The manufacture of credibility?

Israel and Iran bombed each other like three weeks ago and now oil prices are low enough that the SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] is looking at buying

That is from Matthew Zeitlin.  One read of the current equilibrium is that both Iran and Israel have shown they really do not want to escalate, or perhaps are not able to escalate.  Arguably that was less obvious two months ago.

It is hard to establish such credibility unless things get really hairy, and then both parties pull back from the brink.

I don’t think that is the only way to read recent events.  An alternative would be “We are witnessing widening concentric circles of violence, and the next round is going to be a doozy.”

Maybe, but so far markets seem to believe the more optimistic scenario.