Will Democrats' string of victories shake Republican confidence heading into fall races?

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

MADISON - For the third time this year, Wisconsin voters have handed Democrats key wins by margins that could chip away at the confidence Republicans gained from President Donald Trump's victory in the state less than two years ago.

In a pair of special elections Tuesday, voters in the 1st Senate District elected Democrat Caleb Frostman over GOP Rep. Andre Jacque of De Pere with a huge 20-point swing from Trump's 18-point winning margin in 2016.

In the 42nd Assembly District contest, Republicans kept the seat with a modest 6-point Democratic swing from Trump's 14-point edge to Republican Jon Plumer's 8-point win over opponent Ann Groves Lloyd.

Caleb Frostman (left), who won a seat in the 1st Senate District on Tuesday, talks to Sturgeon Bay voter Tom Fernandez ahead of the election.

The win in the 1st Senate District — the first for a Democrat in more than 40 years — follows a surprise win for Democrats in January of another long-held GOP Senate seat, and a sweeping statewide win by Supreme Court Justice-elect Rebecca Dallet in April.

"(The elections) are three pretty strong indicators of Democratic strength and over-performance in traditionally Republican Senate districts," said Charles Franklin, a pollster and political scientist at Marquette University Law School. "Dallet’s win is a less of a breaking of normal practice because we do have liberals on the court, but these two Senate districts have gone a long time without Democratic members. I don’t think you can discount that. Certainly, there is spin to try to, but I don't think you can discount that."

Frostman, former executive director of the Door County Economic Development Corp., said Wednesday the prospect of a "blue wave" in the fall helped on Tuesday.

"I don’t think it was a blue wave that won this for us, but I think the idea of a blue wave being possible gave folks that extra oomph," Frostman said. "I think the optimism is back and people believe we can win."

With Frostman's victory, Democrats are now within two seats of taking control of the state Senate should Frostman keep his seat in November when he must run for a full term.

Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau) acknowledged the difference in enthusiasm between Democratic and Republican voters this year but was skeptical it would mean big changes for the Legislature given the low turnout of Tuesday's races.

“To compare (the special elections) to what it's going to look like when you have a contentious U.S. Senate race (and the governor’s race) ... it's going to be a huge turnout for a midterm election," he said. "Compared to the (presidential races), I think it's just a different animal and I'm fine with that."

Assembly District 42 is just north of Madison and includes most of Columbia County and parts of Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake and Marquette counties.

Senate District 1 includes all of Door and Kewaunee counties and parts of Brown, Manitowoc, Calumet and Outagamie counties.

Movement toward Dems

Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said though the Democrats won just one of the two contests held Tuesday, both districts moved significantly in the Democratic direction from voting patterns in the 2016 presidential election.

"This builds on a pattern in special elections in Wisconsin since Trump's election. Democrats have not won all of the seats they attempted to flip, but their performance shows a clear shift in the center of gravity in the Democratic direction," Burden said. "The Republican majority in the Assembly might not be surmountable but taking the Senate is now within striking distance."

Franklin said, however, Republicans are correct to point to low turnout in the special elections and in the Supreme Court race when compared to what is likely in November.

"With higher turnout in November and two statewide partisan races for governor and the (U.S.) Senate, one would expect the bases for both parties to be relatively mobilized by their parties to get all of their votes out and so that may equalize some of this," Franklin said.

Alec Zimmerman, spokesman for the state Republican Party, said Plumer's comparable performance to Trump in 2016 and Walker in 2014 gives the GOP a good forecast for November.

"Jon Plumer not only won big, he achieved roughly the same percentage of support as President Trump and Gov. Walker — showing that regardless of the anger and energy on the left, Wisconsin Republicans are putting together winning campaigns that are in tune with the needs of hard-working families," he said. "We look forward to building off last night’s win for more victories in November.”

But Scot Ross, executive director for liberal advocacy group One Wisconsin Now, said Republicans should be more worried about what Jacque's performance means.

"If this trend continues, the Green Bay media market is where Scott Walker loses the election," he said, noting Walker had made six stops in the area since June 8.

Burden said given the outlook, "Republicans will need strong performances from Scott Walker and other leaders at the top of the ticket plus the benefits of incumbency to keep what they have in Wisconsin in 2019."

Frostman's and Plumer's wins Tuesday will be short-lived — both must win again in November to be seated for a full term.

Looking to the fall

Jacque said he expects his campaign to fare better in the fall with a different electorate.

"I do think we're going to get a different result in November when we're talking to a much larger group of folks," he said.

Plumer's win offers a breath of relief for Walker, who had been warning supporters of the blue wave coming his way ever since a January special election when Democrat Patty Schachtner earned a state Senate seat in western Wisconsin that had been held by a Republican for decades.

That district swung almost 30 points from Trump's 17-point margin in 2016 to the Democrats' 10-point victory in January.

Plumer did not return a phone call seeking comment. His opponent Ann Groves Lloyd said in an interview that she sees Tuesday's election as "a dry run" for November's contest.

"It’s a gerrymandered district," she said about the loss. "It was created to make sure Republicans got elected and it's worked for eight years now, but we made some significant headway."

The leaders of the winners' respective parties each said their new members signaled an electoral shift in their favor.

Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling (D-La Crosse) said Frostman's win "represents a generational shift in Wisconsin politics."

"The results of this election can’t be ignored. The last time the 1st Senate District was represented by a Democrat, Gerald Ford was president, techies were anxiously waiting for VHS tapes to hit the shelves and the Vikings were in a Super Bowl," she said.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester) said in a tweet that Plumer's victory is evidence that the blue wave is just a "trickle" in the state Assembly.

Fitzgerald said a general election must be held before anyone can draw any kind of conclusion about lasting voting shifts.

In special elections across the country since Trump became president, 25 legislative and congressional seats have flipped from red to blue, according to Franklin. Just five have gone the other way.

Overall, 44 legislative seats in 14 states have flipped to Democratic control since Trump's election, according to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

The special elections will fill the seats left vacant after former Sen. Frank Lasee (R-De Pere) and former Rep. Keith Ripp (R-Lodi) stepped down in December to join Walker’s administration.

Walker at first didn’t order special elections but did so in March after losing a lawsuit brought by voters. The lawsuit was paid for and litigated by a group led by Holder, and Democrats accused Walker of stalling out of fear that Schactner's victory would be replicated.

On Tuesday, Holder claimed victory in a series of tweets.

"Scott Walker was willing to deprive his own constituents of representation rather than let them make their voices heard," Holder said. "But we didn't stop fighting. - and we won't."

Craig Gilbert and Max Bayer, reporters for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, contributed to this report.