Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

The Fed Meeting Isn’t the Main Story

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

In this episode of the https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2026/09/16/to-hike-or-not-to-hike-this-is-the-question-but-does-the-answer-really-matter-005207";>Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey argues that investors are paying too much attention to the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision and too little attention to the larger fiscal pressures shaping the U.S. economy.

With CME FedWatch odds near 95% for a 25-basis-point rate increase, Maharrey said a hike by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh appeared likely at the time of the recording (and the FOMC did, in fact, increase interest rates by 25bps). But he stressed that a single quarter-point move cannot resolve the forces driving the economy.

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A One-and-Done Rate Hike

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Maharrey said Warsh’s public commitment to the Fed’s 2% personal-consumption-expenditures inflation target has put pressure on him to demonstrate a hawkish stance. He also noted that the August jobs report was stronger than expected and that rising oil prices had reignited mainstream inflation concerns.

Still, Maharrey disputed the case for a sustained tightening cycle. CNBC survey respondents reportedly expected https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/15/while-everybody-obsesses-about-rate-hikes-federal-spending-marches-along-unabatted-005205";>two rate hikes over the following 12 months, while about one-third expected three. Maharrey said he believed rates would instead be lower in 12 months because the broader economy cannot tolerate significantly higher borrowing costs.

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An oil-price shock, he argued, is not the same thing as monetary inflation. Higher interest rates cannot create more oil, and he cited economist Daniel Lacalle’s point that monetary policy cannot directly remedy a supply-driven energy-price increase.

The $40 Trillion Constraint

Maharrey described the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/40-trillion-debt-black-hole-is-a-financial-crisis-coming-005149";>U.S. government’s roughly $40 trillion debt as the issue markets should be tracking. He said the Trump administration recorded a $166.8 billion deficit in August, putting the fiscal 2026 shortfall at $1.97 trillion with one month remaining in the fiscal year.

He emphasized that calendar effects distorted the monthly data. Because certain Social Security and Medicare payments were moved into July, the adjusted August deficit was about $248 billion, or $7 billion higher than the comparable August 2025 figure, rather than the 52% decline reported in some headlines.

Through August, the federal government had received $4.85 trillion in revenue, up 3.3% from the same period in fiscal 2025, but spent $6.81 trillion, up 2.2%. Maharrey calculated that for every $1 in revenue, Washington spent $1.41, meaning 28.9% of federal outlays were financed with borrowed money.

Maharrey’s conclusion was that the problem is not inadequate revenue, but persistent overspending. In an economy reliant on debt and government-funded growth, he said, higher interest rates eventually threaten the financial structure itself.

All Roads Lead to Inflation

Whether the Fed raises rates or holds them steady, Maharrey expects the long-term outcome to be the same... economic stress followed by rate cuts, renewed monetary easing, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/16/goldwin-smiths-dire-warnings-about-paper-money-matter-more-than-ever-005203";>and continuing currency debasement.

He argued that a rate hike would increase the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/11/the-fed-will-hike-or-it-wont-it-really-doesnt-matter-005195";>odds of a recession or market crisis, prompting the Fed to return to near-zero rates and money creation. If the Fed does not hike, he said, it risks allowing inflationary pressures to continue. Either route, in his view, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/31/gold-takes-a-hit-as-rate-hike-odds-surge-005176";>reinforces the case for holding gold and silver.

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Maharrey https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/12/daniel-lacalle-rate-hikes-wont-fix-inflation-or-solve-the-debt-problem-005197";>referenced a recent interview with Lacalle, who argued that selling precious metals solely because rates rise misunderstands the underlying problem. Gold and silver do not yield interest, but Maharrey contended that higher yields on the debt of an increasingly indebted government do not necessarily represent a superior long-term store of value.

Namibia Builds Its First Gold Reserve

Maharrey closed by highlighting Namibia’s new domestic gold-purchase program. In March, the Bank of Namibia signed an agreement with QKR Namibia Navachab Gold Mine to buy domestically produced gold on a phased basis as part of its reserve-diversification and financial-resilience strategy.

The first phase targets gold equal to 3% of Namibia’s international reserves, or roughly N$1.74 billion. As of July, Maharrey said the country had accumulated 8,574 troy ounces, valued at about N$573.4 million. Reaching the phase-one goal would require another approximately 17,000 ounces, bringing total holdings to about 25,721 ounces, or roughly 0.8 metric tons.

While small in global terms, Maharrey said Namibia’s program reflects a broader trend of central banks and governments seeking to diversify reserves amid concerns over debt, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/debasement-trade-gains-ground-as-nations-reassess-dollars-bonds-and-gold-005191";>currency debasement, geopolitical uncertainty, and the dollar’s long-term role in global finance.

Walking Liberty Half Dollar Value - 90% Silver Melt Value vs. Collector Premium - 1921-D and 1938-D Key Dates, the 1917-S Obverse Mintmark, and Record Auction Prices - Money Metals

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Walking Liberty Half Dollar value depends on several factors, including the coin’s date, mint mark, condition, and silver content. This coin series ran from 1916 to 1947. Even though a century has passed, the Walking Liberty Half Dollar is still regarded as one of the most beautiful coins ever created by the United States Mint. In 1986, it passed its obverse design to the Silver Eagle coin.

This design, created by sculptor Adolph A Weinman, depicts Lady Liberty striding toward the rising sun on the obverse and a powerful eagle perched on a mountain crag on the reverse.

Today these silver half dollars remain popular with both collectors and investors. Collectors love the coin for its artistic design, historical significance, and challenging key dates. Investors are often drawn to the coin’s 90% silver composition and the value of its precious metal content.

Common-date examples can often be purchased for modest premiums above their silver value. However, scarce dates and high-grade specimens can sell for hundreds or even thousands of dollars. In some cases, exceptionally rare coins have brought six-figure prices at major auctions.

This guide will explain the key factors that influence prices and highlights some of the most desirable coins in the series.

What Is a Walking Liberty Half Dollar Worth Today?

Silver Melt Value

Every https://www.moneymetals.com/walking-liberty-90-silver-half-dollar-almost-uncirculated/3057";>Walking Liberty Half Dollar contains 0.36169 troy ounces of pure silver, giving it an intrinsic value based on the current silver spot price. The industry often refers to that as the coin’s melt value.

There is a quick formula you can use to estimate your coin’s melt value.

Melt value = https://www.moneymetals.com/walking-liberty-90-silver-half-dollar-almost-uncirculated/3057";>current spot price of silver x 0.36169

This formula helps you estimate the melt value, but it will not tell you the coin’s full market value. Most Walking Liberty Half Dollars sell for more than their silver content because collectors also value their rarity, condition, and historical significance.

Collector Value vs Bullion Value

The market value of a Walking Liberty Half Dollar depends on more than its silver content. Common-date coins in circulated condition often trade for a modest premium above melt value because they are widely available. These coins appeal to both silver investors and collectors looking for affordable examples of the series.

Scarcer dates and higher-grade coins can be worth much more. Low-mintage issues like the 1921-D and 1938-D are in high demand for numismatic collectors.

Other coins command higher premiums because of their grade or condition. A coin certified as high-grade by https://www.pcgs.com/";>respected grading services like PCGS or NGC can gain significant value beyond its melt, especially if it has strong eye appeal and an original surface.

Demand also plays an important role. Walking Liberty Half Dollars remain one of the most popular classic U.S. coin series thanks to their iconic design and connection to https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/coins/american-silver-eagle";>the American Silver Eagle. As collector demand increases and high-quality examples become harder to find, premiums often rise as well.

The point is simple: do not just judge a coin based on its melt value. Instead, consider the coin’s date, mint mark, condition, rarity, and overall collector demand, in addition to its silver content. Looking at all of these factors together will provide a much more accurate estimate than relying on melt value alone.

Walking Liberty Half Dollar Specifications

The Walking Liberty Half Dollar was struck in a standard 90% silver and 10% copper alloy, the same composition used for many U.S. silver coins before 1965. Each coin contains 0.36169 troy ounces of pure silver, which gives it a base value tied to the current silver price. Beyond its metal content, collectors also consider condition, date, and mint mark when judging value.

Specification	Details
Composition	90% silver, 10% copper
Weight	12.50 grams
Silver Content	0.36169 troy ounces
Diameter	30.6 mm
Edge	Reeded

Mint Marks and Mintmark Locations

Walking Liberty Half Dollars were produced at three United States Mint facilities:

Philadelphia
Denver
San Francisco

The Philadelphia Mint does not stamp its coins with a mintmark. In contrast, Denver coins display a D mintmark, and the San Francisco Mint uses an S mintmark on their coins.

Mintmark placement changed during the series. Coins struck in 1916 and early 1917 have the mintmark on the obverse, just below the motto “IN GOD WE TRUST.” Later in 1917, the Mint moved that mark to the reverse. From there, the mintmark appeared on the left side of the mountain crag, beneath the eagle.

This location remained the same through the end of the series in 1947.

A coin’s mintmark can have a significant effect on its value because each mint produced different quantities. Several times in the coin’s history, one mint struck many fewer coins than the others. That lower mintage has added a significant premium and demand for these coins.

Two highly valued examples are the 1921-D and 1938-D Walking Liberty Half Dollars. These are among the most sought-after key dates because of their low mintages and strong collector demand.

When evaluating a Walking Liberty Half Dollar, always check both the date and the mintmark. Two coins from the same year can have very different values depending on where they were struck. Mintmarks provide a clear and easy way to identify scarcer coins and determine whether a Walking Liberty Half Dollar may be worth more than its silver content.

Key Dates and Rare Walking Liberty Half Dollars

Some Walking Liberty Half Dollars are far more valuable than others because of low mintages, strong collector demand, or limited survival in higher grades. The industry refers to these as key dates and semi-key dates. Any of these coins can be worth significantly more than their silver melt value.

Coin	Why It Matters
1916-S	First-year San Francisco issue with strong collector demand.
1917-S Obverse	Early mintmark placement makes it popular with specialists.
1919-D	Scarce in higher grades and difficult to find with strong detail.
1919-S	Often weakly struck and hard to locate in premium condition.
1921	Low-mintage Philadelphia issue from a difficult year.
1921-D	One of the lowest-mintage coins in the series.
1921-S	Rare in higher grades and highly prized by collectors.
1938-D	Popular late-series key date with a low mintage.

The 1916-S is desirable because it comes from the first year of the series. First-year coins often attract added interest, especially when they carry a branch mint mark.

The 1917-S Obverse is an important coin because its mintmark appears on the front of the coin. Later that year, the Mint moved the mark to the coin’s reverse. Because of this short-lived placement, variety collectors find this coin very appealing.

The 1919-D and 1919-S are both tough coins to find in good condition. Many were heavily circulated, which makes well-struck examples difficult to come across. Surviving coins with sharp detail and original surfaces trade for significant premiums.

The three 1921 issues are among the most important coins in the series. The 1921, 1921-D, and 1921-S all had low mintages compared with many later Walking Liberty Half Dollars. The 1921-D is especially sought after due to its very low production.

The 1938-D is another major key date. It was struck late in the series, but its low mintage makes it popular with collectors building complete date-and-mintmark sets.

When checking a Walking Liberty Half Dollar, always confirm both the date and mintmark. https://www.moneymetals.com/1-face-pre-1965-90-silver-barber-halves-715-oz-of-silver-for-every-1-face-value/2427";>A common-date coin may be worth a modest premium over silver value, but a true key date can be worth much more.

What Determines Walking Liberty Half Dollar Value?

Several factors determine the value of a Walking Liberty Half Dollar. While every coin contains the same amount of silver, some are worth only their melt value, while others can sell for thousands of dollars. Understanding these factors can help you estimate what your coin may be worth.

The table below provides a general overview of Walking Liberty Half Dollar values. Actual prices vary based on the coin’s date, mint mark, grade, and current market conditions.

Typical Walking Liberty Half Dollar Values

Coin Type	Typical Value*
Common circulated dates	$15–$30
Better dates	$30–$150+
Key dates	$300–$10,000+
Gem Mint State coins	Hundreds to six figures

*Values vary based on grade, rarity, collector demand, and current silver prices.

Rarity

The rarest Walking Liberty Half Dollars are usually the most valuable. Coins with low mintages or limited surviving examples are harder to find, making them more desirable to collectors. Key dates such as the 1921-D and 1938-D often sell for much higher prices than common-date coins because demand greatly exceeds supply.

Condition and Grade

Condition is one of the biggest factors affecting value. Coins with little wear are much scarcer than heavily circulated examples. Professional grading services such as PCGS and https://www.ngccoin.com/";>NGC assign grades that help buyers and sellers compare coins fairly. Even a one-point increase in grade can significantly increase the value of a rare Walking Liberty Half Dollar.

Mint Mark

A coin’s mintmark shows where it was produced. Walking Liberty Half Dollars were struck in Philadelphia, Denver, and San Francisco. Some mints produced far fewer coins than others, making certain mintmarks more valuable. Always examine the mintmark along with the date, since two coins from the same year can have very different values.

Collector Demand

Collector demand also influences prices. The Walking Liberty Half Dollar is one of the most popular classic U.S. coin series because of its beautiful design and historical appeal. Many collectors work toward completing a full date-and-mintmark set, creating strong demand for scarce issues.

Demand also tends to increase for coins with attractive surfaces, original luster, and strong eye appeal. Even common dates can bring higher prices when they are well preserved and certified by a respected grading service.

How to Grade a Walking Liberty Half Dollar

A Walking Liberty Half Dollar’s grade is one of the biggest factors that determines its value. In general, coins with less wear are worth more because they are harder to find.

There is a distinct system that professional grading companies use to determine grade. That system uses a 70-point grading scale to provide an exact rating of the coin’s condition.

However, the layman collector can make a basic assessment just by looking at the amount of wear on the coin’s highest points.

Good to Fine (G-F)

A coin graded Good (G) or Fine (F) has spent many years in circulation. The main design is still visible, but many of the finer details have worn away. Liberty’s gown will appear smooth, and the folds in the fabric may be difficult to see. The sun’s rays near her feet will be faint, and the eagle’s feathers on the reverse will show little detail.

Although these coins are common, even lower grade key dates can still be valuable.

Extremely Fine to About Uncirculated (XF-AU)

An Extremely Fine (XF) coin shows only light wear. Most of the design details remain sharp, including the folds in Liberty’s gown and the eagle’s feathers. An About Uncirculated (AU) coin has even less wear and often retains much of its original mint luster.

These coins are popular because they combine strong eye appeal with a lower price than Mint State examples.

Mint State (MS)

A Mint State (MS) Walking Liberty Half Dollar has no wear from circulation. Instead of looking for wear, graders examine the quality of the strike, the strength of the luster, the number of contact marks, and the coin’s overall appearance.

MS65 coins and above are among the most highly desired coins. MS67 and higher examples are even more valuable, often because they are scarce for most coin dates. Even common-date coins in exceptional Mint State condition can be worth much more than the same coin in a lower grade.

Key Wear Points

When examining a Walking Liberty Half Dollar, focus on the highest parts of the design. On the obverse, check Liberty’s outstretched hand, the folds in her gown, and the sun’s rays near the rim.

On the reverse, look closely at the eagle’s breast feathers. These areas are usually the first to show wear. Comparing your coin with certified examples can help you estimate its grade before seeking a professional appraisal.

Beware of Counterfeits

Counterfeit Walking Liberty Half Dollars are common, especially for valuable key dates like the 1921-D. Some fakes are made from base metals, while others are genuine coins with altered dates or mintmarks. These little changes can go a long way to making a typical coin seem more valuable.

Fortunately, there are some simple practices you can employ to spot counterfeits. First, before you buy an expensive Walking Liberty Half Dollar, examine its date and mintmark. Look for signs of tooling, uneven surfaces, or mintmarks that seem like they were added after the coin was struck.

Other things to look for are poor detail, unusual color, or incorrect weight. All of these things can indicate a counterfeit, especially in combination with each other.

The easiest way to avoid this issue is to buy coins that have been authenticated and graded by trusted companies. Collectors cannot go wrong with PCGS or NGC graded coins. Their certification provides added confidence that the coin is genuine and accurately graded.

Record-Breaking Auction Sales

The highest auction prices for Walking Liberty Half Dollars demonstrate how rarity, condition, and collector demand can combine to create extraordinary values.

Coin	Grade	Auction House	Sale Date	Price Realized	Source
1919-D	PCGS MS66	Heritage Auctions	November 4, 2004	$270,250	https://www.ngccoin.com/auction-central/us/walking-liberty-half-dollars-1916-1947-pscid-42/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">NGC Auction Central
1917-S Obverse	PCGS MS67	Heritage Auctions	August 16, 2015	$152,750	https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1917-s-50c-obverse/6572/8505526253342959633"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">PCGS Auction Prices
1943	PCGS MS68+	Stack's Bowers Galleries	June 11, 2021	$120,000	https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1943-50c/6618/299365194787361956"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">PCGS Auction Prices

These coins achieved remarkable prices because they represent the perfect combination of rarity and exceptional preservation. The 1919-D is one of the toughest Walking Liberty Half Dollars to locate in Gem Mint State. These items become fiercely competitive when they enter auction.

The 1917-S Obverse is prized for its first-year obverse mintmark variety and limited availability in top grades. The 1943 issue is common in lower grades, but nearly flawless examples are exceptionally scarce.

Coins graded MS68+ are known as condition rarities, meaning their value comes from their incredible preservation. Collectors who pursue registry sets will fervently compete for these coins, which in turn drives prices far above melt value or even rarity premiums.

Conclusion

Walking Liberty Half Dollar values depend on silver content, date, mintmark, condition, and collector demand. Common circulated coins may trade close to their melt value, while key dates and high-grade examples can sell for much more. Coins such as the 1921-D, 1921-S, and 1938-D are especially important to identify.

Before buying or selling, check the coin’s mintmark and look closely for wear, cleaning, damage, or signs of alteration. For expensive coins, professional grading from PCGS or NGC can help confirm authenticity and condition. A careful review can help you avoid costly mistakes and make better collecting decisions.

To Hike or Not to Hike? This Is the Question! (But Does It Really Matter?)

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will nudge interest rates higher at the September meeting.

But should it?

What are the potential impacts?

And would such a move really be negative for gold and silver?

This week, Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey takes on these questions. He explains the pros and cons of a rate hike, why the mainstream has accepted higher rates as the path forward, and why it's not nearly as bearish for precious metals as you're being led to believe.

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Mike opens the show by telling the audience about his weekend adventure.

"My son and I went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Cincinnati Bengals football game last weekend. He lives in northern Kentucky, and he’s a Bengals fan. I’ve been a Bucs fan since they came into the league. Despite the "house divided," we had a blast.

"It had been years since I’d attended a pro football game live. It’s kind of weird without the commentators constantly blathering on. It’s nice, but I didn’t realize how much I rely on the commentary to keep up with what’s going on.

"Another difference between TV and the live experience is that the TV camera always follows the ball. It’s harder to do that when you have the perspective of the entire field. I found myself losing the ball from time to time because my eyes were following where I thought the ball would go – not where it actually went.

"In case you were wondering, you miss a lot if you’re following the wrong thing!

"And that’s exactly what’s going on with everybody obsessing over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates today. It’s the wrong thing."

And what exactly does Mike think is more important than Fed rate policy right now?

"I think the next trillion dollars in debt piled up by the federal government will have far more impact on the economy and the markets than a little quarter-point rate hike."

Mike explains that the market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to push interest rates up by 25 basis points at the September meeting, which wraps up today. While he was initially 50-50 on the Fed's next move, he said he now leans toward a hike simply because it's what the market expects.

"If it were Powell, I would guarantee a hike because he was one to always do the expected. I’m not sure Warsh is wired that way, but it would be pretty surprising to go against the market consensus."

But Mike said he doesn't think it matters.

"Even if they do nudge rates up, I’m almost certain it will be a one-and-done tightening cycle."

Meanwhile, people are selling gold and silver because they expect a higher-rate environment. Mike doesn't think that's wise.

"Even if the central bank does give rates a nudge, it isn’t a reason to sell gold and silver. It’s not bearish. You’re going to want gold no matter what the central bankers do. Because here’s the thing – they’re either going to crash the debt-riddled bubble economy or they’re going to let inflation run free. By the way, inflation will run free either way because when the economy crashes, the Fed will almost certainly do what it always does and pivot to zero percent rates and money printing to prop up the economy."

Mike acknowledges he's betting against the mainstream. A recent CNBC Fed survey found a majority of respondents believe the central bank will hike rates twice in the next 12 months, with a third eyeing three rate increases.

Mike says, "No way!"

"I’m not a gambler, but I would almost bet money that rates will be lower in 12 months, not higher. I could be wrong. Other factors could intervene. But the trajectory of the economy is not conducive to high interest rates."

Mike reiterates the Fed remains mired in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773";>a Catch-22.

"The Fed simultaneously needs to hike rates to keep price inflation under control and cut rates to support the debt-riddled bubble economy."

The Fed chair also faces significant pressure.

"If Warsh hikes at this meeting, it could tip the economy into a full-blown crisis. But if he doesn’t, he risks appearing feckless and weak."

Mike thinks the Fed head has talked himself into a corner by insisting he will be tough on inflation. He sounds like a man ready to hike rates to the moon. But, notably, there hasn't actually been a hike.

Nevertheless, everyone assumes he will put his (our) money where his mouth is this time. Mike says he can understand the reasoning.

"Price inflation remains mired well above the mythical 2 percent target. Oil prices spiked again over the last few weeks, reigniting inflation fears. (An oil price shock isn’t really “https://youtu.be/lmvFyBBJORM?si=7JcSiyJ4DxPNYtjg";>inflation,” but most people think it is, so we’ll accept this as a rationale.) The August jobs report was solid, giving the central bank some wiggle room to argue the economy is good and can handle a hike."

But Mike says he can also make a strong case for holding rates steady or even cutting.

"Forty-trillion reasons, in fact.

"It’s pretty tough to contemplate a higher rate environment when the U.S. government is $40 trillion in debt and needs the central bank to support its borrowing and spending.

"And the borrowing and spending isn’t going to end anytime soon."

Mike highlights the spending situation using recently released August deficit data.

So, how does this tie into our discussion of the Fed?

"Economies dominated by a https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/15/debt-black-hole-putting-increasing-stress-on-american-consumers-004483";>Debt Black Hole don’t do well with higher rates. And everybody knows this. Of course, nobody will say it out loud. But I guarantee you they’re talking about it privately inside the hallowed halls of the Eccles Building."

Mike says he thinks the arguments for holding rates steady actually outweigh those for a hike.

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"The economy is far from 'overheated.' CPI seems to be moving in the right direction -- the slightly hotter August data notwithstanding. Raising interest rates can’t fix an oil price shock. But I kind of agree with the consensus. I lean toward a rate hike, simply because Warsh doesn’t want to lose face."

Mike then drops the bombshell. He doesn't think the Fed's next move matters all that much one way or another.

"Either way, we ultimately end up in the same place -- a crashing economy, surging inflation, and interest rates at zero. If the Fed hikes, I think it will tip the economy. It’s already on the edge. The debt bubble is bulging. Economic growth is stagnant when you factor out government spending. An economy addicted to easy money can’t function for very long without the easy money drug."

"And do you know what central banks do when the economy gets shaky? They cut interest rates.

"In my view, the most likely scenario is a hike with a pretty quick pivot back to rate cuts.

"But even if they don't hike, rates are still too high given the level of debt and the economy's need for the easy money drug. We're still on the path to an economic reckoning, and the money printing will continue.

"In other words, all roads lead to more inflation."

Mike reiterates that the Fed will hike. Or it won't.

"But no matter what it does, it can’t change the overall trajectory of the economy. It can’t erase $40 trillion in debt. It can’t make the world fall in love with the dollar again. It won’t change its planned policy of 2 percent annual currency debasement. Don’t get too caught up in this single Fed meeting. Keep your eye on the big picture."

Mike wraps up the show by highlighting a story out of Namibia in southwestern Africa.

The country is in the process of building gold reserves for the first time, and the central bank is pursuing its initial goal of 3 percent gold reserves through a domestic buying program.

"While we’re not talking about large amounts of gold, the move is another sign pointing toward gold’s growing importance in global finance."

Mike emphasizes that the reasons central banks are stacking gold are the same reasons you should consider stacking gold (and silver). When the government constantly debases your currency, you need to save in real money.

Mike closes the show by urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today.

Articles Mentioned During the Show

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/14/beyond-the-cpi-the-complete-inflation-story-august-2026-005198";>Beyond the CPI: The Complete Inflation Story -- August 2026

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/12/daniel-lacalle-rate-hikes-wont-fix-inflation-or-solve-the-debt-problem-005197";>Daniel Lacalle: Rate Hikes Won't Fix Inflation or Solve the Debt Problem

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/15/while-everybody-obsesses-about-rate-hikes-federal-spending-marches-along-unabatted-005205";>While Everybody Obsesses About Rate Hikes, Federal Spending Marches Along Unabated

Goldwin Smith’s Dire Warnings About Paper Money Matter More Than Ever

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

In 1883, https://share.google/jlhEcVAx5gYoOBhiX"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Goldwin Smith gave an address, later published as https://books.googleusercontent.com/books/content?req=AKW5Qad_Jq-SZnA2c9GD8Gs4r9djsPgq1QQ7PShbLyYmSdT-aulMPIWbR86O3mDjvCzQChW6Djnc0DOvjxDJgQ-E7rGiO6GjtOdPhNkXirMn0T7FwPFuwrHbmLwmNoYeOb8sXRbJRT9gWKlPL3bm2Y-j-Y8rorl9KGwcHBmObyL1iAtQ8KU07sCyW38j-WtN0X35t8aySUNYXBeqSLw8wa86sfz7yA0e3Xxa3FlOEIKcjASRRMzcq89kIBz00C9CNTgZpsNqwlcD"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">False Hopes: Or, Fallacies Socialistic and Semi-Socialistic, Briefly Answered, taking on a number of the political and economic fallacies of his time. His remarks on inconvertible paper money are still worth considering today.

The names have changed, but the impulse behind Greenback advocates has carried right through to modern government deficits and attempts to manipulate the currency.

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Smith had some good observations about inflationary policies, not least that “Among the champions of paper currency there are no doubt, knaves, many a one, who know very well what they are about, and whose aim is to defraud the creditor, public and private, by paying off the debt with depreciated paper.”

Most notably, he recognized that inflation tends to favor debtors at the expense of creditors.

That’s why debt-financed deficit spending tends to be popular with the government.

Meanwhile, when it comes to claims of “honest” inflation advocates, Smith noted that there were plenty of “honest enthusiasts” who believed “that a commercial millenium could be opened by merely issuing a flood of promissory notes and refusing payment.”

This reflects one of the central delusions of advocates of fiat money, that increasing the money supply actually increases wealth.

Of course, the mere printing of money does not create goods, services, gold, silver, land, or anything else that people might want to buy.

All it does is devalue the quantity of money and claims on the quantity of money in circulation.

Smith put it this way…

“The bill is a promissory note, and the bank in increasing the number of its bills, like a trader who increases the number of his promissory notes, adds, not to its assets, but to its liabilities.”

That’s a crucial distinction that has been largely lost in the modern world.

Your banknote used to be a promissory note, a promise to pay the bearer in gold or silver. Now all the Federal Reserve note promises is another claim on the Federal Reserve.

That’s a subtle but substantial difference.

What Does a Fiat Dollar Mean?

So what would it actually mean if someone took the inconvertible idea to its logical conclusion?

“Suppose the promissory form to be discarded, and the bill to be simply inscribed ‘one dollar,’ as the Fiat-money men propose, what would ‘dollar’ mean?”

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Smith answered that question himself. Advocates of fiat “money” would claim it meant “a certain proportion of the wealth of the country, upon which, as an aggregate, the currency would be based.”

But this raises an obvious question. What proportion?

Smith continued, “The most serious difficulty is that while the coin, which a convertible bank bill represents, is the property of the bank of issue, the aggregate wealth of the country is not the property of the Government, but of a multitude of private owners.”

This is an important insight that goes to the very heart of the proper role of government in the economy and society. The government cannot just print money and spend it on whatever it wants, as if that wealth actually belonged to the State.

Smith explained the problem in direct terms.

“In issuing an order for a loaf of bread, a coat, or a leg of mutton, to be taken from the possessions of the community at large, it would be simply signing a ticket of spoliation.”

So what did he mean by “ticket of spoliation”?

He meant that the devaluation of currency through monetary inflation tends to decrease the amount of goods one can purchase with a given sum of money.

Just like the Cantillon Effect, such fiat-printing inflation favors whoever gets to spend the new money first and makes life harder for those who have to spend it later.

Legal Tender Is Not Consent

Legal-tender laws, meanwhile, tend to undermine private contracts.

“In one sense, of course, government can, by its fiat, put value into paper. It can make the paper Legal Tender for debts, in other words, it can issue licenses of repudiation.”

This means that a government can unilaterally change the terms of a financial contract after the fact. By declaring certain paper money legal tender, it essentially allows itself to evade existing debts by paying them off in currency the government knows will be devalued.

That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of legal-tender laws.

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Smith wrote that “Legal Tender confuses the ideas of the people, shakes commercial morality, and prepares the way for the attempts of the Fiat-money men, and for all the mischief which they breed.”

A free society should not be tied to any particular currency.

If people want to make contracts in gold, silver, dollars, or any other medium of exchange, that should be their business.

Competition between currencies can serve as a useful check on inflation because people can move to alternatives if the issuer of one currency becomes irresponsible.

Legal-tender laws and central banks instead prevent that competition and force everyone to accept a single, depreciating currency.

However, one important note is that gold and silver are still Constitutional money and are still considered “legal tender.” For further details, please see the U.S. Constitution, https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-10/clause-1/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 1, Section 10, Clause 1; and https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-8/clause-5/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Article 1, Section 8, Clause 5.

It is perfectly legal to buy things with gold or silver sound money as the tender of the transaction; therefore, gold and silver are legal tender by definition.

This is something that Money Metals and the https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/about-us"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sound Money Defense League have been actively advocating for well over a decade.

Gold and Silver Were Chosen by the Market

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/SoundMoneyReview-2026.pdf";>Gold and silver deserve their place as money because of the unique qualities found in the precious metals themselves, rather than any government decree.

“The value is in the gold. It is in exchange for the gold that, whenever a sale takes place, the commodity is given.”

That seems simple enough, but it has huge implications.

It means that gold and silver function as money because people value them as commodities. They are useful as media of exchange precisely because their value can be measured and divided.

Personally, I will simply overlook Smith’s use of “intrinsic value,” while accepting his core argument that gold and silver are implicitly, tacitly, and explicitly more valuable than paper fiat currencies.

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Smith observed that precious metals “were felt to have special advantages as mediums of exchange and universal standards of value, on account of their durability, their uniformity, their portability, their capability of receiving a stamp, of being divided with exactness, and of being fused again with ease.”

Gold and silver are valuable materials with convenient properties that allow them to serve as useful media of exchange.

They can be used as money, either as bullion or coins, aka “specie,” if people choose them.

A free market does not need a currency issued and mandated by the government to function. It can operate with a wide variety of media of exchange and standards of value, limited only by people’s capacity to measure and carry them.

The Limits of Monetary Management

When it comes to managing the currency, Smith had one particularly memorable analogy.

“Setting government to settle the circulation of paper, is having the barometer regulated by superior wisdom without reference to atmospheric pressure.”

In other words, governments cannot effectively control the broader economy or set interest rates because they lack the information and flexibility of the marketplace.

Inflation and monetary policy involve a huge number of variables that cannot possibly be understood by any central authority.

Markets are messy, but they have advantages when it comes to incorporating the diverse and often contradictory inputs of millions of individuals.

As for governments that believe they can control the currency to advantage, Smith warned, “Even the least dishonest of such governments, when in want of money, thinks nothing of issuing a flood of legal tender currency, without reference to the state of the money market, a proceeding which is in the nature of a forced loan.”

That’s another way of saying inflation benefits the government by allowing it to spend more than it otherwise could.

The people end up paying the piper, in one fashion or another.

Bimetallism and Currency Competition

When it comes to bimetallism, Smith was entirely correct that “How is it possible for any convention of nations to fix, and to keep fixed, the relation of any two commodities, when, among other determining circumstances, the rate of production varies from year to year?”

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He was right to oppose any government-imposed fixed relationship between gold and silver.

Bimetallism is a monetary system in which both gold and silver are officially recognized as money at a government-set exchange rate. For example, the government might declare that 15 ounces of silver equal 1 ounce of gold, as they did in https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/01/the-coinage-act-of-1792-then-and-now-003952";>the Coinage Act of 1792. The difficulty is that international and national market values change, so a rigidly fixed legal ratio can cause one metal to be undervalued and disappear from circulation.

The broader lesson is an argument for https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/SoundMoneyReview-2026.pdf";>free markets and limited government.

The best way to counter government interference in currency and markets is to allow competition among currencies. Let people use whatever money they choose, so everyone remains free to make their own decisions about contracts and commerce.

Gold Is Sound Money

Gold has served as money across civilizations because it was not created by government decree. This sound money was https://www.academia.edu/145853249/On_The_Origins_of_Sound_Money"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">chosen in the marketplace.

Smith understood this. The precious metals became preferred media of exchange because of their rarity, durability, uniformity, portability, and divisibility. Those qualities have not disappeared. A gold coin remains gold regardless of the government in power, the central banker at the podium, or the number of new Federal Reserve Notes issued into circulation.

Federal Reserve Notes are fiat currency. Their purchasing power depends on political management, central-bank policy, and public confidence. Gold is a tangible asset with a long monetary history, no counterparty risk, and value recognized around the world.

De-dollarizing does not mean abandoning the dollar for everyday transactions. It means reducing dependence on a currency that can be expanded at will by institutions that have repeatedly shown a willingness to dilute it.

https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>Buying physical gold is one practical way to do that.

Gold offers an opportunity to preserve wealth outside the banking system, outside the Federal Reserve’s printing press, and outside the reach of monetary policy experiments. It is not a promise to pay. It is payment itself.

For those who believe in sound money, free markets, and https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joshua-d-glawson_goldwinsmith-socialism-politics-activity-7503803482357886977-Bfij"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">individual liberty, owning gold is more than an investment decision. It is a declaration of monetary independence.

Gold ETF vs Physical Gold - What GLD Shareholders Own vs Metal in Hand - Annual Fee Drag, Counterparty Risk, Collectibles Tax, and IRA Rules - Money Metals

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

A gold ETF trades like a stock, but is designed to track the price of gold. Physical gold is the metal itself. Both rise and fall with https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>the gold price. However, only one of these assets is still yours if the financial systems collapse.

That is a small yet incredibly important difference. It changes what you pay each year, what you owe the IRS, and whether you can put your hands on the metal.

This guide compares the two on the points that settle the gold ETF vs physical gold question. What do you actually own? What does each one cost over the years? How are the two assets taxed, how fast can you sell, and how does each one work inside a retirement account?

What a Gold ETF Actually Is

A gold ETF is a trust that holds bullion and sells shares in it. You buy those shares in a brokerage account, the same way you buy a stock in the stock market. The share price will move with the gold spot price.

The two biggest funds are SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU). Similar but smaller funds include GLDM and SGOL.

Here is the part that gold investors have to note about gold ETFs. While they do provide exposure to the gold price, they do not give you real ownership of gold. You own a piece of a trust that owns gold. The trust holds the title to the bars. You simply hold a share of the trust.

Some gold ETFs do not even hold metal. Some simply track gold futures. Others hold shares of mining companies, which move with mining profits and not just with gold.

To be clear, that does not mean the gold is not there. GLD publishes a list of the gold bars held by the trust, including identifying details for individual bars, and makes independent inspection reports available. The important distinction is ownership and access. The trust owns the bullion, while ordinary investors own shares and generally cannot redeem those shares for the underlying gold.

Nevertheless, if you want a fund backed by real bullion, check the fund documents before you buy. Ensure that what you buy will actually fit your strategy.

Can You Trade ETF Shares for Real Gold?

For almost everyone, no.

GLD shares can only be turned in for metal in blocks called Baskets. One Basket is 100,000 shares. Only Authorized Participants can redeem them, and those are large broker-dealers under contract with the fund. https://files.spdrgoldshares.com/spdr-cms/2025-10/GLD_Prospectus_10042022_as_filed.pdf";>The GLD prospectus puts it plainly: shareholders who are not Authorized Participants “will only be able to redeem their Shares through an Authorized Participant.”

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239561/ishares-gold-trust-fund";>IAU works the same way. Its shares “are not redeemable from the Trust except in large aggregated units called Baskets,” and only authorized participants may redeem them.

So when someone asks which gold ETF is backed 100% by physical gold, the answer misses the point. Several funds are fully backed by bullion. That still does not mean you can go get any of it.

What Owning Physical Gold Actually Means

Physical gold is a coin or a bar that belongs to you. It does not have a fund sponsor, trustee, or custodian that stands between you and the metal.

You can buy it in a few forms:

https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/coins";>Gold coins struck by government mints, such as American Gold Eagles or Canadian Gold Maple Leafs
https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold/bars";>Gold bars in sizes from one gram to a full kilo
Gold rounds made by private mints, which usually carry lower premiums

You also have to decide where to keep it.

Home storage is private and free, but it comes with a lot of risk and usually some costs. Home safes come with the risk of theft, house fires, or other natural disasters. There is also the cost of buying a secure home safe, which can become very expensive.

A bank safe deposit box can be cheaper for small metal holdings. However, the box is not insured by the bank and you can only access it during bank hours. A https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-gold-storage";>private depository charges a yearly fee, insures the metal in full, and keeps it out of the banking system.

None of those options is free of tradeoffs. An ETF hides this decision from you. Physical gold makes you face it.

Gold ETF vs physical gold at a glance

	Gold ETF	Physical gold
What you own	A share of a trust	The metal itself
Yearly cost	Sponsor fee, charged every year	None, unless you pay for storage
Upfront cost	Broker commission, if any	Premium over spot
Counterparty risk	Sponsor, trustee, custodian	None, unless you store with a third-party
Speed of sale	Seconds, during market hours	One to three business days
Can you take delivery	No, for retail investors	It is already in your hands
Long-term tax rate	Up to 28%	Up to 28%
Retirement account	Any brokerage IRA	Self-directed precious metals IRA
Privacy	Held in your brokerage record	Higher
Best suited for	Short-term trades and rebalancing	Long-term wealth insurance

The real cost comparison: yearly fees vs one-time premiums

Most comparisons stop at one line: the ETF is cheaper. That might be true for the first year, but it can often change after that.

What a gold ETF costs you every year

GLD charges a sponsor fee of 0.40% of net asset value per year. IAU charges 0.25%.

The fee is not billed to you. The trust pays it by selling gold. Your share count stays the same, but the gold behind each share slowly shrinks. You lose ounces every year without making a single trade.

Here is what that drag adds up to, assuming the fee stays flat:

Holding period	GLD at 0.40%	IAU at 0.25%
1 year	0.4%	0.2%
5 years	2.0%	1.2%
10 years	3.9%	2.5%
20 years	7.7%	4.9%
30 years	11.3%	7.2%

These figures are for illustration. They show the cost of the fee alone and ignore the gold price, which affects both options the same way.

What physical gold costs you once

Physical gold has one main cost: the premium over spot. You pay it at purchase, and you pay it once.

Let’s look at an example. Imagine you buy a one-ounce gold coin at a 4% premium. That 4% is your cost of entry.

Ten years later, you still own that same full ounce. Even thirty years later, you will still own that ounce, unless you sell it. Nothing falls off along the way. All that changes is what the coin is worth given the current gold spot price.

You do give back part of the spread when you sell. That is because dealers buy below spot. If you use a depository or a bank safety box, you will pay a fee each year. Home storage costs you the price of a safe, and potentially insurance, but you have much more control over what you spend.

Where the lines cross

Run those two cost curves side by side and the usual advice flips.

A one-time 4% premium beats a 0.40% yearly fee at about year eleven. After that the gap keeps widening. Hold for thirty years and the ETF fee costs you nearly three times what the premium did.

Short holds favor the ETF. Long holds favor the metal. Anyone who tells you one is simply cheaper has not asked how long you plan to hold it.

Counterparty risk: the chain between you and the gold

Every gold ETF share sits at the end of a chain. Walk it in order:

You own a share.
The share is a claim on a trust.
The trust is run by a sponsor.
A trustee handles the paperwork.
A custodian holds the bars in a vault.
In some cases, sub-custodians hold part of the metal in vaults the trust does not control directly.

Each link is a firm that has to do its job. Most of the time that works. However, people are often drawn to gold because it’s something they can hold onto that does not depend on any third party.

A gold ETF lives inside the financial system. It settles through brokers, clears through exchanges, and depends on custodians. That’s not a problem when markets move normally. However, when markets suffer severe setbacks, it often falls apart. In contrast, gold often thrives in those times precisely because of its self-sufficiency.

Physical gold in your possession has no chain at all. It is the only form of gold ownership with zero counterparty risk. That is the whole argument, and it is a narrow one, but it is the argument that matters most to long-term holders.

Liquidity: how fast can you actually get your money?

Gold ETFs win on speed. You can sell in seconds while markets are open, and the cash lands in your account on the normal settlement schedule. That is a real advantage, and no honest comparison should dodge it.

However, there is a common claim that physical gold is hard to sell. That is not necessarily true, even though it is often repeated in forum threads and gets repeated as fact.

Here is how selling actually works. You can call a dealer and sell over the phone. You can start an order online through an online exchange.

The dealer then locks in your price at that moment. You ship the metal, insured.

Payment goes out once the metal arrives and is verified. Start to finish, that is usually a few business days.

Common coins and standard bars are the easiest to sell. Odd sizes and obscure products take longer and fetch wider spreads. As you get into the market, it is often best to stick to well-known products and you will not have a liquidity problem.

There is one more wrinkle. ETFs only trade when the exchange is open. If a crisis breaks out on a Saturday, it will result in your shares being frozen until Monday. Money in your safe is not subject to this.

So, here is the honest summary. The ETF is faster, and physical gold is not illiquid. Those are two different claims, and most comparisons blur them together.

Taxes: both get hit as collectibles

This is where a lot of ETF investors get an unpleasant surprise.

The IRS treats gold as a collectible. According to https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409";>IRS Topic 409, “net capital gains from selling collectibles (such as coins or art) are taxed at a maximum 28% rate.” That is well above the 15% or 20% rate most long-term stock gains receive.

The surprise is that this applies to bullion-backed gold ETFs too. These funds are set up as grantor trusts, so the IRS looks through the share to the gold behind it. Sell GLD at a profit after holding it for years and you can face the same 28% ceiling you would face on a gold coin.

So one of the assumed advantages of the ETF is not an advantage at all. On taxes, the two are close to a wash.

The paperwork also looks a bit different. When you sell ETF shares, the sales are reported by your broker via a 1099-B form. Dealers report a physical sale only when it crosses a specific IRS threshold. Those thresholds depend on the product and the quantity.

This is general information, not tax advice. Rates and rules change, and your own situation may differ from typical situations often addressed online. Talk to a tax professional before you sell.

Holding gold in an IRA: ETF shares vs physical bullion

Both belong in a retirement account. They just get there by different roads.

Gold ETF shares go in any ordinary brokerage IRA. You buy them like any other holding. There is no special custodian and no extra paperwork.

Physical gold needs a https://www.moneymetals.com/programs/iras";>self-directed precious metals IRA. A qualified custodian administers the account, and the metal is held at an approved depository. The bullion also has to meet IRS purity rules. https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/ira-accepted-precious-metals";>Gold must be at least .995 fine, which rules out some popular coins, including South African Krugerrands and pre-1965 U.S. silver.

The tradeoff is simple. The ETF route is easier to set up. The physical route gives you metal you can take delivery of as an in-kind distribution when you retire. If the point of holding gold is to end up with gold, that matters.

Do gold ETFs track the gold price exactly?

They follow the gold price closely. However, it is not a one-to-one following.

A gold ETF’s share price follows its net asset value, and that value is the fund’s gold minus the yearly fee. Because the fee comes out every year, the fund’s return trails gold itself by a small amount. Over one year, that gap is barely visible. Over twenty years, it becomes a very noticeable difference.

Share prices can also drift above or below net asset value when markets are stressed. It is usually small and short-lived, but it means the price you get is set by the market for the shares, not purely by the gold.

Physical gold tracks spot in its own way. You pay a premium going in and give up a spread coming out. In between those moments, though, you continue holding the same amount of gold value.

Here’s an easy way to sum it up: the ETF tracks the price of gold; the metal is the thing that is being priced.

So which one should you own?

The answer depends on your financial goals.

Buy the ETF if you are trading or rebalancing. Maybe you move in and out of positions. Maybe you reset your allocation every quarter, or you just want gold exposure inside a brokerage account you already have. In those cases the ETF’s speed is worth the yearly fee.

Buy physical gold if you are holding for years or decades. The math on fees favors the metal over long periods. So does the absence of counterparty risk. If gold is the part of your portfolio meant to survive a crisis, it should not be a share in a trust.

In a retirement account, pick based on what you want at the end. Shares are simpler to hold. Physical bullion can be distributed to you as metal.

Many investors hold both, and that is a reasonable answer. Use the ETF for the part of the position you may trade. Use physical gold for the part you never plan to sell. The two jobs are different, and one product does not have to do both.

If you decide the metal is what you are after, you can compare current products and premiums on our https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/gold";>gold bullion page.

Frequently asked questions

Neither is better across the board. A gold ETF is cheaper and faster for short holds and active trading. Physical gold can become more cost-effective over long holding periods, depending on premiums and storage costs. Your holding period and your reason for buying decide it.

You do not own metal, you own a share of a trust. You cannot take delivery. The sponsor fee eats into your position every year. And the fund depends on a sponsor, a trustee, and a custodian all doing their jobs.

Several funds, including GLD, IAU, GLDM and SGOL, are backed by allocated bullion held in vaults. Full backing is not the same as access. Retail shareholders in these funds still cannot redeem their shares for metal.

Not as an ordinary investor. GLD redemptions happen only in Baskets of 100,000 shares, and only Authorized Participants can process them. The practical path is to sell your shares and buy bullion with the proceeds.

It is slower, not harder. A dealer locks your price when you call or place the order online, and payment usually clears within a few business days. Widely traded coins and standard bars sell the fastest.

In most cases, yes. The IRS treats both as collectibles, with long-term gains taxed at a maximum rate of 28%. Bullion-backed ETFs are structured as grantor trusts, so the collectibles rate reaches through to the shareholder. Ask a tax professional about your own situation.

While Everybody Obsesses About Rate Hikes, Federal Spending Marches Along Unabated

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

While everyone obsesses over the possibility of a quarter-point interest rate hike, the U.S. government keeps adding to its https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/20/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-005151";>massive $40 trillion debt.

The Trump administration ran a $166.8 billion deficit in August, according to https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Monthly Treasury Statement. That drove the fiscal 2026 budget shortfall to $1.97 trillion, virtually the same as through the same period last year.

To put the numbers into perspective, for every dollar the federal government has received in revenue this year, it spent $1.41, meaning 28.9 percent of fiscal ’26 federal outlays have been paid for with borrowed money.

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The August deficit was significantly (52 percent) lower than the August 2025 deficit, and many mainstream media outlets breathlessly reported it as a “shrinking” deficit. But calendar shifts skew the numbers.

When accounting for August spending pushed back into July, driving the biggest monthly budget shortfall since the COVID era, the August deficit rises to $248 billion, $7 billion higher than August 2025.

Uncle Sam also enjoyed the benefits of lower tariff refunds, boosting August revenue.

Total government receipts came in at $360.03 billion. That included a net $12.84 billion in tariff receipts. It was the first month of positive tariff revenue since April.

Tariff refunds totaled $10.54 billion, down from $33.38 billion in July.

With one month remaining in fiscal 2026, total government receipts stood at $4.85 trillion. That’s 3.3 percent higher than through the same period in 2025.

The real problem continues on the spending side of the ledger.

The Trump administration blew through $526.83 billion last month, even with some August Social Security and Medicare payments going out in July. Factoring in the calendar effects, the federal government spent around $608 billion last month, slightly lower than the $689 billion spent in August 2025 (another month impacted by calendar effects).

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/fyaug26spending.png"; width="700" height="486" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

With one month remaining, the Trump administration has spent $6.81 trillion, a 2.2 percent increase over the same period in 2025.

A 2.2 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?

In fact, there were some cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill (along with spending increases).

The increased spending comes despite cuts to the EPA and the Department of Education, along with staffing reductions that are now showing up in the data. Lower disaster spending also helped moderate spending levels through the first two months of fiscal ’26.

Looking at the big picture, the spending trajectory is up. Even with all the hype about DOGE and some lip service to cutting spending during the early days of the Trump administration, the U.S. government spent just over $7 trillion last year. That’s an average of $583.3 billion per month or $19.2 billion per day.

And now there's a war.

According to the latest CBO forecasts (which tend to assume best-case scenarios), net outlays will run at $7.449 trillion in FY2026, $7.772 trillion in FY2027, and $8.151 trillion in FY2028.

Despite some non-specific talk about “spending cuts,” there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas.

The Cost of the Debt

The federal government got a little relief in the form of lower interest expense in August.

In August, the Treasury forked out $97.7 billion in gross interest on Treasury debt securities. That was down from $117.57 billion in July.

According to a Treasury Department official, the drop in interest expense reflected changes in inflation accruals.

August interest payments pushed total interest expense to $1.27 trillion with one month remaining in fiscal ‘26. That’s up about 13 percent compared to the same period in fiscal ’25.

Interest on the national debt cost $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025. That was up 7.3 percent over 2024.

Net interest outlays (interest expense – interest receipts) were $86 billion in August.

Through the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the federal government spent more on interest on the debt than it did on national defense ($876 billion) or Medicare ($979 billion). The only higher spending category is Social Security ($1.5 trillion).

Much of the debt currently on the books was financed at very low rates before the Federal Reserve started its hiking cycle. Every month, some of that super-low-yielding paper matures and must be replaced by bonds yielding much higher rates.

This brings us back to all the hoopla over a possible Federal Reserve rate hike. Everybody is obsessing about what Warsh & Co. may or may not do and ignoring the $40 trillion elephant in the room. Quite frankly, the next $1 trillion in debt is almost certainly more significant than a quarter-point hike in rates.

And when you combine an ever-growing Debt Black Hole with rising rates, you have a recipe for real trouble – which is precisely https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/11/the-fed-will-hike-or-it-wont-it-really-doesnt-matter-005195";>why I think even if the Fed does hike, it will be one-and-done.

If only people worried as much about the debt as they do the mechanizations of the central bank, maybe we could make some headway.

But that doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

When people say the spending is unsustainable, it feels like an understatement. In fact, it’s fair to call https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/26/the-us-government-is-insolvent-yes-that-matters-004791";>the federal government insolvent.

However, very few people in the political class seem the least bit interested in tackling the problem. The bad news is that at some point, the problem is going to tackle them.

Namibia in the Process of Building Its Initial Gold Reserves

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Namibia wants gold, and it’s launched a program to get it.

While https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/03/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-005182";>many countries are expanding their gold reserves, the South West African nation is in the process of building its own gold holdings for the first time.

Last March (March 24, 2026), the Bank of Namibia launched a program to build gold reserves through a domestic purchase program, inking a deal with QKR Namibia Navachab.

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The central bank will reportedly accumulate gold on a “phased basis” from local production using Namibian dollars.

According to a statement released at the time, the agreement creates a process for the “structured purchase” of domestically produced gold, “in line with international reserve management standards and the Bank’s long-term strategic objectives.”

Bank of Namibia Governor Ebson Uanguta said establishing a gold reserve aligns with several central bank objectives of safeguarding macroeconomic stability and promoting national economic interests.

“This agreement represents an important step in advancing the Bank’s reserve diversification strategy. Gold continues to play a critical role as a store of value and a hedge against global uncertainty. By partnering with domestic producers, we are not only strengthening our reserves but also supporting local value creation and economic development.”

According to a report by Namibian Mining News, the gold accumulation plan is “currently in full swing” and represents “a strategic hedge for long-term national stability.”

The goal in phase one is to establish gold holdings making up 3 percent of the country’s international reserves, roughly N$1.74 billion. As of July, the country had accumulated 8,574 troy ounces of gold valued at N$573.4 million.

To reach the 3 percent goal, the Namibian central bank will need to purchase another 17,147 ounces of gold, assuming no significant price change. That’s just over one-half of a tonne. Completing phase 1 will create a gold reserve of around 25,721 ounces (0.8 tonnes).

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Bank of Namibia Deputy Governor Nicholas Mukasa said that once the central bank completes phase 1, the central bank will reevaluate and determine the next steps forward.

“We want to, first of all, focus on phase one and then, in the first quarter of next year, we can sit as an institution and decide and say, look, fine, we are now at the 3 percent target that we wanted for phase one. What do we do now in phase two?”

While we’re not talking about large amounts of gold, the move is another sign pointing toward gold’s growing importance in global finance.

Year to date, central banks have accumulated an additional 130 tonnes of gold, about 30 tonnes less than through the same period last year. The primary difference between 2025 and 2026 is that there has been more selling this year.

Last year was the fourth-largest expansion of central bank gold reserves on record. The all-time high was set in 2022 with 1,136 tonnes. It was the highest level of net purchases on record, dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.

The fact that small countries that have not historically held gold are now systematically building reserves reveals that gold fever is spreading.

Bond Vigilantes Smell Blood in the Water...

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down. The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead… and potentially much more.

What an interesting macroeconomic picture is being painted at the moment.

I’m afraid it will be “interesting” not in a “well, that’s fascinating” way, but something closer to the old Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.”

There’s a lot I could cover in this regard, but much of it can be summarized by the observation that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is busily talking https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/treasury-department-announces-even-bigger-bond-buyback-market-shrugs-005192";>Treasury bond yields down… while Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is just as busily talking Treasury bill yields up.

And it increasingly looks like both are going to be disappointed in the results.

For his part, Bessent has been challenging the market to a duel on bond yields, and the market is taking up the challenge. As I https://x.com/Brien_Lundin/status/2098039733142147379?s=20"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">posted on X last week:

https://x.com/Brien_Lundin/status/2098039733142147379?s=20"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Blood-in-the-water-X-Brien-Lundin.png"; width="800" height="629" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

As that blood drips into the water, the sharks are getting more numerous and excited. Consider the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield:

https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/10-Year-Yield-Futures--1-.jpg"; width="800" height="739" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

There’s a bullseye on 5%, and the market usually gets what it wants.

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Moving to the other end of the curve, Warsh might get his higher rates even without resorting to the rate hike that everyone now expects. Given President Trump’s promise last week of a cool $5,000 payment to every adult citizen (at an estimated $1.2 trillion cost), it’s likely that vigilantes demanding higher returns won’t be limited to bonds but bills as well.

Regardless, with diesel prices soaring to record highs and other inflationary flashpoints becoming evident in last week’s CPI report, even I have to acknowledge that Warsh will likely post a quarter-point rate hike next week to rebuild some credibility for the central bank.

But the math still doesn’t work for any kind of an extended rate-hike campaign.

And in fact, outside of the most recent spate of price weakness in gold, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/10/debasement-trade-gains-ground-as-nations-reassess-dollars-bonds-and-gold-005191";>bond yields and the gold price have been rising hand-in-hand. I featured a chart of this in last week’s Golden Opportunities, showing how the two have been largely positively correlated since late June.

This correlation isn’t a good sign for either Bessent or Warsh, because it evidences the market’s doubt regarding the future value of the dollar.

In addition, as I’ve been writing and saying recently, I think gold and bonds are sniffing out some trouble ahead. A 5% 10-year Treasury yield looms directly ahead, and that could be a trigger point for a very significant equities sell-off. That bubble has been searching for a pin for some time, and this just might be it.

As I https://x.com/Brien_Lundin/status/2098926416188297461"; target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://enews.jeffersoncompanies.com/q/usgI2Ldtu_a7YHJj0X1NPnLzM4EUVU5uULAZcOJU1RFRkFOLkdMRUFTT05AaW5kZXBLlbmRlbnRsaXZpbmdidWxsaW9uLmNvbcOIviO67SgwcLIMWVqmZWEZ0bohuQ&;amp;source=gmail&ust=1789499188073000&usg=AOvVaw1Ze5VbGETzoTqvCN8_ptaM" rel="noopener">posted recently on X:

https://x.com/Brien_Lundin/status/2098926416188297461"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/10-year-yields-Brien-Lundin.png"; width="800" height="414" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

In the meantime, the metals have been victimized by the emotional swings of the Western traders, and with the odds of a Fed rate hike this week rising toward 100%, gold is trading down again today.

However, that’s to be expected as a rate hike looms. And, importantly, these instances have typically marked take-off points for gold.

As long-time readers will remember, I called the gold bottom in December 2015 as the Fed’s first rate hike was days away. From that point on, gold and silver soared, and many of our junior stock picks multiplied four to five times in value over the next six months.

In this case, I predict we’ll soon have a resumption of the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/09/05/brien-lundin-debt-debasement-and-why-golds-bull-market-has-support-005186";>long-term gold bull market.

To get Brien Lundin’s ongoing commentary on the markets at no charge, https://goldnewsletter.com/golden-opportunities-sign-up/?tblci=GiBdY-MYH1-nD-WW6UXCXAtHBPIEdPpDc50r48qPeOICrCDKuWUow8jry8SFw-EvMLzYPQ"; target="_blank" rel="noopener">click here to subscribe to his free Golden Opportunities newsletter.

The Strange Selloff in Gold

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Gold and silver are starting the new week under pressure, extending a correction that has now been running for several weeks.

Gold finished last week around https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price";>$4,360 an ounce, down roughly 1.6%, while silver fell almost 1.5% to https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price";>around $65.18. That marked gold’s third consecutive weekly decline.

And selling picked up again Monday morning. Gold slipped below $4,350 in early trading, while silver fell back toward the $63 area as traders braced for what could be another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this week.

But the strange part is what’s driving the selloff.

The Middle East situation continues to deteriorate, oil has surged above $100 per barrel, inflation remains stubbornly high, and investors are becoming increasingly nervous about both stocks and bonds.

Those would normally sound like pretty good reasons to own gold.

Instead, metals traders are currently focused on the Fed.

Higher oil prices threaten to push inflation higher, dramatically increasing expectations that the Fed will raise rates again at its meeting Wednesday. Higher rates, mainly in the short run, tend to make life more difficult for gold and silver.

So we have the somewhat perverse situation where escalating war, soaring energy prices, and renewed inflation fears are hurting gold because Wall Street believes those problems will force the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

Oil remains at the center of the story. Brent crude traded above $107 Monday morning while U.S. crude hovered above $102 following further disruption to Saudi energy infrastructure and escalating fighting around key Middle Eastern shipping routes.

That is bad news for consumers. Energy ultimately works its way into the cost of transportation, food, manufacturing, and just about everything else.

But beneath the recent weakness in gold, there are some remarkably strong signs of investment demand.

Global gold ETFs attracted roughly $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow ever recorded. Holdings rose by 121 metric tons to an all-time high.

China’s central bank also added about 650,000 ounces of gold during August, its biggest monthly purchase in nearly three years and its 22nd consecutive month of reported buying.

In other words, while short-term traders are selling gold because they're worried about what Kevin Warsh might say Wednesday, some of the world's largest investors and central banks continue accumulating the metal.

That distinction matters.

Gold and silver can certainly fall further if the Fed delivers another rate hike and signals that still more tightening is coming. Silver, as usual, may be even more volatile.

But rising oil prices, persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, enormous government debt, and continuing central-bank gold purchases haven't gone away.

The Fed can move interest rates around. It can't make those problems disappear.

Kalshi Launches Paper Gold Trading

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 EST

Kalshi is getting into the gold business.

Kind of.

The catch is it doesn’t involve any actual gold.

The prediction market exchange recently announced the launch of a gold perpetual futures contract, colloquially referred to as a “perp contract.”

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Unlike traditional futures contracts, perps never expire and don’t require anybody to hold the underlying asset.

The Kalshi calls its gold contract GOLDPERP. According to the company’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filing, one contract provides price exposure to the equivalent of one troy ounce of gold. Kalshi allows trading in increments as small as 0.001 contract, effectively giving exposure to the price of 0.001 ounce of gold.

It breaks down like this:

1 contract = 1 oz of exposure
0.1 contract = 0.1 oz
0.01 contract = 0.01 oz
0.001 contract = 0.001 oz

In effect, if gold is $4,000 per ounce, a 0.001-contract position represents $4 of gold exposure.

Contract prices move in minimum increments of 10 cents per ounce. Investors can trade fractions of a contract as small as 0.001, providing exposure equivalent to one-thousandth of an ounce of gold.

This is the most important part. The contract is entirely cash-settled, and there is no mechanism to deliver or receive physical gold as there is in a traditional futures contract.

Kalshi isn’t required to hold any gold either. It determines funding Monday through Friday at 10 a.m., using a complex formula involving the spot price of gold

If GOLDPERP has averaged below spot, the rate is negative, and shorts pay longs and vice versa.

For instance, if gold is trading at $4,000 and the funding rate at 10 a.m. came in at +0.01%, you would owe roughly 40 cents for one full contract. ($4,000 × 0.0001)

The short on the other side of the contract would receive the money.

Kalshi earns money on both sides of the transaction, charging a fee whenever you open or close a position.

Traditional futures exchanges are not pleased with the move, worried it could disrupt their model. The CME Group filed a lawsuit against the CFTC to block approval of Kalshi’s perp contracts, arguing they qualify as swaps, not futures.

A Kalshi spokesperson said the company introduced the gold futures contract due to the growing interest in commodities, and he seems to understand the appeal in this day and age.

“Metals, especially gold and silver, have a story to tell because of inflation.”

But have I mentioned that there is no metal involved in any step of this transaction? Not one ounce!

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It is purely a cash contract with the price of gold as a reference.

The Kalshi contract creates an avenue for synthetic exposure to the gold price without purchasing gold at all. Leverage magnifies this effect. For example, an investor can obtain, $15,000 of gold exposure while posting only a fraction of that amount as collateral.

This could potentially disrupt the market because GOLDPERP creates another avenue for speculative gold exposure without the need for corresponding physical bullion demand. This could channel more money into the paper market and away from physical bullion. As a GATA email put it, it could “divert more gold investment money from metal to the imaginary.”

However, some analysts believe sophisticated investors on the short side of a perp contract may hedge their exposure by buying COMEX futures, ETFs, or physical gold.

If you want to gamble on the gold price, a Kalshi perp contract may be a good go-to, but don’t imagine you are investing in gold. You own nothing more than a bet.

Precious Metals News & Analysis - Gold News, Silver News from Money Metals Exchange

The Fed Meeting Isn’t the Main Story

A One-and-Done Rate Hike

The $40 Trillion Constraint

All Roads Lead to Inflation

Namibia Builds Its First Gold Reserve

Walking Liberty Half Dollar Value - 90% Silver Melt Value vs. Collector Premium - 1921-D and 1938-D Key Dates, the 1917-S Obverse Mintmark, and Record Auction Prices - Money Metals

What Is a Walking Liberty Half Dollar Worth Today?

Silver Melt Value

Collector Value vs Bullion Value

Walking Liberty Half Dollar Specifications

Mint Marks and Mintmark Locations

Key Dates and Rare Walking Liberty Half Dollars

What Determines Walking Liberty Half Dollar Value?

Rarity

Condition and Grade

Mint Mark

Collector Demand

How to Grade a Walking Liberty Half Dollar

Good to Fine (G-F)

Extremely Fine to About Uncirculated (XF-AU)

Mint State (MS)

Key Wear Points

Beware of Counterfeits

Record-Breaking Auction Sales

Conclusion

To Hike or Not to Hike? This Is the Question! (But Does It Really Matter?)

Articles Mentioned During the Show

Goldwin Smith’s Dire Warnings About Paper Money Matter More Than Ever

What Does a Fiat Dollar Mean?

Legal Tender Is Not Consent

Gold and Silver Were Chosen by the Market

The Limits of Monetary Management

Bimetallism and Currency Competition

Gold Is Sound Money

Gold ETF vs Physical Gold - What GLD Shareholders Own vs Metal in Hand - Annual Fee Drag, Counterparty Risk, Collectibles Tax, and IRA Rules - Money Metals

What a Gold ETF Actually Is

Can You Trade ETF Shares for Real Gold?

What Owning Physical Gold Actually Means

Gold ETF vs physical gold at a glance

The real cost comparison: yearly fees vs one-time premiums

What a gold ETF costs you every year

What physical gold costs you once

Where the lines cross

Counterparty risk: the chain between you and the gold

Liquidity: how fast can you actually get your money?

Taxes: both get hit as collectibles

Holding gold in an IRA: ETF shares vs physical bullion

Do gold ETFs track the gold price exactly?

So which one should you own?

Frequently asked questions

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While Everybody Obsesses About Rate Hikes, Federal Spending Marches Along Unabated

The Cost of the Debt

Namibia in the Process of Building Its Initial Gold Reserves

Bond Vigilantes Smell Blood in the Water...

The Strange Selloff in Gold

Kalshi Launches Paper Gold Trading