Since the Israeli government ordered a direct strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, discussion of a response has been widespread. This has led to much speculation, regarding the scale of the response, what Iran may choose to hit and even in some social media circles, the idea that Iran is planning the equivalent to an unprovoked “terrorist attack” against the Israelis.
Last Monday, the Israeli leadership ordered an unprecedented series of airstrikes that not only violated Syrian national sovereignty, but also represented a direct attack on Iranian soil, by blowing up Iran’s consulate in Damascus. Seven high-ranking Iranian officials were murdered in the strike, including one of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s top commanders; two of those killed were generals in the elite Quds Force. A total of 13 people were murdered in the strike, including Syrian and Lebanese nationals. This strike triggered a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) emergency meeting, where the Russian Federation took a strong stance in condemning the strike as a provocative violation of international law, while the US vetoed a resolution on the issue, in defense of Israel.
That same Friday, during the national occasion of Quds Day — which occurs on the last Friday of each Ramadan — the IRGC openly warned that Israel’s attack “won’t go unanswered“. The US government has since tried to distance itself from the attack, which it claims it had no knowledge of, and suggested that even American targets could be struck throughout the region in retaliation. In US and Western corporate media, stories about the anticipated Iranian retaliation, have led some to the idea that Iran will unleash the equivalent of a terrorist attack in response. This is because the mainstream media is replete with distortions and consistently fail to give any context as to why Iran is forced to respond to this incident.
Iran Is A Rational Actor, But It Needs To Ensure Security For Its People
The temptation has been too great for many commentators, unable to resist the Zionist-favored narrative that the current tensions somehow only started last Monday (which in this case alone is enough to justify an Iranian response given the gravity of the Israeli attack) but, as usual, the truth of the situation is in the details.
For years Iran and Israel have been engaged in what some have called a “shadow war“, in which the Israelis would perform sabotage against Iranian infrastructure and employ agents on behalf of their intelligence agency, the Mossad, to carry out covert operations against Iran. Iran affiliated shipping, oil infrastructure, its civilian nuclear program, military targets and even high ranking officials, have all been targets during this “shadow war”. In retaliation, Iran has also taken its own measures, notably against Israeli intelligence targets in locations such as Northern Iraq, as well as Israeli-linked vessels in both the Persian Gulf and Red Sea areas.
Israel has always justified its attacks on Iran and Iranians, by stating that Tehran backs groups like Yemen’s Ansarallah, along with Hamas and Hezbollah. Yet there is almost no mention of Israel’s frequent provocative acts that amount to multiple declarations of war, along with the fact that the Israeli government has also repeatedly threatened conflict with the Islamic Republic.
Just during the past four months, Israel has launched illegal airstrikes that have assassinated high-ranking Iranians three separate times. First, in late December, the Israeli airforce launched strikes on Damascus which assassinated Seyyed Razi Mousavi, one of the IRGC’s top advisors in Syria. In response to this, in January the Iranians ordered a series of missile strikes, which including the targeting of a Mossad headquarters in Iraq and the demonstration that Iran could launch missiles far enough to target Tel Aviv from Iranian territory, should they decide to.
Iran’s retaliation in January was a clear attempt to demonstrate strength and deter future Israeli attacks. Yet late that same month the Israeli Air Force launched an even more devastating attack in Damascus, targeting the densely populated Mezzeh neighborhood, murdering Syrian civilians, two Syrian soldiers and 5 IRGC members. After this, in early February, crucial civilian gas pipelines were blown up inside Iran, in what The New York Times revealed was an Israeli sabotage operation. What has to be understood here is that Tehran never responded to either of these Israeli attacks, instead opting to pursue a policy of regional de-escalation.
When Israel used an AI-controlled machine gun, with the aid of terrorist operatives and explosive charges, to assassinate Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was traveling in a civilian car in Tehran. This assassination occurred in November of 2020 and represented an act of war on Iranian soil, yet the Islamic Republic never responded to his assassination in any notable or official capacity. The Israeli Mossad has been accused by Iran of assassinating multiple nuclear scientists on their soil, dating back to the early 2000s.
What has been detailed above adds a little context to the intensive campaign of espionage, assassinations, and other provocative attack policies pursued against Iran by the Israeli government. The Israeli government’s usage of spy rings, dangerous sabotage operations against civilian infrastructure, and terrorist attacks, have been ongoing for decades. On top of all of this, the Israeli government has been the number one cheerleader for a US government’s war against the Iranian government, openly opposing to 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, which eventually led to its collapse and the imposition of sanctions.
Despite the shadow war and the frequent acts of war on the other side, Iran has never launched a direct strike against Israel. However, this recent attack on the Iranian Consulate was a turning point and could potentially trigger a major regional escalation.
Iran is faced with an impossible situation. While Tehran has clearly adopted a position of containing the Gaza-Israel war, so that it will be a victory for the Palestinians without spilling over into the wider region, it must now act in order to protect its own sovereignty and security. Iran sent a clear message to Israel in January, in which it demonstrated its capability to strike the Zionist regime directly. In response, Israel launched two major attacks, it decided to strike even harder in Damascus and also launched a sabotage mission on crucial civilian infrastructure in Iran. When Iran did nothing in response, Israel decided last Monday to call the IRGC’s bluff by attacking the Iranian embassy in Syria. The Israelis just de-facto declared war on Iran, crossing all conceivable redlines for any State’s security.
Just a couple of days ago I was warning about how the acceptance of Israel’s bombing of Iran’s consulate was destroying centuries-old norms around the sanctity of diplomatic facilities and… here you are 🤷♂️ https://t.co/Ks5dcbmZDb
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) April 6, 2024
While Tehran has always been strategic, targeted, and in most cases showing restraint by responding with less force against both the US and Israel, this time has the potential to be a tougher response. If Iran does not carry out a retaliatory attack which is at least proportionate to the strike the Israelis committed, it’s deterrence and credibility in the region is gone. Iran understands that all of its enemies will interpret the lack of a response, or a weak response, to be a sign of weakness. The leadership in Tel Aviv will also read it as such.
At this current moment in time, Israel is not prepared to sustain an air campaign that would in any way damage or set back the Islamic Republic, yet Iran is prepared to rain ballistic missiles and drones down on Israel. If Iran delivers a lackluster response on Israeli-held territory, it is very likely that Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will see this as an invitation to directly launch strikes on Iran. The reason for this, is because Netanyahu will ultimately understand, from a weak Iranian retaliation, that direct attacks on Iranian territory will come a little real cost. Yet, if the IRGC strikes a high-level target and inflicts real damage, the Israeli reaction could go either way.
In the event that any significant attack is launched against Israel, what needs to be understood is that Iran has never acted in an irrational way in their responses to Israel, and any attack at this point would be out of absolute necessity — and, of course, has been provoked. Commenting on this very topic, on the occasion of Quds Day, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, promised the Iranian response against Israel would come, but stressed that it would be strategic. Nasrallah also added that depending upon the Israeli retaliation to Iran’s retaliation, the entire regions forces should be on high-alert, as the Israelis could be planning to open up a regional war.
There is a game of political chess that is currently underway in West Asia, the results of which could be catastrophic, but the origins of which should be understood. The claims about Iran seeking to open up a wider war are factually false, every step of the way the Iranians have taken measures to de-escalate regional tensions since the beginning of the genocide in Gaza on October 7. Despite the calls from the entire region for them to act, Iran has not fired a single munition at the Israelis and refused to ever respond to their countless acts of aggression with a direct strike on Israeli-held territory. If Iran responds in a way which includes a direct attack, this is out of necessity and not choice.
Thank you for the cogent explanation of the situation between Israel and Iran.