The scoreboard continues to be unkind to the Brewers; to win the division, four outcomes must go correctly
Updated through games of Sept. 28
The Milwaukee Brewers know they will at least be hosting the Oct. 2 wild-card game, and though they keep winning to keep pace in the division race, the National League Central is still out of reach. Milwaukee needs to win both its final two games and for Chicago to lose its final 2 to win the division outright.
To force a tie for the Central and a one-game playoff Monday, three of those four outcomes must go correctly. And with the Cardinals' backs against the wall, there's a concern they'll be out of the race by Sunday, and thus not pulling out all the stops in the season finale.
Nobody else can catch the Brewers
The magic number to clinch a playoff spot: 0. It's party time, Milwaukee
The magic number to clinch home field in the wild card game: 0. Do you have plans for Oct. 2? The lights might be on at Miller Park.
The number to beat the Cubs for the NL Central: 4. Any win by the Brewers or loss by the Cubs will shrink this number. There are only 4 possible outcomes remaining, so this is a challenge, but if three go right, the Brewers and Cubs would meet for a one-game playoff to decide the division winner. That game would be at Wrigley Field on Oct. 1 (the Cubs own the tiebreaker for home field advantage).
MLB: Live scoreboard | Standings | Wild-card picture
The Brewers are now guaranteed the second-best record in the National League after their 93rd win Friday, but they would still not have any home-field rights after the wild card game. If the Brewers win the wild-card game, they will first be traveling to face the Cubs for the NLDS, beginning Thursday.
The Brewers stand at 93-67, 1 game behind the Cubs for the NL Central lead. Brewers remaining schedule: vs. Detroit (2)
Wins by the Dodgers and Rockies on Friday not helping the cause
Los Angeles Dodgers (89-71, ahead of Cardinals by 2 games for second wild card, 4 behind Brewers): The Dodgers win over the Giants kept them one back of the Rockies in the NL West, but it also put the Cardinals in dire straits -- two games out with two to play. The Brewers want the Cardinals to have as much incentive as possible to beat the Cubs both Saturday and Sunday, but now even with a Saturday win over Chicago, the Cardinals would be eliminated from playoff contention with a Dodgers win. If St. Louis wins to keep its series alive Saturday afternoon, cheer for the Dodgers (who play later in the afternoon) to lose to keep the Cardinals engaged Sunday.
Schedule: at San Francisco (2).
Colorado Rockies (90-70, 1 game ahead of Dodgers for NL West, 3 behind Brewers): Colorado's German Marquez and Kyle Freeland are both very tough pitchers, and Marquez would likely be the one to beat in an Oct. 2 battle. The red-hot Rockies have won seven straight, but the Dodgers are still a game back. It's worth noting if the two teams tie, they'll have to also play an Oct. 1 tiebreaker to determine the West winner, and that could alter pitching options for the Oct. 2 wild-card game. So, if Saturday is a bummer for the Brewers (with the Cubs winning), there's still this potential wrench to root for Sunday.
Schedule: Washington (2)
The Braves are now irrelevant
Atlanta Braves (90-70, clinched East, 3 behind Brewers): The Brewers have clinched a better record than Atlanta, the NL East champ, but it doesn't matter unless the Brewers win the Central.
Schedule: at Philadelphia (2)
It's now or never, St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals (87-73, 2 games out of second wild card): The Cardinals have hit the skids and are pretty much in need of a miracle to make the playoffs now, back two games of the second wild card with two to play. Milwaukee desperately needs the Redbirds to find something behind starter Miles Mikolas on Saturday.
Schedule: at Chicago Cubs (2)
Chicago Cubs (94-66, leading Central, 1 game ahead of Brewers): Chicago's three straight wins have kept the Brewers from getting back to even in the Central, even if Milwaukee continues to rack up victories.
Schedule: vs. St. Louis (2)
Ed Sheeran watch - there might be a glitch here
Miller Park is slated to host pop star Ed Sheeran on Oct. 23, though that's also slated to be Game 1 of the World Series. The Brewers have said they can move the date of that concert, and fans of Sheeran should probably know that the odds won't favor Milwaukee to reach the World Series (much to Brewers' fan chagrin).
In the World Series, the team with the better overall record gets home field advantage. Right now, every American League contender has a better record than the Brewers except the Cleveland Indians (90-70, 3 games behind Brewers), who have already clinched the AL Central.
But there's perhaps a catch to consider. If the Brewers are in the World Series at all, regardless of whether they host Game 1, they probably won't want a concert stage tearing up the Miller Park field three days before Game 3. More than that, the Brewers are probably going to need to give some advance notice to Sheeran's camp about whether to move it. The NLCS could go as late as Oct. 19. It seems possible if the Brewers do work deep into the playoffs, that concert could get moved no matter what.