Here's one last look at what the candidates for MVP did in 2018, plus how Christian Yelich can still win the Triple Crown
The 2018 season isn't quite a wrap with four teams (Dodgers, Rockies, Brewers and Cubs) slated to play in divisional tiebreakers on Monday. But, for the most part, the candidates for the NL MVP have made their cases. Here’s a look at the top threats for the National League MVP in a race that will likely come down to Christian Yelich and Chicago's Javier Baez -- if Yelich doesn't have it wrapped up already.
Oh, and about that Triple Crown...there's still a chance. Statistics for "Game 163" count in the regular-season tally.
Advanced stats from Fangraphs through Saturday's games.
RELATED:Brewers' Christian Yelich put himself firmly in NL MVP discussion by doing 'special things'
Christian Yelich, Brewers
The traditional stats: 36 home runs, 109 RBIs, .323 batting average, .996 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 7.4 WAR (wins above replacement player), 164 OPS+ (100 is league average), 166 wRC+ (100 is league average), .421 wOBA (basically a more thoughtful way to assess a batter's outcomes; league average is roughly .315)
The narrative: He has two cycles, has helped Milwaukee transform into a full-fledged playoff team and has credible outfield defense to boot. Plus, he leads the league in slugging, OPS, OPS+ and WAR (according to Fangraphs), and he's threatening in other categories. His September was legendary.
Last game: Yelich actually went hitless in a game Sunday, but he did score two runs (and finished 162 games one run shy of NL leader Charlie Blackmon). He also got a nice ovation from Brewers fans after getting subbed out in the eighth.
Could he still win the Triple Crown?
Game 163 statistics count in the regular-season tallies, so there's a chance Yelich could still become the first National League player to lead the league in home runs, RBI and batting average since 1937 -- but he's going to need to homer Monday.
After Nolan Arenado of Colorado went deep twice Sunday, he now has 37 homers, one ahead of Yelich. Yelich also emerged from Sunday two RBI behind Javier Baez for the league lead. Yelich is going to win the batting title in a landslide, so it requires that he at least matches the numbers by those guys -- and they'll both be playing Monday, too, so he'll need to stay ahead. Arenado also has 109 RBI, so Yelich has the added complication of staying ahead of the Rockies slugger, and Rockies teammate Trevor Story also has 36 home runs.
Javier Baez, Cubs
The traditional stats: 34 home runs, 111 RBI, .291 batting average, .883 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 5.3 WAR, 126 OPS+, 130 wRC+, .366 wOBA
The narrative: Exciting player who can make magic happen defensively and on the base paths, not to mention the dish with a gaudy homer count. He’s the best player on the National League’s best team.
Last game: Baez went 2 for 4 with three runs scored as Chicago wrapped a 10-5 win over St. Louis to earn a spot in Game 163 against the Brewers on Monday.
A brief comparison between the two presumed favorites
It's probably going to come down to Baez and Yelich at this point, but Yelich seems to have pulled away.
RELATED:Christian Yelich puts end to MVP debate but Brewers have division crown within reach
RELATED:Where does Christian Yelich's season rank among the best in Brewers history? Dive into the stats
In Yelich's favor: He's got the better offensive numbers and better WAR tally -- by far -- which covers offense, baserunning and defense. He's made enough plays on defense to be considered credible in the outfield, and he's been particularly amazing overall in the second half as the Brewers make a playoff surge. He has the narrative advantage of being the top MVP candidate on a team that wasn't necessarily seen as capable of winning 90 games this year. For voters who value overall production ahead of the positional flexibility, personality and pizzazz of Baez, Yelich is probably the choice.
In Baez's favor: He's the best player on the National League's best team (up until the final two days of the regular season), and he is a dynamic defender who can play multiple infield positions, safely arguable as a higher degree of difficulty than what Yelich does (playing three outfield positions). He does bring an energy and excitement that few players possess. His offensive numbers aren't as eye-popping as Yelich's (though it's no small thing that he has the edge in homers and RBIs), and the Cubs were seen as a slam dunk playoff team coming into the year, but Baez wasn't expected to be the star of the show in Chicago. For voters who value his positional flexibility and perhaps his overall presence in the 2018 MLB consciousness, Baez is the choice.
Others who will merit votes:
Nolan Arenado, Rockies
The traditional stats: 37 home runs, 109 RBIs, .297 batting average, .932 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 5.3 WAR, 131 OPS+, 128 wRC+, .386 wOBA
The narrative: Arenado is a slick-fielding third baseman and a power bat who has routinely been one of the most dangerous hitters on a team strongly contending to make the playoffs. He finished in the top five in the MVP voting each of past two seasons.
Last game: Arenado homered twice, helping the Rockies force a Game 163 for the NL West with the Dodgers and also taking the National League lead in homers.
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
The traditional stats: 36 home runs, 81 RBIs, .257 batting average, .897 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 4.9 WAR, 144 OPS+, 139 wRC+, .376 wOBA
The narrative: Carpenter started the season slowly but has had a remarkable resurgence as the Cardinals have moved into strong playoff contention. He also makes his own salsa.
Last game: Carpenter went 1 for 5 as the Cardinals season came to an end. There was a time when Carpenter was the favorite to win NL MVP, but the Cardinals struggles down the stetch hurt his cause.
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
The traditional stats: 33 home runs, 83 RBI, .290 batting average, .922 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 5.1 WAR, 139 OPS+, 145 wRC+, .390 wOBA
The narrative: After a slow start, Goldschmidt has been a terror, though the Diamondbacks have slipped out of the playoff picture.
Last game: Goldschmidt had one last hit as his team fell to San Diego to close the year. A sluggish September for Goldschmidt and the Diamondbacks took him out of the running for this hardware.
Freddie Freeman, Braves
The traditional stats: 23 home runs, 98 RBIs, .309 batting average, .893 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 5.3 WAR, 140 OPS+, 137 wRC+, .378 wOBA.
The narrative: He was left off this list initially, and while that's probably a mistake, he still figures to be behind the other frontrunners. He's a sweet-swinging standout hitter for the National League East champion Braves.
Last game: Freeman played sparingly in the season finale, going 0 for 1. His team had a great year, and Brant Snitiker is probably going to be Manager of the Year. Freeman is probably a fourth or fifth-place finisher in the MVP voting.
Lorenzo Cain, Brewers
The traditional stats: 10 home runs, 37 RBI, .308 batting average, .815 OPS
The fancy stats (higher is better): 5.6 WAR, 120 OPS+, 125 wRC+, .360 wOBA
The narrative: We know Cain’s defense perhaps makes him the best defender in baseball, and his offensive numbers belie his value. But even though he's been the league leader in WAR almost the whole season (according to Baseball Reference), those numbers will struggle to vault him past others on this list.
Last game: Cain went 1 for 4 as the Brewers finished the year with an 11-0 thumping of Detroit. He's been sensational, but he's probably ticketed for near the bottom of the top 10 in MVP voting.
Pitchers
The race for the National League Cy Young Award is tight, but none of the three top candidates are going to the playoffs, so that narrative wrinkle alone is going to hurt their cause in the MVP voting. But there’s a good chance at least one of these guys will wind up in the top five of the MVP vote. My goodness, deGrom and Scherzer are so good.
Max Scherzer, Nationals: 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 300 strikeouts, 51 walks, 0.91 WHIP, 7.3 WAR
Jacob deGrom, Mets: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 269 strikeouts, 46 walks, 0.91 WHIP, 8.3 WAR
Aaron Nola, Phillies: 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 224 strikeouts, 58 walks, 0.98 WHIP, 5.6 WAR
Let's keep tabs on the batting title, too
For the first time, a Milwaukee Brewers player has won the batting title.
Christian Yelich, Brewers: .323 average
Scooter Gennett, Reds: .310
Freddie Freeman, Braves: .309
Lorenzo Cain, Brewers: .308
Ben Zobrist, Cubs: .308