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Is there a Speaker Pelosi 2.0?

Should Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) be elected Speaker of the House again?  I’ve been asked this question a dozen times in the last few days, with the question almost always followed by the asker’s multiple reasons why or why not Pelosi deserves to control the House.

At best, I’m ambivalent.  If I step back, cowering as an apolitical observer, part of me says Pelosi’s best days are behind her, no one really wants to return to the days of my-way-or-the-highway politics, she’s 78, she’s been in Congress going on 32 years, and it’s time she step graciously aside, allowing the next generation to take the reins while she accepts her accolades and place in history.  Another part of me is convinced that in closed-door meetings with House/Senate, GOP/Democrat, Congress/White House honchos – all white guys of a certain age – no one on the House roster is as experienced or tougher than Pelosi, as long as your position is her position.

It’s almost certain Pelosi will get her caucus nomination to be Speaker when the House Democrats meet November 28 to nominate their leadership for the new Congress.  It all pivots on how smoothly that process occurs.  The question is whether she garners the 218 votes to win the gavel when the entire House membership votes January 3, and opponents emerge.

While the California lawmaker has been saying the right things about the agenda for the 116^th Congress – priorities on infrastructure investment, controlling prescription drug prices and the “very strategic” use of subpoenas in checks/balances vis a vis the Trump White House – she’s also hedging her bets.  She says her party is dedicated to a “more open Congress with accountability to the public, seeking bipartisanship where we can find it.  Stand your ground where we can’t.”

Media reports indicate she’s falling back on the old big stick school of politics.  Her message is straightforward:  I’m the best qualified/most experienced to protect Obama era victories, like the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and the Democrats need a woman at the table to deal with Trump.

However, at least two dozen Democrats, evenly split between freshmen and incumbents, publicly declared opposition to Pelosi retaking the Speaker’s gavel during their midterm election campaigning.  A separate group of 15 or so Democrats is actively seeking support to put forward a different Speaker candidate on November 28, when the caucus meets to nominate leadership candidates.  There are likely others who share these views.  As different names emerge, Pelosi, like a heat-seeking missle, holds one-on-one meeting with that person.  So far, whatever gets said in those meetings has worked.

If the media is to be believed Pelosi’s surrogates are “reminding” other House Democrats there’s a price to be paid if they don’t fall in line, including crappy committee assignments and no seat on the plane winging overseas on a fact-finding mission.  Pelosi supporters say they’re tired of the growing “Never Nancy” contingent, and vow to ensure fence-sitters understand “what the costs are…of not cooperating.” They say they’ll counter any move to elect a substitute candidate by denying the needed 218 votes to “any other candidate not named Nancy Pelosi,” reports The Hill.

The political complexion of the House Democrat caucus in the 116th Congress will be younger, more progressive, perhaps more inclusive, but certainly less bound to the old guard, which critics argue Pelosi represents.  Even with more than 125 women joining the 116^th Congress, it appears gender is less a qualification to be Speaker than it was when Pelosi smashed that glass ceiling in 2007.

There are few politicians as smart as Pelosi, and those Democrats ambivalent about her candidacy contend she needs to acknowledge the chamber’s dramatic shift in age, attitude and demographics, and adjust her thinking and political MO accordingly.

The “strongest” argument for Pelosi as Speaker in the new Congress is that no viable opposition has come forward.  Keeping in mind literally anyone can be Speaker of the House – the Constitution does not mandate a sitting member of Congress be elected – January 3 begins to look more and more of a crap shoot.  Right now, the job pretty much belongs to Pelosi, but that very well could change if the November 28 caucus meeting gets ugly and a solid alternative allows her/his name to be put forward on the House floor.