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Why Is Silver Going Down - Fed Rate Hikes, a Strong Dollar, and Forced Futures Selling - Past Crash Recoveries, the Deficit Paradox, and Signs of a Bottom - Money Metals

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Last updated: September 17, 2026

Silver is going down because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, the U.S. dollar is firm, and traders who bought with borrowed money are selling. Taken together, those factors can have a significant pull against silver.

That’s not all. The silver market has also been impacted by fears regarding industrial demand and growing fears surrounding AI data centers.

The drop has been steep. Silver hit a record https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>$121.62 an ounce on January 29, 2026. On September 16, it closed near https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>$62.82. That is a loss of about 48%.

This guide will do more than discuss general market information. You will see how past silver crashes played out. You will see how physical silver performs differently than “paper” silver. Finally, you will find signals that can hint a bottoming out is coming.

What's Pushing Silver Down Right Now (Updated September 17, 2026)

	Price or level	Source
Silver all-time high (Jan. 29, 2026)	$121.62	https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>Investing News
Silver on July 31, 2026	About $58	https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/silver-down-big-peak-now-142500035.html";>Yahoo Finance
Silver on Sept. 16, 2026	$62.82	https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco
Drop from record high	About 48%	Calculated
Gold on Sept. 16, 2026	$4,261.80	https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco

The big story this week is the Fed. On September 16, the Fed raised its key rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Its own forecast showed that https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike by the end of the year. Silver gave up its early gains after the news.

Inflation is the reason for the hike. Consumer prices rose https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-fed-rate-hike-means-for-gold-silver-prices-september-2026/";>3.4% over the past year, well above the Fed's 2% target.

Silver is falling harder than gold. Gold has dropped from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-fed-rate-hike-means-for-gold-silver-prices-september-2026/";>more than $5,500 early this year to about $4,260. That is roughly a 23% loss. Silver has lost about twice as much.

Bottom line: As long as the Fed keeps raising rates, silver will likely stay under pressure. Track the live price on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price chart.

Why Is Silver Going Down? 6 Forces Causing the Fall

Most articles list these reasons and stop. Here, you will also learn how each one works and how to track it yourself.

1. Rising Interest Rates and Real Yields

When interest rates rise, it increases the opportunity cost for owning silver. Silver does not generate interest, so many investors prefer to invest in assets that benefit from the rate rise. That usually means cash and bonds.

However, the crucial factor is the real yield. The real yield is what is left of the interest rate once you factor in inflation. If a bond pays 5% while inflation sits at 3.4%, that means the real yield is about 1.6%. When real yields rise, silver usually struggles. When they fall, the silver market typically improves.

Right now, the 10-year Treasury yield sits near https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>5.00%. That is a strong pull away from metals.

What to watch: The https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10";>10-year TIPS yield on FRED. It tracks real yields each day.

2. A Stronger U.S. Dollar

Silver is priced in dollars globally. When the dollar gains strength, it results in silver costing more for buyers using other currencies. Those investors buy less silver, which then causes the price to fall.

For these reasons, silver and the dollar typically have an inverse relationship. When the dollar grows, silver declines. On September 16, the U.S. Dollar Index stood at https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>100.25 as the Fed turned more aggressive.

What to watch: The https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/";>U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A reading above 100 is a headwind for silver.

3. Forced Selling in the Futures Market

This is a crucial factor that too few sources take the time to explain.

Most silver trading takes place outside the physical silver market. Traders only put up a small deposit, called the margin, to control a large amount of silver. The exchange determines how big that deposit must be.

Here is how a margin hike forces selling:

Silver prices swing wildly.
The exchange raises the margin to protect itself.
Traders must add cash right away.
Traders who can't pay are forced to sell.
That selling pushes prices lower, which triggers more selling.

A simple example: Let’s say a trader controls $100,000 worth of silver futures at an 11% initial margin. That would amount to $11,000 on deposit. If the exchange raises that rate to 12.1%, the trader must now hold $12,100.

If they cannot add that $1,100, then their broker will sell the position. That will take place regardless of what the trader thinks silver is worth. Now picture the same position after margins jump to 18%. The $11,000 deposit becomes $18,000, and the trader has to find another $7,000.

This happened in 2026. Silver hit its record on January 29. One day prior, CME Group https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/what-are-margin-requirements-why-cmes-hike-triggered-a-silver-crash/";>raised margins on high-risk silver accounts. The initial rate went from 11% to 12.1% after the close on January 28. More hikes followed as the price broke.

An advisory dated January 30 lists the standard initial rate at 15%, effective February 2. By February 6, silver futures required 18% initial margin. That was up from 11% two weeks earlier. Silver had already crashed from its record to https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>around $71 by February 2. Analysts at https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-are-gold-silver-plunging";>Morningstar said speculators being forced out caused that crash. Supply and demand had not changed.

What to watch: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.margins.html";>CME's silver margin page. A margin hike during a volatile week is a warning sign.

4. Worries About Industrial Demand

Unlike gold, a lot of silver demand comes from the industrial sphere. People often underestimate just how vital silver is for so much industrial equipment. It goes into solar panels, electronics, cars, and data center hardware. So when the economy slows, silver demand can drop.

Two worries stand out in 2026:

AI data centers. Silver's rally was fed by hopes for AI spending. By summer, investors began to doubt that spending would pay off. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/silver-down-big-peak-now-142500035.html";>Yahoo Finance tied part of silver's drop to this "nervousness about AI data centers."
Solar thrifting. Solar makers keep finding ways to use less silver in each panel. The https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/";>Silver Institute expects industrial use of silver to fall 2% this year, to about 650 million ounces. That would be a four-year low.

Keep this in perspective. A 2% dip in demand is small. Silver fell about 48%. Fear about demand has done far more damage to silver value than the actual drop in demand.

5. Investors Selling Silver ETFs

ETF stands for exchange-traded funds. These funds hold metal on their shareholders’ behalf. That means when investors sell ETF shares, the fund may also sell silver. Heavy ETF selling https://invezz.com/za/news/2026/04/29/silver-price-at-risk-as-slv-etf-outflows-jump-ahead-of-fomc-decision/";>showed up several times in 2026, including before Fed meetings.

What to watch: The ounces held by the https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund";>iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Rising holdings suggest investors are coming back. Learn how ETFs differ from owning metal in our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/silver-etf-vs-physical-silver";>silver ETFs vs. physical silver.

6. Profit-Taking After a Huge Rally

Silver was trading https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/what-are-margin-requirements-why-cmes-hike-triggered-a-silver-crash/";>near $30 an ounce in 2025. In January 2026, the price of silver topped $120, though exact figures vary slightly. Regardless of the final figure, that period saw the price rise to about four times its starting level.

Moves that fast attract many short-term traders. When the trend breaks, many of them sell at once in an attempt to lock in their gains. Typically, sharp pullbacks follow sharp rallies.

Why Silver Falls Harder Than Gold

Silver and gold typically correlate to one another. However, while the two metals move in the same direction, silver swings much more. Our guide on https://www.moneymetals.com/price/do-gold-and-silver-prices-move-together";>whether gold and silver prices move together covers this in depth.

There are three main reasons:

Silver is a smaller market. Less money flows through it, so big trades move the price more.
Silver depends on industry. Gold is mostly held as money. Silver is mostly used in products, so it reacts to economic fears.
Silver attracts more speculators. Its lower price and big swings draw short-term traders.

Here is how the two metals compare in recent drops:

Period	Silver drop	Gold drop
2026 peak to Sept. 16, 2026	About 48%	About 23%
Sources	https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>Investing News, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco	https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-fed-rate-hike-means-for-gold-silver-prices-september-2026/";>CBS News, https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco

What the Gold-Silver Ratio Says

The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. As of the September 16 market close, the ratio is roughly 68. The gold price was $4,261.80 divided by $62.82.

A high ratio means silver is cheap compared to gold. In April 2025, the ratio was https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/21/gold-silver-ratio-over-103-indicates-silver-is-on-sale-003999";>above 103. Silver then went on a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/25/how-the-gold-silver-ratio-predicted-silvers-surge-004222";>historic run. Today's ratio is much lower, so silver isn't at an extreme bargain compared to gold, even after the drop. Learn more in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>What Is the Gold-Silver Ratio?

The Paradox: Record Supply Deficits, Falling Prices

Here's the puzzle. The world is using more silver than it produces. Yet the price keeps falling. How does that work?

The https://silverinstitute.org/global-silver-investment-to-remain-strong-in-2026-against-the-backdrop-of-a-sixth-consecutive-annual-market-deficit/";>Silver Institute expects a 67 million ounce deficit in 2026. That would be the sixth year in a row of shortfalls.

Three things explain the gap between supply and price:

1. Futures trading dwarfs physical metal. Futures markets play a major role in discovering the spot price. Far more silver trades on paper each day than changes hands as real bars and coins in OTC markets. So in the short run, traders' moves matter more than mine output.

2. There is a stockpile. Years of mining have left silver sitting in vaults all around the world. A yearly deficit draws down that stockpile, but it takes time to run low.

3. Deficits work slowly. A shortage shows up in the price only when stockpiles get tight. Watch for two signs of that. The first is rising lease rates, which is the cost to borrow silver. The second is backwardation. That is when silver for delivery today costs more than silver for delivery later.

The takeaway: a deficit supports silver over years, not weeks. It won't stop a price drop driven by rates and forced selling.

Paper Silver vs. Physical Silver: What Buyers Actually Pay

The silver price you see reported is the spot price. It comes from a constantly fluctuating interplay between the OTC markets and futures markets. But you can't buy a coin at spot. Every physical product costs spot plus a premium. The premium covers minting, shipping, and dealer costs.

During a sharp drop, premiums often hold steady or even rise. That's because many buyers see a sale and rush in, while mints and wholesalers can't ramp up supply overnight.

Tips for buying during a drop:

Compare the premium, not just the price. A low spot price means little if the premium is high.
Know the buyback spread. That is the gap between what you pay and what a dealer will pay you back. Smaller is better.
Choose the right product. Generic https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/rounds";>silver rounds and larger https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars";>silver bars often cost less over spot than government coins like the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>American Silver Eagle.

How Past Silver Crashes Played Out

Silver has crashed many times before. History shows two things. Drops can be brutal, and recovery times vary a lot.

Crash	Peak	Low	Drop	Time to regain peak
1980 (Hunt Brothers)	$49.45 (Jan. 1980)	$10.80 (Mar. 1980)	About 78%	About 45 years (Oct. 2025)
2008 (financial crisis)	$20.64 (Mar. 2008)	$8.94 (Oct. 2008)	About 57%	About 2.5 years
2011 to 2015 (QE peak)	$48.46 (Apr. 2011)	$13.74 (2015)	About 72%	About 14 years (Oct. 2025)
2020 (COVID-19)	About $18.90 (Feb. 2020)	$12.12 (Mar. 2020)	About 36%	About 4 months
2026 (so far)	$121.62 (Jan. 2026)	$57.43 (June 24, 2026)	About 53%	Not yet

Sources: 1980 peak from https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price-history";>Money Metals silver price history; 1980 low from https://metalcharts.org/silver-price-history";>MetalCharts; 2008, 2011, 2015, and 2020 figures from https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/silver-prices/20-year/";>JM Bullion; 2026 figures from https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>Investing News and https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>Kitco. Recovery times are estimates.

What history teaches:

Crashes driven by panic can recover fast. The 2020 crash was a liquidity panic. Silver bounced back within months.
Crashes driven by rising rates can last years. After 2011, the Fed moved toward tighter policy and the dollar rose. Silver took years to find a bottom.
2026 has features of both. The January crash was a forced-selling panic. The drop since then has been driven by rate hikes. That second part looks more like 2011 to 2015 than 2020.

No one can promise when silver will recover. Anyone who gives you an exact date is guessing.

Is Silver Going to Keep Going Down? Signs a Bottom May Be Forming

No single signal can call a bottom. But when several of these line up, a turn becomes more likely.

Signal	What it means	Where to check
Large speculators cut their bets to low levels	Most forced sellers are already out	https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm";>CFTC Commitments of Traders report
Silver ETF holdings stop falling	Investors are done exiting	https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund";>iShares SLV holdings
Gold-silver ratio climbs toward 90 or higher	Silver is cheap compared to gold	https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-charts";>Money Metals charts
Premiums and retail demand rise while spot stays weak	Physical buyers see value	Dealer premium pages
Real yields peak and start to fall	The main headwind is fading	https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10";>FRED 10-year TIPS yield
The Fed signals it is done hiking	Rate pressure is ending	Fed statements and dot plot
Exchange margins stop rising	Forced selling is easing	https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.margins.html";>CME silver margins

As of mid-September 2026, the Fed signal points the wrong way. Most officials still expect https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>another hike this year.

Three Scenarios for Silver From Here

Scenario 1: Silver keeps falling. This could happen if inflation stays high and the Fed hikes again. A recession that cuts factory demand would add pressure. So would more doubts about AI spending.

Scenario 2: Silver moves sideways. The Fed may hike once more and then pause. Silver could trade in a range for a while. Forced sellers would finish exiting, and the deficit would slowly tighten supply.

Scenario 3: Silver recovers. A clear signal that the Fed is done, a weaker dollar, or a geopolitical shock could spark a rebound. Tight physical supply could then add fuel.

For outside views, big banks publish regular forecasts. See https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/silver-prices";>J.P. Morgan's silver outlook for one example. Treat any forecast as a guess, not a promise.

Should You Buy Silver When the Price Is Falling?

That depends on your goals and how long you plan to hold. Silver is a long-term store of value for many people. It isn't a quick trade for most.

A few approaches can help:

Dollar-cost averaging. Buy a set dollar amount on a regular schedule. You buy more ounces when prices are low and fewer when they are high. You don't have to guess the bottom. Our https://www.moneymetals.com/precious-metals-investing/gold-silver-savings";>monthly precious metals program makes this automatic.
Buying in stages. Split your planned purchase into three or four parts. Buy one part now and the rest over the coming months.
Holding for retirement. Some investors add silver to a https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/iras";>precious metals IRA.

Common mistakes to avoid:

Using borrowed money. Leverage is what turned the 2026 drop into a crash.
Panic selling. Selling after a big drop locks in losses.
Overpaying on premiums. Compare total cost per ounce.
Reacting to headlines. One Fed meeting doesn't set the long-term price.

New to silver? Start with our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/buying-silver-for-beginners";>buying silver for beginners or read https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-silver";>Is Now a Good Time to Buy Silver?

This article is for education only. It is not financial advice. Talk with a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Silver's daily moves are mostly driven by interest rate news, the U.S. dollar, and futures trading. In mid-September 2026, silver fell after the Fed https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-09-16/gold-silver-prices-fall-warsh-signals-more-tightening-ahead-kitco-pm-report";>raised rates and signaled more hikes. Check the https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>live silver price for today's move.

Silver has recovered from every major past crash. But the timing has ranged from months to decades. The 2020 crash recovered in about four months. The 2011 peak took about 14 years to reclaim. A pause in Fed rate hikes would likely be the first sign of a lasting rebound.

No one can time the bottom. Many long-term buyers use dollar-cost averaging to spread purchases out over time. Silver is about 48% below its January 2026 record, which some buyers see as a chance to add ounces. Read our full guide: https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-silver";>Is Now a Good Time to Buy Silver?

Big one-day drops usually come from forced selling in futures markets. When exchanges raise margin rules, traders who can't add cash must sell. After silver hit its record in January 2026, it fell to https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>around $71 within days as leveraged traders were pushed out.

It's possible over the long term, but no one knows. Silver would need to rise more than three times from today’s price. It has never traded above https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/silver-investing/what-was-the-highest-price-for-silver/";>$121.62. A move to $200 would likely need falling real rates, a weaker dollar, and tight physical supply all at once.

Many silver investors believe large traders influence prices through futures markets. What is clear is that futures trading and leverage can push prices away from real supply and demand. That effect is strongest in the short run. Over the long run, supply and demand still matter.

The Bottom Line

Silver is down about 48% from its January 2026 record. Rising rates, a firm dollar, and forced selling are the main causes.
Silver falls harder than gold because it is a smaller market tied to industry and speculation.
History shows silver recovers, but not on a schedule. Watch the Fed, real yields, and futures positioning for signs of a turn.

Ready to take advantage of lower prices? https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>Check today's silver price, then https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver";>shop low-premium silver bullion.

Who Sets the Silver Price - How the Daily LBMA Silver Price Auction Works - Auction Participants, Silver Fix History, and Spot Price Differences - Money Metals

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Quick answer: No single entity sets the price of silver. The official world benchmark comes from one online auction held each day at 12:00 London time. https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) runs the auction.

The https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-silver-price";>London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) owns the benchmark. Fourteen banks and trading firms place the orders. The last LBMA Silver Price was $67.035 per ounce on September 18, 2026.

The LBMA Silver Price is a once-daily benchmark, not a price that controls silver trading throughout the day. Silver price discovery continues around the clock through futures, over-the-counter (OTC), and physical markets, where buyers and sellers continuously transact at changing prices.

You can follow the live market on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price chart.

The auction is not the whole story. The silver price you see on dealer sites moves all day, even after the London noon auction ends.

We will explore both factors that play into the spot price discovery. You will learn who takes part in the auction and how each round works. You will also see what happened to the old “silver fix.” And you will learn what a UK regulator found when it tested the auction.

Who Sets the Silver Price?

Four groups share the job. Each one has a clear role.

Role	Who	What they do
Administrator	ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA)	Runs the auction platform and publishes the price
Owner	London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)	Owns the rights to the name and the benchmark
Direct participants	14 banks and trading firms	Place buy and sell orders in each round
Indirect participants	Clients of the direct participants	Place their own orders through a direct participant

The LBMA says it plainly: IBA “independently administers the price and provides the auction platform,” while the LBMA owns the https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-silver-price";>intellectual property rights.

Clients can also take part in this. ICE calls them indirect participants. They manage their own orders on the ICE platform.

After the auction, each client settles its trade with its direct participant (https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>ICE). So when people ask who sets the silver price, the honest answer is this: a group of firms, making buy and sell offers in real time, in a public auction with written rules.

The Firms in the Auction Room

As of September 22, 2026, ICE lists 14 direct participants in the https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>LBMA Silver Price auction:

Citibank, N.A. London Branch
Coins ’N Things Inc.
DRW Investments, LLC
Goldman Sachs
HSBC Bank USA NA
Jane Street Global Trading, LLC
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. London Branch
Koch Supply and Trading LP
Marex
Morgan Stanley
Standard Chartered Bank
StoneX Financial Ltd
Toronto-Dominion Bank
Virtu Financial Global Markets, LLC

Many readers expect a short list of big banking institutions. That’s not entirely wrong; there are big banks on this list. However, there are also trading firms like Jane Street, DRW, and Virtu. So are Koch Supply and Trading and Coins ’N Things.

The list also isn’t permanent. The LBMA’s own page lists https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-silver-price";>thirteen participants as of this writing. It’s best to check the ICE page for the current count.

Joining is not open to everyone. ICE says a direct participant must meet several tests.

These include LBMA membership and the ability to settle silver held in London. A firm must also be able to clear trades through ICE’s daily silver futures contract (https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>ICE).

How the Noon Auction Works, Step by Step

The auction follows the same steps every London business day.

The auction opens at 12:00 London time. IBA posts a starting price. The LBMA says this price is “likely to be close to the spot price” (https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-silver-price/lbma-silver-price-faq";>LBMA FAQ).
Firms enter orders. Each firm enters how much it wants to buy or sell at that price. Orders are placed in “lakhs.” One lakh equals 100,000 troy ounces (https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/IBA_Silver_Auction_Specification.pdf";>IBA specification).
Each round lasts 30 seconds. Firms can enter, change, or cancel orders during the round (https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>ICE).
IBA checks the balance. If buy and sell orders differ by more than 5 lakhs (500,000 ounces), the price moves. Then a new round starts. IBA can raise this limit to 10 lakhs in unusual cases (https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/IBA_Silver_Auction_Specification.pdf";>IBA specification).
The price is set. Once the gap falls inside the limit, the auction ends. Any gap left over “is shared equally between all direct participants (even if they did not place orders or did not log in)” (https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>ICE).
The price is published in U.S. dollars. The price is quoted in dollars per troy ounce of silver that is 99.9% pure (https://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/the-otc-guide/precious-metal-benchmarks";>LBMA OTC Guide). Prices in pounds and euros are conversions. The auction itself settles only in dollars (https://www.ice.com/iba/lbma-gold-silver-price";>ICE).

Most days, this whole process only takes a few rounds before it reaches completion. The basic principle at play is straightforward. The price continues moving until the amount of silver that firms want to buy is close to the amount they want to sell.

A note on older sources: the LBMA’s FAQ still lists a limit of https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/lbma-silver-price/lbma-silver-price-faq";>3 lakhs. IBA’s January 2026 auction rules list 5 lakhs. IBA runs the auction, so its figure is the one that counts.

What Time Is the Silver Price Set in U.S. Time?

The auction starts at noon, London time. For most of the year, that is 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time. There is a catch. The U.S. and the U.K. change their clocks on different days.

The U.S. moves its clocks on the second Sunday of March and the first Sunday of November. The U.K. moves its clocks on the last Sunday of March and October (https://www.timeanddate.com/time/dst/";>timeanddate.com). That leaves a gap of a few weeks. During that time, the auction starts at 8:00 a.m. Eastern.

Some sites give one fixed U.S. time all year. That figure will be wrong a few weeks each spring and fall.

From the London Silver Fix to the LBMA Silver Price: Three Eras

Many people still call the benchmark “the silver fix” or “the London fix.” That name comes from the system that ran for more than a century. It ended in 2014.

Era	Who ran it	How it worked	Why it ended
1897 to August 14, 2014	The London silver fixing banks (last three: Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Scotiabank)	A private daily phone call at noon	The fixing company shut it down amid a regulatory push to reform benchmarks
August 15, 2014 to October 1, 2017	CME Group (auction platform) and Thomson Reuters (administration)	An electronic auction	The LBMA moved the job to IBA
October 2, 2017 to today	ICE Benchmark Administration	An electronic auction on the ICE platform	Still in use

The old fix (1897 to 2014). The LBMA says the silver fixing had been “in existence since 1897” (https://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/the-otc-guide/precious-metal-benchmarks";>LBMA OTC Guide). By 2014, just three banks ran it: Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Scotiabank. They set the price “by way of a daily conference call” (https://www.mining.com/cmethomson-reuters-win-race-to-replace-london-silver-fix-74918/";>Mining.com). In May 2014, the company that ran the fix said it would https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-05-14/silver-fixing-company-will-stop-running-benchmark-on-aug-14";>stop on August 14.

Regulators had been taking a hard look at benchmarks after the LIBOR rate-rigging scandal (https://www.mining.com/cmethomson-reuters-win-race-to-replace-london-silver-fix-74918/";>Mining.com). We covered the shift at the time in “https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2014/07/07/goldsilver-manipulation-proof-sends-banks-scrambling-000574";>London Bullion Market Association Seeks to Fix Silver Manipulation.”

The CME and Thomson Reuters years (2014 to 2017). In July 2014, the LBMA chose a joint bid. CME Group would run the auction platform. Thomson Reuters would handle administration (https://www.mining.com/cmethomson-reuters-win-race-to-replace-london-silver-fix-74918/";>Mining.com). On August 15, 2014, the old fix “was replaced by the LBMA Silver Price” (https://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/the-otc-guide/precious-metal-benchmarks";>LBMA). The benchmark came under UK regulation in April 2015 (https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/research/research-note-representativeness-lbma-silver-price";>FCA).

The IBA era (2017 to today). In July 2017, the LBMA said IBA would take over (https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/ice-benchmark-administration-to-become-administrator-for-the-lbma-silver-price";>LBMA). A filing with the SEC gives the exact date: “Effective from October 2, 2017, IBA will take over the administration of the LBMA Silver Price and operation of the underlying auction” (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1450922/000145092217000026/sivr-20171002x10q.htm";>SEC filing, ETFS Silver Trust). IBA also runs the https://www.moneymetals.com/price/who-sets-the-gold-price";>LBMA Gold Price.

Is There Still a Silver Fix?

No. The London silver fix ended on August 14, 2014. The LBMA Silver Price replaced it the next day. People still say “silver fix” out of habit. When they do, they almost always mean today’s LBMA Silver Price.

LBMA Silver Price vs. the Spot Price You See Online

The LBMA Silver Price and the silver spot price are not the same thing.

The LBMA Silver Price is set once a day. It is a fixed reference point. The spot price you see on dealer sites changes every few seconds.

The spot price tracks live trading around the world, and it is led by the futures market. The COMEX allows near 24-hour electronic trading, which is why the spot price continues moving long after London’s auction ends. You can read more about this process in our https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/what-is-the-comex";>guide to the COMEX.

Our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-spot-price-vs-futures";>spot vs. futures prices explains how the two stay linked.

	LBMA Silver Price	Silver spot price	Kitco Fix
Who publishes it	IBA, for the LBMA	Dealers and data firms, based on live trading	Kitco Metals
How often	Once each London business day, at noon	Nearly 24 hours a day on trading days	Once a day, around 10:30 a.m.
How it is made	Live auction with real orders	Live futures and cash market trades	Calculated from over-the-counter cash market data
Main use	Contracts, fund values, and settlements	Pricing coins and bars you buy and sell	A free daily reference for Kitco users

What the LBMA price is used for. The LBMA says its price is a global reference for industrial contracts and for some forward and option trades (https://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/the-otc-guide/precious-metal-benchmarks";>LBMA OTC Guide). Some silver funds use it to value their metal each day. One example is the ETFS Silver Trust, which values its silver using the LBMA Silver Price (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1450922/000145092217000026/sivr-20171002x10q.htm";>SEC filing).

What the Kitco Fix is. Some search results show a “Kitco Fix” as the silver fix. That is a different benchmark. Kitco says its fix is calculated from the over-the-counter cash market and is released “every day around 10:30 am” (https://www.kitco.com/price/fixes/kitco-fix";>Kitco). It is not the LBMA Silver Price.

What this means when you buy silver. You can compare today’s spot price on our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver price page.

Does the Auction Reflect the Real Market? What the Regulator Found

Skeptics ask a fair question. Does a daily auction among only 14 firms really reflect the silver market?

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) tested this very question. In October 2018, it published a https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/research/research-note-on-the-representativeness-of-the-lbma-silver-auction.pdf";>research note on the LBMA Silver Price. The study examined 139 auctions and 321 rounds from March to September 2017. These were their findings:

Rounds: The median auction took 2 rounds.
Participants: A median of 6 banks placed orders.
Price gaps: The FCA measured how far the auction price sat from the market price. The median of all 321 gaps was zero.
Order size: The median buy order total was 7.27 lakhs. The median sell order total was 10.65 lakhs.

The FCA’s conclusion: price gaps “did not systematically compromise the representativeness of the LBMA Silver Price benchmark.”

There are limits to this finding. The study covered only seven months, and it also came after the move to an electronic, regulated auction. The FCA noted that it could not compare the new system with the old one (https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/research/research-note-representativeness-lbma-silver-price";>FCA).

What About Silver Price Manipulation?

Many silver investors worry that big banks, or even the federal government, intentionally manipulate the price of silver. Regulators and courts have taken action in several cases.

In 2016, Deutsche Bank agreed to pay $38 million to settle a U.S. lawsuit over the old silver fix (https://fortune.com/2016/10/18/deutsche-bank-38-million-silver-price-fixing-case";>Fortune). In 2020, JPMorgan agreed to pay a record $920 million to U.S. regulators. The CFTC said its traders placed “hundreds of thousands of orders” in gold, silver, and other futures that they planned to cancel (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8260-20";>CFTC).

Please note that the CFTC case involved the futures market, not the London auction. The auction has its own history of reform. The 2014 move to a regulated, electronic auction was meant to fix the flaws of the old phone call.

If you’re interested in more details about this controversial topic, we cover it in depth in our guide to silver price manipulation.

Frequently Asked Questions

The benchmark silver price is set in a daily auction at 12:00 pm London time. During that auction, fourteen financial institutions ranging from banks to trading firms enter buy and sell orders in 30-second rounds. The price continues moving until buying and selling are close to even. When you track the live spot price online, what you are seeing is a continual, all-day interplay between futures and cash market trading.

LBMA stands for London Bullion Market Association. The LBMA Silver Price is a widely used, global, daily benchmark for silver price. It takes place in a noon London auction and sets the price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. ICE Benchmark Administration runs the auction, and the LBMA owns the benchmark.

The LBMA Silver Price is set at noon, London time, on each London business day. For most of the year, that is 7:00 a.m. Eastern. During the period when U.S. and U.K. clocks do not align, the auction happens at 8:00 a.m. Eastern.

No. The London silver fix ran from 1897 until August 14, 2014. The LBMA Silver Price replaced it on August 15, 2014. However, many people still use the term “silver fix” to refer to the LBMA Silver Price.

As of September 22, 2026, ICE lists 14 direct participants. They include large banks such as Citibank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and JPMorgan. They also include trading firms such as Jane Street, DRW, Virtu, Koch, StoneX, and Marex. The list changes, so check ICE for the current names.

No. The LBMA Silver Price is set once a day in a London auction. The spot price changes all day with live trading. Dealers price coins and bars from the spot price, plus a premium. The two prices are usually close, but they are rarely identical.

The Bottom Line

No one person or entity sets the silver price. The world’s main benchmark comes from a public, rules-based auction held each day at noon in London. IBA runs it. The LBMA owns it.

Fourteen firms trade in it. A UK regulator tested it and found no pattern of bias in the period it studied.

The price you pay for physical silver follows the live spot price, plus a premium. To see where silver trades right now, visit our https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>live silver price chart. When you are ready, you can https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver";>buy silver coins, bars, and rounds from Money Metals at low premiums.

This article is for education only. It is not investment advice.

Back to the Futures! What's Going On With Silver at the COMEX?

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Something unusual happened at the COMEX last week. A large amount of silver left the CME vaults.

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the numbers. He explains exactly what happened and the ramifications, highlighting the silver market's tight supply.

This week, Mike also engaged in some myth-busting, explaining why higher interest rates aren't necessarily bearish for gold and silver.

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Mike opens the show with a trip down memory lane.

"It was December 1930, early in the Great Depression. The Bank of the United States in New York was in deep trouble. Despite implications you might draw from the name, the Bank of the United States was a private institution serving a large number of immigrant families and small businesses.

"As confidence in the institution crumbled and negotiations for a rescue merger failed, depositors rushed to withdraw their savings. On December 11, state banking authorities closed the bank. With more than 400,000 depositors, it was the largest U.S. bank failure up to that point measured by deposits.

"As Time reported, the run followed weeks of quiet withdrawals, months of rumors, and failed merger efforts."

Mike notes that panics are a feature in a fractional reserve banking system because everybody knows all of the money they depositied isn't there. Banks are only required to hold a portion of customer deposits as a reserve. The rest can be loaned out.

"We can debate the pros and cons of such a system, but regardless of your position, you have to admit that it comes with inherent risks."

Then Mike drops the bombshell.

"Did you know we have basically the same kind of system in the silver futures market?"

Mike explains that a futures contract promises the delivery of a certain amount of silver at a certain price at a certain time.

"Most of the time, futures traders don’t take physical delivery of the metal. They just roll over the contract. As a result, there is a lot more paper than there is metal. Like our fractional reserve banking example, it’s all well and good until a lot of people suddenly want their metal."

Mike notes that it's unclear exactly how many paper claims exist for every ounce of silver. We often see numbers as high as 250:1.

"I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s true, but I’ve not been able to find verifiable data to back this up. What I did find is that mid-September, there was a little over five paper ounces of silver circulating for every ounce of registered physical silver in COMEX vaults. You can see the problem. If even half of those holding contracts demanded physical delivery, the COMEX would devolve into meltdown mode."

Mike parses the data, revealing that over 7 million ounces of silver flowed out of the COMEX system between Sept. 10 and Sept. 17.

"For perspective, the 7.2-million-ounce silver outflow equals about 223 tonnes, roughly 2.1 percent of the total COMEX inventory. This doesn’t indicate a looming silver shortage, but it is a notable metal outflow. It could become significant if physical deliveries become a trend."

Mike proceeds to explain how the COMEX futures market operates, distinguising between registered silver, eligible silver, and total physical inventory, providing context for the silver drawdown. He also points out that the amount of silver leaving the COMEX last week was 25 percent higher than during the first week of the October silver squeeze, but about half the outflow of the peak week.

"However, it’s important to note that unlike during the October squeeze, registered inventories (silver available for delivery) increased last week. The squeeze drained nearly 14.2 million ounces from the registered category. In other words, last week’s movement signals strong physical withdrawals from COMEX vaults. However, it is not putting the same pressure on COMEX’s deliverable supply as we saw in October because plenty of registered metal remains.

"Looking at the big picture, last week’s drawdown does not indicate an imminent shortage of physical metal. It could be a one-off event. However, if this level of silver outflow becomes a trend, it could lead to another silver squeeze."

Mike then puts the futures activity in context with supply and demand dynamics and the broader silver markets, noting that demand has outstripped supply for five straight years, with another market deficit forecast for 2026.

"When the market runs a supply deficit, people who need metal have to source it from existing above-ground stocks. That generally requires higher prices to incentivize those who hold it to release it."

Mike notes that the drawdown in above-ground silver supply of around 473 million ounces over the last 15 years.

"All of this to say that the supply-demand dynamics are extremely bullish for silver, and the tightness in the physical market means there is always the underlying chance for another squeeze. It just takes the right confluence of dynamics to light the fuse."

Mike also argues that silver is underpriced right now, creating a buying opportunity for investors. He highlights some Money Metals https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/specials";>specials for folks interested in taking advantage of "silver on sale."

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Mike wraps up the show with a little myth-busting.

"Conventional wisdom holds that because they are non-yielding assets, gold and silver become less attractive in a high-interest-rate environment and tend to face significant price headwinds. However, conventional wisdom isn’t always wise. A higher-rate environment can indeed be bearish for gold and silver, but historically, that hasn’t always been the case."

Mike points out that there are many parallels between the 1970s and today, with stagflation, high inflation, and rising interest rates, and uses data from the era to show how interest rates and the gold price rose in tandem.

"So, conventional wisdom clearly broke down in the 1970s. A high interest rate environment was not bearish for gold. Interest rates and gold rose in tandem.

"But why?

"Because you must account for real interest rates."

Mike explains real rates and how to calculate them. He then uses data Adam Sharp parsed to show that real rates were low in the 70s due to persistently elevated inflation.

So, yes, nominal rates are going up. But so is inflation. That means real rates aren't nearly as high as they seem if you're listening to talking heads on TV.

"The lesson here is don’t sell your gold just because you think the Fed is going to raise rates. You might be sorry!"

Mike closes the show with a call to action, urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned in the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/14/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-august-2026-005198";>Beyond the CPI: The Complete Inflation Story -- August 2026

https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">The CME’s delivery notice and warehouse report

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-price-vs-10-year-treasury-yield-1969-1980.png"; width="700" height="409" class="mx-auto float-left p-3" alt="" />

Gold Demand - Jewelry, Investment, Central Bank, and Technology Buyers by Sector - Price-Setting vs. Price-Following Demand, Recycling Supply, and Retail Premiums - Money Metals

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The world bought more than 5,000 tonnes of gold in 2025, a record haul worth roughly $555 billion (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>World Gold Council). Those figures get quoted quite often online, but on their own they explain very little about the gold market.

There is a more helpful question instead: who bought that gold? You can also go one step further: did those buyers care what it cost?

Some sources of gold demand retreat when prices climb. Others can accelerate into rising prices. That distinction explains most of what confuses people in the headlines, including how the gold price can set records in the same quarter that total tonnage falls.

This page will break down all four sources of gold demand. We will also explore the supply that meets them, and what global demand actually means when you go to buy a coin or a bar yourself.

Key Takeaways

Total gold demand reached 5,002.3 tonnes in 2025, the first year ever above 5,000 tonnes (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC)
Four sectors buy gold: jewelry, investment, central banks, and technology
Jewelry remains the largest sector by weight, but it contracts sharply when prices rise
Central banks and investors can continue buying as prices rise, making their demand more likely to drive price moves than price-sensitive jewelry demand
Mining supplies roughly 3,670 tonnes annually, and recycled scrap contributes another 1,400 tonnes
Demand data explains the past well, but it does not predict the gold price on its own

How Much Gold Does the World Buy Each Year?

Total gold demand came to 5,002.3 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 1% over the prior year. The value of that gold reached $555 billion, a 45% jump, because the average price climbed 44% to $3,431.50 per ounce (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC).

There is a gap between weight and value, and it matters a great deal. The reason for this is that demand sometimes looks flat when it is measured in tonnes. However, when you measure it in dollars, it can set records. That's why it's important to look into what metric a writer used when they write that gold demand hit an all-time high. The answer could make a substantive difference.

The Two Totals You Will See Quoted

Here is the detail that trips up most readers, including plenty of financial journalists. The World Gold Council publishes two different totals for gold demand. Crucially, these are not interchangeable.

One total excludes over-the-counter trading and the other includes it. Over-the-counter transactions, often shortened to OTC, refers to gold traded directly between large institutions instead of an exchange.

The two totals diverged dramatically in the second quarter of 2026. Demand excluding OTC came to 941.8 tonnes, a decline of 14% from a year earlier, while demand including OTC came to 1,268.9 tonnes, essentially unchanged year over year (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>WGC).

This is where many people get confused. These figures come from the same quarter and same source. Nevertheless, one figure suggests decline, and one suggests stasis. That is because of differences in how the figures were measured.

Use the number that excludes OTC when comparing the four consumer and investor sources against each other. Use the number that includes OTC when you want the fullest picture of gold moving through the global market. If you read two pieces from relatively recent times that seem to contradict each other about gold demand, the discrepancy about OTC is usually the reason.

Gold Demand by Sector

Sector	Q2 2026 (tonnes)	Change vs. Q2 2025
Jewelry	278.2	-17%
Central banks	288.9	+62%
Total investment	262.2	-46%
Bar and coin	307.1	-3%
Gold ETFs	-44.8	Outflow, versus +171.1 a year earlier
Technology	80.4	+2%

Source: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026. Bar and coin demand and ETF flows are the two components of total investment, which is why total investment can collapse while bar and coin demand holds steady.

Gold demand by sector, Q2 2026. Bar and coin demand and ETF flows together make up total investment (262.2 t, down 46%), which is why investment fell even as bar and coin buying held steady. Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026.

Why Do People Buy Gold, and What Drives Gold Demand?

Central Bank Demand

The central banks of several nations have purchased gold for their national reserves, with China leading the charge. Central banks accumulated 863.3 tonnes of gold in 2025. That was 21% below the prior year's pace, though it remained far above anything considered normal before 2022 (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC).

Official sector buying then picked up again. In the second quarter of 2026, central bank gold buying reached 288.9 tonnes. That represents a 62% jump over the same quarter a year earlier (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>WGC).

Central banks buy gold according to policy timelines, not price charts or sudden market shifts. When central banks decide to buy more gold, they tend to do so based on a specific buying plan. While they may adjust the strategy if significant changes occur in the gold price, they are generally far less price-sensitive than private investors.

We cover the reasons behind this shift in detail on our page about https://www.moneymetals.com/investment/central-banks-buying-gold";>central banks buying gold, and we track the monthly totals in our https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/02/01/central-bank-gold-buying-moderated-in-25-but-remained-well-above-historical-levels-004653";>ongoing news coverage.

Investment Demand

Investment demand combines two groups that behave very differently. One buys physical metal, and the other buys fund shares.

Bar and coin demand represents physical gold purchased by individuals, and it reached 1,374.1 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 16% (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC). This is the most durable category of investment demand, and it is the one Money Metals serves every day.

Gold ETFs are exchange-traded funds that hold bullion and trade like stocks. While they can certainly be worthwhile investments, their flows swing far more violently. These funds absorbed 801.2 tonnes in 2025 after a slightly negative 2024, then reversed and shed 44.8 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026 (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>WGC).

That reversal is why total investment demand dropped 46% in the quarter. At the same time, however, bar and coin demand only dropped by 3%. Institutional fund money exited. Simultaneously, physical buyers largely stayed where they were.

Jewelry Demand

Jewelry remains the single largest use of gold by weight, with consumers taking 1,542.3 tonnes in 2025, although that represented an 18% decline from the prior year (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC). The contraction continued into 2026, with jewelry demand falling another 17% in the second quarter (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>WGC).

Much of that demand comes from India and China. Gold jewelry demand in India and China has strong seasonal patterns. Indian wedding season and festivals such as Diwali lift demand in the autumn. Chinese New Year lifts the demand again earlier in the year.

Jewelry buyers are usually shopping against a budget. When gold costs more per gram, they buy a lighter chain or postpone the purchase entirely. Falling jewelry demand is therefore not a warning signal about gold. It is a straightforward price response.

Technology and Industrial Demand

Technology is the smallest of the four sectors, consuming 322.8 tonnes in 2025 and 80.4 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026 (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>WGC).

Gold conducts electricity very well and resists corrosion. That is why it turns up in connectors, circuit boards, and sensors, plus a range of medical and dental uses. The sector is small, but it has been holding up while jewelry contracts, helped by demand for hardware tied to artificial intelligence.

Makers cannot easily extricate gold from finished circuit boards. As a result, industrial use for gold tends to remain consistent even with high market prices.

Price-Setting Demand vs. Price-Following Demand

Most articles hand you a pie chart with four slices and stop there. That hides the most important fact about gold demand: the slices are not equal in how they influence the price.

A better way to divide them is to ask a single question. Which buyers purchase less when gold gets expensive, and which ones purchase more?

Demand That Follows the Price

Jewelry and technology both tighten their usage when gold prices rise. That pattern shows in some of the figures cited above.

For example, notice that in 2025, gold's average price climbed 44%. At the same time, jewelry demand fell 18% across the same twelve months.

This is ordinary shopper behavior: prices rise, purchases fall. That does not mean anything has changed in the gold market. It simply means that a buyer working from a fixed budget ends up with less metal when metal costs more. These sectors react to the price, they do not establish it.

Demand That Sets the Price

Central banks and investors behave in the opposite direction. Investment demand surged 84% in 2025 to 2,175.3 tonnes during the very stretch when prices rose 44%, meaning higher prices attracted buyers rather than deterring them (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC).

Central banks are not price shoppers either, because they accumulate according to reserve strategies that unfold over years.

This distinction is the key to reading gold headlines correctly. When total demand falls while prices set records, you are watching two things at once. Price-sensitive buyers step back just as price-insensitive buyers step forward. The total can decline even as the buyers who really move the market turn more aggressive.

For anyone actually buying gold, that makes the headline total the least informative figure in the entire report. Watch the central bank line and the bar and coin line instead.

Where Gold Supply Comes From

Demand figures do not mean much without the supply they compete for. Gold reaches the market from two sources: newly mined production and recycled scrap metal.

Mine Production

Mines produced 3,671.6 tonnes in 2025, up just 1%. Output has stayed near flat for years (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC).

The trouble with gold mining is that it cannot respond quickly to price signals. Mining operations can take a decade or more to discover gold ore, permit for a mine, and develop a mine production. The gold that comes from mining production then takes time to refine and enter the market.

In short, the process cannot keep up with temporary spikes or dips in demand. A high gold price today produces no additional metal this year, and probably none next year either.

Recycling, the Flexible Valve

Recycled gold is the part of supply that does move fast, and it reached 1,404.3 tonnes in 2025, up 3% (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC).

Recycling functions as a pressure valve on the market. Rising prices often convince households and businesses to sell their old jewelry or scrap metal to get a piece of the gold price. Those decisions can add supply at the moment demand runs hottest. The extra metal helps to absorb part of the buying pressure.

That mechanism is one important reason a surge in demand does not automatically produce a matching surge in price.

The Supply and Demand Balance

Full year 2025	Tonnes
Mine production	3,671.6
Recycled gold	1,404.3
Total supply	5,002.3
Total demand (including OTC)	5,002.3

Source: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>World Gold Council. Supply and demand match by definition in this accounting, since every ounce sold is an ounce purchased, and the price is the variable that adjusts to bring them together.

Why Gold Is Not Like Oil or Wheat

Gold is never used up the way other commodities are. Nearly every ounce ever mined still exists somewhere in the world.

Roughly 222,600 tonnes of gold have been mined across all of human history, worth about $29 trillion as of mid-2026. Jewelry accounts for about 99,700 tonnes of that stock, private investors hold around 51,800 tonnes in bars, coins, and ETFs, and central banks hold about 39,000 tonnes (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/above-ground-stocks";>WGC).

Measure that stockpile against the roughly 3,670 tonnes mined annually. New mining adds less than 2% to the global gold supply each year. The real supply is the huge stock already above ground. Any part of it can return to the market at the right price.

Does Rising Gold Demand Mean a Higher Gold Price?

Not directly, and not reliably enough to trade on.

Gold trades in a deep and liquid global market. The price is set at the margin by whoever is buying and selling right now, not by annual tonnage totals. Those totals sum up what already happened rather than a forecast of what comes next.

Three more limits are worth knowing. Demand data looks backward. Then it gets revised after its publication. Large parts of it come from estimates rather than solid counts.

Use demand data to understand the market rather than to time it. For our view on what actually moves the price, see https://www.moneymetals.com/price/why-gold-price-is-going-up";>why the gold price is going up and https://www.moneymetals.com/price/will-the-price-of-gold-go-up";>will the price of gold go up.

What Global Gold Demand Means When You Buy

Global demand data is measured in tonnes, but you do not buy tonnes. You buy a one-ounce coin or a ten-ounce bar, and you pay a https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-premium";>premium over spot to get it.

Here is how a demand surge travels from the global market down to your individual order.

Premiums Widen First

Retail buying spikes hit dealer inventory long before they show up in any quarterly report. When physical demand runs hot, premiums over https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>spot tend to widen.

Those premiums do not widen evenly across the product range. Common bullion products usually hold their premiums best, because more of them exist and more of them change hands. Fractional coins and specialty pieces tighten faster, since each small coin already carries more minting cost per ounce.

Availability and Lead Times

Sovereign mints work on production schedules set far in advance. They cannot double output in a month. During periods of heavy demand, mints have rationed popular coins to their authorized buyers.

Large https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/bars";>gold bars typically remain available the longest, because bar production is far more flexible than government coin production.

Buyback Spreads Move Too

The same pressure works in your favor when you decide to sell. Strong retail demand leaves dealers needing inventory, which firms up buyback bids, while quiet retail demand widens those spreads back out. You can review current pricing any time on our https://www.moneymetals.com/sell-to-us";>sell to us page.

What We See on Our Own Orders

Money Metals has served more than 750,000 customers since 2010. That gives us a direct view of retail demand that no quarterly report captures.

Two patterns recur during demand surges. Low-premium common bullion sells out before premium-priced specialty products, because experienced buyers chase ounces rather than designs. Retail buying also tends to accelerate into rising prices rather than retreat from them, which matches exactly what the global bar and coin figures show.

A Checklist for Buying Into a Demand Spike

Compare the total price per ounce rather than the spot price alone, since premium is the component you can actually control
Favor common, widely traded bullion whenever premiums are elevated across the market
Check the buyback spread before you purchase, not after
Avoid chasing an out-of-stock product when a similar one is in stock at a lower premium
Remember that premium costs you real money entering and exiting the position, while spot timing is largely beyond your control

You can compare current products and premiums any time on our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>gold bullion page.

How to Read the Gold Demand Report Yourself

Almost every gold demand figure you see comes from one place: the World Gold Council's quarterly https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends";>Gold Demand Trends report, compiled with data from Metals Focus. It is free to read.

If you read the report, the first thing to look for is the summary table. It lists each sector in tonnes, next to the same quarter from the prior year and the percent change between them.

Three Common Mistakes

Quoting the wrong total. As explained above, two totals exist. One of these includes OTC, while the other excludes it. Check which metric a writer used before you trust any comparison.

Mixing tonnes and dollars. Demand can decline in tonnes and rise in dollars during the same period. Both statements are accurate, but only because they measure different things.

Treating one quarter as a trend. Gold demand is seasonal and lumpy, and a single large central bank purchase can visibly move a quarterly number. It's important to examine the performance for several quarters before calling anything a trend.

Frequently Asked Questions

Total gold demand reached 5,002.3 tonnes in 2025, the first year it exceeded 5,000 tonnes. That gold was worth about $555 billion at an average price of $3,431.50 per ounce (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC).

Measured by sector, jewelry consumers take the most gold by weight, at 1,542.3 tonnes in 2025. Investment demand was larger that year at 2,175.3 tonnes, but that figure combines physical bars and coins with ETF flows (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025";>WGC). Among individual nations, India and China lead consumer demand.

In 2025, gold demand reports measured in tonnes found that jewelry was roughly 31% of total gold demand. It came in at 1,542.3 tonnes out of 5,002.3 tonnes. Its share has been declining as elevated prices push jewelry consumers back while drawing investors in.

That depends on the sector and the measure. Total demand set a record in 2025, then held flat year over year in the second quarter of 2026 on an OTC-inclusive basis while falling 14% excluding OTC. Within that quarter, central bank buying rose 62% and jewelry demand fell 17% (https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026";>WGC).

Safe-haven demand occurs when investors turn to gold to protect wealth from economic, financial, monetary, or geopolitical risks. It can appear during periods of inflation, currency debasement, banking stress, war, or declining confidence in financial assets.

Safe-haven demand can come from both retail and institutional investors. What defines it is the motivation for buying gold, not the type of buyer.

No, not in any lasting sense. Supply and demand balance each year because every ounce sold is an ounce purchased. The price adjusts in order to make that happen. When buying pressure intensifies, higher prices simply draw more recycled gold into the market.

It has more of an indirect effect on price. Demand from institutions like central banks and investors tends to support gold prices. That is because this demand tends to remain steady, as these buyers buy set amounts each month or year.

Demand from price-sensitive buyers, mainly in jewelry and technology, falls as prices rise and cushions the move. That offsetting balance is why record demand and record prices do not always occur at the same time.

The Short Version

Gold demand is not a single number. It comes from four distinct groups of buyers, and only two of them meaningfully drive the price.

Jewelry and technology buyers retreat when gold becomes expensive, while central banks and investors frequently advance. Watch those two lines, give the headline total far less weight, and always pair a demand figure with the supply that met it.

Physical buyers face one additional layer. Global demand reaches you as a premium over spot and as a question of what is in stock. That part you can control by comparing total cost per ounce before you order.

Money Metals has published gold and silver pricing openly since 2010. You can compare live premiums on our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>gold bullion page or read more about https://www.moneymetals.com/price/gold-premium";>how premiums work.

This article is provided for education and information. It is not investment advice. Precious metals prices fluctuate, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

$10,000 Gold! A Question of When, Not If

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold is on the path toward $10,000 an ounce. It’s not a matter of if, but when.

That’s the view of State Street Investment Management head of gold strategy Aakash Doshi. In an interview with Kitco News, he said investors should be thinking beyond $5,000 gold to $10,000. He sees that milestone as “ultimately a question of timing rather than possibility” in the current global economic environment.

Doshi argued that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>the debasement trade drove gold to record highs earlier this year, and it never went away. It simply went dormant as the Iran war oil price shock created an environment of elevated inflation worries, rising interest rates, and a stronger dollar.

“At State Street, we never thought it was dead; we just thought it was on pause. And now I think it’s alive again.”

!!--Product-Random-Best-2--!!

The debasement trade is an investment strategy that emphasizes holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against monetary debasement.

We see this trade playing out in the struggling Treasury market.

Treasuries have been selling off because many countries are increasingly wary of holding U.S. debt. With https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>the national debt eclipsing $40 trillion and U.S. policymakers giving no hint they intend to address the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>borrowing and spending problem, America’s fiscal situation doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

On top of the fiscal problems, the U.S. has https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/22/us-doubling-down-on-weaponization-of-the-dollar-005224";>weaponized the dollar as a foreign policy tool. This has made some countries even more wary about holding greenbacks.

Doshi said gold holding $4,000 during the correction and later rallying to $4,700 https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/17/hut-hut-hike-the-fed-raised-rates-now-what-005211";>before last week's Fed rate hike strengthened his conviction that the broader gold bull market remains intact despite continued headwinds from the Iran war oil shock.

He also noted an uptick in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/etf-gold-holdings-surged-to-record-high-in-august-005193";>ETF gold inflows in recent weeks as a bullish indicator.

“We started to see inflows rebound aggressively from Western ETF investors. I think there’s plenty of firepower here to go.”

Doshi said State Street’s base-case gold forecast is now $4,700 to $5,000 an ounce by early this winter. A dovish Fed shift or a macroeconomic shock could put $5,000 in play even faster.

While all eyes are glued to the Fed, Doshi said he thinks the sustainability (or lack thereof) of sovereign debt is the bigger issue. And it’s not just a U.S.A. problem. He pointed out that fiscal deterioration and rising long-term borrowing costs are a global problem. The United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and Japan continue running substantial deficits, driving debt higher.

“There is just a concern about the sheer level of debt, the amount of fiscal spending that’s happening during non-recessionary periods.”

Doshi also pointed out an apparent fundamental shift in investor thinking. Historically, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/18/higher-rates-are-bad-for-gold-and-silver-or-are-they-005215";>higher yields have created headwinds for gold – a non-yielding asset. However, investors are starting to look beyond the mere existence of rising yields and question why interest rates keep moving higher.

When yields rise due to strong economic growth and corporate optimism, that bolsters the case against gold. However, when yields rise because investors demand a larger term premium to compensate for inflation in an environment of excessive government borrowing and deteriorating fiscal credibility, “the implications are significantly different.” The argument becomes less about gold’s opportunity cost and more about protecting your purchasing power over time.

“It becomes more, ‘I’m owning gold because of debasement and purchasing power risk and debt monetization risk'," Doshi said.

Doshi noted that while easing yields could give gold an even bigger boost, rapidly rising yields could also become bullish indicators if investors believe they reflect deteriorating confidence in sovereign debt and are accompanied by a weaker U.S. dollar.

“I think right now it’s a little bit of a confidence game. Gold has no creditor, it is a scarce natural resource, and it has history behind it.”

That opens the path to $10,000 gold.

He cautioned that the yellow metal won’t get to that level “in a straight line,” but the long-term direction is clear.

“I do think $10,000 is a question of when, not if.”

De-Dollarization Alert! U.S. Doubling Down on Weaponization of the Dollar

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The U.S. government continues to ratchet up its use of the dollar as a foreign policy tool, even as https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>the weaponization of the dollar has accelerated https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization.

On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to effectively ground Iran’s commercial airlines, saying that on Wednesday, Sept. 23, “All the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world.”

In pursuit of this goal, Bessent warned that any company or country supporting Iranian airlines could face secondary sanctions and be “knocked out” of the dollar system.

“If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system.”

!!--Product-Random-Best-All--!!

Sanctions targeting Iranian domestic airlines are part of broader measures to ratchet up pressure on the Iranian regime and isolate the country from the global financial system. The U.S. has reportedly threatened secondary sanctions on foreign companies that do business with Iran across a wide range of sectors, including energy, shipping, precious metals, crypto, and manufacturing.

Thanks to the dollar’s reserve currency status, the U.S. can back up these threats. Much of the global economy runs on dollars, and governments or companies that cross Washington risk having access to that system restricted or cut off. The U.S. government can exert this pressure by freezing assets under U.S. jurisdiction, limiting dealings with U.S. companies, and restricting foreign banks’ access to U.S. banking accounts.

Under a series of executive orders issued by President George W. Bush after 9/11 and more recently by President Trump, entities supporting sanctioned countries can also be designated as sanctions targets and added to the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s (OFAC) Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List.

Persons or entities on that list can have their property and funds within the U.S. frozen and be blocked from doing business with U.S. individuals or companies. More significantly, foreign banks that service sanctioned entities can face sanctions themselves, including losing access to the U.S. banking system.

The U.S. has another sanction tool in its belt. With Western cooperation, the U.S. can cut off sanctioned entities from SWIFT.

The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system serves as the global economy’s superhighway. In effect, it operates as a global financial messaging service, facilitating cross-border payments. As the SWIFT website puts it, “SWIFT is the way the world moves value.”

Since the dollar serves as the world reserve currency, SWIFT effectively facilitates an international dollar system.

The threat of sanctions incentivizes foreign governments, companies, and banks to drop Iranian business rather than risk much wider financial disruption.

However, the dollar weaponization creates other perverse incentives. It motivates them to limit their exposure to the dollar system. After all, if somebody is threatening to pull a rug out from under you, the smart move is to get the rug out of the room.

Enter de-dollarization.

Many countries have seen the writing on the wall. Not wanting to be under the U.S. government’s thumb, they’ve started taking steps to limit their exposure to the dollar and dollar assets. After all, the U.S. can’t sanction your dollar activities if you don’t have any.

We see this evidence in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-005182";>central bank gold buying.

Central bank gold buying ramped up after Russia invaded Ukraine.

The U.S. and its allies immediately imposed economic sanctions on Russia, and they escalated quickly. Officials initially indicated Russia would not be locked out of SWIFT. A few days later, the United States, the European Union, the UK, and Canada issued a joint statement announcing SWIFT would disconnect “selected” Russian banks from the global payment system.

In the ensuing months, the U.S. and its allies continued to tighten this economic noose.

Meanwhile, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/ecb-confirms-gold-has-overtaken-treasuries-as-top-global-reserve-asset-004959";>gold overtook U.S. Treasuries as the top global reserve asset.

We also see the implications of de-dollarization in the shaky bond market. Demand for U.S. Treasuries has tanked in recent months. Long-term bond yields have risen to levels not seen since 2007. The U.S. has been forced to intervene in the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/treasury-department-announces-even-bigger-bond-buyback-market-shrugs-005192";>bond market to push rates down. (It hasn’t worked.)

!!--Product-Random-Hot-All--!!

One could certainly argue that sanctions are a necessary foreign policy tool. However, as with any policy, it’s important to count the cost and anticipate potential blowback.

De-dollarization potentially creates economic problems for the U.S. that are every bit as bad as the consequences facing sanctioned countries.

Simply put, the United States depends on the global demand to underpin its bloated government. De-dollarization threatens an inflation tsunami as those unwanted dollars make their way back to the U.S.

The dollar’s role as the world's reserve currency is the only reason the U.S. can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent it does. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies.

But what happens if that demand drops?

A de-dollarization of the world economy could cause a dollar glut. The U.S. currency could further depreciate. At the extreme, global de-dollarization could spark a currency crisis. You and I would feel the impact through higher price inflation, eating away at the dollar's purchasing power. In the worst-case scenario, it could lead to hyperinflation.

President Trump and his Treasury secretary are playing with fire. They’d best be careful lest they get burned.

Capped Bust Half Dollar - Lettered Edge vs. Reeded Edge Halves From 1807 to 1839 - 1815 Low Mintage, 1817/4 Overdate, 1838-O, and Overton Die Varieties - Money Metals

Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

The Capped Bust half dollar is one of the https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins";>most popular silver coins from early American history. This series ran from 1807 to 1839. At that time, half dollars were a staple of everyday commerce across the growing nation.

The coin was designed by John Reich. It gets its name from the coin’s obverse, which depicts Lady Liberty wearing a soft cap on the front and a heraldic eagle on the back.

Today, collectors value Capped Bust half dollars for their history, silver content, and classic design. Many also enjoy building complete date sets or searching for rare die varieties. Because the series spans more than 30 years, there are several affordable and highly valuable coins for collectors to choose from.

A Capped Bust half dollar’s value depends on several factors. The date, condition, rarity, and eye appeal all affect its price. Original, well-preserved coins often sell for much more than cleaned or damaged examples. This guide explains the history of the series, how to grade these coins, and what they are worth today.

Quick Facts about the Capped Bust Half Dollar

The following table shows some quick information about the coin:

Quick Fact	Details
Years Minted	1807–1839
Designer	John Reich (1807-1835); Christian Gobrecht (1836-1839)
Composition	89.24% silver through 1836; 90% silver beginning in 1837
Diameter	32.5 mm (1807-1835); 30 mm (1836-1839)
Weight	13.48 g through 1836; 13.36 g beginning in 1837
Mint Locations	Philadelphia (1807-1839); New Orleans (1838-1839)

What Is a Capped Bust Half Dollar?

The Capped Bust half dollar is a U.S. silver coin that the Mint produced from 1807 to 1839. The coin has a face value of 50 cents, which made it an important coin in everyday currency. People used half dollars to pay workers, buy goods, and settle business transactions. Their high silver content also made them popular in both domestic and international commerce.

The coin was designed by German-born engraver John Reich. His design replaced the Draped Bust half dollar in 1807 and gave the series a fresh look. The obverse shows Liberty wearing a soft cap with loose hair. The reverse features a heraldic eagle holding arrows and an olive branch, symbols of the nation’s strength and desire for peace.

From 1836-1839, the coin has a restyled look created by Christian Gobrecht. That came with some compositional changes,

Half dollars struck from 1807 through 1836 contain 89.24% silver and 10.76% copper. The Mint Act of 1837 changed the alloy to 90% silver and 10% copper while slightly reducing the coin’s weight. Every Capped Bust half dollar from before 1836 measures 32.5 millimeters across. Capped Bust half dollars from 1836-1839 had a diameter of 30 mm across.

Today, collectors value these coins for their history, silver content, and beautiful design. The series also offers everything from affordable type coins to rare dates and varieties worth thousands of dollars.

History of the Capped Bust Half Dollar

The Capped Bust half dollar was introduced in 1807 during a period of change at the United States Mint. It replaced the Draped Bust half dollar, which the U.S. Mint had produced since 1796. Mint officials eventually wanted a design that looked more modern to reflect the nation’s growing confidence. To that end, they hired the German immigrant engraver John Reich.

Reich created a fresh portrait of Liberty wearing a soft cap with loose curls falling over her shoulders. The reverse featured a heraldic eagle holding arrows and an olive branch. The new design gave the half dollar a more natural appearance than earlier U.S. coins and marked an important step in the evolution of American coinage.

During the early 1800s, the half dollar became one of the country’s most useful coins. Large silver dollars were scarce, while smaller silver coins often did not provide enough value for larger purchases. As a result, merchants, banks, and ordinary Americans relied heavily on half dollars for everyday transactions. Many examples saw decades of circulation, which explains why high-grade survivors are much harder to find today.

The series also reflects important changes in the nation’s coinage system. Half dollars struck from 1807 through 1836 featured a lettered edge with the inscription “FIFTY CENTS OR HALF A DOLLAR.”

In 1836, the Mint introduced a reeded edge, making the coins more difficult to alter or counterfeit. The new edge also brought the series in line with improvements in minting technology.

Another major change came with the Mint Act of 1837. This law marked a change in the silver composition. Congress standardized the silver alloy used in silver coins to be an even 90% silver, as opposed to the former 89.24%. The Mint also made a slight reduction in the coin’s weight.

These changes simplified coin production and created a standard that remained in use for many decades.

Production of the Capped Bust half dollar ended in 1839. That year, the Mint replaced the coin with the new Seated Liberty half dollar. Although the design was retired, its popularity continued to endure.

Today, collectors appreciate the series for its connection to the early Republic, its stunning artwork, and its many collectible date and die varieties it offers. From affordable circulated examples to rare mint-state coins, the Capped Bust half dollar remains one of the cornerstones of classic American numismatics.

Where Were Capped Bust Half Dollars Minted?

Most Capped Bust half dollars were struck at the Philadelphia Mint, which was the nation’s only mint for much of the series. Like most coins from this mint, Philadelphia Capped Bust half dollars do not include a mintmark. Philadelphia struck the series from 1807 through 1839; the vast majority of surviving examples come from this mint.

The most famous branch mint issue is the 1838-O, which was struck as a proof coin at the newly opened New Orleans Mint. The “O” mintmark appears on the obverse and identifies the coin as a New Orleans issue.

Because only a small number were produced, the 1838-O is one of the key dates in the series and is highly sought after by collectors. However, it was not the only time the New Orleans branch mint minted Capped Bust half dollars. It minted 116,000 coins in 1839, which are themselves valuable in high grades.

No Capped Bust half dollars were minted in Carson City or San Francisco. Those facilities did not begin producing half dollars until years after the Capped Bust design had been replaced by the Seated Liberty half dollar.

Understanding where these coins were minted can help collectors identify key issues and better appreciate the history of early American coinage.

Capped Bust Half Dollar Design

When John Reich designed the Capped Bust half dollar, his goal was to replace the older Draped Bust design with a portrait that looked more natural. This coin aimed to reflect the young nation’s growing identity. The result was one of the most recognizable designs in early American coinage.

Obverse Design

The obverse features Liberty facing left. She wears a soft cloth cap, often called a “mob cap,” rather than a military or Phrygian cap. Her long hair flows over her shoulders, giving the portrait a relaxed and realistic appearance. The word LIBERTY appears on a band across the cap.

There are thirteen stars that surround Liberty, which represent the original thirteen colonies. The date is positioned below the portrait. Together, these elements create a balanced design that remained largely unchanged throughout the series.

Reverse Design

The reverse displays a heraldic eagle with its wings spread. The eagle holds an olive branch in one talon to symbolize peace and a bundle of arrows in the other to represent military strength. A shield covers the eagle’s chest. Above the eagle is a scroll which bears the national motto: E PLURIBUS UNUM, or “Out of many, one.”

The denomination appears around the edge on early coins and later as 50 C. beneath the eagle. Although the overall design stayed consistent, small changes were made during production as dies wore out or were updated.

Design Changes During the Series

Most Capped Bust half dollars struck from 1807 through 1836 have a lettered edge that reads FIFTY CENTS OR HALF A DOLLAR. The Mint replaced that edge with a reeded variety in 1836.

The change signified a significant change in minting technology driven by steam-powered presses, which improved the coining process. Reeded edges also helped discourage clipping and other forms of tampering.

Collectors often study the small differences between dies used to strike these coins. Slight changes in star placement, lettering, date position, and eagle details created hundreds of collectible die marriages, known as Overton varieties.

These varieties add another layer of interest to an already historic coin series and are one reason the Capped Bust half dollar remains a favorite among advanced collectors.

Understanding Overton Varieties

An Overton variety is a specific die marriage, or pairing of the obverse and reverse dies used to strike a Capped Bust half dollar. Each known die marriage has its own identification number, making it easier for collectors to study and catalog the series.

The system is named after numismatist Al C. Overton, whose reference book on Capped Bust half dollars remains the standard guide for identifying these varieties. Overton numbers begin with the letter “O” followed by a number, such as O-101 or O-102. These numbers do not indicate rarity or value. They simply identify a specific combination of dies.

Some Overton varieties are common and appear regularly on the market. Others are extremely rare because only a few examples are known to exist. Collectors often look for differences in date placement, star spacing, lettering, and small details in the eagle or Liberty’s portrait to identify a variety.

Specialists also use rarity ratings to describe how difficult a variety is to find. A rare die marriage can command a premium, especially when paired with a high-grade coin and original surfaces.

Collecting Overton varieties adds another level of challenge to the Capped Bust half dollar series. For many enthusiasts, identifying and assembling these die marriages is just as rewarding as completing a date set.

Lettered Edge vs Reeded Edge Half Dollars

One of the easiest ways to tell different Capped Bust half dollars apart is by looking at the edge. Coins struck from 1807 through most of 1836 have a lettered edge, while those minted from 1836 through 1839 have a reeded edge. This change marked an important step in the evolution of U.S. coinage.

Lettered Edge Half Dollars (1807-1836)

Early Capped Bust Half Dollars feature the inscription FIFTY CENTS OR HALF A DOLLAR impressed into the edge of the coin. The Mint added this lettering as a security feature. At the time, silver coins were worth close to their face value, making them a target for clipping.

Clipping was a practice in which people sometimes shaved small amounts of silver from the edge before spending their coins. It was easy to overlook the missing silver unless the edge was inspected.

Applying the lettering required a separate step during production, making the process slower and more labor intensive. Even so, the lettered edge became one of the defining features of early U.S. silver coinage.

Reeded Edge Half Dollars

The U.S. Mint adopted a reeded edge in 1836 after introducing modern steam-powered coin presses. These presses could strike the coin and form the edge in one operation, making production faster and more consistent.

The narrow grooves around the edge also made clipping easier to detect. If someone removed silver from the coin, the damaged reeds became immediately visible. Reeded edges are still used on many U.S. coins today for the same reason.

For collectors, the edge is more than a design detail. It quickly identifies whether a coin belongs to the earlier or later part of the series. Lettered-edge and reeded-edge half dollars also have different weights and silver compositions because the Mint Act of 1837 standardized U.S. silver coinage.

Many collectors choose to own one example of each type, while others build complete sets that include both edge styles and the many die varieties found within each series.

Capped Bust Half Dollar Specifications

As you can see from this history, the Capped Bust half dollar changed several times in its 33-year circulation. However, its basic size and purpose remained the same.

The differences that occurred between these coins mostly involved its silver content, weight, and edge design. The updates in these features reflected improvements in minting technology and changes to U.S. coinage laws, including the Mint Act of 1837.

The table below highlights the changes and key specifications for the Capped Bust Half Dollar series:

Specification	Details
Years Minted	1807–1839
Face Value	50 cents
Designer	John Reich
Obverse Designer	John Reich
Reverse Designer	John Reich
Metal	Silver-copper alloy
Composition	89.24% silver, 10.76% copper (1807–1836); 90% silver, 10% copper beginning in 1837
Weight	13.48 g (1807–1836); 13.36 g (1837–1839)
Diameter	32.5 mm
Edge Type	Lettered edge (1807–1836); reeded edge (1836–1839)
Mint Marks	None for Philadelphia; O for New Orleans (1838 only)

Key Dates and Scarce Capped Bust Half Dollars

The table below shows many of the key dates for the Capped Bust half dollar:

Date or Variety	Why It Matters	Approximate Availability
1811	Popular early issue with lower survival in problem-free grades	Scarce
1815	Lowest-mintage regular issue in the series	Rare
1817/4	Famous overdate variety created from a reused 1814 die	Rare
1823	Better date with lower surviving populations in higher grades	Scarce
1827	Difficult issue for collectors seeking attractive original examples	Scarce
1838-O	First half dollar struck at the New Orleans Mint	Key Date

Some Capped Bust half dollar iterations are more rare than others. While all Capped Bust half dollars are historical coins, and therefore often command a slight premium, rare issues can sell for significant premiums at auction.

Several factors beyond simple rarity can contribute to a historical coin’s value. Its low mintages, heavy circulation, and low survival rates all play a role in determining rarity and value.

One of the most sought-after coins in the series is the 1817/4 overdate. Mint workers reused a die from 1814 by punching a new “7” over the original “4.” Today, this overdate is one of the best-known varieties in early U.S. coinage and is highly prized by collectors.

Another key date is the 1815 Capped Bust Half Dollar. No half dollars were struck in 1814 because the Mint lacked enough silver bullion during the War of 1812. As a result, the 1815 issue had a low mintage of just over 47,000 coins. That low mintage makes the 1815 Capped Bust half dollar one of the rarest regular-issue iterations.

There are several other dates that the numismatics market considers scarce. Some of these include:

1811
1823
1827
1838-O

The 1838-O is especially important because it was the first half dollar struck at the New Orleans Mint. The New Orleans Mint only produced a small batch of these coins, which makes it a key coin for collectors of both the series and branch mint issues.

Beyond individual dates, many collectors focus on Overton varieties. Named after researcher Al C. Overton, these die marriages identify the specific obverse and reverse dies used to strike each coin.

Some Overton varieties are common, while others are extremely rare. Collecting these varieties has become a specialty of its own and adds another level of challenge to the series.

Condition can also affect rarity. Many Capped Bust Half Dollars circulated for decades before collectors began saving them. As a result, well-preserved examples with original surfaces are much scarcer than worn coins. Mint State examples often sell for several times the price of circulated pieces, especially for key dates.

For new collectors, the best approach is to focus on quality rather than rarity alone. A common date with strong eye appeal and original surfaces often makes a better long-term addition than a scarce coin with heavy wear or damage.

As your collection grows, you can pursue the more difficult dates and Overton varieties that have made the Capped Bust half dollar one of the most studied series in American numismatics.

How Much Is a Capped Bust Half Dollar Worth?

The value of a Capped Bust half dollar can range from a few hundred dollars to well over $100,000. The biggest factors are the coin’s date, condition, rarity, and originality. While silver content gives every coin a base level of value, collector demand usually has a much greater impact on price.

For most collectors, the first thing to consider is the coin’s date. Common dates are easier to find and usually cost less than low-mintage or scarce issues. Key dates, such as the 1815 and 1838-O, often sell for significantly higher premiums because of how few of these coins survive.

Condition also matters greatly. A heavily worn coin with readable details will usually be worth much less than one with sharp features and little wear. Collectors and grading services use a standard grading scale that ranges from Good (G) to Mint State (MS). As a coin moves up the grading scale, its value can increase dramatically.

A Mint State example of a common date may be worth several times more than the same coin in circulated condition.

Originality is another major factor. Coin collectors prefer coins that retain their natural surfaces and attractive toning. However, the key here is “natural.” Cleaned or polished coins often leave behind small hairlines on the surface, removing some of the natural surface. That can reduce its value, even if it still has a technically high grade.

The easiest way to avoid buying coins with such surfaces is to purchase your coins from certified grading services like PCGS or NGC. These bring stronger prices because buyers have much greater trust in their authenticity and condition.

Many new collectors ask about silver value. Although every Capped Bust half dollar contains a significant amount of silver, its numismatic value usually exceeds its melt value by a wide margin.

Even common, well-worn examples typically sell for much more than the value of the silver they contain. For most buyers, the coin’s history and rarity are far more important than its bullion content.

Market demand can also influence prices. Coins with strong eye appeal, original luster, or rare die varieties often attract competitive bidding at auctions. Popular Overton varieties and key dates may rise in value faster than more common issues, especially when demand increases among advanced collectors.

The table below provides general value ranges by grade. Keep in mind that these figures are estimates. Actual prices depend on the specific date, variety, certification, eye appeal, and current market conditions. Before buying or selling a Capped Bust Half Dollar, compare recent auction results from Heritage Auctions or Stack’s Bower, https://www.pcgs.com/prices/us";>along with the PCGS and NGC Price Guides:

Estimated Capped Bust Half Dollar Values by Grade

Grade	Typical Value Range	What Collectors Look For
Good (G-4)	$95–$250+	Heavy wear, readable date, major design visible
Fine (F-12)	$190–$650+	Clearer Liberty portrait, readable lettering, moderate wear
Extremely Fine (XF-40)	$800–$3,000+	Sharp details, light even wear, strong eye appeal
About Uncirculated (AU-55)	$1,350–$12,500+	Only slight high-point wear, partial luster, original surfaces
Mint State (MS-63+)	$7,000–$100,000+	No circulation wear, strong luster, premium rarity or variety

Please note that these are broad estimate ranges that can change due to date, variety, certification, originality, and eye appeal. This table provides a general range, not exact figures.

How to Grade a Capped Bust Half Dollar

https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-grading/grading-scale/";>Grading is one of the most important skills for anyone collecting Capped Bust half dollars. A small difference in condition can mean a large difference in value. When grading a coin, collectors look at the amount of wear, the sharpness of the design, the quality of the surfaces, and the overall eye appeal.

Start by examining the highest points of the design. On the obverse, look at Liberty’s hair above her forehead, the curls around her face, and the folds of her cap. These areas wear first as the coin circulates. On the reverse, check the eagle’s breast, the tops of the wings, and the shield. The more detail that remains, the higher the grade.

A coin graded Good (G-4) shows heavy wear. Most fine details are gone, but the date, lettering, and major design elements remain visible. These coins are affordable and often appeal to collectors who want an example of the series without paying a premium.

A Fine (F-12) coin has moderate wear, but many design details are still visible. Liberty’s hair curls become easier to see, and the eagle’s feathers show more definition. The coin has a stronger overall appearance than lower-grade examples.

An Extremely Fine (XF-40) coin shows only light wear on the highest points. Most of the original detail remains, and many coins still display traces of mint luster. These pieces are popular because they offer an excellent balance between quality and price.

An About Uncirculated (AU-50 to AU-58) coin has very little wear. Only the highest parts of the design show slight friction, while most of the original luster remains. These coins often look nearly new at first glance.

A Mint State (MS-60 and higher) Capped Bust Half Dollar has no wear from circulation. Instead, graders evaluate the strength of the strike, the quality of the luster, the number of contact marks, and the overall eye appeal. Original, problem-free Mint State examples are scarce because most Capped Bust half dollars circulated for many years.

Finally, inspect the coin’s surfaces carefully. Cleaning, scratches, corrosion, rim damage, or other problems can reduce a coin’s value, even if it has strong detail. When buying expensive examples, many collectors choose coins certified by PCGS or NGC. Professional grading provides added confidence in both authenticity and condition.

Collecting Capped Bust Half Dollars

The Capped Bust half dollar offers something for every type of collector. Whether you are buying your first early U.S. coin or building a specialized collection, the series provides a wide range of options.

Many collectors begin with a type coin. This refers to the practice of purchasing a single Capped Bust half dollar to represent the entire coin series. Common dates in circulated grades are often the most affordable choice and still display the coin’s classic design and historical appeal.

Others build a date set by collecting one example from each year of issue. This approach takes more time and patience because several dates are much scarcer than others. Key dates such as the 1815 and 1838-O often require a larger budget.

Advanced collectors frequently pursue Overton varieties. Each Overton number identifies a specific die marriage, or combination of obverse and reverse dies. Some varieties are common, while others are known from only a handful of surviving coins. Variety collecting has become one of the most popular specialties within the series and offers an added challenge beyond completing a date set.

Regardless of your collecting goal, quality should come before quantity. Look for coins with original surfaces, strong eye appeal, and minimal damage. A common date with attractive toning and natural wear is often a better purchase than a rare coin that has been cleaned or heavily damaged.

Many collectors also prefer coins certified by PCGS or NGC. Professional grading helps verify authenticity and condition, making it easier to buy, sell, and compare coins. As your knowledge grows, you can expand your collection by adding better grades, scarcer dates, or rare Overton varieties.

Common Counterfeits and Authentication Tips

Because Capped Bust half dollars can be valuable, counterfeit examples appear regularly in the marketplace. Some are cast copies made from cheap metals. Others are struck to resemble genuine coins.

Less common tactics include altering dates on existing, authentic coins, or else adding mint marks to make them seem more valuable. While buyers are less likely to encounter these, it’s still best to be aware of them. These are the most convincing coins and have deceived inexperienced buyers.

Start by checking the coin’s weight, diameter, and edge. Genuine Capped Bust half dollars have well-known specifications, and large differences may point to a fake. The edge is especially important. Earlier coins have a lettered edge, while later issues have a reeded edge. An incorrect edge is often a warning sign.

Next, examine the details of the design. Counterfeit coins often have signs of inauthenticity that rarely result from typical wear and weathering. Some of these include soft lettering, blurry stars, or weak features on Liberty and the eagle. Genuine coins should show crisp details, even when they are worn from circulation.

The next step is to inspect the surfaces. Cast copies may have small bubbles on the face. Grainy textures are another sign of inauthenticity. Be cautious of coins with unnatural color, bright polished surfaces, or signs of added damage meant to hide flaws.

When buying a valuable Capped Bust half dollar, choose examples certified by PCGS or NGC whenever possible. Professional grading confirms both authenticity and condition. If you are unsure about a raw coin, have it verified by a service like this before making a purchase or resale.

Frequently Asked Questions

The Capped Bust half dollar is a U.S. silver coin minted from 1807 to 1839. This coin replaced the Draped Bust half dollar with a fresh new design crafted by John Reich. The coin features Liberty wearing a soft cap on the front and a heraldic eagle on the back.

In the early 1800s, this was a heavily used denomination of coin in American commerce. Today, collectors value the series for its history, silver content, and many collectible varieties.

The silver content depends on the coin’s strike year. From 1807 to 1836, these coins contained 89.24% silver and 10.76% copper. In 1837, the Mint changed the alloy to 90% silver and 10% copper under the Mint Act of 1837.

While every Capped Bust Half Dollar contains a significant amount of silver, most examples are worth much more than their melt value because of their collectible appeal.

Several dates are considered rare, but the 1815 Capped Bust half dollars is one of the most sought-after coins in the series. Only 47,150 coins were minted, and far fewer survive today. Other scarce issues include the 1817/4 overdate and the 1838-O, the first half dollar struck at the New Orleans Mint. These coins can vary greatly in their value depending on their condition and rarity.

Capped Bust half dollars struck from 1807 through most of 1836 have a lettered edge that reads FIFTY CENTS OR HALF A DOLLAR. The Mint used this design to discourage clipping, a practice where people removed small amounts of silver from the edge. In 1836, the Mint adopted a reeded edge as new coin presses improved production and made tampering easier to detect.

Many collectors view Capped Bust half dollars as a long-term store of value because they combine precious metal content with historical and numismatic appeal. Like any collectible, prices can rise or fall with market demand. Buying original, problem-free coins with strong eye appeal generally offers the best long-term potential.

You can buy Capped Bust Half Dollars from reputable coin dealers, major auction houses, and established online bullion and numismatic retailers. For higher-value coins, many collectors prefer examples certified by PCGS or NGC. Buying from a trusted source helps reduce the risk of counterfeits and gives you greater confidence in the coin’s authenticity and grade.

Final Thoughts

The Capped Bust half dollar is more than an old silver coin. It represents an important chapter in the history of the United States. It also reflects the evolution of the U.S. Mint during the nation’s early years.

Its classic design, long production run, and many collectible varieties have made it a favorite among both new and experienced collectors. Whether you are looking for a single type coin or planning to build a complete collection, there is a Capped Bust half dollar to fit almost any budget.

Learning how to identify key dates, grade condition, and recognize original surfaces will help you make better buying decisions.

Then, you are prepared to make your purchase. Before deciding on a coin, compare prices from trusted dealers and review recent auction results. If you find rare or expensive coins, it is often best to compare examples certified by PCGS or NGC. With careful research and patience, a Capped Bust half dollar can become a rewarding addition to any collection and a lasting piece of American history.

Gold and Silver Defy a Hawkish Fed

Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

September 21, 2026 – Gold and silver managed to regain some ground last week despite facing what might sometimes be a difficult environment for precious metals.

Gold finished the week https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>up roughly 0.5% at $4,385.90 per ounce, snapping a three-week losing streak. Silver performed considerably better, https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>gaining 3.1% to $66.56.

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That relative strength is noteworthy considering what happened elsewhere in the financial markets. The U.S. dollar strengthened substantially, and Treasury yields remained elevated following the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate increase since 2023.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point last Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. More importantly, the central bankers signaled they may not be finished.

The Fed’s updated projections point toward at least one additional rate hike this year as officials contend with the stubborn inflation they helped create. The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week near 5%, while inflation-adjusted yields also moved higher.

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Conventional wisdom, which is often flawed, says that a stronger Federal Reserve note and higher real interest rates will weigh heavily on gold and silver.

Yet both metals finished higher.

Gold's resilience suggests there remains substantial underlying investment demand even as leveraged futures traders have become somewhat less enthusiastic.

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds attracted $18 billion during August, according to World Gold Council data. That was the second-largest monthly inflow on record and pushed global ETF gold holdings to a record 4,189 tonnes.

Central banks haven't lost their appetite for the yellow metal either. China reportedly added another 20.2 tonnes of gold in August, its largest monthly purchase since 2023 and its 22nd consecutive month of reported buying.

Silver, meanwhile, continues to show relative strength.

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The gold-to-silver ratio has fallen into the mid-60s after reaching roughly 72 earlier this year. As long as the ratio remains below the 69 area, the technical picture continues to favor silver relative to gold.

For gold, $4,230 has emerged as an important support level. The metal tested that area last week before buyers stepped in aggressively. Silver similarly has important support around $62.30.

The metals are starting the new week quietly, with gold slightly down and silver flat.

One factor helping calm markets Monday morning is oil.

Brent crude fell roughly 2% toward $102 per barrel as traders reacted to hopes that this week's United Nations meetings could produce some diplomatic progress involving Iran.

But geopolitical risks are still extremely high. The Middle East conflict continues, while Russia and Ukraine intensified attacks over the weekend, including strikes involving energy infrastructure.

The Federal Reserve Is Shadowboxing Inflation

Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Kevin Warsh and his minions at the Federal Reserve are shadowboxing.

Mind you, they should certainly be battling inflation. But instead, they seem to be fighting rising oil prices.

That's not the same thing.

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https://youtu.be/lmvFyBBJORM"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Inflation, properly defined, is an increase in the supply of money and credit. Price inflation – rising consumer prices – is one symptom of this monetary inflation. However, other things can cause price inflation, including oil shocks.

The difference between a price shock and inflation is that a price shock only raises some prices. Monetary inflation causes a rise in the general price level, and it’s the only thing that produces such an effect. As economist Milton Friedman put it, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

Don't get me wrong. There is plenty of inflation in the system, evidenced by the increasing money supply. By the M2 metric, inflation is running around 5 percent right now. However, Warsh and Co., along with the markets and pretty much everybody in the mainstream financial media, are fixated on oil prices.

I’m not saying rising fuel prices aren’t important. I’m not saying they won’t cause significant economic disruption. I’m not even saying the oil shock won’t drive up many other prices. It will, and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/14/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-august-2026-005198";>we’ll see it reflected in the CPI.

But I am saying this is not the kind of “inflation” the Fed can stop by hiking interest rates.

If you doubt me, ask yourself: how does a quarter-point interest rate hike pump more oil out of the ground? How does it increase refining capacity? How does it open the Strait of Hormuz?

I’m sure some folks reading this are confused. You’ve been programmed to think that rising prices = inflation. We fight inflation by hiking interest rates. Ergo, the Fed is doing what it needs to do.

What's the problem?

The Fed has gone to war with inflation's shadow. In effect, it's the right fight with the wrong opponent. The central bank needs to drive down monetary inflation, but it's focused on a price shock. If that's the actual problem, the central bank shouldn't hike rates because rising oil prices aren't truly inflationary. While monetary inflation drives every price higher, some prices inevitably fall during a price shock.

In https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/12/daniel-lacalle-rate-hikes-wont-fix-inflation-or-solve-the-debt-problem-005197";>a recent interview, economist Daniel Lacalle pointed out this confused thinking, noting that policymakers and Keynesian economists always try to center the argument around individual prices.

“Oil prices are up; therefore, inflation is up. No, that's not true. If that was the case in 2022, 2023, and 2024, we would've had deflation. So, we need to differentiate between individual prices and aggregate prices.”

Lacalle went on to explain why an oil shock doesn’t cause “inflation” in the economic sense.

“For the same amount of money, if oil prices go up due to an energy shock, whatever it is, et cetera, the amount of money in the system to purchase the remaining goods and services is lower. Therefore, high oil prices don't mean higher inflation because, for the same amount of money, you would have less units of currency to purchase other goods and services. Therefore, the price of other goods and services would remain stable or come down. A lot of people say a war is inflationary. Oil prices are inflationary. No, they're not. They are disinflationary.”

So, if Warsh & Co. just raised rates because oil prices are up, they made a big mistake. Lacalle said the hike has “zero impact” on energy prices or government spending. It will only hurt small businesses and families.

“The Fed is not going to bring down the price of oil or the price of natural gas, and obviously hiking rates would be completely useless as a tool on that front. But in terms of employment, it is going to be absolutely brutal because 90 percent of the job creation in the United States, as in the Euro area or any developed economy, comes from small and medium enterprises. We have already seen that job creation is significantly less robust than other macro indicators, and that comes mostly from the very aggressive levels of financing costs that small and medium enterprises suffer in the United States.”

All that said, there is plenty of inflation in the system. One can make a strong argument for raising interest rates based on the increasing money supply. But that just brings us back to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Fed’s Catch-22.

All these things are simultaneously true:

The Fed rate hike last week won’t create more oil or lower energy costs
Nevertheless, one can argue for a rate hike based on the growing money supply and core CPI that continues to run warm.
In fact, you can further argue that a quarter-point rate hike is like spitting in the ocean given the level of inflation injected into the system during the pandemic (and the Great Recession before that). https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/15/the-fed-hasnt-done-enough-to-beat-price-inflation-002991";>The Fed never did enough to slay inflation to begin with.
At the same time, one can argue for a rate cut to keep the debt-riddled bubble economy floating along. An economy dominated by a Debt Black Hole does not function in a high-interest-rate environment.
If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, it will almost certainly tip the economy into a recession, as Lacalle noted.
Failing to hold rates higher for longer will allow inflation to continue to run free.

What is a dutiful Fed person to do?

Apparently, deliver a token quarter-point hike and hope like hell the economy can hold together long enough for oil prices to ease so they can plausibly cut rates.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

In the meantime, all roads lead to inflation. Prepare accordingly.

7 Million Ounces of Silver Left COMEX Vaults Last Week With a Spike in Deliveries

Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Over 7 million ounces of silver left COMEX vaults last week as demand for physical metal surged.

Meanwhile, CME recorded 6,168 September silver delivery notices through Sept. 18, representing a "delivery" of 30.84 million ounces, according to https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/nymex-delivery-notices.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the CME’s delivery notice and warehouse report.

A “delivery” tied to a futures contract does not necessarily mean silver left the warehouse. Typically, it just involves transferring a warehouse warrant to the new owner without any physical movement of metal. That’s what makes 7 million ounces of physical metal leaving the warehouse in a single week notable.

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For perspective, the 7.2-million-ounce silver outflow equals about 223 tonnes, roughly 2.1 percent of the total COMEX inventory.

This doesn’t indicate a looming silver shortage, but it is a notable metal outflow. It could become significant if physical deliveries become a trend.

How Does COMEX Delivery Work?

Metal stored in a COMEX-approved warehouse can be categorized in one of two ways.

Registered silver has an active warrant attached, meaning it is available for immediate delivery against a futures contract.

Eligible silver meets COMEX standards and is stored in an approved warehouse, but without an active warrant attached. Eligible silver is not available for delivery. The owner can register it by asking the warehouse owner to issue a warrant.

When silver is reclassified from registered to eligible, registered inventory falls and eligible inventory rises by the same amount. Conversely, registered inventory rises, and eligible inventory falls when a warrant is issued for the metal. In both operations, total COMEX inventory remains the same. That only changes when metal enters or leaves the system.

During a contract delivery month, a short that intends to deliver issues a notice through its clearing firm. A long receives the warehouse warrant and becomes the legal owner of the metal. The new owner has several options:

Leave the silver as registered
Cancel the warrant and move the metal to eligible
Sell or transfer the warrant
Cancel the warrant and arrange to move the metal out of the warehouse

What Happened Last Week

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Last week (Sept. 10-17), registered metal increased by 1.4 million ounces to 97.3 million ounces. Meanwhile, eligible silver fell by roughly 8.6 million ounces to 232.8 million ounces.

Total inventory dipped from 337.2 million ounces on Sept. 10 to 330.1 million ounces on Sept. 17, indicating around 7.1 million ounces of silver physically left COMEX vaults in that seven-day period.

CME’s reports do not establish that the silver leaving warehouses was the same metal represented by September delivery notices.

For some perspective, the drawdown was roughly 25 percent larger than the 5.75-million-ounce decline from Oct. 3-9, 2025, in the early stages of the October squeeze. It was approximately half the 13.96-million-ounce total drawdown recorded between Oct. 9 and Oct. 16.

However, it’s important to note that unlike during the October squeeze, registered inventories (silver available for delivery) increased last week. The squeeze drained nearly 14.2 million ounces from the registered category. In other words, last week’s movement signals strong physical withdrawals from COMEX vaults. However, it is not putting the same pressure on COMEX’s deliverable supply as we saw in October because plenty of registered metal remains.

Looking at the big picture, last week’s drawdown does not indicate an imminent shortage of physical metal. It could be a one-off event. However, if this level of silver outflow becomes a trend, it could lead to another silver squeeze.

Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Why Is Silver Going Down - Fed Rate Hikes, a Strong Dollar, and Forced Futures Selling - Past Crash Recoveries, the Deficit Paradox, and Signs of a Bottom - Money Metals

What's Pushing Silver Down Right Now (Updated September 17, 2026)

Why Is Silver Going Down? 6 Forces Causing the Fall

1. Rising Interest Rates and Real Yields

2. A Stronger U.S. Dollar

3. Forced Selling in the Futures Market

4. Worries About Industrial Demand

5. Investors Selling Silver ETFs

6. Profit-Taking After a Huge Rally

Why Silver Falls Harder Than Gold

What the Gold-Silver Ratio Says

The Paradox: Record Supply Deficits, Falling Prices

Paper Silver vs. Physical Silver: What Buyers Actually Pay

How Past Silver Crashes Played Out

Is Silver Going to Keep Going Down? Signs a Bottom May Be Forming

Three Scenarios for Silver From Here

Should You Buy Silver When the Price Is Falling?

Frequently Asked Questions

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The Bottom Line

Who Sets the Silver Price - How the Daily LBMA Silver Price Auction Works - Auction Participants, Silver Fix History, and Spot Price Differences - Money Metals

Who Sets the Silver Price?

The Firms in the Auction Room

How the Noon Auction Works, Step by Step

What Time Is the Silver Price Set in U.S. Time?

From the London Silver Fix to the LBMA Silver Price: Three Eras

Is There Still a Silver Fix?

LBMA Silver Price vs. the Spot Price You See Online

Does the Auction Reflect the Real Market? What the Regulator Found

What About Silver Price Manipulation?

Frequently Asked Questions

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The Bottom Line

Back to the Futures! What's Going On With Silver at the COMEX?

Articles Mentioned in the Show

Gold Demand - Jewelry, Investment, Central Bank, and Technology Buyers by Sector - Price-Setting vs. Price-Following Demand, Recycling Supply, and Retail Premiums - Money Metals

Key Takeaways

How Much Gold Does the World Buy Each Year?

The Two Totals You Will See Quoted

Gold Demand by Sector

Why Do People Buy Gold, and What Drives Gold Demand?

Central Bank Demand

Investment Demand

Jewelry Demand

Technology and Industrial Demand

Price-Setting Demand vs. Price-Following Demand

Demand That Follows the Price

Demand That Sets the Price

Where Gold Supply Comes From

Mine Production

Recycling, the Flexible Valve

The Supply and Demand Balance

Why Gold Is Not Like Oil or Wheat

Does Rising Gold Demand Mean a Higher Gold Price?

What Global Gold Demand Means When You Buy

Premiums Widen First

Availability and Lead Times

Buyback Spreads Move Too

What We See on Our Own Orders

A Checklist for Buying Into a Demand Spike

How to Read the Gold Demand Report Yourself

Three Common Mistakes

Frequently Asked Questions

How much gold is bought each year? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Who is the biggest buyer of gold in the world? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

What percentage of gold demand is jewelry? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Is gold demand rising or falling? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

What is safe haven demand for gold? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Does gold demand exceed supply? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">