Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

David Morgan: Gold Is Winning the Battle for Monetary Trust

Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold and silver have pushed decisively higher, but veteran precious metals analyst https://www.linkedin.com/in/thedavidmorgan"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">David Morgan believes the bigger story goes far beyond the latest price move.

Speaking with Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey, Morgan, publisher of https://www.themorganreport.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Morgan Report, argued that investors are witnessing a growing contest between precious metals and the credit-based monetary system. With https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold trading above $4,500 per ounce and silver approaching https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>$69 at the time of the interview, Morgan said the market is increasingly signaling a loss of confidence in government debt and fiat currency.

(Interview Starts Around 8:56 Mark)

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Gold and Silver Have Broken Out

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Morgan believes both metals have already broken https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/17/is-this-the-start-of-gold-and-silvers-next-leg-higher-005144";>through important technical levels.

For silver, he had previously argued that prices below $60 wouldn't last long. Once silver established itself above $60 and held that level, Morgan viewed it as a legitimate breakout rather than a temporary move.

Gold told a similar story. Morgan had been watching the $4,000 level, but with the metal reaching roughly $4,500, gold had moved more than 10 percent above that threshold in only a matter of weeks.

Morgan hasn't completely ruled out a sharp correction. A bond-market disruption, interest-rate shock, or other unexpected event could produce what he called a sudden "spike low."

However, the strength of the metals during August, traditionally a seasonally weak period, caused Morgan to revise his expectations. He no longer believes such a selloff would necessarily push gold back to $4,000 or silver below $60. He suggested a sudden drop might instead take gold from around $4,500 to roughly $4,200, while silver could potentially retreat toward $62.50.

Building Wealth One Coin at a Time

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Morgan cautioned investors against becoming obsessed with daily price fluctuations.

His preferred strategy remains dollar-cost averaging. Instead of attempting to perfectly time every rally and correction, investors can consistently accumulate physical metal and remove some of the emotion from the process.

Morgan described the approach simply as https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>building wealth "a coin at a time."

The point isn't to get rich overnight. It's to preserve purchasing power and gradually accumulate wealth with money that required real work to earn. Morgan noted that plenty of people who become rich quickly ultimately lose their fortunes just as quickly.

A Battle Between Gold and Government Debt

Maharrey pointed out that geopolitical headlines, including developments surrounding Iran, have produced short-term volatility in gold and silver. But underneath those daily moves, he argued, the fundamental forces supporting precious metals remain intact.

Morgan took that argument further.

He believes the world may be approaching a tipping point in a much larger battle over which assets deserve monetary trust.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries and other sovereign debt instruments have been treated as among the safest assets in the financial system. Morgan believes gold is increasingly challenging that assumption.

In his view, the choice is becoming one between gold and a promise to receive currency sometime in the future.

A $1,000 bond may eventually return its principal, but Morgan noted that there is no guarantee the dollars received five, 10, 20, or 30 years later will possess the same purchasing power. Gold, by contrast, carries no counterparty promise.

Morgan pointed to central-bank reserve holdings as evidence that this transition is already underway, arguing that gold has overtaken credit instruments as the leading reserve asset held by central banks.

Mining Stocks Could Provide Confirmation

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Morgan believes one important confirmation of this monetary shift could come from institutional investment in major precious metals mining companies.

He specifically pointed toward companies such as Newmont, Barrick, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Franco-Nevada.

If large institutions begin moving substantial amounts of capital into the major mining companies, Morgan said it could signal that sophisticated investors increasingly recognize the same shift toward precious metals.

After studying the silver market for more than four decades, Morgan acknowledged his natural bias toward precious metals. But he believes the market itself is increasingly providing evidence for his thesis.

Treasury Buybacks and the $40 Trillion Debt Problem

The conversation turned to the Treasury Department's decision to double its buybacks of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>longer-term government debt.

Maharrey characterized the move as an attempt to suppress troublesome long-term interest rates. Morgan largely agreed.

Morgan explained that Treasury auctions ordinarily allow investors to determine the yield required to compensate them for inflation and other risks. If investors aren't willing to buy a long-term bond at a given yield, yields rise until buyers emerge.

As yields rise, existing bond prices fall.

Morgan argued that government intervention through increased buybacks interferes with that price-discovery process. In his view, it amounts to an effort to control the yield curve rather than allowing the market to determine the true cost of borrowing.

The stakes are enormous.

Maharrey noted that the federal government is carrying https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/40-trillion-debt-black-hole-is-a-financial-crisis-coming-005149";>roughly $40 trillion in debt and already faces annual interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion. Higher yields would make financing that debt increasingly expensive.

Could Silver Reach $100?

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Turning specifically to silver, Maharrey asked Morgan whether $100 silver could become a reality before the end of the year.

Morgan said it was possible, but it isn't his base-case forecast.

He has generally expected silver to reach somewhere around $78 to $82. At the same time, Morgan warned that silver has a long history of surprising even experienced analysts.

The critical variable is monetary demand.

Industrial demand has grown dramatically over the past quarter-century, rising from approximately 35 percent of total silver demand to around 60 percent. But Morgan explained that industrial demand generally doesn't fluctuate enough from one year to the next to create explosive short-term price moves.

Investment and monetary demand can.

When industrial users and investors simultaneously compete for the same available 1,000-ounce silver bars, the market can move rapidly. Morgan believes that dynamic helped drive the dramatic silver moves seen during the latter months of the previous year and the first month of 2026.

Morgan expects silver to continue grinding higher through the remainder of the year, although sharp corrections could periodically shake investors out of the market.

He doesn't believe the ultimate highs are in.

Morgan expects new record highs in both gold and silver, but he sees the bigger move potentially unfolding in 2027 or 2028.

Silver's Industrial Demand Keeps Growing

Higher silver prices inevitably raise questions about substitution.

Solar manufacturers and other industrial users have an incentive to reduce silver consumption or replace it with cheaper metals such as copper. Morgan has been studying the issue and believes copper could reduce silver usage in solar panels, but he doesn't think it eliminates the need for silver entirely.

Durability could also become an issue.

If a cheaper copper-heavy solar panel lasted only five years compared with 25 years for a silver-intensive alternative, the apparent savings could disappear when measured across the product's full life cycle.

Even if technological improvements dramatically reduce solar-sector silver consumption, Morgan believes emerging technologies could absorb the difference.

He pointed to batteries, semiconductors, artificial intelligence infrastructure, electrical expansion, and robotics as potential sources of additional demand.

Could Robots Become a Major Source of Silver Demand?

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Robotics could eventually become an especially interesting source of silver consumption.

Morgan said his ongoing research suggests robots could contain roughly 20 to 30 grams of silver apiece.

Thirty grams is approximately one troy ounce.

That creates some striking theoretical numbers.

If global production someday reached 100 million robots annually and each contained roughly one ounce of silver, robotics alone could theoretically require approximately 100 million ounces of silver every year.

Morgan emphasized that he isn't predicting 100 million robots will necessarily be produced annually. The numbers remain speculative, and the industry isn't yet large enough to provide certainty.

The broader point is that robotics represents an emerging source of silver demand that barely exists today.

What's Really Behind Asian Silver Premiums?

Maharrey also asked Morgan about reports of unusually large silver premiums in Asia.

Morgan cautioned against interpreting the entire difference between Asian and Western prices as a true physical-metal premium.

Several additional costs can become embedded in the final Asian price.

Tariffs can add expenses. Currency fluctuations between the https://youtu.be/rI_ATwekpNk?si=TQQBmhj7tJa2lCkh"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese renminbi and U.S. dollar create hedging costs. Shipping physical silver across the world isn't free. Trust and other market considerations can add further expenses.

Once those factors are included, what appears to be a multi-dollar premium could actually consist of several different costs, with perhaps only around $1 representing the true premium on the metal itself.

That distinction matters because arbitrage isn't effortless. Shipping multiple 1,000-ounce silver bars across the ocean to capture a relatively small price difference may not make economic sense when silver itself can move dramatically while the metal is in transit.

What If the Stock Market Doesn't Crash?

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Morgan also offered a provocative reassessment of the U.S. stock market.

He has long considered American equities extremely overvalued and once viewed a major correction as virtually inevitable.

He still considers a correction the most likely outcome, but no longer sees it as inevitable.

Why?

Inflation can distort nominal asset prices.

Morgan pointed to countries such as Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Argentina, where stock markets can continue climbing in nominal currency terms even as the underlying currency depreciates faster than stocks appreciate.

In that environment, an investor's brokerage account can show a larger number while the investor simultaneously becomes poorer in real purchasing-power terms.

Morgan stressed that he does not expect the U.S. dollar to enter hyperinflation. But he pointed to a reported 9 percent monthly increase in beef prices as an example of the kinds of acute price pressures consumers can experience even without economy-wide hyperinflation.

Inflation Can Ultimately End in Deflation

Morgan then raised another idea that may seem counterintuitive.

"All inflations end in deflation," he argued.

The monetary system can continue inflating as confidence deteriorates, but Morgan believes some form of reset eventually becomes necessary.

He speculated that a future monetary structure could involve digital units, blockchain technology, or even a universal basic income. As a hypothetical example, he imagined a system providing people with 2,000 digital units per month.

But the number of currency units somebody possesses isn't the same thing as wealth.

The important question is what those units can actually buy.

Wealth Is About Choices, Not Digits

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Morgan argued that living standards ultimately provide a better measurement of wealth than bank-account balances.

Real wealth means having choices.

Can you afford transportation? Housing? Food? Entertainment? Can you purchase the products you want when you want them?

A person can possess more nominal dollars while simultaneously experiencing a declining standard of living if goods become more expensive, scarcer, or unavailable.

Morgan pointed to food as an increasingly obvious example. If higher grocery costs force a middle-class household to sacrifice entertainment or other discretionary spending simply to maintain its diet, its real standard of living has fallen even if its nominal income has increased.

Maharrey expanded on the point by noting that inflation doesn't only manifest itself through consumer prices.

Monetary inflation can flow into stocks, real estate, and other assets, creating what appears to be greater wealth on paper. But if the amount of goods and services that wealth can command hasn't increased accordingly, much of that prosperity can be an illusion.

Ultimately, Maharrey argued, an economy isn't about paper units or digits in an account. It's about real goods and services.

Physical Gold and Silver as Monetary Insurance

Morgan closed the interview by returning to the fundamental reason he believes https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/monthly-program";>people should own precious metals.

Investors don't need to predict the exact date when the monetary system will change.

They need to be positioned before confidence changes.

Morgan believes that change in confidence is already occurring and accelerating.

His framework is straightforward. Gold provides monetary insurance. Silver provides monetary insurance combined with industrial leverage.

For investors interested in precious metals equities, Morgan believes carefully selected mining companies can provide additional opportunities. But equities also introduce additional risk.

That's why his preferred starting point remains physical metal.

"The least risk take is physical metal," Morgan said, describing it as the foundation of his approach to precious metals investing.

For Morgan, the surge in gold and silver isn't simply another commodity rally. It reflects a deeper question increasingly confronting investors, institutions, and central banks alike.

When confidence in promises to pay begins to erode, what constitutes real money?

Morgan believes the market is increasingly providing its answer.

Gold Winning, Dollar Losing; David Morgan Issues Silver Alert

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear from our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David tells us why he believes we’re witnessing the playing out of a battle between gold & silver and the U.S. Treasury & credit markets as the safest and most trusted investment vehicle – and how central banks growing gold reserves indicate which asset is winning that battle.

David also shares with our audience his thoughts what the silver price will do between now and the end of the year and then tells us whether or not we should expect to see the white metal make a run at a new all-time high in 2027 after the extreme fireworks we saw late last year and during the first month of 2026.

So, stick around for Mike Maharrey’s interview with the man they affectionally dub the Silver Guru as they discuss that and a whole lot more, coming up after this week’s market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Well, precious metals are finishing the week with some serious momentum, and the catalyst this time is coming straight from the U.S. Treasury market.

Gold has surged back toward and even above the $4,600 level and is now up roughly 5% on the week, putting the yellow metal on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Silver is participating in a big way as well, pushing through $69 and trading around the $70 level as we record.

That represents quite a turnaround from the brutal correction precious metals investors endured earlier this summer.

The latest move began after the Treasury Department announced it would substantially increase its purchases of longer-dated Treasury securities through its so-called liquidity support buyback program.

The Treasury will double the maximum size of individual buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity ranges, from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. The expanded program is scheduled to begin September 9th.

Now, Treasury officials can describe this as improving market liquidity or maintaining market plumbing.

But the mechanics aren't particularly complicated.

The Treasury will step into the market and become a larger buyer of older long-term government bonds. More buying pressure means higher bond prices – and higher bond prices mean lower yields.

And the announcement came at a very interesting moment.

The 30-year Treasury yield had climbed as high as 5.34% this week, its highest level since 2007. After the Treasury announced the expanded buybacks, that yield quickly dropped back toward 5.2%.

In other words, the bond market was demanding substantially higher compensation for lending money to Washington for three decades.

This news really fell flat – and rang some alarm bells.

The actual dollar amount involved isn't enormous relative to the roughly $32 trillion Treasury market. But the signal being sent could be much more significant.

The Treasury has demonstrated that when long-term interest rates become sufficiently uncomfortable, the government is prepared to intervene directly in that part of the market.

Precious metals investors immediately took notice.

Gold jumped back above $4,500 following the announcement for the first time in roughly two months. The rally has accelerated since then, with gold approaching $4,600 this morning and silver breaking out to nearly $70.

The dollar has also weakened, with the Dollar Index falling below 99, providing another significant tailwind for gold and silver.

While the Treasury is making these dramatic moves, not the Federal Reserve, it's just another form of government intervention designed to influence interest rates.

And that matters because Washington has an increasingly powerful incentive to prevent its borrowing costs from getting out of control.

The national debt has now crossed an astonishing $40 trillion, while annual federal interest expense has already exceeded $1 trillion.

At some point, the arithmetic becomes very difficult.

The government needs to sell enormous amounts of debt to finance enormous deficits. But investors are increasingly demanding higher yields to absorb that debt.

Higher yields then make servicing the debt even more expensive, requiring still more borrowing.

That creates an obvious incentive for policymakers to find ways to push those yields back down.

And that's where this week's development becomes particularly interesting for precious metals investors.

Gold doesn't pay interest. So, all else being equal, rising real interest rates tend to make bonds more attractive relative to gold.

But if policymakers begin actively suppressing long-term yields while inflation remains elevated, the equation changes dramatically.

The return available on government debt becomes less attractive, while concerns about currency debasement and fiscal sustainability become more pronounced.

That is almost tailor-made for gold.

And the market appears to understand that.

Even with the 10-year Treasury yield still hovering near 4.7% this morning, gold and silver are surging. That suggests investors aren't merely trading a few basis points of movement in interest rates. They're beginning to focus on the larger fiscal picture.

There are still plenty of crosscurrents.

Oil remains elevated amid continuing tensions with Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices could keep inflation pressures alive, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary stance than markets would otherwise expect.

Fed officials have also continued to signal that another rate hike remains possible if inflation refuses to cooperate.

So, this isn't necessarily a straight-line move higher for the metals.

But the development in the Treasury market this week may be giving investors a glimpse of a much bigger problem.

Washington is caught between high inflation on one side and an increasingly expensive mountain of debt on the other.

Allow interest rates to rise too far, and servicing $40 trillion in debt becomes increasingly painful.

Push rates artificially lower, and you risk weakening the dollar, encouraging inflation, and driving investors toward alternative stores of value.

Gold benefits from that dilemma either way.

And increasingly, so does silver.

After lagging during portions of the recent precious metals move, silver has come roaring back, climbing toward $70 and compressing the gold-to-silver ratio to around 66.

So, as we close out the week, investors should keep an eye not only on gold and silver prices, but on the bond market.

The message coming from Washington this week was significant.

When long-term borrowing costs get uncomfortable enough, the government is willing to intervene.

And with $40 trillion in debt and counting, this won't be the last time policymakers find themselves trying to keep a lid on interest rates.

For precious metals investors, that may ultimately be the biggest story of all.

Well before we get to our conversation with David Morgan, let’s take a look at the specifics of the weekly market action here and where we stand at the moment.

Gold is up about $230 to check in at $4,618 advancing a robust 5.3% now since last Friday’s close. Silver is oscillating on either side of $70 and currently trades above it at $70.18, up nearly $5 on the week or 7.3%.

Turning to the PGMs, platinum is showing an outsized gain of 7.9% and comes in at $1,893, while palladium is up a more muted 2.0% to trade at $1,360 an ounce.

And finally, copper appears to be making a run back towards its all-time high of roughly $6.80. Dr Copper, as they call it, currently checks in now at $6.58 per pound.

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview with a metals market insider.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings. I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by David Morgan. David is a macro economist and publisher of the Morgan Report and fantastic analyst and a great guy to boot. How are you doing today, David?

David Morgan: Doing well. First interview today. It's good to see you and glad to be back.

Mike Maharrey: Well, it's nice to be the first, I guess. I'll get you warmed up for bigger and better things down the road or something. I just kind of want to start with just a little bit of an overview. It's been a pretty good month for both gold and silver. As we're recording this, we have gold pretty solidly over $4,500 an ounce and silver's knocking on the door of $69. And I'm curious just how you see the overall market right now. Is this kind of a signal of maybe we're breaking out of this sideways pattern that we've been in over the last few months? Or is it too early to say that with any kind of certainty?

David Morgan: Well, every day that goes by, it's easier to have more certainty. I've said in the past, but the market's proving one of my favorite statements. The market knows more than me. We broke out some time ago. There's little doubt about the levels that I chose, which was below 60 wouldn't last long. So far that's proven to be true. Once we got a solid print above 60 and maintained it, that was a breakout. Unlikely a fake out. Gold was the 4,000 level. It touched under there just barely a couple times, a few times, and we're above that. And now we're substantially above those. I mean, 4,500 gold, 10% of 4,000 is 400, 500 above it. So 10% move in a few weeks, obviously better than what you get on a T-bill. Same thing with silver. I will say that I still think there's a slight possibility, and I kind of said it from the get-go, that we could get a spike low where something happens in the bond auction or interest rates or in the straight removes or some crazy thing, the overused term black swan, and all of a sudden we get a real sharp punch in the mouth, so to speak.

I was saying that earlier with the idea that we could see maybe touch that 4,000 level in gold and maybe low 60s in silver or below 60 even. I'm going to revise that and maybe the market will prove this wrong. As much strength as we've had now in the weakest seasonality, which is August, we're doing this strong. I now think that if we were to get that sharp spike low, that it would not reach those levels. In other words, gold could go from 4,500 to 42 and somebody could go from wherever it's at to 62 and a half or something. So, I'll just leave it at that. I mean, the main thing I think that Money Metals does a great job of, and I've done my best, and that is try to stay away from the day-to-day moves. Look at it from a long-term perspective.

If you save in real money, you're going to come out in the long run. Unfortunately, some people buy at a high and their long run is six months because something happens. They got to get a car repair or whatever. And I empathize with those people, but the main idea I put in this 10 rules of silver investing was dollar cost average, take the emotion out of it, build your wealth slowly over time. Very few people get rich quick. And a lot of people that do get rich quick lose it. You look at some of these NFL guys that were in the league for only a couple years. I mean, Jamarcus Russell, I'm a Raiders fan. Most people aren't Raiders fans. I have no idea what I'm talking about. But he was the number one pick that we had for quarterback eons ago. And now this year we got Fernando Mendoza as the number one pick.

The point being is I think that Russell got like $40 million and he's broke. And some of these lottery winners are broke. So I don't want to harp on it too much, Mike. But honestly, hard earned money, you stack it a coin at a time, 10 coins at a time, whatever it might be, and you know it took effort to earn it, but you're building wealth over time.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. That's a really good point and something I try to emphasize as well. I'm more than happy to get rich slowly. That'll work for me. And I think it's a really good point. It is easy to get caught up in the fluctuations that are caused by every headline. And that kind of brings me to something that I've kind of been thinking about. You look at the day-to-day price movements and you see these kind of spikes in metals whenever we get good news on the Iran conflict, people are pleased about that. They feel like maybe that's a little lower of an inflation threat. And then when we get bad war news, that'll sell off. And to me, that kind of signals that the underlying bullish factors that were supporting the precious metals markets before this war began are still in place. And they're maybe being papered over a little bit by the day to day headlines in the war news.

Is that a fair take in your mind? Am I on the right track there?

David Morgan: Yeah, I'll go a little bit deeper or maybe look at it differently. But I think the war, I was thinking about this before the interview. I think we're at a point in time now, and it's called a tipping point or a paradigm shift or whatever. I'll make a big deal. But as you said, Mike, look, I think we're now at a place where we're at a, I'll call it a war or a battle. Let me use the word battle, between what is the safest, most trusted, most confident investment class for a monetary system. And that's simple. It's the US treasury market, the credit markets where it's gold or gold and silver, you could say. Or you could say it's all the credit markets, all the sovereign nations that's issue bonds.

But that has proven throughout time to always fail. And the market is telling us, if you know where to look, that gold has won or gold is winning, I should say. Why? Well, for number one, and this is common knowledge among gold bugs or people that pay attention, that the central bank holdings, number one holdings, as far as reserve assets are concerned, is now gold, not credit markets. Not a promise to pay something in the future. With that promise that they're going to pay is going to basically take advantage of your down payment. Or maybe I should say it better more accurately. When you buy your $1,000 bond for $1,000, you're almost guaranteed to not get the same purchasing power five years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years from now. And because of that fact, I'm going to buy gold and preserve my wealth there, not in the credit markets.

And since the whole system is based on credit, I mean, there are very few businesses that are wholly owned, no debt whatsoever, almost all doing a spread basically between the cost of money that they borrow and how much money they make in the business. So, if they have a million dollars owed every quarter, they better be making a million plus something to service their debt. And that's the system at large. Yeah, there's a few exceptions, but so few. So, I elaborated on it. I hope that helped to pound it in because if I am correct, and it's a hypothesis, that the banks are showing their hand. Okay, we got to see their ace in the hole. And now the general and the sophisticated investors have woken up to it. The institutions are perhaps seeing it. And I think the confirmation I'll call it, Michael, is mining shares.

I think if we see institutions come into the heavy hitter mining shares, the new months, the barracks, the Wheaton Precious Metals, the Franco-Nevada’s in size, then I think that would be confirmation of what I just said. Feed it back to you. You think we're there? I'm biased. I mean, I've been studying this market for four decades plus, and I know what happens at the end. And the real debate is, will I be around that long? But seriously, am I overstating the case? What do you think?

Mike Maharrey: No, I don't think you are at all. And I think a tug of war is a great way to put it. And I've seen other analysts, I can't remember who said it, but several months ago they said that gold is going to be the last safe haven standing. And so you're not alone in this. I don't think you're biased and I don't think you're off base at all. That actually kind of sets me up for the next thing that I wanted to ask you about. What do you make of the treasury department's move yesterday to basically double their buybacks of long-term bonds to. I mean, to me, it seems like desperation. We've got to figure out something to push these high long-term rates down a little bit. And of course they're calling it, oh, this is just to fix the plumbing. It's always about the plumbing.

I don't think we have a plumbing problem. I think there's a bigger one than that, but what do you make of this move?

David Morgan: I agree with you. So, let's just break it down a little bit further. So, when you're at auction for selling the 30-year bond or the 20 or 10-year note or whatever, it's a bid ask spread. So, someone says, "Okay, I'm going to offer you this interest rate for this 30-year bond." And the market says, "Well, I think your inflation rate's too high. I'm not going to accept that. I will accept this." And so the interest rate gets bid higher. So I'll do it in my head because I mean the exact. It changes daily, but it's 4.87, so I'll run it up to five. So the market said, no, no one's buying it at a 5% yield. So now it's offered at 5.1% yield. And that means that the bonds become less valuable because when interest rates go high, bonds lose value, not face value, but market value.

Well, to prevent that from happening, you're going to send in your own team at the auction and your own team has now doubled. And so when the offer's at this, oh yeah, of course we'll buy them at that price. So it's manipulating the market. It's controlling the yield curve, and it really isn't how a free capital market system should work. The market should determine what the cost of money is. And if you don't trust the value in the future, then you bid up the yield. But that isn't what they're doing. They're fixing the plumbing, which means the fix is in.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I agree completely. I mean, when you've got $40 trillion in debt, which is what the federal government now holds, you can't afford higher yields. You can't afford to pay that interest out. They're already well over a trillion dollars for interest expense just in the year alone. So yeah, to me, that's what it looks like, but they're trying really hard to sell it as everything's no big deal. So let's talk a little bit specifically about silver. I talked to Michael DiRienzo over at the Silver Institute last week, and he's pretty bullish despite the correction and whatnot. And he actually said that he could see the possibility of new records in the not too distance future. So how do you see the silver market as we kind of move towards the end of the year? And what do you think it's going to take to say, let's say we're trying to get silver back to $100.

Do you think that's feasible by year end? And what would require to get there?

David Morgan: I do think it's possible. I'll be consistent. I've said on most all the interviews I've had over the last month or so, I don't expect more than maybe $78, $82 something in that range. But silver surprises everybody, even me. I mean, I've just got more experience in the silver market than most on the planet, but that's because of my age. No, it is monetary demand that drives the market. Yes, industrial demand's extremely important, but it doesn't really fluctuate that much in a given year. Although in the last 25 years it's gone from 35% to 60% in the total market. So obviously the trend is more and more and more and more industrial use, but in any given year, it's not going to have that big an influence. In other words, it's going to be 60% this year plus or minus 1%. But monetary demand can go cuckoo.

Now, what happened in those latter months of last year and the first month this year was industrial demand that drove it. Now it coupled with monetary demand. So they kind of legged on each other as I've mentioned in many interviews. What happens when industry and investors are fighting for the same thousand ounce bar? Well, we couldn't saw what happened. The price skyrocketed. And so will that happen again? Yes, it will. Will that type of event happen before the end of this year? I doubt it. However, I think we're going to get in that steady Eddie kind of grinding higher, maybe a spike low here and there to kind of shake out the weekends or give people second. I was going to buy it. I was going to buy a hit 80. I'm going to buy it. And then for some reason they never pick up the phone and it's down 10 bucks because of X, Y, Z.

Oh, I'm so glad I didn't buy it. And then they don't come into the market. But if you're just on a plan of buying a hundred bucks every month or 200 or whatever you set for yourself, pay yourself first. If you can, which most people these days can't, I'm empathetic to it. There were times in my life I couldn't. But the point being, if you can pay yourself first and the rule of thumb is 10%. So if you're netting, I don't know these days, I haven't went for a wage for 35 years, but if you're making, I don't know, 4,000 a month and then you could put 400 away, which would be hard to do, I get it, but that would be optimum, I guess. Anyway, I'm drifting off, bring me back, but I think we will have stronger markets by year end. I do think the highs are not in.

I do believe we're going to see record highs in both metals, but I don't see it this year. I see probably 2027, 2028. And I think by that time, and maybe I'm guessing, we will see a new system of some way, shape, or form that the banking elite said, "We got to fix this debt. Here's how we're doing it. We're starting the resetting at zero. All aboard the one world digitally based blockchain." I don't know.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, I could see something like that for sure. Looking more in depth at the silver market, you mentioned the industrial demand, and that's kind of a hard thing for me to parse out. And DiRienzo and I talked about it a little bit, but of course you've got the tug of war with the higher price. That obviously is incentivizing the end users of silver, the solar panel makers and the folks that are building computer circuit boards. They're looking for alternatives. How do you see that industrial demand playing out in this higher price environment? Do you think that substitution can significantly lower that silver demand or are we kind of at a point where they need the silver and to some degree it's not as price sensitive as we might think? How do you factor all of that in?

David Morgan: Yeah, well, did a pretty good look and not really hugely in depth on the copper substitution idea for solar panels. And my conclusion thus far is that yes, there will be, and there are instances of using copper, but it doesn't really replace silver. I mean, you're going to have less silver in a copper-based panel, but it's like silver plated or whatever. Silver's still in the panel, in other words. But the problem is what's the longevity? So if you look at the total economics, if you sell a panel for one half X because it's copper-based, but it'll last five years instead of 25 years, you've now shot yourself in the foot. So the problem is doing that test long enough to know what you've really got. Because if you substitute copper, and again, it only lasts half as long as a silver panel, you're out of business.

No one's going to want that, and that's an unknown. On top of that, let's just do a thought experiment and say that there's a breakthrough and graphene issues or something. There's enough pent-up demand between batteries, robotics, the electrical build-out that's necessary for this AI infrastructure, semiconductors that are being used more and more, and all things electrical and electronic. So even if you were to cut the solar industry down by something substantive, I think it would be more than made up with those other key things I just mentioned. It's really hard to get away from silver in a high-tech society. The robotics thing would take a while, but it's going to be there. Right now, I'm doing a study on it, Michael, and the best sources I can find, and believe me, it's a lot of conjecture because there aren't many robots out there. It's between 20 and 30 grams per robot.

Thirty grams of silver, as you know, and most of the audiences are roughly one ounce. So 10 years from now, if you've got a hundred million robots per annum, that's a hundred million ounces of silver every year. Now, I'm not saying we're going to do 100 million robots. I don't know. The market knows. My point being is it will have an effect, but it won't be for a while because a one ounce per, that's a lot for a cell phone or something like that. Of course, there's nothing near that amount in the cell phone. My point being that there is a substantial amount in a robot, how many robots are we going to have, and how long is it going to take to get there? Nonetheless, it is another demand on the silver market that's barely in existence right now.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I just had this apocalyptic vision of people mugging robots to get their silver.

David Morgan: Well, someday they will put the humanoid robots in the landfills to dig out all the circuit boards that they can to get the silver back.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, no doubt. Stefan and I were having a conversation earlier today about silver premiums in Asia, and he's seen some reports, which he thinks are a little bit wild of multi-dollar premiums over there right now. He was kind of maybe doubting it was quite that high, but I'm curious if you followed that at all, what you're seeing in terms of Asian premiums and why there would be those premiums if they do indeed exist.

David Morgan: Yeah, that's one that I'll give you the best of my ability. Doesn't mean it's a hundred percent correct. It's as accurate as I can find so far. So there's several factors. One is there's a tariff situation from their side. The second thing is that there's currency fluctuations, so you got to hedge that. The other one is a trust factor. So if you look at what they're going to add to the price just for coming into China, that's not the premium, that's something you got to pay. Then you've got, well, what is the currency going to do between the renminbi and the US dollar while it's being shipped? So, that's the cost. Then you do have shipping costs. So if you factor in all the costs, and I probably left one out, all of a sudden that quote unquote premium isn't the premium. It's like four other costs and maybe a dollar premium on the metal itself.

So, if you look at all of it logically and objectively, as I just outlined, are you going to ship a thousand-ounce bar or several of them across the ocean to China for a $1 spread when silver moves so much as a dozen a day? And the answer's probably not. So, I wish I had a really definitive answer, but that's more than you probably heard from anybody else.

Mike Maharrey: No, that's actually very illuminating. And you do, you forget about all of the cost involved. It's not like you can just teleport silver across the world. And of course that was part of the issue that we saw back in October of last year with the first squeeze was the issue of too much metal in the US and not enough in London or Asia. So that's always a dynamic I think that maybe is a little bit understated. Let me kind of get you out on this one. This is just kind of a fun one to let you vamp on whatever you want. But I'm curious if there's something right now that you're following in the markets that most people in the mainstream aren't going to hear about if they're just watching CNBC or Fox Business. What's something that's kind of got your attention right now that's significantly factoring into your forecasting?

David Morgan: That's a great question. I don't know if I have a great answer. One I think is that I was very much in the bearish camp on the US stock market over the longer term. In other words, it's so overvalued by any metric you want to use that it almost has to or it must fall, it must correct. There must be a signal where this market goes back to fair value instead of being so extremely overvalued. And that idea has changed on me some time ago. I still think that's the most likely case, but not inevitable. Before I thought it was inevitable. Now I don't because if we're going into this highly inflationary environment and this lack of trust we talked about earlier in the interview where we're looking at who wins gold or a promise to pay, we could get where the stock market does, let's say a nominal Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina stock market where it just keeps going up.

But the value of the currency is depreciating faster than the appreciation of the stock market. That's what you see in all these hyperinflations. Now I want to be consistent. I do not think that the US dollar will hyperinflate. Although beef prices went up 9% in a month. Well, that by definition would be a hyperinflation. Now whether it goes up 9% next month, I don't know. They're closing down what, three major beef processing plants in the United States. That's

Mike Maharrey: Wild.

David Morgan: I mean, things are going to get harder and harder. And the other thought that popped in my head since you've giving me free reign, and thank you, is an article I wrote for the paid subscribers, I don't know, about four months ago. All inflations end in deflation. And that's kind of a hard one to bite on if you haven't lived it. I have not. My parents did – were in the Depression. But we will see a point where the money does what it's most likely to do, which is inflate further. People don't trust it. There's some kind of a reset. But normally in those resets, the new system is the money, whatever that is. Of course, we know money is gold and silver, but I'll call it the monetary unit, whatever that is, that digit, that token, that whatever is scarcer and more difficult to obtain. And perhaps even if it's static, okay, we start at zero, everybody gets a UBI, universal basic income of 2,000 digital units a month.

There's not as much beef to buy. There's not as many pickle choices. Getting grapes from South America only happens in certain stores with very wealthy client base, that type of thing. A high lifestyle is a good measure of whether you're wealthy or not. It's not how many pieces of paper you've collected over your lifetime. It's what are your choices in life? What are your choices of transportation, living quarters, entertainment, all that stuff. And as that contracts, and food is like your number two cost outside of living. That is the way most of the world lives, America, for those that haven't been overseas or seen it with their own eyes. Wake up. Sorry, I ran a bit. Michael, I know you'll let me. And that'll be, I think, what we're already facing. Let's not kid ourselves. A lot of the middle class is like, "Well, I'm not going out to karaoke every other weekend because hamburgers costing eight bucks a pound.”

David Morgan: I can't go to karaoke and have a hamburger." Well, guess what? You're going to probably choose to eat more than you're going to choose to go for entertainment. I think I made my point, but you can have more cash and a lower lifestyle just because of availability. And that's something I think maybe I'm thinking outside the box. I certainly know you don't hear that on CNBC.

Mike Maharrey: No, that's a really good point too. And something that I try to emphasize from time to time. We're so money-focused in our way we talk about the economy and we talk about wealth. And you make a great point. It's not about the paper units. That doesn't tell you anything. It's ultimately about stuff. The economy's about stuff. I don't care about the paper. I want to be able to get a hamburger. I want to be able to go sing karaoke or whatever. And those papers represent my labor and my ability to obtain things. And I think people forget that. We get so tied up into the dollars that we lose track of the reality of the economy, which is stuff. And then the other thing that I thought of as you were talking is the inflationary impact on asset prices. And I think we've kind of evolved into this world where inflation just means consumer prices are going up.

The point being that inflation also shows up in other places. When you have an increasing money supply, it doesn't necessarily only show up in consumer prices. It also shows up in asset prices, real estate, stocks, and it can give you this kind of fake wealth effect. You feel like you've got all these digits, but you don't have much more stuff. So great points on all of that. And now I'm rambling, so I'm going to stop and I'm going to let you tell folks where they can. I'm the Morgan Report, and you mentioned that paid subscribers get some pretty good analysis. So tell folks how they could avail themselves to that if they're interested.

David Morgan: All right. Well, you can go to the landing page, which is themorganreport.com. Three-step process. Step one is get the free newsletter. Step two is watch two documentaries for free. And step three is come behind and paywall if you want to be a paid subscriber or have a consultation. I consult with anybody that's willing to pay me. The purpose of owning Precious Metals is not the exact date the monetary system changes. It's to be positioned before confidence changes. And as we discussed, it's changing and changing more rapidly, more often by more numbers of people. Goal provides monetary insurance. Silver provides monetary insurance with industrial leverage. Own the physical foundation first, then carefully selected equities if you're interested in the work that I do primarily, but you have to be able to accept the additional risk. The least risk take is physical metal, which I've always advocated as your starting point.

Mike Maharrey: Wonderful advice. And I hope folks do check out the Morgan report, check out your work because you're fantastic. One of the finer analysts that are out there. And I wish you were out there on CNBC and Fox Business instead of some of these clowns were subjected to on a daily basis. So appreciate you coming on this show and taking time out of your day to hang out with me. It's always a pleasure to talk to you. And I definitely appreciate everything you do. So thanks a lot, man.

David Morgan: Well, thanks for the kind words, and it was fun to be with you. I'm looking forward to the next one.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. We will have you back in the not too distant future. Until then, take care of yourself and be well.

David Morgan: Will do. All

Wonderful stuff as always from our good friend David Morgan, and it was certainly great to have him back on again. I trust you enjoyed that as I did.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And remember to tune in as well to the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey.

To check out any of our audio programs just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/";>Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

Brits Regret Not Buying Gold But Didn't Learn Their Lesson

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

If you live long enough, you’re going to have some regrets.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, as my dad was fond of saying.

The thing about regrets is that they were totally avoidable. That’s why they’re regrets. We made a bad decision, a questionable call, a wrong turn.

But regrets aren’t all bad. We can learn from them and avoid making the same mistake twice.

I say all of this because I ran across a story about regrets the other day.

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One-third of adults in the UK regret not investing in gold in the past five years. Thirty percent say they regret missing out on silver.

This is according to research conducted by the Royal Mint.

I understand why they feel this way. Over the last five years, https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>the gold price has increased by nearly 150 percent, while https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver has gained almost 200 percent.

Meanwhile, only 8 percent of UK adults kept any of their savings in gold, and only 3 percent held any silver.

As the Royal Mint put it, many UK adults feel a sense of “missed opportunity.”

The polling also revealed that Brits are worried about the future of their money. Seventy-three percent said they were concerned about how global conflicts and economic instability could affect the value of their money.

The concern about monetary depreciation is certainly legitimate. However, I think they’re missing the culprit. It’s not some nebulous global conflict or vague economic instability stealing their purchasing power. It’s their government running the money-printing press.

Here’s where the story goes completely sideways.

Brits recognize that their purchasing power is declining. They see that both gold and silver could have shielded them from this monetary debasement. They regret making a bad choice by not investing in gold and silver.

But they failed to learn the lesson.

Only a quarter of poll respondents said they would likely put savings in precious metals over the next five years. Sixty percent said they would still choose to keep their money in a checking account.

In the immortal words of Shoresy, “So dumb!”

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I suppose in five years, the Royal Mint will publish the results of a new poll indicating that a bunch of Brits regret not buying gold over the last five years.

Sure, folks missed an opportunity to purchase gold at around $1,800 per ounce five years ago. But the opportunity itself is still right there in front of them. Because here’s the thing. In five years, people will almost certainly look back and yearn for $4,500 gold.

That’s because monetary debasement will continue in both the UK and the good ol’ US of A. Both countries’ central banks have a 2 percent inflation target.

https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/05/inflation-is-the-plan-004459";>That’s the plan – to devalue your money and rob you of 2 percent of your purchasing power every single year. That may not sound like a lot, but it adds up. Every 5 years, your money loses a little more than 10 percent of its purchasing power.

My point is that gold and silver will almost certainly climb higher over the next five years because monetary debasement is more likely to speed up than to slow down.

Here’s the thing about regrets. They’re avoidable. You just have to make the right decision the first time. But when you make the wrong call, let regret be your teacher. Don’t make the same mistake twice!

Call 800-800-1865 today and talk to a Money Metals precious metals specialist. They can help you figure out how to avoid future regrets.

India Gold Market Showing Signs of Recovery

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

After facing significant headwinds over the last couple of months, a recovery seems to be brewing in the Indian gold market.

India ranks as the second-largest gold market behind https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/18/chinese-gold-demand-was-steady-in-july-005147";>China.

After domestic gold corrected sharply in June, the price stabilized in July and began recovering in early August.

In rupee terms, gold gained about 7 percent through the first two weeks of this month.

Rupee strength offset the rise in international gold prices, which gained about 9 percent through the same period.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/india-gold-price-aug26.png"; width="700" height="373" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

According to the World Gold Council, “Shifting monetary policy expectations, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed inflows into gold ETFs supported gold prices, contributing to the recent recovery in the gold market.”

Even with the price recovery, gold is still selling at a modest discount in India, indicating ample supply. According to the WGC, the exchange of old gold jewelry for new has protected supply. However, the discount has narrowed from as high as $100 per ounce in mid-May and early June to around $45 in mid-August.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/gold-discount-india-aug-26.png"; width="700" height="465" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

After two straight weak months, gold imports rose in July, signaling stronger demand.

Gold imports doubled, rising from 20 tonnes in June to an estimated 40-45 tonnes in July.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/india-gold-imports-july-26.png"; width="700" height="418" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Last year's surging gold price created significant headwinds for the Indian gold jewelry market. With the price moderately lower, the World Gold Council reported that jewelry demand has improved.

“Industry feedback suggests that deferred purchases returned to the market, resulting in higher footfall and a recovery in demand beyond essential wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers have reportedly begun receiving higher order flows, and inventory replenishment by jewelers has picked up ahead of the festive season, suggesting growing confidence in seasonal demand.”

Meanwhile, physical gold investment demand eased after the recent correction; however, it was robust enough to support the market. According to WGC analysis, “Lower prices continued to attract investors seeking strategic exposure to gold, while the recent rebound appears to have revived interest.”

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ETF flows also signal resilient investment demand.

Gold holdings by funds based in India increased by 1 tonne valued at ₹15.6 billion ($163 million).

Indian ETFs currently hold 120 tonnes of gold with assets under management (AUM) totaling ₹1,733 billion ($18.1 billion).

ETF investor participation increased by 57,000 new portfolios, raising the total number of Indian ETF accounts to 12.53 million.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=evkq4O9Ibe1FDdF6";>owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

Meanwhile, trading volumes in July picked up, with volumes on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX India) rising to 14.9 tonnes, up from an average of 13.5 tonnes over the previous three months.

Looking ahead, World Gold Council analysts say demand appears to be improving, raising expectations for a stronger festival season.

“While elevated prices may continue to influence jewelry purchases, investment demand remains supportive.”

The $40 Trillion National Debt in Perspective

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

154 days.

That’s how long it took the Trump administration to add another $1 trillion to the national debt.

As of August 18, the national debt stood at $40,047,425,768,420.22.

Let’s try to put the debt into some perspective.

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Over the last 22 weeks, the federal government has added roughly $6.5 billion in new debt every single day.

If the U.S. government folded the debt into a single 30-year bond at 5 percent, Uncle Sam would need to accumulate roughly $9.13 billion per day to pay off the bond at term.

According to the National Debt Clock, every U.S. citizen would need to write a check for $116,487 to pay off the debt.

Of course, many Americans don’t pay any federal income taxes. If only taxpayers foot the bill, they would each need to fork out $360,794.

The debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 122.71 percent.

At $30 trillion, the national debt is bigger than the combined annual GDP of China, Germany, India, Japan, and the UK.

The pace of debt accumulation over the last several years is truly astounding.

When President Trump took office in 2024, the debt stood at $36.2 trillion. In other words, the President has added around $3.8 trillion to the debt so far during his second term.

When Biden took up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the national debt stood at just under $27.8 trillion. Biden’s share of the debt totaled around $8.4 trillion. That’s just a little more than the $7.8 trillion piled on by Trump 1.0.

Since the beginning of Trump’s first term, Team Trump-Biden has roughly doubled the national debt!

Compare that to the former champion of overspending – President Barack Obama. He was pilloried as a big spender because he was the first president to generate $1 trillion deficits. He managed this feat three times during the Great Recession.

We can get a sense of the accelerating debt accumulation by looking at how many days it took to add another $1 trillion.

The national debt hit $34 trillion in January 2024. Ten months later, it eclipsed $35 trillion in November 2024.

From there, it took 188 days for the debt to grow from $35 trillion to $36 trillion.

It took another 265 days to reach $37 trillion. But don’t be fooled. The borrowing didn’t slow down between $36 and $37 trillion. It was just that the federal government bumped up against the debt ceiling on January 1, 2025. As a result, it couldn’t borrow any money until the enactment of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion as of July 1.

At that time, the national debt stood at $36.2 trillion. It took less than two months for the federal government to borrow more than $800 billion, pushing the debt over $37 trillion. Barely two months later, we were at $38 trillion. Uncle Sam increased the debt by another trillion in 150 days, and here we are today, at $40 trillion, just 154 days later.

All this debt is expensive.

July interest payments pushed total interest expense to $1.17 trillion through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026. That was up 15.5 percent compared to the same period in fiscal ’25.

Interest on the national debt cost $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025. That was up 7.3 percent over 2024.

If you wonder why I think the Fed won’t be able to hold interest rates higher for longer – this is the reason.

It’s also almost certainly the reason the Treasury Department https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-005150";>decided to put its big fat thumb on the bond market with increased buybacks.

When you boil it all down, the federal government is functionally insolvent. Money printing is the only thing keeping the ship afloat.

Earlier this year, Forbes argued, “The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming impossible to ignore.”

And yet the mainstream continues to ignore it. As already noted, the Treasury released the data to the sound of crickets.

When we hit these milestones, a few people sit up and take notice, but most people shrug. They just continue as if everything were fine.

Ladies and gentlemen, everything is not fine.

U.S. Treasury Intervenes in Bond Market to Drive Yields Lower

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a transparent effort to manipulate the bond market, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the size of its “liquidity support” buybacks.

According to the announcement, the Treasury Department will increase buybacks of Treasury securities in the 10-20 and 20-30-year maturity sectors from a maximum of $2 billion to $4 billion per operation.

The expanded buyback operations will begin September 9 and run through November 4.

The Mechanics of the Bond Buyback

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In practice, the Treasury will purchase older long-term bonds on the open market and retire them. This increased demand will raise prices and lower yields. This benefits the federal government by lowering interest rates on newly issued debt on the long end of the curve.

The Treasury will fund the buybacks by selling shorter-term notes and bonds. In effect, the Treasury will borrow money to buy debt from people who already lent it money so it can borrow more money from other people at a slightly lower interest rate.

This is imperative given that the federal government is already https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>shelling out over $1 trillion annually in interest expense.

If it sounds a little like a Ponzi scheme, well…

The move worked. The 30-year Treasury yield closed on Tuesday (Aug. 18) and stood at 5.31. Intraday, it hit 5.34 percent, the highest yield since 2007. At close on Wednesday, it dipped to 5.19 percent.

What Are the Ramifications of Yield Curve Intervention?

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To put the operation in simple terms, the market is saying, "We require a much higher yield to hold very long-term U.S. government debt." The Treasury responded by becoming a larger buyer in exactly the section of the curve under the most stress.

In the big scheme of things, the $4 billion intervention is relatively small within a $32 trillion bond market. However, it sends a signal that the Treasury is willing to step in and manipulate the long end of the yield curve.

It also reveals that the Treasury Department is worried about the state of the bond market and its ability to continue funding the federal government's borrow-and-spend binge.

Treasury describes the operation as a “liquidity intervention” to maintain “market plumbing.” However, we don’t have a “plumbing” problem, and the Treasury Department intervention doesn’t solve the fundamental issue.

Demand for U.S. debt has tanked.

Investors are demanding higher long-term yields due to ever-increasing federal deficits and inflation expectations.

Standard Chartered global head of research Eric Robertsen said he would not describe the increase in yields “as being a function of or exacerbated by irrational market conditions."

"The only conclusion we can draw is ‌that yields reached a level that they don't like, and I think that suggests a willingness to try and control or intervene against natural supply and demand."

The timing of the announcement was telling. The Treasury held a 20-year auction on Wednesday, as yields were coming down.

In other words, it pumped yields down before the auction and ostensibly sold the new bonds at a slightly lower rate than it otherwise would have.

In fact, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0590"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the August quarterly refunding statement announcing upcoming bond issuance revealed the Treasury plans to sell $125 billion in 3-, 10-, and 30-year securities, including a $25 billion 30-year bond.

While buying back old long bonds while continuing to issue new debt can improve liquidity and market functioning, it can’t make the government's financing requirement disappear.

In other words, the federal government must keep borrowing, and the world’s lenders seem to be saying, “no thanks!”

This is evidenced by the fact that the impact of the move seems to have been short-lived. On Thursday morning, the yield on the 30-year Treasury was back up to 5.24 percent.

This kind of yield curve intervention also comes with risks. The Treasury will likely issue more short-term debt to cover the buybacks. This exposes Uncle Sam to refinancing risk if rates on the short end of the curve begin to rise.

The move could also undermine confidence in the bond market if investors take this as a signal that the government cannot tolerate market-clearing long-term rates because of the rising interest expense on the $40 trillion debt.

This is even more problematic given that many analysts believe we are in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>the early stages of a secular bear market in bonds.

Impact on Precious Metals

The fact that the Treasury is willing to step in to suppress yields is bullish for gold and silver.

Since gold is a non-yielding asset, conventional wisdom holds that a higher rate environment is bearish for the yellow metal. Conversely, lower rates tend to create headwinds for gold.

The gold market reacted as one would expect. Gold soared on the news, https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>pushing back above $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday. It was the first time gold rose above that level in two months.

Silver also experienced a strong gain, rising above $68 an ounce.

The optics of this operation matter more right now than the scope. If markets take the Treasury at face value and interpret this as a plumbing fix, it won’t likely have significant impacts. However, if the markets read between the lines and recognize it as transparent rate manipulation to control federal government buying costs, we could see a more significant pivot toward precious metals.

$40 Trillion Debt Black Hole: Is a Financial Crisis Coming?

Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

The United States is closing in on a milestone that would have been almost unimaginable not long ago: $40 trillion in national debt.

That staggering figure framed the latest episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, as host Mike Maharrey examined what he calls the economy’s “debt black hole” and zeroed in on a relatively obscure corner of the financial system that could become a much bigger problem: the $1.4 trillion private credit market.

Maharrey’s central concern is that mounting defaults and deteriorating loans in private credit could spread into the broader financial system. Meanwhile, massive federal deficits and rapidly growing interest expenses are making the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight increasingly difficult.

And against that backdrop, central banks continue accumulating gold.

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Putting $1 Trillion Into Perspective

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Before considering a $40 trillion national debt, Maharrey tried to put just $1 trillion into human terms.

One million seconds equals about 11.5 days. One trillion seconds amounts to roughly 32,000 years. If somebody could count one number every second, reaching one trillion would take approximately 11.5 million days.

Even spending $1 million every day since the birth of Jesus Christ wouldn't exhaust $1 trillion.

Dollar bills placed end-to-end could stretch to the moon and back about 203 times, or wrap around the Earth approximately 3,893 times. A stack of one trillion dollar bills would rise roughly 67,866 miles.

At $3 apiece, $1 trillion could buy roughly 333 billion cups of coffee, while distributing that money across the world would amount to approximately $125 for every person on Earth. Even one trillion grains of rice would weigh around 20,000 metric tons.

And the U.S. national debt is nearly 40 times larger.

The National Debt Approaches $40 Trillion

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As of August 17, Maharrey reported the national debt at approximately $39.987 trillion, putting the government on the verge of crossing the $40 trillion threshold.

But federal debt represents only one piece of the problem. U.S. consumers carry another $5.17 trillion in debt, while corporate borrowing has also climbed to record levels.

Maharrey describes this accumulation as a “debt black hole” — a term he credits to Greg Weldon. Like a real black hole warping everything around it, Maharrey argues that excessive debt distorts monetary policy, bond markets, interest rates, and ultimately the wider economy.

It also helps explain his skepticism that the Federal Reserve can meaningfully raise interest rates and keep them elevated. Higher rates make servicing the existing mountain of debt progressively more expensive.

Washington Runs a $432 Billion Monthly Deficit

The July Treasury statement offered a dramatic illustration of the problem.

The federal government spent $432.31 billion more than it collected in July, producing the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>largest monthly budget deficit since March 2021 and the third-largest monthly deficit on record.

There was an important calendar distortion. Because August began on a weekend, approximately $99 billion in August benefits were paid during July. Adjusting for that shift lowers July's deficit to approximately $333 billion.

Even then, the deficit was 18% higher than the prior year.

More significantly, July pushed the fiscal 2026 deficit to roughly $1.8 trillion, with August and September still remaining in the fiscal year. The deficit had already surpassed the total for the previous fiscal year, and Maharrey said Washington was on pace to eclipse $2 trillion.

That is occurring not amid a Great Recession or pandemic shutdown, but while the economy is ostensibly expanding.

Federal Spending Surges 22%

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Tariff refunds contributed to July's ugly numbers.

Following the Supreme Court's ruling against tariffs imposed unilaterally by the Trump administration, the federal government refunded $33.38 billion in tariffs during July. That drove net tariff revenue to negative $8.55 billion for the month.

Earlier tariff collections of roughly $30 billion to $40 billion per month had helped mask Washington's underlying spending problem. Once that revenue disappeared and refunds began flowing, the fiscal picture deteriorated.

The federal government spent $766.31 billion in July, a whopping 22% increase from July 2025. Even excluding the roughly $99 billion calendar adjustment, spending totaled approximately $677.31 billion.

That relentless borrowing brings another increasingly expensive problem: interest.

Interest on the Debt Tops $1 Trillion

Interest expense has become the second-largest category in the federal budget, trailing only Social Security. Washington now spends more servicing its debt than it spends on either national defense or Medicare.

The Treasury paid $117.57 billion in interest during July. That was actually below the roughly $185 billion record set in June.

Through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, however, federal interest expense had reached approximately $1.17 trillion, up 15.5% from the comparable period in fiscal 2025.

This creates what Maharrey describes as a vicious feedback loop. Higher interest expenses enlarge deficits. Larger deficits require additional borrowing. That borrowing adds more debt that must itself be serviced at relatively high interest rates.

It is also why Maharrey remains deeply skeptical of predictions that the Fed can aggressively raise rates without creating serious consequences elsewhere in the financial system.

America's $14.45 Trillion Corporate Debt Mountain

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Government and consumer debt aren't alone.

According to Federal Reserve data cited by Maharrey, total U.S. non-financial corporate debt reached $14.45 trillion in the first quarter, approximately 5% higher than a year earlier.

Within that enormous market sits a smaller but increasingly important category: private credit.

Private loans total approximately $1.4 trillion, equivalent to roughly 10% of non-financial corporate debt.

Unlike traditional bank lending, private credit generally involves non-bank lenders funded by institutional investors, pension funds, endowments, wealthy individuals, and other investors. These funds then lend directly to businesses and projects.

Private credit became increasingly important after the 2008 financial crisis, when tougher capital requirements and lending regulations made traditional banks less willing to finance riskier borrowers. Private lenders stepped into the gap.

Investors also poured money into the sector in pursuit of higher yields.

But higher yields generally come with higher risk.

Private Credit Starts Flashing Warning Signs

According to The Wall Street Journal analysis discussed by Maharrey, that risk is becoming increasingly visible.

High-profile defaults, allegations of fraud involving some funds, and concerns about loans made to software companies vulnerable to artificial intelligence disruption began rattling the industry last year.

Investors responded by asking for their money back. Some private credit funds, facing record redemption requests, subsequently restricted redemptions and limited withdrawals.

Despite assurances from fund managers that the problems were overblown, quarterly reports from some of the industry's largest players indicated worsening loan health and investor returns.

Funds overseen by Ares Management, Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, and Golub Capital reported loan defaults reaching their highest levels since 2021, according to the Journal analysis discussed during the episode.

At a Blue Owl fund, for instance, the default rate reached 2.8% during the second quarter, its highest level in at least five years. Nonperforming loans at other funds also reportedly reached five-year highs, surpassing levels experienced when the Federal Reserve was tightening monetary policy during 2023.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings put the overall U.S. private credit default rate at 6% at the end of May.

Fourteen Defaults in One Month

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The problems have thus far been concentrated in certain industries.

According to Maharrey's discussion of the data, private credit defaults have been particularly evident in healthcare, industrial and manufacturing companies, and business services, along with businesses heavily exposed to rising oil prices.

Fitch reported 14 defaults during May alone.

One example cited was Loparex, a manufacturer of plastic film that recently defaulted on its private loan.

But another industry could become particularly consequential: software.

Software companies account for 20% or more of outstanding debt at many private credit funds. If AI disruption produces severe financial stress across that sector, Maharrey warned that it could provide the proverbial bump that shakes an already unstable table.

Funds are also reporting increases in companies placed on internal watch lists — borrowers exhibiting signs of financial trouble before an outright default occurs.

Why a $1.4 Trillion Market Could Matter Much More

At roughly 10% of non-financial corporate debt, private credit might initially seem too small to threaten the broader economy.

History suggests otherwise.

Maharrey compared the situation with the subprime mortgage market before the 2008 financial crisis. At the height of the housing bubble, subprime mortgages represented only around 13% to 15% of all mortgages.

Yet when that relatively small segment collapsed, the damage spread through housing and financial markets, ultimately contributing to the Great Recession.

Financial crises are rarely contained neatly within the sector where trouble begins. Defaults create losses. Losses encourage investors to withdraw capital. Falling liquidity makes refinancing more difficult. That creates additional defaults, which produce still more losses.

Private credit is now facing what Maharrey called a “double whammy” of contracting liquidity and deteriorating loan portfolios.

Higher Rates Could Make Matters Worse

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There is a potentially benign path out.

Losses could moderate if interest rates decline while economic activity remains strong enough to support borrowers — but without simultaneously reigniting inflation.

That's a demanding combination.

Although CPI inflation has moderated, Maharrey noted that it https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/beyond-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-july-2026-005134";>remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. He also argued that inflation cannot be understood through CPI alone, pointing to money supply and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as additional indicators.

If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, financially stressed private borrowers receive little relief.

If the central bank actually raises rates, Maharrey believes private credit stress could intensify considerably.

And if rates fall substantially, inflation could again become a bigger concern.

That is where America's enormous debt burden comes back into the picture. The “debt black hole,” in Maharrey's view, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/15/debt-black-hole-private-credit-markets-showing-signs-of-stress-005142";>increasingly constrains the Fed's room to maneuver.

Gold Above $4,400 and Silver Above $65

Against this unstable financial backdrop, precious metals have rallied.

At the time of the episode, https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold was trading above $4,400 per ounce, while silver was solidly https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>above $65.

Maharrey cautioned that geopolitical headlines, particularly developments surrounding the war in Iran, could produce substantial short-term volatility. Expectations surrounding interest rates also continue to weigh on precious metals.

Nevertheless, he https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/17/three-charts-one-conclusion-005145";>sees continued bullish sentiment underneath those pressures.

More importantly, a serious financial crisis emanating from private credit or another overleveraged sector https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/10/gold-silver-showing-renewed-momentum-005128";>could accelerate investor demand for gold. Maharrey therefore characterized physical precious metals as both an inflation hedge and financial insurance that investors may want to own before a crisis becomes obvious to everybody.

Central Banks Bought 289 Tons of Gold in Q2

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Individual investors aren't the only ones looking toward gold.

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/18/four-reasons-central-banks-are-piling-up-gold-005146";>Central banks have continued buying the metal, and Maharrey identified four major reasons for the trend: geopolitical risk, weaponization of the dollar, deterioration in the U.S. fiscal position, and what he called “regime uncertainty.”

Wars and geopolitical tensions traditionally bolster gold's role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, Western sanctions imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine, including restrictions involving the SWIFT financial system, demonstrated to other countries how dependence on the dollar can create geopolitical vulnerabilities.

That has helped accelerate the broader de-dollarization trend.

America's fiscal trajectory provides another incentive. With federal debt approaching $40 trillion and enormous deficits requiring continual borrowing, foreign governments and central banks have reason to question their exposure to U.S. debt and dollars.

Finally, uncertainty surrounding tariffs, wars, regulations, and U.S. economic policy makes long-term planning more difficult. Gold provides central banks with an asset that doesn't carry the same counterparty exposure.

Central-bank buying slowed during the first quarter amid pressure from high gold prices, but purchases accelerated beginning in April.

Central banks ultimately bought 289 metric tons of gold during the second quarter, nearly five times the Q1 total.

Financial journalist Jamie McGeever, writing in a Reuters opinion piece cited by Maharrey, argued that no single one of these factors necessarily explains gold's resurgence. Taken together, however, they create a powerful case for central-bank diversification into gold.

Debt Doesn't Stay Contained

The private credit market remains far from the levels of distress experienced during the pandemic or the 2015 oil-price collapse. Maharrey wasn't arguing that a crash has already arrived.

His warning was about the conditions developing beneath the surface.

The United States is simultaneously dealing with a national debt approaching $40 trillion, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/10/consumer-borrowing-picked-up-in-june-but-worrisome-trend-persists-005126";>$5.17 trillion in consumer debt, $14.45 trillion in non-financial corporate debt, a federal deficit headed toward $2 trillion, and annualized interest costs already exceeding the trillion-dollar threshold.

Within that environment, a $1.4 trillion private credit market showing worsening loan quality and rising defaults cannot necessarily be dismissed as an isolated problem.

Financial instability often develops gradually before reaching a tipping point. The subprime crisis demonstrated how quickly trouble in one seemingly contained corner of the credit system can spread once confidence and liquidity disappear.

That is the danger Maharrey sees in America's growing “debt black hole.”

The warning signs can accumulate slowly.

The consequences can arrive all at once.

How the Debt Black Hole Is Warping the Economy: Private Credit Market Edition

Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

There is a giant debt black hole, and it is warping everything around it in the economy.

When we mention the debt black hole, you probably think of the national debt first. It is on the verge of eclipsing $40 trillion. But consumers and corporations are also leveraged to the hilt.

In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey exposes the ramifications of the debt problem by highlighting the growing risk of a private credit market meltdown and explaining how it could impact the broader financial markets and the economy.

He also proposes four reasons why central banks are piling up gold and replacing dollars. (These two themes overlap!)

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Mike opens the show by putting the number "1-trillion" in perspective.

There are 1 million seconds in 11.5 days. A trillion seconds is about 32,000 years.
If you could say one number every second, it would take about 11.5 million days to count to 1 trillion.
If you had spent $1 million every day since the birth of Christ, you still wouldn't have spent $1 trillion.
If you line up dollar bills end-to-end, you could go to the moon and back around 203 times with $1 trillion. You could wrap them around the Earth about 3,893 times.
If you stacked 1 trillion $1 bills, the dollar tower would reach 67,866 miles.
If a cup of coffee costs $3, you could buy 333 billion cups of coffee with $1 trillion.
If you had 1 trillion dollars, you could give every person on Earth approximately $125.
One trillion grains of rice would weigh about 20,000 metric tons.

"So, that's a trillion. And the national debt is nearly 40 times bigger."

Mike asserts that the growing debt bubble is the most significant impact on the economy that most people don't seem all that concerned about.

But not just the national debt. There’s $5.17 trillion in consumer debt in the US alone. And then there’s the corporate debt, which is also at record levels.

"I call it the debt black hole. Greg Weldon came up with that term, and I wish it would go viral. It’s a perfect description of the debt situation. A black hole has such strong gravitational pull that it literally warps everything around it. It even sucks light into it, thus the term black hole. That’s what debt is doing to the economy. It’s why the Fed keeps talking about slaying inflation but is still running historically loose monetary policy. It’s why I keep insisting the central bank isn’t likely to raise rates and will probably lower them again sooner rather than later. It’s why the bond market is tanking. It’s one of the reasons central banks are buying gold."

"So today, I want to talk a little about the debt situation, focusing primarily on the private credit market, because it is definitely a sector that could spark bigger problems."

Before delving into the private credit market, Mike highlights the July Treasury statement.

"Without tariff revenue to paper over excessive spending, the U.S. ran the biggest monthly budget deficit in five years last month. The Trump administration spent $432.31 billion more than it took in in July. It was the highest monthly budget shortfall since March 2021, amid the COVID stimulus era and the third-largest deficit on record."

Mike also notes that all of this debt comes at a price.

"Interest expense has grown into the second-largest spending category in the federal budget behind only Social Security. In July, the Treasury forked out $117.57 billion on interest payments alone. That was down slightly from a record $185 billion in June. July interest payments pushed total interest expense to $1.17 trillion through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026. That was up 15.5 percent compared to the same period in fiscal ’25."

Mike emphasizes that the national debt is just one leg of a debt trifecta.

"As of Q1, total non-financial corporate debt stood at $14.45 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. That was up nearly 5 percent from the previous year. Today, I want to focus on a small but significant portion of that corporate debt – the private credit market, because it is under growing stress, and it’s the kind of thing that could blow up and spread into the broader markets."

Mike notes that private loans make up only about 10 percent of total corporate debt. However, a meltdown in the market could spill over into the broader financial markets and the economy.

He explains the mechanics of the private credit market, emphasizing that it is an example of incentives created by government and central bank policies.

"The private credit market grew in both size and importance after the 2008 financial crisis. With banks facing stricter capital and lending regulations, private financing funds stepped in to fill the financing gap. Meanwhile, investors poured money into the private credit funds, hoping for bigger returns than they could earn by buying traditional bonds."

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Investors are incentivized to take more risk in a fiat money system with a constantly devaluing currency.

Mike notes that the dynamics in the private credit market aren't unlike the subprime mortgage market before the 2008 financial crisis, including mainstream pundits and analysts insisting that this problem isn't really a problem.

Mike highlights the numbers, explaining that private loan defaults are at five-year highs. There are also a growing number of loans on the industry's "watchlists."

"Think of this as the waiting room for defaults."

The Wall Street Journal offered a bit of optimism, pointing out that “losses could abate if interest rates decline and economic activity remains robust without pushing inflation higher.”

Mike says, "That's a lot of ifs!"

"While the CPI has cooled, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/beyond-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-july-2026-005134";>other data points point to increasing inflation. And even with the CPI moderating, it remains well above the 2 percent target. That means https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>the Fed needs to keep interest rates higher for longer. There isn’t a lot of hope for rate relief as long as the economy keeps stumbling along and CPI remains stubbornly above the mythical target."

Mike calls this "a recipe for a credit meltdown that could spread into the broader markets."

"Don’t forget that everything was fine in subprime in 2006 and 2007 – until it wasn’t. When you think back to those days, everybody was saying everything was fine, even in early 2008. Of course, it wasn’t. And things aren’t fine now. But people are good at sweeping things under the rug. When things unravel, it happens quickly, so you want to be prepared beforehand."

Mike points out that central banks seem to be preparing now.

"You know who has been taking advantage of the price dip over the last several months? Central banks. Central bank gold buying was one of the pillars supporting the gold bull market last year, and it has continued to bolster the market even as it faced significant headwinds."

Mike lists four factors that seem to be driving this central bank gold rush.

Geopolitical risk
The weaponization of the dollar.
Worries about the U.S.’s deteriorating fiscal situation.
Regime uncertainty

Mike points out that these are also four good reasons for you to pile up gold.

He wraps up the show with a call to action, urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 to talk to a Money Metals precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/18/four-reasons-central-banks-are-piling-up-gold-005146";>Four Reasons Central Banks Are Piling Up Gold

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/14/sports-betting-the-newest-gen-z-investment-strategy-in-the-war-against-inflation-005138";>Sports Betting the Newest Gen Z Investment Strategy in the War Against Inflation

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>Are We in the Early Stages of a Bond Bear Market?

Chinese Gold Demand Was Steady in July

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Despite gold's sideways price performance and increased volatility, Chinese gold demand remained generally stable in July.

China ranks as the world’s biggest gold market.

The gold price in yuan was virtually unchanged in July. According to the World Gold Council's gold return attribution model, a weaker dollar and improved investor positioning supported the yellow metal, while rising yields continued to create headwinds.

Chinese gold demand has been bifurcated, with resilient investor buying and a struggling jewelry sector.

Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell by 8 percent in July, dipping to 80 tonnes. Banks, jewelers, and refiners pull gold from the SGE, and the volume provides a snapshot of wholesale gold demand in China.

The World Gold Council described wholesale demand as “tepid,” but noted that the decline was “largely seasonal.”

“The jewelry sector is typically tepid in Q2 and early Q3.”

The WGC said data indicates that physical gold investment demand was “broadly unchanged” from June and failed to offset the decline in jewelry demand due to high prices.

Year-on-year, SGE withdrawals are down 15 percent, reflecting a softer jewelry market and a higher gold price. They are also coming off extremely high demand numbers from last year.

ETF flows indicated a modest resurgence in investment demand in July.

Five tonnes of gold flowed into Chinese gold-backed funds last month. That pushed ETF assets under management (AUM) up 3 percent to ¥250 billion ($37 billion).

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but https://youtu.be/7aP6VbgXVeM?si=evkq4O9Ibe1FDdF6"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

According to the World Gold Council, investment interest was buoyed by several factors.

“Recurring geopolitical uncertainty, weaker equities, and persistent gold accumulation by the PBoC. Meanwhile, rising institutional investor participation as the gold price stabilized also supported demand in the month.”

In another sign of bullish sentiment, net longs on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 24 tonnes to 117 tonnes at the end of July.

Meanwhile, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/25/chinese-gold-imports-surged-to-2-year-high-in-june-005094";>Chinese gold imports rose to a two-year high in June as lower prices sparked a resurgence in demand.

Looking ahead, World Gold Council analysts said investment demand will likely improve if the price continues to break higher. Wholesale demand could also get a boost from seasonal jewelry inventory replenishment.

However, there are some potential headwinds if the domestic equity rebound that started earlier in August persists.

Four Reasons Central Banks Are Piling Up Gold

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 EST

Central bank gold buying was one of the pillars supporting the gold bull market last year, and it has continued to bolster the market even as it faced significant headwinds due to expectations of a higher interest rate environment.

But why are central banks piling into gold even as they minimize their exposure to the dollar?

There are four key reasons.

Geopolitical risk
The weaponization of the dollar.
Worries about the U.S.’s deteriorating fiscal situation.
Regime uncertainty

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In an op-ed published by Reuters, financial journalist Jamie McGeever said that none of these events on their own would necessarily spark the current revival in gold.

“But throw them all together, and it’s a pretty compelling checklist. Especially for central banks, which had already started to ramp up their purchases in the second quarter after a lackluster first quarter.”

McGeever is referring to the resurgence of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/04/central-bank-gold-buying-accelerated-again-in-june-005111";>central bank gold buying in the second quarter of this year. Facing price pressure in Q1, central bank purchases slowed, but things started picking up in April. Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, nearly five times more than the Q1 total.

Following is an overview of these four factors and why they're incentivizing gold accumulation and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898";>de-dollarization.

Geopolitical Risk

The war between the U.S. and Iran has had an oversized impact on the markets. After a brief safe-haven bid at the outset of hostilities, gold sold off and has traded sideways due to the oil price shock and worry that higher inflation will mean higher interest rates.

And the war is starting to look like a problem that won’t go away. McGeever called it “an unnerving geopolitical and policy backdrop that has reminded the world of gold’s underlying appeal.”

“Hopes of a peace ‘deal ’-however unsatisfactory that deal might be - are evaporating. U.S. President Donald Trump’s off-ramp ahead of November’s midterm elections is narrowing. Escalation or capitulation is not the only choice Trump faces, but it is a black-and-white scenario some analysts are now beginning to contemplate.”

As expectations for a Fed rate hike fade, gold’s safe-haven appeal is growing in this uncertain environment.

Dollar Weaponization

When the world sees the U.S. moving aggressively on the world stage, it increases worries about https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013";>the weaponization of the dollar.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. and its Western allies aggressively sanctioned Russia, effectively cutting the Russians off from the global financial system.

Other countries sat up and took notice.

While it may make sense from a Western foreign policy perspective, it has made many countries wary and sped up efforts to minimize dependence on the greenback. After all, if you have something that can be leveraged against you, it’s only natural to try to minimize your exposure to that thing. If the U.S. can pull the dollar rug out from under you, why not try to get that rug out of the room?

This is one of the primary dynamics driving central bank gold accumulation.

Notably, they are decreasing their exposure to dollars at the same time. Earlier this year, the European Central Bank confirmed https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/ecb-confirms-gold-has-overtaken-treasuries-as-top-global-reserve-asset-004959";>gold has surpassed Treasuries as the top reserve asset.

U.S. Fiscal Malfeasance

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The national debt is only a few billion dollars away from $40 trillion. Meanwhile, federal spending keeps speeding up. The U.S. ran https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/13/trump-administration-runs-largest-monthly-budget-deficit-in-five-years-005135";>the biggest monthly budget deficit in five years last month.

The world has financed America’s spending spree for decades, but it might be getting wary of loaning Uncle Sam money. Treasury yields have been pushing higher in what some analysts believe is https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/07/18/the-ramifications-of-a-long-term-bond-bear-market-005079";>the beginning of a secular bear market in bonds.

McGeever pointed out that yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have climbed to their highest level in 18 months. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year bonds and 30-year inflation-protected bonds are at their highest since 2007 and 2008, respectively.

This indicates a sagging demand for U.S. debt.

Economist Phil Suttle explained the ramifications.

“The U.S. is now in a phase where its global seigniorage benefits of supplying the world’s reserve currency have now been exhausted; the next phase (which may already be underway) is what happens when the foreign official holders of your liabilities become more antsy about holding them.”

Regime Uncertainty

Markets are forward-looking. They don’t function very well when the future gets hazy.

For an economy to operate at peak efficiency, market participants need to be able to anticipate future developments. They need stability in policy and regulation.

We have none of that today.

The tariff situation is a prime example. Nobody knows what the tariff landscape will look like next month, much less a year from now. How does one plan for the unknown?

Meanwhile, many people on the international stage question Federal Reserve independence. They worry that pressure from the administration could drive monetary policy. It’s a legitimate concern https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/08/27/gold-and-the-myth-of-fed-independence-004297";>because Fed independence is a myth.

While new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has talked a good game on tackling inflation, he hasn’t actually done anything. This is causing the markets to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/02/yield-curve-twist-reveals-markets-losing-confidence-in-feds-commitment-to-slaying-inflation-005106";>question his commitment to reining in inflation.

McGeever noted that it also appears Trump is in Warsh’s year.

“Media reports suggest Trump has repeatedly called Warsh since his appointment, and Trump has revived his attempts to fire Governor Lisa Cook. All this has unnerved the bond market.”

All these factors are driving central bank gold buying. BNY analysts say they should also incentivize renewed investor interest, especially with the price below all-time highs.

“Gold is not a pure Fed signal, but persistent official-sector demand and renewed investor interest are reinforcing the value of inflation, currency and geopolitical hedges.”

McGeever argued that this is a setup for a long-term gold bull run.

“As confidence in the world’s reserve assets frays, gold’s allure is unlikely to dim.”