Market News

Minneapolis wheat leads complex modestly higher

 

Soybeans were modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Contracts saw a bounce off the recent lows, expecting more solid demand. The supply side of the market is keeping fundamentals neutral and if corn planting delays continue, it’d likely mean higher U.S. bean acreage. The USDA’s most recent guess for both soybeans and corn was just short of 90 million acres. Soybean meal was up, following beans, and oil was narrowly mixed in consolidation trade. Beans continue to keep an eye on trade talks with China. Brazil’s supplies have gotten tighter and prices have moved higher, but the tensions with Beijing may prevent a big uptick in business.

Corn was modestly lower on commercial and technical selling. 3% of this year’s corn crop is planted, slower than average, but parts of the Cornbelt are expected to make at least some progress this week. The slow planting pace will become a bigger factor if it lasts into May. The “drop dead” date for corn planting varies by area and seed type. Ethanol futures were higher. Japan has reportedly agreed to import up to 95 million gallons of U.S. ethanol. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday. Corn’s also watching trade developments with China, including a new proposed anti-dumping rule against U.S. sorghum.

The wheat complex was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Minneapolis led the way, supported by the slow U.S. spring wheat planting pace. Spring wheat growing areas of Canada have also experienced delays. The U.S. winter crop is mostly in fair to very poor shape, but the bearish supply and demand fundamentals limit the upside for Chicago and Kansas City. Some forecasts do have an improved chance of rain in the southwestern U.S. Plains, but not enough to break drought conditions. Global crop conditions generally look good. The current marketing year for wheat runs through the end of May 2018, with new supply and demand numbers out May 10th.