ELECTIONS

Marquette poll: Tony Evers leads Scott Walker 49 percent to 44 percent in governor's race

Patrick Marley and Bill Glauber

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MADISON - Democrat Tony Evers saw a boost in support in a Tuesday poll that put him 5 points ahead of GOP Gov. Scott Walker a month after the two were tied.

The Marquette University Law School survey showed Evers, the state schools superintendent, with 49 percent and Walker with 44 percent. Another 6 percent backed Libertarian Phil Anderson.

Poll director Charles Franklin credited Evers' improvement in the last month to Democratic enthusiasm and Evers' backing from women.

"White college women are very heavily pro-Democratic this year," Franklin told reporters.

Three-quarters of Democrats reported they were very enthusiastic about voting, while 64 percent of Republicans said they were very enthusiastic.

Last month's poll by Marquette showed Walker and Evers tied at 46 percent among likely voters. A poll that month conducted by Suffolk University for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel had Evers ahead of Walker 46 percent to 44 percent, and other polls have given Evers an edge as well.

As he seeks a third term, Walker finds himself in a worse spot than in past races.

"Walker in our polling has been down by one point or maybe in one poll by close to two points, but he has not been down in our data by five," Franklin said.

"I think it’s important to look at the recent post-primary polling. We’ve had Walker down or Evers up by five, by four, by two, tied in our last poll and now Evers up by five. So that’s a bit more of a margin and it’s a bit more of a margin across several different polls by several different pollsters rather than just in our data."

Walker said he expected to be in this position due to Democratic enthusiasm, and suggested voters will come around by the November election.

"We’ve said all along that we’ve got to be prepared for that," Walker told reporters in Wausau. "Now, we’ve shown time and time again when we’ve been down in previous polls, grass-roots organization, getting out and talking to voters can really make a difference. ... I think most people realize Wisconsin is working. We can’t afford to turn back now."

At a stop in Milwaukee, Evers said he was pleased with the results and thought they showed a string of negative ads by Walker have backfired.

"That diversion that he tried to use as a wedge hasn’t worked," Evers said. "The people of Wisconsin know better."

Walker and Evers are far better known, though nearly a third of voters said they don't know enough about Evers to have an opinion of him.

Forty-five percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Walker and 52 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Forty percent had a favorable view of Evers and 29 percent an unfavorable view of him.

Attorney general's race

In the race for attorney general, incumbent Republican Brad Schimel was ahead of Democrat Josh Kaul 48 percent to 41 percent.

That was a reflection in part that the vast majority of voters — 87 percent — didn't know enough about Kaul to have an opinion of him. For Schimel, 24 percent had a favorable opinion, 20 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 56 percent didn't know enough to have an opinion.

State budget

On Wisconsin's finances, 31 percent believe the state budget is in better shape than it was a few years ago, 28 percent believe it is about the same and 29 percent believe it is in worse shape.

Education a key issue

Most voters are pleased with their local schools — 18 percent are very satisfied, 46 percent are satisfied, 17 percent are dissatisfied and 8 percent are very dissatisfied.

A majority of respondents — 57 percent — favored spending more on schools over cutting taxes. Thirty-eight percent saw it the other way and said they favored cutting taxes.

Attitudes toward schools could play a role in the race, given that both candidates are touting themselves as having the best education policies.

Condition of roads

Also at issue in the race is transportation, with Walker saying he has adequately funded highways and Evers arguing better roads are needed.

In the poll, 5 percent called the roads in their area excellent, 30 percent called them good, 32 percent called them fair and 32 percent called them poor. Those ratings are worse than they were a month ago.

Foxconn aid

Nearly half the respondents — 48% — said they did not think the state's incentive package for Foxconn Technology Group's plant in Mount Pleasant was worth it. The company is eligible for as much as $4 billion in state and local incentives.

Thirty-nine percent said they thought the Foxconn deal was worth it and 13% said they didn't know.

Environmental issues

On ecological issues, 59 percent said they thought the environment was more important than economic growth, while 27 percent said economic growth was more important.

In all, the telephone poll surveyed 800 registered voters, including the 614 who consider themselves likely voters. The margin of error ranged from plus or minus 4 points to plus or minus 5.6 points.

Journal Sentinel reporters Mary Spicuzza in Milwaukee and Molly Beck in Madison and Laura Schulte of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin contributed to this report.