The NBA draft has been a mixed bag for the Bucks. They need to pull out a winner Thursday.

Drafting is a risky business in the NBA. There's no such thing as a "sure thing" or a "can't miss" prospect. Every year there are examples of players with those labels struggling to make an impact in the league or failing to catch on altogether.

The Milwaukee Bucks, a small-market franchise that needs success in the draft rather than banking on free agency to build a strong team, have over the past decade or two been average at best when it comes to translating their picks into successful NBA players.

There were unforgettable misses in the first round — Joe Alexander and Yi Jianlian come quickly to mind. The Bucks also traded Drik Nowitzki, a pick they made on behalf of the Dallas Mavericks. Add in Patrick McCaw and Norman Powell, some recently jettisoned second-round picks who have gotten off to solid starts, and the Bucks have had their share of draft regrets.

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That said, heading into Thursday's draft the Bucks have put together nearly a decade's worth of generally positive results. Seven of Milwaukee's past nine drafts have yielded players who either consistently or for stretches proved themselves to be starting-caliber NBA players, which is a better result than might be expected when spinning the roulette wheel that is the draft.

With a core built around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, a new coach in Mike Budenholzer and a new arena on the horizon for next season, the Bucks are going to need to turn their No. 17 pick into another hit if they're going to continue to push up the standings. Now, maybe more so than any other time, is not the year for a draft dud as a capped-out team with little space on its roster tries to build a contending team that can capitalize on Antetokounmpo's meteoric rise.

"At the end of the day, we want a player that can come in and impact our roster," general manager Jon Horst said Tuesday. "It’s a valuable roster spot for us.”

Horst, while barely a year into being the Bucks' GM, has been with the team since 2008. He saw first-hand the miscalculation of taking Alexander in the 2008 draft. He was also around when the team found solid players in Brandon Jennings (2009), Larry Sanders (2010) and Tobias Harris (via trade in 2011), although for various reasons none of those players stuck with the Bucks for long.

In the six drafts since, though, the Bucks have found a bit more prolonged success. It hasn't been to the level of teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors or Boston Celtics, but the Bucks have found viable NBA talents in the middle of the first round and even a bona fide superstar.

John Henson (2012) has been a regular rotation piece and just turned in his best season. Jabari Parker (2014) has been limited by injuries, but when he's healthy there's no doubt he's a starting-caliber NBA player and scorer. Thon Maker (2016) has shown enough flashes in the regular-season and playoffs to conclude he still holds high upside as a stretch-5.

Of course, taking Antetokounmpo 15th in the 2013 draft was the crown-jewel of drafting success, the kind of selection that can change the fortunes of a franchise. Looking back at the underwhelming 2013 draft, there's little doubt Antetokounmpo would go first overall if there was a do-over.

Though the Bucks have had general recent success in the first round, things haven't been perfect.

The 2015 draft was a debacle. No. 17 pick Rashad Vaughn never lived up to his potential and was traded during his third season. To make matters worse, the Bucks traded for Greivis Vasquez, who due to injury played just 26 games the next season. In return, the Bucks sent a second-round pick that became Powell and a 2017 first-round pick that became OG Anunoby to the Toronto Raptors. Both players have flourished and have been part of Toronto's recent run of success.

Last year, the Bucks spent their first-round pick, again No. 17, on D.J. Wilson, a junior forward out of Michigan. Wilson played just 71 minutes as a rookie and is at risk of getting buried on the Bucks' bench again, especially if he doesn't show signs of improvement and Parker finds his way back in restricted free agency.

As well as the Bucks may have drafted in recent years — including snagging rookie of the year Malcolm Brogdon in the second round in 2016 — Milwaukee needs a hit this year.  Since taking Antetokounmpo, the Bucks haven't tapped the full potential of their first-round picks. Injuries have derailed Parker, Vaughn failed to launch, Maker has only shown flashes and Wilson has done more in the G League than in the NBA.

Horst said the Bucks want someone who can make an immediate impact. It's something Milwaukee hasn't had of late and finding that player could make a sizable difference over the next three seasons while Antetokounmpo is still under contract.

One man's opinion

Horst and his staff have been intentionally quiet this off-season when it came to hiring a coach as well as in their draft preparations. This year, the Bucks even shifted to keeping their prospect workouts private. That's fairly common in the NBA but was new for the Bucks.

That's all fine, although it adds more weight to Horst's words Tuesday when he made the team's first and last public comments to local reporters ahead of the draft. It was then that he discussed the draft being heavy with guards and wings in the middle of the first round and said the Bucks wanted a player who could make an early impact, shoot, defend, rebound and have positional size.

With that in mind, my projection for the draft is that the Bucks will try to move down.

Players such as Elie Okobo, Khyri Thomas and Donte DiVincenzo seem capable of checking those boxes as well or better than other available players at the 17 spot.

If the Bucks can move down and snag one of those players late in the first round — while adding a second-round pick, future pick, rotational veteran or get off a contract in the process — that would seem to be positive.

There's also a chance Mitchell Robinson could fit that description, but the high-upside 7-footer who didn't play in college last season might be too much of a risk for the Bucks to take considering Horst professes to want a player who may be more prepared to make an impact from Day 1.

NBA draft at a glance

When: 6 p.m. Thursday

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn

TV: ESPN, NBA TV

Bucks pick: First round, No. 17; no second-round pick

No. 1 pick: Phoenix Suns

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