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Determining trade damage “will be hard”

How will the USDA estimate tariff damages to farmers? “We have analytical procedures that can give us some idea but it’s really going to be really hard,” says Carl Zulauf, Ohio State ag economist.

US Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue continues to say there will be help for farmers hurt by the trade disruptions, “I’ve kind of set a deadline for myself, not for anyone else, as Labor Day. That if we can’t have some resolution on trade by Labor Day then we need to look at mitigation procedures and protections for ag producers that really have a negative impact of trade on their bottom line.” Perdue made those comments in Georgia.

But, Zuloff says determining how trade disruptions affect prices – aside from a dozen other factors – will be VERY difficult, “We’ve never really been in this situation.”

Zulauf says if a damage number comes up as early as Labor Day, it’s going to have a lot of uncertainty around it. USDA could decide to give out partial payments then, and again later as more market impact is known.

~USDA