Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Kai Hoffmann: Gold’s Bull Market Remains Intact

Sat, 30 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

In a recent episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey sat down with Kai Hoffmann, https://www.soarfinancial.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">founder and managing director of SOAR Financial, to discuss the recent turbulence in gold and silver markets, inflation concerns, central bank policy, and the outlook for mining stocks. Hoffmann, who has more than 15 years of experience in capital markets and the mining sector, acknowledged that recent price action in precious metals has puzzled even seasoned market observers.

According to Hoffmann, gold's movements have become increasingly difficult to interpret. While geopolitical tensions and developments in the Middle East have clearly influenced market sentiment, he believes recent price swings have been driven more by headlines than by any fundamental change in the long-term investment case for gold. He noted that gold has reacted inconsistently to both peace talks and escalating tensions, making it difficult to draw straightforward conclusions from daily market moves.

Despite short-term volatility, Hoffmann emphasized that the core investment thesis for gold remains unchanged. He pointed to examples such as Turkey selling gold reserves to help stabilize its currency as evidence that gold continues to serve as both a safe-haven asset and a source of liquidity during periods of financial stress. He also highlighted ongoing purchases by central banks and major buyers such as Tether, suggesting institutional demand remains strong even as retail investors are shaken out of the market.

(Interview Starts Round 6:28 Mark)

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America's Debt Problem Is Being Ignored

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One of the central themes of the discussion was the growing disconnect between market attention and America's fiscal realities. Hoffmann argued that concerns over the U.S. national debt have largely disappeared from public debate despite the debt approaching $40 trillion. He estimated the total federal debt at roughly $39.3 trillion and rising rapidly.

While https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/10/inflation-is-americans-biggest-financial-worry-and-its-not-even-close-004905";>inflation and interest rates dominate financial headlines, Hoffmann believes the debt issue has simply been pushed aside. Efforts to control spending have largely failed, and he suggested that further monetary expansion remains likely. In his view, investors are overlooking not only rising government debt but also the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet through ongoing quantitative easing measures.

The combination of expanding debt and monetary creation continues to support the long-term case for gold ownership. Yet Hoffmann noted that, unlike previous years, when debt ceiling debates regularly captured headlines, fiscal concerns have become secondary to geopolitical developments and military conflicts.

Why the Federal Reserve Faces an Impossible Balancing Act

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The conversation also explored the difficult position facing central bankers. Hoffmann acknowledged that Federal Reserve officials often receive heavy criticism but argued that the reality of policymaking is more complicated than many investors appreciate.

He pointed out that many of the indicators the Fed relies upon—https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/12/no-matter-how-you-slice-the-data-it-come-up-inflation-004912";>including inflation reports and employment data—are lagging indicators rather than leading indicators. This means policymakers are often reacting to economic developments after they have already begun rather than anticipating them in advance. Hoffmann specifically mentioned Kevin Warsh and expressed interest in whether future Fed leadership might adopt a more proactive approach.

Although inflation remains elevated, Hoffmann noted that current conditions are nowhere near the extremes experienced during the pandemic era. He referenced producer price inflation running near 6% annually while emphasizing that official inflation remains well below the approximately 9% levels seen during the COVID period. He also suggested that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices decline, inflation pressures could quickly moderate, potentially reviving the much-criticized concept of "transitory" inflation.

Contrary to many critics, Hoffmann believes the Federal Reserve has performed reasonably well over the past two to three years, given the information and tools available to policymakers. While not perfect, he argued that officials have largely succeeded in navigating an exceptionally uncertain environment.

Europe Is Not Facing an Energy Crisis—At Least Not Yet

With energy prices once again becoming a focus for investors, Maharrey asked Hoffmann about conditions in Europe. Hoffmann dismissed concerns about imminent jet fuel shortages, citing comments from Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, whose airline transports approximately 220 million passengers annually and ranks among the world's largest carriers.

According to Hoffmann, major industry participants such as airlines and energy companies continue to report adequate fuel supplies. While headlines have raised concerns about shortages, he believes much of the discussion amounts to fear-driven speculation rather than evidence of an actual supply crisis.

Nevertheless, Hoffmann acknowledged that Europe remains structurally vulnerable due to its energy policies. He argued that the continent became overly dependent on Russian energy supplies and subsequently weakened its energy security through policy decisions that reduced domestic nuclear power capacity. While these long-term issues remain unresolved, he does not currently see evidence of an immediate fuel shortage.

Different Reasons, Same Love of Gold

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The discussion turned to cultural attitudes toward precious metals, with Hoffmann highlighting notable differences between European and American investors.

In Germany, he explained, gold ownership is deeply influenced by historical memory. The hyperinflation of the 1920s remains embedded in the national consciousness, creating a strong preference for gold as a store of wealth and protection against currency debasement. Germans, he said, remember the stories of wheelbarrows full of nearly worthless currency and continue to view gold as a safeguard against similar outcomes.

American investors, by contrast, often approach gold from a more libertarian perspective. Hoffmann suggested that many U.S. buyers value gold because it offers https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/26/sound-money-the-enemy-of-big-government-and-a-friend-to-liberty-004939";>independence from financial institutions and government control. The appeal lies not only in wealth preservation but also in the absence of counterparty risk and the ability to hold an asset outside the traditional financial system.

Although the motivations differ, Hoffmann believes investors on both sides of the Atlantic ultimately arrive at the same conclusion: gold provides security during uncertain times.

Mining Stocks Remain Strong Despite Gold's Pullback

Drawing on his frequent attendance at mining conferences around the world, Hoffmann offered a bullish assessment of the mining sector.

He recently attended the Canaccord Conference and observed that while sentiment remains highly positive, the industry has not yet entered a phase of speculative euphoria. Capital continues flowing into junior mining companies, financing activity remains healthy, and investors are still willing to fund promising projects. However, he noted the absence of excessive optimism often associated with market tops.

One of the most interesting developments, according to Hoffmann, is that many mining stocks have recently refused to follow gold lower. While miners often lead recoveries in the precious metals market, they have not fully participated in recent downside moves. He views this divergence as a potentially constructive signal for the sector.

The economics of gold mining also remain exceptionally strong. Hoffmann estimated that first-quarter https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>average gold prices were around $4,800 per ounce and expects second-quarter averages to remain near $4,500 per ounce. With many producers operating at all-in sustaining costs between roughly $1,800 and $2,000 per ounce, profit margins remain substantial even after recent price declines.

He suggested that margins of approximately $2,500 per ounce remain extraordinarily healthy and argued that investors may be overreacting to modest margin compression from record levels. Even if gold were to fall to $4,000 per ounce, he believes most producers would continue generating robust profits.

The Most Misunderstood Sector in Investing

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Perhaps Hoffmann's strongest argument centered on what he sees as a widespread misunderstanding of the gold mining industry among mainstream investors.

He cited a recent CNBC interview in which a fund manager claimed not to invest in non-cash-flowing companies when discussing Agnico Eagle, one of the world's largest gold producers. Hoffmann expressed astonishment at the comment, noting that Agnico Eagle generates billions of dollars in free cash flow annually.

According to Hoffmann, many investors still fail to appreciate how financially healthy the mining sector has become. Major producers such as Barrick and Newmont are now sitting on net cash positions, paying higher dividends, repurchasing shares, and generating significant free cash flow. These are exactly the characteristics that traditionally attract institutional investors.

He believes pension funds and generalist investors are beginning to rediscover the sector, but widespread participation has not yet arrived. For that reason, Hoffmann sees the current environment as an opportunity for investors to gain exposure before a larger wave of capital enters the market.

Gold's Enduring Value

As the interview concluded, Hoffmann returned to a theme that ran throughout the conversation: gold's ability to prove its value repeatedly across different economic and geopolitical environments.

Whether discussing Turkey's use of gold reserves to support its currency, Russia's financial resilience, or the continued accumulation of bullion by central banks, Hoffmann argued that gold remains uniquely positioned as a trusted store of value. While market narratives may shift from inflation to war to interest rates, the underlying role of gold remains remarkably consistent.

For Hoffmann, the precious metals bull market is not being driven by short-term headlines alone. Rather, it is being supported by long-term structural forces, including rising government debt, ongoing monetary expansion, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and growing recognition of gold's role as a financial anchor in an increasingly unstable world.

Alaska Ends All Taxes on Gold and Silver, Reaffirms Their Monetary Status

Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

(Juneau, Alaska – May 29, 2026) –Today, Alaska enacted a bill that removes local sales taxes from purchases of gold and silver and reaffirms that the metals are constitutional money recognized by the state.

Representative Kevin McCabe (R – Big Lake) and Senator Mike Cronk (R – Tok/Northway) sponsored Alaska https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Alaska-2025-HB1-Introduced.pdf"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">House Bill 1 and https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Alaska-2025-SB162-Introduced.pdf"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Senate Bill 162 and secured broad support from both in-state activists and national groups such as https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sound Money Defense League and Money Metals Exchange.

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Forty-five states have already fully or partially eliminated the state sales tax on the purchase of precious metals, including Alaska. However, local government bodies in Alaska could (and did) still impose sales tax on precious metals purchases if they choose. This bill prohibits local taxes on the precious metals content of gold and silver.

This measure also reaffirms Alaska’s recognition of gold and silver as money as outlined in Article I, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution, which says “No state shall… make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

HB 1 and SB 162 also call for a Legislative Budget and Audit Committee study on the possibility of accepting forms of specie (i.e. gold or silver) for the payment of debts, including public charges, taxes, and other money owed to the state.

Upon enactment of the bill, Rep. McCabe said, “HB 1 is about restoring sound money principles, protecting individual financial freedom, and reaffirming the constitutional role of gold and silver as money. This bill gives Alaskans additional economic choice while ensuring that money itself is not unfairly taxed as a commodity.”

He continued, “I especially appreciate Sound Money Defense League for standing with us from day one, helping build state and national support for the bill, providing expert testimony, and working alongside Alaskans throughout the process to help get this legislation across the finish line.”

The Sound Money Defense League worked to secure the introduction of the tax repeal measures, testified in support of the measures at hearings and helped generate overwhelming grassroots support in favor of the bills.

Executive director of the Sound Money Defense League, https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/news/2024/10/28/dr-ron-paul-interviews-sound-money-defense-leagues-executive-director-on-sound-money-and-longtime-advocacy-000569"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jp Cortez, traveled to Juneau several times to testify at multiple committee hearings on this measure. He said, “Alaska’s action today is yet another major victory for the national https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/sound-money-explained"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">sound money movement. Alaska has a rich gold-related history and I’m proud to have worked with lawmakers to pass pro-sound money legislation in the Frontier State.”

Only 5 states (Maine, Washington, New Mexico, Vermont, and Hawaii) and the District of Columbia still unjustly tax citizens acquiring gold and silver in an attempt to protect their savings against the serial devaluation of the Federal Reserve Note.

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Eliminating sales taxes on the monetary metals is good public policy for many reasons:

Levying sales taxes on precious metals is inappropriate. Sales taxes are typically levied on final consumer goods. Computers, shirts, and shoes carry sales taxes because the consumer is "consuming" the good. Precious metals are inherently held for resale, not "consumption," making the application of sales taxes on precious metals inappropriate.

Studies have shown that taxing precious metals is an inefficient form of revenue collection. The results of one study involving Michigan show that any sales tax proceeds a state collects on precious metals are likely surpassed by the state revenue lost from conventions, businesses, and economic activity that are driven out of the state.

Taxing gold and silver harms in-state businesses. It’s a competitive marketplace, so buyers will take their business to neighboring states, thereby undermining in-state jobs. Investors can easily avoid paying $300 in sales taxes, for example, on a $5000 purchase of a one-ounce gold bar.

Taxing precious metals is unfair to certain savers and investors. Gold and silver are held as forms of savings and investment. Alaska already does not tax the purchase of stocks, bonds, ETFs, currencies, and other financial instruments.

Taxing precious metals is harmful to citizens attempting to protect their assets. Purchasers of precious metals aren't fat-cat investors. Most who buy precious metals do so in small increments as a way of saving money. Precious metals investors are purchasing precious metals as a way to preserve their wealth against the damages of inflation. Inflation harms the poorest among us, including pensioners, Alaskans on fixed incomes, wage earners, savers, and more.

Alaska is currently tied for 4th place on the latest edition of the Sound Money Index, which ranks all 50 states based on their sound money policies. Alaska's score is expected to rise after the passage of HB 1/SB 162.

In the 2026 legislative season, the Sound Money Defense League has worked successfully in support of sound money in Alaska, https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/news/2026/05/26/maryland-reverses-course-restores-sales-tax-exemption-on-gold-and-silver-000673"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Maryland, Idaho, Wisconsin, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/27/georgia-rejects-big-government-transactional-gold-bill-joining-more-than-a-dozen-other-states-004793?srsltid=AfmBOorGxpdXu3xp66IU5qFU_Z0XEgsFFmsjzLumG4vvEqwyy5l3G9aW"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Georgia, Kansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Colorado, Nebraska, West Virginia, and South Dakota.

Img credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Alaska_%28Benny_Benson%27s_Original_Design%29.png"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">DrRandomFactor/Wikimedia Commons

CIA Clandestine Gold Bar Scheme | Also, a Kai Hoffmann Exclusive Interview

Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we'll a fascinating interview with Kai Hoffmann, CEO of Soar Financial and host of the well-known and highly regarded Soar Financially podcast.

Mike Maharrey dives into a range of topics with Mr. Hoffmann as they discuss what’s really happening in the precious metals market given the ongoing headwinds of the Iran war and whether the inflation we’re seeing right now is simply a matter of the oil shock, or if there are deeper issues that will be more long-lasting if and when we finally do get a peace deal in Iran.

Kai, based in Germany, gives us a European perspective on gold ownership and some of the differences and similarities between bullion investors in the U.S. compared to those in Europe.

So, stick around for another tremendously insightful conversation with a man who has a wonderful pulse on precious metals, the economy and the markets as a whole, Kai Hoffmann, coming up after this week's market update. And as a reminder please download, like, rate and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

Well, it looks like we can add CIA clandestine operations to the list of uses for gold in this day and age.

A former senior CIA official was just implicated in a scheme to apparently steal about $40 million in so-called "black budget" gold bars -- bars that he obtained from his U.S. government employer for unspecified “work-related expenses.”

The ex-CIA official, David Rush, was arrested on May 19, a day after the FBI raided his home and found the allegedly misappropriated gold.

According to charging papers, the FBI initially investigated Rush for lying on his resume. For instance, Rush allegedly claimed in an application to enter the “senior executive service” ranks that he was the “director of test” for a joint Army/Navy weapons test organization. However, his military records showed that he separated from the Navy in 2015.

As its investigation progressed, the FBI allegedly found that Rush made several requests to the government to obtain a “significant quantity” of foreign currency, as well as tens of millions of dollars in gold bars, for “work-related expenses” from last November to this March.

The charging papers don’t explain what those work-related expenses entail, nor do they identify Rush as having worked for the CIA. It was the https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/27/us/politics/fbi-arrest-cia-official-gold-bars.html?smid=url-share&;amp;tblci=GiCB9a4pBBlehdsJSAXBSvtzY7kC2AKY69BgUiVdqNpQmSDKuWUo-sCAu_nVmNN8MK67Pg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New York Times that reported Rush’s CIA background. Presumably, the gold was intended for one or more covert operations.

The charging papers do say that the gold went missing from the government storage space where it was supposed to have been held. Agents allegedly found it at Rush’s home when executing a search warrant on May 18.

During the search, FBI agents seized approximately 303 gold bars, each of which weighs approximately one kilogram, court records say. Based on the current price of gold, the estimated value of that https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold exceeds $40 million.

The report also states that agents seized about $2 million in U.S. currency, as well as 35 luxury watches.

Turning to the metals markets, gold and silver prices staged a modest recovery in recent days following a sharp pullback. Precious metals initially came under pressure after reports emerged that the United States and Iran supposedly reached a tentative agreement to extend a ceasefire and ease shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, prices rebounded as market participants focused on the inflationary consequences of the recent Middle East conflict. U.S. inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in three years during April, largely due to higher energy costs linked to the Iran war.

The stronger inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer and raised concerns that additional rate increases could still be possible if inflation fails to moderate.

From a technical perspective, gold found strong support near the $4,365 level before recovering sharply and forming a bullish daily candlestick pattern. The broader $4,300-$4,400 area continues to serve as a key support zone. While gold remains below its 20-day and 40-day exponential moving averages, short-term momentum has improved, suggesting the metal may continue to stabilize and trade within a broad range unless support levels are decisively broken.

Silver experienced a similar pattern, declining toward support near $71 before rebounding strongly. The white metal has now retraced approximately 61.8% of its rally from $61 to $98, placing it within a significant technical support zone.

Although silver remains below key daily moving averages, improving hourly momentum indicators suggest downside risks may be limited in the near term. As long as support in the $70-$71 range holds, silver can be expected to consolidate with a mildly positive bias.

Checking in on the specifics here before we get to the interview, gold currently comes in at $4,577 an ounce, off a very slight 0.2% on the week. Silver has bounced off the lows seen earlier in the week, as previously stated, but still comes in with a 3.1% decline, checking in at $76.39 as of this Friday late morning recording.

Finally, platinum is down 2.3% to trade at $1,936 an ounce and palladium is off 2.5% to come in at $1,378.

Well now, without further delay let’s get right to our exclusive interview with a metals, mining, and resource sector expert.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by Kai Hoffmann. Kai is the managing director and founder of SOAR Financial, and he has over 15 years of experience as a consultant in the capital markets with a particular focus on the mining industry and follows the bullion markets very closely. How you doing, Kai?

Kai Hoffmann: Doing great. Thanks for having me back on, Mike.

Mike Maharrey: All right! Third time was the charm for the intro, so that's good. We're off and rolling now. So I appreciate you taking a little time to be on the show. And I guess to start, I'd just like to get your general sense of how you perceive what's going on in the bullying market right now. A lot of selling pressure. It seems like it'll rally a little bit and then it gets pressed down again and the war is obviously the driving force. So how are you navigating this right now and how are you seeing the market? Is the war just kind of a blip on the radar or is it changing the fundamentals? How is this playing out in your mind?

Kai Hoffmann: It's a good question because it is not easy to understand what is happening in the gold and silver space right now. Is it headline driven? Is it fundamentally driven? And that's the big question. I'm leaning towards more headline driven right now just because gold reacts to anything that has to do with oil, meaning inflation. The Fed, we've just seen a new Fed share being announced and put in place here just last week. So we'll have to see what the ... I didn't listen to the Fed speak yesterday. I think there were like four Fed presidents or so chatting and giving talks yesterday. I haven't seen the summaries of those yet. It's been a busy morning. But based on what I'm seeing in the reaction to the gold price, it couldn't have been too positive. So, maybe they're even talking or hinting towards at least keeping the rates the same or maybe even hinting at a hike.

And that's what is putting pressure on gold. A bit unexplained or for no reason in my opinion, because we've moved up in the gold price when the rates went higher as well. And that was starting in 2022, gold started moving really with Russia being kicked out of the SWIFT system. So, that decoupling, that argument, I have a hard time with it. We're of course grasping all at straws and I meet myself included, trying to make sense of what is happening. Because yesterday when we saw, okay, we're going to have peace in the Middle East perhaps, and we're very close and MOUs have been signed and what have you, gold went down. When there was peace talk, gold went up the last few days or the last few times. So it's not as straightforward as one might think. So I don't really have a clear answer for you, Mike.

What is really happening? I'm a little flabbergasted and puzzled by the price action as well. But what we can say is the thesis remains intact. Gold is still the number one safe haven investment and it's proven that to be that as well. And it's proven that it is the last resource of liquidity as well. So Turkey needed to stabilize its currency. What did they sell? They sold their gold. So the thesis is absolutely intact. What we're seeing is probably a lot of tourists being shaken out hoping for a quick rebound. They're selling now. Central banks are still there. Tether is still there, meaning a big buyer. So nothing has really changed. Maybe some of the tourists have been shaken off, which is good, meaning it allows us to buy lower.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. I think you summed that up perfectly. That's kind of the way that I'm viewing things as well. And I think a lot of people out there are as well. It's like nobody knows. And I guess regime uncertainty, that's going to be, I think, the prevailing theme of the Trump years when we look back. It's like who knows what's going to happen tomorrow. I'm curious, as you mentioned, the inflation narrative seems to be the driving force right now. Oil prices are rising, therefore inflation's going to go up, therefore central banks are going to hold rates higher for longer. I feel like that folks are underestimating or understating the debt problem. Do you see that as well?

Kai Hoffmann: Oh, absolutely. It's been completely pushed under the rug or shoved under the rug. We're about to close in on $40 trillion in national debt, meaning US national debt, of course. We're at 39.3 or so, but we're adding quickly to it. And that topic's being completely ignored. Of course, even on our channel, we've discussed that the topic was a hot topic over the last three years, but apparently not so much anymore. It was at the beginning of the Trunk term. We tried to maybe control the debt a little bit with a Dosh initiative that went nowhere. So now we don't care anymore really because we're trying to fight wars, we're trying to win wars. I'm still waiting for a bit of helicopter money, perhaps like tariff checks, he called them ahead of the election. So I'm sure we'll see even more money printing because we're already seeing QE as well.

So, it's not just the US debt that is increasing, it's the Fed balance sheet that is increasing as well. So, it's a number of factors that are, again, supporting the cause for gold here, but the topic itself, I haven't seen it really being discussed. I'm curious, and that's something I need to research actually, really good point, Mike, is when are we going to have the next ceiling? When are we going to hit the next debt ceiling? When is the next hot debate? When do we have to give something up? Because those discussions really, I wouldn't say frustrate me, but because I'm an outsider, I'm German obviously. So, I'm watching how the bargaining happens there in Washington is quite amusing actually, and it's a bit pathetic.

Mike Maharrey: Yes, those words are very apt for what we're seeing, no doubt about that at all. And I'm going to ask you to try to climb into the head of a central banker here and maybe, I hope it doesn't make you feel clammy or too dirty or anything, but how do you, if you're in the ... Obviously they have their Fed speak and they say the things that they say and most things that they say are calculated. But if you're a central banker and you're sitting in the privacy of your lounge maybe with a little glass of bourbon and a cigar and you're talking to your buddies, how do you navigate a situation where on the one hand you've got increasing inflationary pressures and as you mentioned, it's not just the prices, it's the fact that the Fed is literally creating money right now through QE.

How do you reconcile that with the fact that we've got these huge positive debts and that doesn't play well in a higher interest rate environment. I mean, what do you think? Are they sweating or are they just drinking a whole lot of that bourbon so they can forget about it? I mean, how do you do this as a central banker?

Kai Hoffmann: No, it must be pretty good bourbon as well at that, right? But as a central banker, it's not an easy job. Again, I don't want to claim that I'm smarter than any of the Fed central bankers here, any of the Fed presidents, but by no means. Of course, they receive a lot of criticisms, always easy to criticize, but it is difficult. If you look at the inflation data, is it really just oil? Is it driving the inflation? No, of course not. There's money printing, as you pointed out, happening as well, but it's tough to quantify. How will that show up? There's obviously going to be a lag effect and the Fed is always reactionary. Of course, I'm kind of curious what Kevin Warsch will do here in his term in terms of data interpretation, maybe perhaps being more proactive instead of just reactive, because a lot of the indicators the Fed relies on are all lagging indicators.

They're not leading indicators, they're lagging indicators like the jobless report, inflation. Those are all lagging indicators, not leading. So it's kind of difficult to forecast and they don't want to forecast as well because everybody could have seen or forecast that the oil price is going to go higher and that the gas price at the pump is going to go higher. But of course there's like, "Ah, we'll wait. We'll sit this out. " And unless the employment market, which we can debate this all day long, like how strong it is, right? We're always seeing layoffs here and there, but I think some things are exaggerated on both sides. It seems to be stable right now. That doesn't mean it's great. It doesn't mean it's honky dory, but as long as the employment numbers don't change, I don't think the Fed is under a lot of pressure right now.

Yes, inflation is increasing, but it's in no means like a COVID levels. We're not an official 9%. We're at maybe three PPIs at 6% for the year, okay, but that could bring the return of the word transitory as well because if there is peace tomorrow, let's assume that. Maybe they sign the MOU and say, "Okay, in 60 days, we're going to have a peace deal." And oil, you've already seen it react, go down to, what is it, 87, $88 a barrel I think I've seen yesterday. Well, what does that do to inflation? Well, of course there's the lag effect. Well, we also have to figure out, okay, what happens? There has been a four-week period when no ships or in which no ships have arrived anywhere with oil and products that could be used for refining phosphates and everything. So there's a bit of a lag effect when it comes to perhaps the inflation number.

But if there's peace tomorrow in six weeks, you should see prices decline at the pumps again. We'll see that reaction. So that term transitory is just going to be popular again as much as it is hated, but we have to get used to that. And I think that's why the Fed, while people are saying, "Oh, they're not doing anything." It's like, I don't think they're too wrong. And that's a very controversial point of view. I think they're actually, and I'm more in the camp that actually have done a decent job over the last two, three years based on how they're operating. I think they've done okay. Not great, not bad in my opinion, because they steered it okay. So I don't want to be a central banker, let me say that.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, same.

Kai Hoffmann: I think they've done okay based on the information and the tools they've been given.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I'm inclined to agree with you, particularly right now. I mean, I'm not sure that there is a move to make because you're making a move into so much uncertainty. And as you say, we could wake up tomorrow and the war's over and by the same token, we could wake up tomorrow and there's US troops on the ground. I mean, it's so difficult to navigate that. I'm curious, you're in Germany, you get a good European perspective. I'm curious, here in the United States, we've definitely seen the impact of higher gas prices, but there hasn't really been any talk of shortages or anything like that. I know in Europe there was some talk of maybe some jet fuel problems. Are you hearing talk of actual shortages in terms of oil or energy?

Kai Hoffmann: No, not at all. Yes, there have been some news about that topic, but I listened to Michael O'Leary, or Michael Leary, he's the Ryanair CEO. I think the second largest airline in the world based on passenger numbers, sorry, sixth largest airline. I think there are passenger numbers, about 220 million passengers a year. If he does talk about a jet fuel shortage and he said, "I don't see a jet fuel shortage," then there is no jet fuel shortage. I'm sorry. The guy operates on very, very thin margins and if he sees a shortage or rising prices, then he has a problem. He doesn't see a problem. Of course, he's got shareholders as well that he needs to keep calm, but if he says there's no shortage and tomorrow there's a shortage, he's going to get sued. He's going to be liable. So I'm going to put a little weight on what he's been saying.

Also, I think it was Shell or BPI, and I'm confusing the two right now that said we are fine. We have enough supply. There is enough. So I'm not worried about that part. I think a lot of it is fear mongering, of course. In Europe, especially because we are short energy in general, it's not just jet fuel. We're generally short energy. We screwed ourselves, pardon the French here, but by being too close to Russia and just only having a single source for our energy, which at the time was absolutely fine. It worked. We had decently priced energy, but that blew up in our face, as we all know, and we don't need to go into that as well. And then talking about blowing up, we also blew up our nukes in Germany. So another very frustrating conversation and topic. But coming back to the jet fuel, no problem.

I think we're all fine here for now if nothing else changes.

Mike Maharrey: Right, right. While we're on the subject of European attitudes, I'm curious, you've spent time in Canada, you spend time in the US and obviously a lot of time in Europe. And I'm curious as to, is there a difference between investor attitude towards gold and silver in Europe as opposed to what you've seen in the United States? And I guess maybe that even breaks down more granularly to different countries in Europe. Maybe it's not fair to lump all of Europe into on suitcase, but I'm curious if there is kind of a difference between those two markets.

Kai Hoffmann: Yes and no. So, we all love gold. Germany loves gold, the US loves gold, but for very different reasons, I think, because Germany, we had hyperinflation back in the 20s. So our reason is that we lost a lot of wealth back in the day and we've seen it. We've had to take the wheelbarrow to the bakery full of money and the most valuable thing was actually the wheelbarrow, not the money in it. So we've seen that. So it's imprinted in our DNA. That's why we love gold. Germans love bullion. They love mining stocks as well because we're degenerate gamblers apparently as well. But out of the US, it's more out of libertarian reasons, meaning I want to be free. I don't want to be told what to do. There's no counterparty risk and I got my gold in my safe or in my backyard. You can't touch me.

So, a bit of a different attitude, but very similar. So, gold fulfills two different roles here. For us, it's more protection against inflation and just wealth protection. Of course, to a degree in the US as well. I'm generalizing a bit, but overall, I think it's more about liberty and to being independent and have nobody else tell you what to do there.

Mike Maharrey: That's definitely the American mindset. I'm sitting here thinking, yeah, absolutely. So, you spend a lot of time at mining conferences and stuff, and you even have your own in Germany. What's kind of the mood in the mining sector over the past year and has it changed and how has the war impacted it?

Kai Hoffmann: It's obviously changed and that for the better, obviously. But the good thing is, and I was just at a conference last week, so it's really topical. It's not euphoric. Maybe not anymore, but we're still seeing a lot of money being pumped into the junior mining space. There is a lot of money available, but as I said, at the conference, there was no exuberance. We haven't seen that in Beaver Creek in September, which was sort of the starting point, I'd say, of the real rally here in the share prices. But here even at the Canaccord Conference last week, there was no exuberance, meaning there was no champagne bottles being popped out of the ordinary. There's not a lot of backslapping of course that goes on at these events, but it wasn't out of the ordinary, I would say. Of course, people were excited. We're still at $4,500, or today we're about $4,400, but potatoes, potatoes here, but still companies are making money.

They're being financed. I think sentiment from the investor side is still somewhat positive. Of course, it's been clouded. I'd say the sentiment, because we have also seen financings decrease starting in mid-March. The investor sentiment just or a risk capital. I wouldn't say disappear, maybe too strong of a word, but risk capital is more subdued perhaps and has taken a step back, just waiting for the outcome, but we're now seeing, again, financings, bought deals happening. So, sentiment is really, really positive still. It's just not really shown in share prices, though I have to admit, looking at my portfolio over the last 48 hours, it seems like many of the stocks that are not following gold all the way down at this point, which is good. And I'm trying to figure out what that means because stocks often front run the bullion when it comes to recovery as well or can front run.

And it's been interesting to see because even in the run up, the stocks haven't participated all the way up and it doesn't look like they want to participate on the way down either right now, which has me positive

Mike Maharrey: Interesting dynamic going on there. At what point does ... We've seen a lot of price pressure as you mentioned, but we're still sitting far above where we were a couple of years ago for sure. But at what point does the sagging price begin to actually impact the bottom line for the miners? Is there kind of a point that you're looking at that's an inflection point for that?

Kai Hoffmann: Well, it's a really good question. I had a very long discussion with Lobo Tiggre, and I wouldn’t say heated discussion, but an interesting discussion with about that. We've seen an absolute margin explosion from where last quarter we were about almost $3,000 an ounce margin, which is absolutely phenomenal, of course, but it's also grown too fast in my opinion. So, the question is where's the new normal, if that makes sense. 3,000 seems a bit rich, quite honestly, because it has happened so fast. So, of course we're going to see margin compression happen. It is pretty a fair assumption that we could speculate that Q2 average gold price is going to be lower than in Q1. Q1 was about $4,800. My guess right now, without having done the math, we're probably closer to 45 this quarter, maybe even just below that. So it's still very healthy. Companies are producing between 1,800 and $2,000.

So, we're sitting on still at $2,500 in margin, Mike. So very healthy. The question is like, okay, when does sentiment change? Ooh, margins are compressing. I don't see massive impact from the oil price. I was just at the conference we just talked about. I talked about how is that impacting your operations? I spoke with producers and they said, "Well, maybe 10% extra oil and fuel costs." We have a lot of underground perhaps, so we don't need a lot. Some of them have hedged actually their oil for the year, so they only have to figure it out next year again because they often hedge their oil for the year ahead so they can do their calculations, which seemed to be the smart thing to do because they might have dodged a bullet here at least intermittently or transitorially, coming back to that word, but if that's even a word.

But the point is though, I don't have an exact answer, of course, whether it's $1800 in margin, whether it's $2,500 in the margin, that the question I need to ask and we all in as investors need to ask, how happy are we with $2,000 margin? Personally, I'm very happy with $2,000 margin. The companies are very happy with $2,000 margin. Even if gold goes to $4,000, it's very, very healthy. So I'm not too concerned. It's probably more the algos that are trading stocks lower because when they see the price releases, oh margins having decreased, it's like, well, look at the level we're coming from. Maybe that's even a buying opportunity when the Q2 numbers come out. And I'm fantasizing here perhaps a little bit, but that's what I could see happening if all the algos start trading the producers, which would be absolutely ridiculous because it seems very much out of touch.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Very interesting. Interesting dynamics out there for sure. I'm curious if there's something that you kind of see in the precious metal space that's important to you that a lot of the mainstream analysts seem to be ignoring.

Kai Hoffmann: I think we haven't realized how healthy the sector is. And what the sector actually does, I'm not sure if you've seen that CNBC interview, maybe two weeks ago now, but one of the fund managers on the program was asked what she thinks about Agnico Eagle and her answer was, "Well, we don't invest in non-cash flowing companies." It's like, wait a second, Agnico Eagle is the second largest or maybe third largest gold mining company, and they produce billions in free cashflow every year, free cashflow, cash flow. So, people don't know what the gold mining space is still. I think that's maybe a major hurdle that it's still a very misunderstood, misrepresented sector in portfolios or in general in the marketplace. There's only one company in the S&P 500 that is Newmont that's maybe some people might know that one as a generalist investor and maybe a positive is we're seeing more pension funds come back of course as well.

So, the general investor is coming back starting to understand gold a bit more. It's tough to ignore with 3,000 or $2,500 worth of margins and the free cash flow. All the big producers are sitting on net cash, Barrick, Newmont net cash position. We haven't seen that in ages. They've been so restrictive investing capital and there's, what do we call it? They're paying higher and higher dividends. They're doing share buybacks, everything that attracts the generalist investor. So, I think that's still misunderstood. I think it's still an opportunity. You can still get in before the flood of money arrives, in my opinion. And I think that's the biggest factor is just still a very misunderstood sector.

Mike Maharrey: Gold's just not very sexy. It's a rock.

Kai Hoffmann: You've held a bullion bar. It is sexy. Absolutely.

Mike Maharrey: Oh, it is!

Kai Hoffmann: It is. The mining part is not sexy.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. No, but I think that's the perception. Yeah. I actually had the opportunity a few weeks ago. I was out at our bullion depository out in Idaho and got to play around with some thousand out silver bars. Those are fun. But I do think a lot of people, ooh, AI, ooh, Bitcoin, there's these cool tech things. And then you've got this gold and it's been around 5,000 years and whatever. But I don't know, it's been around 5,000 years. That's telling us something, right?

Kai Hoffmann: Yeah, exactly. Like I mentioned earlier, gold has proven its worth and its role over and over again. We've just seen it again last month here in March. Turkey needed to stabilize its currency. They sold gold. Why? Because it's a liquid market. Everybody wants it and it has those properties. It is that safe haven investment.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Russia is another example. I mean, no matter what you may think of them, they played their finances pretty well. They've got this large stock of gold and now they're using it as they see necessary. So, it's definitely a safety hedge, I guess. So, I've got one more question for you. This one's just kind of a fun one I like to ask folks. And I'm curious if you have a particular gold coin or a round or even a bar, something that you really like, or silver. We can do silver too. Something that you just particularly like for whatever reason.

Kai Hoffmann: I'm a bit of an airline nerd when it comes to that. And somebody gifted me a silver coin that has an A380 on it. It's from the French Central Bank, I think, or French mint. So that's a bit of a special piece. Another piece I like is actually I have a five kilogram copper bar here in the office as well. Very different of course, but something I could afford at the time and could still afford. It's a five kilo copper bar and it's shiny. It's nice. So it's not like the typical the Vienna Philharmonic or the pandas and all that. No, I like those things. I even got a smaller copper bar. I just like the color of copper. Of course, I own some other silver stuff. And as I said, that A380 silver coin has a special place on my shelf as well. But I like copper. It looks cool. That color is fantastic. It has a cool effect.

Mike Maharrey: I've got a bunch of old pennies back from when they actually made pennies out of copper. Of course, they don't make them at all anymore.

Kai Hoffmann: Oh, were the banks full of pennies still sitting in the vault there in Idaho?

Mike Maharrey: Yeah.

Kai Hoffmann: There were tons of pennies. There were tons of pennies. Literally tons of pennies.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. A lot of them, the old Indian, not Indian heads, but the wheat-head is what we call them. So, they're older. Yeah, it's very cool. All right. Well, let folks know where they can follow you and avail themselves of your wonderful mind.

Kai Hoffmann: Absolutely. Yeah. I'm very active on X. So at Junior Mining Guy is probably the easiest. I'm on LinkedIn. Join me in Frankfurt at our Deutsche Goetmesa here in November again, November 13th and 14th. Of course, a bit of a trek for some, but we had American and US visitors at the last conference. We even had a couple come out of Australia to attend the event. Others, I'm still mind blown by that fact and it's absolutely amazing. But I think that's the easiest way to reach me. Either meet me in person at one of the events. I'll be at Rick Rules Conference. I'll be in New Orleans this fall and then our own event, just say hi, reach out. DMs are open on X as well. So just reach out.

Mike Maharrey: Absolutely. Appreciate you taking a little bit of time out of your day. I know that you're busy. You're in the middle of your day. I'm in the morning. So you woke me up though, so that's good. I definitely appreciate your time and thank you very much for coming on the show.

Kai Hoffmann: Thanks for having me on, Mike. Much appreciated. It was fun.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah.

Really like Kai Hoffmann and it was great to have him back on the show. You’ll definitely want to check out his highly regarded podcast – again that’s called Soar Financially – and you’ll certainly get some more terrific commentary on the metals and all financial markets if you do.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don’t forget to tune into the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey and airing each Wednesday. To listen to any of our audio programs just go to https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts, or find them on wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with https://www.moneymetals.com/";>Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a great weekend everybody.

Australian Prospectors Say Getting Gold Isn't As Easy as It Looks!

Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

I want gold.

But I don’t want to dig.

When I was a kid, my mom used to tell me I’d better do my homework, or I would end up digging ditches for a living. In retrospect, there could have been worse fates than digging ditches. However, at nearly 60, I’m glad I’m not depending on my back to make a living. Mad respect to those of you who are!

But no. I have no desire to stick a shovel in the dirt, hunting for gold.

Now, to be fair, this is partly a function of the fact that there isn’t any gold to dig for nearby. Florida is not exactly a hotbed for prospecting. If there were gold nearby, perhaps I would be more motivated to dig.

Because I do want gold!

!!--Product-12--!!

Most people do. In fact, I think it would be safe to say that the vast majority of the people in the world want gold. After all, gold is money – no matter where you are. And unlike me, some people are willing to go to great lengths to get it.

With https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold prices up 119 percent from where they were in January 2024, there is a bit of a gold rush going on in Australia.

The Sydney Morning Herald highlighted what it described as https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/striking-gold-is-the-dream-for-thousands-of-australians-but-there-s-a-paradox-holding-them-back-20260512-p5zvyz.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a “mini modern-day gold rush” in the Land Down Under. The article underscores just how difficult it is to dig gold out of the ground.

Matthew Carkeek owns a concrete construction firm, and he’s caught gold fever. He’s paid over $1.5 million on land, equipment, and permits. And he’s operating on a bare-bones budget.

“What I’m going for is about as simple as you can get. There’s no treatment plant, there’s no wash plant, no chemicals or anything like that. It’s literally dig, doze and detect.”

Sounds like high risk and a lot of work.

The Morning Herald doesn’t exactly make it sound appealing.

“Finding gold is often hot, hard, dirty, physical work involving lots of walking and digging in remote and difficult-to-get-to locations, prospectors say.”

Doesn’t sound like a fun way to spend a Saturday.

And the truth is, there’s a strong likelihood Carkeek will never see a return on that investment. The president of Sydney’s prospector club concedes this reality.

“[People] join the club, and they quickly realize it’s not as easy as it looks. You probably spend more money looking for gold than actually finding gold.”

West Australia’s Association of Mining and Exploration Companies CEO Warren Pearce called gold a “misery metal.”

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And yet the promise of gold draws Carkeek and thousands of others to take the risk and make the sacrifice.

According to the Morning Herald, applications for miners’ rights licenses in Victoria surged by 40 percent last year. Based on the number of permits issued, there are 113,000 active prospectors in the Australian state.

Fossickers need a government-issued miner’s right to keep any gold they find.

Yes. Fossicker is a word. It is a term used in Australia for a recreational prospector who searches for gold, gemstones, or fossils by sifting through gravel, rivers, and waste piles. Think of a fossicker as an amateur miner.

Anyway, I get it. These folks can literally dig money out of the ground – real money.

Sound money.

Pearce understands exactly why gold has suddenly found itself in the spotlight. Sure, the price is attractive, but there is something more fundamental going on right now.

“The reality is this safe haven asset does very well when things are going wrong in the world, when there are multiple conflicts and a real lack of confidence around the global economy.”

All of that sounds about right, doesn’t it?

It’s almost enough to motivate me to start digging.

The good news is I don't have to. I can get gold by simply calling 800-800-1865 or perusing the Money Metals website. It's much less work, and it'll probably save me money!

The State of the American Consumer: Broke, Stressed, and Buried in Debt

Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

I often see mainstream headlines touting the resilience of the American consumer. These stories almost always refer to strong retail sales figures signaling Americans’ willingness to keep spending money. However, there is a dark side to this spending pattern that often goes unnoticed.

There is a difference between spending because you can and spending because you have to. When prices rise, spending necessarily rises with them, and that’s exactly what is happening to the American consumer.

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Rising retail sales figures aren’t inflation-adjusted, meaning they reflect both the number of items sold and the price of those items. When gasoline prices spike, retail sales necessarily spike right along with them. So, when the cost of everyday necessities rises, people have little choice but to spend more. After all, you still have to buy groceries and put gasoline in your car.

What is a cash-strapped consumer to do?

Drain your savings and turn to Visa and Mastercard.

This is exactly what Americans have done. They’ve blown through their savings and buried themselves in debt.

Blowing Through Our Savings

As Americans endured the COVID era locked in their homes, they managed to save a lot of money. In April 2020, the personal saving rate skyrocketed to 31.8 percent. It was by far the highest level since the 1960s.

Now the savings are gone.

Aggregate savings peaked at $2.1 trillion in August 2021. By June 2023, the San Francisco Fed estimated that aggregate savings had dropped to $190 billion.

In other words, Americans blew through $1.9 trillion in savings in just two years.

By March 2024, the San Francisco Fed estimated that the entirety of those excess savings was gone.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/savings-depletion.png"; width="679" height="431" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

And Americans aren’t replacing that savings cushion.

In April, the personal savings rate plunged to 2.6 percent. That’s the lowest level since just before the 2008 Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. It is getting close to the all-time low of 1.4 percent in July 2005.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/fed-savings-rate-April-26.png"; width="800" height="406" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

Note that the savings crash preceded the Great Recession.

Burning Up the Plastic

So, what do you do when https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/12/no-matter-how-you-slice-the-data-it-come-up-inflation-004912";>prices are soaring, you’ve tightened your budget as much as you can, and you still can’t make ends meet?

You pull out the plastic.

This explains why https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/?utm_source=chatgpt.com"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">consumer debt is at a record level of $5.14 trillion. Revolving debt, primarily reflecting credit card balances, has surged to a record $1.4 trillion.

As Americans were beefing up their savings during the pandemic, they also paid down credit card debt. Revolving debt dropped below $1 trillion in 2020.

Mainstream analysts tend to look at various data points in isolation. They see strong retail sales numbers and immediately conclude the consumer is doing well. But when you start putting things together, a different picture emerges.

For instance, March retail sales surged by 1.5 percent as gasoline prices skyrocketed. Yay! But that same month, revolving debt also surged, growing by 9.1 percent. That seems to indicate that a large percentage of March’s surging retail sales were paid for with credit cards.

This does not scream “resilient consumer.” In fact, it smacks of desperation.

The big jump in consumer debt in March broke a trend of slowing debt growth. This may indicate that consumers are getting close to their credit limits.

American Consumers Under Stress

!!--Product-Random-Featured-All--!!

They are certainly struggling with the growing debt burden and higher prices.

U.S. credit card delinquencies spiked in April. According to the latest New York Fed data, 13.1 percent of credit card balances are at least 90 days overdue. That’s the highest level since the late stages of the Great Recession.

Serious credit card delinquencies have climbed by 5.5 percent since the third quarter of 2022. That’s a faster deterioration pace than what we saw during the 2007-2010 period.

According to NY Fed data, credit card balances ticked down in Q1 2026. This indicates that consumers have slowed their pace of debt accumulation (It’s hard to charge it when you’ve hit your credit limit) even as they are struggling to service their existing debt.

Lower-income Americans are feeling the biggest pinch. However, affluent areas are also charting a rise in delinquency.

LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) reflects the strain. As a spokesperson put it, “Financial strain has settled into a new normal for American households.”

The CSLI dipped in Q1 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. However, the index was 11.6 percent higher than a year ago.

According to the report, the quarter-on-quarter dip was “largely due to seasonal tax refund relief in the Consumer Finance sector.”

“The index remains at an elevated level consistent with sustained, broad-based financial distress.”

The LegalShield Bankruptcy subindex was up 2 percent in Q1, charting an 8 percent increase year over year. According to LegalShield, its bankruptcy data has historically served as a leading indicator, preceding actual non-business bankruptcy filings by two quarters with a .95 correlation since 2006.

The Foreclosure subindex was up 20.3 percent year-over-year. That was the highest level since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. LegalShield called it “the sharpest signal of distress in the current economy.”

“Homeowners are facing severe payment shock driven by escrow resets. National homeowners’ insurance premiums rose 70 percent between 2019 and 2025, now accounting for 14 percent of the average monthly mortgage payment. The principal isn't the problem; the total monthly obligation has quietly reset higher.”

So, when you see mainstream reports touting the “strong consumer,” take them with a grain of salt. Ask yourself, “What data points are they missing or just ignoring?” Because taken as a whole, the data points to a consumer at the end of his proverbial rope.

This underscores a broader point. An economy built on borrowing and spending money for stuff isn’t sustainable. At some point, consumers will crack under the pressure, taking this debt-riddled bubble economy down with them.

British Royal Mint Reports Record Bullion Sales

Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

The British Royal Mint reported record gold and silver bullion sales in the first quarter of this year, reflecting strong demand for physical gold in the UK.

In a statement, the Royal Mint said that capital gains tax-exempt gold bullion sales increased 94 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, silver bullion sales soared by 1,000 percent in the same period.

In total, Royal Mint transaction volumes were up 130 percent year-on-year in Q1.

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During the 2025/2026 fiscal year (April-March), the Royal Mint reported a 49 percent increase in the number of customers buying and selling bullion via https://www.royalmint.com/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">RoyalMint.com. Around 60 percent of those people were first-time customers at the mint.

According to a Royal Mint spokesperson, the number of new customers set an all-time high in the fourth quarter.

Royal Mint officials called silver “the standout metal” in the first quarter. Investors poured into silver, taking advantage of the bull market to diversify their portfolios.

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/how-a-silver-shortage-sparked-a-historic-price-rally-004839";>A pair of squeezes pushed the price of silver to a record high of over $100 an ounce in early January.

Some investors saw the skyrocketing silver price as an opportunity to take profits. The Royal Mint said the value of silver buybacks rose 3,300 percent over the same period last year.

Even with a sharp rise in sales, Royal Mint officials described investor sentiment toward silver as “firmly bullish” despite increased volatility in the precious metals sector.

“Customers purchased two ounces of silver for every ounce sold back, signaling strong conviction in the metal's longer-term trajectory.”

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Royal Mint private wealth consultant Stuart O’Reilly said the strong sales over the last financial year signal “a fundamental shift in how investors are thinking about their portfolios.”

“Precious metals are increasingly being seen as an essential hedge against inflation and potential stock market volatility, and that conviction is driving record numbers of new and existing customers to The Royal Mint.”

O’Reilly said that while momentum in the precious metals sector has slowed due to impacts stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict, recent downward price action hasn’t significantly impacted investor sentiment.

“While the recent retracement in prices appears to be a result of short-term interest rate expectations, our customers are taking a longer-term view. They're diversifying into precious metals as a hedge against inflation and a potential stock market correction, and many are doing so in a tax-efficient way through CGT-exempt UK bullion coins.”

Malaysia Levies 10% Import Duty on Investment Gold

Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Malaysia has joined India in hiking its import duty on gold.

Traders and dealers in the Southeast Asian nation said officials have already started charging a 10 percent levy on certain gold bar shipments into the country. The move has reportedly disrupted bullion trade in the regional market.

According to reporting by Kitco News, the tariff officially goes into effect on June 8.

Earlier this month, the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/13/india-hikes-gold-and-silver-import-duties-to-support-rupee-004917";>Indian government hiked the import duty on precious metals from 6 percent to 15 percent in an attempt to moderate the country's trade deficit and support the rupee.

!!--Product-Random-Hot-2--!!

With both gold and oil prices spiking, India’s import bill exploded, putting significant downward pressure on the rupee. The tax hike is intended to discourage imports to narrow that trade deficit.

Analysts at the World Gold Council said higher https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/26/how-will-higher-import-taxes-impact-indian-gold-and-silver-markets-004938";>Indian import taxes have had a limited impact on the market in the past.

It remains unclear what motivated the tax hike in Malaysia, as officials have not provided much information. According to Bloomberg, a Royal Malaysian Customs Department spokesperson said that the Ministry of Finance will be “engaging with the industry” regarding the imports of “minted gold products.”

Many analysts believe Malaysian officials made the move for similar reasons as Indian policymakers, as many countries try to manage their currencies and trade deficits in a period of rapidly rising oil prices.

There is also speculation that government officials want to exert tighter control over the gold market as demand has exploded over the last year. Bloomberg reported, “In Malaysia, some local banks have introduced gold investment products over the past year, and Loomis AB, a bullion logistics company, opened a vault near the country’s capital to cater to the growing demand.”

The tax appears to be limited to gold bars meeting LBMA standards. These are primarily used by banks, institutions, and bullion dealers. This would effectively create a two-tiered gold import policy, with investment-grade bars taxed while lower-quality bars and jewelry remain exempt.

In practice, Banks offering LBMA-standard gold bars will be required to add the entire tax to the cost, widening the spread between local and spot prices in the country.

According to Bloomberg, the tax has already disrupted the Southeast Asian gold market.

“Some shipments were held at customs or have been diverted elsewhere as the extra cost — without a comparable rise in local gold prices — would make the imports unprofitable, some of the people said.”

Analysts say higher import duties could have spillover effects into the broader gold market. Juris Hour senior editor Mariya Paliwala said she’s keeping an eye on ETF premiums, particularly in India's silver market.

“These premiums represent the additional amount investors pay above the underlying net asset value (NAV) of the assets held by the fund. Restrictions on silver imports have generated concerns that supply channels could tighten if demand rises sharply. Such circumstances may create distortions between physical availability and ETF pricing.”

Taxes on gold and silver are particularly pernicious because they are essentially taxing money. In effect, India and Malaysia appear to be trying to raise the price of good money to protect their rapidly devaluing fiat currency.

$40 Million in Gov’t Black-Budget Gold Seized from Ex-CIA Officer’s Home

Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

A former senior CIA official has been implicated in a scheme to apparently steal some $40 million in gold bars that he has obtained from the government for unspecified “work-related expenses.”

The ex-CIA official, David Rush, was arrested on May 19, a day after the FBI raided his home and found the allegedly misappropriated gold.

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According to charging papers, the FBI initially investigated Rush for lying on his resume. For instance, Rush allegedly said in an application to enter the “senior executive service” level ranks that he was the “director of test” for a joint Army/Navy weapons test organization. However, his military records showed that he separated from the Navy in 2015.

The charging papers don’t explain what those work-related expenses entail, nor do they identify Rush as having worked for the CIA. It was the https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/27/us/politics/fbi-arrest-cia-official-gold-bars.html?smid=url-share"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">New York Times that reported Rush’s CIA background. Presumably, the gold was intended to be used for a covert operation.

“During the search, FBI agents seized approximately 303 gold bars, each of which weighs approximately one kilogram,” court records say. “Based on the current price of gold, the estimated value of the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold exceeds $40 million.”

The charging papers also say that agents seized about $2 million in U.S. currency, as well as 35 luxury watches.

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Gold’s “Higher for Longer” Narrative May Be Missing the Bigger Picture

Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey challenged what he described as a deeply flawed mainstream narrative surrounding gold, inflation, and interest rates. Drawing parallels to common myths passed down through generations — like cracking knuckles causing arthritis or bread crust containing more vitamins — Maharrey argued that repetition does not make an idea true.

According to Maharrey, mainstream financial media outlets such as CNBC and Fox Business are pushing the idea that gold and silver prices are under pressure because the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates “higher for longer” in response to inflation tied to escalating oil prices and the ongoing U.S.-Iran war. Gold has reportedly fallen more than 11% from its January https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>high above $5,100 an ounce, while silver has also struggled to regain upward momentum.

The prevailing assumption, Maharrey said, is that higher interest rates hurt gold because gold is a “non-yielding asset.” Investors, according to this theory, are supposedly shifting toward bonds and other interest-bearing investments. But Maharrey argued that this explanation overlooks two crucial realities: real interest rates and the growing “debt black hole” threatening the U.S. economy.

Maharrey stressed that markets appear to be reacting to war headlines almost mechanically. Negative developments in the Middle East tend to push gold lower because traders assume inflation will remain elevated and force the Fed to stay hawkish.

Meanwhile, any signs of peace talks send gold and silver prices higher on hopes of future rate cuts. Yet he argued that beneath this short-term volatility, the long-term bullish fundamentals for precious metals remain intact, including de-dollarization trends, heavy central bank gold buying, massive government debt, persistent inflation pressures, and economic instability.

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Why Real Interest Rates Matter More Than Nominal Rates

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One of Maharrey’s central arguments focused on the distinction between nominal and real interest rates. He noted that mainstream commentators routinely cite Treasury yields without factoring in inflation, which distorts the actual purchasing-power return investors receive.

Using a hypothetical example, Maharrey explained that if a 10-year Treasury bond yields 4.6% while CPI inflation runs at 3.8%, the real interest rate is only 0.8%. In his view, such a modest real return is hardly enough to justify abandoning gold and silver.

He further argued that official CPI data understates true inflation because of formula changes made in the 1990s. Maharrey claimed that using older CPI calculations from the 1970s would place inflation closer to 6% or 7%, meaning real interest rates could already be deeply negative. If inflation were to rise above 5% while Treasury yields remained around 4.6%, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/21/a-turning-point-sovereign-bond-yields-soaring-004929";>investors would actually lose purchasing power by holding bonds.

According to Maharrey, this misunderstanding of real rates is one of the biggest weaknesses in the mainstream bearish case against gold. He emphasized that rising nominal rates alone do not automatically make bonds attractive if inflation continues eroding purchasing power.

The “Debt Black Hole” and the Fed’s Catch-22

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The second major theme centered on what Maharrey called the “debt black hole,” a term he credited to analyst Greg Weldon. He argued that the modern U.S. economy is so burdened by debt that it cannot tolerate high interest rates indefinitely.

Maharrey contended that the Federal Reserve faces a fundamental contradiction. On one hand, it is expected to fight inflation by keeping rates elevated. On the other, sustained high rates threaten to burst what he described as a debt-fueled economic bubble. He argued that the economy never fully purged the distortions created during the 2008 financial crisis and that pandemic-era stimulus only worsened those structural imbalances.

He pointed to the Fed’s historical behavior during previous crises — including the dot-com collapse, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-era downturn — as evidence that policymakers ultimately prioritize economic rescue over inflation control. In each case, the Fed responded with rate cuts, quantitative easing, and large-scale money creation.

Although Maharrey acknowledged the possibility that current Fed leadership could behave differently, he remained skeptical. He specifically mentioned new Fed Governor Kevin Walsh but argued that monetary easing remains the only policy “fork” the central bank truly knows how to use.

Because of this, Maharrey warned listeners not to overreact to temporary price weakness in gold and silver caused by geopolitical headlines. Historically, he noted, wars often create initial volatility in precious metals markets, but longer-term monetary trends ultimately dominate pricing.

Inflation Is Not a Bug — It’s a Feature

The podcast then shifted into a broader philosophical discussion about inflation, fiat currency, and government power. Maharrey argued that inflation is not an accidental flaw in the modern monetary system but rather an intentional feature that enables government expansion.

He cited Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, who described sound money as a safeguard for civil liberties comparable to constitutions and bills of rights. Maharrey argued that sound money restrains governments by limiting their ability to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/14/tax-revenues-drive-april-budget-surplus-even-as-spending-keeps-going-up-004918";>create money and finance endless spending.

He also referenced historian Tom Woods, who has argued that the destruction of sound money has contributed to broader societal problems affecting science, food, architecture, family life, and culture. According to Maharrey, fiat monetary systems allow governments to grow far beyond what taxpayers would otherwise tolerate.

The host repeatedly emphasized that inflation functions as a hidden tax. Quoting Benjamin Franklin and Gouverneur Morris, Maharrey argued that America’s Founding Fathers understood currency depreciation as a stealth form of taxation that reduces purchasing power over time.

How the Federal Reserve Creates Inflation

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Maharrey spent a significant portion of the episode explaining how the Federal Reserve allegedly enables government overspending through money creation and debt monetization. He argued that inflation should properly be understood not simply as rising prices, but as an expansion of the money and credit supply.

He described how the U.S. government finances deficits by issuing Treasury bonds while the Federal Reserve suppresses borrowing costs through artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing programs. During QE operations, the Fed purchases Treasury securities and mortgage-backed assets using newly created money, effectively injecting fresh liquidity into the economy.

Maharrey highlighted the COVID-era response as a prime example. He said the Federal Reserve monetized nearly all pandemic-era borrowing through approximately $5 trillion in quantitative easing, enabling trillions in stimulus spending while dramatically expanding the money supply. According to Maharrey, Americans later paid for that monetary expansion through sharply higher prices at grocery stores and gas stations.

He argued that such large-scale monetary intervention would have been impossible under a gold- or silver-backed system because sound money constrains unlimited money creation. Maharrey also referenced Franklin D. Roosevelt’s gold confiscation policies in the 1930s as an example of governments removing monetary restraints in order to expand spending power.

Gold and Silver as Protection Against Monetary Debasement

Throughout the episode, Maharrey consistently returned to the idea that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/26/sound-money-the-enemy-of-big-government-and-a-friend-to-liberty-004939";>gold and silver serve as essential protection against inflation and currency debasement. He encouraged listeners to maintain at least some allocation to precious metals regardless of short-term market fluctuations.

Recognizing that many Americans feel financially strained, Maharrey promoted Money Metals’ monthly purchase program, which allows customers to accumulate gold and silver starting at $100 per month. He described the current sideways trading action in gold and silver as a potential buying opportunity, particularly during market selloffs tied to war-related news.

The episode closed with Maharrey reiterating his belief that inflation will persist because governments fundamentally depend on fiat money systems to sustain borrowing and spending. While he acknowledged that dismantling the fiat system is politically unlikely, he argued that individuals can still protect themselves by owning physical precious metals and avoiding excessive exposure to depreciating paper currency.

What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation? - Real Rates, Fed Policy, and Historical Trends - Money Metals

Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 EST

Inflation rarely feels abstract when you're living through it. Your grocery bills rise even when your list remains the same. Rent, insurance, and utility costs rise bit by bit each month. As if that wasn't bad enough, the cash in your savings account gradually loses purchasing power.

The solution? Many recommend buying gold, but that begs a question: what happens to gold prices during inflation?

Gold cannot be printed by central banks or created with few keystrokes. That scarcity is one reason many people view it as a form of “real money” during inflationary periods. These factors have led many to conclude that gold is the perfect counterbalance to inflation, always rising in value as inflation rises.

The truth is actually a little more complicated. It is certainly true that gold has historically performed well during inflationary eras. However, there have also been periods when inflation rose sharply and https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>gold prices moved sideways. Sometimes, gold prices have even declined.

Understanding what happens to gold prices during inflation can help you make better future investment decisions. So, let's go deeper than the myths and examine the https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price-history";>historical records to see how gold behaves during inflation.

Quick Answer

What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation?

Typically, gold prices rise in times of high inflation. Dollar devaluation often drives investors to look for hard assets that preserve their purchasing power. However, that does not mean gold always moves higher during inflation. Interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, real yields, and U.S. dollar strength can all significantly affect gold prices. You can see this in the table below.

Inflation Scenario	Typical Gold Behavior
Moderate inflation	Gold often rises gradually
High inflation + low rates	Gold tends to perform strongly
High inflation + aggressive Fed hikes	Gold may become volatile
Stagflation	Historically bullish for gold

What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation and Why

Fiat currency can expand at any time. Governments and central banks can expand the money supply through several processes, including:

stimulus programs
deficit spending
low-interest-rate policies

Gold functions differently. The only way to grow the global supply of gold is through mining. That gradual growth makes gold scarce, and that scarcity makes gold a hedge against inflation.

That makes it an excellent long-term store of value.

Investors treat gold as a safe haven investment in times of economic instability. Investors turn toward these hard assets when they lose trust in the financial system. The reason is that gold has a reputation as being independent of the banking system.

However, inflation is not the only thing that affects gold prices.

Real interest rates are one of the most important drivers. These rates measure the return investors earn after accounting for inflation.

Here's a simplified formula to help you determine real interest rates:

Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation Rate

Let's look at an example. Let's say your savings account yields 3% while inflation runs at 6%. In this case, the real return is actually negative 3%.

In environments like this, holding cash or bonds becomes less attractive because investors are effectively losing purchasing power every year.

Gold often performs best when real yields are deeply negative. Investors become more willing to invest in bullion when traditional “safe” assets are failing to preserve wealth in real terms. In better inflationary cycles, people are less willing to invest in gold commodities. These investments do not generate yields or dividends, which makes them poor investments for generating wealth.

This distinction is critical because gold does not simply rise whenever inflation rises. If central banks aggressively increase interest rates faster than inflation climbs, real yields can turn positive and pressure gold prices lower.

Investors benefit greatly from understanding that relationship. When you do, you can grasp what happens to gold prices during inflation, even if it struggles in times of rising consumer prices.

Historical Examples of Gold During High Inflation Periods

Gold has historically performed well in inflation periods. However, this is not because that is a guaranteed pattern. Several causes affected those moves in different instances.

In some cases, gold rallied because inflation was already surging. In others, investors bought gold to counterbalance future currency debasement or financial instability. Looking at past inflation cycles helps explain why gold sometimes thrives … and why it sometimes disappoints investors.

The 1970s Inflation Crisis

The 1970s are the classic example of a time when inflation ran wild to gold's benefit. In 1971, President Richard Nixon officially ended the Bretton Woods system, which was the nation's final tether to the gold standard. This move ended the dollar's convertibility into gold. Before that shift, foreign governments could exchange U.S. dollars for gold at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce.

Once the gold standard ended, the dollar officially transitioned to a fiat currency. At the same time, several other things occurred:

Government spending expanded
Money supply growth accelerated
Inflation pressures intensified

Then the oil shocks came, one in 1973 and the other in 1979. Energy prices surged, consumer prices skyrocketed, and confidence in the purchasing power of the dollar deteriorated. Inflation eventually reached double digits in the United States.

The gold market responded accordingly.

In the early 1970s, gold traded at $35 per ounce. By the end of the decade, gold prices had briefly surpassed $800 per ounce by January 1980.

The crucial thing to note here is that this rise was not just a response to increased prices. Investors were buying gold because they had lost trust in the entire monetary system. Faith in the dollar and in the central bank were drastically weakened.

Here's what investors should take from this: when inflation rises faster than politicians can restrain it, it's a recipe for strong gold performance.

The 2008 Financial Crisis and Quantitative Easing Era

The inflation fears following the 2008 financial crisis were different from what happened in the 1970s.

One major difference was that consumer price inflation remained fairly subdued. Nevertheless, investors became increasingly concerned about the long-term consequences of the aggressive monetary stimulus policies pushed by the federal government.

The housing collapse and banking crisis brought a need for financial stability. The Federal Reserve attempted this by slashing interest rates to near zero, then followed that with massive quantitative easing programs. The Fed created trillions of dollars in liquidity through large-scale bond purchases. That, in turn, expanded its balance sheet.

Many investors worried that these policies would devalue the dollar and cause more inflation in the future. So, to head that off, investors turned to gold and prompted a surge in the market. The gold price moved from roughly $700 per ounce in 2008, rising to record highs in 2011. That year, gold hit $1,900 per ounce in 2011.

This economic episode highlighted another critical gold takeaway: gold does not just respond to current inflation data. Future monetary instability and currency devaluation can have a tremendous impact on gold here.

The Post-2020 Inflation Surge

A few factors combined to create the inflationary period that followed 2020. The two main causes were monetary stimulus and real-world supply shortages. Governments and central banks injected high amounts of liquidity into the global economy to fight the shutdowns:

Stimulus checks
Emergency lending programs
Ultra-low interest rates

At the same time, supply chain disruptions constrained the availability of goods ranging from automobiles to electronics to energy products. When the economies reopened, demand recovered faster than supply could respond.

The result was the higher U.S. inflation in roughly 40 years.

Many investors expected gold prices to soar far beyond previous highs. And, initially, that seemed like the likely outcome. Gold initially rallied strongly during the early stages of the pandemic and briefly broke the $2,000 per ounce mark in 2020.

And yet, as inflation continued to accelerate in 2021 and 2022, gold's performance became much more volatile than many anticipated. The Federal Reserve had a crucial role in this performance. Unlike the 1970s, the Fed moved aggressively to raise interest rates in an effort to slow inflation. Higher rates increased Treasury yields and strengthened the U.S. dollar.

Both of these moves created headwinds for gold.

That period revealed why inflation alone does not guarantee an explosive gold rally. When central banks raise rates aggressively enough to improve real yields and support the dollar, it can cause gold to struggle. That remains the case even if consumer prices remain elevated.

Still, gold remained relatively resilient compared to many financial assets during the inflation surge. While stocks and bonds experienced sharp volatility, gold continued to serve as a portfolio stabilizer and long-term store of value for many investors.

Does Gold Always Go Up During Inflation?

Though this surprises many, the answer is actually no. Despite gold's reputation as an inflation hedge, gold prices do not automatically rise every time inflation increases.

Unfortunately, that is one of the biggest misconceptions in the precious metals market.

Inflation certainly creates conditions that can benefit gold, and it is true that gold, over the long-term, acts as a hedge against inflation. However, several interconnected economic factors play into gold prices, and many can overpower inflation in the short-term.

One of the most important variables is real interest rates. Gold tends to thrive when inflation rises faster than interest rates because investors earn negative real returns on cash and bonds. When the Federal Reserve ramps up rates to fight inflation, though, it makes other investments more attractive than gold. The usual options are Treasuries, since they produce yields, and savings instruments.

2022 provides an excellent example of this dynamic. Inflation surged to multi-decade highs, but gold struggled to keep its momentum for much of the year. That happened because the Federal Reserve rapidly increased interest rates. Higher yields strengthened the U.S. dollar and increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

A strong dollar environment can also pressure gold prices lower. Since gold is globally priced in dollars, rising dollar values often reduce international demand for bullion by making it more expensive in foreign currencies.

Gold can even decline during periods of severe financial stress. In major liquidity crunches, investors might sell gold alongside stocks and other assets to get more cash soon. This occurred briefly during the 2008 financial crisis and again during the early stages of the 2020 pandemic market panic.

The table below illustrates how gold typically reacts under different economic conditions:

Economic Environment	Typical Gold Reaction
High inflation + low real rates	Strongly bullish for gold
High inflation + aggressive Fed hikes	Mixed or volatile performance
Deflation or recession panic	Initially volatile, later often supportive
Strong U.S. dollar cycle	Often bearish pressure on gold
Geopolitical instability or banking stress	Typically supportive for gold demand

Several other factors can play major roles in gold price movements, including:

Investor sentiment
Geopolitical risk
Central bank buying

In recent years, central banks around the world have increased gold purchases as part of broader efforts to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar.

Ultimately, gold performs best not simply during inflation, but during periods when confidence in monetary policy, fiat currency stability, or financial markets begins to weaken.

Gold vs Other Inflation Hedges

When inflation accelerates, investors search for assets that can preserve purchasing power better than the standard dollar. Gold is one of the most popular inflation hedges, but it's not the only option. Others include:

Stocks
Real estate
Silver
Cash-equivalent investments

All of these respond differently during inflationary periods. The key difference is that each asset protects wealth in a different way. That means they each come with different advantages and disadvantages.

Asset	Inflation Protection Potential	Main Advantage	Main Risk
Gold	High during monetary instability	Store of value and safe-haven asset	Can underperform during rising real rates
Cash	Low	Liquidity and stability	Purchasing power erosion
Stocks	Moderate to high long term	Corporate earnings growth	Valuation pressure during inflation spikes
Real Estate	Moderate to high	Tangible asset with rental income	Interest rate sensitivity and illiquidity
Silver	High but volatile	Monetary and industrial demand	Greater price swings than gold

Gold vs cash: Cash may feel safe during uncertain economic periods, but inflation steadily erodes its purchasing power. Even modest inflation can take a heavy toll on your savings' value over time. Gold does not produce a yield, but it does retain its purchasing power far better than cash during prolonged inflationary environments or periods of currency weakness.
Gold vs stocks: Stocks can outperform inflation over the long run because businesses can raise their prices and build their earnings over time. However, high inflation often forces stock valuations downward in the short term. That is especially true when rising interest rates increase borrowing costs and slow economic growth. Gold tends to perform differently than equities, which is one reason many investors use it as a portfolio diversifier during volatile periods.
Gold vs real estate: Real estate is another popular inflation hedge because property values and rental income often rise alongside consumer prices. However, real estate also depends on financing conditions. Rising mortgage rates can cool housing markets quickly, even during inflation. In contrast, gold is highly liquid and does not carry maintenance costs, tenant risk, or leverage exposure.
Gold vs silver: Silver shares many of gold's monetary characteristics. However, silver also behaves a bit differently from its counterpart due to its hybrid nature. Silver is not just a monetary metal, but an industrial metal. It is a highly used commodity in electronics, solar panels, and manufacturing.

That heightened demand makes silver more volatile. Gold tends to attract investors who want stability and wealth preservation; silver appeals to those willing to accept larger price swings in pursuit of potentially higher upside.

No inflation hedge works perfectly in every economic environment. That is why many long-term investors hold a diversified mix of assets rather than relying entirely on a single strategy. Gold's unique role is not necessarily to generate rapid growth, but to preserve purchasing power and stability for your wealth.

What Drives Gold Prices More Than Inflation?

Although inflation is closely associated with gold, it's not the only thing that determines how gold prices move. In many cases, other macroeconomic factors have a much larger impact on bullion markets than headline inflation data alone.

One crucial driver is real yields. Gold tends to perform best when inflation outpaces interest rates. That causes investors to lose purchasing power in cash and bonds.

When real returns turn negative, gold becomes more appealing. Its opportunity cost falls relative to traditional income-producing assets.

The strength of the U.S. dollar also plays a critical role. The U.S. dollar is the universal currency for pricing gold. As such, when the dollar has a rising value, it lowers the value of gold. A weakening dollar builds stronger gold demand around the world.

Another influence on gold prices is the behavior of central banks. Leading this charge are many of the BRICS countries, including:

China
India
Russia

These nations have steadily increased their gold reserves as governments seek to diversify away from overreliance on the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets. Unlike short-term traders, central banks typically buy gold as a way to diversify away from fiat currency and hedge against the dollar. These are long-term holdings, contrary to many short-term private investor stacks.

Another factor can have a drastic impact on gold prices: geopolitical instability. Wars, sanctions, banking crises, sovereign debt concerns, and broader financial system stress often push investors toward safe-haven assets. In these uncertain times, gold becomes more popular among investors worldwide. It carries no counterparty risk and holds a longstanding reputation for security.

Finally, there are ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). These are funds that provide exposure to the spot price of gold indirectly and that trade on the stock market. Their inflows and outflows can heavily influence short-term price movements. Large institutional inflows into gold-backed ETFs often signal growing investor demand, while heavy outflows can temporarily pressure prices lower.

Taken together, these factors show why the simple narrative of “inflation equals higher gold prices” is incomplete. Gold ultimately responds to broader confidence in currencies, central banks, and the stability of the global financial system.

How Investors Use Gold During Inflation

For many investors, gold is not about chasing short-term price spikes. It is about preserving your purchasing power during times of inflation or uncertain financial markets. That is why gold is treated less like a speculative trade and more like a form of monetary insurance.

Portfolio Diversification

One of the most common reasons investors buy gold during inflationary periods is portfolio diversification. Gold typically acts differently than stocks and bonds, especially in times of market stress or monetary instability. That low correlation means that gold can help reduce overall portfolio risks.

Many financial professionals recommend allocating between 5% and 15% of a portfolio to precious metals. The allocation amount depends on several factors, including:

Risk tolerance
Economic outlook
Long-term goals

Conservative investors may use gold primarily as a defensive asset. Others increase allocations when inflation risks or financial system concerns appear elevated.

Physical Gold vs ETFs

Investors can gain exposure to gold through physical bullion, or paper-based products such as exchange-traded (ETFs). Each approach has advantages and tradeoffs.

Gold ETFs offer convenience and liquidity. Shares can be bought and sold quickly through brokerage accounts, making them appealing to many short-term traders. It also appeals to investors who focus principally on price exposure.

Physical gold often appeals to a different audience. Its investors are those who prioritize direct ownership and long-term wealth preservation. Coins and bars do not carry a counterparty risk because they are tangible assets held outside the banking system. During periods of financial instability, many investors value the ability to own precious metals directly instead of relying on financial institutions.

Storage and insurance considerations are important with physical bullion. However, many long-term investors see those costs as worthwhile in exchange for direct ownership.

Coins vs Bars

Physical gold investors must also decide between coins and bars. Gold bars often carry lower premiums over spot price, especially for larger ounce purchases. This makes them a cost-efficient way to add more gold weight to your stack. In contrast, coins provide more flexibility, recognizability, and liquidity.

Popular government-minted bullion coins like the American Gold Eagle and Canadian Gold Maple Leafs are widely recognized around the world. That makes them easier to buy and sell in varying market conditions.

Many investors build positions gradually through dollar-cost averaging, purchasing gold consistently over time instead of attempting to predict short-term market movements. This long-term mindset is often the key element in using gold successfully during inflationary periods.

Common Myths About Gold and Inflation

Gold has been tied to inflation debates for decades, since the end of the Bretton Woods system. In all these debates, however, popular claims have been made that are overly simplistic or outright misleading. Understanding these myths can help investors make more informed decisions instead of reacting emotionally to headlines or market hype.

The first myth is that gold always rises during inflation. Gold does perform well during inflationary cycles typically, but it does not move higher automatically every time consumer prices rise.

Other factors influence gold prices, including real interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, and the strength of the U.S. dollar. If central banks raise rates aggressively enough to offset inflation, gold can struggle even while inflation remains elevated. That dynamic was visible during parts of 2022 when inflation surged but higher Treasury yields created headwinds for gold prices.

The second myth is that gold produces no value. Critics often argue that gold is “unproductive” because it does not pay dividends or generate cash flow. However, gold serves a different purpose than income-producing assets.

Investors typically buy gold for wealth preservation, portfolio diversification, and protection against currency debasement or financial instability. At times when stocks and bonds perform poorly in real terms, gold's defensive role can become especially valuable.

The third myth is that gold is only for crisis preppers. Gold ownership is often stereotyped as something reserved for doomsday investors or extreme pessimists. In reality, central banks, institutional investors, pension funds, and professional asset managers all hold gold as part of diversified portfolios. For many investors, gold is simply a long-term hedge against uncertainty and monetary risk.

The fourth myth is that inflation is the only reason gold moves. Inflation matters, but it is far from the only force driving gold prices. Real yields, currency markets, geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, ETF demand, and broader financial system stress can all significantly impact gold prices. Gold ultimately reflects investor confidence in currencies and the broader financial systems.

Frequently Asked Questions About What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation

Gold is one of the most established inflation hedges, but that does not mean it is the best performer in every situation. Stocks, real estate, and certain commodities can also perform well during inflationary periods. Gold's primary advantage is its long history as a store of value during monetary instability and currency debasement.

Although inflation reached multi-decade highs after 2020, the Federal Reserve responded aggressively by raising interest rates. The resulting high Treasury yields and stronger U.S. dollar created pressure on gold prices. This scenario shows that gold is not dependent on inflation alone, but also real interest rates and monetary policy.

Silver can sometimes outperform gold during inflationary bull markets because it has both monetary and industrial demand. However, silver is generally much more volatile than gold. Investors tend to prefer gold when they want security and long-term wealth preservation. In contrast, silver tends to attract investors pursuing a speculative strategy.

Stagflation combines high inflation with weak economic growth. Historically, these environments have been times of good performance for gold. These times cause many investors to lose confidence in both financial markets and fiat currencies, which in turn increases demand for a hard asset like gold.

Many investors want to acquire gold before inflation becomes a headline. The reason is simple: markets often price in inflation expectations before they fully arrive. Waiting to get gold until inflation fears become prominent often means paying significantly higher prices.

Gold's Role During Inflation Is About Purchasing Power

What happens to gold prices during inflation? It often depends on many factors. The principle that underlies how gold prices behave, however, is more consistent: during inflation, gold's role revolves around purchasing power.

While gold does not always rise in a straight line during inflation, it has repeatedly demonstrated value during periods of monetary instability, negative real interest rates, and declining confidence in financial systems.

The core lesson is that inflation alone does not determine gold prices. Real yields, central bank policy, currency strength, and investor sentiment all influence how gold performs in different economic environments.

That complexity is one reason gold remains relevant in the market even after the gold standard's end. Unlike paper assets that depend on corporate earnings or government policy, physical gold has maintained its value for millennia. That trend has remained throughout wars, recessions, inflation cycles, and currency devaluations.

For many investors, gold is not about speculations or chasing rapid gains. It is about diversification, long-term purchasing power, and financial resilience during uncertain times. In uncertain economic times, gold continues to serve as an excellent form of monetary insurance.

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What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation? - Real Rates, Fed Policy, and Historical Trends - Money Metals

What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation?

What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation and Why

Historical Examples of Gold During High Inflation Periods

The 1970s Inflation Crisis

The 2008 Financial Crisis and Quantitative Easing Era

The Post-2020 Inflation Surge

Does Gold Always Go Up During Inflation?

Gold vs Other Inflation Hedges

What Drives Gold Prices More Than Inflation?

How Investors Use Gold During Inflation

Portfolio Diversification

Physical Gold vs ETFs

Coins vs Bars

Common Myths About Gold and Inflation

Frequently Asked Questions About What Happens to Gold Prices During Inflation

Is gold the best hedge against inflation? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Why didn't gold surge during recent inflation? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Does silver perform better during inflation? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

What happens to gold during stagflation? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Should you buy gold before inflation rises? http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"; viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" class="size-5 shrink-0 transition" aria-hidden="true" x-bind:class="isExpanded ? 'rotate-180' : ''">

Gold's Role During Inflation Is About Purchasing Power