Market News

Weather forecasts weigh on corn

 

Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling, posting week to week losses. The stalemate over tariffs with China continues to limit export demand for U.S. beans, even as Brazil’s supply gets tighter and their prices move higher. Still, Brazil won’t be able to supply enough beans to meet China’s needs fully, so Beijing will probably eventually have to return to U.S. beans, at least to some degree. Paraguay could pick up some of the slack. U.S. sales to Argentina for crush purposes could see an increase. The domestic fundamentals remain neutral to a little bearish, because of the available supply. As long as corn planting picks up steam in the next couple of weeks, the likelihood of a substantial acreage switch is low. Soybean meal was mixed, adjusting old crop/new crop spreads and bean oil was lower, following beans.

Corn was modestly lower on commercial and technical selling, also losing ground from last week. Forecasts have a warm-up in some key U.S. growing areas and soil moisture levels are generally good, which should allow for planting progress. The USDA’s next set of crop progress and condition numbers is out Monday afternoon. Brazil’s second crop is in good condition. Brazil’s second crop is the larger of the two and the source of most of their exports. According to wire reports, some previously announced U.S. sorghum sales to China were switched to an unknown destination. Ethanol futures were lower. The USDA’s attaché in Ukraine says 2017 corn production was 24.1 million tons, down 14% from 2016, with 2018 projected at 28.6 million tons.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling, with Minneapolis posting the largest week to week decline. The overall fundamental outlook is bearish, even with drought or near drought conditions in the southwestern Plains and near-term planting delays in the northern U.S. Plains into Canada. New USDA supply and demand numbers are out May 10th. Indonesia bought 30,000 tons of Black Sea origin milling wheat. The USDA’s attaché reports 2017 wheat production was 26.1 million tons, nearly steady with 2016, but 2018 spring wheat planting was slower than normal because of snow and cool temperatures.