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CoBank economist says China’s pork prices are rising because of ASF

A livestock economist who has just returned from China says the outbreak of African Swine Fever is starting to impact that country’s pork prices.

Will Sawyer, lead animal protein economist with CoBank, says while the reported pig mortality numbers are not that high, government restrictions on the movement of hogs have affected the supply chain, pushing prices higher.

“They’re up about 15 to 20 percent in just the last month-and-a-half,” Sawyer says. “So we expect that to continue to climb in higher prices.”

He predicts the disease will continue to spread in China throughout 2018, “and we think there’s a good chance that we’ll see more pork being imported into that Chinese market—which is a very good sign and I think the hog futures market is clearly indicating that optimism.”

Even though China is not currently buying U.S. pork, Sawyer says the U.S. should see benefits.

“As the EU and Canada focus on China—as those trade opportunities materialize—that’s a good thing for the U.S. because that give us more opportunities to expand our market share in Japan or Korea or other markets in Asia.”

Sawyer says China faces an uphill battle in trying to control the spread of the disease because of its massive number of hogs.

AUDIO: Will Sawyer