Brewers: 5 reasons to believe, 5 reasons to doubt heading into second half of season

The final week of the first half of the 2018 season was a tough one for the Milwaukee Brewers and their fans, to say the least.

The Brewers departed on a trip to Miami and Pittsburgh flying high after a 6-1 home stand. They were a season-best 18 games over .500 (54-36) and had a 1½-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central.

But, after going 1-7 on that terrible trip, including six consecutive losses entering the all-star break, the Brewers dropped four games in the standings to the Cubs, falling 2½ back. Worse yet, they are five games back in the loss column to Chicago, no small gap at this stage of the season.

D'AMATO:Brewers fans, it's no time to panic

MLB: Standings | Wildcard standings | Scoreboard

The Brewers do sit in the top spot in the wild-card standings, however, so there is plenty to play for as they attempt to return to the postseason for the first time in seven years. There are eight teams within 5½ games of each other in the race for those two playoff berths, setting up a spirited competition in the second half.

With that backdrop, here are five reasons to believe the Brewers will be playing in October, and five reasons to doubt that will happen:

5 REASONS TO BELIEVE

Coming-out party for Aguilar

No one saw this coming. There seemed to be few at-bats to be had for Jesús Aguilar coming out of spring training, thanks to a logjam of first base candidates. But Eric Thames was lost for seven weeks with a thumb injury, Aguilar seized control of the position by becoming the team’s primary offensive force, and now Thames is more of an outfielder than a first baseman. We will see how much staying power Aguilar has over the full season but his first half was most impressive. He leads the NL with 24 home runs, a .621 slugging percentage and .994 OPS, and is not far off the pace with 70 RBI. Aguilar has become one of the most feared hitters in the league and is certain to be pitched around whenever possible the rest of the way.

A return to good health

The Brewers were operating more of a M.A.S.H. unit entering the break than a baseball team. They had seven players on the 10-day disabled list and three more on the 60-day DL, forcing manager Craig Counsell to field lineups dependent on too many backup players, with predictable results. But some of those players should be ready to join the fold when play resumes Friday, if not soon after, including Ryan Braun, Manny Piña and Thames, and possibly pitcher Junior Guerra. Getting high-leverage reliever Matt Albers back will be key as well. The Brewers did a commendable job of overcoming a never-ending series of injuries in the first half, with their organizational depth tested in a big way. They already have used 48 players, compared to 50 for all of last season. If things truly do even out, the Brewers are due a period of good health.

Cain, Yelich a dynamic duo

When the Brewers acquired Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich within hours of each other on Jan. 25, the goal was to make the team better offensively and defensively. Cain and Yelich met those expectations, earning all-star berths with solid all-around play. Cain (.393 OBP) and Yelich (.364 OBP) have gotten on base with regularity atop the lineup, setting the stage for hitters behind them, including Aguilar, to drive in runs. Yelich leads the club with 60 runs scored and Cain, who has worked pitchers like never before (47 walks), is second with 50. The Brewers’ outfield defense has been dramatically improved, including a major league-best 10 assists by Cain. It is safe to say that both players came as advertised.

Booster shot coming

Right out of the chute, the Brewers jumped into the deep waters of the free-agent pool, engaging the Baltimore Orioles in negotiations for slugging shortstop Manny Machado. With others also intent on acquiring Machado, including the now-favorite Dodgers as well as the Phillies, it remains to be seen if the Brewers had any real chance in this sweepstakes. But, if they’re willing to make a run at Machado, the Brewers obviously are thinking big as we head toward the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. They have holes to fill in their batting order, so the search for more offense will continue if Machado lands in L.A. Whether the Brewers also pick up an established starting pitcher, as the outside world has clamored for since the end of last season, remains to be seen. The Brewers have far more confidence in the starters on hand than others do. Their rotation’s 3.87 earned run average ranks fifth in the NL.

Home, sweet home

The Brewers have been one of the best home teams in the NL, posting a 30-18 record at Miller Park. That factor could loom large down the stretch, with the Brewers playing 15 of 26 games at home in September, including the final three against the downtrodden Detroit Tigers. Of course, the Brewers have to get to that final month in good shape to make the playoffs. If they do, the schedule should work in their favor with those 15 games at Miller Park.

5 REASONS TO DOUBT

Heavy workload for pen

The bullpen was easily the strongest area of the club in the first half, ranking first in the NL much of the way until slipping to third (3.33 ERA) at the end. But their workload has been heavy, and some relievers were leaking oil a bit in the final week, resulting in three walk-off wins by the Marlins and Pirates. It didn’t help that the schedule called for 21 games over the last 20 days, without a day off. The Brewers tend to play close games in victory, putting the pressure on high-leverage relievers to record the final outs with little leeway. The formula of getting five or six innings out of starters, then going to the bullpen, was a successful one for the most part in the first half. But it wouldn’t hurt for starters to go deeper into games and the offense to provide larger margins in the late innings.

Up-and-down offense

Scoring runs was difficult at times over the first half, though the Brewers rank 11th (426) in the majors. Injuries were a factor in diluting the lineup at times, but a home run-dependent team often had trouble sustaining rallies. Hitting in the clutch was a major issue. The Brewers batted .232 with runners in scoring position, ranking 25th in the majors. With the bases loaded, they hit a woeful .174, ranking next-to-last among the 30 clubs. It certainly didn’t help that the Brewers got little or no production out of three positions – shortstop, second base and catcher. Those spots generally were in the bottom half of the batting order, making it too easy for pitchers to cruise through them. The Brewers’ pitching staff doesn’t ask for extraordinary support. When scoring more than three runs, the Brewers were 42-8 in the first half.

Tough schedule

The Brewers will be tested in a big way coming out of the break, with a home stand against the charging Los Angeles Dodgers and the talented yet puzzling Washington Nationals, followed by an eight-game trip, with no days off, to San Francisco and Los Angeles. Considering how the Brewers staggered into the break against lesser opponents in Miami and Pittsburgh, they need to regroup and get headed in the right direction immediately. It won’t do any good to have that favorable home schedule in September if the Brewers don’t stay in the hunt over the next six weeks.

Cubs playing better

Unlike last year, when the Cubs didn’t get going until after the all-star break, they kicked it into gear the past two weeks, winning 12 of 15 to blow past the Brewers to forge the best record in the league (55-38). Over the next two weeks, while the Brewers face one of the toughest stretches of the season, the Cubs will play eight games against the Cardinals, who fired manager Mike Matheny before the break, including five at home. They also play four against Arizona, which is fighting for a playoff berth and is more cohesive than St. Louis. Chicago is 8-3 against the Brewers this season with three series remaining, including two at Wrigley (Aug. 14-15, Sept. 10-12).

Nelson returning later, not sooner

When right-hander Jimmy Nelson had major shoulder surgery last September, no timetable was put on his return because there is just no way to know with an injury that severe. There was speculation he might return before the break, but that turned out to be wildly optimistic. General manager David Stearns said recently he believes Nelson will pitch in the majors this season, but more likely not until September. That would be a huge boost for the club, so this might belong more in reasons to believe. But the Brewers must find a way to stay in contention until then. As expected, Nelson has worked his butt off during this long, arduous rehab, giving himself the best chance to pitch again this year. There’s nothing he can do but stay the course and see what happens. No matter how long it takes, the Brewers want Nelson back at full strength and pitching as he did before the unfortunate injury.