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USDA raises 2019 winter wheat crop projection

The USDA has increased its 2019 winter wheat production estimate because of better than expected yields.

The USDA has the crop at 1.291 billion bushels, up 1% from June and 9% above 2018’s total of 1.184 billion, with an average yield of 51.8 bushels per acre, compared to 50.5 a month ago and 47.9 a year ago. Harvested area is seen at 24.924 million acres, compared to 24.742 million last year. Those better than expected yields have helped to cancel out some of the concerns about lower protein content, disease issues, and a slow start to the harvest, all because of weather.

The guess for hard red winter was up 1% on the month at 804.477 million bushels, with a fractional increase for soft red winter to 259.173 million and a 2% rise for white winter wheat at 226.976 million bushels.

Comparisons for winter wheat production in applicable Brownfield states:

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 37.17 million bushels, compared to 36.96 million in 2018; average yield of 63 bushels per acre, compared to 65 a month ago and 66 a year ago; harvested area of 590,000 acres, compared to 560,000 last year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 17.42 million bushels, compared to 18.46 million in 2018; average yield of 67 bushels per acre, compared to 69 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of 260,000 acres, unchanged from last year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 36.75 million bushels, compared to 35.72 million in 2018; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 74 a month ago and 76 a year ago; harvested area of 490,000 acres, compared to 470,000 last year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 28.2 million bushels, compared to 30.68 million in 2018; average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 470,000 acres, compared to 520,000 last year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 51.41 million bushels, compared to 49.49 million in 2018; average yield of 53 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 49 a year ago; harvested area of 970,000 acres, compared to 1.01 million last year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 26.88 million bushels, compared to 33.75 million in 2018; average yield of 64 bushels per acre, compared to 63 a month ago and 75 a year ago; harvested area of 420,000 acres, compared to 450,000 last year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 39.42 million bushels, compared to 31.68 million in 2018; average yield of 54 bushels per acre, compared to 52 a month ago and 48 a year ago; harvested area of 730,000 acres, compared to 660,000 last year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 11.22 million bushels, compared to 14.2 million in 2018; average yield of 66 bushels per acre, compared to 65 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of 170,000 acres, compared to 200,000 last year