Several readers have reached out to me in recent days about the apparent change in Japan Airlines first class award availability. I wanted to recap what’s going on here, and share my take.
In this post:
Japan Airlines first class award availability trends
Historically Japan Airlines has been one of the most consistent airlines when it comes to releasing first class award availability across the Pacific, especially if you’re willing to book last minute. Here’s the trend I’ve generally seen over time:
- The airline often (but not always) releases one award seat when the schedule first opens, just under a year out
- The airline consistently releases all but one first class seat as an award within a couple of weeks of departure
- The airline sometimes releases more award seats between when the schedule opens and two weeks before departure, but that’s not all that consistent
For those of us who love following award trends, Japan Airlines has been awesome, simply put. You can always see how full a flight is in first class, and therefore predict the odds of first class award space becoming available. Well, at least until recently…
Japan Airlines isn’t releasing last minute award space
Within the past week or so, Japan Airlines has seemingly stopped releasing last minute first class award availability. This isn’t just the case for partner programs like Alaska Mileage Plan and American AAdvantage, but also applies to Japan Airlines’ own Mileage Bank program.
As mentioned above, the airline was incredibly consistent in the past, but not anymore. Best I can tell, the airline actually isn’t releasing any transpacific first class award availability within two weeks of departure. Just to give some examples:
- On June 21, both JL3 and JL5 from New York to Tokyo have seven of the eight first class seats still for sale (yes, each flight!), but there’s no award availability
- On June 19, JL61 from Los Angeles to Tokyo has five of eight first class seats still for sale, but there’s no award availability
I’m working on trying to figure out what’s actually going on here. It’s possible that this is a glitch, and it’s also possible that this is intentional. It’s possible that this is just a short term measure, or it could be that Japan Airlines has had a change in strategy.
I sure am curious what the motive here is. Does the airline just expect flights across the Pacific to be packed this summer, and doesn’t think it’s worth releasing award space? Has the airline done some sort of calculations on the economics of releasing award space last minute, and has decided it’s no longer worth it, especially with transpacific airfare being as expensive as ever?
There’s only one other motive I can think of when it comes to no longer releasing last minute first class award availability. Given how Japan Airlines was so consistent with releasing award space, I can’t help but wonder if the airline found some people booking refundable first class seats in advance, and then canceling them close to departure to guarantee award space?
It goes without saying that’s a big no-no that ruins this game for all of us. That has a huge impact on a carrier’s bottom line. I have no reason to believe this specifically happened here, though I know of a couple of instances where this happened with other airlines, and caused them to change their practices. Often it’s not even individuals, but rather mileage brokers and “consolidators” selling premium tickets at a steep discount.
Award space across the Pacific is rough…
Bigger picture, I can’t help but just reflect on how terrible award availability currently is across the Pacific. Of course we’re seeing a huge boom in demand compared to during the pandemic, and it takes airlines some time to ramp up service.
However, the unique challenge in Asia is that pre-pandemic, Chinese carriers were capacity dumping in the United States, leading to low fares and plentiful award availability. They’re operating a tiny fraction of their pre-pandemic capacity — a total of just 12 weekly flights, due to bilateral flight caps. As a result, award availability is limited, and airfare is very high.
Back in the day it was easy to snag a transpacific first class award. Until recently, Japan Airlines was the only reliable option, and now that’s not even available, it seems. Cathay Pacific used to be another great option across the Pacific in first class, but the airline has at most one flight per day to the United States with first class, compared to 10 flights per day pre-pandemic.
And as someone who still has a sizable balance of Korean Air SkyPass miles from back when the program was a Chase Ultimate Rewards transfer partner, don’t even get me started on the lack of first class award availability there…
Bottom line
Japan Airlines has historically been very consistent with releasing unsold first class seats as awards within a couple of weeks of departure. Unfortunately that trend has recently changed, and the airline no longer seems to have plentiful award availability, even if first class is mostly empty.
Here’s to hoping that this is a temporary measure or glitch, and that this isn’t the new normal for Japan Airlines transpacific award availability.
Have you noticed this change in Japan Airlines first class award availability? What do you make of it?
Maybe the business class is overbooked and they need to do some technical upgrade in the gate
Hi, does anyone have any idea about JL ticket redeem with AS miles? I have reedem a one-way ticket SFO-HND, NRT-SIN. AS website shows all has been ticketed and i have the booking reference for both AS and JL. When i log in to JL website to manage booking, it shows flight being ticketed too. However, when i call in the call center, they are telling me that the first portion of the flight have...
Hi, does anyone have any idea about JL ticket redeem with AS miles? I have reedem a one-way ticket SFO-HND, NRT-SIN. AS website shows all has been ticketed and i have the booking reference for both AS and JL. When i log in to JL website to manage booking, it shows flight being ticketed too. However, when i call in the call center, they are telling me that the first portion of the flight have not been ticketed. This sounds very strange to me as i was able to select seats for that flight too.
I believe it is because through JAL mileage bank directly you can waitlist first class at their 355 days out window. I see the 1 seat release often available but never more than that. You can waitlist more seats though, and I think if people are doing that and those get honored eventually anytime after the schedule is released, then you wouldn’t see much active open space later on. I’m guessing then the airline can...
I believe it is because through JAL mileage bank directly you can waitlist first class at their 355 days out window. I see the 1 seat release often available but never more than that. You can waitlist more seats though, and I think if people are doing that and those get honored eventually anytime after the schedule is released, then you wouldn’t see much active open space later on. I’m guessing then the airline can much better control their options knowing what is waitlisted and what is selling day by day.
I'm wondering if they're overselling other cabins due to the very high demand and are therefore leaving first open for op ups so they can oversell further?
I don't think it's really anything more than JAL expecting Japan to be very busy this summer given its the first summer Japan is fully open. I'm flying to Japan early next month and even economy tickets are much higher than they've been in the past (thankfully work is paying for mine). If we get into winter or next summer and the trend continues then I'd start getting a little worried.
Love the refundable first ticket cancellation theory.
Could they be overselling business class and keeping F seats available to agonisante over bookings?
I grabbed 2 F tickets out of BKK yesterday for next week. Granted it’s just into Tokyo.
Oddly enough, I am flying to Tokyo and Singapore from the United States in business and first class on Japan Airlines on all of my flights in two weeks. Booked the entire trip with my Alaska miles. I really lucked out as it seems like now it’s impossible to find anything in business or first class with them.
I have been searching the last couple weeks and most availability is HND-SFO. Couple seats avail over the next week as well as into ORD. End of schedule I have seen some as well.
The reason why we are not able to see award tickets is because some Chinese brokers hold these seats (it seems that they figure out some way to hold it with the seat still for sale) and then they sell those seat from US to China. If you follow those brokers 'Wechat' Moment, they are aggresively advertising these discounts premium class tickets everyday. Right now the demand from US to China is huge due to...
The reason why we are not able to see award tickets is because some Chinese brokers hold these seats (it seems that they figure out some way to hold it with the seat still for sale) and then they sell those seat from US to China. If you follow those brokers 'Wechat' Moment, they are aggresively advertising these discounts premium class tickets everyday. Right now the demand from US to China is huge due to summer holiday and these brokers can earn a lot just from doing this.
The same thing applies not just to JAL, but also to ANA. Lufthanse, Swiss, Etihad and so on. Another tool the brokers rely heavily on is Air Canada miles, which enables them to book flexible ticket, once someone wants to buy the ticket, they cancel that and rebook it immediately. Recently we were not able to use Air Canada to find Etihad business class award tickets and I believe the reason is this.
I am a Chinese blogger and I have written three postings since March (Feb/Mar is when this behavior starts running crazy) disucussing this issue. I really hope more people know what's going on right now and let Airlines take some action. If not, I have a hunch that no one is able to get trans-pacific premium class award tickets unless buying award tickets from these brokers.
Wow! This is news to me!!! Any idea how these brokers can grab the award seats and sell them??? That makes sense then why it has become so difficult to find availability.
For those can be booked by Aeroplan, it's very straightforward by booking the flexible award. Once someone wants the ticket they hold, they can simply cancel the one (which will return to the pool immediately) and rebook one by using whatever Aeroplan account. That's why it's super hard to see ANA premium class award tickets since April. April was the time when flights between China and Japan got significantly recovered.
As for JAL, what...
For those can be booked by Aeroplan, it's very straightforward by booking the flexible award. Once someone wants the ticket they hold, they can simply cancel the one (which will return to the pool immediately) and rebook one by using whatever Aeroplan account. That's why it's super hard to see ANA premium class award tickets since April. April was the time when flights between China and Japan got significantly recovered.
As for JAL, what I have learned so far is that they have a way to hold class 'A', which makes no award ticket availablibility shows up, but the cash ticket in class 'F' is still showing for sale. That's what I have learned so far. I didn't have too much detail and not sure if it 100% correct. But what is happening now is many brokers are selling JL first class award tickets right before departure.
What is your blog link?
Surprised you do not mention the ongoing European War in Ukraine Lucky. It is affecting airlines indirectly who once used Russian airspace, completely changing flight times, aircraft availability and since the pandemic the globalisation that helped intercontinental air travel flourish seems to be going into reverse with the West then a Russian/Chinese sphere in the East.
A gentle reminder that "across the Pacific" spans a much greater area than a narrow focus on routes US to Japan. Like, Japan to Australia, NZ etc.
JAL premium award space from Australia to Japan has completely dried up into 2024. Why? Because they are selling those seats for cash! Demand for this route has gone through the roof since Japan joined the rest of the world in lifting the last of its Covid...
A gentle reminder that "across the Pacific" spans a much greater area than a narrow focus on routes US to Japan. Like, Japan to Australia, NZ etc.
JAL premium award space from Australia to Japan has completely dried up into 2024. Why? Because they are selling those seats for cash! Demand for this route has gone through the roof since Japan joined the rest of the world in lifting the last of its Covid restrictions. Even Qantas is scrambling to add capacity and new routes to Japan to capitalize on pent-up so-called 'revenge travel'.
Don't expect things to get easier for at least a year or so.
As a frequent flyer from China, i know there are TON of tickets that were held by lots of people running BOTs to held tickets and resell it under the table. They’ll cancel the held tickets until last minute if they would be able to sold. This is definitely a huge rule breaker and gamer to the entire award ticket system.
Any evidence on Chinese capacity dumping?
In 2019 I took 12 (once for each month) r/t transpacific flight ranging from xiamen, hainan, sichuan, delta and united. In all 22 flights. Business class was at 80-85% full. In the 2 economy flight, it was fully booked. So how is it dumping when airlines, including american carrier running their J at that high capacity? Let’s not forget how many backpackers are going to SEA in Y.
Any evidence on Chinese capacity dumping?
In 2019 I took 12 (once for each month) r/t transpacific flight ranging from xiamen, hainan, sichuan, delta and united. In all 22 flights. Business class was at 80-85% full. In the 2 economy flight, it was fully booked. So how is it dumping when airlines, including american carrier running their J at that high capacity? Let’s not forget how many backpackers are going to SEA in Y.
Delta were selling rt in Y close to thanksgiving in US for <500USD. You people like free market capitalism and says competition is good for consumers but like to whine also. What a wimp
You can always fill a cabin, that's not a useful metric. The question is at what price, and whether that's sustainably profitable for the airline...
You need to look at yield, not how full a cabin is.
ANA J was completely full within a 24 hour time span when they had the mistake fare not too long ago.
I just returned from Tokyo to SFO on Japan Airlines. Originally booked Business Class and thought I would take a chance and call three or four days before our flight to see if we could upgrade to First Class for which we were able to. I have flown all over the world on dozens of diferent airlines and JAL was one of the best planes and experiences I have ever had!
I've flown JAL PE and Business Class SFO-Tokyo mulitple times and First Class once. All pleasant flights. While vastly better than any US carrier, compared to their Asian rivals I didn't think JAL J and F were a big deal. I had heard so many great things about JAL F before I flew them and was frankly not that impressed with my JAL F flight: food was good (not great), service was good (not great),...
I've flown JAL PE and Business Class SFO-Tokyo mulitple times and First Class once. All pleasant flights. While vastly better than any US carrier, compared to their Asian rivals I didn't think JAL J and F were a big deal. I had heard so many great things about JAL F before I flew them and was frankly not that impressed with my JAL F flight: food was good (not great), service was good (not great), the seats were good (but old and not great), the pajamas were a disappointment (low quality material and lousy design), the amenity kit was very good. Lounge was just average. So frankly I don't have a problem if I never fly JAL J again.
CORRECTION: So frankly I don't have a problem if I never fly JAL F again.
I’m with you. I felt my J flight from MEL-NRT was meh. F NRT-LAX was good but not nearly as great as touted. I prefer CX F to JL F.
I am not surprised at all.
I've flew in/out from Japan 3 times since last November in J, 2 times in ANA & once in JL. J was still pretty empty for my first trip on ANA (2022 Nov,) but for the other two trips (2022 Dec, 2023 Feb) the J cabin is totally full, and I would say that Y is also very full, maybe 90% full (by a "glance" to the cabin...
I am not surprised at all.
I've flew in/out from Japan 3 times since last November in J, 2 times in ANA & once in JL. J was still pretty empty for my first trip on ANA (2022 Nov,) but for the other two trips (2022 Dec, 2023 Feb) the J cabin is totally full, and I would say that Y is also very full, maybe 90% full (by a "glance" to the cabin behind and how many people was passing me.)
I don't think it's a glitch, it's just too many people are flying and FED has been printing money so everybody is somewhat rich now.
I booked a tour of Japan for April 24 out of LAX using AA miles for business class. Then followed award space available for almost two months from Hiroshima to Nice again using AA miles and there were multiple JL first class awards showing everyday. When I could actually book none of the 8 awards showing were actually available…the Tokyo- LHR portion in JL first being the culprit…I have tried twice to report it to...
I booked a tour of Japan for April 24 out of LAX using AA miles for business class. Then followed award space available for almost two months from Hiroshima to Nice again using AA miles and there were multiple JL first class awards showing everyday. When I could actually book none of the 8 awards showing were actually available…the Tokyo- LHR portion in JL first being the culprit…I have tried twice to report it to AA and not once have I got a reply and everyday the awards show as available.. very frustrating.
Maybe you can have a look into Alaska Airlines as well. For months now it is impossible to find award space on BA from Johannesburg to LHR and onwards to Mexico City (as you can make a stopover in Londen). Even economy is not possible
My son and I spent last week in japan and I wouldn’t have said it was saturated with tourists. We flew Ana there and Qantas back in j (LifeMiles and aa miles). Both cabins were full (flying to and from Sydney).
It’s not a matter of cheapening their $25k r/t deals from the USA. If one or two people book those they are most likely corporate accounts or Uber rich. Those people are not...
My son and I spent last week in japan and I wouldn’t have said it was saturated with tourists. We flew Ana there and Qantas back in j (LifeMiles and aa miles). Both cabins were full (flying to and from Sydney).
It’s not a matter of cheapening their $25k r/t deals from the USA. If one or two people book those they are most likely corporate accounts or Uber rich. Those people are not trawling expert flyer for close in availability. “Selling” these seats via the back door of Alaska or aa miles is in fact the best way not to canabilize the actual paid market. They still make money on that empty seat if I pay for it by buying Alaska miles.
People like Ben ruined it for everyone.
It’s true though. All these blogs ruined the points game.
People on tik tok with "travel hacks" ruined this game.
When did you get into the game? Ben has been doing it a long time and availability is still abundant.
Absolutely true! I have mentioned tihs time and again and do not care at all for the daft replies of those like Brodie who fail to acknowledge the damages done by these blogs.
It was a great deal while it lasted.
It’s high season for US travelers. Chances are their economy class cabin is oversold and they don’t wanna give away seats they might have to fill with upgrades…
For Alaska miles, aside from the occasional biz class seat offered by SQ for 100K miles from the West Coast USA to HKG, there are no other reward seats from any airlines from now until June, 2024. CX does not have a single premium seat open from the West Coast to HKG at any given time for as far as I can search. In 2020, right before the pandemic, I held an award tix for...
For Alaska miles, aside from the occasional biz class seat offered by SQ for 100K miles from the West Coast USA to HKG, there are no other reward seats from any airlines from now until June, 2024. CX does not have a single premium seat open from the West Coast to HKG at any given time for as far as I can search. In 2020, right before the pandemic, I held an award tix for travel in November from LAX - HKG in F and HKG to AKL in J for 70K miles but of course that was canceled due to the pandemics. I fear that I will not get that opportunity again, at least not any time soon or for 70K, Alaska miles are not as valuable as they used to be.
I was working on flights for next March - Was watching availability for weeks - Was going to use Asia Miles- Trying to leave out of Boston and flights suddenly dried up - No business was released at all, then checked NYC - Same... Wound up getting tix from ORD - Coming back, same scenario, best I could find was into SFO...
It was like a switch that was turned off - All in all...
I was working on flights for next March - Was watching availability for weeks - Was going to use Asia Miles- Trying to leave out of Boston and flights suddenly dried up - No business was released at all, then checked NYC - Same... Wound up getting tix from ORD - Coming back, same scenario, best I could find was into SFO...
It was like a switch that was turned off - All in all I was able to snag 5 Business seats going out and 3 coming back - Which is GREAT - But not into the airport I wanted - Utilmately used a combination of AA and Asia Miles
JL award flights, Jan 2024, issued Apr ‘23, AA miles:
JFK-BKK F 120k
BKK-NRT J 40k
HND-LGA J 60k
Breaking: it's not April, it's june. ;)
I booked SFO->NRT for Jan24 back in Apr23. That's definitely not a thing anymore.
I’m seeing avail from TYO-SFO in F on the regular the past couple weeks.
Interesting - I never look at return if I can't get there. Do you see it from SFO to TYO? I look at least twice per week, every week.
Japan is arguably the hottest tourist destination in the world right now. I can understand them being cautious about awards.
I have a feeling this is based on demand. Japan in particular has been insane since early Spring and has shown no signs of slowing down. The airlines don't have any motive to release award space - F and J are all selling. Hopefully in the fall it slows down a bit and award space revamps.
I was looking at award seats from Tokyo to the Middle East for July (using AA miles), and I found a few dates where there was Business Class availability on JAL, and some First Class availability as well (JAL has a 77W flight to Bangkok from HND). Well, a day later, that availability vanished on AA. I don't know what happened.
I feel like there's been a decline in JAL award space (at least via AA miles) for the past month or so across the board. So if it's a strategy, I think it's a broader one and not simply about F.
Agreed. Business is gone, too.
JAL's releasing of seats at 2 weeks out never made business sense for them so I'm not surprised if they have eliminated this practice.
Never made business sense? Funny, I always assumed the opposite. Still do.
To release the seats in such a predictable manner when the retail price is $25k rt makes no sense and has undoubtedly cost them revenue. They should release them much more sporadically so as to not cannibalize actual full price-paying customers.
Not just first class, business availability across the pacific has been bone dried. I usually could find some on ana 360 days out but now they are booked up so fast. Japan airlines has very been spaces left. Cathay is absolutely none.
I had the issue later this year of redeeming for first class, then getting a later notice that I was downgraded to biz and there was no first class availability
That just happened to me too. Had booked first in a 777 that was later downgraded to business when they changed to a 787 that didn't have a first class. Was really looking forward to JAL first class.
Yes it is rough transpacific right now for premium class - I felt lucky to get 2 business class JAL seats for cherry blossom time from SFO next March. Booked when window opened via British Airways as I was nervous nothing available via AA or Alaska. No First seats I could find - was easy to get via AA in the past pre-pandemic. ANA availability very limited too. Ended up booking Singapore NRT-LAX on the way home at premium of 123,000/pp KrisFlyer miles for Business
I was just searching JAL this morning LAX-HND, was shocked to only find 1 or 2 F for the next 9 months via AA. Hope this is a temporary glitch.
I'm a desperate man. I'll even take NRT. ;P