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NFL DRAFT
NFL Draft

18 questions leading into the 2018 NFL draft

Nate Davis
USA TODAY

The 2018 NFL draft begins Thursday night. But before the Browns kick things off, here are 18 questions that will be answered over the seven-round "annual player selection meeting."

The 2018 NFL draft will take place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

1. How many quarterbacks will go in the first round?

Wyoming's Josh Allen, USC's Sam Darnold, Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and UCLA's Josh Rosen are virtual Round 1 shoo-ins. All could go in the top 10 (or even top five), and it's possible some combination will be the first trio picked first, second and third since Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith in 1999. If Louisville's Lamar Jackson also hears his name called Thursday, this draft would also be the first since 1999 with five first-round passers (Daunte Culpepper and Cade McNown were the other two taken 19 years ago). And if just one more signal caller sneaks in — maybe a team decides it really wants that fifth-year option on Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph — this would become the first draft since the famed 1983 class (it included John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino) with six first-round QBs.

2. What other QBs bear watching?

Rudolph will likely get picked early Friday. He's got the size (6-5, 235), production — albeit in a spread offense — accuracy and demeanor teams look for. Richmond's Kyle Lauletta, Western Kentucky's Mike White and Washington State's Luke Falk are among other compelling developmental prospects. Most of them (with Jackson) have been linked to the Patriots as a possible replacement to Jimmy Garoppolo as Tom Brady's understudy.

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3. What will the Browns do?

After picking thrice in 2017's first round, including No. 1 overall selection Myles Garrett, Cleveland currently owns the first and fourth overall picks this year and has three more in Round 2. New GM John Dorsey is holding his cards close, but the smart money suggests that he'll take Allen or Darnold at the top and, barring a trade, will add either Penn State running back Saquon Barkley or North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb at No. 4. This roster already feels far superior to the one that went 0-16 last year, but Dorsey also has to replace retired left tackle Joe Thomas and will likely monitor the cornerback and defensive tackle markets, too.

4. Why is the Giants' pick so important?

A lot of intrigue here. Whatever GM Dave Gettleman does will have a cascading effect on the rest of the first round. This will be the first time the franchise has selected No. 2 since getting Lawrence Taylor in 1981. No pressure. New York clearly has holes, and Gettleman has to be thinking about the future beyond quarterback Eli Manning, who's now 37. Still, a year removed from a playoff berth, it would seem Barkley or Chubb would best check the boxes to allow Manning and Co. the opportunity to be competitive while also adding a future cornerstone. But if Gettleman opts for a quarterback to let him learn behind a two-time Super Bowl MVP, who could really fault the strategy given how rarely this franchise is in position to get such a player?

5. Which teams are likeliest to trade? 

The Jets and Bills have already made moves up the board this offseason, while the Patriots picked up an extra first-round pick by sending Brandin Cooks to the Rams (New England joined Cleveland and Buffalo as teams with multiple Round 1 selections). Bills GM Brandon Beane seemed to be running a script out of the Eagles' 2016 Carson Wentz playbook when he swapped tackle Cordy Glenn and the 21st pick for Cincinnati's slot (No. 12). But if Beane has one more move up the ladder remaining to potentially get a quarterback, he has yet to show his hand. The Cardinals, who pick 15th, are the other team in obvious need of a young passer but not in a good spot to get one. The Giants, Browns (No. 4), Broncos (5th) and Colts (6th) might all be tempted to move down with the right offer.

6. What kind of statement will Saquon Barkley make?

Ki-Jana Carter, a Nittany Lion like Barkley, was the last running back picked first overall — back in 1995 (and Carter's injury-curtailed career served as a warning). No back has gone as high as No. 2 since Reggie Bush in 2006 — a plateau Barkley, who has strong backing in draft circles as the best player available, is more likely to reach. But given the splashes recent top 10 picks like Todd Gurley (2015), Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Leonard Fournette (2017) have made, an every-down talent like Barkley seems virtually guaranteed of being no worse than a top-five selection.

"Whatever team drafts him, you've got yourself a guy," LSU running back Derrius Guice told USA TODAY Sports when asked about Barkley. "He deserves all the love and attention he's getting."

7. Which RB will be taken after Barkley?

Guice will likely find himself in contention with Georgia's Sony Michel and Nick Chubb to be the second back off the board. All seem to be hovering right around the late-first/early-second round area. USC speedster Ronald Jones and San Diego State star Rashaad Penny, who led the country with 2,248 rush yards in 2017, appear to be solid second rounders.

8. Will teams invest heavily in receivers?

Don't be surprised to see wideouts struggle to command draft respect. Route running is becoming a lost art at the college level, where simplified offenses continue to "spread." In the last three years, first rounders Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett have been non-factors. This year's crop doesn't appear especially promising with none projected to go in the top 10. Alabama's Calvin Ridley does know his way around a route tree, and that could make him the first chosen. But teams may be more reluctant to go after big-bodied "basketball players on grass."

9. What's a guard worth?

In the last two decades — with the exception of Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack in 2013 — no guards have gone in the top 10. (Leonard Davis, picked second in 2001, and Brandon Scherff, who went fifth in 2015, were college tackles who transitioned to NFL guards, but the point remains.) Notre Dame's Quenton Nelson is widely viewed as one of this draft's three best players and special enough that he'll probably punch a top-10 ticket.

10. Are interior offensive linemen overtaking tackles?

Unlike guards, tackles have historically been coveted with premium picks. Not this year, though. Nelson will almost certainly be the first blocker taken and could be followed by Iowa center James Daniels and/or UTEP guard Will Hernandez. This year's best pure tackle prospects, Notre Dame's Mike McGlinchey and UCLA's Kolton Miller, could break into that mix or might find themselves lucky to get a first-round call. Texas' Connor Williams and Georgia's Isaiah Wynn are both college tackles likely to go the route of Davis and Scherff by moving inside.

Why the apparent shift? It's probably a combination of factors. Tackles by nature are rare physical specimens, but spread offenses are also hurting their development (remember Jason Smith, Greg Robinson and Luke Joeckel?). Even a Hall of Fame-caliber player like Thomas never managed to sufficiently elevate those around him. However guards may see their value grow as interior blocking — against beasts like Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh — becomes more prioritized on offenses relying on short-area passing attacks.

11. Is there a new-age defensive position emerging?

Recent first-round picks like Mark Barron (2012) and Deone Bucannon (2014) entered the NFL as safeties before making their marks as athletic, if undersized, linebackers. Tyrann Mathieu doesn't really have a pure position but displays defensive MVP-caliber impact when healthy. The 2018 draft features two players, Florida State's Derwin James and Alabama's Minkah Fitzpatrick, who could be top-10 selections due to hybrid abilities. James classifies more easily as a safety, and Fitzpatrick looks more like a corner. Yet both can roam deep sections of the field, man the slot, cover tight ends or enter the box to defend the run or blitz. The price tag on that kind of versatility should become apparent Thursday.

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12. Which linebacker goes first?

Georgia's Roquan Smith and Virginia Tech's Tremaine Edmunds could find themselves taken in the top 10. The first one picked will likely boil down to pure preference. Smith skews smaller (6-1, 236) but can cover a lot of ground and blitz. Teams that run 4-3 schemes (49ers, Bills and, now, the Colts leap to mind) will likely assign more value to him. Edmunds, just 19, is a 6-5, 253-pounder who also has great range (despite his size) and will likely develop into a bigger factor as a pass rusher. He should provide more scheme versatility than Smith but may struggle to excel quickly.

13. What will the Patriots do?

After exporting Cooks, New England will now pick 23rd, 31st, 43rd, 63rd and 95th in the draft's first two days. Who knows what Bill Belichick will do — though history suggests he'll package at least one of those selections, very likely to secure a high pick in 2019. And though Belichick doesn't want to talk about filling needs, logic would dictate strong consideration for a left tackle, pass rusher, cornerback and, yes, a potential replacement for Brady.

14. What other QBs could meet their replacements?

Brady will turn 41 in August. But he's hardly the only franchise passer facing his NFL mortality. Drew Brees is 39, Manning is 37 and Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers are both 36. Even Joe Flacco is 33 and coming an injury-marred season when he struggled extensively. Any could soon find a confident twentysomething swaggering into their quarterback room.

15. What about special teams?

Central Florida corner Mike Hughes and Texas A&M receiver Christian Kirk might be first rounders based on résumés at their natural positions. But both could see their value get a bump because they're excellent in the return game. Also keep an eye on Washington's Dante Pettis. The 6-1, 186-pounder is a capable receiver, but his real value may be in the third phase after he established a NCAA record with nine career punt returns for TDs.

16. Will there be another run on tight ends?

Last year, three tight ends were picked in the first round for the first time since 2002. But prior to 2017, only two were taken on Day 1 in the previous six drafts combined. South Carolina's Hayden Hurst, who will be 25 when the season starts, and Dallas Goedert, who has something to prove coming out of South Dakota State, have the skills to instantly upgrade an offense. But both project as borderline first rounders.

17. Which defensive line flavor will prevail?

A lot of quality defensive linemen — not necessarily edge rushers — are available, most offering distinctive styles. Washington's 6-4, 347-pound Vita Vea could be a dominant nose tackle ... but he must improve as a pass rusher. Alabama's Da'Ron Payne and Stanford's Harrison Phillips appear best suited to shutting down run lanes and collapsing pockets on four-man fronts. Florida's Taven Bryan has been compared to J.J. Watt (yes, that's a bit much) and offers versatility and relentless effort. And, leveraging a low center of gravity, Michigan's Maurice Hurst (6-2, 292) could be a gap-shooting interior disruptor, whose impact could be just a notch below similarly built players like Donald and Geno Atkins.

18. What does Bradley Chubb bring to the table?

This draft appears light on top-notch pass rushers, but Chubb's about as good as they come. Denver's Von Miller even opined on the Wolfpack star, saying: "He’s Khalil Mack and Von Miller put together." Quite a bar for the 6-4, 269-pounder. But a player who's as relentless at chasing running backs as quarterbacks (and their hand towels) could be every bit as good as Garrett even if Chubb won't command that No. 1 overall slot.

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Follow Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis

 

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