We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment.

That is from the AEA policy journal, by Santosh Anagol, Fernando Ferreira, and Jonah Rexer.

The post Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to rayward. All true. But if the City had good civil ... by Dan S.
• “mostly due to developer profits”: capitalist swine. Come ... by dearieme
• In reply to TMC. I don't think it's so zero sum – if ... by M
• “The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city ... by Sure
• I support more housing, higher density, but do it informed not ... by rayward
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• The economics of H-1B immigration
• Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
• The Apples and Oranges Tribunal

 

2. Helen Andrews on race.

3. Famous radio station goes all-automated.

4. On Stefanie Stantcheva.

5. ChinaTalk submission hiring contest.

6. New Hamilton faculty at University of Florida, 21 of them.

7. Battery in your backyard? (WSJ)

8. How Americans are talking to Claude about politics.

The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dismalist. I'd like to see the evidence for this. ... by qetzal
• There goes the last DJ Who plays what he wants to play And ... by Smug Belgian
• In reply to JFA. It's exceedingly likely that we are all the ... by dearieme
• In reply to BC. > We don’t have to abolish race as a ... by MT
• In reply to B.B.. “Nothing is so unsettling to a social ... by Dismalist
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We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek & Jens Hainmueller.

The post The economics of H-1B immigration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Hazel Meade. @Gillian, doesn't that seem kind of ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to BC. Really like this comment. Making H1-B's ... by Hazel Meade
• In reply to Alamo. The 455,866 LCA approvals in Texas since ... by Lemmy
• In reply to hash872. Look you made a mistake, possibly ... by Sure
• Has there been a government program examined by academics that ... by Mort Main
• Plus 10 more...

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• Immigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
• The Apples and Oranges Tribunal
• On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result

 

Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant.

Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT.

Enej Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy.

Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro.

Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents.

Emirhan Demir and Çınar Yıldırım, Istanbul area, 19, protection against AI agents.

Midhat Doruk, 14, Ankara, longevity, biology, and skin cosmetics.

Burak Yilmaz, 17, Diyarbarkir, Turkey, browser-native authentication.

Lloyd Strickland, London, to publish the remaining Leibniz papers, including on computation.

Abdul Quyum, 15, Perth, organizing information and data.

Catharine Young, podcast on women in science, science communication tranche, Cambridge/DC.

The post Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to mkt42. My kid, who saw it in IMAX before seeing ... by MikeP
• In reply to Action Figure. I attended a talk yesterday where ... by mkt42
• In reply to Rahul. The web is already full of AI-generated ... by Action Figure
• A couple of old guys this time. Nice to see. by Action Figure
• AI and the death of the web. I have mixed feelings about this. ... by rayward
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• Emergent Ventures India, 18th cohort
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We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota & Tammaro Terracciano.

The post How does the market regard stablecoins? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• Come on, the real crypto news of the day is the most popular ... by Bob
• Well if you can't sell your stable coin to investors, just ... by Wayfaring Stranger
• How does the market regard stablecoins? They were the only ... by MikeP
• How does the market regard stablecoins? As substitutes for ... by Dismalist
• Are tokens like stablecoins, an opaque way to impose a user ... by rayward

 

2. PC on aesthetics.

3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge.

4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church?

5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view.

6. At the demolition derby.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dennis Duffy. This individual decision is a ... by ohwilleke
• In reply to steve. Fanny Crosby wrote 8000 hymns, the ... by anonprof
• In reply to ElsieT. Many of the tunes we associate with ... by anonprof
• As a former pure mathematician who still keeps in touch with ... by Sidd
• In reply to Moral Panic. But if he'd said “hood” British ... by dearieme
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If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.

The post What should I ask Nick Bostrom? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• If the VWH is true, then accelerating the development of ... by Eli
• In reply to Mark Bahner. My kingdom for an editing button. ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Moral Panic. I'm going to take a wild guess, and ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to Anon. Yes, I remember Putin being interviewed on ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to mkt42. When Yeltsin was president, or even Putin ... by Mark Bahner
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• On infinite ethics
• Could our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?
• Odysseus notes

 

Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, the sum of infinitely many twos is twice as big as the sum of infinitely many ones). As with so many philosophical ideas, this solves some existing problems while creating some new ones (pinpointing some hyperreals requires choosing something called an “ultrafilter”, but this choice is underdetermined). Still, Elias Schmied calls this a real philosophical advance, of the sort which comes along only rarely and makes genuine headway into a previously-hopeless-seeming problem. I’m just surprised there’s a way of thinking about infinities under which they behave logically. Why didn’t we start with this one, instead of being told that infinity + infinity = infinity and we should just accept it? Claude tries to answer my questions.

That is from Scott Alexander (many more links at the link, many on AI safety).

The post On infinite ethics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Jim. Yes, maths can be abstract. But if you use a ... by JM
• In reply to Daniel Muñoz. Daniel, thanks for your answer. ... by Action Figure
• In reply to Kevin. Incidentally, in Pascal's Wager fails for ... by Guy
• In reply to Action Figure. Great question. My take is that ... by Daniel Muñoz
• We don't live in an infinite universe, if our physics theories ... by Paul Power
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• What should I ask Nick Bostrom?
• Could our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?
• Odysseus notes

 

The story I have told so far has emphasised the fit between Christianity and the Greek world of the early Roman Empire; I have given relatively little space to conflict.  That has been quite deliberate.  One of the commonest misconceptions about the early Roman Empire is that it was a time of ceaseless and inevitable suppression of virtuous Christians by a brutal governmental machine.  This is a myth that has roots in antiquity itself, and has been pumped systematically into western popular culture since the nineteenth centuury.  It is a remarkably durable myth, because it is both emotionally seductive and ideologically powerful.  The idea that virtuous Christians were engaged in endless conflict with the Roman state makes for great narrative.  But the reality is more banal: most Christians were fully integrated into Roman society, and no more or less harassed than anyone else…

My argument has been, rather, that Christianity could not have come into being in anything like the form we know it without the revolutionary impact of Augustus’ political reforms.  It was this seismic change that fundamentally transformed Mediterranean thought…The most dramatic effect of the Augustan swirl was Christianity itself: a breakaway Judaean sect led by brilliant entrepreneurs who understood the opportunities offered by the new political dispensation, and rapidly reshaped their ideas to suit new audiences.

Definitely recommended, and not only to Christians and Romans.

The post *Rome’s Age of Revolution* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Hoosier. Women played a big part in converting ... by Mort Main
• You might try reading “The Rise of Christianity: How the ... by Mort Main
• In reply to ElsieT. Actually, it was Peter who had the dream ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Hoosier. I think the motivation is unimportant? ... by MR
• In reply to Kaleberg. The Coliseum wasn't finished before ... by Sure
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• What should I ask Jared Diamond?
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2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ).

3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization.

4. Gita Gopinath is making sense.

5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means.

6. David Perell art history game.

7. New model of “Racing to Ruin.”

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Rock Lobster. I didn't read it because I don't ... by Abelard Lindsey
• In reply to Rock Lobster. Correct. Three businesses in the ... by Robert
• In reply to mkt42. Looking at the _Modern Art_ page on ... by mkt42
• In reply to KL. That sounds like a much better way to invert ... by mkt42
• In reply to Quantitative Sneezing. I'll take a look at ... by mkt42
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The post On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Lord Action. There was a movie by Mike Judge that ... by Anonymous
• In reply to Jonathan S. When I ask ChatGPT, it tells me that ... by Anonymous
• In reply to Slocum. Yeah, for once I've with Anti-Gnostic, I ... by d
• In reply to Slocum. That's a false binary. If fewer people ... by Anti-Gnostic
• In reply to Slocum. That's not a “downside.” There is no ... by Anti-Gnostic
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• Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform
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• Taiwan fact of the day

 

The post Taiwan fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to M. “Yep, that's fine; I hear you and I'm not ... by Lord Action
• In reply to M. Yep, that's fine; I hear you and I'm not going ... by M
• In reply to M. “Indeed, this is a running theme and ... by Lord Action
• In reply to M. Though I'd also note that, for our discussion, ... by M
• In reply to M. “You appear to be a lot more impressed by ... by M
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• Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day
• The economics of H-1B immigration
• On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result

 

Mexico has quietly become a cornerstone of the AI boom, providing 40 per cent of US imports this year of the computer servers that are widely used in the data centres powering artificial intelligence.

Taiwanese manufacturers are rapidly expanding factories in Mexico to assemble servers, which are now the country’s top US export, overtaking autos that dominated its trade for decades.

Mexico is the second-largest provider of enterprise servers to the US so far this year, with sales reaching $46.9bn, behind Taiwan, which sold $53.5bn, though Mexico became the largest on a monthly basis in May.

The phenomenon is helping prop up Mexico’s limp economy, pushing the country’s exports to record levels. Servers and related hardware made up almost one-fifth of the $317bn of goods Mexico exported between January and May, more than double the same period a year earlier. Taiwan, in turn, is now Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, up from eighth place in 2022. Taiwanese companies have spent more than $1.6bn since 2020 on Mexican factories that offer geographic proximity and tariff-free access to US tech giants spending hundreds of billions on data centres.

“Mexico is of tremendous importance to the way this new AI-powered economy is working,” said Jesse Rogers, head of Latin America economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It is really a new frontier of collaboration and even dependency on the Mexican economy when it comes to AI servers.”

Here is more from Christine Murray and Alan Smith at the FT.

The post Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

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• In reply to Tom Meadowcroft. I think actually building in the ... by TektonicShift
• In reply to rayward. “the St. Petersburg Times (n/k/a the ... by mkt42
• One of the many things that the Trump administration doesn’t ... by Tom Meadowcroft
• This should be no surprise to anyone. Mexico has been ... by PaulD
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I also was struck by the high proportion of Chinese visitors at this show, even though they are not especially numerous in Florence right now.

The main Rothko show, at Palazzo Strozzi, had an opening room showing Rothkos tied to Renaissance (!) art, mostly with works from early Rothko.  The rest of the exhibit had perfect lighting and was the best Rothko display I have seen.

Ken Griffin has very good taste in Rothko.  One of his works is here.

Visiting Florence in August is less unbearable than I was expecting.  So many other places have become crowded that the situation here does not phase me.  Plus the heat is keeping many away?  At dinnertime, there is no crush to get into the restaurants.

Moving on shortly, just here for one day!

The post Rothko show in Florence appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• The main Rothko show, at Palazzo Strozzi was at Fondation Louis ... by LBC
• In reply to Paul Selesko. Appreciate the reply, and I am glad ... by Frank
• In reply to Paul Selesko. …to name a few Americans…I ... by Paul Selesko
• In reply to Frank. Frank, in principal I agree with you. ... by Paul Selesko
• Seeing Rothko's vacuous soul-sucking works next to great ... by Dan Elton
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• The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz
• My excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-Dixon
• Markets in everything?

 

2. Ugly architecture creates coalitions against development.

3. London is (modestly) degentrifying.

4. Is the “no forward guidance” approach failing? (FT)

5. Chinese interview with Christopher Nolan.

6. “social media use and school grades are unrelated for adolescents…meta-analytic evidence is not in support of dramatic claims relating social media use to mischief.” Link here.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Tom T.. The problem has always been that the ... by Logan
• 1. consultants hired by the UK civil service tend to do the ... by D
• In reply to Peter. Please ignore the headline. The real data ... by Peter
• In reply to M. I put the real data in a post further down ... by Peter
• “The latest figures show the capital has recorded its first ... by Peter
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