Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

Greg Weldon on Gold, the Dollar, China, and the Stagflation Threat

Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

In the latest Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey welcomed back veteran market analyst https://share.google/SMeZsOA5IVFZj0ovd"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gregory T. Weldon for a sweeping discussion on precious metals, the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, inflation, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic reality.

Although the two last spoke in January, https://www.linkedin.com/in/gweldon"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Greg Weldon joked that the time since then had felt like “a whole year of trading,” thanks to relentless volatility and the speed of market-moving events.

A major focus of the episode was the recent correction in gold and silver, even as war fears involving Iran intensified. Maharrey pointed to gold trading in a rough range between $4,500 and $5,000, while silver had fluctuated between $70 and $80.

Weldon said he was not surprised by the metals’ behavior. In Weldon’s view, if military action against Iran became more than a one-off strike, the dollar was likely to rally, and that would pressure gold and silver because both markets were already technically set up for a pullback.

(Interview Starts Around 9:14 Mark)

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Trading Is as Much Psychological as Technical

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Weldon spent time emphasizing that trading success is not just about chart patterns or macro calls. It is also about mastering the psychological struggle that comes with taking profits and living with imperfection.

Drawing on 42 years in the markets, he said one of the hardest things any trader can do is exit a winning position. Nobody consistently sells at the exact top, and every decision carries the risk of regret.

He illustrated that point with silver. He said he got out around $98 and then watched it run to roughly $115, which naturally felt frustrating. But when silver then dropped to about $75 in a matter of days, that earlier sale suddenly looked smart.

For Weldon, that emotional back-and-forth is simply part of the business. Human nature, he said, never changes, even if markets, technology, and information flow do.

Why the Dollar Matters More Than the War

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Technically, Weldon argued that both gold and silver had been tracing out classic ABC-style corrections. He said https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>silver breaking below $65 marked what he had previously called a “back the truck up” moment, even though he admitted he had not expected it to trade under that level.

In hindsight, he said the move lined up with a double bottom, a Fibonacci target, and a broader corrective low.

Still, he repeatedly returned to the same core point: the real driver is the U.S. dollar. In his view, the war with Iran did not fundamentally change the larger setup. Instead, it temporarily bailed out the dollar at a critical technical point. He described the greenback as resting on a long-term trend line tied to the 2011 low, the 2008 double bottom, and the secular pattern that reaches back to the https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plaza-accord.asp"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">1985 Plaza Accord era.

Weldon believes the dollar remains in a secular bear market. The war merely sparked a position-driven rally in a heavily shorted market.

Once investors become convinced that any ceasefire is real and likely to hold for a period of time, he expects a renewed selloff in the dollar and the beginning of the next bull leg higher in gold and silver.

The Bigger Geopolitical Shift Is Toward China

From there, Weldon broadened the conversation into a much larger geopolitical critique. He argued that the United States has alienated key allies, including NATO partners, the U.K., Canada, Spain, and Italy, while simultaneously pushing some countries into closer economic alignment with China. In his view, that has serious long-term consequences for the dollar’s role in the global system.

He tied that theme back to 2018, when China launched Shanghai crude oil futures. Weldon said he saw that moment as the start of the end for the petrodollar system. He argued that one of the biggest trades of the year remains long positions in the Chinese renminbi and in commodity-linked currencies connected to Chinese demand, including the South African rand, Brazilian real, Mexican peso, and Australian dollar.

Weldon also highlighted what he sees as an underreported political development in Taiwan. He pointed to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheng_Li-wun"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, whom he described as highly educated, with ties to Wellesley, Temple Law School, and Cambridge.

According to Weldon, she helped block a move that would have expanded Taiwan’s budget deficit to 5% of GDP and enabled a major purchase of U.S. weapons. He then cited her remarks, stressing Taiwan’s deep cultural and historical ties to mainland China.

For Weldon, that development carries enormous implications because it could strengthen Beijing’s position without a shot being fired.

Stocks Look Strong, but the Disconnect Is Growing

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Maharrey next turned to the stock market, posing a question from Mike Gleason: Can stocks just remain elevated forever?

Weldon said, “No,” even though markets often seem to act as though that is exactly what will happen. He compared the current environment to the periods before the 1987 crash and the 2008 financial crisis, two years he said were among the most profitable of his career because the warning signs were so obvious.

In the near term, Weldon still sees a path for stocks to rally if the dollar falls. A weaker dollar, he said, could lift equities along with gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. He added that he sees value in both precious metals and crypto, dismissing the argument that investors must choose one or the other.

In his mind, there is room for both digital assets and tangible hard assets in a portfolio.

But beneath that possible rally, he sees a much deeper problem. He said the market’s optimism is detached from the condition of the consumer and from the broader economy. That disconnect, he believes, will eventually close.

Weldon’s Case That Stagflation Is Already Here

Weldon’s economic outlook was especially bleak when he turned to labor market data and inflation. He argued that stagflation is no longer a future risk but a present reality. He pointed to a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/09/gold-jobs-and-the-story-behind-frances-move-004823";>March payroll gain of 170,000 jobs, which sounded solid at first glance, but said the internals told a far more troubling story.

The number of unemployed fell by 339,000, yet payrolls rose by only 170,000 because 488,000 people dropped out of the labor force in that same month. Over the last 12 months, Weldon said 2.4 million people have exited the labor force, while the 12-month rolling net gain in nonfarm payrolls was only 260,000. That pushed the labor force participation rate down to 61.9%, a level not seen outside the pandemic period since 1977.

He argued that if the 2.14 million people who effectively disappeared from the labor count were added back into official unemployment figures, the unemployment rate would be 5.6% instead of 4.3%. In his view, that would dramatically change how investors and policymakers think about labor market strength.

Consumers Are Getting Squeezed From Every Direction

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Weldon said the consumer is already under major stress. Average hours worked fell. Earnings fell. Inflation-adjusted weekly take-home pay also fell for the month. At the same time, he said gasoline prices posted the largest single-month increase in CPI history, going back to 1967.

He added that credit card debt remains above personal savings, credit card delinquency rates are the second highest since 2008, and subprime auto loan delinquencies are at record highs. Even households earning more than $100,000, based on Fed survey data he cited, now expect income growth to only match inflation. More consumers are also saying they intend to cut spending, which he said is not something the Fed’s surveys typically show in normal times.

On the inflation front, Weldon argued that the Fed is nowhere near victory. He said that of the 81 services CPI indexes he tracks, 32% are still running above 5% year over year, and 26% are above 6%. Fully 65% are above 3%, leaving inflation far from the Fed’s 2% target.

Maharrey added that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/11/cpi-spikes-on-energy-prices-but-thats-not-the-real-inflation-story-004832";>M2 money supply has been rising rapidly, while the Fed’s balance sheet is expanding again, reinforcing the concern that inflation pressures may intensify rather than fade.

A Personal Story About Silver

Toward the end of the interview, Maharrey shifted gears and asked Weldon about his first personal investment in gold or silver.

Weldon recalled that his father gave him a collection of silver bars from bullion banks in the 1970s when he was around 12 or 13 years old. He said that the gift left a lasting impression, especially because he had always been drawn to math, science, and big-picture systems.

Most of that collection was later stolen from his New Jersey home and never recovered. But one piece remains: a Bank of Ireland silver bar that he now uses as a card protector when he plays poker in World Series and World Poker Tour events.

The anecdote gave the conversation a more personal close and underscored how early exposure to hard assets can shape a person’s financial worldview for life.

The Overlooked Wild Card: Weather and Water

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Before wrapping up, Weldon flagged one more major theme that he believes is being ignored: weather. He said western U.S. snow cover is at the lowest level on record, Arctic sea surface ice has fallen below the 2012 low, and NOAA sees a one-in-four chance of the worst El Niño ever. Those conditions, he warned, could have major implications for food crops and therefore for inflation.

He also mentioned water as an increasingly important issue, noting that AI data centers are heavy water users and that water-focused ETFs such as PHO and PIO have been performing well. In his telling, weather, water, and agriculture represent another powerful inflationary wildcard that is not yet fully priced into the broader market narrative.

The Bottom Line

Weldon’s message throughout the interview was consistent. He believes the next major move is a weaker dollar and higher prices for gold and silver. But that call sits within a much darker macro framework, one defined by consumer strain, sticky inflation, labor market weakness, and growing geopolitical realignment away from the United States.

For investors, the episode offered more than just a metals outlook. It was a warning that beneath the surface of strong stock indexes and resilient market sentiment, the economic foundation may be far shakier than it appears.

Stay connected with Greg Weldon onhttps://x.com/WeldonLIVE"; target="_blank" rel="noopener"> X (formerly Twitter) @WeldonLIVE.

Stay connected with Money Metals Exchange HERE.

Silver Nickel Years: Dates, Mint Marks & Value - Money Metals

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Silver nickel years ran from 1942 to 1945, during World War II, when the U.S. Mint changed the composition of certain Jefferson nickels. Wartime nickels contain 35% silver and can be identified by a large mint mark above Monticello on the reverse.

The main point of confusion is 1942. Not all 1942 nickels contain silver, so collectors and bullion buyers need to know which dates and design features to look for.

Buyers usually have three questions: Are silver nickels a smart way to buy silver, how can you tell a silver war nickel from a regular nickel, and are silver nickels worth more than face value? Below, we'll answer those questions and explain exactly how silver nickel years worked.

The Quick Answer: Silver Nickel Years at a Glance

Silver nickels were made from 1942 to 1945. The wartime alloy did not appear until partway through 1942, which is why not all 1942 nickels contain silver. All 1943, 1944, and 1945 wartime nickels contain 35% silver.

Are All 1942 Nickels Silver?

No, and this is where beginners often get confused. Prior to America entering World War II, the nickel contained its normal alloy: 75% copper and 25% nickel.

In October 1942, the U.S. Mint changed the alloy to 35% silver, 56% copper, and 9% manganese. The reason for the change was that nickel became a valuable wartime asset, and the government allocated its nickel supply for military needs.

How to Tell if a Nickel Is Silver

Look for a large mint mark above Monticello

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The https://www.moneymetals.com/35-silver-war-nickels/322";>reverse of a wartime silver nickel should include a large mint mark over the dome of Monticello. These mint marks will include:

P (Philadelphia)
D (Denver)
S (San Francisco)

If you do not see a mint mark over Monticello, the coin is likely not a wartime nickel.

Check the date

The date is the next thing to check. Nickels dated 1942 through 1945 are the only candidates, but 1942 is a transition year, so you should always confirm by looking for the large reverse mint mark.

Home tests

There are some things you can https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/how-to-test-gold-and-silver-at-home";>try at home to ensure your coin is a silver nickel. First, check the edge of the coin. Silver naturally has a brighter, whiter sheen than a copper and nickel alloy.

Next, you can weigh the coin. A silver nickel should weigh 5 grams.

Finally, there is the magnet test. Silver is a non-magnetic metal. If you try a magnet on a silver nickel, it won't be attracted to the magnet.

Why Did the U.S. Mint Put Silver in Nickels?

The U.S. Mint added silver to certain five-cent coins because nickel metal was needed for the war effort. It was a vital metal for World War II production, specifically for armor plating, weapons, and aircraft.

Under normal circumstances, five-cent coins used a standard copper-nickel alloy. During the war, that nickel supply was redirected toward military needs.

The shift saved thousands of pounds of nickel for military use. The new 35% silver alloy was also designed to work in vending machines by mimicking the electromagnetic properties of regular nickels.

To distinguish the nickels, the Mint added marks to the silver coins. That was especially important for pre-war 1942 coins and the subsequent 1942 wartime nickels.

Silver Nickel Dates and Mint Marks

Year	Silver Nickel?	Mint Marks to Look For	Where the Mint Mark Appears	Notes
1942	Some are silver	P, D, or S	Large mint mark above Monticello on the reverse	Transition year. Not all 1942 nickels are silver.
1943	Yes	P, D, or S	Large mint mark above Monticello on the reverse	All wartime issues are 35% silver.
1944	Yes	P, D, or S	Large mint mark above Monticello on the reverse	All wartime issues are 35% silver.
1945	Yes	P, D, or S	Large mint mark above Monticello on the reverse	All wartime issues are 35% silver.

How Much Silver Is in a War Nickel?

The silver nickel has a 35% silver composition. In total, it contains 0.05626 troy oz of pure silver. As a result of that silver composition, these nickels do grant exposure to the silver spot price. However, they contain significantly less https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver";>silver than a typical junk silver coin.

Are Silver Nickels Worth Keeping?

Yes, in most cases silver nickels are worth keeping. They contain real silver, carry wartime history, and are usually worth more than face value, even when they are common dates.

For Collectors

Silver nickels are worth keeping because they offer an affordable way to own a historic US coin from the World War II era. They also make it easy for beginners to build a short date-and-mint set without spending a fortune on rarer silver coins.

For Stackers

Silver nickels are worth saving because they contain 35% silver and can sometimes be one of the cheaper ways to buy small-denomination junk silver. That said, they are not always the most efficient choice for building a silver position, so many stackers treat them as a useful add-on rather than a primary bullion product.

How Much Are Silver Nickels Worth?

Silver nickels are worth more than face value because they contain 35% silver, but there is no single price that fits every coin. Their value usually falls into two categories: bullion value, which tracks the silver in the coin, and collector value, which depends on rarity, condition, and demand.

Bullion Value vs. Collector Value

For most circulated war nickels, the starting point is bullion value. That is simply the market value of the silver content, and it rises or falls with the spot price of silver.

Collector value is different. A silver nickel can be worth more than its melt value if it has a better date, a scarcer mint issue, stronger eye appeal, or a higher grade. This is where two coins with the same silver content can sell for very different amounts.

What Makes One Worth More

Condition is one of the biggest factors. A worn wartime nickel may trade close to its silver value, while a sharply struck uncirculated example can command a noticeably higher premium.

Collectors also pay more for coins with stronger details, attractive surfaces, and better overall preservation. If a coin has a scarcer date-and-mint combination, a desirable variety, or standout quality for the grade, its collector value can move well beyond basic silver content.

Common Mistakes People Make

There are several common mistakes people make with war nickels. The biggest is misidentifying the nickels by ignoring the large mint marks above Monticello. That can be a costly mistake because the reverse mint mark is one of the main ways to identify a silver wartime issue.

Another common mistake is one we've addressed previously: many people believe that all 1942 nickels contain silver. In reality, most nickels minted in 1942 had the standard nickel and copper alloy.

The final mistake that many collectors make is cleaning the coin. Using cleaning products on your nickel can wear away distinguishing factors, leave scratches, and bring down the coin's grade. In other words, cleaning it can damage the coin's value.

Can Nickels Be Counterfeit?

Unfortunately, valuable coins can be counterfeited, and that includes silver nickels. Counterfeiters generally target coins with more silver content, but counterfeit silver nickels do exist.

Counterfeiters produce fakes using base metals, inaccurate weights, or plated copper.

If you want extra confirmation at home, start with the reverse design and mint mark rather than color alone. The large P, D, or S above Monticello remains the fastest and most reliable first screen.

If you are unsure about authenticity, the safest next step is to have the coin examined by a reputable coin dealer or a third-party grading service such as https://www.ngccoin.com/";>NGC or https://www.pcgs.com/";>PCGS. These services can help authenticate the coin and determine whether it appears genuine.

How to Check a Roll or Jar of Nickels Fast

You do not need a scale, loupe, or price guide to do a quick first pass through old nickels. In most cases, you can separate likely silver nickels in just a few minutes by focusing on the date and the reverse mint mark.

First, pull out every nickel dated 1942 through 1945. Those are the only silver nickel years, though only some 1942 nickels contain silver.

Next, flip each coin over and look above Monticello for a large P, D, or S mint mark. That oversized reverse mint mark is the fastest way to identify a likely silver war nickel.

After that, separate cleaner, sharper examples from heavily worn coins. Better-preserved pieces may carry stronger collector premiums.

Frequently Asked Questions About Silver Nickel Years

What years were nickels made in silver?

Silver nickel years ran from 1942 to 1945. Congress included silver in the composition to replace nickel, which the US needed for military purposes.

Are all 1942 nickels silver?

No. Nickels did not shift to their silver alloy composition until October 1942. Prior to that, nickels continued to have a 25% nickel composition.

How much silver is in a war nickel?

War nickels have a composition of 35% silver, 9% manganese, and 56% copper. Each coin contains 0.05626 troy ounces of pure silver.

Are 1943 nickels silver?

Yes, these nickels have the standard war nickel silver content. This was the first year that all nickels were issued with silver.

Are silver nickels worth more than face value?

Yes, silver nickels are usually worth more than five cents because they contain 35% silver. Their actual value depends on silver prices, condition, and whether the coin has any collector premium.

How do I tell if my nickel is a war nickel?

Check the date first: war nickels were made from 1942 through 1945, though only some 1942 nickels contain silver. Then flip the coin over and look for a large P, D, or S mint mark above Monticello, which is the easiest way to identify a silver wartime issue.

Final Note About Silver Nickel Years

Silver nickel years ran from 1942 through 1945, but only some 1942 nickels contain silver. If you remember that one exception and look for the large mint mark above Monticello, you can identify most war nickels quickly and confidently.

Key Price Targets on Silver | Gold & Silver Market Infrastructure Problems Brewing

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up, don’t miss another amazing interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial, a renowned commodities trader with over 40 years of experience. Greg weighs in on what it will take for gold and silver to really get moving up again, what he is looking for as a key level on silver on the upside and also shares his views on when, if ever, the stock market may roll over.

Greg also keys in the lack of participation in the labor market, shares some truly mind-boggling stats about that, and then tells us how the war with Iran all but cements the likelihood of stagflation gripping the economy, and what that means for precious metals, the dollar, oil and the financial markets as a whole.

So, be sure to stick around for Mike Maharrey’s conversation with one of our very favorite guests, the wonderful Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update. And if you enjoy this material, please do us a favor and like and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.

At yesterday's U.S. House Agriculture Committee oversight hearing, Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig pledged to assist efforts of members of Congress who recently introduced the SILVER Act.

This bill, introduced by Rep. Russ Fulcher of Idaho and Rep. Mark Harris of North Carolina, seeks to address longstanding geographic limitations which have blocked out most of the nation from the public markets for gold and silver.

Under current exchange practices, precious metals storage facilities are confined to the Greater New York City area, creating what lawmakers and industry participants like Money Metals describe as a concentration risk with negative implications for market stability, national security, liquidity, and investor access.

Here's an exchange on the topic at yesterday's hearing on Capitol Hill...

Rep. Mark Harris said: “Mr. Chairman, I was concerned to learn that the only approved metals depositories used for deliveries on gold and silver futures contracts are heavily concentrated in the single geographic region around New York City.

“And this level of geographic concentration is troubling to me from a point of national security, market efficiency, and operational resiliency standpoint, which is why I chose to be an original co-sponsor of the SILVER Act that seeks to correct this issue. After all, we've seen firsthand, whether through terrorist attacks like 9/11, extreme weather events like Hurricane Sandy, the New York region is not immune to disruption.

“And so concentrating critical financial infrastructure in a single region like New York does tend to create potential risk and vulnerabilities that we just wouldn't accept in other sectors, especially one that is so crucial to our financial system.

“So with that and our national security, this is why I believe geographic diversity is an important component of operational resilience and risk management. Mr. Chairman, let me ask you, while it made sense 100 years ago for these depositories to be located in the greater New York area, why in our modern age are they still centralized in a single location where they're susceptible to these kinds of events, terrorist attacks, and foreign threats that I just mentioned?”

Chairman Michael Selig: “Well, Congressman, as a regulator of our commodity derivatives markets, it's absolutely critical that we have deliverable supply available as it's possible to take our futures contracts to delivery. And to the extent there's concentration risk, that's certainly something that we'd evaluate as a regulator in ensuring that our contracts have integrity and that our markets are well functioning. So we applaud your leadership on this issue, and we’d be happy to work with your office on it.”

Congressman Harris: “So are you willing to study whether the current concentration of precious metals depositories in a single geographic area does pose a systemic risk to market stability and national security?”

Chairman Selig: “Congressman, we'd certainly work together with your office to better understand the risks caused by this concentration.”

Congressman Harris: “Super. Well, these markets really were designed to help participants manage and mitigate risk, so it stands to reason that we should also ensure the market structure itself is resilient and capable of mitigating its own risk.”

That was Congressman Mark Harris of North Carolina questioning CFTC Chairman Selig.

In other news, consumer spending is “under strain” according to a recent New York Times report. That’s bad news for an economy that depends on people buying stuff.

We see this consumer strain reflected in the slowing growth of consumer debt.

Consumer spending is the engine that drives the U.S. economy, making up about two-thirds of American economic output. As the Times put it, “The enduring strength of consumer spending… has been the main reason that the United States has evaded a recession through successive drubbings over five years: roaring inflation, a rapid run-up in interest rates and a barrage of tariffs.”

The dirty little secret is that “enduring strength” was courtesy of Visa, Mastercard, Discover, and Amex. And the problem with running an economy on credit cards is a pesky thing called a limit. And it appears Americans are getting close to that line.

Showered with stimulus while having no place to go and little to do during the pandemic lockdowns, Americans saved money and paid down their credit card balances. But as post-pandemic price inflation rocked the economy, they blew through their savings and turned to credit cards to make ends meet.

By the end of 2020, revolving debt, primarily reflecting credit card balances, had dropped below $1 trillion to $979 billion. Today, outstanding revolving debt stands at $1.33 trillion.

However, debt growth has slowed to a crawl over the last year or so.

After several months of slowing credit growth, December was an anomaly, as Americans put Christmas on their credit cards. Revolving debt spiked by 7.4 percent that month. But it slowed again in January, charting a tepid 2.3 percent gain. Revolving credit slowed even further in February, growing by just 0.6 percent, according to https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/?utm_source=chatgpt.com&;amp;tblci=GiCB9a4pBBlehdsJSAXBSvtzY7kC2AKY69BgUiVdqNpQmSDKuWUo-sCAu_nVmNN8MK67Pg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the most recent data released by the Federal Reserve.

Looking at the broader trend, the growth of revolving credit has slowed markedly over the last year.

Meanwhile, the personal savings rate is at the lowest level since 2008.

Americans have run up a significant amount of debt in just a few years. They currently owe $5.12 trillion.

It’s clear that Americans are struggling under the pile of debt. Meanwhile, consumer debt is just one factor contributing to the massive https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/12/the-debt-black-hole-004473";>Debt Black Hole dominating the global economy.

And even if consumers still have some borrowing power, an economy run on Visa and Mastercard simply isn't sustainable. When Americans finally hit their credit limit, it will have major implications for economic growth.

Well before we get to this week’s fantastic interview with Greg Weldon, let’s take a look at the weekly market action here. And with today’s latest news coming out of the Middle East, indicating the Straits of Hormuz is now open again upon the announcement of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, precious metals and stocks are both ripping higher with oil selling off hard on this news.

Gold is up about $120 or 2.5% now on the week thanks to a nice advance today and checks in at $4,881 an ounce.

Silver is up more than $6.50 an ounce, with nearly 2/3 of that move coming here today. The white metal currently trades at $83.14 an ounce as of this Friday morning recording. If this news of the potential end of the conflict in Iran sticks, this could be exactly what silver needs to continue its march higher after a 2+ month long consolidation period.

As for the PGMs, platinum checks in at $2,133 an ounce, up 3.6% since last Friday’s close. And similarly, palladium is up 3.8% to check in at $1,597.

Well now, without further delay, and for much more on what may be ahead here for metals moving forward, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm pleased to be joined once again by my good friend Greg Weldon. Greg is a veteran analyst who has spent years, as he put it, grinding it out in the trenches. And he's a frequent guest on the show and it's always good to talk to him. How you doing, Greg?

Greg Weldon: I'm doing great. Great. Good to be back.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, absolutely. Well, I was looking back. The last time we spoke was actually in January, so it's been a little bit while. It seems like it wasn't that long ago, but I guess it has been. But since then, we've had a pretty significant correction in gold and silver prices. And then we also have this crazy war with Iran that keeps going on and on and on. And I want to start kind of there. The war has created all kinds of volatility in the markets and we basically had gold and silver kind of range bound over the last few weeks between gold $4,500 and $5,000, and then silver's kind of running between $70 and $80. And I'm curious, just the first question is, are you surprised at all by the way medals have behaved as this war has kind of unfolded?

Greg Weldon: No, I'm really not. Frankly, I said before the war that if we did attack Iran and this turned into something that was more than a one-off shot, that the dollar would probably rally and that would hurt metals because they were primed for correction, technically speaking anyway. What really does surprise me is that it was January since we last spoke, and it feels like we've had a whole year of trading between now and January. I mean, the first quarter was like five different quarters because I mean, we had huge profits and then gave a good percentage of back. Then we had huge profits and gave a good percentage of them back. There were huge profits. And luckily, I think just on a side-note, I think people that do this regularly, either for themselves or professionally, will tell you that the hardest single thing to do is take big profits, deciding where to get out of a profitable trade. And you can't win if you have too high an expectation because you're never going to get out to peak. You're going to give some back whether you get out too early and the market runs to a higher high or whether you wait too long to get out and then the market gives a lot back and you get out on the correction.

So, what I have found, and this again is a side-note, but it leads to the bigger answer, is that over 42 years of doing this and seeing this movie so many times, and the one thing that doesn't change while everything else changes, information, the markets, technology, trading on the computer in milliseconds versus phones into the floor where I used to work, is human behavior. It never changes. And you're talking hope, faith, and fear. It's cliche, but it's true. And it really, I think becoming a good trader is very much in the same kind of psychological modality of becoming a good parent. It's like a war with yourself and to the degree to recognizing yourself, recognize your flaws, and then trying to correct them in trading and trying to correct them in your children or whatever. So, it's one of the hardest things to do. And I think that instincts, seeing this before, understanding how the markets work, seeing how people do get out of these kinds of big monster moves, spike-like moves, helped me exit these positions very well towards the end of the quarter.

And we booked very large profits. A lot of the people was their best quarter I hear. Certainly from your monetary standpoint, it was our best quarter. But moving forward, I would say that yes, I was not surprised by the decline in the medals. We got out very well. And it's funny because what I just said applies, I got out 98 and a little bit higher, and then when it went to like 115 or whatever the high was and silver, I was pissed that we got out in 98. And then when it was 75 in two days, I was like, "Oh yeah, we got out in 98." So this is a psychological war you go through with yourself. But having said that, it's the dollar. And the dollar was right on the precipice, right on the long-term trend line. It goes back to the 2011 low, which is part of a double bottom from 2008, which is a major bottom from the 1985 high that linked to the plaza accord.

It is a secular bear market. The wave counts, the Fibonacci numbers, the math and the geometry are so specific and precise, you can't draw it any better if you were making a textbook and trying to come up with charts to illustrate your points. So when you have an ABC correction in gold, you now have an ABC correction in silver. If you remember, I think I said with you that if you've got silver below $65, if the last time we talked was January, then it wasn't you. But somebody like when silver started coming off, I said, "If you get this below 65, it's what I call a back the truck up moment where you back up the pickup truck or the front back loader, whatever, the dump truck and put as much better out as the tires will carry." And I also said, so I was right on that one, but I was wrong when I said, "I don't think you get below 65." And you did.

And that was the double bottom, that was the sea wave bottom, that was the Fibonacci bottom. And now, the dollar on the precipice of a major breakdown saved by the war, which is why I said this thing could rally. It's pretty short market. People were longer the currencies, and that's the way it played out. This was a position move, not a based on the war, not an anti-flight of safety. This was really a technical move involving gold and silver. And it was one of these things where all asset prices could get whacked if oil goes up and you have a total demand side collapse because of higher oil prices, which is still very possible. But I think from here, and I said last week, the second you think that deceased fire might actually be real, at least sustained for some period of time, we're selling dollars and we're looking for the renewed breakout and the next bull leg in gold and silver.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah. It's interesting. I really appreciate the fact that you brought up the psychological aspect of it because I think everybody struggles with that. I certainly do. And I ended up selling some of my silver both because I wanted to book the profit and also because I needed to deal with some tax issues. But it's one of those things that's like, I got out, I made good money because I was in some of my silver positions. I got in like 12 bucks. But then the day after I sold, it went up three or four dollars. And so then like you said, you're kicking yourself.

Greg Weldon: I think that's probably might even be the same day. It was like a $4 the next day. We're like, crap.

Mike Maharrey: Exactly. But you're right, you do. It's a discipline thing, isn't it? You kind of have to stay focused on the big picture, especially when you have all these crazy headlines. Trump can go on Truth Social and say something and then the market's whipsaw and it's pretty crazy. Well, he's trying to walk the tightrope, the political tightrope across Niagara Falls, like what was that guy, Lequalenda or whoever he was. I mean, Trump is trying to take out Iran, but not allow this to lose the midterm elections for the Republicans. And this is a fine line, man. And he tilted a little too far the other one way. He kind of brought himself back. I mean, honestly, when it comes to this, I really wish ... I mean, we know Trump from his first term, we know Trump, and I thought Trump would win in 2016, months before it was ... He was only like four or 5% support at the time. But I also say he's going to have problems. He's a CEO. He's not a politician. He is not a diplomat. He is not diplomatic in any way, shape or form. He's used to telling people what to do, and if they don't do it, he fires them.

So, we knew he was going to be like this. He's kind of a bombastic bully and kind of bravado and this ego that has to be satiated every 10 minutes on social media. If he would stop talking and do his job, he'd be great. He'd be great. It's his own worst enemy and his mouth is the biggest problem. If he would just not say some of the things he has to say, which is pure ego, it would just be a smoother sailing in some of these things. And now, I mean, frankly, I think he needed an off ramp. And this is why I think this would be a real ceasefire because he can't allow this to move into the summer, into May, June with November elections lurking and Democrats using outrageous rhetoric to bash him. It's really sad to see the division. But we said this too, and you know this, Mike, I mean, we talked about the polarization, the physics on the planet and how each end of the spectrum is going to resonate more with more volatility and everything would be polarized to the max.

And man, there's nowhere else you see this than weather and politics and human behavior. And animal behavior, to be honest with you too.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. So what do you think is going to take? What dynamics need to kind of be in place to break out of the kind of rangebound place we're in with precious metals right now?

Greg Weldon: I think it's coming. It's the dollar. It is 100% the dollar. And I think the dollar is such big picture stuff that it transcends the war. It goes well beyond the war. I think that's also why you saw some of the downside action in the dollar even when the news was maybe the ceasefire won't hold. And that to me really caught my eye. When you see kind of a break in the patterns of correlations, and that was a big one. So one of the things we've done is alienate NATO, alienate the UK. We've already alienated Canada on trade. We alienated Spain and Italy. And now Spain and Italy are meeting with Xi. All right. Xi met with the UAE. Xi wants to be, and he said this, he goes, "We have a world in chaos and moral decay." Those were his words, basically talking about the US and the degree to which moral decay is aimed at Trump.

And some of the things he does and some of the things he says is fodder and fuel for these kinds of comments, right? But we know Xi, we know the history. I've talked about this so much in the last six, seven years, since 2018 when the Chinese opened the Shanghai crude oil futures. It was the beginning of the end for the petro dollar and for the dollar. So, now we've alienated all our allies too. I mean, come on, man. And we're forcing the UK and Canada to make trade deals with China. So to me, this is where the dollar gets really sketchy. If you recall, my January, beginning of the year thing was the biggest trade of the year is going to be the Chinese renminbi and the decline the dollar and being long currencies that are commodity and resource exporting currencies that have links to China, like the African Iran, the Brazilian reality, even the Mexican Peso.

And these are the currencies that are making waves right now, the Australian dollar would be another one. And to the extent that now you also have, and I think the next biggest story that nobody's talking about, which shocks the hell out of me, is that the opposition party leader in Taiwan, who is the party that is the opposition now in Taiwan, is the party that ruled China when it was mainland China from 1912 to 1949 when Mao took over. Now, Aji's father was in the Mao administration, quote unquote, and was killed during an assassination attempt on Mao. So they took Xi when he was six, wisdom away, and he's been indoctrinated in the Maoist manifest destiny vision. This is why Vietnam, because of gas and oil drilling rights, the Philippines, because of fishing, Malaysia and Indonesia and Korea, because of shipping lanes. And all of this, and this is the ... So Taiwan's always been the place where the US and Korea kind of stuck their flag and said, "We're going to defend here." Well, this opposition leader, she became the leader of the opposition party in November.

She spearheaded the blocking of the expansion of the Taiwanese budget deficit to 5% of GDP that would have allowed them to make that huge purchase of US weapons and technology that never happened. And no one talks about the fact it didn't happen. All of a sudden it's this huge thing and Trump's talking it up and Xi is like, "No, no, no, don't you dare." And all of a sudden it disappeared. After that was blocked in the couple of weeks since, the opposition leader name is Cheng. She has educated Beasley, Temple Law School, Cambridge, PhD and doctorate degrees. She's a rockstar and she once called the Chinese communist tyranny regime, right? So she is now asked to sit down with Xi and got a sit down with Xi. And I'm going to read you what she said two weeks ago before the sit down with Xi.

And this is her; I'll quote her. "Could it be that the United States has treated Taiwan as a chess piece upon to strategically provoke the Chinese Communist Party? I want all Taiwanese people to be able to proudly and confidently say, ‘I am Chinese.’ At least 90% of Taiwan's culture, history and bloodline are Chinese. We speak Chinese. We write Chinese characters. We eat Chinese food. We worship Chinese gods. Taiwan and the mainland should join forces to reach new heights in human civilization. I mean, that's epic commentary and you know this is going to feed right into Xi's manifest destiny view and China taken down Taiwan without shot firing shot. The US crawls away with their tail between their legs. That's a big deal to me. And this strengthens the renminbi. All the other things around the weather and commodities, and again, since 2018, a world war for commodities and resources, that side of the world versus this side of the world.

And we blew it by not bringing in Canada and Mexico and even Brazil and Argentina, Peru. When the trade deal started, we should have brought them in first, had a unified hemisphere and then approached China and all the others. We didn't do that. We went after everybody like a rabbit dog. It was really not well planned, I didn't think.

And we're paying the price for that now. The dollar is the price for that, and that's the biggest thing. And I think that that's the next big move. And I think once you get gold, I mean, 48, 41 is kind of a trigger for me. Silver ... What is my silver? Let me look. I wrote these down yesterday. We actually bought silver two days ago. You really got to get through $92, but I'm not waiting until $92. The risk will be way too much. So I think you can buy it here and kind of risk somewhere just under $70. And I think that's a good place. So dollar down, gold and silver up, and I think it's imminent.

Mike Maharrey: That's really interesting with China. And I did not know that. That's one of those things that-

Greg Weldon: Because no one's talking about it. You don't see it on the news anywhere, man. I mean, I had to go ... I read some of the couple of Asian papers. It's great sources of information.

Mike Maharrey: So, let's talk about stock market in a second. It seems kind of incredible, right? With everything that's going on, we have both the down, the S&Ps on the verge of record highs again. And this actually comes from Mike Gleason. He asked this. Is it possible that stocks are just going to remain elevated forever?

Greg Weldon: The Gleasons always come up with the best questions.

Mike Maharrey: I know they do.

Greg Weldon: I mean, next to you, of course. So wow. I mean, that's a rhetorical question and the answer is no, even though the answer certainly appears to be yes.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It feels like it sometimes, doesn't it?

Greg Weldon: The disconnect in my mind has never been bigger. Again, talk about seeing this movie before. And we call the 87 Crash to ... These are dates ... 1987 and 2008 were the biggest years of my career money-wise. Why? Because there were crashes and why? Because they were easy to see coming because of the disconnect. The disconnect here is that AI is the economy and the consumer doesn't matter. Or you get all these people on financial television, and of course they talk their book because they're all selling bonds or an ETF or stocks. I mean, come on, let's be real. They don't really have people that are going to tell it like it is because their ratings go with stock markets. So everyone has a vested interest to see a stock market go up in perpetuity. So from that perspective, the answer to the mics is yes, absolutely.

They will always go up. And frankly, that probably is kind of the answer because dollar down in a new bear market will be bullish for stocks. And I think stocks will rally from here on that, but then the reality check of where the consumer is who was already suffering big time, and I'm going to give you some stats right here if we got time on the consumer as to why the disconnect is so massively wide right now and why ultimately, while stocks are rallying when the dollar's declining with gold and silver, with Bitcoin and Ethereum too, by the way, I think crypto's about to break out just like gold and silver. It's a very similar kind of dynamic, different technical look, but it's the same thing. And I like owning both. I think this argument over one or the other is kind of silly.

I mean, there's cases to be made for having a digital. There's a lot of cases to be made for having something in your hand that's fiscal. So I like both, but nonetheless. So, I think the disconnect comes later and that's when the dollar really accelerates to the downside because the capital outflow and oh my God, the economy's crashed and the Fed. And especially if the Fed follows their own projections and where the market is now pricing 100% probability of one rate hike next year, Bloomberg and the Reuters and CNBC, I mean, they're still all talking that one of the headlines last week when the CPI number came out was traders expand bets on rate cuts. And it's just like, wait a minute, all right and I'm going to show you why that might be the right move given the labor market number, which was terrible.

But the inflation number, no way, right? Because the Fed is more tone to inflation. The minister tell us clearly they think the labor market's going to be fine. Their SEP shows no change in the unemployment rate through 2028. I mean, that's about as fantasy land and delusional as it gets that AI is not going to do anything to move the unemployment rate up. They haven't arranged from 4.3 to 4.5. It's been in that range just in the last several months. So it's going nowhere according to the Fed. So, I think the reality check will be that and the lack of final demand, which is problematic, especially if the Fed hikes rates, that'll bring it on faster. And if you get there, then it'll become a bond market problem because you can't have this dynamic where you don't have growth and expect to service the debt.

But let me give you a couple. I want to give you some labor market stats and some CPI stats because the bottom line here, Mike, is stagflation is here. The winner of the war is to solidify concrete stagflation, which I've been expecting really since the middle of last year. You can see it in a lot of places. It's not just even in the US. All right. Let's talk about the unemployment number. All right. So 170,000 increase in jobs, and everyone was all excited about that, right? Well, if you read the Fed minutes from the March meeting, January, February had strikes in several places that kept the employment down and they expected a big rebound in March. They got it. But here's the crux of the matter, all right? You had a decline of 339,000 in the number unemployed, which you would think would be great, but 339,000 people didn't get jobs. :

The payroll increase was only 170, right? Why? Because 339,000 was just a part of the 488,000 people who dropped out of the labor force in March. That's a massive, massive one-month number. Let's take it another step because over the last 12 months, not including deportation, self-deportation, immigration, all this, we're talking about people in the labor force this entire time. 2.4 million people have dropped out, all right? The participation rate is 61.9. The only other time, except the worst time in the pandemic when the global economy was shut down and nobody was working. The last time the US participation rate was below 62% was in 1977.

Mike Maharrey: Wow.

Greg Weldon: So, when you take now the 2.4 million that have dropped out, and then you take the 12 month rolling net change in non-farm payroll growth, all right? So over the last 12 months, you've created 260,000 jobs, but you've lost 2.4 million people. All right? Two things. Number one, when you move below a million in 12 month job growth, every time that's happened seven times in history dating back to 1971, it went into negative territory and you had a recession. 1974, 1979, 1990, 2000, 2008, 2020 and now. But secondly, excuse me. If you take the difference between the dropouts, 2.4 million and the new jobs, 260,000, you're left with 2.14 million people that are no longer counted. If you added that to the 7.2 million unemployed that gets you your 4.3 rate, the unemployment rate would be 5.6.

Do you think the Fed would be so sanguine about the labor market? If the unemployment rate was 5.6 up from 4.3 a year ago? Yeah, dang straight. Not only that, ours worked fell. Our earnings fell. Thus, average earning a weekly take home pay deflated. It fell for the month. And this is the same month. You had the largest single month increase in gasoline prices in history in the CPI, going back to 1967, CPI at 3.3 and weekly average earnings for a 12 month basis fell to 3.5. You had a percent and a half real income six months ago. You got 0.2 now. And you're talking about credit card debt still above personal savings. The real wages only 0.2. Second highest delinquency rates on credit cards except for 2008, subprime auto loans, delinquency rate, the highest ever. And now even the people over 100,000 in income, according to the Fed survey, expect that their income growth will only match inflation.

And people are now expecting to actually cut spending. You almost never see from the Fed surveys. People say they're going to cut spending. You're there now. And I also said, by the way, that if this war is problematic because the last thing you need is another round of inflation. Because you had the whole picture, big inflation, you had exactly what we said it was going to do. You had disinflation. A lot of the food things came down like cocoa and coffee were way up there, came all the way back down, orange juice, lumber even too. And then you'd have higher highs and higher lows and then a breakout to new inflation. We weren't even talking about the war, but the war caused that to happen. But the thing about it, Mike, is this is so much bigger than the war. It's just a cover.

Again, the Fed, being the Wizard of Oz, pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. In service sector, CPI, X energy. So not including any energy, let alone we know what fertilizer is going to be with food and some of these things, but CPI services. Services is still 70% of the economy. Consumers still 70% of the economy. There's your disconnect from the stock market, all right? But in this context, 81 service CPI indexes, I break them down every single month. All right? I can tell you that 32% of them, a third of them, a third of CPI service inflation numbers are above 5% year over year. 26% or 21 out of 81 are above 6% year over year. That's more that is below the 2% target. And fully 65% of these indexes are above three year over year. I mean, so you're not even close to the Fed's target.

Inflation is running away again. The consumer is already strapped and this is a doom and gloom economic scenario that will catch up with the stock market.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I watched the M2 money supply pretty closely and that's kind of my inflation gauge and it's going up at a very rapid rate. And then interestingly…

Greg Weldon: And so is Fed's balance sheet again too, by the way.

Mike Maharrey: I was just going to say that. Yeah, the Fed is increasing its balance sheet, It's not QE though, so it's okay, right?

Greg Weldon: The reserve adjustment dynamic. Yeah, of course.

Mike Maharrey: All right. Well, we're running out of time and I've got like five more questions, but I'll skip those. But I do want to ask you something that just kind of a little fun, personal question. I want you to think back into your youth. If you're like me, that gets harder and harder all the time. But can you remember what your first personal investment in gold and silver was? Was it a physical? Was it an ETF? What was your first exposure to ... And this could even go back to when you were a teenager, if you had a gold coin or a silver coin or something. Yeah,

Greg Weldon: That's a great question. It's because my dad gave me a collection of silver bars that were all from the Bullion banks at the time back in the '70s. And I was a teenager. I was maybe 13 or 14, probably 12, maybe 12 or 13. And I was always a math and science geek, always. I was a huge into the NASA. I made my father wake me up when I was a child to watch the moon walk even though my mother was protesting, my dad woke me up. But yeah, no, and it was one of the close things. And it's unfortunate because it got stolen out of my house in New Jersey at one point never recovered. But yeah, that was my first introduction and the silver bars. And I still have one of them, which is the Bank of Ireland, okay? Luck of the Irish, right?

Because I use it as my card protector when I play in the World Series and poker and the world poker tour. So I still have one of them and that's very cool. But yeah, that was the little Bullion Bank silver bars.

Mike Maharrey: Yeah, that is very cool. It is interesting too because those kind of things as a teenager can really make an impression. I got to do a little object lesson with my daughter the other day because a couple of years ago I gave both of my kids silver rounds, and so I was talking to my daughter, and I was telling her how much that silver round is appreciated since I gave it to her. Her eyes got big because she's not one to really follow financial markets. So that's a neat anecdote. All right. Well, you have a wealth of information available to folks. And so I would like for you to point them to where they can find that.

Greg Weldon: They can find the story that we didn't get to talk about, which is El Nino. Yeah. Weather and water. The lowest level of snow cover in the West US ever, how the runoff and water's going to be low, how the AI data centers are just water mules and how the PHO and PIO water ETFs are doing quite well right now. Water is a big deal that no one's talking about. The sea surface Arctic ice is the lowest ever. Took out the 2012 low. The snow cover in the western part of the US had very warm, even though it was brutal in the east, very warm in the west. And you have the lowest snow cover now taken out to 2015 low. So these are recorded history lows in these things. They're going to affect food crops big time. El Nino coming, they say NOAA says one in four chance the worst El Nino we've ever seen.

You want to talk about inflation, talk about food, talk about the weather, that's a wild card that no one's talking about. And these crops, a lot of them have no margin for error because you got record crops, you also have record demand. You want this kind of information, you can come and just shoot me an email, Greg Weldon, G-R-E-G, W-E-L-D-N-O-N @weldonline. And I'll tell you what we're doing right now. I had another interview last week. We did this, so we'll do this for your people too. Give you the rest of April for free in my daily global macro strategy report. So you can get a better idea of what we do, how I think of things, how deep we go with the data analysis. And of course, we are doing very well in our individually managed accounts in the regulated futures contracts. I'm a series three registered money manager.

So, if you want information on that for accredited investors only, we may not be for you, you may not be for us, but everything is very transparent and above board and the performance has been stellar, frankly, if I don't say so myself. You can get any of that information by either going to the website or weldonline.com or shoot me an email at Gregwelden@weldonline.com. I'll also say just a plug for my producer, the podcast, Money Markets and New Age Investing, I can be found at Weldonlive on X and the podcast is @money_podcast.

Mike Maharrey: Outstanding. And just to reiterate, the breadth of information that you cover is phenomenal. And as people got a little flavor of in this interview, you're keeping up with a lot of things globally that fly under the radar here in the United States that are very important. So folks, you need that information, so avail yourself to it. And Greg, I always appreciate having you on the show. It's always a pleasure. You're one of my favorites, but don't tell anybody else, but I really do appreciate it. And it's always good to talk to you.

Greg Weldon: Well, it's my pleasure. You guys do a great job and the whole money and metals crowd, I mean, it's really good. The Gleasons are fantastic. And I think that for me, when anyone asks me, you guys are the go- to guys.

Mike Maharrey: Well, we appreciate that. And I hope you have a good rest of your week and we'll look forward to having you back on in the near future.

Greg Weldon: Me too, Mike. Take care.

Another fantastic interview with our good friend Greg Weldon, and I hope you enjoyed that lively conversation with one of our very favorite guests. Greg really does have a tremendous handle on these markets, and his track record absolutely speaks for itself.

Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And to check out any of our audio programs, including our second podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo, just visit https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts";>MoneyMetals.com/podcasts or find them wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.

Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with Money Metals Exchange, thanks for listening and have a wonderful weekend everybody.

The Tax Man Is Handing Out Big Refunds This Year; What's Your Plan?

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Have any plans for that big tax refund?

Odds are, you got one. Analysts say around 73 percent of taxpayers will get refunds this year. And they’re getting more back to boot. According to IRS data, the average refund is $3,462. That was up just over 11 percent compared to last year.

You can thank President Trump for that bigger refund. Tax changes passed in the Big Beautiful Bill have boosted refunds, especially for people in service industries who rely on tips.

If you got money back, congrats. But I’m here to throw the cold water of reality in your face.

You still gave the federal government a bunch of money last year.

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In the first place, unless you have a low income, Uncle Sam didn’t give all your money back. In the second place, even if you are in the bottom 50 percent of taxpayers who don’t have any federal tax liability at all, you’re still paying out the rear via https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/the-inflation-tax-youre-still-paying-for-that-covid-stimulus-004840";>the inflation tax.

The whole withholding/refund system is a clever propaganda tool.

The withholding system was a brilliant move by the government. It’s like anesthesia. It deadens the pain of taxation. Most people have no idea how much money the government takes from them. Their employer siphons it out of their paycheck and sends it to the IRS. And then they get a refund. I think a lot of people view this as a gift from the government. They certainly don’t feel the pain.

Self-employed people and business owners sure do feel it, though. I know this from experience. I don’t get refunds. I write checks. And let me tell you, writing a check every quarter changes your perspective on taxes. If people realized how much the government took from them, I’m pretty sure there would be a tax revolt.

Instead, we have people celebrating because the government gave them back some of the money it essentially borrowed interest-free for a year.

But hey, it’s always nice to have a little extra money in your pocket, even if it was taken out of your pocket in the first place.

What to Do with That Refund?

So, if you got one of those big refunds, what’s the plan?

I was perusing a few articles featuring folks talking about what they plan to do with their little April windfall. Some said they planned to pay off debt. That seems like a good idea, given that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/slowing-consumer-debt-likely-signals-growing-consumer-stress-004842";>Americans are buried under more than $5 trillion in consumer debt. Some of the refund recipients said they anticipate making a big-ticket purchase that they couldn’t afford before. (Probably because the IRS was taking money out of their checks every month.) Some adventuresome folks have vacation plans. And a few people said they intend to save their refund.

I’ve got some very important advice for you savers. Don’t just stick that money in the bank. If you do, you will almost certainly buy less when you get around to spending it.

Never forget that the plan is to devalue your currency by 2 percent every year. They actually devalue it a lot more than that. But https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/05/inflation-is-the-plan-004459";>2 percent inflation is the plan. That may not sound like a lot, but in 5 years, you’ve lost a little more than 10 percent of your purchasing power. And in a decade, every dollar you saved is worth about 80 cents.

There’s one way to avoid the inevitable currency devaluation inherent in our fiat system. Save in real money – gold and silver. https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/05/inflation-is-the-plan-004459";>Money Metals has some specials on both gold and silver to help you stretch those refund dollars as far as possible!

Consider this. Had I gotten a $3,500 refund in 2020, I could have bought 2 ounces of gold. (The average gold price in 2020 was $1,774.) At today’s price, those two ounces of gold would be worth around $9,600. That’s a 174.3 percent return in six years.

Let’s look at it the other way. If I put that money in a high-yield savings account with a 4 percent APY in 2020, I would have about $4,430 today. That’s a nice 26.7 percent return in six years. However, the CPI over that same period is – about 26 percent. So, I gained nothing. (And as we know, the CPI understates inflation. The real price inflation rate is closer to double that.)

On top of that, most bank savings accounts don't pay anywhere near 4 percent. The majority only offer annual yields between ~0.39 percent and 0.62 percent. If you are saving in dollars at the bank, you’re almost certainly losing purchasing power over time.

Hey, Mr. Tax Man! What Are They Doing with All My Money?

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Since we’re on the subject of taxes, I can’t help but note that I’m not a big fan of this system.

I can already hear somebody saying, “But Mike, taxes are the price we pay to live in a civilized society.”

Is it really, though?

I’m just going to throw this out there – maybe taking people’s money, effectively at gunpoint, isn’t really so “civilized.”

Isn’t that kind of like stealing?

Or maybe extortion is a better word.

Whatever label you want to put on it, I wouldn’t call stealing or extortion civilized. In fact, it’s kind of the opposite of civilized, right?

And then they spend billions to bomb people on the other side of the world. Also, not civilized.

I get it. The government has to be paid for somehow. But please stop trying to sell me on the beauty of taxation. I ain't buyin'!

I know; I’m supposed to understand that the government is going to take its ill-gotten gains and make the world a better place. That supposedly justifies the extortion and theft. I should feel good about it!

Well, OK. That sounds good in a political speech, or maybe coming from a civics teacher, but it’s propaganda spin.

And by propaganda spin, I mean utter BS.

Think about it: Given the price tag, we should have reached the pinnacle of civilization by this point.

I think we got hosed.

Here’s the truth: Taxation is the price we pay for an overreaching, unconstitutional government that spends way too much money.

In Federalist #45, James Madison explained that the federal government was intended to be rather small. He wrote, “The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined. Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite.”

We’ve flipped the system on its head. As a result, we hand over a chunk of our income to the IRS, pay an inflation tax, and the federal government is still running https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/14/us-government-spending-addiction-drives-yet-another-big-monthly-deficit-004836";>massive deficits month after month.

If the federal government operated the way Madison said it should, we wouldn’t be in this situation.

But here we are.

So, the tax man cometh – over and over and over again.

Every year, as I’m doing my taxes, I listen to https://youtu.be/Aa615pbe-gE?si=1-CxOFbQcQBfxDSr"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">a song by Reggae artist Lucky Dube. It sums up the situation perfectly.

I pay my gardener to clean up my garden

I pay my doctor to check out da other ting

I pay my lawyer to fight for my rights

And I pay my bodyguard to guard my body

There’s only one man I pay

But I don’t know what I’m paying for

I’m talking about the taxman

I’m talking about the taxman

I’m talking about the taxman

What have you done for me lately?

Mr. Taxman

What have you done for me lately?

Mr. Taxman

What have you done for me lately?

Mr. Taxman

What have you done for me lately?

Mr. Taxman

You take from the rich, take from the poor

You even take from me, can’t understand it now

I pay for the police to, err…I don’t know why

‘Cause if my dollar was good enough

There wouldn’t be so much crime in the streets

They tell me you’re a fat man

And you always take and never give

What have you done for me lately?

Mr. Taxman

Good question. What have you done for me?

I gotta say – not so much.

I mean, sure, we have roads. But have you driven through Ohio lately? It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for taxation.

But what about schools?

Yeah. OK. Go chat with some public school students. Also, not a ringing endorsement.

But hey, I’ve sent billions of dollars to Ukraine to help with all of the civilizing going on over there.

You get the picture.

So, whether you’re writing a check or buying some gold with your refund, give Lucky Dube’s song some thought.

I think you’ll come to a similar conclusion – Mr. Taxman ain’t doing much for us.

CFTC Chairman to Examine National Security Risks from Geographical Concentration of Depositories for Precious Metals

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Chairman Michael Selig to Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC) regarding the SILVER Act (H.R. 8007): “We applaud your leadership on this issue, and we’d be happy to work with your office on it.”

Washington, D.C. (April 16, 2026) — At today’s U.S. House Agriculture Committee oversight hearing, Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig today applauded – and pledged to assist the efforts by – two members of Congress who recently introduced the “System Integrity through Licensed Vault Expansion and Resilience Act” (SILVER Act).

The SILVER Act (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8007/text/ih"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">H.R. 8007): – introduced by Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-ID) and Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC) – seeks to address longstanding geographic limitations on approved depositories for precious metals tied to regulated futures markets.

Under current exchange practices, these storage facilities are largely confined to the Greater New York City area, creating what lawmakers and industry participants describe as a concentration risk with negative implications for market stability, national security, liquidity, and investor access.

Speaking at today’s oversight hearing, Rep. Mark Harris said: “Mr. Chairman, I was concerned to learn that the only approved metals depositories used for deliveries on gold and silver futures contracts are heavily concentrated in the single geographic region around New York City.

“And this level of geographic concentration is troubling to me from a point of national security, market efficiency, and operational resiliency standpoint, which is why I chose to be an original co-sponsor of the https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/lawmakers-introduce-silver-act-risk-193600081.html"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Silver Act that seeks to correct this issue. After all, we've seen firsthand, whether through terrorist attacks like 9/11, extreme weather events like Hurricane Sandy, the New York region is not immune to disruption.

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Rep. Mark Harris (R-NC)

“And so concentrating critical financial infrastructure in a single region like New York does tend to create potential risk and vulnerabilities that we just wouldn't accept in other sectors, especially one that is so crucial to our financial system.

“So with that and our national security, this is why I believe geographic diversity is an important component of operational resilience and risk management. Mr. Chairman, let me ask you, while it made sense 100 years ago for these depositories to be located in the greater New York area, why in our modern age are they still centralized in a single location where they're susceptible to these kinds of events, terrorist attacks, and foreign threats that I just mentioned?”

Chairman Selig: “Well, Congressman, as a regulator of our commodity derivatives markets, it's absolutely critical that we have deliverable supply available as it's possible to take our futures contracts to delivery. And to the extent there's concentration risk, that's certainly something that we'd evaluate as a regulator in ensuring that our contracts have integrity and that our markets are well functioning. So we applaud your leadership on this issue, and we’d be happy to work with your office on it.”

Congressman Harris: “So are you willing to study whether the current concentration of precious metals depositories in a single geographic area does pose a systemic risk to market stability and national security?”

Chairman Selig: “Congressman, we'd certainly work together with your office to better understand the risks caused by this concentration.”

Congressman Harris: “Super. Well, these markets really were designed to help participants manage and mitigate risk, so it stands to reason that we should also ensure the market structure itself is resilient and capable of mitigating its own risk.”

Addressing Concentration Risk and Market Access

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Today’s framework restricts exchange-approved precious metals vaults to within roughly 150 miles of New York City, limiting participation from qualified facilities elsewhere in the country while also undermining overall market liquidity, availability, and participation.

This geographical concentration has raised concerns about vulnerability to disruptive events, including natural disasters, cyber incidents, or security threats that could impact a single region and ripple across global markets.

Supporters of the legislation argue that expanding eligibility to include secure depositories in other regions—particularly in the Western United States, where much of the nation’s mining and refining activity occurs—would improve market resiliency and access. Significant supply and price dislocations across the global precious metals markets over the past year have uncovered vulnerabilities.

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Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-ID)

Enhancing Competition, Liquidity, and Affordability

In addition to risk concerns, proponents say the current system limits competition and drives higher costs for investors. Storage fees at existing exchange-approved facilities are often at the maximum allowable rates, while comparable facilities outside the New York region may offer services at significantly lower costs.

The SILVER Act would direct the CFTC to promote transparency in the depository selection process and encourage broader geographic participation.

The bill does not mandate the approval of specific facilities but aims to ensure a more open and competitive framework.

Industry stakeholders note that expanding the network of approved depositories could increase storage capacity, improve liquidity, and make it easier for investors, producers, and institutions to participate in the market without incurring unnecessary transportation and storage costs.

“Greater access to qualified storage facilities across the country will also enhance efficiency and reduce barriers to entry,” said Stefan Gleason, CEO of https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-gold-storage"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Money Metals Depository, one of the largest commercial gold and silver vaults in North America.

“We’re pleased the CFTC has agreed to work with industry experts and members of Congress to address the risks caused by the current practice of derivative clearing organizations to exclude qualified depositories located throughout the United States from the regulated futures markets.”

Responding to Growing Demand

The introduction of the SILVER Act comes amid rising investor interest in precious metals, driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, resulting in increased demand for hard assets. Policymakers and industry leaders have emphasized the need for infrastructure that can support this growth while maintaining stability in regulated markets.

If enacted, the legislation would mark a significant step toward modernizing the U.S. precious metals market by addressing concentration risks, improving market access, and fostering greater competition.

The SILVER Act is supported by members across the precious metals ecosystem in the U.S., including mints, dealers, manufacturers, banks, depositories, and investors.

Slowing Consumer Debt Likely Signals Growing Consumer Stress

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Consumer spending is “under strain” according to a recent New York Times report. That’s bad news for an economy that depends on people buying stuff.

We see this consumer strain reflected in the slowing growth of consumer debt.

Consumer spending is the engine that drives the U.S. economy, making up about two-thirds of American economic output. As the Times put it, “The enduring strength of consumer spending…has been the main reason that the United States has evaded a recession through successive drubbings over five years: roaring inflation, a rapid run-up in interest rates and a barrage of tariffs.”

By the end of 2020, revolving debt, primarily reflecting credit card balances, had dropped below $1 trillion to $979 billion. Today, outstanding revolving debt stands at $1.33 trillion.

However, debt growth has slowed to a crawl over the last year or so.

After several months of slowing credit growth, December was an anomaly, as Americans put Christmas on their credit cards. Revolving debt spiked by 7.4 percent that month. But it slowed again in January, charting a tepid 2.3 percent gain. Revolving credit slowed even further in February, growing by just 0.6 percent, according to https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/?utm_source=chatgpt.com"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the most recent data released by the Federal Reserve.

Looking at the broader trend, the growth of revolving credit has slowed markedly over the last year.

Meanwhile, the personal savings rate is at the lowest level since 2008.

Americans have run up a significant amount of debt in just a few years. They currently owe $5.12 trillion.

The Federal Reserve consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans, and auto loans, but do not factor in mortgage debt. When you include mortgages, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/05/household-debt-rose-to-a-new-record-high-in-q4-2025-004742";>U.S. households are buried under a record $18.8 trillion in debt.

Non-revolving debt, reflecting outstanding auto loans, student loans, and loans for other big-ticket durable goods, also spiked in December, driven by a combination of Christmas spending and new student loans. And like revolving credit, the pace of growth also crashed in January, returning to the slowing trend we saw most of last year with a modest $3.3 billion increase.

Non-revolving credit rebounded slightly in February, but still only charted a below-average 2.8 percent gain.

The Christmas surge notwithstanding, over the last several months, non-revolving credit has averaged a tepid 2 percent increase rate. Before the pandemic, revolving credit growth averaged 5 percent. It appears consumers are opting not to finance big-ticket items, as more and more of their income is necessary just to pay daily expenses.

Other Signs of Consumer Stress

High levels of debt are stressing many American households, especially those on the lower end of the income scale.

LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) reflects the strain. As a spokesperson put it, “Financial strain has settled into a new normal for American households.”

The CSLI rose 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. It was the third consecutive quarterly increase, pushing the index up 10.4 percent for the year.

The LegalShield Bankruptcy subindex was up 19.9 percent in the second half of 2025, charting a 15.6 percent increase year over year. According to LegalShield, its bankruptcy data has historically served as a leading indicator, preceding actual non-business bankruptcy filings by two quarters with a .95 correlation since 2006.

The Foreclosure subindex was up 15.0 percent year-over-year. According to LegalShield, “The high volume of legal inquiries suggests that homeowners are seeking help to manage rising housing costs.”

Meanwhile, New York Fed data indicate that some households are struggling to keep up with payments on all this debt.

According to the New York Fed, aggregate delinquencies worsened in the fourth quarter. As of the end of 2025, 4.8 percent of all debt was in some stage of delinquency. That was up from 4.5 percent in Q3.

Transitions into early delinquency increased for mortgages and student loans. Transition into delinquency was steady for other debt types.

Transitions into serious delinquency ticked up for credit card balances, mortgages, and student loans while auto loans and HELOC decreased slightly.

Student loan debt has the highest delinquency rate, with 9.6 percent of balances 90+ days overdue. According to the New York Fed, approximately 1 million student loan borrowers who were more than 120 days past due had their loans transferred to the U.S Department of Education’s Default Resolution Group.

Credit card delinquencies are rising, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/08/26/economic-stress-credit-card-delinquencies-are-on-the-rise-even-among-those-with-prime-credit-004294";>even among consumers with strong credit scores. According to VantageScore, there was a 47 percent year-on-year increase in late payments by people in the prime segment in the third quarter of last year.

What Is Fine Gold? Meaning, Purity (999 vs 24k), and Why It Matters - Money Metals

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

What is fine gold? Fine gold refers to a level of gold that is at least 99.9% pure, typically stamped .999 or .9999 fine on bullion coins and bars.

Fine gold has many implications for investors. We’ll discuss all the things investors should know about the product, including:

Purity
Standards
Investment implications

We’ll start with the basics: defining what the term means.

What Is Fine Gold?

In the precious metal market, fine gold refers to the purity of gold. It is the highest level of purity that is possible outside of a lab.

However, there is a spectrum for fine gold. The bare minimum requirement is that fine gold be 99.9% pure, or 999 fine gold. This high purity leaves only 0.1% of other metals. In contrast, 9999 fine gold takes refinement to an even higher level at 99.99% pure gold.

This measurement is known as the millinesimal system. It measures gold in a parts-per-thousand purity system.

Somewhat different from this is the karat system, in which gold is often measured for jewelry. In the jewelry market, 24 karat gold is the rough equivalent of 9999 fine gold.

In the bullion market, gold’s purity is usually stamped on a product. Usually, the obverse or reverse of a gold coin or bar will show:

Weight
Content
Gold purity

These facts certify the gold product as an investment-grade asset. In the US, gold minted coins have legal tender status, though their symbolic face value tends to be far below their intrinsic gold worth.

Understanding How Gold Purity Measurement Systems Relate

The two systems for measuring gold are the:

Karat system
Millesimal system

The karat system measures gold purity in 24 parts, and is the predominant system in North America (note, used outside of North America, you may see this spelled as carat). In contrast, the millesimal system is predominant in Europe and in the bullion market.

The two systems relate directly through conversion. 24 karats corresponds to 1000, or 999/999.9 fineness. Other standard karat measurements are as follows:

18 karat = 75% pure
14 karat = 58.33% pure
22 karat = 91.67% pure

You can convert karat to millesimal and vice versa with a simple equation:

To get millesimal fineness, divide the karat value by 24
To get karats, multiple the purity decimal figure by 24

Purity Mark	Karat Equivalent	Gold Content
.999	24K	99.9% gold
.9999	24K	99.99% gold
.9167	22K	91.67% gold
.750	18K	75% gold

Why Most Bullion is .999 or .9999 Fine

The reason bullion gold tends to be .999 or .9999 fine is because it is typically as pure as gold can get outside of a laboratory. Gold is a naturally soft and malleable metal, so it needs a small alloy of other metals to retain its shape and durability.

It is also easier to price fine gold relative to the gold spot price. Since the spot price measures the value of one troy ounce of gold, getting gold as pure as possible is much easier to track.

For similar reasons, investors prefer high purity metals for their investments. Since gold and other https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation-hedge.asp"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">precious metals hedge against inflation, it is better to have investment products with the highest amount of a precious metal possible.

Fine gold bullion is also the standard for the precious metals market, and for similar reasons. It offers a global standard for investors to trade with.

You may wonder how gold can reach this fineness. The answer lies in how the modern precious metal industry can refine gold.

The Gold Refinement Process

Fine gold production starts off with gold prospecting. Scientists scour the world for areas with a high gold concentration. Once they obtain metal samples, they can analyze the discovered gold content. If the gold is pure enough, mining companies can begin mining for gold ore.

Once a company finds gold ore, they will follow a procedure to refine that ore into gold:

Extract the ore from the rock.
Separate gold from any leaching chemicals.
Pour the solution into a cell and charge it with an electric current. This causes the gold to gather on a product’s negative terminals
Melt the negative terminals at 2,100 degrees Fahrenheit
Add that chemical mixture (or flux) to a molten material to break gold off from the negative terminal metal
Set the flux in molds and send them to refineries
Refineries melt down the gold, add borax and soda ash to the mixture, and separate pure gold from other metals in the compound.

At the end of this process, a laboratory will analyze the gold product to ensure it has the appropriate gold content.

Gold Coins Made From Fine Gold

When many people think of gold, they often think of gold bars. However, fine gold coins also exist. In fact, many of these coins have legal tender status in their respective nations.

The reason for that legal tender status is that these gold coins come from sovereign mints. Several examples exist, including:

Canadian Gold Maple Leaf
American Gold Buffalos
Austrian Gold Philharmonic
Australian Kangaroo

However, sometimes gold coins are not fine gold. One famous example of this https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/american-gold-eagle";>is the American Gold Eagle.

The reason for this is because of durability considerations. As mentioned before, gold is a very soft and malleable material. Adding an alloy of other metals, such as silver or copper, can strengthen coins and prevent deformities.

This durability is also why jewelry makers often use less than fine gold. However, it can also have aesthetic advantages. Combining gold with other metals can produce different colors, including:

White gold
Rose gold
Yellow gold

For investors, it is worth noting that gold that is not fine will not completely https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>match the spot price. It still tracks that price, but will not be worth the same amount as fine gold bullion.

How Fine Gold Is Tested and Verified

Fine gold is tested using several different methods. These include:

Non-destructive X-ray fluorescence (XRF)
Acid scratch test
Fire assay

The XRF test is a quick, non-destructive method that uses X-rays to determine the exact percentage of gold in a gold item, along with other metals present. This test is often used by gold dealers to check for purity.

https://www.gia.edu/bench-tip-use-the-touchstone-method-for-testing-purity-karat-gold#:~:text=the%20close%20button.-,Touchstone%20method,a%20set%20of%20testing%20needles." target="_blank" rel="noopener">The acid test is another way to determine how much gold is in a product. In this approach, a small sample gets scratched onto a testing stone and treated with nitric acid. Genuine 24 karat gold will not dissolve or react to that acid, while lower karat or base metals will react to specific acid strengths.

The final method we’ll discuss is used for high level analysis, typically by refineries. In this process, gold is melted and analyzed. This method is typically used for high-value items to determine exact purity.

There is also a popular at-home test for gold consumers to determine whether you have purchased real gold. Real gold is not magnetic, so if you press a magnet toward your gold and it is drawn to the magnet, it is likely the item does not have high gold purity. This test is far from definitive, though; if you have real concerns about your gold purity, it is best to take it to an assayer.

Why Fine Gold Matters for Investors

We have briefly discussed before that the more gold there is in a product, the closer it tracks the spot price. This fact is crucial for gold investors.

The spot price for gold measures the worth of one troy ounce of gold. The purer your gold commodity, the closer you are to that spot price.

Pure gold, then, is the asset best-suited to hedging against inflation. That’s why most gold bullion is fine gold.

Another reason this matters is for liquidity. Gold bullion products have higher liquidity in the precious metals market, making it easier to cash in your gold assets.

It is worth noting that different gold assets have differing liquidity levels. Gold coins are often more liquid than heavy gold bars, due in large part to their global recognition. These coins come from sovereign mints, often making them more secure investments.

Fine gold is often recognizable; after all, everybody has grown up hearing about how valuable gold is. The problem is, that can also make gold a target for thieves.

Many investors choose to look into specialized storage for their fine gold assets. Generally, there are three methods for storing gold:

A home safe
A bank safety deposit box
A third-party security vault

Each of these three offers differing tradeoffs for security and accessibility. A home safe keeps your gold assets in your possession, but lacks the security that professional storage can provide.

Bank safety deposit boxes offer more security, and are often more local to you than third-party vaults. However, you are limited to the bank’s business hours, and you risk losing your access if the bank undergoes a serious financial crisis. You also have to pay to insure your precious metals assets.

Often, the best balance between secure and cost-effective storage lies in third-party vaults. These vaults insure your gold for you and have incredible security. However, they also offer the least accessibility to your investments.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is .999 gold the same as 24K?

A: Yes, .999 gold is generally considered the equivalent of 24-karat gold because it contains about 99.9% pure gold. However, some 24k gold products may be refined even further to .9999 purity.

Q: Is fine gold considered pure gold?

A: Fine gold refers to gold that is at least 99.9% pure, typically marked as .999 or .9999 fineness. In practical terms, this level of purity is considered pure gold in the bullion market.

Q: What is the difference between .999 and .9999 gold?

A: The difference is the level of purity: .999 gold is 99.9% pure, while .9999 gold is 99.99% pure. In practice, both are considered investment-grade bullion and trade very similarly in the market.

Q: Why are some coins only .9167 fine?

A: Some coins, such as certain bullion coins, are made with a small alloy of metals like copper or silver to increase durability. This results in a purity of .9167 (22-karat gold), which helps the coins resist scratches and wear.

Understanding Fine Gold Before You Buy

The answer to what is fine gold has a fairly straightforward answer. It refers to gold that has at least 99.9% gold purity, qualifying it as a gold bullion investment commodity.

When you decide to invest in gold, it is crucial that you verify its purity, weight, and mint origin. These facts can give you a clear idea as to the quality of your gold investment.

Our inventory has fine gold products from many of the world’s leading mints and refineries. We also offer gold products in several weights, allowing you to make a bulk investment in gold. Search our inventory to get an idea of what gold investments might help your portfolio.

We can also https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-gold-storage";>help you with gold storage. We offer vault storage for our customers to keep their gold investments, helping them keep their gold investments safe.

Take a look at our products to determine if gold is right for your portfolio. If so, start building your gold portfolio today!

The Inflation Tax: You're Still Paying for That Covid Stimulus

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Yesterday was Tax Day. It’s a source of misery for many of us as we write a big check to the IRS. But did you know the IRS isn’t the source of your biggest tax bill? In fact, you don’t even get a bill. You just pay the tax every time you buy something.

No, I’m not talking about the sales tax. I’m referring to the inflation tax.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen. Inflation is a tax.

When the government spends far more than it takes in, it has to borrow money. To support the borrowing, the Federal Reserve runs https://youtu.be/ipaQAgOCJBk?si=vG_mWa6VjHF2cavX"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">quantitative easing operations, buying Treasuries with money created out of thin air. This creates artificial demand for U.S. debt, suppressing interest rates and allowing the government to borrow more than it otherwise could.

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You get goodies, and the government avoids raising taxes.

It’s a win-win, right?

Except you're still paying taxes, you just don’t see it as clearly.

When the Fed creates money out of thin air and injects it into the economy, it drives price inflation.

The COVID Inflation Tax

Remember all those stimmy checks during the pandemic? Uncle Sam handed out some $930 billion in stimulus to individuals with three rounds of stimmy checks in 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by nearly $5 trillion.

You’re still paying for that stimulus today.

The thing about inflation is it’s cumulative. It creeps up gradually – a few tenths of a percent this month, a few tenths of a percent the next. It can almost seem like no big deal, but it adds up.

Since January 2021, price inflation is up between 23.6 percent and 27.1 percent, depending on which metric you choose to use.

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cpi-since-2021.png"; width="500" height="486" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

To put it another way, the government has stolen around a quarter of your purchasing power in just five years.

It’s actually worse than that because every one of these metrics understates inflation.

The https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/15/the-cpi-lie-price-inflation-is-even-worse-than-advertised-002930";>government revised the CPI formula in the 1990s so that it understated the actual rise in prices. Based on the formula used in the 1970s, CPI is closer to double the official numbers. So, if the BLS used the old formula, we’d be looking at CPI closer to 50 percent. And using an honest formula, it would probably be worse than that.

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The good news is your earnings are also impacted by inflation. The bad news is that wage inflation typically lags price inflation, so you are constantly playing catch-up. As consumers wait for their wages to catch up to prices, they’re forced to rely on savings and credit cards.

According to Federal Reserve data, average hourly earnings rose 24.9 percent in that same period. Based on the CPI data, even with that hefty raise, you’re just treading water. And when you consider that the CPI is understating price increases, you’re losing ground fast.

This underscores a couple of realities you should keep in mind.

Nothing the government does for you is free. You and your children are going to pay – either through direct taxation or the inflation tax.

Even in the best of times, you’re paying the inflation tax. Keep in mind that the government’s stated plan is to devalue your money by a little more than 10 percent every five years.

This is why it’s crucial to save in real money. As the inflation tax rises, so does the price of gold and silver. It protects your wealth from the insidious debasement that is part and parcel to this fiat system.

How a Silver Shortage Sparked a Historic Price Rally

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

The silver’s supply deficit finally caught up with it in 2025.

Late last year, the price surged above the $50 resistance that had been in place since the 1980s. The rally continued into the first month of 2026, as the silver price rocketed to over $100 per ounce before correcting and settling in the $80 range.

As Metals Focus explained in its World Silver Survey, “Lower inventories and metal being pulled out of London or tied up in exchange-traded products (ETPs) created explosive conditions for lease rates and prices. Against that backdrop, silver delivered a remarkable year.”

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The speed of the rally was truly astonishing. In fact, silver languished most of the year as gold took the spotlight.

Silver opened 2025 at $28.84 and didn’t crack $40 until September. When the year ended, the price sat at $71.30. At its peak, silver was up 147 percent intra-year. The average price came in at $40, a 42 percent increase.

While gold hogged the spotlight through most of the year, silver stole the show at the end. According to Metals Focus, several factors converged to drive the rally.

“Exceptionally strong physical demand, tight inventories, and robust industrial metal prices, copper in particular, fueled silver’s outperformance of gold during that period. This trend eventually became self-fulfilling, as investors that had previously favored gold shifted their attention to the white metal.”

We can see the trajectory of the silver rally in the movement of https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/03/25/what-is-the-gold-silver-ratio-why-should-we-pay-attention-to-it-003075";>the gold-silver ratio. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, given the current spot price of both metals.

In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40:1 and 60:1. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the gold-silver ratio was historically high, averaging 91:1. The ratio peaked in April at 107:1. By the end of the year, the ratio had plunged to 61:1 before falling into the sub-50s early this year. This indicates a significant correction in the silver price.

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A Growing Silver Shortage

Silver took off in October as https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/20/london-india-and-the-anatomy-of-a-silver-squeeze-004422";>a silver squeeze gripped the market.

A convergence of factors from market dynamics to logistical problems led to an unprecedented silver shortage. While the market dynamics that got us here might be difficult to untangle, the situation is about as basic as it gets.

There’s not enough silver.

The silver market recorded a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2026.

Last year, demand outstripped supply by 40.2 million ounces (1,252 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.

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Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.

Before this string of successive market deficits, there was a cumulative above-ground stock rise of 243 million ounces between 2010 and 2020. Taken together, there has been a stock rundown of around 473 million ounces in the last 15 years.

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A Silver Squeeze

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When silver demand outstrips mining and recycling output, silver users must tap into aboveground stocks. That generally means rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to give it up.

As Metals Focus explained, that’s exactly what happened last fall.

“Against this backdrop, shifts in inventories into CME vaults, rising ETP holdings, and a spike in physical demand created an unprecedented liquidity squeeze in October.”

The stage was set for a silver squeeze in the spring of 2025 as Trump began levying tariffs. Worries that silver would get caught up in the tariff net drove a massive movement of silver from London to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) vaults in New York.

As silver streamed into the U.S., CME silver holdings eclipsed the record set during the pandemic at 531 million ounces.

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Much of the silver remaining in London vaults was already committed to ETFs. That left very little “free float” metal to provide liquidity to the London market. According to Metals Focus, the share of London silver stocks, not allocated to ETPs, fell to just 17 percent by the end of September 2025.

A surge in Indian silver demand last fall was the pin that popped the bubble. As Indian consumers began to pivot toward silver, the price premium began to rise. Typically, Indian prices run a few cents higher than global averages, but that spread began to grow. It was slow at first – from a few cents to 50 cents. And then to a dollar. And then above a dollar. At the peak of the squeeze, premiums rose as high as $5 an ounce.

Initially, Indian buyers were primarily sourcing silver from Hong Kong, but they reportedly shifted more toward London during the Chinese Golden Week Holiday in the first week of October.

But London vaults were already tapped out.

As the squeeze intensified, silver lease rates exceeded 200 percent, reflecting the strain in the market.

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Metal has flowed back into London vaults, easing the strain for the time being. However, the fundamental dynamic has not changed. There is still a shortage of metal. And unlike fiat currency, governments can’t just print silver.

Metals Focus calls this “the crucial point.”

“The market has clearly entered an era of reduced stocks. Tightness will not be constant, but liquidity will generally be thinner, lease rates more volatile and price moves likely to be larger than investors have grown used to. With deficits set to remain in place, however, it is unlikely that we will see a return to the previous status quo any time soon.”

Fort Knox Gold Scandal?

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 EST

Mike Maharrey’s latest Money Metals Midweek Memo zeroed in on two big themes with major implications for sound money investors.

First, much of the gold supposedly backing America’s financial credibility may be lower-quality metal that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/09/ft-knox-full-of-impure-gold-unfit-for-international-transactions-as-far-as-we-know-004824";>does not meet modern international standards.

Second, the silver market could be heading into even tighter supply conditions as a new disruption tied to China threatens copper production and, by extension, silver output.

The result was an episode that tied together history, monetary policy, and today’s metals markets in a way that made the stakes feel immediate.

Maharrey’s central argument was simple.

Physical metal still matters, and the flaws in the fiat system become easier to see when you look closely at what the United States actually holds in reserve and what is happening in global silver supply chains.

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Most of Fort Knox Gold May Be “Non-Standard”

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Maharrey opened with a colorful analogy, comparing the difference between beer league hockey and the NHL to the difference between lower-purity gold and true investment-grade metal. Gold may be gold, but not all gold is created equal when it comes to reserve quality.

He explained that https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/09/ft-knox-full-of-impure-gold-unfit-for-international-transactions-as-far-as-we-know-004824";>24-karat gold is essentially pure, generally .990 fine or higher in the United States. By contrast, 22-karat gold is 91.6% pure, and 14-karat gold is only 58.3% gold.

That matters because while lower-purity gold may work well in jewelry, reserve gold intended for international settlements is expected to meet much stricter standards.

According to Maharrey, that is where the United States has a problem.

Officially, U.S. gold reserves total 8,133.5 metric tons, or about 261.5 million troy ounces, the largest national gold stockpile in the world. About 147.3 million ounces are reportedly stored at Fort Knox, with the rest held at the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository in New York, and the Federal Reserve vault in New York City.

But much of that metal, especially at Fort Knox, reportedly consists of non-standard bars that would not qualify for use in modern international settlements.

Maharrey noted that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) requires a minimum fineness of .995 for acceptable good-delivery bars, with the global market increasingly favoring .999 fine gold.

Based on documents released during a 2011 House Committee on Financial Services hearing, Maharrey said only about 17% of the gold bars at Fort Knox meet that modern standard. He cited a breakdown showing that 64% of the bars fall between .899 and .901 fineness, 2% fall between .9011 and .9154, 17% fall between .9155 and .917, and only the final 17% are .995 or higher.

That would put the average fineness of U.S. gold reserves at .9167, or 91.67% pure. In other words, much of America’s reserve gold is closer to 22-karat gold than the high-purity bullion expected in today’s global market. Maharrey’s point was not that the gold is fake, but that much of it may be illiquid or impractical in an international settlement context without refining.

The Fort Knox Audit Problem

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The bigger issue, Maharrey argued, is that Americans still do not really know what is in Fort Knox with any confidence. He stressed that U.S. gold holdings have not been properly audited since at least the 1970s.

He dismissed the famous 1974 Fort Knox event as a media spectacle, not a real audit. During that exercise, the Treasury opened only 1 of the depository’s 15 vault compartments for politicians and reporters. Maharrey pointed out that none of the bars shown were matched to serial numbers, assayed for purity, or verified against a full inventory.

He also criticized subsequent Treasury reviews for failing to meet normal accounting standards. In his telling, there is no complete public record of comprehensive assaying, weighing, or transactional history. That last point is critical because even if the gold is physically present, the public still would not know whether some of it has been leased, loaned, or otherwise encumbered.

Maharrey mentioned legislation introduced by Senator Mike Lee, along with a House companion bill from Representative Thomas Massie, that would https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3795/text"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">require a full audit of U.S. gold reserves and an accounting of any transactions involving that gold. The measure would also require non-standard bars to be refined so they meet modern international standards.

Why the U.S. Holds Lower-Purity Gold

Maharrey traced the problem back to President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Executive Order 6102, signed on April 5, 1933. That order effectively made most private gold ownership illegal and pushed gold out of private hands and into government control.

Americans who turned in their gold were paid $20.67 per ounce. But Maharrey noted that Roosevelt then revalued gold to $35 per ounce six months later, effectively devaluing the dollar by about 40%.

In his view, this was a pivotal step in allowing the government to expand the money supply beyond what the old gold standard had permitted.

Much of the gold taken in during that period came in the form of circulating U.S. gold coins, which were typically 90% pure. Once private ownership and redemption were curtailed, the government melted those coins into bars.

According to Maharrey, that is why so much of the gold now associated with Fort Knox is lower-purity “coin gold” rather than high-grade bullion.

That history matters because it shows how America’s reserve gold became a relic of the old monetary order. Maharrey argued that the metal composition inside Fort Knox reflects the transition from a gold-backed system, where gold flowed in and out of the banking system, to a fiat system where dollars can be created without hard restraint.

China’s Sulfuric Acid Move Could Hit Silver Supply

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In the second half of the episode, Maharrey turned to silver and flagged a development he believes could worsen an already tight market. Chinese officials have reportedly indicated they will https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/11/chinese-sulfuric-acid-export-ban-could-exacerbate-physical-silver-shortage-004833";>stop exporting sulfuric acid beginning in May, and the restriction could last through the rest of 2026.

That matters because sulfuric acid is a key input in copper mining. If copper production slows because miners cannot get enough sulfuric acid or face sharply higher costs, silver output could suffer as well. Maharrey emphasized that about 70% of the annual silver mine supply comes as a byproduct of copper production.

He connected the sulfuric acid issue to broader geopolitical disruption involving Iran and shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Middle East produces about one-third of the world’s sulfur, and Maharrey said the resulting squeeze has already sent sulfuric acid prices surging.

In Chile, the world’s top copper producer, prices have reportedly jumped 44% in the past month. Chile also buys about 1 million tons of sulfuric acid from China each year.

Silver Deficits Keep Building

Maharrey argued that this new supply threat is landing at exactly the wrong time. Silver demand is already forecast to https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/09/silver-demand-expected-to-outstrip-supply-and-other-silver-news-004749";>outstrip supply for a sixth straight year in 2026, driven in part by a projected 20% increase in physical investment demand.

Using preliminary Silver Institute data, he said the market ran a deficit of about 95 million ounces last year, marking the fifth consecutive annual shortfall. Over five years, cumulative deficits are on track to exceed 800 million ounces, roughly equal to an entire year of global mining output.

He also pointed to falling inventories across major silver hubs. London Bullion Market Association vault holdings are down about 40% over the last five years, COMEX registered inventories in the United States are down nearly 70%, and Shanghai inventories have fallen to their lowest level in a decade.

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That does not mean the world is out of silver, but it does mean above-ground supplies are being drawn down. Maharrey’s argument was that tighter physical availability eventually forces higher prices as the market tries to draw metal out of private hands.

Why the Episode Matters

At its core, this episode argued that physical precious metals still https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/14/mainstream-economists-vs-gold-who-is-winning-the-fight-004835";>expose the weaknesses of fiat money. America may claim the largest gold reserves in the world, but much of that gold may be lower-quality, under-audited, and not ready for modern international use. At the same time, silver faces another possible supply shock in a market already defined by repeated deficits and shrinking inventories.

That combination made Maharrey’s message especially clear. You can print dollars, but you cannot print gold or silver. And when the financial system grows more fragile, that difference starts to matter very quickly.