to come back and smack the American consumer.”

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So, how long can an economy continue to run on two tracks?

Thornton notes that it’s been going on for “quite some time.”

“Lately, it’s been very intense because of COVID and the $5 trillion that was unleased.”

He noted that the Fed has been on an inflationary path for more than a year, pointing out that the central bank has effectively https://www.linkedin.com/posts/money-metals_the-fed-restarted-qe-without-saying-it-activity-7407400565279784960-M0OF/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">relaunched quantitative easing.

“They are unrelenting in, you know, dosing the American population with this inflationary gas. Eventually, it’s going to light on fire and burn the economy down, in some respect.”

How will the central bank respond?

Thornton said the Fed is in “https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>a Catch-22 position” and is likely looking for an excuse to cut rates despite the inflationary pressure.

“I think they’re going to be looking for the emergence of a crisis. They might call it a liquidity crisis, or a financing crisis, or a war crisis where they actually have to not increase interest rates and possibly cut interest rates. … I wouldn’t be surprised if something comes up where they actually get the opportunity to cut rates.”

This reveals a more fundamental reality. While the Fed's job is theoretically to maintain stable prices and employment, it has different priorities in practice.

“The idea of the Fed is to help finance government largesse – to finance government spending and government deficits. That’s really what their true role is. It’s not balancing inflation and unemployment.”

That's why, when push comes to shove, the Fed picks rescuing the economy with low interest rates and money printing rather than tackling inflation.

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FAQ: Why Gold Price Is Going Up

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Central Bank Buying

Economic and Political Uncertainty

Real Interest Rates: The Gold Indicator Many Investors Miss

Will the Price of Gold Go Up? Forecast Scenarios for 2026 and Beyond

How Gold Has Performed During Previous Federal Reserve Rate-Cut Cycles

Central Bank Buying Trends: Why Governments Are Accumulating Gold

Reasons Gold Could Rise in the Years Ahead

Reasons Gold Could Fall

Gold vs Stocks, Bonds, and Cash

Frequently Asked Questions About Gold Prices

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Final Thoughts

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The Bottom Line for Investors

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Check the Date (Fastest Method)

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Use a Magnet Test

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Are Canadian nickels silver?

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