Market News

Soybeans, corn continue rally, watching weather

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, rallying solidly after a slow start to the session, as contracts buy back some of the recent losses. Soybeans are watching early U.S. harvest activity, anticipating near-term delays, along with the early planting pace in South America. Brazil is expected to plant record area again this year, but there are questions about Argentine acreage after Buenos Aires raised its export tariff. Weekly export sales were above most pre-report estimates and while shipments are slow, it’s only a couple of weeks into the marketing year. Beans continue to monitor progress, or lack thereof, in tariff talks with China. Soybean meal and oil were supported by commercial buying.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, continuing to bounce back from the recent contract lows. Corn is also watching harvest activity, expecting near term delays in some key U.S. growing areas, especially in the northern Cornbelt. The southeastern Cornbelt is continuing to recover from the effects of Florence. A wetter, cooler weather pattern is expected in more of the region this weekend into next week and some forecasts for October also look generally wet and cool. Weekly export numbers were bullish and Mexico bought 160,020 tons of 2018/19 U.S. corn. Corn continues to monitor the latest round of NAFTA renegotiations with Canada. Ethanol futures were higher.

The wheat complex finished firm on short covering and technical buying, following a two-sided session. About a quarter into the current marketing year, export numbers remain bearish overall, but weekly sales were near the high end of estimates. The trade is monitoring winter wheat planting conditions in the U.S., European Union, and Black Sea region. Coceral, via AgriCensus, lowered its wheat estimate for the European Union to 129.89 million tons, down 9 million from their June projection, because of drought. Wheat is also assessing frost damage in Western Australia and drought conditions in eastern parts of Australia. Jordan is tendering for 120,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat. The USDA’s attaché in Egypt estimates 2018/19 wheat imports at 12.5 million tons, up 1.62% from 2017/18, supplementing domestic production of 8.45 million tons.

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