Haudricourt: Brewers can't afford to fall short of starting pitching again this September
WASHINGTON – Last September, the Brewers ran short of experienced starting pitching, and that issue played a big role in falling one game short of the playoffs.
You don't forget missing the postseason by a mere victory after playing 162 games. And the Brewers hope a move they made Friday evening will prevent that ultimate frustration from happening again.
Adding Washington's struggling Gio Gonzalez before the midnight deadline for postseason eligibility certainly can't be compared to Houston's last-second acquisition of Justin Verlander a year earlier, a move that resulted in the Astros winning their first World Series. But, as your mother used to tell you, do the best you can.
On a weak market for starting pitching, Gonzalez was the best starter available on Aug. 31. Having failed to acquire Cincinnati's Matt Harvey a week earlier, Brewers general manager David Stearns was determined to pick up another option for a rotation that struggled for much of August.
Even with one-run pitching performances in the final two games of the month, the Brewers had a 5.33 team earned run average, last in the National League. Considering how poorly they pitched for the most part, the Brewers were fortunate to post a 13-13 record in August.
Why did the St. Louis Cardinals blow by the Brewers with a 22-6 record in August? Well, it didn't hurt that they led the league with a 2.75 team ERA. The Chicago Cubs went 18-10 for the month with a 3.37 team ERA, sixth in the NL.
The Brewers' pitching staff was roughed up in a big way in the 13 losses, yielding an average of 8.9 runs per game. Throw out the aberrant 21-5 loss in Los Angeles on Aug. 2, and the pitchers still allowed an average of 7.9 runs in the other defeats.
What made the August pitching collapse tougher to take for Brewers fans was that it followed the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, which passed without Stearns picking up a starter. Never mind the outcry from the outside world that the team had to pick up a pitcher to be a legitimate contender.
The July 31, 2017 trade deadline also expired without the Brewers adding a starting pitcher. They took a run at Chicago White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana, who instead was acquired by the Cubs, a development that cost Milwaukee in the long run.
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The Brewers thought they had enough starting pitching entering last September, only to discover quickly that was not the case. Everything changed during a three-day period from Sept. 6-8, when four-year disappointment Matt Garza finally pitched his way out of the rotation and Jimmy Nelson suffered a shoulder injury that ended his season.
Garza had been pitching badly and losing games for weeks (7.69 ERA in six starts in August) yet kept getting the ball, a decision that greatly contributed to the Brewers falling one game short of the playoffs. A 7-1 loss in Cincinnati on Sept. 6 was Garza’s fourth in a row and fifth in six starts, and manager Craig Counsell finally pulled the plug on him.
Two days later, diving back to first base after collecting a base hit against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, Nelson caused massive damage to his right shoulder, an injury so severe that he has yet to pitch in a game. It was a cruel development for both the Brewers and Nelson, who pitched seven shutout innings against Washington, with 11 strikeouts, in his previous start and tacked on five more against Chicago before leaving that game.
The Brewers knew Nelson’s injury was a major blow to their playoff chances, forcing them to go with “bullpen games” every fifth or sixth day the rest of the way, covering nine innings with relief pitchers. Jeremy Jeffress got one of those starts, rookie Aaron Wilkerson another and, on the penultimate day of the season, when the Brewers finally were eliminated from the wild-card race, the assignment went to Junior Guerra, who had not started a game since late July.
The Brewers had high hopes for rookie Brandon Woodruff, who did some good work in August and was very sharp in a Sept. 2 outing against Washington (7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) that ended in a 3-2 loss. But Woodruff, now pitching in the minors, would mostly scuffle in his final four starts, going 1-2 with an 8.85 ERA (19 runs in 19⅓ innings).
The wild card in the rotation proved to be swingman Brent Suter, who had shuttled from starting to relieving throughout the season. In essence, he filed the rotation spot vacated by Garza and did yeoman work, though usually in short doses. Suter’s longest outing was 5⅓ innings, but the Brewers went 5-0 in his five starts in September, during which he posted a 2.42 ERA.
This September, Suter is recovering from recent Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery, a notable blow to the rotation.
Chase Anderson capped the best season of his career with a strong final month, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA over six starts. The Brewers went 4-2 in those games, including a 5-3 victory in St. Louis on Sept. 29 that staved off elimination until the next day.
Zach Davies was a 17-game winner in 2017, with generous run support playing a big role in his success. He ran out of steam a bit in September, however, going 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA in five outings. The Brewers were 2-3 in those games.
Pitching was an issue during a damaging three-game sweep by the Reds from Sept. 4-6, with the Brewers allowing a total of 21 runs. The series finale was the swan song for Garza, who allowed five runs in 2⅔ innings in the 7-1 whipping by last-place Cincinnati.
The pitching staff bounced back in a big way in the next series in Chicago, paving the way for a three-game sweep that pulled the Brewers within two games of the first-place Cubs. The Brewers won the opener, 2-0, a victory marred by Nelson’s injury, then stomped the Cubs, 15-2, before capping the sweep, 3-1, as Davies (seven innings, one run) out-pitched Kyle Hendricks in a tense duel.
In going 6-3 over their next nine games, the Brewers dropped a game in the standings to the Cubs, falling three back and setting up a huge four-game series against Chicago at Miller Park from Sept. 21-24. In a raucous playoff-style atmosphere, each of the first three games went 10 innings, leaving it to the respective bullpens to decide the outcomes.
The Brewers lost the first two games, 5-3 and 5-4, and were in jeopardy of a third consecutive 10-inning loss before Travis Shaw’s dramatic two-run, walk-off homer against Cubs closer Wade Davis. The Brewers were over-matched in the series finale by Quintana, who out-pitched Anderson with a complete-game shutout, striking out 10 in a 5-0 victory.
That tough series ended the Brewers’ hopes of an NL Central crown and left them chasing Colorado in the wild-card race, a quest that would fall just short. This season, the NL wild-card picture is much more crowded, with five clubs within 3 1/2 games of each other entering Saturday. The Brewers held the second spot, a half-game behind St. Louis.
The Brewers have two starters throwing the ball well heading into the final month — right-hander Jhoulys Chacín (14-5, 3.53 after another victory Friday night) and lefty Wade Miley (2-2, 2.18 in 11 starts). Chacín has been the anchor of the rotation all season, and Miley missed most of the first half with groin and oblique injuries but has been a boost since returning.
Anderson (9-7, 4.04 entering his start Saturday night) has not approached his 2017 form and has had trouble keeping the ball in the park (league-high 28 home runs allowed). Davies (2-5, 5.23 in eight starts) has been out most of the season with shoulder and back woes but is returning Monday against the Cubs and hopes to take regular turns in September.
Rookie Freddy Peralta was a first-half surprise (4-1, 2.65 in seven starts) but faded after the break (2-3, 6.19 in seven starts) and currently is back with Class AAA Colorado Springs. Guerra followed the same pattern (3.23 ERA in first half; 6.55 in second half) and should be out of the rotation but is getting another start Sunday against Washington, basically by default.
It was unclear immediately after Gonzalez's acquisition where he fit the team's bullpen-oriented pitching scheme. To have any positive impact on the Brewers, he must reverse a long second-half slide that included a dreadful August: 1-4, 7.47 ERA in six outings.
"I know he's not having his best season this year but he knows how to pitch," Chacín said. "He has been in the playoffs, too. I feel like, especially this part of the season, in September, every game matters. It's more pressure. I feel like he's going to help us a lot."