Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

The Bull Market Isn't Over: Silver Setting Up for Next Leg Higher

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

There’s not a lot of bullishness in the silver market right now.

After surging to https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>just over $120 per ounce in January, silver corrected and has lost more than half its value.

Given the metal's trajectory over the last 10 months, bearishness is understandable. But as technical analyst Jesse Colombo pointed out in https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/silvers-bull-market-roadmap"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a recent Substack article, many investors delivering silver’s last rites today only started paying attention as silver neared that $120 peak.

“They piled in near the very top, just weeks or even days before silver peaked at $121, only to lose interest when it corrected, as all overheated assets eventually do. Then they simply moved on to what they believe is the latest and greatest hot asset, whether it’s an overvalued and overhyped AI stock, a new cryptocurrency, or whatever else the lemmings are currently piling into.”

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Colombo believes these investors have completely missed the big picture.

“Naturally, most of those same investors had practically no interest in silver https://silverseek.com/article/why-powerful-silver-bull-market-may-be-ahead"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">when I foresaw the bull market beginning in early 2024, when it was still trading in the $20s. Now that silver has cooled off, they are once again nowhere to be found.”

And Colombo thinks they are about to miss out on “the next powerful leg of this bull market.”

“This is the time to be paying close attention and accumulating while it is still quite cheap. The next move is going to take most investors by surprise, and they will only want to pile back in once silver is overheated again and all over the news.”

A Cup of Silver

Colombo said he has been following a “silver bull market roadmap” for the past couple of years. That roadmap is a massive cup-and-handle pattern that's been forming since the 1960s.

A cup-and-handle pattern is an extremely bullish technical indicator.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cup-and-handle-silver-oct-26.png"; width="800" height="481" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

As Colombo noted, this decades-in-the-making pattern “projects the metal reaching hundreds of dollars per ounce following a breakout.”

That breakout occurred when silver finally surged through $50 last October.

That $50 level served as a firm resistance level for decades. Silver hit that level twice: the first time in the 1980s, and then again nearly two years after the Great Recession. Colombo said that now that silver broke this resistance, history tells us silver is poised for a massive run higher.

“Although silver has since cooled off, the breakout remains very much valid and in play, and I see the next powerful leg higher beginning soon once this necessary cooling-off period is complete.”

After the breakout, https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/precious-metals-are-trading-like"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Colombo warned that silver was due for a “healthy cooling-off period,” but it would not mark the end of the bull market.

“I continue to stand by that view today.”

Colombo noted that the “relative strength index (RSI)” tracks sentiment in the silver market. The RSI clearly shows that silver became extremely overheated and overbought in late 2025 and early 2026.

Today, the RSI has moderated, revealing that silver is closer to oversold. Colombo said this indicates, “the worst of the correction is behind us and that anyone calling for a sharp crash from here has the odds stacked against them.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/rsi-silver-oct-26.png"; width="800" height="480" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Colombo noted that silver has held the $50 support level throughout the correction.

“This means silver’s breakout remains fully intact and in play as long as it continues to hold above $50, which has now become a key support level.”

Colombo pointed out that silver appears to be forming a “double bottom.” We might see a final flush that pushes silver below $50 before it ultimately bottoms and then off on the next leg higher. But he said this isn’t his “base-case expectation.”

“There is no hard-and-fast rule that says silver must precisely touch the $50 support level before its correction can come to an end.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>The gold-silver ratio is another key technical indicator for silver. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold at the current spot price. For instance, a ratio of 70-1 means it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1. When it rises far above that level, it tends to snap back to the mean as silver prices rise and close the gap.

Colombo notes that the gold-silver ratio is currently in a triangle pattern, a common occurrence when asset prices pause and consolidate.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-silver-ratio-triangle.png"; width="800" height="480" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

“In technical analysis, triangle patterns often act as https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/continuationpattern.asp"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">continuation patterns, meaning that once the necessary consolidation or cooling-off period has run its course, the original trend resumes in the same direction, setting the stage for a repeat of the prior move.”

Colombo said that when this pattern breaks down, he expects it will kick off the next phase of the bull market. At that point, silver will likely surge back to its record high of $121 and beyond.

Finally, Colombo said that the fact we never saw true silver mania grip the market supports his belief that this is a short-term correction, not a top and a pending multi-year bear market. He noted that iShares Silver Trust reported a “lukewarm” 30 million ounce increase in silver holdings even as the price increased sixfold.

“That kind of lukewarm interest from American investors is simply not what you would expect to see during a true bubble mania immediately before a violent collapse and years of declining prices. My bet, however, is that the real mania still lies ahead of us and will begin to unfold once silver surpasses its January peak of $121, ultimately taking the metal into the hundreds of dollars per ounce.”

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/no-mania-in-silver.png"; width="800" height="620" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Colombo also noted that American Silver Eagle sales “fell off a cliff” during those years.

“To me, this is further confirmation that silver’s long-term bull market did not end in January 2026. There simply was not enough mainstream investor participation to mark a true secular peak.”

Colombo concludes, asserting that “mainstream investors are notoriously fickle, and that seems to be especially true when it comes to silver.”

“They tend to take an interest only after silver is already posting explosive gains, pile in too late just before a correction, and then blame silver when they lose money, claiming that it is a bad investment. The reality is that the problem is not silver or silver miners, but their own poor timing and investing behavior.”

Colombo said that this correction presents a buying opportunity.

“The time to pay close attention and accumulate is when silver seems boring, and investors are giving up on it, because that is when it is setting up for its next leg higher. I sincerely believe that is where we are today. The 2026 correction has tested investors’ patience, but those who stayed the course will be richly rewarded when silver’s next powerful leg higher begins.”

You can read Colombo's full analysis https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/silvers-bull-market-roadmap"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">HERE.

Disappointing 20-Year Treasury Auction Underscores Weakness in the Bond Market

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

What happens when you run massive budget deficits year after year and make no effort to rein in borrowing and spending?

People stop lending you money.

We’re starting to see the impacts of the United States’ fiscal malfeasance in a struggling bond market.

The federal government ran https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-administration-runs-third-largest-federal-budget-deficit-in-history-005303";>the third-largest budget deficit in history in fiscal 2026, despite rising tax receipts. The Trump administration blew through a record $7.4 trillion. To put that into context, that's roughly $20.3 billion per day.

No wonder people are becoming wary of loaning Uncle Sam more money.

Meanwhile, yields on the long end of the curve have hit levels not seen since the early 00s. The 30-year Treasury recently eclipsed 5.7 percent, and while the yield has eased modestly, it remains at multi-decade highs.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/30-yr-treasury-oct22-26.png"; width="700" height="370" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

This signals sagging demand for Treasuries.

Yields inversely correlate with bond prices. As bonds become less expensive with softening demand, interest rates simultaneously rise.

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Falling Treasury demand is also showing up at government auctions.

On Wednesday (Oct. 21), the U.S. Treasury ran a 20-year bond auction. Morningstar said it showed “softer than expected demand.”

The Treasury sold $13 billion in bonds with a high yield of 5.469 percent. That was the highest yield in a 20-year Treasury auction since 1986, the year the Treasury stopped issuing the 20-year bond. It resumed selling 20-year Treasuries in 2020.

Bad News for Uncle Sam

By the way, this is a big problem for the federal government. Selling bonds at higher yields means Uncle Sam will be on the hook for higher interest payments in the years to come. Interest expense is already overwhelming the government budget. The Treasury forked out $1.36 trillion in fiscal 2026. That was an 11.5 percent increase over the previous year.

Much of the debt currently on the books was financed at very low rates before the Federal Reserve started its hiking cycle. Every month, some of that super-low-yielding paper matures and must be replaced with bonds with much higher rates.

The soft bond market reflects a broader trend dubbed the “https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/28/with-bonds-struggling-investors-turning-to-tangible-assets-like-gold-005096";>debasement trade.” This strategy emphasizes holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against declining fiat currencies due to monetary debasement.

Monetary debasement and rising debt are directly connected.

When the federal government borrows excessively, the Federal Reserve eventually steps in with https://youtu.be/ipaQAgOCJBk?si=ou_ydjjePJ2S6rlM"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">quantitative easing (QE). In these operations, the central bank buys Treasuries using money created out of thin air and holds them on its balance sheet. This effectively takes the bonds out of circulation, thereby lowering supply, boosting prices, and lowering yields. In effect, QE creates artificial demand for Treasuries, enabling the government to borrow more and lower rates.

However, this debt monetization is inflationary. It erodes your purchasing power.

Should I Sell My Gold and Silver?

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Rising yields have created significant headwinds for precious metals. That’s because conventional wisdom holds that higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold and silver less attractive. We’ve seen this pressure in the precious metals markets for several months.

However, it’s important to consider why yields are rising. If it’s due to inflation, you might consider keeping your https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/18/golds-role-as-an-inflation-hedge-in-the-21st-century-003263";>inflation hedge.

It’s also important to remember that while nominal rates might be rising quickly, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/02/17/why-inflation-and-real-interest-rates-are-bullish-for-gold-003841";>real interest rates rise much more slowly in a high-inflation environment.

The real interest rate is simply the stated rate adjusted for price inflation.

To calculate the real interest rate, subtract the CPI from the stated interest rate. For instance, if a bond yields 5 percent but the CPI is 4 percent, the real interest rate on the bond is only 1 percent.

Sagard Wealth Management CIO Stephen Harvey called the current economic environment “pro-growth and pro-inflation” and emphasized that fiscal policy now matters more than monetary policy.

In other words, investors are paying less attention to what the Fed and other central banks may do with interest rates and more attention to the rampant borrowing and spending by the world’s governments.

Global Chief Investment Strategist at State Street Investment Management Jenn Bender told Reuters that "real assets, tangible assets valued for their intrinsic physical qualities," have gained appeal since the post-COVID inflation shock. She emphasized that the case continues to strengthen as "the bond outlook clouds and soaring equity markets appear vulnerable."

"The worry is that there is some downside risk in equities. Fixed income is not the place that people want to move their equity allocations over to. Basically, real assets is kind of where you end up."

Mike Maharrey Connects Federal Debt to Dollar Debasement and Inflation

Thu, 22 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

In the closing chapter of this Midweek Memo episode, host https://share.google/JeBe54fCmVNzyq6tQ"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mike Maharrey turns to federal deficits, national debt, inflation, and the reasons investors look to precious metals. He says budget figures often provoke a brief reaction of shock, followed by a shrug. Even https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-administration-runs-third-largest-federal-budget-deficit-in-history-005303";>as deficits grow, many people assume they do not matter because the economy has continued to function.

Maharrey acknowledges why that response can seem reasonable. The United States has run large deficits for decades, and daily life has carried on. But he argues that the effects of borrowing can accumulate over time. A problem that develops gradually may not feel urgent until it begins to affect confidence in the dollar, the government’s ability to borrow, and the purchasing power of household savings.

For Maharrey, the link between federal finances and the value of money is central to understanding the precious metals market. He says rising debt and persistent government spending are not only political or budgetary issues. They can also influence the dollar’s credibility and the decisions made by investors and foreign governments.

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Borrowing Could Weaken Confidence in U.S. Credit

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Maharrey cites a warning from the Bipartisan Policy Center following a large budget shortfall the previous year. The organization said that a rapidly worsening fiscal situation and expectations of substantially rising federal debt could undermine confidence in the United States’ creditworthiness.

He emphasizes that the warning was written the year before the episode, arguing that the fiscal pressures it described had continued. In his view, concerns about the government’s finances can have practical consequences. Reduced confidence could contribute to slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and declines in investment wealth.

The government’s borrowing costs are another possible consequence. If investors become less willing to buy U.S. debt, the Treasury may need to offer higher yields to attract them. Maharrey says bond yields had reached levels not seen since 2001, presenting that move as evidence of weaker demand for government debt.

He describes the change as a reassessment by investors who may be less willing to keep lending to a government that continues to borrow without a credible plan to rein in spending. The comparison he uses is that of a borrower who has already run up large debts but shows little intention of changing course. The image is meant to capture a concern about creditworthiness, not simply the size of one year’s deficit.

A Bipartisan Problem With Short-Term Political Incentives

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Maharrey cautions against treating the debt problem as the responsibility of only the president currently in office. He calls fiscal irresponsibility a bipartisan pattern and says every president since Calvin Coolidge has left office with more national debt than when he took office.

His broader argument is that the federal government has a long-term spending problem that politicians have little incentive to confront. Elected officials tend to focus on the next election, he says, while meaningful spending changes could impose immediate costs on voters. That creates a political preference for postponing difficult decisions, even as the debt continues to grow.

Maharrey argues that additional revenue alone would not resolve the problem. He dismisses the idea that tariffs, taxes on billionaires, or cuts to a few smaller programs would be enough to close the gap. In his assessment, addressing the debt would require a substantial contraction in government spending, including reductions to major programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

He also recognizes the difficulty of that prescription. Large changes to those programs would be politically painful, and he questions whether elected officials are willing or able to make them. But he says investors and foreign governments are paying attention to the gap between the country’s borrowing needs and its willingness to change course.

How Debt and Money Creation Feed Inflation

Maharrey https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/16/financial-stress-at-levels-not-seen-since-the-pandemic-005300";>links government spending to inflation through a sequence of borrowing and money creation. In his account, spending beyond current revenue leads to more borrowing and debt. He says that debt can then be monetized through the creation of money, adding to inflationary pressure and reducing the purchasing power of the currency.

He stresses that this is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/15/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-september-2026-005295";>not the only force affecting prices. The episode also mentions war as another factor. But Maharrey argues that continued government spending and borrowing create an underlying inflationary pressure that persists even when particular events or market conditions change.

He connects this process to the everyday experience of paying more for groceries and gasoline. The point, he says, is that inflation does not have to arrive as a sudden collapse in the dollar’s value. It can steadily erode what people can buy with their savings and income.

Maharrey describes the stated goal of 2% annual inflation as a continuing loss of purchasing power. At that rate, he says, the dollar would lose roughly 10% of its purchasing power over five years and 20% over ten years. The figures illustrate the cumulative effect he wants listeners to consider when evaluating cash savings over time.

He calls that gradual loss an “inflation tax.” The government can collect revenue directly through taxes, he says, but inflation also transfers purchasing power away from the public. In his view, the cost of government must ultimately fall on people, whether through taxes imposed today, taxes borne by future generations, or currency debasement.

Gold and Silver in the Debasement Trade

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Maharrey connects these fiscal concerns to what https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/27/gold-and-silver-surge-as-the-debasement-trade-returns-005164";>investors call the “debasement trade.” He defines it as an investment approach that emphasizes tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities as protection against the declining value of fiat currencies.

He points to China’s gold buying as an example of a country seeking to limit its exposure to the dollar. Maharrey says China is wary of the United States’ fiscal position and the dollar’s vulnerabilities, and he presents its accumulation of gold as a response to those concerns.

He encourages listeners to consider whether precious metals could play a role in their own financial plans. Rather than prescribing a particular product or allocation, he says a Money Metals specialist can help customers assess which products may suit their circumstances. The episode mentions options ranging from Canadian Maple Leaf coins to junk silver, as well as online purchases and the company’s bullion depository in Eagle, Idaho.

Preparing Before a Crisis

Maharrey closes by recalling a conversation with a friend who felt that years of warnings about federal finances had lulled people into a false sense of security. The friend used a phrase Maharrey says he often repeats: “Things happen slowly and then all at once.”

That idea summarizes the episode’s warning. A fiscal problem can build for years without causing an immediate crisis. But if confidence in U.S. debt weakens or borrowing costs rise further, the effects could arrive more abruptly than people expect.

Maharrey urges listeners to prepare before that happens. He directs them to http://moneymetals.com/news";>MoneyMetals.com/news for news and information, invites them to join the company’s email list, and encourages them to subscribe to the Midweek Memo and the Friday Weekly Market Wrap. The episode ends with his reminder that the nation’s fiscal challenges are ongoing and that decisions made in response to them could shape the dollar’s purchasing power for years to come.

Weren't We Promised Spending Cuts?

Wed, 21 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Weren't we promised spending cuts?

And it wasn't just President Trump. Joe Biden promised spending cuts several years ago. And yet the federal government just ran the third-largest budget deficit in history.

In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey uses a biased report claiming the deficit was due to tax cuts as a springboard to tell the whole story. He breaks down the data and explains the ramifications, all while dissecting misleading mainstream analysis.

He also explains why never-ending deficits are extremely important to gold and silver investors.

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Mike opens the show with a pronouncement.

"I’m biased.

"And by the way, you’re biased.

"Your neighbor is biased. So are your parents.

"The guy telling you the news? Biased.

"In fact – everybody is biased!"

Mike explains what this means.

"We all have the tendency to favor certain things, points of view, people, and perspectives. Our life experience, background, upbringing, religion, philosophical outlook, and a billion other things lead to biases. And here’s the thing – even if we’re aware of our biases, we can’t really escape them. They are part of our psychological landscape."

Mike applies this idea to journalism.

"As regular listeners know, I went to journalism school. Of course, we talked a lot about bias. We were told we should write 'unbiased' stories. It’s one of the 10 commandments of journalism. I pretty quickly came to the conclusion that it’s impossible to write an unbiased story because, well, I’m biased. But what I can do is write a balanced story. I can tell all sides and represent them fairly. I can endeavor not to editorialize or insert my opinion. And I can do my best to include all relevant information, including stuff that undercuts my point of view."

Mike explains that he ran across a glaring example of mainstream media bias in a story about the federal budget deficit.

He asserts that "fake news" accusations are often overplayed.

"However, mainstream media bias is a thing, and you should be aware of it, even in financial news reporting."

He found it in a https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/the-us-federal-budget-deficit-for-2026-just-came-in-its-1992-trillion-191917669.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yahoo Finance report on the 2026 federal budget deficit.

"On Friday, the Treasury Department released the September 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement, revealing the federal government ran a deficit of nearly $2 trillion. $1.99 trillion, to be precise. It was the third-largest budget shortfall in history. The only larger deficits were during the COVID years. Now, if you follow politics at all, you know Democrats like to blame large budget deficits on tax cuts, and Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul was bound and determined to advance this narrative."

Mike notes that Werschkul's report was pretty standard until a subsection headlined "Revenue downturn."

"Let’s just pause here for a moment. When you read that subheading, you naturally assume that federal revenues fell last year, right? Hold that thought."

In the first paragraph of the subsection, Werschkul asserts, "The revenue side of the U.S. government's budget equation has also faltered on some fronts in 2026, in part due to tax cuts implemented by Trump's ‘One Big Beautiful Bill.’”

Mike draws the logical conclusion.

"There you have it. Revenue fell because the Republicans cut taxes! It’s the standard left-wing argument."

But Mike points out Werschkul left something out of his reporting.

"While he mentions how much revenue the federal government collected last year in the first paragraph (It was $5.4 trillion, by the way), he never puts it into any context. He fails to compare this year's receipts to last year. In fact, the federal government collected 3.2 percent more than it did in 2025. Isn't that at least a little bit relevant here?"

Mike notes that federal receipts have increased over the last three years -- by nearly 20 percent.

"This is not a revenue problem. It’s a spending problem. Federal outlays grew by 5.5 percent in 2026. For the life of me, I can’t figure out how a veteran reporter left out the fact that revenue increased while creating the impression that it fell. I’ll let you speculate on the reasons."

Mike digs deeper into the 2026 Treasury data, noting the deficit was 12 percent higher than in 2025. Meanwhile, the Trump administration blew through nearly $7.4 trillion in fiscal 2026. To put it into context, that's roughly $20.3 billion per day.

"A 5.5 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?"

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Mike points out that this isn't just a Trump problem. Biden also promised spending cuts when he signed the debt ceiling deal.

"Despite some non-specific talk about 'spending cuts,' there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas."

Mike points out that a lot of people seem unconcerned about deficits and the growing national debt; however, it matters. Ultimately, it undermines the dollar.

"This could lead to slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and less investment wealth. A lack of confidence in the U.S. fiscal situation could also reduce demand for U.S. debt. This would force Treasury yields even higher to attract investors. We’re seeing that today with yields at levels not seen since 2001."

Mike says the deficits are relevant to gold and silver investors because the rest of the world is paying attention and responding accordingly.

"In fact, this is one of the factors driving the debasement trade. This is a fancy term for the investment strategy emphasizing holding tangible assets such as gold, silver, and other commodities to protect against the decline of fiat currencies caused by monetary debasement. In other words, a lot of countries, including China, are stacking gold because they have become wary of America’s fiscal malfeasance. You should be too."

Mike wraps up the show with a call to action -- call 800-800-1865 and talk to a Money Metals precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned in the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/04/debasement-trade-supporting-gold-even-as-yields-spike-005265";>Debasement Trade Supporting Gold Even as Yields Spike

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/11/11/presidents-and-debt-the-worst-of-the-worst-003602";>Presidents and Debt: The Worst of the Worst

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/15/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-september-2026-005295";>Beyond CPI: The Complete Inflation Story -- September 2026

Anatomy of Media Bias: Yahoo Article Implies Federal Revenue Fell Last Year Driving the Deficit

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

I ran across a glaring example of mainstream media bias that I want to highlight for you.

Accusations of “fake news” are often overplayed. However, mainstream media bias is a thing, and you should be aware of it, even in financial news reporting.

On Friday, the Treasury Department released the September 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement, revealing https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-administration-runs-third-largest-federal-budget-deficit-in-history-005303";>the federal government ran a deficit of nearly $2 trillion. It was the third-largest budget shortfall in history.

Democrats like to blame large budget deficits on tax cuts, and Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul was bound and determined to advance this narrative.

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The problem is: it isn’t true.

Ben isn’t a greenhorn reporter. According to his bio, he “covered Washington for over 20 years as a reporter and video producer, working previously at The New York Times and CNN.”

I can’t help but note that the Times and CNN are notorious for left-wing bias. Apparently, Ben packed some in his bag and headed over to Yahoo Finance.

The reporting in the top half of https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/the-us-federal-budget-deficit-for-2026-just-came-in-its-1992-trillion-191917669.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">his story is pretty standard and unobjectionable. Werschkul highlighted the deficit data and put it in context with the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>surging national debt. He accurately described federal spending growth. He also noted the rapidly increasing interest expense and the impact of tariffs.

So far, so good.

And then our intrepid reporter launched into a subsection headlined “Revenue downturn.”

Let’s just pause here for a moment.

When you read that subheading, you naturally assume that federal revenues fell last year, right?

Hold that thought.

The first paragraph of this subsection reads:

“The revenue side of the U.S. government's budget equation has also faltered on some fronts in 2026, in part due to tax cuts implemented by Trump's ‘One Big Beautiful Bill.’”

There you have it. Revenue fell because the Republicans cut taxes! It’s the standard left-wing argument.

Werschkul then launched into an overview of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis, noting that tariff revenue declined along with corporate income tax collections.

“The group calculates that corporate income taxes decreased by 16% in 2026 as the new tax cuts allowed corporations to take larger deductions ‘and offset the increases in those receipts that otherwise would have been expected, given the rise in corporate income.’"

This paragraph feels intentionally confusing. What does this really mean?

Let’s break it down:

Corporate income rose last year.
Provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill allowed corporations to take larger deductions.
Corporate tax revenue fell 16 percent year-on-year despite rising corporate income.

On a side note, there's an unspoken assumption baked into this argument – that corporate income would still increase absent the tax cuts. However, tax cuts tend to stimulate economic activity. Tax relief may well have stimulated business and increased corporate income. In other words, the tax cuts weren't all bad. While the Trump tax cuts may have squeezed revenue through more deductions and lower tax rates, they may have also boosted revenue through economic growth. You would need an in-depth economic study to determine the net impact.

But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that Werschkul’s spin is correct and revenue was 16 percent lower than it otherwise would have been. Did that cause a massive budget deficit?

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To be fair, that’s not the only factor Werschkul considered. He noted the tariff debacle squeezed federal revenue after the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s edicts unconstitutional.

“This turnabout in tariffs led to a deficit approximately $140 billion higher than projections from just a few months ago.”

That’s it. That completes Werschkul’s analysis of federal revenue.

Given this information, what would you conclude?

It’s pretty obvious that the federal government had a big revenue problem because Trump is a big dummy.

But Werschkul left something out of his reporting.

While he mentions how much revenue the federal government collected last year ($5.4 trillion) in the first paragraph, he never puts it into any context. He fails to compare this year's receipts to last year.

In fact, the federal government collected 3.2 percent more than it collected in 2025.

Wait. What?

Isn’t that at least a little bit relevant here?

When you read Werschkul’s article, you almost certainly come away thinking the federal government ran a bigger deficit because it collected less money. After all, Trump cut taxes. However, even with tax cuts, federal revenue grew!

And by the way, U.S. federal receipts climbed 6 percent in 2025, and 11 percent in 2024.

This is not a revenue problem.

It’s a spending problem.

Federal outlays grew by 5.5 percent in 2026.

For the life of me, I can’t figure out how a veteran reporter left out the fact that revenue increased while creating the impression that it fell. I’ll let you speculate on the reasons.

I do have one caveat.

This may not be Ben’s fault.

He may have included the revenue information, and the editor cut it out. If that’s the case, the editor is just really bad at his job or has an agenda to advance.

I should also note that Werschkul probably didn’t write the misleading “Revenue downturn” subheading. Copyeditors generally write headlines, not reporters.

But let me reiterate, this is an egregious subheading. There was no overall revenue downturn. Revenue was up. If an editor inserted something like that into my story, I would throw a royal fit.

Why?

Because it’s not true.

Consider the ramifications.

Thousands, if not millions, of people read this article. They now believe federal revenue was down last year.

This is a great example of media bias at work. Ben didn’t write anything untrue (The awful subheading he probably didn’t write notwithstanding). He merely left out relevant information. Call it a sin of omission.

But this kind of stuff shapes thinking, and you need to be aware of it. You would be wise to read stories from multiple sources, including those that may not confirm your point of view.

Former Fed Insider Selling Bank Stocks and Buying Gold

Tue, 20 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

A former Fed insider has sold all his bank stocks, and he’s piling money into gold.

Christopher Whalen has worked for over three decades as a writer and financial analyst in Washington, along with a stint as a researcher at the New York Fed. Whalen also held various positions at Bear, Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. He currently serves as Whalen Global Advisors chairman.

During a Kitco News interview, Whalen said he recently sold all of his bank stock.

“I actually put a couple of short positions down on some consumer lenders because I think credit is going to go up in terms of expenses. And I emphasized precious metals, energy stocks, and also income.”

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Whalen predicted lean times for lenders, as credit prices (interest rates) climb.

“Bank earnings and credit, those are the two immutable concepts in banking. When credit costs go up, earnings go down, and bank stocks suffer accordingly.”

He also warned that we will soon see “higher consumer delinquency” as massive borrowing over the last few years catches up with American households.

In fact, LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Index indicates https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/16/financial-stress-at-levels-not-seen-since-the-pandemic-005300";>American financial stress has reached pandemic-era levels.

So, what has Whalen replaced his bank stocks with?

Gold.

Whalen said he’s taken advantage of the “softness in gold and silver in the first half of this year” to add to his positions.

He called precious metals an “asymmetric trade” with far more upside potential than risk. He noted the ongoing debasement trade, saying he thinks it will continue.

“The global central banks are continuing to shift away from dollars, shift towards gold, and to a lesser extent silver, simply because they want an independent reserve asset that is not controlled by another country.”

Whalen said he doesn’t think the dollar is in any danger of losing its reserve currency status.

“But I do think that the dollar is going to be competing with other fiat currencies.”

As I have noted many times, even a modest https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization spells trouble for the U.S. economy. The federal government depends on global demand for dollars to absorb its money creation and support its borrowing and spending. If the world needs fewer dollars, they will flow back to the U.S., creating additional inflationary pressure.

Whalen called gold “a measure of inflation.” He noted that Andrew Jackson’s face is on the $20 bill and urged listeners to consider what that $20 buys today.

“He would not be happy, I’m telling you.”

As for the Federal Reserve, Whalen said he doesn’t think the central bank wants to hike rates any further, and he believes a slowing economy will force a rate cut as early as Q1 2027. He also thinks the Fed will relaunch https://youtu.be/ipaQAgOCJBk";>quantitative easing (QE) to support the bond market and drive down the federal government's borrowing costs.

“I think the Fed will have to print. In other words, they will have to start buying Treasury securities again the way they did during and immediately after COVID.”

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He noted that we are already “very familiar” with this kind of debt monetization, pointing out that the central bank bought $10 trillion in securities between 2008 and the end of the pandemic era.

“Essentially, they forgave the debt. And what happened was, the banking system grew. That’s where the inflation is. Deposits grow. Assets grow. And the system gets bigger.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. national debt grows as well. The Trump administration ran https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/19/trump-administration-runs-third-largest-federal-budget-deficit-in-history-005303";>the third-largest budget deficit in history in fiscal 2026. Whalen warned that the U.S. is in “a very tenuous situation.” However, nobody in Washington, including at the Fed, wants to talk about the deteriorating fiscal situation.

“We’re kind of in a daydream. It’s like we’re having a nice nap, and we’re not even worried about anything that’s remotely important.”

Whalen emphasized that hard assets, including gold and silver, are a way people can protect themselves.

“You know that the government is going to continue to spend, and that eventually, the central bank is going to have to inflate the currency.”

How Much Does a Silver Bar Weigh - Silver Bar Weight Chart From 1 Gram to 1,000 oz in Pounds and Kilos - Kitchen Scale Readings and Good Delivery Bar Tolerances - Money Metals

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Silver bars are not produced in a single standard weight or size. Refiners and mints offer bars in a range of weights. They can be as small as a single gram or as large as 1,000 ounce bars that are stored in institutional vaults.

Most private investors choose products that fall somewhere in between, such as 1 oz, 10 oz, kilo, or 100 oz bars.

Measurements can also present confusion about bar sizes. Many newcomers to precious metals see “ounces” and assume silver is measured like the ounces on their kitchen scales. However, precious metals are measured in troy ounces, which are approximately 10% heavier. That difference explains why a new bar can appear “overweight” if you measure it at home.

This guide lists the exact weight of every common bar size. We also discuss what a household scale should display and explain how to confirm that a bar’s dimensions and weight are consistent.

Quick Answer: How Much Does a Silver Bar Weigh?

1 oz bar: 31.10 grams
10 oz bar: 311.03 grams (0.69 pounds)
Kilo bar: 32.15 troy ounces (2.20 pounds)
100 oz bar: 3.11 kilograms (6.86 pounds)
1,000 oz bar: 31.10 kilograms (68.57 pounds) on paper, although real bars can weigh anywhere from 900 to 1,100 troy ounces

Silver Bar Weight Chart: Every Size in Troy Ounces, Grams, and Pounds

The chart below converts each common bar size into three units of measurement: troy ounces, grams, and pounds. The final column shows what an ordinary kitchen or postal scale should display, because those scales measure in standard ounces.

Every figure was calculated from the official conversion factors published in https://www.nist.gov/document/2026-nist-handbook-44-appendix-c";>NIST Handbook 44, Appendix C, which defines one troy ounce as 31.1034768 grams and one pound as 453.59237 grams.

Bar Size	Troy Ounces	Grams	Pounds	Kitchen Scale Reads
1 gram	0.03	1	0.002	0.04 oz
5 gram	0.16	5	0.011	0.18 oz
10 gram	0.32	10	0.022	0.35 oz
1 oz	1	31.10	0.069	1.10 oz
100 gram	3.22	100	0.220	3.53 oz
5 oz	5	155.52	0.343	5.49 oz
250 gram	8.04	250	0.551	8.82 oz
10 oz	10	311.03	0.686	10.97 oz
1 lb	14.58	453.59	1.000	1 lb 0.0 oz
500 gram	16.08	500	1.102	1 lb 1.6 oz
1 kilo	32.15	1,000	2.205	2 lb 3.3 oz
50 oz	50	1,555.17	3.429	3 lb 6.9 oz
100 oz	100	3,110.35	6.857	6 lb 13.7 oz
5 kilo	160.75	5,000	11.023	11 lb 0.4 oz
1,000 oz	1,000	31,103.48	68.571	68 lb 9.1 oz

Several sizes regularly confuse new buyers, particularly the metric and pound-based bars. A kilo bar contains 32.15 troy ounces, which makes it considerably lighter than a 100 oz bar, and our guide to https://www.moneymetals.com/measurement/how-many-troy-ounces-in-a-kilo";>how many troy ounces are in a kilo explains that conversion step by step.

A bar sold as “1 lb” contains one standard pound of silver. That equals 14.58 troy ounces of silver.

Troy Ounces vs Kitchen-Scale Ounces

Why a Troy Ounce Is Heavier

Gold, silver, and other precious metals are measured in troy ounces. One troy ounce equals 31.1035 grams. This is different from the typical ounce, which is officially called the avoirdupois ounce, equals only 28.3495 grams. That is the ounce used for everyday measurements like food and postage.

This difference means that one troy ounce is equivalent to about 1.097 standard ounces, a difference of approximately 9.7% (https://www.nist.gov/document/2026-nist-handbook-44-appendix-c";>NIST Handbook 44, Appendix C). That difference seems minor on a single coin or bar, but it grows quickly with larger sizes: on a typical kitchen scale, a 100 oz bar registers almost 110 ounces.

Why Your 10 oz Bar Weighs 11 Ounces

This is one of the most common questions from first-time silver buyers. Usually, it has an innocent explanation.

One https://www.reddit.com/r/Gold/comments/1pnhd52/why_does_10_oz_bar_weigh_11_ounces/";>Reddit user asked why a 10 oz bar weighed 11 ounces on a home scale. The explanation turned out to be simple: the scale was set to standard ounces rather than troy ounces.

In other words, a bar that reads slightly “heavy” on a kitchen scale is usually exactly what it claims to be. Typical bar sizes will display the following measurements when measured in standard ounces and pounds:

1 oz bar: 1.10 oz
10 oz bar: 10.97 oz
Kilo bar: 2 lb 3.3 oz
100 oz bar: 6 lb 13.7 oz

For the most reliable comparison, switch your scale to grams. Many jewelry scales include a troy ounce setting, which is often labeled “ozt.”

What "1 lb" Means on a Silver Bar

Pounds create the same type of confusion, particularly for buyers who are accustomed to everyday household measurements. When a silver bar’s weight is listed in pounds, it refers to the standard pound, which equals 14.58 troy ounces (https://www.nist.gov/document/2026-nist-handbook-44-appendix-c";>NIST Handbook 44, Appendix C).

That is why a 100 oz bar weighs 6.86 pounds rather than the 6.25 pounds you would get by simply dividing 100 by 16.

Why a Silver Bar Can Weigh More or Less Than Its Label

Poured Bars Often Run Slightly Heavy

Poured bars, also called cast bars, are produced by pouring molten silver into a mold. Because it is difficult to hit an exact weight with that method, small variations are normal, and collectors have noticed the pattern. On the Collectors Universe forum, one member observed that “the poured Engelhard 10 oz bars always seem to be https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/782062/do-you-guys-who-buy-bars-weigh-them-on-a-routine-basis";>several grams on the heavy side.”

Minted bars follow a different process. These bars are cut from flat sheets of silver and then stamped, which produces a cleaner shape and a more precise weight. Our https://www.moneymetals.com/measurement/how-much-does-a-gold-bar-weigh";>gold bar weight guide goes into more detail about cast and minted bar differences; the same manufacturing methods apply to silver.

Watch for Bars Labeled in Standard Ounces

Occasionally, a seller labels a bar in standard ounces instead of troy ounces. https://nationwidecoins.com/news/8-facts-you-need-to-know-about-10-oz-silver-bars/";>Nationwide Coin warns that “shadier sellers” sometimes try to pass off a standard ounce as a troy ounce.

A bar containing 10 standard ounces of silver holds only 9.11 troy ounces. As a result, the buyer receives almost a full troy ounce less than expected.

Before you buy, examine the stamp carefully. Most bullion bars are https://www.moneymetals.com/1-oz-generic-silver-bar/153";>stamped with their weight and purity, such as “10 troy oz .999 fine silver.” If you do not see a measurement that specifies troy ounces, ask the seller to confirm the weight.

The 1,000 oz Silver Bar Isn't Exactly 1,000 Ounces

The largest standard silver bar is the 1,000 oz “Good Delivery” bar. Financial institutions, such as banks, vaults, and futures exchanges, use these bars to settle large trades. The bar’s name describes a target weight rather than an exact figure.

The https://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/good-delivery-rules/technical-specifications";>London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) sets the specifications for these bars. Under its rules, a 1,000 oz bar may weigh 10% more or less than its nominal weight.

That means an acceptable bar can weigh anywhere from 900 to 1,100 troy ounces, or roughly 61.7 to 75.4 pounds. Bars produced before January 1, 2025 were allowed a wider range of 750 to 1,100 troy ounces. Bars produced before 2008 could weigh between 500 and 1,250 troy ounces.

The LBMA specifications also include these requirements:

Purity: a minimum fineness of 999.0 parts per thousand silver
Weight: recorded in increments of 0.10 troy ounce and always rounded down
Dimensions: a top length of 300 mm, a top width of 130 mm, and a height of 80 mm, each with a permitted tolerance (approximately 11.8 by 5.1 by 3.1 inches at the midpoint)

In the United States, the https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/COMEX/1a/112.pdf";>COMEX silver futures contract follows the same principle. Each contract covers 5,000 troy ounces, delivered as five bars of 1,000 troy ounces each. Every bar may be 10% heavier or lighter as long as the silver is at least 999 fine.

Consequently, when https://www.moneymetals.com/1000-oz-silver-bars/148";>you buy a 1,000 oz bar, you pay for its actual weight rather than the number in its name. At Money Metals, 1,000 oz silver bars are priced per ounce, and because these bars are difficult to ship safely, they remain in an approved depository under segregated storage.

To calculate the pure silver content of a large bar, multiply its recorded weight by its purity. For example, a 1,012.4 oz bar that is .999 fine contains about 1,011.4 troy ounces of pure silver.

How Big Is a Silver Bar? Size, Density, and Shape

Most retail silver bars do not have standard dimensions. Each mint or refinery chooses and follows its own design. As a result, two 10 oz bars from different refineries can look significantly different.

As an example, the https://www.moneymetals.com/money-metals-design-silver-bar-10-ounce-999-pure/1299";>Money Metals Design 10 oz silver bar measures 89.88 by 45.72 by 7.62 millimeters. Measured in inches, that makes it roughly 3.5 by 1.8 by 0.3 inches. Other https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/10-oz-silver-bars";>10 oz silver bars use different shapes.

Although the shape can change, the amount of space the silver occupies cannot. Silver has a density of approximately 10.5 grams per cubic centimeter (https://www.lanl.gov/science-engineering/periodic-table/element/silver";>Los Alamos National Laboratory), which determines the volume of every bar regardless of its design:

Bar Size	Volume of Silver
1 oz	2.96 cm³ (0.18 cubic inches)
10 oz	29.6 cm³ (1.81 cubic inches)
Kilo	95.2 cm³ (5.81 cubic inches)
100 oz	296 cm³ (18.1 cubic inches)
1,000 oz	2,961 cm³ (181 cubic inches)

This relationship provides a useful verification for any bar you own or plan to buy. If you multiply a bar’s length, width, and thickness, the result should land close to the above figure. It will often be a little higher because of rounded edges and stamped designs.

For example, the Money Metals 10 oz bar calculates to roughly 31 cm³. That is within 6% of the 29.6 cm³ of silver it actually contains.

When a listing’s measurements are far from these figures, something is wrong with either the listing or the bar. Suppose a seller describes a 100 oz bar as 4 by 2 by 0.5 inches: that calculates to only 4 cubic inches. That is enough space for about 22 troy ounces of silver, but it certainly would not fit a 100 oz bar.

Silver Bars vs Gold Bars of the Same Weight

Gold is considerably denser than silver, at about 19.3 grams per cubic centimeter (https://www.lanl.gov/science-engineering/periodic-table/element/gold";>Los Alamos National Laboratory). As a result, a silver bar is approximately 1.84 times larger than a gold bar of identical weight, so a 1 oz silver bar is nearly twice the size of a 1 oz gold bar. For the gold comparison, see https://www.moneymetals.com/measurement/how-much-does-a-gold-bar-weigh";>how much a gold bar weighs.

How to Check a Silver Bar's Weight at Home

It’s fairly straightforward to perform a basic inspection on your own. For most bars, you can do a sufficient check with a digital scale and ruler, or else a set of calipers.

Weigh the bar in grams. Grams eliminate the confusion between troy and standard ounces. You can compare your reading directly to the chart above.
Expect small variations. Poured bars may weigh a few grams over their stated weight, but a bar that is clearly underweight deserves closer inspection.
Measure the dimensions. Multiply the length, width, and thickness, then compare the result to the volume table.
Inspect the stamp. Look for the weight, the purity (such as .999), and the name of the manufacturer.
Combine several tests. Weight alone cannot prove a bar is genuine. For example, copper has a density of roughly 8.9 grams per cubic centimeter (https://www.lanl.gov/science-engineering/periodic-table/element/copper";>Los Alamos National Laboratory). Counterfeiters often use copper cores in counterfeits that they coat with a layer of silver. However, to get the right weight, the copper bar is roughly 18% larger than the real silver. That is why size and weight together reveal more than either measurement alone.

You can learn more about silver verification methods on our https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/how-to-test-gold-and-silver-at-home";>how to test gold and silver at home page.

What a Silver Bar Is Worth by Weight

Governments can print paper currency at will. In contrast, a silver bar’s value rests on something you can measure on a scale. Its metal value, otherwise known as its melt value, depends on its weight and the current silver spot price. Because spot is quoted per troy ounce, convert the bar’s weight to troy ounces first.

Check today's https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver spot price, then apply the formula that matches your bar:

Troy ounce bars: troy ounces × spot price
Gram bars: grams ÷ 31.1035 × spot price
1 lb bars: 14.58 × spot price
1,000 oz bars: recorded weight × purity × spot price

For example, a 100 oz bar contains silver worth 100 times the spot price, and a 1 lb bar contains silver worth 14.58 times the spot price.

Melt value is not the same as the purchase price, because dealers add a premium over spot to cover the cost of manufacturing, shipping, and handling each bar, and larger bars usually carry a lower premium per ounce than smaller ones. Our guide to the https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/best-silver-bars-to-buy";>best silver bars to buy compares premiums by size. This article provides general information and is not investment advice.

Choosing a Silver Bar Weight

Weight affects more than price, because it also determines how easily you can store, transport, and eventually sell a bar. A 100 oz bar weighs almost 7 pounds, which makes it convenient to store, but you cannot sell part of it.

A 1,000 oz bar weighs about 68.6 pounds and typically remains in a vault. Smaller bars may cost a little more per ounce, but they allow you to sell only a few pieces when you need cash.

Remember one additional fact when you plan for storage or shipping: one thousand troy ounces of silver weighs 68.57 pounds in any form. That is true whether it is a single large bar or a thousand 1 oz bars, not including packaging. The total weight of a stack depends on its ounces, not the number of pieces.

Ready to compare sizes? Browse https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/1-oz-silver-bars";>1 oz, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/5-oz-silver-bars";>5 oz, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/10-oz-silver-bars";>10 oz, https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/kilo-silver-bars";>kilo, and https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars/100-oz-silver-bars";>100 oz silver bars, or view every size on our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/bars";>silver bars page.

Frequently Asked Questions

No. A kilo bar contains 32.15 troy ounces, while a 100 oz bar contains 100 troy ounces, so the 100 oz bar weighs about three times as much (6.86 pounds compared with 2.20 pounds).

A 10 oz silver bar weighs 311.03 grams. On a kitchen scale set to standard ounces, it should display about 10.97 ounces.

A 100 oz silver bar weighs 6.86 pounds, which appears as about 6 pounds 13.7 ounces on a kitchen scale.

A 1 lb silver bar contains 14.58 troy ounces, or 453.59 grams of silver.

LBMA specifications allow a top length of 250 to 350 mm, a top width of 110 to 150 mm, and a height of 60 to 100 mm. At the midpoint of that range, a bar measures approximately 11.8 by 5.1 by 3.1 inches, and at exactly 1,000 troy ounces it weighs 68.57 pounds.

Yes. Gold is about 1.84 times as dense as silver, so a gold bar with the same dimensions as a silver bar weighs about 1.84 times as much.

Inflation Heats Up. Silver Sinks. What Is the Market Telling Us?

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Price inflation is accelerating again, yet gold and silver have been struggling. Gold slipped about 0.7% last week to $4,166 an ounce. Silver took a much harder hit, falling https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>roughly 6.5% to $57.

For investors who own precious metals to protect against declining purchasing power, that can seem backward.

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The explanation starts with what traders expect the Federal Reserve to do next. Hotter inflation raises the prospect of higher interest rates, which can pull money away from non-interest-paying assets such as bullion.

But last week came with a complication: Treasury yields and the dollar actually declined. Even that relief was not enough to keep metals from finishing lower.

Silver showed some early improvement Monday morning, reaching $58.

Buyers are testing the waters after last week’s decline. A morning bounce alone does not establish that the selling has run its course.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh offered little reassurance about the path of interest rates in remarks Friday. He emphasized price stability but declined to signal what the Fed would do at its October or December meetings.

Traders increasingly expect another rate increase by December. That leaves investors facing the possibility of tighter credit even as parts of the economy show strain.

Silver is especially vulnerable to that combination. It is a monetary metal, but it is also an industrial material. When investors worry that expensive energy and tighter credit will squeeze manufacturers and consumers, silver can suffer from both directions.

Energy remains a major complication. Brent crude rose nearly 5% last week to about $110 a barrel as attacks on commercial shipping and tensions around Iran and Yemen renewed supply concerns.

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Meanwhile, attacks on refineries combined with logistical complications have driven diesel over $200 per barrel.

Higher energy prices across the global economy can create an awkward environment for precious metals.

Geopolitical danger encourages defensive buying, while rising fuel costs can reinforce expectations of Fed tightening.

For silver, the additional threat to industrial activity makes the trade-off even more difficult.

But we are seeing an increase in physical buying of gold and silver – thanks to the lower prices, too. Especially with the lowest retail premiums on coins, bars, and rounds in over a year.

Trump Administration Runs Third-Largest Federal Budget Deficit in History

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

You can add spending cuts, DOGE, and fixing the budget with tariffs to the mountain of broken promises dominating the Washington, D.C. skyline.

The Trump administration just ran the biggest budget deficit in five years.

The final fiscal 2026 budget shortfall came in at $1.99 trillion. That was 12 percent higher than last year’s $1.78 trillion budget deficit.

It was the third-highest budget deficit in history. The only higher shortfalls came in 2020 and 2021 when the government shut down the economy for a virus and showered the citizenry with stimulus.

Keep in mind that the federal government ran $1 trillion deficits for the first time during the Obama administration, during the Great Recession. Today, we’re seeing $2 trillion deficits, even with the economy supposedly expanding.

It’s a Spending Problem

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Democrats like to blame deficits on tax cuts, and the CBO estimates corporate taxes were 16 percent lower thanks to cuts in the "Big Beautiful Bill that "offset the increases in those receipts that otherwise would have been expected, given the rise in corporate income." (One might argue that the rise in corporate income was a function of those tax cuts.)

However, with this decline in potential revenues, Uncle Sam still had a pretty good year in 2026. The government collected $5.4 trillion in revenue. That was a 3.22 percent increase over the previous year.

In fact, the federal government has enjoyed strong revenue growth for three straight years. Receipts in 2025 were 6 percent higher than 2024, an 11-percent increase over 2023.

Tariff revenue helped boost overall receipts. The federal government collected $317.8 billion in import duties. However, it had to refund $144.6 billion after the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s unilateral tariffs unconstitutional.

The problem is on the spending side of the ledger.

The Trump administration blew through nearly $7.4 trillion in fiscal 2026. To put that into context, that's roughly $20.3 billion per day.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/fiscal-26-revenue-and-spending.png"; width="700" height="400" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Spending was up 5.5 percent over the prior year.

A 5.5 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?

In fact, the Big Beautiful Bill featured some spending cuts (along with spending increases).

Overall federal spending surged despite cuts to the EPA, the Department of Education, and USAID, along with staffing reductions throughout the federal government. Lower disaster spending also helped moderate spending levels through the first two months of fiscal ’26.

And now there's a war.

This is par for the course.

You might recall that President Biden promised the [pretend] spending cuts would save “hundreds of billions” with the debt ceiling deal (aka the [misnamed] Fiscal Responsibility Act).

That never happened.

Despite some non-specific talk about “spending cuts,” there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas.

The Cost of the Debt

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As the government borrows more to cover the budget shortfall, the cost of servicing the debt climbs in this higher-interest rate environment.

Interest expense has grown into the second-largest spending category in the federal budget behind only Social Security.

The Treasury forked out $1.36 trillion in interest payments alone in fiscal 2026. That was an 11.5 percent increase over last year.

Net interest (interest expense – interest receipts) was $1.1trillion.

In fiscal 2026, the federal government spent more on interest on the debt than it did on national defense ($965 billion) or Medicare ($1.1 trillion). The only higher spending category is Social Security ($1.7 trillion).

When people say the spending is unsustainable, it feels like an understatement. In fact, it’s fair to call https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/26/the-us-government-is-insolvent-yes-that-matters-004791";>the federal government insolvent.

However, very few people in the political class seem the least bit interested in tackling the problem. The bad news is that at some point, the problem will tackle them.

Who Cares About Deficits?

Stories about budget deficits and the ever-growing national debt tend to elicit gasps of shock followed by shrugs. Nobody really seems to care.

In fact, a lot of people act like massive budget deficits don’t matter. However, as the Bipartisan Policy Center pointed out after last year’s big budget shortfall, the growing national debt and the mounting fiscal irresponsibility undermine the dollar.

“Confidence in U.S. creditworthiness may be undermined by a rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation, an increasing concern with federal debt set to grow substantially in the coming years.”

This could lead to slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and less investment wealth.

A lack of confidence in the U.S. fiscal situation could also reduce demand for U.S. debt. This would force Treasury yields even higher to attract investors.

We’re seeing that today with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/10/04/debasement-trade-supporting-gold-even-as-yields-spike-005265";>yields at levels not seen since 2001.

It’s easy to frame this as a “Trump problem” because he’s the guy in office right now. However, fiscal malfeasance is a bipartisan sport. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/11/11/presidents-and-debt-the-worst-of-the-worst-003602";>Every president since Calvin Coolidge has left the U.S. with a bigger national debt than when he took office.

The bottom line is the U.S. government has a spending problem it won’t address. No matter what the politicians in D.C. claim, there is no way to fix the budget problem by shoveling more money into the hole with tariffs, much less replacing the IRS.

The rest of the world is paying attention.

India Gold Market Flips to Premium as Demand Improves and Supplies Tighten

Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold traded at a premium in India last week for the first time in three months. This reflects the combined effect of tightening supply and improving demand.

Dealers reported premiums as high as $7 an ounce over domestic spot prices. That compares with discounts in the $5-to-$6 range the previous week.

Indian gold demand has improved as prices fell even as the festive buying season kicked off.

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During the first week of October, Indian gold prices fell to ₹145,538 per 10 grams, the lowest level in nearly two months. According to the Times of India, “The correction brought more buyers into the market compared with the previous week and also resulted in sellers offering smaller discounts.”

The falling price coincided with the beginning of the festive season in September. This is considered an auspicious time to buy gold. The festival season starts in September, building into Navratri (Oct. 11), and peaking around Dhanteras (Nov. 6) and Diwali (Nov. 8). Buying typically continues into the winter wedding season.

On the supply side, Indian gold imports plunged by 45 percent in August and slumped again in September, falling from $2.3 billion to $1.8 billion according to preliminary data.

Imports typically pick up in late summer as dealers stock up on metal for the fall buying season. However, the government has aggressively tried to curb imports.

The Indian government https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/13/india-hikes-gold-and-silver-import-duties-to-support-rupee-004917";>announced the 9 percent duty increase in May. The change pushed the import tax on gold and silver from 6 to 15 percent. The move came as India struggled with a surging trade deficit that is pressuring its currency.

Oil accounts for around 22 percent of the nation's imports. The sudden spike in oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran war has hit India particularly hard. The country imports nearly 85 percent of its fuel, and about 50 percent of its crude imports flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

With both gold and oil prices spiking, India’s import bill has exploded. The country’s merchandise trade deficit topped $330 billion in the financial year ending March 2026. That was up from over $280 billion a year ago, a 17.9 percent increase.

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The trade situation has put significant downward pressure on the rupee.

Gold and silver make up about 11 percent of India’s imports. The government raised import duties, hoping to limit metal flowing into the country. This will theoretically close that massive trade deficit and support the rupee.

So far, the move has proved effective, but it’s starting to create shortages of metal within the country.

More recently, several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices suspending bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-mutual-funds-stop-bulk-subscriptions-gold-etfs-ahead-festive-season-2026-10-15/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to Reuters, “The decision was taken following a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India.”

While government intervention can limit imports, it’s unlikely to curb Indian’s appetite for gold.

When the government announced the import duty increase, Metals Focus pointed out that Indian gold and silver demand has historically remained resilient in a higher-tax environment. This reflects Indians' deep cultural connection to precious metals and their value as a store of wealth. As the rupee continues to depreciate, gold will become increasingly attractive.

According to Metals Focus analysts, “Consumers often delay purchases initially following sharp price increases but typically adjust to higher price levels over time. In addition, elevated duties could encourage a recovery in unofficial flows, which had collapsed following the 2024 duty reduction.”

That’s reflected in resilient festival season demand despite higher prices.

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Does a gold bar weigh more than a silver bar of the same size? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

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India Gold Market Flips to Premium as Demand Improves and Supplies Tighten