In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a horse race between competing explanations and find that U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed. Non-U.S. countries have generous benefits for the non-employed, but this generosity has not changed as much over time as in the United States, and public health coverage does not depend on employment status or income levels. For these countries, the rise of labor supply is generally accounted for by a mix of factors, such as the rise of wages and the falling disutility of work.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Serdar Birinci, Loukas Karabarbounis & Kurt See.

The post Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Steve Sailer. Mexico 2,200 Greece 1,900 S. ... by Todd K
• In reply to Kaz Stanczak. “Yet average annual hours worked ... by Todd K
• In reply to Banking is indeed investment. Thank you for the ... by Kaz Stanczak
• It is unfortunate that they did not use the latest version of ... by M
• I've just scanned the paper, and Grok read it, and we have the ... by Kaz Stanczak
• Plus 2 more...

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
• The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up

 

The interpretation of polygenic scores (PGS) for general cognitive ability (GCA) remains contested, with concerns about indirect genetic effects, environmental confounding, cross-ancestry portability, and the gap between PGS prediction and twin heritability estimates. Relying on a newly constructed PGS using within-family designs in two independent sibling cohorts (UK Biobank, N=4,642 pairs; ABCD, N=736 pairs), we demonstrate that direct genetic effects account for the large majority of PGS prediction (within-family attenuation \delta / \beta \approx 0.88). Correcting for measurement error in brief cognitive assessments, the within-family association with latent general ability is approximately 0.45, substantially higher than observed-scale estimates. Cross-ancestry portability follows theoretical expectations (66% effect retention in African Americans). Within families, higher PGS predicts greater educational attainment, occupational status, and reduced cardiometabolic disease risk, with no evidence for gene-environment interactions or substantial adverse pleiotropy. These findings replicate using a benchmark predictor based on publicly available data, confirming they reflect properties of cognitive genetic architecture rather than idiosyncrasies of a particular score.

I expect results like this will hold up.  Here is commentary from GPT Pro.

The post Interpreting Polygenic Prediction of Cognitive Ability appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dismalist. Just stick with the well honed ... by Engineer
• In reply to Neurotic. Of course fifth graders (and younger) ... by Elad
• The iconic 1958 photograph, titled “A Great Day in Harlem,” ... by Speaking of special talents
• In reply to Steve Sailer. To be fair the comments here are ... by Marcel
• In reply to Neurotic. Virtually every sport, with perhaps a ... by Steve Sailer
• Plus 10 more...

 

The “Wow” here is exactly right, as it is wonderful to have a new great restaurant around. Most Nepalese restaurants in America are variants on north Indian food with batches of half-hearted momos thrown in. This place is the real thing. The goat momos are among the best dishes in northern Virginia right now. The fish is excellent, everything else at least very good. Note that the place is small and fills up early, so arrive in time to get your seat.  Strongly recommended.

The post Wow Nepal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to PaulD. And in the West, too! Maultaschen, ... by yo
• In reply to Old Programmer. TIL about fish in Nepalese ... by mgregoire
• In reply to Title I: Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. ... by Kayleigh Reuter
• In reply to Kaleberg. I've always read that sushi is made ... by mkt42
• In reply to Alistair. Some birds eat caviar-style fish roe ... by the plural of potatum is potata
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up
• Marginal Garfield

 

2. Creating artificial gravity in space?

3. Good news for your testicles?

4. The contingencies of the South African economy.

5. AI aggregation and knowledge.

6. The real effects of nominal interest rates.

7. Might Venezuela grow twelve percent this year?

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Kaleberg. Our species is as likely to live on ... by Neurotic
• In reply to Mark C. Yes, this. An oil company CEO who decides ... by Neurotic
• In reply to Paul. Lead was a fellow-traveller but the acid ... by RAD
• In reply to mkt42. That explains why the bumper sticker had a ... by RAD
• In reply to mkt42. The researcher still needs to gain the ... by RAD
• Plus 10 more...

 

Please apply and encourage your students to apply.

The post The Public Choice Outreach Conference! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Old Programmer. ⁣⁣⁣Surprising! I’ve been ... by Kayleigh Reuter
• In reply to rayward. To be clear, this is not a matter of ... by rayward
• Well, Public choice seeks to find the self-interest in supposed ... by Public choice of public choice
• Does Public Choice say anything relevant to America having a ... by Calvin Hobbes
• In reply to John Hawkins. Of course there is prior alignment. ... by Public choice of public choice
• Plus 6 more...

Related Stories

• Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
• The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up
• Advice for economics graduate students (and faculty?) vis-a-vis AI

 

We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shocks in a shift-share identification strategy across Philippine provinces. Initial migrant income shocks are magnified six-fold over time, increasing domestic income, education levels, migrant skills, and high-skilled migration. Remarkably, 74.9 percent of long-run income gains come from domestic rather than migrant income. Trade driven impacts of exchange rate shocks are orthogonal to effects via migrant income. A structural model reveals that 19.7 percent of long-run income gains stem from educational investments. International migration fosters broad economic development in origin communities.

That is from a recent AER piece by Gaurav Khanna, Emir Murathanoglu, Caroline Theoharides, and Dean Yang.  Here is a good thread on the piece.

The post Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. I am making a good salary from home ... by Gabriella Santo
• In reply to Anti-Gnostic. ⁣⁣⁣Surprising! I’ve been ... by Kayleigh Reuter
• In reply to Sure. NYC migrants vote for “collectivism “ ! ... by Gman
• In reply to bazza. An edit feature is needed: “loss of ... by bazza
• In reply to Sure. I couldn't read the thread unroll. However, ... by bazza
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• Advice for economics graduate students (and faculty?) vis-a-vis AI
• Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?

 

Declining fertility and population loss pose significant challenges for state and federal local governments responsible for providing a range of services to citizens, including education, health care, and infrastructure. Indeed, many areas are already experiencing outright population decline, with roughly half of U.S. counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. This paper examines how shrinking and aging populations affect the operations and fiscal sustainability of state and local governments. Preliminary evidence presented in this paper suggests that scaling down educational services is considerably more difficult than scaling up. The estimated per-enrollee cost increases associated with a 10 percent enrollment decline are four times larger than the cost decreases associated with a 10 percent enrollment increase. Regions with contracting populations will face additional challenges as a smaller working-age population bears the burden of funding pensions and retiree health plans for larger aging cohorts. While lower fertility can create a short run fiscal dividend as local governments serve fewer children, that dividend will only be realized if state and local public officials make efficient retrenchment a priority.

From Jeffrey Clemens, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.  As I think JFV mentioned lately, we have not done enough thinking about what a society with low TFR really is going to look like after a while.

The post Does this have implications for higher ed in particular? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to mkt42. I am making a good salary from home ... by Gabriella Santo
• In reply to Gilligan. My employer paid the fees for advanced ... by bazza
• In reply to Gilligan. Think of the universities that have ... by superdestroyer
• In reply to Wayfaring Stranger. Don't forget payment caps ... by Gilligan
• In reply to ElsieT. One approach would be to put colleges on ... by anonprof
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
• Emergent Ventures winners, 53rd cohort

 

If you have no particular intellectual interests or ambitions and are content with the company of your family and friends, then life on Iceland must be very pleasant, because the inhabitants are friendly, tolerant, and sane.  They are genuinely proud of their country and its history, but without the least trace of hysterical nationalism.  I always found that they welcome criticism.  But I had the feeling, also, that for myself it was already too late.  We are all too deeply involved Europe to be able, or even to wish to escape.  Though I am sure you would enjoy a visit as much as I did, I think that, in the long run, the Scandinavian sanity would be too much for you, as it is for me.  The truth is, we are both only really happy living among lunatics.

That is from W.H. Auden and Louis MacNeice, Letters from Iceland, from 1937, which is one of the better travel books, if indeed that is what it is.

The post Auden on Iceland appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to ThatsNotAll. So many things that an Island ... by Atom
• In reply to SJ. Yes, but they all had to keep it sub rosa. ... by Erika Mann
• When the Vikings pitched up Iceland was already inhabited by ... by dearieme
• In reply to &. “because it’s cold and dark”: only in ... by dearieme
• In reply to William Carrington. Soccer fans are usually ... by Moral Panic
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Good sentences
• What I’ve been reading
• My very interesting Conversation with Arthur C. Brooks

 

This leads us to the next of Freud’s major contributions to neuroscience: his realization that cognition is, at bottom, wishful.

That is from the new and notable Mark Solms, The Only Cure: Freud and the Neuroscience of Mental Healing.  This is a good book for people who underrated Freud, or think he is a mere charlatan.

The post Good sentences appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Jamie_NYC. That's not something he ever actually ... by t
• Solms seems to posit in the quotation that Freud is the first ... by Mark D
• In reply to Tjl. We, and especially Europe, should take note. by TMC
• In reply to Ai. Almost any freshman or sophomore who reads ... by Thor
• Link is to wrong book Here’s the right one ... by Ed
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• My very interesting Conversation with Arthur C. Brooks
• Auden on Iceland
• The Happiness Crash of 2020

 

California’s $20 fast food minimum wage raised wages in the sector by roughly 8 percent relative to the rest of the country but employment fell by 2.3 to 3.9 percent (depending on specification, median ~3.2%), translating to about 18,000 lost jobs. Food away from home (FAFH) prices in California’s four CPI-reporting MSAs rose 3.3–3.6 percent relative to 17 control MSAs. Falsification tests on Food at Home and All Items Less Food and Energy show zero differential movement—this is specific to restaurant prices.

What’s interesting is that the papers are independently estimated but the fit is consistent. The price paper uses Andreyeva et al.’s demand elasticity of -0.8 to convert the estimated price increases into an implied quantity declines: about 3.9–4.1 percent in limited-service and 1.7–1.8 percent in full-service. These align well with the employment declines of 3.2 and 2.1 percent estimated in the first paper.

The consistency tells us something about the mechanism. One thing we have learned about the minimum wage in recent years is that the pass-through effect is large and more of the employment decline is driven by pass through than by labor-capital substitution. In other words, prices rose, quantity demanded fell, and that’s what killed the jobs—not robots replacing workers. Not today, anyway.

In terms of welfare, the bulk of employed workers get an 8% wage increase, a small minority get disemployed. The big transfer was from consumers to workers. California has roughly 39 million residents, all of whom face 3.3–3.6% higher FAFH prices. The transfer is likely regressive — lower-income households spend a larger budget share on fast food specifically. So the policy effectively taxes low-income consumers generally to raise wages for a subset of low-income workers, while eliminating jobs for another subset. Your mileage may vary but I don’t see this as a big win for workers. We thought small increases in the minimum wage were absorbed–maybe some were or maybe they were just hard to estimate–but you can’t extrapolate the small  increases to big ones–the effect is non-linear. Big increases in the minimum wage start to bite.

As usual, when it comes to fast food there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Addendum: Clemens’s JEP paper continues to be the masterclass in how to think through minimum wage issues.

The post The CA Minimum Wage Increase: Summing Up appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• If you don't tell me what the cumulative earnings increase of ... by Old Guy
• In reply to anonprof. I've thought about this kind of thing ... by Mike
• In reply to anonprof. Thank you for putting an idea forward ... by MikeT
• In reply to Anti-economist. Clinging to a 13th century ... by Scott H.
• In reply to Okay. Because doing some 'shadow work' doesn't ... by Slocum
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• The President(s) Fought the Law and the Law Won
• Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?

 

2. Move abroad so you can default on your student debt (NYT).

3. History of golf course bunkers (WSJ).

4. Four reasons why possible aliens might make you more ambitious.

5. New learnings on octopuses and sex.

6. “They estimate roughly 90% of the tariffs have been passed through to importers, with foreign exporters absorbing only about 10% of the cost by lowering their before-tariff prices.“

The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to the spinal tap upside-down goes to eleven. ... by Branch Tricky
• In reply to J Taylor. Fascinating how destructive taxation ... by Branch Tricky
• In reply to Ace. Incorrecti! Apple dictionary: USAGE The ... by RAD
• In reply to mkt42. After copulating, the female octopus will ... by RAD
• In reply to bazza. Brugel – European and Chinese exports ... by M
• Plus 10 more...

 

Lily Zuckerman, University of Austin (and NYC), painting and general career support.

Benjamin Unger, NYC, AI to measure the performance of New York governments.

Maarten Boudry, Brussels, to write a book on who is really for progress, or not.

Allan Wandia, San Francisco, foundation models that learn directly from raw experimental data.

Richard Ng, London, AI agents.

Jordan Unokesan, London, trust scoring for government contractors.

Alexander Griffiths, London, infrastructure policy and decisions.

Pio Borgelt, 17, Osnabruck, AI. 

Vedant Agarwal, 18, Cambridge UK, biosciences.

Chris Lee, Murietta, 18, CA, police recruitment.

Broderick Cotter, Austin, 17, finding the best materials for 3-D printing.

Jehan Azad, San Francisco, radar and UAPs.

Marius Drozdzewski, with collaborators, Berlin, German liberal periodical Aevum.

Ethan Galloway, London, 16, AI algorithms.

Keelan O’Carroll, Florida, happiness podcast.

The post Emergent Ventures winners, 53rd cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• How about an Emergent Ventures cohort for late bloomers? by the lentil whisperer
• Very curious to see paintings by a UofAustin student. But none ... by Action Figure
• What is progress? by Pontius Pilate

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
• Does this have implications for higher ed in particular?

 

Rich and poor countries differ in the size distribution of business firms. This paper shows that the right tail of the firm size distribution systematically grows thicker with economic development, both within countries over time and across countries. The author develops a simple idea search model with both endogenous growth and an endogenous firm size distribution. The economy features an asymptotic balanced growth path. Along the transition, Gibrat’s law holds at each date, and the right tail of the firm size distribution becomes monotonically thicker. The firm size distribution converges to Zipf’s distribution. The model also implies that policies favouring large firms can improve welfare due to the externality associated with idea search. Finally, the author extends the results obtained in the simple model to a general class of idea search models. Under common functional form assumptions, this model stands out as the only model within that class that is consistent with both Gibrat’s law and a thickening right tail.

That is by Zhang Chen, and a revised version will be appearing in Econometrica.

The post Economic growth and the rise of large firms appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Vivian Darkbloom. “Rayward has completely ... by Bill Allen
• In reply to Dismalist. Check out the “Random Group ... by Michael Nahas
• In reply to Vivian Darkbloom. If you interpret it that way, ... by M
• In reply to rayward. As competing totalitarian modernist ... by The Scary Black Hundreder
• In reply to rayward. Marginalism, innovations that improve ... by rayward
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?
• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development

 

2. Does it help poets to be religious?

3. Martin Jay on Habermas.

4. U.S. prime age employment rate is near an all-time high.  For a different perspective, here is NYT on AI and the job market.  And new measures of AI task performance from MIT.

5. China’s AI education experiment.

6. Real retail U.S. electricity prices have fallen since 2010.

7. Compare ride-share prices.

8. Is Mandarin being Europeanized?

9. 2000 or so additional pages of Leibniz will be published.

10. The game theory of the NCAA EO.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• In reply to Dismalist. Are you restating/agreeing with my ... by other derek
• #8. The dumbest thing I've read this week. The false assumption ... by Seong of Baekje
• In reply to Quentin. I'm not seeing the hand of AI in that ... by mkt42
• In reply to other derek. Electricity prices have been and ... by Mark Bahner
• In reply to MikeP. I quit working at shoprite and now I make ... by Alexandra Michelides
• Plus 10 more...

 

The post Advice for economics graduate students (and faculty?) vis-a-vis AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

Comments

• I've posted an answer which now appears in the main comment ... by Someone with common sense
• In reply to Someone with common sense. To clarify the above ... by Someone with common sense
• AI skeptics focus on the hallucinations, but the actual place ... by Andrew
• Like other proofs of NP-hardness, the Ingenia Theorem does not ... by Someone with common sense
• In reply to Engineer. The bottom 50% would have been better ... by S
• Plus 10 more...

Related Stories

• The Public Choice Outreach Conference!
• Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
• I appear on the Coleman Hughes podcast