Relax, Brewers fans, there isn't really such a thing as a Home Run Derby curse

On Monday night, Jesus Aguilar will swing for the fences in Washington, D.C., as one of eight competitors in the Home Run Derby, an event that has grown to become as visible a part of Major League Baseball's all-star weekend as the game itself.

There is, however, some consternation over the event -- something built around Derby participants struggling in the second half. The "Home Run Derby Curse" has claimed many victims over the years, anecdotally. Given the number of top players who have hesitated to participate or outright refused in recent years, it's a reasonable conclusion to suspect that players feel similarly leery.

The bad news: yes, in many cases, players who compete in the Home Run Derby can't match the same level of production in the second half. The good news: that's got nothing to do with the Derby.

Time and time again, writers have tried to comfort fans with statistical analyses that demonstrate the silliness of the curse.

In simplest terms: most all-stars drop off in the second half of the season, simply because it's hard to maintain the pace they're on. Whether it's because of wear and tear, setting a bar that's higher than career expectations or simply fewer opportunities, the second half is almost never as productive as the first.

Perhaps the most palatable breakdown came last year from MLB.com's Mike Petriello, whose central point is that players selected to the all-star team who don't participate in the Derby actually have a steeper collective drop in numbers in the second half than those who do. 

Other outlets, such as FiveThirtyEight and SABR.org, have done similar deep dives demonstrating that most regressions fall right in line with what career norms suggest.

The concept of the "curse" has also been built around specific anecdotes, players such as Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson, Baltimore's Chris Davis, Detroit's Brandon Inge and Philadelphia's Bobby Abreu. These players, in particular, have had volatile career numbers, and one could reasonably have expected regression using career data. Pederson, a rookie in 2015 when he took second in the Home Run Derby, had precious little MLB data at that point at all.

In 2009, Milwaukee's Prince Fielder won the Home Run Derby and also experienced a dropoff, but not one that would really alarm anyone. In fact, he hit more homers after the Derby (24) than before (22) and did so in 55 fewer at-bats after the all-star break. His OPS did fall from 1.055 in the first half to .967 in the second and his slugging dropped from .614 to .590, but again, that's not a decline that would make someone see Prince as "cursed." Just "maybe slightly less amazing, but still amazing."

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who last year launched 47 total home runs (second most in history) and 23 in the first round alone, belted 30 first-half homers last year and had an OPS of 1.139. Sure, that dropped to .939 and 22 homers in 44 fewer plate appearances in the second half, but those numbers are still incredible, and Judge's first half pace was on track to be one of the greatest seasons in MLB history. It's virtually impossible to maintain.

In other words, there are plenty of examples of the "curse" being awfully limited in the second half, especially when you contemplate that players simply get fatigued over the course of the season.