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USDA lowers 2018 corn, soybean production estimates

The USDA has lowered its outlook for 2018 corn and soybean production slightly. This report doesn’t reflect recent weather damage and further reductions might be made in November’s update.

As of October 1st, the USDA has corn at 14.778 billion bushels, potentially the second largest on record, a little bit less than in September, but up 1% on the year, with a record average yield of 180.7 bushels per acre, also down slightly from last month, and harvested area of 81.767 million acres. Currently, the USDA projects the highest number of ears on record in the 10 objective yield states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Record average yields are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, along with Alabama, Kentucky, New York, and Tennessee. In 2017, corn totaled 14.604 billion bushels with an average yield of 176.6 bushels per acre and harvested area of 82.703 million acres.

Soybeans are projected at a record 4.690 billion bushels, also down slightly from a month ago, but up 6% from a year ago, with a record average yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, up fractionally on the month, and harvested area of 88.348 million acres. The USDA’s data for the objective yield states of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota indicates a record high pod count. New record yields are anticipated in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota, in addition to Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. 2017 production totaled 4.411 billion bushels with an average yield of 49.3 bushels per acre and harvested area of 89.522 million acres.

The next set of production numbers is out November 8th at Noon Eastern/11 Central.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Illinois: Corn: 2.3 billion bushels, compared to 2.201 billion in 2017; record average yield of 212 bushels per acre, compared to 214 a month ago and 201 a year ago; harvested area of 10.85 million acres, compared to 10.95 million last year; Soybeans: 709.5 million bushels, compared to 611.9 million in 2017; record average yield of 66 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 10.75 million acres, compared to 10.55 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 1.003 billion bushels, compared to 934.2 million in 2017; record average yield of 194 bushels per acre, compared to 192 a month ago and 180 a year ago; harvested area of 5.17 million acres, compared to 5.19 million last year; Soybeans: 355.8 million bushels, compared to 320.76 million in 2017; record average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 54 a year ago; harvested area of 5.93 million acres, compared to 5.94 million last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.601 billion bushels, compared to 2.606 billion in 2017; record average yield of 204 bushels per acre, compared to 206 a month ago and 202 a year ago; harvested area of 12.75 million acres, compared to 12.9 million last year; Soybeans: 606.34 million bushels, compared to 566.58 million bushels in 2017; record average yield of 61 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 57 a year ago; harvested area of 9.94 million acres, unchanged from last year

Michigan: Corn: 309.7 million bushels, compared to 300.51 million in 2017; record average yield of 163 bushels per acre, compared to 165 a month ago and 159 a year ago; harvested area of 1.9 million acres, compared to 1.89 million last year; Soybeans: 112.21 million bushels, compared to 96.475 million in 2017; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 42.5 a year ago; harvested area of 2.29 million acres, compared to 2.27 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.423 billion bushels, compared to 1.48 billion in 2017; average yield of 191 bushels per acre, compared to 191 a month ago and 194 a year ago; harvested area of 7.45 million acres, compared to 7.63 million last year; Soybeans: 385.5 million bushels, compared to 384.275 million in 2017; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 47.5 a year ago; harvested area of 7.71 million acres, compared to 8.09 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 475.7 million bushels, compared to 552.5 million in 2017; average yield of 142 bushels per acre, compared to 138 a month ago and 170 a year ago; harvested area of 3.35 million acres, compared to 3.25 million last year; Soybeans: 277.44 million bushels, compared to 292.545 million in 2017; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 49.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.78 million acres, compared to 5.91 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.804 billion bushels, compared to 1.683 billion in 2017; record average yield of 195 bushels per acre, compared to 198 a month ago and 181 a year ago; harvested area of 9.25 million acres, compared to 9.3 million last year; Soybeans: 350.3 million bushels, compared to 326.025 million in 2017; record average yield of 62 bushels per acre, compared to 62 a month ago and 57.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.65 million acres, compared to 5.67 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 619.4 million bushels, compared to 554.01 million in 2017; record average yield of 190 bushels per acre, compared to 188 a month ago and 177 a year ago; harvested area of 3.26 million acres, compared to 3.13 million last year; Soybeans: 299.4 million bushels, compared to 251.955 million in 2017; record average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a month ago and 49.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.99 million acres, compared to 5.09 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 851.4 million bushels, compared to 736.6 million in 2017; record average yield of 172 bushels per acre, compared to 173 a month ago and 145 a year ago; harvested area of 4.95 million acres, compared to 5.08 million last year; Soybeans: 280.5 million bushels, compared to 241.23 million in 2017; record average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 43 a year ago; harvested area of 5.61 million acres, unchanged from last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 537 million bushels, compared to 509.82 million in 2017; record average yield of 179 bushels per acre, compared to 179 a month ago and 174 a year ago; harvested area of 3 million acres, compared to 2.93 million last year; Soybeans: 109.5 million bushels, compared to 101.65 million in 2017; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 47.5 a year ago; harvested area of 2.19 million acres, compared to 2.14 million last year