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What Is a Mint Mark? Coin Mint Marks Explained for Collectors - Money Metals

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Some coins look identical at first glance. That makes it surprising when one has a drastically higher value than the other. Perhaps most surprising at all, that difference often comes down to one small detail most people overlook: the mint mark.

So, what is a mint mark? More importantly, why does it matter so much?

A mint mark is a small letter or symbol on a coin that shows where it was produced. Although it’s an easy feature to miss, it can play a crucial role in determining a coin’s rarity, history, and market value.

In this guide, you’ll learn how to identify mint marks, where to find them, and how they can impact both collectors and precious metals investors.

What Is a Mint Mark?

A mint mark is a small letter or symbol on a coin that shows where it was made. In the United States, mint marks identify facilities such as Denver (D), San Francisco (S), and West Point (W). Some coins, especially older ones from Philadelphia, do not have mint marks.

Why Mint Marks Matter to Collectors and Investors

Understanding what a mint mark is becomes important once you realize how much it can influence a coin’s rarity and value. Coins struck at different U.S. Mint facilities often have vastly different production totals. Lower mintage numbers typically mean fewer surviving coins today, which can drive higher demand among collectors.

This creates a classic supply-and-demand dynamic. A coin from a high-output mint like Denver may be common, while the same coin from the San Francisco Mint or a limited West Point release could be far scarcer. Even coins that share the same design, metal content, and year can have significantly different prices based on their mint mark.

For example, the 1916-D Mercury Dime is a highly valuable dime on the numismatic market. That year, the Denver Mint did not produce many Mercury Dimes, making it a rarer series of coins. Coins with a “D” mint mark are significantly more valuable than other 1916 Mercury Dimes.

So, don’t make the mistake of thinking mint marks are just for identification. They are essential for determining a coin’s rarity and numismatic value.

Where to Find Mint Marks on Coins

Mint marks are easy to find when you know where to look. But, a coin’s age and type might change where the mint mark is.

U.S. Coins (Modern)

On most modern U.S. coins, the mint mark is located on the obverse (front) of the coin, near the date of the portrait. For example, a Roosevelt dime or Washington quarter, you will usually find the mint mark just to the right of the year.

Pennies usually display the mint mark below the date. Nickels, in contrast, place it near Jefferson’s portrait.

Older coins sometimes did not show a mint mark, particularly for coins that came from the Philadelphia mint. Since the 1980s, mint marks have been consistently included on nearly all circulating coins. These marks make it easy to identify a coin series with the naked eye.

Older U.S. Coins

Older coins can be less consistent. Prior to 1965, mint marks were placed on the back of a coin (its reverse side). For example, older Jefferson nickels feature the mint mark on the reverse side, near Monticello.

It’s also important to note that many coins struck at the Philadelphia Mint historically had no mint mark at all. Always check both sides of older coins when identifying their origin.

Gold & Silver Bullion Coins

Mint marks are not as common when it comes to bullion coins. Most widely traded bullion coins, including legal tender coins like the American Gold Eagle and the Silver Eagle, do not carry mint marks in their standard bullion versions.

However, proof and special edition coins often include a mint mark. These https://www.moneymetals.com/2006-20th-anniversary-silver-eagle-3-coin-set/2338";>coins include proof Silver Eagles, proof Half Dollars, proof quarters, and others. These distinctions matter because proof coins usually carry higher premiums.

They also tend to be rarer; fewer of them enter into production than standard clad currency. That makes their mint marks more relevant to collectors than investors focused purely on metal content.

List of U.S. Mint Marks and Their Meanings

Understanding what mint marks are and how they work can be tricky. It helps to know the major U.S. Mint facilities and the symbols they use.

Each mint mark represents a location where coins are produced. These different branches of the mint often have different production volumes for coin series. Some focus on circulating coins, such as clad quarters and nickels. Below is a quick reference table that lists the most common U.S. mint marks:

Mint Mark	Mint Location	Notes
P	Philadelphia	No mint mark used on most coins before 1980
D	Denver	One of the highest-volume production mints
S	San Francisco	Primarily produces proof coins today
W	West Point	Used for bullion and special collector issues
O	New Orleans	Historic mint (closed in 1909)
CC	Carson City	Highly collectible, limited historical mintage

Do All Coins Have Mint Marks?

Not all coins have mint marks, which often confuses beginners who are just learning about the numismatics world. Until relatively recently, coins produced at the Philadelphia Mint did not include a mint mark. If you find an older coin with a blank space where the mint mark would be, that normally indicates Philadelphia origin. It does not typically signify a missing feature.

Over time, the standard changed. Today, most U.S. coins carry a “P” mint mark, signifying their Philadelphia origin. In 1980, Congress began minting this mark on Philadelphia coins; since it is the primary mint in the country, most coins bear its engraving.

Foreign coins follow their own systems. Other countries tend to use differing symbols or else do not bother with mint marks at all. Sometimes, identifying foreign coins can be a difficult task, requiring more detailed knowledge of their design variations.

How Mint Marks Affect Coin Value

To understand what a mint mark is from an investment point of view, you must focus on mintage numbers and collector demand.

Each U.S. Mint facility produces a different number of coins each year. The production totals are known as mintages.

Mintage has a direct influence on how scarce a coin is in the marketplace. Generally, lower mintage leads to higher potential value. This truism assumes, of course, that there is some collector demand for the coin.

Collector demand amplifies the potential value. Many collectors want complete sets of coin series, including all various dates and mint marks. For example, let’s say someone is collecting a https://www.moneymetals.com/pre-1965-walking-liberty-half-dollars-90-silver-715-oz-of-silver-for-every-1-face-value/599";>1922 Liberty Half Dollar series. They won’t just want a single iteration of the coin; they will want one coin from every mint that produced it.

If there’s a small supply of one of those mint versions, it becomes a “key date” and commands higher premiums.

Note the crucial distinction here between these coins and bullion coins: it’s not the metal content that gives these coins their value. Rather, their value derives from availability and demand.

Mint marks can also influence resale value, especially when it comes to collectible or semi-numismatic coins. That makes mint marks essential for collectors. In both cases, mint marks help determine whether a coin is standard or valuable.

Rare and Valuable Mint Mark Errors

Mint mark errors are a fun aspect of the numismatics market. They are an anomaly that comes from mistakes in the minting process, which means they are produced in very small quantities. That means they are not only a fun quirk; they can also be highly valuable.

One of the more well-known errors is the missing mint mark. In some rare instances, coins that were meant to have a mint mark do not receive one due to a die error. These coins can generate robust premiums because they deviate from the standard production.

Another category includes double or overpunched mint marks. Sometimes, a mint mark gets stamped onto a coin more than once. Or, on other occasions, one mint mark may get struck over another. These result in double or overpunched mint marks, respectively.

Collectors love these coins because they each present a unique production mistake. The scarcity of these coins, along with their collector appeal, is where their value comes from.

Unlike standard coins, mint mark errors are not intentionally produced, and many are discovered only after entering circulation. Collectors see them as a way to own something truly unusual, and often at a significant premium compared to standard issues.

Mint Marks on Gold and Silver Coins

When learning what a mint mark is, it’s important to understand how they apply differently to gold and silver coins. That is especially important for bullion coins versus proof issues.

Most bullion coins, such as American Gold Eagles and Silver Eagles, do not carry mint marks in their standard versions. In many ways, that does not matter. Bullion coins do not gain their value from rare editions or unusual distinctives; their value comes entirely from their precious metals content. For that reason, the U.S. Mint does not emphasize their origin in the same way as it does for numismatics coins.

Proof and special edition coins function differently. The Mint strikes these with greater precision, lower mintages, and are intended for collectors. As a result, they typically include a mint mark. The most common one is the West Point “W”, since West Point serves as the chief facility for producing modern U.S. gold and silver proofs.

For investors, the presence or absence of a mint mark can signal whether a coin carries a higher premium. Bullion coins without mint marks tend to trade closer to spot price, while proof coins with mint marks often command significantly higher prices due to their limited production and collector demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does no mint mark mean?

If a coin has no mint mark, it was most likely produced at the Philadelphia Mint. This is especially true for coins made before the 1980s. This is a normal feature and should not be mistaken for an error; it is common for many older U.S. coins.

Which mint mark is most valuable?

There is no single “most valuable” mint mark. Typically, a mint mark becomes valuable based on the scarcity of a particular series. Overall, value depends on the coin’s year, type, and mintage. However, marks like “CC” (Carson City) or certain low-mintage “S” coins are often highly sought after by collectors.

Where is the mint mark on a quarter?

On modern Washington quarters, the mint mark is located on the obverse (front) of the coin, just to the right of George Washington’s portrait and near the date. Older quarters may have it on the reverse.

Do mint marks affect gold coin prices?

For standard bullion coins, mint marks are usually not a factor in their value. Bullion items derive their value from their precious metals content, not their numismatic qualities. However, proof or limited-edition coins with mint marks can carry higher premiums due to collector demand.

Why Mint Marks Still Matter Today

It’s one thing to ask "What is a mint mark?" Now that you know what a mint mark is, though, you can start identifying coins with confidence.

Knowing what a mint mark gives you a clear edge, whether you’re building a coin collection or investing in precious metals. These small letters convey crucial information about a coin’s origin, rarity, and potential value.

Mint marks can help collectors complete their sets and identify valuable numismatic dates. Investors can use them to find coins that carry additional value beyond their precious metal content. Either way, paying attention to mint marks is a simple habit that can help you make better purchases. It may even help you appreciate the coins you own.

Incentives Matter: Gold and Silver Edition

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Incentives matter.

This is a fundamental economic principle that seems to be completely lost on most people.

In this special episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey brings in Sound Money Defense League Director Jp Cortez and bullion dealer Craig Rhyne to talk about the impact of a state sales tax on gold and silver bullion recently passed by the Washington state legislature. Not content to just suck it up and watch his business get throttled by the new tax, Rhyne moved to Idaho.

Jp describes efforts to stop the tax. He and Craig explain why sales taxes on precious metals are so perverse. And Craig takes us through the agonizing decision he made to save his business.

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Mike opens the show by reminding listeners he lives in Florida.

"There are reasons we chose to live here. For one thing, we hate being cold, and we love the beach. But we also took the tax policies into consideration. By leaving Kentucky, we avoided state and local income taxes. That saved us thousands of dollars per year. Believe me, that was part of the moving calculus. And this underscores a fundamental economic truth: Incentives matter."

Mike emphasizes that while you may not approve of how people respond to the incentives created by a given program or policy, you had better take that response into account.

"Most people don’t. They tout the easily identifiable perceived benefits of their program and ignore all the unseen potential outcomes that could ultimately unravel their plans."

Economist Frédéric Bastiat tackled this phenomenon in his famous essay "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen."

“Between a good and a bad economist, this constitutes the whole difference — the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen, and also of those which it is necessary to foresee.”

Mike notes that there are a lot of really bad economists out there.

"And it seems like most of them found their way into government."

Some of them were elected to the Washington state legislature, and they recently passed a bill levying a sales tax on gold and silver bullion.

"I’m actually traveling this week, and it is tough producing a podcast on the road, so for the first time in Midweek Memo history, I’ve got a couple of guests coming on the show. In just a moment, I’m going to bring on Jp Cortez and Craig Rhyne, and they’re going to share with you the impacts of another policy debacle in Washington state. The legislature there just levied a sales tax on gold and silver.

"Craig is a bullion dealer who built a business in Washington. He’s moving it to Idaho. Why? Because incentives matter!"

Full Interview Transcript

Mike Maharrey:

All right, so let me bring in JP and Craig to the show. How are you guys doing today?

Jp Cortez:

Good. Mike, doing well.

Mike Maharrey:

So you guys are very special. This is the first time that the midweek memo has ever had guests. It's usually just me, so people will probably enjoy this. They're probably sick of hearing me ramble. So it's great to have you guys on. So I thought what we would do is I'd like to kind of start with Craig. And Craig, if you can just kind of share, how did you get into the bullying business? How did you build your business in Washington, and what kind of led you up to the drama that took place last year?

Craig Rhyne:

Well, I grew up on the Olympic Peninsula of Forks in Washington State. My father had a trucking business. The short story is he died. We went and bought gold when it was $42 an ounce. We bought silver for $1.29. That was after I read Harry Brown's book, How to Profit From the Coming to Valuation. And that got us going. And we started doing that when it was very unpopular, as it is still today. And then that became the reason for me, after graduating from the University of Washington, to start a company selling gold and silver. And I started Sea Rhine and Associates. In Tacoma, Washington, it morphed into Rhine Precious Metals and became the biggest dealer in the Northwest in the '80s. In the '90s, it failed. Just tried to meet everybody's prices after we had trained most of the people and then they would go off and start their own business.

Craig Rhyne:

I was one of the co-founders with Jim Blanchard and others of the Industry Council for Tangible Assets in 1983. Tried to get Nick of Deke Pereira. I mean, these are names from our history involved, but then he got killed. But then we started in 1983, forming a state association called the Washington Coin and Bullion Association because there was a sales tax on gold and silver in Washington state. And the House, Senate, and governor were all controlled by Democrats. But these were people that understood business. They understood how good it is to have business in their state, that the golden goose will lay golden eggs if they approve of businesses. And so we got a bill through in 1985 to eliminate the sales tax on gold, silver, platinum, coins, and bars. And we had 40 years of that exemption from business and occupation tax, which is a half percent gross receipts tax.

Craig Rhyne:

And then the sales tax, and then the state sales tax went up to 6.5%. But if you add the state, the local and city taxes and county taxes, 10.3%. So the legislature just changed progressively worse to be made up of mostly people who have never signed the front of a check. They've never paid a payroll.

Craig Rhyne:

They receive money from the public trough. And a lot of them are attorneys and love to make more laws. And they just think that they can just run people out of business. So after a 40-year successful tax policy supported by five Democratic governors in the state of Washington, they went nuts a year ago. They wanted more money. So they went through all the different exemptions that had been carefully worked out over the years by different parties, including gold and silver dealers. And we testified, I mean, it was a joke. We testified a year ago when we were fighting the bill at the last minute, and here your life is on the line, your business is on the line, and they wouldn't even give what they used to give, which is three minutes to testify. We had one minute to testify, to justify our existence before these people.

Craig Rhyne:

And one minute, if you know what that's like, you can hardly get your name out in one minute. And so anyway, the bill, we lost that. We hired lobbyists. We reformed the Washington Coin and Bullion Association, which has been active since then. And I'm the old guy on the team. And we've got about 40 dealers in Washington State, about half of which have put money into it, which is great, and paid dues, but a lot of freeloaders, too, that don't support it. But I moved the Washington Gold Exchange. I filled out all the forms for a new corporation in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, moved as of January 1st of this year. And I'm in Idaho as we speak right now, because I do have the office set up, but I don't have a residence yet. So I've been looking around at different places to rent or buy and just trying to keep alive, trying to sell gold and silver.

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Craig Rhyne:

And in the meantime, I hope that the leftist Democrats in our legislature will get enough pressure to reinstate the exemption in the next session.

Mike Maharrey:

It's crazy because we look at policy and we forget that there are human beings that are being impacted by this policy. And I'd be curious, how did you deal with the stress and the psychology? You've got these, I don't even know what to call them. We'll just call them politicians. That's about as dirty of a word as I want to say on my podcast. But you've got these folks that basically have your livelihood in your hands. How did you handle that stress?

Craig Rhyne:

Well, I'm old. And so with age comes some more temperate views. So instead of screaming and carrying on, I have used the power of the pen to send out newsletters to my mailing list. I mean, I've got 3,300 people that I contact. I've also been the one that's been the communication guy with the Washington Coin & Bullion Association. So I started thinking about how divided our country is. And for example, my daughter hasn't spoken to me in eight years. She canceled me, so that's representative of what's happened in society. 38% of all families in America are estranged. It's just sad. So the same thing is happening in the legislatures, where you have progressively more leftist, socialist-minded legislators who just think that America is bad, that the rich aren't paying their fair share. I'm so sick of hearing that. Yes. Pay your fair share. When 40% of the taxes are paid by the upper 1%, they are paying their fair share.

Craig Rhyne:

But these birds in these different states that want to put sales tax on, what do you think is going to happen to the capital base now? We've already lost Howard Schultz from Starbucks. He's moved to Florida, and Bezos has moved to Florida. I mean, these people are so damn dumb. There's no other way to describe it. It's just crazy.

Mike Maharrey:

Yeah. As a Floridian, I thank you guys for sending us those fine folks. So JP, I know that you and the Sound Money Defense League, you were involved heavily in trying to get this stopped. What was the political environment like when you started to try to talk to people and push to get this stopped? What was the response that you got from the legislators?

Jp Cortez:

Well, I think Washington's experience is indicative of that of many others. Like Craig eloquently said, these are legislators that are seeking every single tax dollar that they can possibly find. And if they see an industry, any industry, in this case, it happens to be gold and silver, but they see cash cows, and they're seeing an industry from which they can extract tax dollars. So unfortunately, last year, Washington did go ahead and exempt their repeal their longstanding exemption. And unfortunately, they weren't the only ones who did this. Maryland, as well, introduced and passed legislation to reimpose a tax on the purchases of gold and silver. And unfortunately, I think as some of these states are dealing with greater fiscal issues and they're looking into their couch cushions, trying to find any tax revenue they can to fill their massive budgetary deficits, you'll see that there have been more pieces of legislation just like this.

Jp Cortez:

So I said last year, Washington and Maryland imposed a new sales tax in their states. Just this year, we had to fight battles in Nebraska and Colorado, and are currently fighting in New York, where legislation has been passed, or where politicians want to reimpose this tax. And in the case of New York, for example, like what Craig was saying, you have progressive leftists, the socialist Mayor Mandami, for example, in New York City, who is working in arm in arm with legislators in Albany, in the state legislature, telling people that if they impose this new tax on gold and silver, they're going to raise $600 million per year for the state, $300 million just for New York City by imposing this tax. And these politicians, who, like Craig said, have very little experience running a business or barely balancing their own checkbook, are saying, "Wow, look at these tax dollars that we can find." And it creates this really tragic scenario where store owners, business owners like Craig, have to uproot their entire business and leave.

Jp Cortez:

Craig, can you tell me? I think I read somewhere that with these new taxes, the state of Washington was making more on every purchase than you were as the dealer. Can you tell us a little about that?

Craig Rhyne:

Sure. My normal markup these days on an ounce of gold is a hundred bucks. So with gold at 4,737 as we speak, say a one-ounce Gold Eagle is costing say two or 3% over spot. So the coin is 4,800 bucks, 4,850. The state of Washington wants $483. So who in their right mind, who in Washington state that is sane, would pay 485, 500 bucks basically more for their gold to buy it from a local dealer than to get on the phone and call someone in Portland or Coeur d'Alene, where I am now, or Montana or another state. And it's just a shame. I mean, before Washington and Maryland did this, we counted 46 states that had exempted precious metals because gold and silver are money. They're the real money. They're defined in the Constitution as money, gold, and silver, not these Federal Reserve notes that we have now.

Craig Rhyne:

So anyway, it's just been strange.

Jp Cortez:

Yeah. And it creates this scenario. It's very clear that lawmakers don't understand this industry, and they don't see that bullion purchasers, investors in gold and silver, are uniquely mobile. In Washington's case, your bordering states, both Oregon and Idaho, are not taxing precious metals. So anyone in Washington would simply have to drive to their nearest border or go online and go to an online dealer to avoid this tax. Yet lawmakers believe that by imposing this tax, they're going to rake in tens of hundreds of millions of dollars. And that's simply not the case. I'm happy to say that in Maryland, we were actually this year have been able to reverse this tax. So they imposed a new tax last year. This year, we worked with legislators there to get bills introduced, and we testified at committee hearings, and ultimately, that bill was approved by the legislature.

Jp Cortez:

It's currently sitting on Governor Westmore's desk in Maryland. And so they realized after just one year of dealers coming in and testifying, I was at a hearing where a dealer said, "From one day to the next, we lost 72% of our business. No one is willing to come in and buy metals and pay this tax when it's so easy to avoid this tax." And so Maryland realized we have to make an about-face. We've made a huge mistake. Dealers are shuttering their doors, investors are leaving, tax dollars are leaving. And so they've realized the error of their ways. And hopefully, in Washington, between Craig and his efforts with dealers in the state and with the Washington Coin & Bullion Association and other sound money advocates in the state, the idea is to convince lawmakers to get them to see that they're making a huge mistake.

Jp Cortez:

And this tax essentially strangles a business. It's impossible to function when the state is asking for seven, eight, nine, 10% on top of the cost of the actual medal.

Craig Rhyne:

One of the things I wanted to say is, Michael, I hope this is okay. There's an organization in Washington state called the Joint Legislative Audit Committee, and they're supposedly independent, but they're a staffing organization created by the legislature. And their job is to assess the income or loss based on various laws. And strangely, they came up with a number that was so implausible. It's so nuts. They said that the Washington State would have $54.6 million, something like that, over a biennium if they put sales tax back on gold and silver. The trouble is, the head of the National Coin and Bullion Association, they did a study, and they found out how bogus this is, and they were having conversations with the Washington JLARC, it's called the JLARC Committee, and JLARC wouldn't even follow up with them because they were such bogus, unbelievable numbers. So, the Washington legislature, like Maryland did, they decided based on these numbers that are not substantiated, that are bogus, that they should just put an entire industry out of business.

Craig Rhyne:

It was just awful.

Jp Cortez:

And importantly, or maybe more egregiously, this has been in the works for many years. I had the great pleasure of meeting Craig out in Olympia many years ago, in 2019, maybe was it? Where lawmakers were saying, "Oh, look, gold and silver, we should tax that. " And for many years, Washington lawmakers have come and taken multiple bites at the apple trying to get this new tax imposed, trying to raise tax dollars any way they can, regardless of the fact that gold and silver are constitutional money. And they've had their sights trained on gold and silver for years. And Craig's efforts and our efforts and the efforts of many others have kept them at bay. But unfortunately, this time it was just too much to overcome.

Mike Maharrey:

Yeah. It's interesting talking about the number crunchers. This is not an anomaly. It seems like all of these legislative commissions, I think, pretty much all of the legislatures have one. They all do this. I've seen it in multiple states. And of course, the Congressional Budget Office does the same thing. If you ever look at their forecast, they always assume the most rosy of prospects, right? We're going to have economic growth as far as I can see. And so all of their assumptions are so poorly done, and that's frustrating. And you mentioned, Jp, that it seems like they don't understand the gold and silver business. They don't seem to even understand human nature. If you can extract yourself from a painful situation, you're going to do exactly that. And that's what Craig has done. I mean, I did it to some degree. Part of the reason I live in Florida is because there's no state income tax.

Mike Maharrey:

So how do you deal with folks as you're trying to influence and change this policy? How do you deal with folks that just seem to be so ignorant? How do you overcome that? I'll leave that to both of you to kind of try to play that out.

Craig Rhyne:

My experience is, well, I'm old. I'm not doing internet business, and I like face-to-face meetings, and I like showing coins and rolling them on the hard surface and hearing the ring that they make when they turn around. And just simply showing what the consequences are of the sales tax and what a gold coin is, what silver is, and just really starting to give nuts and bolts from the beginning. As far as moving, I've met with two different attorneys on the border of Spokane and then in Idaho, three different accountants to see about whether or not to move. And they were all conclusive because, based on the Supreme Court Wayfair decision of 2018, these aggressive departments of revenue, they investigate everything they can. They're worse than the IRS. And so what we found is the only way to avoid the sales tax with my Washington clients was to move entirely and then to have them pick up their coins in Idaho, not to have them shipped into Washington.

Craig Rhyne:

That is verboten. The departments of revenue can't go after that. They've been working on this a lot. But I had found out, for example, if someone wanted to store in a depository in Texas or a Delaware depository or an IRA account with storage in Las Vegas, those are all exempt from sales tax. So Washington residents can buy gold and silver and not pay sales tax if they have an IRA in another state. So anyway, a lot of wiggling around to avoid the tax legally. Yeah. Yeah.

Jp Cortez:

It's really fascinating to watch the lengths that businesses will go to. Like Mike was just saying, if you're in an uncomfortable or a painful position, you will make efforts to get yourself out of that. I remember when, in 2024, we worked to help pass the sales tax exemption in New Jersey. And I was at a conference later that year, and a precious metals dealer based in New Jersey came and told me, thank you so much for removing this tax. I had this entire drop shipment operation in Pennsylvania, just over the border, where people would buy metal from me. I would send it to this undisclosed place in Pennsylvania, and they would come pick up there because there's no tax in Pennsylvania. And this is what dealers are having to do to get around a state that has shown that they want to extract as much as possible from responsible, legally operating dealers.

Jp Cortez:

To your question, Mike, about how to approach lawmakers, I think what Craig was saying earlier about these fiscal notes and how these revenue projections can get up to the tens of hundreds of millions in some cases, the flip is also true. The reality is that the art of fiscal making of this kind of projection oftentimes is more art than science. And so for example, I have a fiscal note from a bill that we passed, I think, or helped pass in 2022 or 2023, that eliminated the sales tax exemption on purchases of gold and silver in the state of Tennessee. The state of Tennessee is very comparable to the state of Washington as far as its population. So transactionally, you can kind of extrapolate that the numbers might be similar. In Tennessee, they found that by exempting gold and silver from tax, the state was only going to lose $360,000 a year.

Jp Cortez:

How can it be that a state so like Washington is projecting that they're only going to lose $360,000 while the state of Washington is projecting that it's going to lose $50-some odd million? It's literally made up in some cases. And these are politicians that are seeking to impose new taxes.

Craig Rhyne:

Yeah.

Mike Maharrey:

It's almost a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? You can massage the numbers to make them look however you want to make them look to drive your point. It would be really interesting, maybe this would be a fun journalism project to actually go back and look at some of these fiscal notes on some of these bills that passed, particularly when you have tax increases and then go and compare the forecast to what the actual numbers turned out to be because I bet that would be a very stark contrast between the forecast and the reality because as you said, and that's kind of the theme here. Incentives matter. People are going to figure out a way, which I guess the good news of that is it does show the resilience of human beings and markets. We figure out ways to deal with the barriers that are put in our path.

Craig Rhyne:

Well, another thing I wanted to add too is that 360,000 lost to the state of Tennessee by reinstituting the exemption. Think about the other incidental income from those people that were in those businesses that you lose. So, for example, I have employees, and our other 40 coin dealers in Washington State have employees. Those employees are paid. They have income. They buy goods and services and pay sales tax, and it goes down through the economy, a trickle-down effect, and it's just absurd. I mean, my family first came to Washington State in 1899. I love this state. This is my home, but now they don't give a damn. I've left the land of my upbringing. It's just sad.

Mike Maharrey:

It is sad. And again, that really underscores the human aspect of this. We're not just talking about dollars and cents and policy and taxes. We're talking about real people's lives. And I really hope that the folks that are listening, that is kind of the part that sinks in. When you see these debates, I think it's important to really focus in on that human aspect.

Jp Cortez:

Craig, if you don't mind me asking, so you have, like we've been talking about, you had a longstanding decades-old business, a successful business in Washington, and because of actions from the state legislature, you were forced to shutter your doors, pick up the entire operation, and move across the border to a more favorable jurisdiction. What would it take you to go back? Is there anything that ... Has the state of Washington lost you forever?

Craig Rhyne:

Well, JP, I've got to be totally honest here. I would probably come back, but I wouldn't come back to the woke King County. It is refreshing to be in Northern Idaho and not have anti-capitalist people. It's just really nice that way, but I would probably move back so I could be closer to family and friends from a lifetime in my own state. So that's an interesting one. Right now, I'm thinking I will survive. I've opened this business as of January 1st. I've got a new corporation, new IRS number. I mean, I've done all the due diligence to do that. And I know other dealers, even our board members on the Washington Coin & Bullion Association, have done the same thing.

Jp Cortez:

Wait, I'm sorry. Did you say other dealers that you know have left Washington? It's not just you?

Craig Rhyne:

Well, I'm not clear on it because when we get together, we spend our time organizing who we're going to meet and which fundraise, who we're going to go to support this summer and who we think will be our spokesman, our champion when the next legislative session starts in January. So we are still thinking positively about overcoming this and reinstituting the exemption. So we don't really talk about our businesses and where we're going, but I know at least one other coin dealer, I think he opened an Oregon office on the board, and then one of them has not thinking that maybe she can make it on just buying. But the other part of this thing is so nasty, this B&O tax, I'm sure you're aware of it, JP, it's a gross receipts tax. So if I buy 10 ounces of silver or a hundred ounces of silver from a customer, if I resell it to a dealer in Texas, for example, and have to ship it, I still have to pay one half of 1% B&O tax to the state of Washington.

Craig Rhyne:

So you can lose money and still you owe the tax.

Jp Cortez:

Yeah. The state will come for its pound of flesh one way or the other.

Mike Maharrey:

Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So to wrap up, what I would like for each of you to do is if you have any thoughts on what folks that are listening can do, and of course, most people aren't going to be in Washington state, so I don't know that there's anything specifically they can do with that. But just in general, as we try to process what has happened to Craig and knowing that this is not just something that's specific to one state, this is stuff that happened ... And it's all over the country. What advice would you give folks? What can people do to engage and possibly prevent this from happening other places and maybe to fix things in Washington?

Craig Rhyne:

Well, I certainly hope that there will be some help for our efforts in the next legislative session, 105 days, which starts in January. And it's very interesting. One of the senators who's a leftist from India who first supported getting rid of the exemption a year ago, she has since then come and visited the president of our association, Carolyn Biko, who's co-owner of Redmond Rare Coins. And this senator came and saw that, oh, the buyers are normal people. They're not rich fat cats who are flaunting. They're paying their "fair share" in the state of Washington. So we hope that more people will see what we're doing and help fund our lobbyist. We have a lobbyist, Mark Jurassic and Chet Baldwin, their team, and one is an attorney, Chet is. And we really could use support. Our website is Washington Coin and Bullion Association. And I'm trying to remember if it's org or if it's comm.

Craig Rhyne:

So I'll look that up.

Mike Maharrey:

And I'll make sure the proper link is in, excuse me, in the show notes. Okay. What about you, Jp?

Jp Cortez:

I think that Craig just made a really interesting point about this former legislator who has maybe spent a little time educating herself and kind of realizing that people who buy precious metals many times are of modest means. People buying every paycheck, every two weeks, buying a couple silver coins, things like that. And it reminds me very much of something I've seen in New York State recently, where I mentioned earlier that New York intends to use gold and silver investors as a bailout plan for their massive budgetary shortfall. And I'm reminded during these hearings where the senator that's behind, primarily behind these proposals to tax precious metals, often refers to precious metals owners kind of derisively. He calls them owners or buyers of Glen Beckcoins. It's very obvious. Oh

Craig Rhyne:

Geez.

Jp Cortez:

He refers to all precious metals owners. If people want to buy their Glen Beccoins, the state shouldn't be giving them a tax break for doing so. And it's so clear that there's political bias and obviously just complete uneducation of the industry as a whole. And so, maybe to Craig's point, part of the answer to this question has to be education. Letting these legislators, helping them understand this is not a tax break for the wealthy. Elon Musk isn't swimming in a pool full of golden coins. This is a

Craig Rhyne:

Cartoonish

Jp Cortez:

Understanding of gold and silver investors. The other side, I would say, is part of its education. The other part, and I think what the Salmone Defense League does and what Craig and the Washington Coin and Bullion Association do, so much of it, we have found a power in grassroots. So if you don't believe you have power in DC, frankly, you're probably right. But in Olympia, in Nashville, Tennessee, in Lincoln, Nebraska, in Salem, Oregon, in Boise, Idaho, in state capitals, you, the individual, does have a voice and that's very powerful. So I encourage everyone, if you receive alerts from the WCBA, if you receive alerts from the Salmone Defense League that are asking you to participate by reaching out to legislators by email or by phone, I strongly encourage you to take the action because we have seen over the dozen years that we've been doing this at the Salmoney Defense League, time and time again, legislators are quoted as saying, "Man, we heard from half the state on this issue and that's why we passed this gold bill." Or, "Man, we were going to pass this bill and then we received immense grassroots pressure from people in the state and so we're not doing this anymore." So I would encourage everyone to participate.

Mike Maharrey:

Yeah. And I can reiterate that having worked in the world of state legislatures and state policy level actions, type of stuff, you definitely have much more of an impact as an individual voice than you do in Washington DC. And I think people get jaded, right? We feel like, "Oh, nobody's going to listen to us," but there is hope, and there are things we can do. And Craig, just put in our chat, it is. Org. So it is washingtoncoinandbullionassoc.org, and then also SoundmoneyDefense. Are you. Org too? Soundmoneydefense.org. I'll make sure both of those links are in the show notes page as well, so that you can access those. But I really appreciate it, guys. I talk a lot about on the show about incentives and policy and the way it kind of works. This puts a human face on it, and I'm really, really happy to do that.

Mike Maharrey:

And Craig, I'm sorry that you've had to deal with this, but I really respect the fact that you're resilient and you seem to be making the best of the situation as you can, and you seem to have a pretty good attitude about it. So I'm sure there were many moments that you wanted to strangle a state legislator or two,

Mike Maharrey:

But just appreciate your fact and your kind of steady voice of reason, because I don't think I would be as calm as you are in that

Craig Rhyne:

Situation. Well, and to your point, Michael, we started to get rid of the exemption in 1983. I mean, this is before Jo was born.

Mike Maharrey:

I was in high school.

Craig Rhyne:

And we failed. And then we went back in 1984, a year later, and the education process continued. Then we finally got it through in 85. It took three years. Well, now with less business Democrats, but a more active and a more communicative membership, we think we could be able to get the exemption in the next session. I also wanted to comment that I was given flak by one of our board members of the Washington & Bullion Association by calling out Democrats killing an industry. It kind of rocked this person because I think they're a leftist, they're a progressive themselves, and on our board. But I always remembered the old saw that I don't care what they say about me in the news media as long as they spell my name right. And having coverage like this is crucial. And we are right now, we have a board meeting today where we're deciding on all these different interviews that we've done to have the links to them put on our website.

Craig Rhyne:

And we need to create information. We need to spread the word. So this is fabulous what you guys are doing. JP, you have testified beautifully on different occasions on behalf of this industry in Olympia, and my hat is off to you both for the work you're doing here. This is fabulous.

Mike Maharrey:

I appreciate that. And I'm going to sing JP's praises a little bit here because I've had the privilege of working with him both in this front and then also in some other legislative efforts. And the work that the Sound Money Defense League is doing is absolutely fantastic with the support of money metals. And just JP, you're one of the most effective ... I won't use the term lobbyist because that kind of has a bad connotation, but you're one of the most effective workers on the state legislative level that I've ever met. And I really do appreciate that. I mean that sincerely, that's not ... I like to be nice to the people on my show, but I sincerely mean that you do fantastic work. And I have no doubt that as we go down the road, we're going to get this reversed in Washington because the facts are on our side.

Mike Maharrey:

So with that, we're going to wrap this up, but thank you guys both so much for spending a little bit of time with me. This is a fantastic first guest episode of the Midweek Memo podcast. I'm really excited to get this out and I'm sure folks will enjoy it. So thank you guys both very much.

Craig Rhyne:

Thank you. Thank you. Really appreciate it. God bless.

Mike Maharrey:

God bless.

Articles & Links Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/incentives-matter-tax-edition-004771";>Incentives Matter: Tax Edition

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/24/incentives-matter-minimum-wage-edition-004864";>Incentives Matter: Minimum Wage Edition

http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Not Seen

https://washingtoncoinandbullionassoc.org/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Washington Coin Bullion Association

https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sound Money Defense League

American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2: Key Differences, Design Changes, and Value - Money Metals

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

If you're comparing American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 coins, it's probably not because you're primarily interested in design changes. You have a more important question:

Which coin is more valuable?

That's where most guides fall short. They list differences in the artwork or release dates, but they avoid the issue that really matters to investors: future value, liquidity, and real-world demand.

The truth is, both coins contain the same one ounce of silver. However, several factors beyond metal content influence coin prices. Some of those include collector psychology, historical significance, and supply dynamics.

That creates a real question for investors interested in the American Silver Eagle: should they favor the Type 1, a design that ran for 35 years, or choose Type 2, the first major redesign with new security features?

In this guide, we'll go beyond surface-level comparisons and break down which version may hold up better over time. More than that, you'll learn how to position yourself over time?

Quick Answer

American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2

When comparing American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2, neither coin is likely to significantly outperform the other. Both are primarily bullion, with value driven mainly by silver prices and modest collector premiums.

Both Type 1 and Type 2 Silver Eagles are primarily bullion; their value is driven mainly by the price of silver
Any long-term price difference will likely be modest, based on collector interest rather than intrinsic metal content
Type 1 may attract “end-of-era” collectors, while Type 2 benefits from “new design” appeal
Large mintages for both versions limit the potential for dramatic premiums
For most investors, the practical approach is to either own both or look for the models with the lowest premiums.

American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2: Key Differences

There are several differences between these two coins. The most notable design differences are in their reverse depictions. Perhaps more importantly, Type 2 has several enhanced design features to keep it from being counterfeited.

Feature	Type 1 (1986–Mid 2021)	Type 2 (Mid 2021–Present)
Reverse Design	Heraldic Eagle (John Mercanti)	Flying Eagle (Emily Damstra)
Security Features	None	Anti-counterfeit notch and enhancements
Historical Role	Original 35-year design	First major redesign
Collector Narrative	“End of an era”	“New beginning”

For all their differences, Type 1 and Type 2 American Silver Eagles have one core similarity: their silver content. These coins have identical silver purity, meaning they grant equal exposure to the silver spot price. Any differences in price relate to the coins' premiums, not their bullion value.

Which Is Better: American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2

Type 1 (Last Year of Issue) - Strengths

The Type 1 Silver American Eagle ended production in mid 2021. Compared to its later 2021 Type 2 counterpart, it has several advantages.

Its biggest selling point is its unique, end-of-era legacy. The American Silver Eagle was the first silver bullion minted by the U.S. Mint in decades when it premiered in 1986. Its design was iconic, and it contains symbolic value to many. It set a historical precedent that silver bullion was back in the American economy.

It also holds collector value. The Type 1 American Silver Eagle is a favorite among investors and numismatic lovers. It continues to hold strong with collectors who want it to complete their collections.

Type 2 (First Year of New Design) - Strengths

Type 2 Silver Eagles also have several advantages, and that's particularly true of 2021 Type 2 models. Its chief advantage is the converse of the 2021 Type 1: whereas that coin signifies the end of an era, Type 2 coins represent the beginning of one.

Another advantage it has is the result of that new era. Unlike the Type 1, the newer model has much stronger security features. That makes it easier to authenticate the coin, which gives many investors more peace of mind.

Its final advantage is its broader future recognition. As more of these coins enter circulation, they are likely to have more liquidity on international markets.

Reality Check: Why Differences May Be Small

It's easy to overthink the Type 1 vs Type 2 debate, but the market tends to be more pragmatic. Both coins have been minted in the millions, which limits any true scarcity. That matters for investors, because tighter supply is a crucial driver of premiums over time.

More importantly, Silver Eagles are still priced first and foremost as bullion. Their value rises and falls with silver prices; collector appeal plays a secondary role, though perhaps still a sizeable one. Even when premiums develop, they are usually incremental rather than dramatic.

In other words, while narratives around Type 1 and Type 2 matter, they are unlikely to create a significant long-term pricing gap on their own.

What Past Coins Tell About American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 Debates

If you want to understand how American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 coins may perform over time, it helps to compare these coins with historical parallels. Markets tend to follow patterns, whether those patterns deal with “first-year” and “last-year” coins have established track records.

1986 Silver Eagle (First Year Example)

The 1986 American Silver Eagle was the first year of issue, making it a useful comparison for the Type 2 Silver Eagle. It carries a modest premium today, especially in higher grades. Although the coin is not rare, it has a historical significance that gives it added appeal. This trend supports the belief that Type 2 coins may benefit from long-term collector interest over time.

End-of-Series Coins

Coins that mark the end of a long-running design often attract a different type of collector. There is a natural appeal to owning the “final chapter” of a series. While these premiums are typically niche rather than widespread, they can still develop over time. This dynamic strengthens the case for Type 1 coins as the last of the original Silver Eagle design.

2021 Gold Eagle Redesign Comparison

When the U.S. Mint introduced the Type 2 Gold Eagle in 2021, it generated strong initial demand driven by the redesign. Collectors and investors both found the change desirable, even though it had no effect on the gold purity. This reaction suggests that Type 2 Silver Eagles may follow a similar path, with early enthusiasm translating into sustained, if moderate, premiums.

American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 Investment Strategies

At the end of the day, choosing between American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 is not about some hypothetical theory. It's just like any other investment: aligning your purchase with your goals. That principle holds whether you're stacking for weight, liquidity, or potential upside.

Best Strategy for Bullion Stackers

If your main purpose is to build a silver stack at the lowest cost, premiums matter more than coin type. Silver Eagles of either type often carry higher premiums than generic rounds or bars. That means you will get less silver for your money. In this case, the best strategy is to buy the lowest-premium silver available, regardless of its design.

Strategy for Silver Eagle Buyers

If you prefer government-minted coins for their recognition and liquidity, Silver Eagles remain a great choice. These coins retain a great deal of trust in the silver market, a feature that gives them heightened liquidity. Rather than trying to pick the best coin, many investors will choose to own both Type 1 and Type 2. This way, they capture the advantages of both coins and maintain flexibility for selling.

Strategy for Premium Speculators

You will need a little more selectivity if you want to profit from collector premiums. At this stage, you are entering into the numismatic market, which values other features beyond liquidity and metal purity. Type 2 coins may benefit from first-year demand and modern features.

However, many collectors may still prefer Type 1 coins if lower mintages create relative scarcity. However, investors should keep their expectations grounded. Premium gains are usually modest, and they take time to develop.

Strategy for Long-Term Collectors

Balanced exposure is often the best strategy for collectors focusing on the legacy and historical significance of a coin. Holding both types of the coin creates a more complete narrative of the Silver Eagle series. Over time, that completeness can strengthen the coins' appeal and resale potential. This is especially true of future collectors looking for continuity rather than isolated pieces.

Premiums, Liquidity, and Real-World Considerations in the Type 1 vs Type 2 Debate

Beyond the Type 1 vs Type 2 debate, the factors that actually impact your outcome are often more practical. They include premiums, liquidity, and long-term trust in the product. These are the ones that move markets.

Premium Volatility

Silver Eagles are known for carrying higher premiums than generic silver, but those premiums are not fixed. They rise during periods of strong demand and contract when the demand fades. In many cases, those market swings matter much more than the type of Silver Eagle you own. A well-timed purchase at a lower premium can outperform small differences in long-term collectibility.

Liquidity Advantage

One of the great strengths of Silver Eagles is their top-notch liquidity. These coins have global recognition, allowing them to be sold quickly to dealers or private buyers. Both types benefit from this, but the newer Type 2 design may gain broader acceptance over time because of its upgraded security features. In uncertain markets, liquidity is likely to matter more than minor design distinctions.

Counterfeiting and Security

Many people do not realize how much of a problem counterfeiting is becoming in the precious metals world. Though it is not as common as counterfeiting everyday currency, it remains an issue. That's why the Type 2 Silver Eagle introduced enhanced security features, including anti-counterfeit elements designed to protect buyers and sellers.

These features may not impact value immediately. However, there is a high likelihood they could become more important as counterfeiting risks increase. That gives Type 2 a subtle but meaningful long-term advantage in trust and security.

Frequently Asked Questions: American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 Coins

Will Type 1 or Type 2 be more valuable?

Neither is likely to seriously outperform the other. They contain the same silver purity and content, so long-term value will track silver prices. That said, Type 1 may appeal as the “last of its kind,” while Type 2 benefits from first-year demand. Expect small, collector-driven differences.

Are Silver Eagles just bullion?

Mostly, yes. Silver Eagles derive the bulk of their value from their one ounce of silver. However, they provide excellent investment advantages, including recognition, liquidity, and occasional collector premiums, which can make them more desirable than generic rounds, especially in strong retail markets.

Is Type 2 like a “rookie card”?

In a sense, yes. Type 2 represents the first major redesign since 1986, which gives it “first-year-of-issue” appeal. Historically, first-year coins can carry modest premiums. However, they are not usually enough to outweigh broader silver price movements.

Should I buy both?

For most investors, owning both is the simplest strategy. It gives investors exposure to both the “first-year” and “last-year” narratives. Simultaneously, it also maintains flexibility. If one type develops a premium later, investors are already positioned to take advantage of the price.

Will one dramatically outperform?

That outcome is unlikely. Since both coins were minted in large numbers, their scarcity is limited. Any differences in their premiums are more likely to be gradual and modest. The biggest driver of returns will still be the price of silver, not whether you chose Type 1 or Type 2.

Final Reflection on Type 1 vs Type 2 Silver Eagle Coins

The American Silver Eagle Type 1 vs Type 2 debate is less about differences in value and more about narrative. Both coins contain the same one ounce of silver, and over time, metal value will be the primary driver of returns. While the Type 1 (last year) and Type 2 (first year) each carry collector appeal, any premium differences are likely to be modest, not game-changing.

For most investors, the takeaway is straightforward:

Focus on accumulating ounces at reasonable premiums
Do not overpay in pursuit of speculative upside
If you like Silver Eagles, own both types and let the market decide

For most investors, neither version clearly outperforms. However, Type 2 may hold a slight long-term advantage due to improved security features and broader future recognition.

Wall Street and Sound Money

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Despite the many advantages that a sound money standard would confer on ordinary savers, wage earners, and small business owners – from greater price stability to a check on inflationary erosion, to a closer alignment between savings and investment – such a regime has no shortage of powerful opponents.

Chief among them is Wall Street, whose interests are deeply entwined with the flexibility and discretion afforded by fiat money.

Indeed, contemporary Wall Street’s hostility to a sound money standard is structural.

A monetary regime anchored to gold, or any similarly binding constraint, would not merely trim profits at the margins. It would alter the operating environment in which modern finance has flourished, stripping away many of the advantages that have made the largest financial institutions so powerful and so persistently profitable in the fiat era.

How Does Wall Street Benefit From Unsound Money?

At the center of the matter is credit expansion.

Under a fiat system, the capacity to expand loan portfolios is limited far less by underlying savings than by regulatory frameworks and central bank policy. Banks can extend credit, securitize it, and recycle balance sheets with a fluidity that would be impossible under an honest monetary regime.

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The discipline imposed by a gold standard, where reserves are finite and redemption is a real constraint, would force a far tighter correspondence between lending and actual savings.

For institutions accustomed to generating returns through the continuous expansion of credit, such a constraint would feel less like reform and more like suffocation.

This dynamic is reinforced by the interest rate environment.

Central banks, through their control of short-term rates and their influence over the yield curve, have demonstrated a persistent willingness to suppress borrowing costs.

Wall Street benefits directly. Cheap funding allows for larger positions, thinner spreads, and a proliferation of strategies that depend on abundant liquidity.

Under a hard money system grounded in specie, interest rates would be far less amenable to such administrative control. They would reflect time preferences and risk assessments rather than policy objectives. The result would be higher and more volatile borrowing costs, compressing margins and curtailing the scale of leveraged activity.

Government Bailouts Encourage Risky Behavior

Layered atop this effective pair of subsidies is the implicit guarantee provided to Wall Street by the Fed’s lender-of-last-resort function.

The presence of a central bank willing to inject liquidity during periods of stress fundamentally alters risk-taking behavior. Financial institutions operate with the expectation that, in extremis, markets will be stabilized and key players supported. This expectation is not theoretical. It has been repeatedly validated.

Under a gold standard, such interventions would be severely constrained. Liquidity crises would force rapid deleveraging and reallocation, imposing losses where they fall. The removal of this backstop would expose balance sheets to a level of discipline that modern finance has largely avoided.

The same logic extends to moral hazard more broadly.

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The fusion of expansive monetary policy and discretionary intervention has produced a system in which gains are largely privatized while losses are, at critical junctures, socialized.

Wall Street’s largest firms are well-positioned to capture the upside of risk-taking while relying on systemic importance, “Too big to fail,” as a shield against catastrophic failure.

A sound money regime would erode this asymmetry. Without the capacity to create reserves ex nihilo, the state’s ability to cushion losses would be sharply limited, forcing a more symmetrical distribution of risk and reward.

Government finance provides another channel of benefit.

The modern fiscal state depends on the ability to run persistent deficits, financed in no small part through the issuance of debt that is readily absorbed by financial markets and, ultimately, by central bank balance sheets. Wall Street sits at the center of this process as underwriter, distributor, and trader of sovereign debt.

It is a lucrative, high-volume business built on the assumption of continued monetary elasticity.

A gold standard would impose far stricter limits on deficit financing, reducing both the supply of government securities and the ease with which they could be monetized. The contraction of this pipeline would remove a reliable source of revenue.

The broader phenomenon of financialization is similarly tied to fiat conditions. Sustained periods of low interest rates and ample liquidity have driven asset prices upward, inflating equities, real estate, and fixed-income securities.

Rising asset values generate trading activity and underwriting opportunities across wealth management and advisory services.

The Monetary System Is Designed to Benefit Certain Parties

Closely related are the distributional effects of fiat money creation: the https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/news/2018/12/10/richard-cantillon-important-economist-000200"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cantillon effect.

New money enters the economy through specific channels, typically the banking and financial system. Those closest to the point of injection benefit first, acquiring assets before prices fully adjust. Wall Street’s position at the nexus of these flows confers a structural advantage.

A monetary system with a natural cap on supply, such as gold, would limit the discretionary expansion of the money supply and therefore weaken these detrimental effects, reducing the capacity of financial institutions to benefit from early access to newly created funds.

Finally, there is the matter of governance.

A fiat monetary system requires continuous management – rate setting, balance sheet operations, regulatory adjustments – creating an environment in which proximity to policymakers is itself a source of advantage.

Taken together, these numerous interrelated factors explain why Wall Street’s resistance to money immune to manipulation is so determined.

The fiat system is not merely a neutral backdrop; it is an enabling condition for a particular model of finance, one characterized by leverage, liquidity, complexity, and close integration with the state. To replace it with a gold standard would not simply change the rules of the game. It would change the game itself.

Since the game is precisely what is in need of changing, Wall Street cannot be counted on to do anything to move the American monetary system towards the proper sound money standard we so desperately need – indeed, quite the opposite.

Img credit: https://www.flickr.com/people/34120957@N04"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alex Proimos/Flickr

Driven by the Winds Of War

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

A commodities reporter for the mainstream financial media emailed me last week asking me to summarize the state of the gold market.

I gave her lots of words, but could have replaced them all with just this: Gold is going to trade alongside all other risk assets—all of which will be subject to the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/25/war-rates-and-volatility-in-precious-metals-markets-004868";>ebb and flow of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

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Good news for an imminent resolution will send oil lower and all other assets higher, while bad news will send the markets lower as oil jumps higher.

Simply put, traders are setting asset prices—including gold at the moment—on Western exchanges. And those traders aren’t concerned about death, destruction, or peace in our time.

They’re solely focused on Fed policy and the prospects for rate cuts.

Thus, gold has performed as a risk asset, and not as the supposed preeminent “safe haven” asset, during this geopolitical crisis. This has been much to the confoundment of mainstream investors who hold the simplistic notion that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/21/where-and-why-for-gold-and-silver-004632";>the gold price should soar when bullets and missiles start flying.

As I’ve repeated over and over for literally decades, nothing could be further from the truth. The only reason for an individual to buy gold is to protect savings from an accelerated decline in a currency’s purchasing power.

That’s reason enough these days, of course.

In the meantime, this gold bull market will resume when, and only when, a resolution is reached in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Unlike many of my colleagues, I’m confident that’s coming.

In the meantime, if you doubt the dynamic I’ve outlined above, consider how gold has traded in such a close correlation with the S&P 500 since the conflict began:

https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_Nbl70Qkv_DuXYR3sqF5CxQaabSIn4H2t7g1kBih2rCQYCKR8FL69dJlfHujoBTZbXs2fCZtWiytEHdU5blDUGIKe5ahw0xs7D69=s0-d-e1-ft#https://mediacdn.espssl.com/6092/2026/GO042726_1.png"; alt="Chart - Gold Spot Price Correlated with S&P 500" width="580" data-bit="iit" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" tabindex="0" />

That bottom panel shows the rolling 20-day correlation between the two assets, and it’s been strongly positive since the moment investors realized that a quick resolution to the conflict wasn’t in the offing.

Conversely, gold has traded in a tight inverse correlation to the oil price, as you can see from the solidly negative correlation shown in the bottom panel of this chart:

https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/meips/ADKq_NawnKGxiv2Ue2V3B8bbsHx7Egsbnf0wmQEgdtHgENswriCfRKeOGW0naz-GXXzpxwpJWaFaLgpLpPOoV6ml0eNoDoYrBirZHLqG=s0-d-e1-ft#https://mediacdn.espssl.com/6092/2026/GO042726_2.png"; alt="Chart - Gold Spot Price Correlated with Oil Price" width="580" data-bit="iit" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" tabindex="0" />

So, patience is the order of the day. Once this conflict is in the rear-view mirror, the fundamental—and irreversible—drivers of the gold bull market will reassert themselves.

To get Brien Lundin’s ongoing commentary on the markets at no charge, https://goldnewsletter.com/golden-opportunities-sign-up/?tblci=GiBdY-MYH1-nD-WW6UXCXAtHBPIEdPpDc50r48qPeOICrCDKuWUow8jry8SFw-EvMLzYPQ"; target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://goldnewsletter.com/go/signup.php&;amp;source=gmail&ust=1744317318819000&usg=AOvVaw2ANgx-AJB2jYMBK3Hg82yd" rel="noopener noreferrer">click here to subscribe to his free Golden Opportunities newsletter.

With Few Employment Prospects, Afghan Men Are Digging for Gold

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

What if you could just pull money out of the ground?

That’s exactly what men are doing in the Hindu Kush mountains of eastern Afghanistan. They are scouring the rocky Kunar riverbed for flecks of gold.

Here in the U.S., people pan for gold for fun. However, these Afghan men aren’t enjoying a hobby. Hunting for gold is one of the few options they have to earn money and put food on their families’ tables.

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Delawar, 45, is among the men searching for small flecks of gold. He has a family of eight to care for.

“There are not many job opportunities in the country, and in this way, we have created work for ourselves.”

It’s not easy work, and it isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. Prospectors dig dirt and rock from dry sections of the riverbed and wash it with river water.

An Al Jazeera report describes the grueling work required for a small amount of gold:

“In nearby Ghaziabad, hundreds chip away at the mountainside with picks, carrying heavy sacks down steep slopes to empty onto sieves for gold filtration. Others use yellow jerrycans attached to long wooden handles to pour river water over sieves, allowing smaller, potentially gold-bearing stones to slide onto mats. After two additional siftings, gold nuggets occasionally appear in metal pans.”

All of this effort sometimes yields small flakes of gold. Delawar said they are usually smaller than a grain of wheat.

Even so, Gul Ahmad Jan told Al Jazeera that the work can be “lucrative.” He said that in a week, he can get up to about 1 gram of gold. That’s worth approximately 8,000 Afghan Afghani (AFN; ؋), or around $125 US Dollars (USD).

Five hundred dollars a month isn’t much by American standards, but it’s a lifeline for Afghans who have few employment opportunities.

This is possible because, fundamentally, gold is money. And people recognize it as such all over the world. No matter where you go, people recognize gold’s value.

Report: U.S. Gov’t Buying Cartel Gold

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

The notorious drug cartel Clan del Golfo, or Gulf Clan, has been described by Secretary of State Marco Rubio as “a violent and powerful criminal organization.” Its leaders are also on a U.S. financial blacklist.

And yet, the U.S. Mint buys an untold amount of gold that’s sourced from mines controlled by that cartel, according to the https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/world/americas/us-mint-gold-drug-cartel-colombia.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">New York Times.

In an investigation published Sunday, the Times described how gold from cartel-controlled mines winds up at the U.S. Mint.

In the town of Caucasia, for instance, five-man teams of miners pay the Gulf Clan about $400 per month for permission to do business there. Those miners typically sell their gold to local shops, which also pay the cartel $400 per month.

At the shops, workers melt the gold together and pour it into a mold. “And just like that, the first metamorphosis is complete,” the Times reported.

Shopkeepers are required by the Colombian government to keep ledgers, ostensibly to ensure that the people they transact with mine in authorized areas using only hand tools and no mercury. But in practice, the regulatory system is a farce, according to the Times.

“Workers are not mining only with hand tools. Or in authorized areas … [But] the Colombian authorities rarely examine barequero gold’s origins to determine legality,” the Times reported.

After the gold is melted down, the shops sell it to a government-owned exporter, which then sends it to the U.S.

“The exporter said it checks the same database … verifying that the gold is legal. The gold from La Mandinga is mixed with supplies from around https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/11/13/report-colombian-drug-cartel-is-now-in-the-gold-mining-business-003616";>Colombia and melted into bars,” the Times reported. “Export records show that many of them, worth about $255 million over the past year or so, arrive in Texas. There, the gold becomes American.”

Once the gold is in the U.S., companies here treat it as American. Companies sell the gold to the U.S. Mint, which sells more than $1 billion of investment-grade gold coins per year.

According to the Times, a full supply chain audit would flag the cartel gold. “But for two decades — a period covering nearly all of the post-Sept. 11 gold boom — the Mint never asked its suppliers where they bought gold,” the Times reported, citing a 2024 Treasury Department inspector general’s report.

The Times said it shared its findings with the Treasury Department, which oversees the Mint. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said he would investigate the gold procurement practices.

“This review is focused on ensuring that the U.S. Mint’s gold suppliers comply with the law and strictly satisfy their obligations, and that the Mint takes every step possible to continue to vigorously safeguard our national security and uphold market integrity,” he said in a written statement to the Times.

The U.S. Mint has a long-standing reputation of mismanging its affairs. Leaders in the precious metals industry have criticized the Mint's operational problems, especially with respect to the silver American Eagle coin program.

Due to a lack of any stockpile of coin blanks, the U.S. Mint has struggled to satisfy public demand during busy periods in the retail precious metals market. This has led to high premiums and negative investor experiences.

In November 2024, the Wall Street Journal first reported on the Gulf Clan’s gold-mining activities — revealing that the cartel commandeered some 30 miles of tunnels from Zijin Mining Group, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/21/chinese-gold-imports-up-to-start-the-year-004854";>a Chinese state-controlled company.

The Gulf Clan reportedly commandeered the tunnels through brute force, forcing Zijin security forces to retreat with explosives and gunfire “in what a company official described as trench warfare.”

“Miners often seize Zijin tunnels by first tossing explosives and shooting at guards,” the Journal said at the time, citing a security guard at the site.

“The miners carry jackleg drills and set off as many as 250 detonations a day to break through rock. Their advance has cost Zijin two of the mine’s three sections,” the newspaper reported at the time.

“The richest and deepest part of the gold mine remains in company hands. Zijin has about 4,500 workers there and at processing centers. The company excavates around 4,000 tons of rock a day, which yields an average of 53 pounds of gold.”

The Gulf Clan also reportedly provides its miners with prostitutes, marijuana, and other drugs.

A Gold Bug vs. Washington D.C.: Judy Shelton on the Fed, Gold, and Monetary Policy

Sun, 26 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Judy Shelton isn’t your typical Washington insider.

Sure, she’s advised presidents and rubbed shoulders with the likes of Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan. She was even nominated to serve as a Federal Reserve governor. But there is one big difference between Shelton and your typical D.C. monetary policy wonk. She’s a “gold bug” who believes in sound money.

Shelton recently joined Gold Telegraph Alex Deluce for a wide-ranging conversation about the future of monetary policy.

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Many people believe we are on the cusp of a monetary reset. The dollar is rapidly losing credibility due to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/14/us-government-spending-addiction-drives-yet-another-big-monthly-deficit-004836";>America’s fiscal malfeasance and the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>weaponization of the currency. Many https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>countries are spurning the dollar and piling up gold.

Historically, monetary resets have occurred due to wars. Shelton said there is a better way.

“Could we have a monetary reset without war? That to me seems the logical way to do it and without revolution, but it's going to take sort of a revolution of principles among the people to say we actually demand a dependable unit of account.”

Shelton said she believes gold offers the best path forward when it comes to a sound monetary system.

“I wish we had a neutral reserve asset like gold, something universally recognized, something that's had constant purchasing power over centuries. The beauty of gold is that it provides a reference point independent of the government. Money is meant to serve as a reliable measure. It's supposed to be a dependable store of value.”

The dollar is anything but dependable. The government devalues the U.S. currency by 2 percent every year as a matter of policy. That’s a 10 percent reduction in the dollar’s purchasing power every five years. And in practice, the dollar is losing value even faster than that. The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/the-inflation-tax-youre-still-paying-for-that-covid-stimulus-004840";>post-COVID inflation surge provides a case in point. Since January 2021, price inflation has risen between 23.6 percent and 27.1 percent, depending on which metric you choose to use. People are starting to pay attention, and some are starting to question the future of the dollar.

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People who support sound money and a gold standard are derisively called “gold bugs.” Economist John Maynard Keynes famously called the gold standard “a barbarous relic.” But Shelton said it seems like the perception of gold is starting to shift in a positive direction.

“The interest in gold, the amazing run up in the price of gold denominated in every currency, would seem to indicate that people are losing faith in fiat currencies. Maybe they don't trust governments to maintain a store of value that's meaningful, that's trustworthy. So, I definitely think there's a strong correlation there, and I hope it's indicative of people saying, ‘I'm not satisfied with money that loses value. And I almost demand a unit of account that's meaningful and dependable.’”

Shelton cut her teeth studying the internal monetary and financial system of the Soviet Union. She quickly came to the conclusion that Soviet central control would eventually collapse the economy.

“I saw what government can really do to turn the money into what came to be called by Soviet citizens ruble trash.”

Shelton wrote a book predicting the collapse of the USSR titled https://lawcat.berkeley.edu/record/526655"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Coming Soviet Crash: Gorbachev's Desperate Pursuit of Credit in Western Financial Markets. The book caught the attention of Richard Nixon, and Shelton corresponded with him frequently over the next several years.

Ironically, Nixon is the president who ultimately https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/06/28/what-in-the-world-happened-in-1971-003286";>cut the final tie between the dollar and gold when he ended the convertibility of dollars to gold in 1971. When Shelton told Nixon that she was planning on writing a book about the Bretton Woods system (which Nixon ended), he came back with a shocking response.

“I thought, maybe he'll tell me something of his thinking. And what he wrote back was maybe more interesting. He said, ‘I know very little about monetary policy.’ And I thought, and yet he's the one who ended that system.”

Shelton said in another letter, Nixon confessed, “I'm not sophisticated enough on monetary matters to comment on your proposals.”

Shelton said Nixon had a good grasp of economics, but he was advised (poorly) when it came to the intricacies of monetary policy.

During https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_Xw5tWsOQo&;amp;feature=youtu.be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a national television address, Nixon promised the closure of the so-called “gold window” would be temporary to “defend the dollar against the speculators." He also said, “Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation,” and promised, “Your dollar will be worth just as much as it is today.”

Shelton said the move fundamentally changed our money.

“Americans were kind of told, ‘Oh, don't listen to these rumors. It may cost you a little more to travel in Europe,’ I think is the way Nixon said. ‘Some things may seem a little more expensive, but we're going against the speculators.’ He called them the currency speculators, which were probably the same people who were saying, ‘I'd rather have the gold.’”

Shelton also developed a professional relationship with Paul Volcker. As Fed chair, Volker famously cranked interest rates to 20 percent to tame the rampant inflation that raged out of control after the last tie of the dollar to anything was severed. Shelton taped a three-hour conversation with Volker, who was present when Nixon gave his order and initially supported the move.

“Paul Volcker on the sidelines in between taping would say, ‘I never meant that to be the outcome.’ He said, ‘I thought we needed to temporarily close the system because we had inflated so much to finance both the Vietnam War and new entitlement programs that we had exported inflation around the world, and those countries were now demanding that we redeem US dollars at the old $35 per ounce of gold convertibility rate, which was inherent in the Bretton Woods agreement.’ And he said, ‘I just thought we might have to go to $38 or maybe even 40.’ But he said, ‘Then I thought we would reinstate what was essentially the system that he said everyone at Treasury believed in.’"

Of course, that never happened. We ended up with a free-floating currency that the government could inflate at whim to fund its ever-growing welfare/warfare state.

As Deluce put it, the U.S. effectively traded discipline for “flexibility” in its monetary system.

“In a way, that flexibility is kind of a weasel word that can sound good. I mean, the governments like to say we need the flexibility, but what it really means is the flexibility to not be disciplined, and then that translates into the flexibility to reduce purchasing power, to incur inflation, to debase the currency, to carry out some other goal the government deems as being important. And that's when you reduce money to being just another economic variable to achieve whatever government objective they think is in the interest of government.”

Shelton believes the objective should be simple – preserve people’s earnings.

“When someone earns money, that's like property. And in fact, James Madison argued that a depreciating currency is the same as stealing property and therefore unconstitutional. He considered it government expropriation.”

Shelton argued that a common global currency would be ideal.

“We should all use the same unit of account for cross-border. Why would you have exchange rates moving around? People complain about tariffs, but tariffs have a minor impact on relative prices compared to exchange rate changes. At least Paul Volcker always thought that. He said, ‘You could work two years to get a tariff whittled down one or 2 percent.’ And he said, ‘And you could lose all that in 10 minutes of trade on foreign exchange markets.’ So, I think that's very important to bring back.”

Shelton said talk of a common currency may sound futuristic. However, it’s really “retro.” For hundreds of years, gold and silver served as a common currency. Many people are coming back around to this idea because there is a growing desire to “decentralize finance.”

“What does it mean, this attention to gold around the world? What does it mean that China is accumulating gold and silver? What does it mean that other countries have asked to have their gold repatriated back from the basement of the New York Fed? I think it shows this declining faith in government-issued currency and a desire to have a reserve asset that is more dependable.”

Shelton has advocated remonetizing gold through a long-term gold convertible bond.

“I tried to come up with an idea to start moving toward honest money, to start getting back to some kind of a gold link for U.S. currency, because I think that it performed in a more stable way when we had some kind of gold link between the dollar and gold. And so, I've suggested the treasury should issue a long-term gold convertible bond, where, at the option of the bondholder on maturity, you could redeem either a pre-established amount of gold or at the nominal value, the face value denominated in dollars of the instrument. But where I think this could be particularly interesting would be we see stablecoins moving forward. Stable coins are one-to-one backed by the collateral, which can be gold, it could be readily marketable securities, most likely treasuries. I think it would be very interesting to launch stable coins that were backed, let's say you had one exclusively backed by gold convertible treasuries, and I've said a solidus to invoke both, I think it's from the Byzantine period, the currency that was ... It was around the world.”

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President Trump nominated Shelton for the Federal Reserve Board during his first term. She was quickly marginalized as a “gold bug.” As Deluce explained it, “The Washington machine built explicitly to protect politicians' ever-growing spending demands quickly closed ranks.”

“I couldn't believe it. And I sent, I had a wonderful friendship with Alan Greenspan, and I would email him some of these articles. And I remember one where he wrote back and said, ‘If gold is such a worthless medal, why does the US government and every other major government keep so much of it?’ And so, I felt reinforced by that, but I was amazed at the power of pundits, who I knew didn't know as much as I knew about monetary systems and history, or the fact that both Volker and Greenspan had great respect for the role of gold as a bulwark against runaway money. So, it was difficult. I had a hard time understanding that.”

Shelton is not shy about criticizing the current Fed chair. Although she was more diplomatic, she essentially called Jerome Powell’s handling of the “transitory” inflation in the post-pandemic years incompetent. While he played lip service to accountability, nobody ever took responsibility for the debacle.

“He repeatedly said, ‘Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve.’ Well, we didn't get price stability. We still don't have it. Yet he not only never apologized, but he refuses to resign. And I think that's outrageous, and it's cheap grace to say, ‘You take responsibility and nobody gets fired.’”

Shelton said now is the time for substantial reforms at the Federal Reserve. In fact, it almost sounds like she thinks we could do without the central bank’s constant tinkering with the monetary system and the economy.

“I think there's been great dissatisfaction. Inflation continues to be a lead issue for people. And I think the focus on the Fed, the constant presence of the Fed is sort of, for me, it's kind of an irritant. I don't think they should have this massive footprint, and where people make financial decisions by first weighing in on what the Fed might do, 25 basis points up or down. And now there is, in a way, we're addicted to that. I sometimes think if we ended the Fed, I don't know what all of these armies of analysts and commentators, what would they do? But we'd have a healthier economic system if people could just take for granted that the money is not going to depreciate, that a unit of account can figure into your planning for your whole future, and that you're not just trying to keep up constantly with inflation and forced to put your money at risk. I think that would be a much better world.”

Shelton said the bottom line is: “We need to guarantee honest money.”

“I think what's at risk is this sense of people increasingly that they are victims of monetary favoritism, that the Fed maintains policies that increase the inequality of wealth and income, that they reward people who are already wealthy enough to have financial assets. I think we need a revolution of valuing honest work, honest government, and honest money. And by that, I mean, celebrate people who actually make goods, who produce goods and services, not just people who arbitrage the anomalies of financial markets. I think we have to insist on honest government. I think deficit spending is unacceptable. That's immoral because you're robbing from future generations, you're putting liens on goods that have yet to be produced, and it just enhances the likelihood of ever-increasing government.”

War, Rates, and Volatility in Precious Metals Markets

Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent episode of the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey sat down with Philip Newman, https://www.metalsfocus.com/our-team/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Managing Director and founding partner of Metals Focus, to unpack the forces shaping gold and silver markets in 2026.

Drawing on Metals Focus’ widely respected data, which is used by organizations such as the Silver Institute and World Gold Council, Newman offered a detailed look at how geopolitics, monetary policy, and industrial demand are interacting in real time.

The discussion began with the Iran–U.S.–Israel conflict, which has introduced significant https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/11/gold-geopolitics-and-volatility-insights-from-joe-cavatoni-004830";>volatility across global markets. While many expected a strong safe-haven surge in gold and silver, Newman explained that the metals have not responded as dramatically as some anticipated.

A key reason is the sharp rally leading into late January 2026, when both metals reached record highs before correcting. That pullback left some investors cautious about re-entering the market.

More importantly, the dominant influence has shifted toward Federal Reserve expectations. Before the conflict, markets were pricing in up to two rate cuts in 2026. After hostilities began, expectations quickly changed, at times even suggesting the possibility of a rate increase.

(Interview Starts Around 8:21 Mark)

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Inflation Outlook, Fed Policy, and Global Economic Uncertainty

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Looking beyond the immediate conflict, Newman described the broader environment as highly uncertain. Metals Focus built its 2026 forecasts on the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/04/war-headlines-shook-prices-but-the-bigger-silver-story-is-still-intact-004813";>assumption of a short-lived war, but a prolonged conflict could shift the outlook. Rising energy prices have already contributed to inflation pressures, including a reported 21 percent increase in gasoline prices, which could push the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/21/inflation-alert-the-federal-reserve-balance-sheet-is-growing-again-004853";>Federal Reserve toward tighter policy.

At the same time, conflicting pressures complicate the situation. High levels of government and corporate debt make sustained higher interest rates difficult. Political dynamics also play a role.

Newman noted that pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from President Donald Trump, could raise concerns about central bank independence. If markets begin to doubt that independence, the U.S. dollar could weaken, which would https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/silver-price-surged-last-year-despite-modest-drop-in-demand-004851";>support gold and silver prices.

Geopolitical risks extend well beyond the Middle East. Ongoing tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, NATO, and East Asia continue to add instability. Even if the current conflict ends quickly, other factors such as tariffs, the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, and shifting political strategies could sustain volatility across global markets.

Retail vs Institutional Investors in Gold and Silver Markets

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Another important theme is the divergence between retail and institutional investors. Maharrey pointed out that gold often rises during Asian and European trading hours, then declines when U.S. markets open. This observation aligns with ETF data showing continued inflows into gold funds in Asia during March.

Newman confirmed that retail demand has remained strong, particularly in coins and bars across multiple regions.

In contrast, institutional investors have become more cautious. Increased price volatility and risk management constraints have limited their participation. The correction in late January forced many institutions to scale back exposure, and higher volatility now allows them to achieve returns with fewer trades.

As Newman explained, “The volatility is so much greater that a single trade can perhaps generate a return… compared to six months ago.”

He also noted that much of silver’s rally from mid-October 2025 through January 2026 was driven by retail activity and day trading, especially on exchanges such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the CME. This highlights how different segments of the market are reacting in distinct ways to current conditions.

Silver Supply Deficit and Long-Term Market Trends

Newman also discussed findings from https://www.metalsfocus.com/product/world-silver-survey/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the latest World Silver Survey, which includes final data for 2025 and forecasts for 2026. While the 2025 deficit was relatively small, he emphasized that the cumulative deficit over multiple years is far more important.

“What’s more relevant is the ongoing deficit in the marketplace,” he said.

Historical data support this view.

In 2022, the silver market recorded a deficit exceeding 250 million ounces, yet prices averaged https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>below $22 per ounce.

In 2023, a 200 million ounce deficit corresponded with an average price just above $23. These figures show that annual deficits do not directly determine price movements.

Instead, the ongoing drawdown of above-ground stocks gradually tightens the market.

By 2026, cumulative deficits over several years are approaching the equivalent of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>an entire year of global mine production. This marks a sharp reversal from the 2010 to 2020 period, when silver stocks increased by more than 200 million ounces. The shift illustrates how quickly the supply picture has changed.

Industrial Silver Demand, Solar Thrifting, and AI Growth

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https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/23/silver-prices-rose-even-as-demand-slipped-004858";>Rising silver prices have led to increased efforts to reduce usage, particularly in the solar sector. Newman explained that manufacturers are pursuing thrift strategies because even brief price spikes create concern about future costs.

Technological changes are already reducing silver demand in photovoltaics. In heterojunction technology, silver usage has declined by about 85 percent since 2021 due to the adoption of silver-coated copper. This dramatic shift highlights how quickly the industry can adapt when prices rise.

As a result, photovoltaic demand is expected to fall from about 198 million ounces in 2024 to roughly 151 million ounces in 2026, a decline of around 19 percent. Despite this drop, overall industrial demand remains resilient.

Growth in other sectors is helping offset the decline. The expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, especially data centers, is driving strong demand with little evidence of substitution.

Newman noted that “there is an urgency to get these data centers installed… they don’t want to reduce the silver content.”

Additional support comes from electric vehicles, satellite technology, power distribution systems, and defense applications. Even with reduced solar demand, total industrial silver demand is expected to fall by only about 3 percent and remain above 600 million ounces.

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Precious Metals Market Outlook and Investor Takeaways

The conversation makes clear that precious metals markets in 2026 are being shaped by a complex mix of factors. Geopolitical tensions, shifting expectations for monetary policy, technological changes, and structural supply deficits are all influencing price behavior.

Short-term movements are increasingly tied to Federal Reserve policy and interest rate expectations.

At the same time, long-term fundamentals such as tightening supply and steady industrial demand continue to provide underlying support. Regional differences in investor behavior and the growing role of retail participants add further complexity.

As Newman emphasized during the discussion, “The key takeaway is uncertainty.”

Understanding precious metals markets now requires attention to both immediate macroeconomic signals and the deeper structural trends that are unfolding over time.

For those who want to follow https://www.linkedin.com/in/philip-newman-a048293/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Philip Newman’s work, Metals Focus publishes https://www.metalsfocus.com/product/precious-metals-weekly/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">extensive research and market analysis on its website.

Investors can also stay connected with Mike Maharrey and the team at Money Metals through the Money Metals podcast and the company’s https://www.moneymetals.com/news";>ongoing market commentary and analysis.

Silver to $135… or Even $300? This Big Bank Thinks So…

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s market wrap podcast, I’m Mike Gleason

Coming up don’t we’ll have another wonderful interview, this time with Phillip Newman, founding partner and managing director of https://www.metalsfocus.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Metals Focus. Phillip recaps the incredible rally we saw since his last guest appearance with us late last fall which saw gold and silver skyrocket and what that and the subsequent correction that took place following has meant for the precious metals market.

Phillip then discusses where things are likely headed now given the backdrop of the war with Iran and the reemergence of inflation – both in today’s economy and in the near future given the potentially disastrous ramifications of the oil shock and likely energy crisis which may ensue.

Mike Maharrey’s guest also tells us how uncertainty surrounding industrial demand for silver may impact the price of the white metal from here on out so long as the Iran war continues, and how the different scenarios of the length of the war will have a positive or negative effect on poor man’s gold specifically.

So, be sure to stick around for another wonderful Money Metals interview with this week’s guest Phillip Newman of Metals Focus, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Well, it seems being a silver bug could be going mainstream.

As we reported previously at Money Metals, Bank of America released an eye-popping silver forecast, saying the price could land anywhere between $135 to $309 by the end of this year.

Even the low end of that forecast would represent a 75 percent gain from the current level!

But $135 to $309 is also an extremely wide range for that forecast... this underscores the difficulty of reading the markets in such a volatile geopolitical period.

Bank of America head of metals research Michael Widmer bases his forecast on https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>the gold-silver ratio -- the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40:1 and 60:1. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the gold-silver ratio was historically high, averaging 91:1. The ratio peaked in April of last year at 107:1.

By the end of the year, the ratio had plunged to 61:1 before falling to roughly 50 early this year when silver briefly broke above $110.

The ratio has crept back up in recent weeks and currently sits around 60:1, the high end of the historical norm. However, Bank of America's analyst pointed out that during significant silver bull markets, that ratio has dropped far below the average.

That’s the nature of averages. Sometimes things run far below the norm, and sometimes far above. Over the last several years, the gold-silver ratio has tended to run above the historic average. It wouldn’t be shocking for it to drop significantly below that level.

Widmer points out that in 2011, at the peak of the Great Recession precious metals bull market, the gold-silver ratio dropped to 32:1. Assuming $5,000 gold, that would push the silver price to $135.

Of course, we’ve seen gold-silver ratios even lower. During the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze in 1980, the ratio fell to 14:1. Such a ratio would yield a silver price of $309 right now.

There is even more upside if you believe the gold bull market still has legs. Many mainstream banks forecast $6,000 gold this year.

“I’ve highlighted before that the gold market has been very overbought. But it's actually still underinvested,” Widner said earlier this year. “There is still a lot of room for gold as a diversification tool in portfolios.”

Precious metals make up about 4 percent of the total financial market. However, within the professional investment sector, high-net-worth investors hold only 0.5 percent of their assets in gold. Last year, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson came out with https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/07/seismic-shift-morgan-stanley-recommends-602020-portfolio-with-20-allocated-to-gold-004389";>an investment strategy that includes a 20 percent allocation to gold.

Even a small uptick in investment demand could drive the gold price higher. Widner said a 55 percent increase in gold investment would drive the metal to $8,000 an ounce. And that's the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/20/wells-fargo-debasement-trade-could-drive-gold-to-8000-004850";>best-case scenario in Wells Fargo’s analysis.

If gold continues to move higher, it will almost certainly take silver with it. While a large percentage of silver demand comes from industrial offtake, it is still fundamentally viewed as a monetary metal, and it tends to track with gold over time.

A move to over $300 per ounce of silver may sound extreme, but these wild price moves aren’t unprecedented. Widner pointed out that silver more than tripled in 2011 while gold gained roughly 80 percent over the same 18-month stretch. He said he thinks 2026 sets up similarly, with gold’s momentum already well established.

More fundamentally, above-ground silver stockpiles have slowly but steadily drained over the past few years. This situation precipitated https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/29/silver-squeeze-20-drives-price-over-80-004576";>two silver squeezes that first drove prices above $50 and then took them to that January high of over $110.

A convergence of factors from market dynamics to logistical problems led to an unprecedented silver shortage. While the market dynamics that got us here might be difficult to untangle, the situation is about as basic as it gets.

There’s not enough silver.

The silver market recorded a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Last year, demand outstripped supply by over 40 million ounces (or 1,252 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.

Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

In total, there has been a rundown of nearly half a billion ounces in the last 15 years.

When silver demand outstrips mining and recycling output, silver users must tap into aboveground stocks. That generally means rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to give it up.

That means the environment is right for additional silver squeezes.

Silver over $300 is certainly a best-case scenario, but it is clearly not out of the question. And even if the metal doesn’t reach those lofty heights this year, there is plenty of reason to remain bullish.

Lastly here, before we get to the interview let’s take a look at the weekly market action and check in on where we stand currently with a few hours left in the trading week.

Gold is down a little more than $100 or 2.3% to come in at $4,732 an ounce. Silver is down nearly $5 an ounce or 5.7% to trade at $76.87. Platinum is off 4.2% to check in at $2,028. And finally, palladium is also down 4.2% and comes in at $1,512 an ounce as of this Friday midday recording.

Well now, without further delay let’s get right to our exclusive interview with a metals market insider.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey, and I'm pleased to be joined once again by Philip Newman. Philip is a founding partner and one of the managing directors at Metal's Focus, which is the go- to place for data and analysis relating to precious metals. So they do a lot of the legwork that gives us the supply and demand numbers that you often see. And they work with organizations such as the Silver Institute, the World Gold Council, the World Platinum Investment Council, and others to supply this very valuable data. How are you doing today, Philip?

Philip Newman: Pretty good. And it's very good to be back on your podcast. Much appreciated for having me again.

Mike Maharrey: Well, it's always a pleasure to have you. And as much as we use your data and work, we need to have you on from time to time just to kind of say thank you because we really do. What you guys do over at Metals Focus is absolutely invaluable. So we appreciate all of the hard work you and your folks do in getting all the data to us so that we can try to figure out what's going on in these crazy markets. So I'd like to just start with the Iran-US-Israel conflict because that's been probably the primary driver, at least short term of all of the markets at this point. It seems like every time Trump says something on his social media platform over there, the markets move one way or the other, so it's kind of crazy. But I'm curious just from a little bit broader perspective and from what you've seen in the metals market, are you surprised at all about the way metals have behaved throughout the conflict so far?

And has anything surprised you at all?

Philip Newman: Sure. I think first of all, we got to see that through the lens of the late January correction and just a speed with which gold and silver hit those new record highs, comfortable record highs as well in January. The speed of the rally, especially from mid-October through to late Jan, that the investment that attracted into the market with the correction. I think some investors were burnt by that. So, I think there was maybe a reticence to come back in. And I think what was also really interesting when the war broke out, I know some investors were, I think, disappointed that there was a more upside from both. Where was the safe haven action? But I think what we saw quite quickly was a very strong correlation breakout between spot gold and silver and Fed expectations in terms of where they will be setting rates or what they were talking about, especially for the balance of 2026.

So, I think what we're seeing is the war breaks out, even with the recent ceasefire, uncertainty about that. I think today's a brilliant example. April 21, in terms of expectations, would the ceasefire hold, Trump's threatening to start bumping Iran again? What does that mean for energy prices? What does that mean for inflation? And by extension, Fed expectations. Because Mike, if you go back pre-war, the markets were expecting perhaps up to two cuts before the end of this year. We then have the missiles start flying and very quickly a shift to expecting maybe a rate increase. So we will pivot in that regard. And I think where we have been recently, and I haven't checked today, if I'm honest, but we've been recently is for no rate cuts this year. And it could well be with that, as you pointed out, just as we started talking, gold is off very aggressively over a hundred bucks.

Silver is below $77. So it could well be that the markets could even be pivoting to one rate increase. We're even thinking about that for the end of this year. And of course, gold and silver don't provide a yield. And so that is weighing on both. And I think that's where we are, to be honest with you.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I think you're right on. And it's interesting, I did an article not too long ago looking at the performance of gold, particularly in past conflicts. And you kind of do see that there's an initial safe haven bump, and then other factors tend to drive the markets much more than the war itself. And one of the main things is the trajectory of monetary policy. So, I think you're right on target there. And it'll be interesting. I feel like the consensus was if we get through this quickly and energy prices don't spike too much, maybe we'll be all right. And of course, when we got the last CPI data, we had a huge spike in energy prices. I think gasoline was up 21%, if I remember correctly. So we definitely have seen that energy price surge. So, it'll be interesting to see how it kind of plays out.

I'm curious if, from your perspective, has the war fundamentally altered at this point your mid to longer term view of the metals markets? And if not, how long will this need to go on before we really start to see it kind of fundamentally altering the trajectory that we were kind of seeing maybe two months ago?

Philip Newman: Sure. I mean, I think those are really the $60 million questions, aren't they? When we put the forecast, the 2026 forecast together for the silver survey, that's now well over two weeks ago in terms of printing and courier times and so on. We had to come to a decision. I mean, what do we know against anyone else? We assumed a war would be short-lived and that informed our demand estimates. It informed our price expectations, and that was important because that also affected some of the price sensitive components of supply and demand for this year. But I think if the war is extended, if it goes well into late in the second quarter, into the third quarter, that could continue to weigh on prices for the reasons that we've talked about. Maybe that would actually then you're into maybe an environment of inflation expectations becoming or higher expectations of inflation becoming more entrenched.

And then from a Fed standpoint, that may force them to consider raising rates. Now, I think as we've seen, that isn't something that Trump is looking for. And so the pressure that he could put on the Fed could be really quite something to watch of great concern to the markets. We saw late last year, early this year, when there were concerns about Fed independence, that really sort of dollar come off. So in a sense, I've just described two dollar scenarios. One, war is extended, inflation remains high, looks to raise rates, not good for gold and silver. The flip side is if there's pressure and what form that pressure would take, I simply don't know. But if the markets believe there's a real risk to the Fed dependence, that could see the dollar come under pressure, which in turn could be gold and silver price positive.

But in terms of if the war, as I said, runs well into the second or into the third, that could see pressure on global growth, that could see downward expectations or revised downward expectations for some of the main areas, especially for industrial demand. So I think that's one of those risk factors out there. If you're having heightened price volatility, then that could be quite damaging for the likes of jewelry and silverware, and especially the portion which is concentrated in India, because that's the largest market for both commodities is in terms of Indian demand for jewelry and silverware. Bar demand and coin demand, a really interesting one, tends to respond well to price volatility, so we could see more upside there. So I think, Mike, I guess the key takeaway is uncertainty. That's what you're introducing there, more uncertainty in supply and demand.

Mike Maharrey: I think that's exactly the word that was running through my head as you're talking about that. And then you add to the fact that on one side, you've got the inflation worries that the Fed has to deal with. And then on the other side, you have tremendous amount of debt. You've got corporate debt, you've got government debt. And so, that is not friendly to a high-interest rate environment. So, how does the Fed walk this tightrope? And I think for me, sometimes I feel like you can kind of read the tea leaves with the central bank. I feel pretty lost right now. I'm not going to lie. It's really difficult to get a handle. And I honestly think if you asked them in an honest moment, they'd probably say the same thing, that they don't really know where it's going to go either. I think that would probably be a fair answer.

Philip Newman: Yes. And I think that even if the war is short-lived, that doesn't remove the uncertainty out of there. I mean, you've touched on it in terms of debt levels. They are a significant concern for the market. I think that's a fantastic point to make. I think also, will we see the return of tariffs? Clearly, Trump's got other things to think about right now, but that was such a feature of last year, that cliche phrase, but it's so true, this weaponization of tariffs, does that return? And I think the other really important point, unless it becomes very US-centric, but it's so relevant with your midterm elections, I think early November. Right now, there seems to be a bit of a swing in some locations to the Democrats. November's obviously a very long time away, but if that continues, what does Trump do to perhaps mobilize his base?

So, I think that could also be a concern as well. So, there's a lot out there as well. And I think the geopolitics extends into other jurisdictions. There are certainly concerns out in East Asia one has to think about as well. So there's still a lot out there, even if the war is short-lived.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. You still got the conflict in Ukraine with Russia and issues of NATO. I mean, there's so much out there as far as the geopolitical stuff goes.

So, here's something, and this is a little bit anecdotal on my part, but kind of watching the movement of both gold and silver, I tend to start working before the US markets open, and so you're catching the later day in Asian trading and maybe midday in European trading. And what I've noticed oftentimes is that gold will be up a little bit in that early part. And then when the US markets open, it's like, boom, it's going to go down. It tends to go down with the North American markets. And then I've also seen some of the ETF data showing that Asia is the only place that we continue to see inflows of gold into ETFs in March. So I'm curious if I have this perception that the Asian markets have remained a little bit more bullish on gold through this conflict than say North America and maybe even European markets, and there's just a little bit of a dichotomy there.

Is that something that I'm just making up or does that stand out in the data that you've seen?

Philip Newman: I think from the goal point view, yeah, absolutely. I think that's been quite interesting. And even if I think about the retail market, generally from a gold standpoint, that has been pretty strong. You've certainly seen the decent gains in lots of jurisdictions. I think it's been very widespread in terms of the coin and bar demand, for sure. So I think that's been quite fascinating. I think what's been really interesting from an institutional standpoint is the heightened volatility that you see from a price standpoint can often mean that institutional investors, if looking to invest on the CME, whether it's in the futures or the options, whatever it may be, their exposure in, say, in value terms can be less than it's been previously because the volatility is so much greater that a single trade can perhaps generate a return when compared to, I don't know, six months ago, they'd have to put on say three or four trades to get a similar return because the volatility now is so much greater.

So, I think that's been an interesting change that we've seen in the market over the past couple of months. And then you think about some of these operations, again, I'm thinking more of an institutional standpoint with the value at risk models and with that correction that we touched on earlier in late Jan that was so sizeable for both gold and silver, that has, I think, curtailed the ability of some of these institutional investors to invest to the same degree that they would've done in both markets before you had that correction. So, you've got different dynamics playing out from institutional standpoint versus a retail standpoint. And I think what was really interesting, Mike, when you look at the run up, I think especially silver in price, again, for mid-October, especially through to late Jan, I think a lot of that was more driven by retail activity, day trading really ramped up.

You see that inactivity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, you see that in the CME main contract, for example. So that was, I think, some very interesting different dynamics that we've seen play out.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it's definitely been interesting. That's a good word to describe everything in the markets lately. So you mentioned the World Silver Survey that recently came out, and you guys do that in conjunction with the Silver Institute, and I've already gotten several good articles out of it, so thank you for that. But I'm curious if this was kind of the final data for 2025, and then we've got some forecasting for 2026. I'm curious, as you went through that final data, was there anything that stood out to you from last year that maybe surprised you or really stood out in terms of how silver ran through 2025?

Philip Newman: Sure. I think there's a few things, and some people may focus on the deficit being pretty modest for 2025. From our point of view, that's a little less relevant. What's more relevant is that ongoing deficit in the marketplace. I think what you see really is very little correlation between the surplus or deficit in any one year and price action. If you look at, for example, even go back as far as 2022, a record deficit over a quarter of a billion ounces, yet the silver price average less than $22, and you follow that through 2023 deficit, 200 million ounces, the price averages just over $23 an ounce. So I think that's really interesting, and that's why that was interesting for the conclusion, the fact that one of our big takeaways is that you had a pretty small deficit, but really it was that, I guess, that ongoing deficit and erosion of those stocks that helped to generate that squeeze in October.

I think one of the other things, Mike, that stands out is for industrial demand, we only had a decline of about 3% last year, and that's despite about a 6% drop in photovoltaics, despite those fireworks the end of the year, not just from a price standpoint, but what it did to lease rates as well.

Even if we put aside that incredible spike in October, yes, lease rates came down pretty quickly, but they still remained well above historical norms well into April this year, I would say. And the industries had to contend with that. So, I think that has been really quite fascinating.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, it's interesting. One of the charts that is in the packet that you guys sent out shows that cumulative deficit over time. And it's interesting to look at that chart because you can see where you're running surpluses, not big surpluses, but you had the ... And then it's like there's this big dip and it really is compelling to see how much it is accumulated over time. And as you say, any one given year, okay, but when you start piling them up one year, two, year, three, year, four years, it becomes quite substantial. And I think if my math is correct, if the projected deficit this year holds, then we're looking at over the last six years, basically an entire year of mine output, which that's a lot of silver when you start to think about in those terms.

Philip Newman: Yes, no, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, the deficit this year, as you all have seen, is slightly greater than the last year, pretty similar in the scheme of things. But obviously, as we've touched on, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, a lot of moving parts. I think it'd be really fascinating when we come in November to present even the interim and silver interim findings in New York, the flash estimates for this year, where does the deficit sit against what we were thinking for this year? I think the other point to make, those charts you highlight, I mean, I know when I presented last week, I actually said that these charts showing both the annual deficit and the cumulative deficit are two of the most important in the presentation. And I would encourage anyone listening if you've got an interest in the silver market, please do head over to the Silver Institute website.

Hopefully this presentation will be online for you to review. I think the other point, Mike, if I can make this one, is that yes, you're absolutely right where we are in terms of this deficit, but it's worth just remembering that if you compare, look at start in 2010 and go through to 2020, you had about over a 200 million ounce rise in stocks. So, that's an incredible change in position from the turn of 2020 to 25, dramatic change in the marketplace in just a few years.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. I'm curious, we've had much higher prices over the last several months. And so we're starting to hear talk about, especially in the solar industry of thrifting and substitution. And I'm curious from your standpoint, how realistic is the substitution thing? I mean, can they realistically substitute for a lot of the silver or is it ... I've heard conflicting things. I've heard, yeah, they can switch it over pretty easily. I've heard, no, no, they have to retool and so it's not as easy. Where do we stand in terms of price going up, solar panel manufacturers looking for alternatives?

Philip Newman: Sure. I think the first thing to bear in mind is that the industry was struggling in terms of high prices in very late 2025, let alone when we were getting into what we saw the fireworks of in late January. And if you're in the industry and you've seen even for a day, over 120 bucks, it doesn't matter if prices in weekend consistently, you are going to try and thrift because you're worried that will happen again. That's why when we saw, what is it, 2011, 12 round there, silver went to 50 bucks, and after that prices really struggled for a long time, you saw thrifting. It wasn't perhaps aggressive thrifting for a while, but it was never ending. It was successive years of thrifting because they were worried that you're going to see $50 return. So it's just part of the parcel of the industry, but that was more thrifting.

What we've seen over the past few years is for, I guess there's a technology called HJT, that's what it stands for. Again, I'd encourage people to look at the silver survey. We do speak a little bit, we go into a bit more depth about some of these technologies. Now, HJT is a very small part of the market, maybe now 4% of the use of silver in photovoltaics, but when it was touted in say 2019, around there that this was coming online, it was viewed as a really exciting area because the loadings were so high. What we've seen though is that that particular HJT technology is basically moved to silver coated copper. And so even if we look as recently, if we were to benchmark say the amount of silver used in HJT in say 2021, when it first was really coming onto the market, and we compare that to now, the amount of silver is down by about 85% in that one technology, 85%.

And that again is because of the silver coated popper, and that's worked. It may be a really small part of the market, but it's commercially in play. But again, small part of the market. Most of the market now is this top-con technology that I think is about 75, maybe just a bit under that, but say in the low 70s in terms of a percentage share of the marketplace, heavy silver user. Even there, we've seen, again, if we look at, again, benchmarking 2021 with where we are, our expectations for now, that's half the amount of silver's half in that technology over that five-year period.

But what they were now looking at is can they deploy the technology that's worked so well for HJT into Topcon? Can they introduce silver coated copper? But what you've also had talk about in January is, can you replace some of the silver with copper? Now, that really would not have been a conversation last year, even at 50 or $60 silver because of the trade-off to a lower efficiency module. But silver now in the 70, $80 range, then that really is something the industry will be looking at. Now, let's be clear, it's not going to be a wholesale replacing of silver, but you could ... I think the days of 2024 was when we saw a record level of silver demand in the photovoltaic market, it got up to, by basis, our estimates, about 198 million ounces of silver, but our forecast for this year is about 151.

So 26 versus 25, that's a job about 19%. And we think you're going to see further declines going forward in the use of silver in photovoltaics.

Mike Maharrey: Very interesting. Is the AI build out taking up some of that slack?

Philip Newman: Absolutely. Completely. Yeah, absolutely. You're seeing in the AI in terms of this desire, this urgency for investment in data centers, from what we understand, there's no thrifting. There is an urgency to get these data centers installed. They don't want to reduce the silver content as far as we see, so that I think is a really interesting one. You look at something like there's growth in the satellite market in the power distribution area, in the factory electric vehicles, yes, there's slow growth in the BEVs, but there's still growth. And I think at some point, especially with energy prices where they are, for some markets, that may encourage, again, more of a switch out of hybrids or ice into BEVs. And so especially when you think about the likes of when silver matters in terms of from a safety point of view, so in a car, in the braking systems or the airbags, you're not going to move away from silver.

In the defense industry where quality matters, you're not going to thrift. So there's a lot of areas. And I think that you really have, I think now to point on the head. So despite that 19% forecast from us for PV this year, we've only got a 3% drop in global silver industrial demand. So yes, it's a decline, but it's a very modest one. You've still got a market which is comfortably north of 600 million ounces for this year. So, I think that really speaks to a lot of resilience in that marketplace.

Mike Maharrey:

Yeah, absolutely. You mentioned the military application. I thought that went through my head as they've blown up an awful lot of silver in the last few weeks. I mean, I probably shouldn't laugh about something like that, but I mean, it is a reality. All of those missiles have silver in them. And don't think that once you blow them up, you can recover the silver.

Philip Newman: No, that's definitely foregone. So, you certainly got a replacement there, and that's quite interesting. And I mean, just to as a slight segue, how we look at the market is we speak to globally the main manufacturers of silver powder and pastes, silver oxide, whatever it may be, that intermediate product. And so that gives us a good idea about the global use of silver in industrial areas. It's not always easy to isolate the end use, but we certainly, I think, see more going into defense, it's just not something we can quantify.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I've never found anybody who is willing to quantify how much silver is used in the defense industry. That seems to be a pretty big mystery, but everybody agrees that there's quite a bit, and I think that stands to reason when you consider all of the electronic components in a modern military. Well, we've about run ourselves out of time, but before we go, I do want to have you let folks know where they can follow the work of Metals Focus, point them to the website and any other place that you may like people to go.

Philip Newman: Sure. I mean, the starting point will be metalsfocus.com. I mean, you've very kindly, Mike touched on some of the areas we do work for, the likes of the World Gold Council, obviously the Silver Institute, the context of this podcast, and the World Platinum Investment Council. We also put a lot of research out. So we have our precious metals weekly, India monthly. So, if it's interesting seeing those, do come through the website and then align to that, we do a lot of work and on services, on mine costs, doorway flows, one year, five year forecast. There's a lot out there to keep us busy, but the starting point for all of that would be our website at mellowfocus.com.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. And I want to reiterate the amount and the quality of work that you guys do. I mean, virtually, I would say I'd be pretty comfortable in saying every single week I'm using data that is coming from you guys in my reporting and analysis. So absolutely invaluable. And I appreciate all that you do because I know it's hard work and you've got a lot of really smart folks that are boots on the ground all over the world gathering this information. So folks, if you're following precious metals at all, you definitely need to be engaged with what is going on over at Metals Focus. And I appreciate the work you do, Philip. And I'm not just saying that because you're on my show, but it's a very sincere compliment. Well, with that, we'll wrap this up. I know you're way ahead of me in the time zone, so you're probably about ready to wrap up your day and I'm ready for lunch.

So, I'm going to let you go, but I do appreciate you being on. And again, thank you for the work that you do and we'll definitely have you back on here in the near future as things continue to unfold.

Philip Newman: Well, thank you. Appreciate it and look forward to next time.

Mike Maharrey: All right. Thank you.

Always great analysis from our friends there at Metals Focus and I hope you enjoyed that interview.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And remember to tune in as well to the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey.

To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.